Biggest Stock Market Bubble Ever?

[@denny5564]

I've learned over the last 40 years that whenever I sell I lose. And that the market over time always goes up.

[@method341]

That's why they say time in the market beats trumping the market

[@wayneguy6043]

Except for bed bath beyond

[@NguyenSophiaa]

Billionaires collect $$$ , the best way to play low buy high sell and run away no greedy, come back when it low or crack and buy more

[@geetpeetnsnsnjj2192]

That's beacuse world population has been increasung but that trend especially in teh developed markets is not true anymore and worrying is decreasing and so will stock markets.

[@jon34153]

Buy and hold.

[@benportman]

Comments are getting absolutely destroyed by spam, this isn't even a crypto channel

[@orome9793]

It's all bot accounts plugging the next crypto scam.

[@tomorrowland2684]

Every financial video has the same issue with comments. Its KZbin that needs to stop this but how would they know

[@wesley5nipes]

That's the crappy byproduct of the technological world we've created. It sucks. I can't even access the internet on my phone anymore without half the page being banner ads and ads interrupting what I'm trying to read every two sentences. Then you've got all this bot spamming everywhere you go. Super lame.

[@nighttrain1236]

Could the intensity of crypto spam on youtube comments be a bubble indicator?

[@JP-wo4ic]

@@nighttrain1236No, but the price point tells you everything you need to know 😅

[@iainawatson]

I can't tell you how refreshing Ramin's sober analysis is compared to the aggressive, laddish euphoria of the most popular personal finance channels.

[@krisnah7]

Hands down the best

[@MagicNash89]

Euphoria? Or like, total pessimism/it's over/short everything crowd

[@sebfox2194]

Personally, I prefer Ramin's drunk analysis. It's not as useful, but it's more entertaining.

[@TomsPersonalFinance]

I guess they're all American channels?

[@marypricehilton449]

Agreed. I can’t abide all that bull.

[@MaxPell-t3l]

“Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.” - Lawrence Fields, The Big Short

[@tonywarcus5500]

The spam issue needs to be sorted ASAP as it is a huge distraction. Excellent analysis in the video as usual but until recently there’d be a few thoughtful contributions in the comments as well.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @tonywarcus5500 I've run our spam filter and deleted & blocked the crypto stuff. Thanks! Ramin

[@Andygb78]

I have some money to invest, but I know that the stock market is an intimidating place for a beginner such as myself & I don't want to make any mistakes and lose money. Is there an advisor on Facebook someone can recommend?

[@alexwade9921]

An essential aspect of all previous bubbles was that most people didn’t think there was a bubble - until it burst.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @alexwade9921 I think that it's a bit more subtle. Since Robert Shiller's CAPE measure has been around we have known when we're in a bubble but that doesn't tell you much. That's because overvaluation isn't a good timing signal i.e. it doesn't tell you _when_ the bubble will pop. And markets can stay expensive (or cheap) for a very long time. Thanks, Ramin.

[@alexwade9921]

@ - What’s the longest that they ever stayed heavily expensive?

[@robbietorkelsonn8509]

"The change in S&P 500 annual returns has been increasing each decade over the last 150 years." It's not whether it's going to crash, but how long the crash is going to last. After the pandemic, the market was back in one year, going steadily up after that. Investing for 10 years is still investing for 10 years. There are two things that could really accelerate the market: - trading bots .. now with faster computers and AI - more open platforms ... more and more people don't have to go through the bank, cutting out the middle man Notice that it's older people screaming that the market doesn't make sense anymore. No it doesn't. Did you really think that being in crypto wasn't going to desensitize people to higher risk and fluctuation. No matter how volatile the stock market is today, people are used to seeing much much worse.

[@alexwade9921]

@@robbietorkelsonn8509 - People might be desensitised to risk, but in the end the market has to remain rational. In the long term the value of a company must relate to a combination of it’s assets and it’s ability to generate revenue and profits.

