"Who is winning?" - Mythbusting the Ukraine-Russia war

[@morzyanka5174]

Just wanted to point out that it's not "Russia", whose people endured hardships of the Second World War, it's the Soviets. Soviets included ukrainians too, rather large part of their army, actually. Plus most of the heavy fighting in the eastern front took place in the USSR. Thus it's incorrect to assume that ukrainian people never experienced such things historically.

[@Iwentfullretard]

@@lightworker2956 Holodomor happened 1932-1933. You would side with anyone but Soviets after that event.

[@NewRSM1994]

@@Iwentfullretard fitting name...

[@taekatanahu635]

Rather ironically some divisions that Stalin sent to invade Finland in 1939 consisted mostly of Ukrainians. For example the 44th Division that was completely destroyed during the Battle of Raate Road.

[@Alexmitter]

@@lightworker2956 Ah another Russian Bullshitter again. Why does Azov Regiment exist, what brought it into existence, what made Ukraine desperate enough that it allowed such a massively unpopular group to be part of their national guards. Then the answer is simple, the Invasion of the Fascist Russian Federation in 2014. Azov Battalion is around 1000 people with Zero political influence. But lets not talk about this tiny group, lets talk about Fascist Russias own Nazi Battalion, the Group Wagner with its famous leader who has two SS uniform symbols as tattoos on his neck and a Reichsadler with Hakenkreuz on his breast. This is a high society Russian who operates his Nazi Battalion for the Fascist Russian Government in various countries. Russia of all countries, should be the most silent when it comes to having a Nazi Problem if open Nazis are this welcome in the Russian government. Russia needs to be Demilitarized and Denazified, and broken apart in as tiny pieces as possible.

[@Сергей-ш3т6д]

@@lightworker2956 this comment bein removed by YT?

[@TheChieftainsHatch]

I appreciate your emphasising that victory/defeat is relative only to the one side being considered. Too many people seem to believe that if one side is defeating the other side, then that side must be winning. Yet the doctrinal definition of inflicting a 'defeat' has absolutely nothing to do how well you have done, yourself, it is solely a reflection of whether the enemy can still achieve what it set out to do. Thus both sides being defeated is entirely possible and, I would suspect, far more common than any other outcome in a battle.

[@jonathanwerner3664]

Was it not that Clauswitz fella that said: "War is the continuation of policy with other means." It is gonna be very interesting to see the impact these events have on the states and organizations involved.

[@timesthree5757]

Ok. In military point of veiw it is a toss up. Still on the political it is a toss up. Finally it has nothing to do with said countries goal. Who wins comes down to the Military outcome. Regardless of what the politicians say it is the last battle that counts.

[@MorrisDugan]

An example: can you really say that either side won the USSR-Afghanistan war?

[@marcusdaniel6406]

To add on this, rather than debating the “winning side”, it is more clear who is the “losing side” which is the lasting peace in Europe. Any notion for further conflict be it from Russia and Ukraine will only make peace for the good of the people harder to achieve. This conflict and the destabilizing effect it cause, harm far reaching country such as mine (Indonesia) due to higher global price of commodities which in turn destabilize domestic politics and create other unrelated conflict.

[@robertsneddon731]

@@MorrisDugan Afghans control Afghanistan territory today. If there's a winner and a loser in a conflict the one left in control of the territory fought over is probably the winner. Whether Afghanistan is worth fighting over is another matter. Defining "Afghans" as a national identity is problematic given the porosity of the defined border with Pakistan and other nations and cross-border tribal and familial connections.

[@jamescobban857]

“What this country needs is a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.” - Vyacheslav von Plehve, 1904 “What this country needs is a short victorious war to curb the NATO threat.” - Vladimir Putin, 2022

[@seanmac1793]

Just wait for the 2nd Pacifc sqaudron to arrive Russia will sweep the Japanese from the seas

[@binkyslapass1]

@@arbitrary531 yes USA will fall hard...

[@Misha-dr9rh]

It's fucking hilarious how he wanted a short war to flex on NATO and improve his reputation, and instead: Completely fucking ruined Russia's economy and reputation, got a shit ton of sanctions, showed how awfully ineffective their military actually was, revitalized the kind of dying NATO and basically guaranteed that two more very important countries would join, and made their country the laughingstock of the entire goddamn world.