[@rika-chan]

as someone who works in tech I can only see AI as a bunch of smoke and mirrors. there are limited use cases (e.g. medical, language heavy jobs), but the current shoehorning of chatbots into everything really doesn't seem to be driving any core value to me then again last time I said this it was about bitcoin and I sold back when it was worth a few hundred dollars

[@steve.k4735]

Try watch Teslas A.I in 1. The Optims robot when it recovers from a slip and 2. Version 13 FSD dealing with a hours drive in New York rush hour traffic without a single human intervention ... both are Neural Nets both can be seen in real world action .. you can SEE with your own eyes what Neural Nets can do, if you can`t extrapolate that power forwards 5 years (for A.I not necessarily Tesla) , then you will again do the mental equivalent of selling your Bitcoin.

[@sebfox2194]

Isn't the metal equivalent of selling bitcoin, selling gold?

[@DrFod]

Bitcoin is still useless other than for speculation and illegal activities.

[@Mmm-y5w8o]

It’s just going to lead to loss of jobs which will lead to more inequality Will it increase productivity probably But we are creating a world that we are not designed for, we are designed for social interaction Not blind trust in complex computer programs

[@domtaylor2271]

I also work in tech (one of the biggest ones outside of FAANG) as a software engineer and I disagree. Even if it doesn't improve any further I think it's a game changer for our industry. I hear a lot of cope from SWE colleagues, but I think it's gonna be big, personally

[@wayneguy6043]

tell me the exact day so I can sell everything the day before

[@sambaker2611]

Beware of crypto comments - these are spam and was not mentionned in the video by ramin. Do ramin a favour for christmas and help report these :)

[@chris021able]

I reported all of them that I could see but there were loads.

[@AnonyMous-xv4ig]

It's those comments talking about some project starting with "X ", right

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @sambaker2611 and @chris021able and @AnonyMous-xv4ig sorry about the spam. I've run our filter and it has taken out the crypto stuff and the fake adviser threads. Thanks, Ramin

[@kw8757]

@@sebfox2194…….after it crashes to $3.00!!!

[@NotThatKraken]

If the price of everything is rising rapidly, that’s not really a bubble. That’s hyperinflation. It would be interesting to see stock market and real estate prices vs. the price of a basket of commodities like gold, oil, and wheat to understand how much the bubble is euphoria and how much is a dropping value of money.

[@MrDuncl]

True. I was comparing the price of my parents house to the BoE inflation figures and the BoE is out by a factor of seven. Millionaire just means moderately well off these days.

[@livingart2576]

Everything seems crazy the moment. The stock market, real estate, gold, bitcoin, etc are all really expensive. It’s hard knowing what to invest in at this time.

[@iainawatson]

UK stocks seem ludicrously cheap right now. I had a lump sum to invest in an ISA and couldn't bring myself to put it all in the US market at once during this frenzy. Some of the defensive dividend stocks of companies as old as the earth itself seem almost too good to be true in terms of yield, but I do understand why they've historically been so unfashionable.

[@Caerdan]

As long as it's not that crypto all the bots are spamming the comments section with.

[@VoiceOfThe]

This is the trap many (including myself) have previously fallen into. You procrastinate, hesitate & dither to buy, sitting on the sidelines waiting for a ‘better’ time to get in. There’s a dip… now’s the time… or maybe I should wait till the markets go lower you tell yourself. Yes, that’s sensible, it’s going to drop lower. It doesn’t. It snaps back. Like this week. You then justify to yourself you can’t buy now & so it goes on and you do nothing. In the time you wait for that golden moment and 30% crash that’s always just around the corner that never actually comes you miss out on returns. I listened to the experts in 2023 saying a correction / crash was nailed on, I held back, ended up missing out on 17% returns for that period. Approximately 75% of the time markets drift upwards. The biggest impact on your long-term gains is you and how you behave emotionally. Time in the market rather than timing the market.

[@robertbutwell4272]

@@iainawatson Although the FTSE is flatlining.

[@robertbutwell4272]

@@VoiceOfThe I guess that's why people drip feed into the market, ok if you're young not so good if time is not on your side in you 50s or60s.