[@binkyslapass1]

@@Misha-dr9rh its all propaganda russia is kicking there ass, And hasn't started to really attack.....

[@Misha-dr9rh]

@@binkyslapass1 if they were really "kicking there ass" they would have had tanks and russian flags rolling through kiev on day 4

[@Markfr0mCanada]

I served in the Canadian Armed Forces for 15 years. Your videos are more thorough, better researched, more understandable and vastly more compact and efficient than any briefing I ever sat through prior to or during a deployment. I am all to familiar with "death by powerpoint", and here I am free choosing to spend my own free time watching these videos. I don't know how much you are enjoying making these, but you have discovered a talent.

[@Nygaard2]

Ah yes... “death by PowerPoint” I’ve been close to that as well!

[@minkernator]

This is so true. The idea I'd be volunteering to watch hour long presentations on anything is shocking but it's genuinely great 'content'

[@scania1982]

You should check out Phillip Karber's videos.

[@wihamaki]

I've been able to spend some time with various government and military people and although none of them revealed specifics, the big picture I got from all of it was there definitely wasn't any lack of Intel to the point what you received would of been their compact and efficient.

[@avro-day]

you might like Michael Kofman from CNA in Washington.

[@Dumertone]

As a Kyiv-based Ukrainian, here's my hot take: Strategically, Ukraine won on day 5, when the Russian army got bogged down on the outskirts of Kyiv and the economy-shattering (in long-term, admittedly) sanctions started to pile up. At that point, even if Ukraine would capitulate and Zelensky would flee and form a government in exile, it would only be a matter of time before Russia would economically rot from the inside out. It would take months, maybe a couple of years, but it would be inevitable, and we would regain our independence after the collapse of the Russian Reich. Every day of our resistance escalates the rot. With 6th packet of sanctions on the way and total embargo on the nose, IMO, Russia is a dead man walking. She's like the Chornobyl disaster liquidators, who got tremendously irradiated in one night, but still briefly acted and felt pretty normal only to start falling apart (literally) in days. The only question that remains uncertain is how painful to us (in terms of civilian and military casualties, infrastructure can be rebuilt) Russia's agony is going to be. The only way the Russian "special operation" could result in something other than total economic disintegration is if they'd manage to capture Kyiv in literally like 12 hours (so that Western democracies would have no time to react with sanctions and lend-lease). And you have to smoke funny leaves to seriously, unironically plan for this.

[@PalleRasmussen]

Russia lost on Day 1, they could never win, and I stated that at the time.

[@heavenbright2342]

When can your 1 million strong army push the 200,000 weak Russians out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhanks, Donetsk and take back your oil and gas fields and reserves on the sea worth trillions? After all, you guys already won on day 5.

[@kamilosowski3889]

I would agree to some point but you are a bit too optimistic. Now the question is... How much of Ukrainian land can Russia grab and occupy? Cause I don't believe they will retreat from Donbas, Mariupol or Cherson. And unfortunately I cannot see Ukrainians taking it back... They will fortify their positions, they will bring reinforcements and breaking through them will be nearly impossible. At least not until NATO starts supplying Ukraine with tanks, fighter jets, heavy artillery etc. We have a lot of Mig-29, T-72 and BMPs in Poland and we are more than willing to donate them to Ukraine but... We can't do it as Poland and you, as an Ukrainian, now exactly why. Poland is on Putin's list as well. We would need it to be done by NATO or by USA... Otherwise we cannot take such risk. It's time for the US to step up and start acting like the real superpower who they are. We all keep our fingers crossed for you guys and we believe you will be able to kick this Russian сволочь from your land. Slava Ukraini!

[@PxThucydides]

I haven't heard anyone suggest the maximalist interpretation of the flight from Kyiv. Armies don't typically throw down their weapons and run and then come back stronger. Those units that fled to the border may be in a state of mutiny. Quite frankly, Russia may no longer have an army. It's not like Russia can now assemble a different army with different tactics and conduct blitzkrieg. They don't have another army. If I'm correct there will be a few attempts by Russia to advance in the Donbas, but these will be half-hearted and ineffectual. The few remaining Russians who try will be wiped out. And then, Putin's Generals- those who are still alive- will go to the bunker and tell him, gravely, I'm sorry, Mein Fuhrer, but Steiner did not attack. Congratulations to you and all your fellow Ukrainians on defiance that will stand as a symbol for centuries to come.

[@holdinmcgroin8639]

Stay safe bro

[@KingsandGenerals]

Good stuff. If you ever need anything translated from Russian and Ukrainian, ping me on Twitter.

[@rodwallace6237]

I have used Google Translate to successfully translate Russian and Ukrainian law. Not perfect but you can get the gist of the piece.

[@kjmmediapro]

Hey! I am subscribed to you guys too. You are both great channels

[@theculturedjinni]

You make great stuff and is one of the inspirations for me! Keep going!

[@jamoblair7245]

whoa! Awesome, you are one of the best channels on youtube, awesome to see you helping out smaller channels! Love your work!

[@edvfya9922]

Thats a generous offer, good on you.

[@nimaiiikun]

I find some similarities with the Sino-Vietnamese war in 79. the PRC went in with some vague objectives, huge losses in a short time, withdrew, and changed their narrative to claim victory.

[@paulmurray8922]

Yup. Reminded me of that war. China's lesson to Vietnam over its involvement in Cambodia resulted in Vietnam still firmly in Cambodia.

[@kurousagi8155]

To be fair to the Chinese, they may not have beaten the Vietnamese, but they did show that the Soviet Union’s ability to protect its allies was limited.

[@moistjohn]

@@kurousagi8155 in that the soviet union can continue to provide material for almost a decade while fighting a war in afghanistan? Edit: as their country began to go through shortages and slow collapse ad well

[@MenwithHill]

@@kurousagi8155 That's the big question. Was that their initial objective, or as professional historians call it, copium ? There's a reason why both sides are claiming victory, it was very muddled and messy. I'm tempted to say the invader failed their initial strategic objectives.

[@rootin222]

Vietnam was stopping a genocide in Cambodia and China intervened with the United States as covert help with the Vietnamese to feeding them Russia is fighting against Nazism rising in Ukraine there’s nothing remotely comparable in fact if Ukraine was independent when China invaded Vietnam they would probably support the Chinese

[@AiRPasternak]

This channel went from casual gamer to professional military analyst real quick 😂

[@michaelsullivan9860]

Let’s not pretend there’s a difference to begin with. :P kidding, but seriously.

[@Achrononmaster]

@@michaelsullivan9860 Well, you are not being serious, and such flippancy is f'kin' idiotic. Videogame strategy analysis is insufficient for RL expertise. Do you account for troop moral? Do you account for the psychological impact a nazi has on an ordinary Russian citizen? Do you account for shear stupidity and hypocrisy of NATO? (In videogame analysis one normally assumes the actors are a bit rational, and might even want to protect their allies instead of fighting with them to the last ally.) I agree Perun has good analysis and content, but the fog of war is thick IRL and you have no source code to inspect.

[@davidjames2145]

@@Achrononmaster Calm analysis isn't part of your doctrine it would seem, judging by your unsubstantiated (typical Putinbot) comments about NATO. The _"Russia isn't winning this"_ part must really hurt you. #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 🇬🇧

[@lordraon1579]

@@Achrononmaster You're insane...

[@lmapls9690]

@@lordraon1579 no he is not, NATO isn't the whole world. NATO I doubt any Arabs, Africans, south Americans really care if NATO wins or not simply. Actually I would like to point out Arabs and south Americans really fing hate NATO

[@Fedaykin24]

To add a point to your conclusion, even if Ukraine added to their constitution that they would not join NATO and then adhered to that doesn't mean they couldn't closely align to the alliance. In the last couple of decades both Finland and Sweden have modernised their armed forces to be NATO interoperable and also interact with NATO command and control, they even participate in NATO exercises. The reality is Finland and Sweden already have a foot through the door into NATO membership and there is no reason why the Ukraine couldn't do the same.

[@Dumertone]

It's not "NATO membership", it's "special NATO collaboration". Bro, trust me, I swear.

[@jizburg]

Yea as a swede that has military background, there has never been any doubt about who our allies would be in a war. And who would be the enemy. We are as close to NATO membership one can be without actualy signing the papers. But i think its only a matter of time now.

[@shiroamakusa8075]

And constitutions are not magically binding contracts that are enforced by the contract fairies (or the Kolyaruts if you play D&D). Russia has given Ukraine a reason to pursue revanchism, they could at any point decide that any such article is a just a piece of written paper that came about through blackmail and erase or break it. The same way France took Alsace-Lorraine back after WW1 when they had signed a treaty to hand it over to Germany half a century earlier.