[@MukeshSharmabhatt9]

Rule of market that I use: 1. Keep long term perspective 2. Volatility is permanent 3. People, companies, funds will keep pouring money into market 4. Keep DCA into good companies 5. Don't be a trader unless you have experience 6. Don't over diversify and don't invest in companies you don't understand the business 7. Above all , have Patience With above, no bubble or trouble can put you back, you always win

[@MagicNash89]

All good, except this is one is not needed - "3. People, companies, funds will keep pouring money into market" - do not count on this, see stock market after the Great Depression 1929 - end of the 1950s - no overall growth from peak, huge falls, most importantly - low liquidity in the worst of times when having money itself was a problem).

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

I question your rational 3): People companies, funds will keep pouring money into the market. Yes, but at what price? I also question 60: Don't over diversify and don't invest in companies that you don't understand. While I'm partially on board with the second part of that statement, I can't understand how one can be overly diversified.

[@timetraveller3063]

Or simply just buy the S&P 500 and/ Nasdaq 100 and stick to it

[@djayjp]

Your conclusion: 🤣. Ah, like the 10 years of DCA'ing with zero return between 2000 and 2010...? Several other such lost decades have preceded it as well.

[@deeptoot1453]

@@davidbrayshaw3529 Having t many stocks asset classes for no reaosn then being financially inept. Law of diminishing returns. How many stocks/companies can you realistically keep track of? At what point woul it be better to just buy an ETF rather than a bunch of individual companies.

[@nic47531]

Are we saying the whole market is in a bubble or just the mag 7. How do the value stocks, financials/energy look? Ive been preferring us equity income more lately.

[@RalphWu55]

At about 1:30 he says the P/E ratio is high for the typical (median) stock as well, it's not just the mega caps

[@SeekingAlfalfa]

From the comments here and elsewhere, I would say I'm not impressed with A.I..

[@complicatedchimp]

Long story short...no one knows what's going to happen. If you're young don't worry about it keep investing. If you're older think about worst case scenario and plan accordingly.

[@wadeboggs5163]

"AI is overvalued in the short term and undervalued in the long term." Demis Hassabis early 2024

[@RHill40]

Demis Hassabis doesn't know.

[@wadeboggs5163]

@ If he doesn't know, who does?

[@realruppert351]

Thanks for the great video. A perfect and orginised reflexion on the crossroad we are at at the moment. Was looking for this measured and argumented video in the middle of all that noise ! ❤

[@Pensioncraft]

You're very welcome @realruppert351

[@theAmateurInvestorstory]

look at 5:33 Is there such a thing as a passive index bubble?

[@cumbrianrambler7715]

Your bedside manner is impressive. I know nothing of finance but want to campaign for debt and finance and tax education in schools.

[@thambu19]

Would you consider the BlackBerry (BB) breakout to be real after a year of accumulation?

[@mwscuba]

hoping to retire in 3 years at 57 and currently have 3 years worth of cash in a money market fund and the rest in global tracker funds but with only 45% weighted to the US, who knows how it will go and end up but I'm comfortable with my plan

[@djayjp]

If forward PE isn't sufficient, then we have the PEG ratio. I wonder what that is for SPX...?

[@liammullan2197]

I'm not sure the consensus view is "What bubble?". I seem to be deluged with podcasts, youtube vids etc of people talking about extreme valuations and imminent crashes. Obviously the algorithms are tuned to me but nevertheless I think "consensus" is a bit strong.

[@palmtree-e2l]

The consensus Ramin mentioned isn't his own personal view but based on survey data. You can't go by KZbin clickbait videos to determine what the consensus is. Obviously content created creaters are going to say we're in a massive bubble which is going to pop imminently because fear sells.

[@jabberwockytdi8901]

On the other hand click baiting "finance influencers" are always preaching "crash baby crash" and that's hardly representative of a consensus either, that's not about you and the algo , that's about a certain type of "content creator" always looking for sensational video titles to drive views and income.

[@russellwild8329]

how do you get exponential profit growth, people need to buy stuff to create profits, there is a limit

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @russellwild8329 there are limits to growth while we're planet-bound. However, some technological innovations could keep growth going for a while despite the population stabilizing if we become more productive. Ultimately, we won't be Earth-bound and then the limits to growth will be removed e.g. if you look at the Kardashev scale we're really just getting started (assuming we make it!). Thanks, Ramin

[@Tystros]

@@Pensioncraft great reply! I do find it quite amusing to see you base investment decisions on the Kardashev scale, but I completely agree.

[@michaelkingy355]

5:33 I have a question. Is there such a thing as a passive index bubble?

[@davidgray3321]

I think incontinent pant sales will soar shortly, certainly at some stage in 2025.

[@Pensioncraft]

Nice tip @davidgray3321 I'll get stocked up! Thanks, Ramin.

[@X5493-c7p]

LOL thanks I needed a laugh in these crazy times

[@Mmm-y5w8o]

Shit I think your right

[@davidr7819]

😂

[@simonbaush6200]

Thank you for yet another balanced outlook.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @simonbaush6200

[@CarlMargaret]

Thanks for the forecast! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?

[@Chicken-yu1do]

Thank you Ramin 🙏

[@Pensioncraft]

You are very welcome @Chicken-yu1do

[@dcphillips1991]

I think one difference in some of the largest companies now is the amount of revenue/profit they generate for the amount spent on capex/opex is massive compared to what where the biggest companies in the past. Companies that have a low capex and can easily increase/decrease opex as necessary are ina much better position than those companies that need huge amounts of capex and consequently can't cut opex as it is required to run the assets.

[@TRL2303]

The other thing is - If we are in a bubble, and its being driven mainly by AI, then maybe its only the AI related companies/stocks that will pop and not affect the rest of the markets?

[@JBrooks0043]

Taking that Trade212 sponsor hand over fist 😂

[@future62]

I'm def not selling but I will prob be staying away from the megacaps next year. Rebalance towards small/mid cap and dividend equities.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @future62 I've got a tilt towards small caps in the US and UK. The UK one is doing terribly the US one is doing pretty well. Thanks, Ramin.

[@pataleno]

I’m 100% in stocks Global index funds and 4 years away from retirement. So thinking of moving into a 60/40 Stocks/Bonds. If the market does crash I can continue working so can stomach losses. It’s the time lost that I’m Worried about.

[@chinablue427]

Which Global Fund do you invest in, in your main portfolio? I missed that Video clip.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @chinablue427 it's a cheap FTSE Developed World tracker. My choice of DM was simply because that was cheaper than the FTSE All World tracker that's available on Vanguard UK's platform. Thanks, Ramin.

[@latitudepost]

Good video Ramin. I think diversification is very important - especially now in this situation. I think the investors who are the most vulnerable right now are those who are fully exposed to all those hot darling US stocks that are currently crushing it. They will have their heads handed to them on a plate in due course - mark my words.

[@Chris-ty7fw]

You say the S&P 500 return is about 9% per year over what time period. I normally hear 10% and a quick google gives me a different range of figures depending on the time period used.

[@JensN113]

Who cares if it is 9 or 10, it is certainly not 15

[@VoiceOfThe]

Depends whether you factor inflation into the figures. 7-10% is a good gauge .

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Chris-ty7fw Dimson, Marsh & Staunton's annual global returns yearbook is a good source of total returns over the long-term. They give the following: - US 1900-2022 - Equities 9.5% nominal 6.4% real - Bonds 4.7% nominal 1.7% real - Bills 3.4% nominal 0.4% real - Inflation 3.4% - UK 1900-2022 - Equities 9.1% nominal 5.3% real - Bonds 5.1% nominal 1.4% real - Bills 4.5% nominal 0.9% real - Inflation 3.6%

[@luciusdole3029]

Nervous about the trading 212 promotion. No idea what the ongoing costs are - vital to avoid percentage charges for holding assets. Perhaps something for Ramin to include in a future discussion. Overall, not a bad discussion though. But I think it could be helpful to imagine/consider a wide range of scenarios (including the protectionism and inflation shocks and the unsustainability of debt generally), and develop that discussion into what strategies might be good long term sleep at night approaches.

[@raymondkassay3610]

Actually when you take out the MAG 7 stocks, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 16. I guess you forgot to mention that part. Also if its an everything bubble, then there is no bubble lol

[@Gjudxdkjyzddhjnr7091]

Ramin, it seems that tech and AI are in something of a bubble. How about other sectors such as space economy where many (growth stocks not yet in profit) have quadrupled in market cap this year? I would say these companies are in the First generation products/ R&D phases and will become giants as the space economy triples over the next 10 years

[@gugli_elmo]

In case of a lump sum to invest in the US, an alternative to a factor-based value ETF could be an equal-weight ETF, which distributes the sum across all stocks, also emphasizing the last 400 stocks of the well-known S&P 500 index. It would be interesting to analyze the historical P/E ratio of this index, which is highly correlated with the S&P 400 mid-cap, to determine whether the underlying assets are indeed not overvalued.

[@ciaranirvine]

As a grouchy old coder in his 50s I remain convinced LLMs are a total technology dead-end and basically long-term worthless. As the internet increasingly gets flooded with incorrect, badly-written and hallucinatory "AI" content then the quality of the LLM input goes down - an escalating GIGO feedback loop. But just as in the old DotBomb the euphoria _could_ last for years yet. And the handful of companies who do manage to make something actually useful and become tech behemoths 20 years hence, are probably companies most people have never heard of right now.

[@hurry2011]

Have you tried LLMs as a coder? Have you tried CLINE, Aider or any of the other tools? Hallucination is a solvable problem.

[@caryphillips4885]

@@hurry2011 He's saying the majority of the money is going to run dry before they figure out how to make it profitable.

[@method341]

LLMs have given me so much value. The effects are going to compound for sure.

[@kaya051285]

As a slightly younger non computer engineer, i would argue forums were and still are better 'AI' If I want to create something innovative or have a problem I want to help with, I join specialist forums where real humans discuss and think over problems for basically free as its their hobby I've designed real world equipment just discussing it on forums So far even the very best LLMs don't come close to free forums apart from maybe speed but being really speedy at getting not great results isnt that attractive

[@Tystros]

have you seen o3? It's not "just an LLM" any more.

[@kwest84]

My current view is that we have another 6-12 months before the US gets a recession, and that's when we get a global stock market and crypto crash. But we could very well see a blow off top before that, so I'll remain invested but with stop losses in place.

[@Dvidtv]

What’s your thoughts on Biotech?

[@jaaguitar]

I looked for an ETF that let you bet on biotech scientific work in the Cambridge area UK. Wasn't able to find one.

[@stinkees696]

The journey from despair to enlightenment in the AI chart feels very real to me. I see AI providing advanced analysis to everyday businesses, which is where significant productivity gains can be achieved. After working for over 50 years, I believe there is still plenty of room for improvement in nearly every area. There is a great deal of inefficiency, and eliminating even 20% of it would be a remarkable achievement. Just as the internet expanded opportunities for everyday traders by offering a much larger market for buying and selling, AI holds the potential to revolutionize productivity similarly. So I don't expect AI to be a fad but instead an indispensable tool.

[@pietrovalsecchi1680]

Hello Ramin, Will a recession inevitably mean the Fed will have to cut rates? If so, what are your thoughts on holding US long-term treasuries and TLT etf given a potential upcoming recession? Thank you for all your videos.

[@obnoxiaaeristokles3872]

You are right, the US economy is doing well right now, much better than the rest of the world that is in recession. Which is why the US is actually not doing great, because it relies on its products being sold in foreign markets and on its stocks being bought by foreign investors who will have to sell much of their liquid equity to sustain their illiquid equity. And since the USD is getting so expensive, this downwards spiral will accelerate.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @obnoxiaaeristokles3872 the thing to bear in mind is that 59% of S&P 500 revenue (according to FactSet) is generated in the United States. This figure always surprises me - I assume that US companies are global but in fact it's quite a closed ecosystem. Thanks, Ramin.

[@andykostynowicz]

Wars are a great boost to the US economy. Often supplying both sides. It boosts innovation which trickles down through the economy

[@JohnJones-k9d]

Borrowing $1trillion every 100 days a great econ9my?

[@obnoxiaaeristokles3872]

@@Pensioncraft Thanks for the reply. I think that 59% is not much when considering how much stocks drop when quarterly earnings miss by just a few percentage points. If the foreign 41% generate just 25% less revenue next year, then that's already a revenue drop by around 10%. I don't think that's farfetched. A lot of the big stocks are held by retail investors based on the premise that they will always grow, but once they miss, we see a rapid unloading. In summary, there are just too many issues that can pop the bubble right now. In many European countries the job market has cooled down so much that it's likely we'll see a significant increase in unemployment, even for professionals. Many of them will then have to sell equity to pay their bills and reduce consumption until the crisis is over.

[@stevegeek]

I also think US market is mostly over-valued atm. My question is where to invest my hard-earned where it will be (at least partially) protected if / when the bubble bursts? As a recent retiree, I don't have the luxury of many decades ahead to recover from a massive crash. However I also need to see my SIPP growing at least by inflation plus 2 or 3%, so it lasts me out. Perhaps bonds, a mix of high yield corporate and safer gilts?

[@andrewwebster9619]

A short-term money market fund, such as Vanguard's? About 5% return at the moment. (I've just moved about 70% of my SIPP here as I'm in the same situation as yourself)

[@cumbrianrambler7715]

AI will be like clip art, and current over-use of CGI. we will use our human skills to sense when an individual or company is overselling or over-reaching. We have had oodles of computing power for decades now, and information systems in say NHS are still a total mess. It's always about human management, not the tech.

[@davidhalbleib2467]

The sound is much improved. 👍🏻

[@Pensioncraft]

Good to hear @davidhalbleib2467

[@yazanasad7811]

The new era. Repeated succession of new eras

[@ianschofield8259]

I recently converted 15k from a global fund to a uk money market fund as I am planning on taking it out next tax year. This is essentially for tax reasons. But the big question… would 16 months be enough time for things to recover from a pull back. Where’s a good quality crystal ball when you need one? Great video Ramin, many thanks sir.

[@david-fletcher]

“This time it’s different”

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @david-fletcher yes it is being said again this time 8-) Thanks, Ramin

[@francisravenscroft-dw6gi]

How many of these companies have a history of delivering a sustained dividend to share holders ? If they cant show a ten year period of return, then the share value is nothing more than speculation. 6 month treasuries will yield 4% with no risk and a guaranteed return.

[@axierr]

Right now with o3 from OpenAI we are not yet on maximun expectations 😁

[@shashimaashi832]

sir can i open 212 trading account ? i am from Sri Lanka...?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @shashimaashi832 no you can 't at the moment. These are the countries where it is available: helpcentre.trading212.com/hc/en-us/articles/12933782261917-What-are-the-supported-countries Thanks, Ramin.

[@shashimaashi832]

@Pensioncraft thank you sir actually i earn some dollar from the internet because of your you tube channel thank you sir...

[@alecdurbaville6355]

Pelosi isn’t selling. Hold, for now. If you’ve really got jitters lighten up a bit and go 60/40 equity/bonds.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @alecdurbaville6355 the NANC ETF must be doing well LOL. Thanks, Ramin.

[@dazedhavoc]

Do valuations matter anymore? They can just print 100 trillion dollars and prop up any market they want.

[@jakebest5601]

But the dollar loses value and inflation has always been a core factor for civil unrest. They did it during Covid due to unprecedented circumstances, which I believe they shouldn’t have done anyway. I would hope that the Fed and their peers internationally wouldn’t be so naive to employ this method frequently going forward.

[@vanodyssey1659]

Play the long game. DCA - Expect volatility - Be patient.

[@andymartin5755]

Passive index investing is becoming very dangerous.

[@Peepsuk1234]

Bubbles can go on bubbling for quite a while.

[@Pensioncraft]

Amen @Peepsuk1234 Thanks, Ramin

[@tancreddehauteville764]

I think the market will cool in the short term, though I think the current bull market still has some 'legs'. I predict a peak in the first half of next year and then a slow and steady decline, ending is a long period of sideways trading. I don't believe that the current mini-crash is the beginning of the decline. In the longer term I still think the bull market will return with a vengeance once inflation and interest rates fall.

[@masterjointu]

Bubble for sure. Yield inversion confirmed, hence we should see a pop next year

[@nighttrain1236]

I'm scared to sell and lose out on equities though. That's probably a good sign to sell because I'm normally wrong :D

[@fzixkid-gh9rv]

@@nighttrain1236 I tend to use my uncertainty to gauge how much to invest in equity: for me, proportion of funds in money markets reflects how much I think this might be a bubble. Unfortunately, my uncertainty changes over time - e.g. found the recent dip quite scary.

[@masterjointu]

@ FOMO

[@RHill40]

My friend tells me that valuation and P/E ratio doesnt matter, all the time.

[@ryanjackson4597]

We are in a bubble 💯

[@Mr1971mccarthy]

I’m so sorry to see your channel distroyed by spam. Makes me anti AI

[@cumbrianrambler7715]

AI will make everyone sound like an American car salesman. It simply increases the need to meet a person in person for exams and interviews because every email will say the same gushing US nonsense: 'Honored to meet you. I'm a high achieving blue sky thinker, ready to leverage my assets as I shit on any staff who threaten my promotion'

[@Pensioncraft]

8-) You should take a look at sovereign AI which is something Michael (my podcast co-host) flagged. A Large Language Model simply picks up what it's trained on. So you can create a local AI. Personally I'm amazed there isn't a Brummie voice for ChatGPT as I would instantly trust it (I grew up in Worcester). Thanks, Ramin.

[@ManilaTom]

Treasury Bills are paying 4.5%. I am slowly moving into them… Time to go 30% or 40 % T Bills in March or April 2025. Warren Buffet style.

[@jongreenwood3029]

This time it’s different, Ramin…..oh wait

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @jongreenwood3029 8-) Thanks, Ramin

[@Don_Gorgan]

There will be some correction, and then prices will go up

[@MaZe741]

"the consensus" is absolutely worthless

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @MaZe741 I agree the consensus is often wrong but it's useful to know. That way you can be contrarian if you choose to be, but also you're aware of crowded trades that can reverse abruptly and violently. Thanks, Ramin.

[@gpc8984]

The S&P 500 might be overvalued, but surely the FSTE250 isn't?

[@Pensioncraft]

True @gpc8984 and I'll be posting a video about what's cheap soon! Thanks, Ramin.

[@gpc8984]

@@Pensioncraft Thank you Ramin.

[@latitudepost]

The FTSE 250, in my view, is currently very good value and could be a shining star over the coming years. DYOR

[@stevetroxel7195]

IMO It’s a bubble when just anybody throws money in the market and is making astronomical returns. There’s an enormous amount of greed and many will be left holding the bag imo. East come easy go

[@EdmundJohnson]

One thing that may be different this time is the level of currency debasement, with stocks being something of a store of value vs cash. Not saying this is the best investment strategy, just comparing stock valuations now vs stock valuations in the past.

[@sunruth-n8s]

Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.

[@Surenjoel-u9g]

Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.

[@dondee-i9p]

I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!

[@brefnejowers9747]

Report some of the spam and help Ramin out for Christmas ⛄

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @brefnejowers9747! Ramin

[@stevegeek]

I just spent 10 minutes reporting spam....incredible amount of crypto junk posts. Shame.

[@Andygb78]

Campaign for a spam free Christmas.

[@jakebest5601]

I’m reminded of Howard Mark’s frequent utterance - “forward, but with caution”

[@JensN113]

Probably need a recession to wash out all the stupid overleveraged money

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @JensN113 I think that's probably right! Thanks, Ramin.

[@sfb1219]

Bubble only pops during euphoria and AI few years away ...

[@methyleneblue4659]

AI is bought out. The next visible growth is somewhere in Energy, Near Space Exploitation and Defense Applications.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @methyleneblue4659 true, and something else will come along that I'm sure isn't even on our radar right now. But if the dot com bubble is anything to go by it took a wipeout and gradual recovery to sort out profitable Internet business models (Google, Facebook, Amazon etc.). That might happen again, although it's those behemoths that are able to deploy and scale AI so they might be the winners again. Thanks, Ramin.

[@benjmorg]

Global equity funds aren't sufficiently diversified in my opinion. Check the key facts and look for international allocation - you'll find it's dominated by the US.

[@VoiceOfThe]

Yes, because the majority of the total market is made up of U.S. companies, so it makes sense you’re tilted accordingly. As a newbie investor I thought that until I learned more.

[@jabberwockytdi8901]

That's what equal weight funds are for , you can adjust your US exposure down that way with whatever mix you like plus US small cap or Q+V funds if you want to filter out the most bubbly mega caps.

[@oas8766]

It is accounting for the coming inflation. Inflation will go throigh the roof over the next decade. Mark my words.

[@dehrk9024]

tldr; its a bubel

[@sebfox2194]

Michael Bublé? Yeah, he usually shows up around Christmas time.

[@wood-e9s]

As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.

[@Surenjoel-u9g]

I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.

[@Gjudxdkjyzddhjnr7091]

I think the demographics around the world show the USA will have the strongest stock market for the foreseeable future since it is the only developed country without a chronically aging population

[@richardthomas7103]

I bought soundhound 6 weeks ago , I was up 200% at one point now 180 if it had done that in 6 years I would have been happy , it now looks like a take over target , We just don’t know where ai will go , will it fizzle out ? Is it hype ?

[@sebfox2194]

Sounds like you've done a 180.

[@X5493-c7p]

America on rude health 😂 the GPD is propped up by government spending and consumers buying on credit which WILL run out!

[@X5493-c7p]

Oh and lets not forget all the buy now pay later or as it’s called poor now poorer later 😂

[@jaaguitar]

AI is a big disappointment, but companies will pretend it works. And also replace staff with inferior AI. They don't really have an alternative. So staff will be forced to use the copilots even though they produce crap. No way they can just say it didn't pan out now.

[@wesley5nipes]

This is a smart comment. I don't know if AI will prove a bust or not, but even if it sucks, they'll use it in pursuit of profits.

[@royed31]

But the way the EU is and the UK under labour , the US still seems more attractive

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @royed31 if you are contrarian you always buy when markets are cheap and they are _always_ cheap for a reason. The question, as I say in the video, is whether the reason is reversible i.e. you buy when it's cheap then wait for the "reason" to go away and benefit from the upward re-rating. Thanks, Ramin.

[@X5493-c7p]

Anyone who invests in the UK now needs a medical examination 😂 unless you’re blackrock or Bill G. as it looks like the administration have sold out to them!

[@davidpearson243]

I bought a uk dividend ETF on 10/10/22 (when Liz Truss was PM) it’s up 31% as of Friday it has plateaued since May I’m happy with 15% per year but not sure it will do 15%this in the next 9 or 10 months

[@seangraham7573]

Global index funds won’t save you if the US tanks it will simply fall inline if not worse, firms are global especially the mag 7

[@prometheus4130]

sorry, but looking back past 1970 is misleading……when Nixon ended the gold standard the dynamic of valuations and inflation changed. you’re comparing apples to pears and this could be misleading your subscribers, unless you reference this

[@r1pperuk]

Less than 10% are even in the market so with easy investing thanks to apps we have a lot more growth. Not even starting to bubble.

[@LurchLures]

If people think there's a bubble because shares are "overpriced"" that's because thier pricing model predicts a lower price than reality. Rather than work out what's wrong with thier model , and learn and improve they expect reality to correct itself to fit thier model.

[@dubsdolby9437]

Bubble in 2020 2021 2022 2023 same old same old 😴 the stock market is a constant bull market if you stay the test of time and don't sell simple!

[@peterstanev7877]

Yes sure US economy in rude health...are you blind ..if was the case us gov would not have 2.5trillion in deficit every year. Gov spending stops and us economy shits itself

[@amcluesent]

I wanted to discuss investment with my shoe-shine boy but he's now a crypto millionaire living in Zermat

[@Sabhail_ar_Alba]

Trump[ and tariffs ?

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

was sad to see Ramin doing a pikachu face on his thumbnail.A bit too meet kevin for my taste. Googles pathetic algo wants endless doom headlines with pikachu face. Your better than that ramin.

[@coderider3022]

US investors avoid “international” stocks, it’s their patriotism 1st then money 2nd. I’m ok with Dev world funds and expect them to pump it back up after a crash.

[@tancreddehauteville764]

AI will take most white collar jobs in the next 10 years. If that doesn't justify high valuations I don't know what will. That said, there will be cooling off next year.