[@StoutProper]

Ukraine has been NATOised for the past 8 years which is certainly partly how we got here

[@Hassel-]

@@StoutProper No, its not.

[@cah11111]

Honestly, I think there's an under-appreciation for how many people on KZbin want to find honest, informed, and professional presentations covering current events that aren't rammed down our throats by a state or corporate sponsored source with a clear agenda. So first I want to thank and congratulate you for kind of filling that niche here. Second, I've briefly looked at some of your gaming videos and I'll admit, I have no idea what the hell is going on. I thought I played some horribly complicated games like HOI4 and EVE Online, but man, that turn Dominions 5 game you play is another level! Thirdly, I would say unless you are looking to go full time KZbin, and trying to essentially make that your job, then just make the content you enjoy making! I may have found you because of these Ukraine war updates, but you've peaked my interest in your other videos. Ultimately, if continuing to make these makes you happy and is fulfilling, then keep doing it, if you feel better off making purely gaming videos, then do that!

[@balazsjakabffy2556]

To be honest, I find dominions a lot simpler than hearts of iron, at least mechanically.

[@kevinprokopenko7023]

It's quite easy to find more truth on this issue. Just take the Narrative the Fake News and most ( cause censoring of Y.T. ) KZbin channels are pushing, and assume the opposite. Don't need to pick sides. 100% accurate so far.

[@f_lawless7689]

Thank you for your comment, yours and many others are saying what I might wish to say to our host. The committee would like me to suggest 'piqued' as an alternative spelling, it's the OCD, my apologies. Have a wonderful day/night Warrick

[@ThePTBRULES]

I remember before the 2016 election when KZbin didn't promote Corporate Media ahead of everything else, and what you want, was.

[@barbh1]

With all it's faults, the internet has enabled us to talk to each other all over the world and find out that we are very much alike.

[@ryanziegler9591]

"Didn't expect hour long slide shows to be what youtube wanted." (paraphrasing) Man.... I've been looking for exactly this since Ukrain Vs Russia kicked off. Your data driven approach and refusal to be carried away in wishful thinking is perfect. Thank you so much for what you do. My only complaint is I can't watch a new video of yours every day. I understand though that this takes a lot of work and research. Thank you again!

[@wessley2771]

this is not data driven, just because someone uses slides to confirm their bias, just to confirm yours. Media blackout... People are going to wake up very surprised one day

[@FMeyer-zg5mg]

@@taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 Well you can dream as much as you want, reality is another story.

[@slavplaysgames]

THIS IS BULLSHIT UN NATO PROPAGANDA DEFENDING THE NAZI UKRAINE AND NATO

[@cant_Comment]

no nzis in ukraine? is he drunk or something? look at the stuff going on since the maidan. look at civilian anecdotes. this is well documented. even mainstream western media reported on this before. it was on fox news too! even if the west were to keep arming the ukrainian military, it still wont change the fact that the ukrainian government is on the back foot and russia is controlling the war. THE NEW ATLAS talked about this. it doesnt matter even if the west is arming ukraine. they would barely contribute to the war effort. mariupol had already been taken by the russians and ukrainians. right now ukrainians against the ukrainian government, had taken over the citys administrative functions. besides mariupol, there had been city after city either being captured by the russian-ukrainian coalition, or declaring "neutrality", opting not to fight the russians. also, why do folks keep ignoring the ukrainians fighting on the russian side? almost half of the "russian" forces in mariupol and elsewhere are UKRAINIAN.

[@cchill100]

Is Russia/Soviets/ USSR/ Kremlin/ Moscow/ whoever they are behind their leader Poot'n 100%. His decision to kill Ukrainian people and completly destroy the country has got to be an act of desperation to get his country to rally around him. The deaths of russian soldiers will support the war by they will want revenge and now they both hate each other . Ukrainian people know its Poot'n and not the russian people hopefully russian people dont blame ukrainian people when their sons come home in a box . I would be mad at Pootin if i had a son come home in a box.

[@TheMissing8]

Dude, your videos are so well done and presented. Thank you for doing these.

[@sirzorg5728]

Your content is blowing up because you provide a concise, intelligent, and unbiased analysis. IF you keep to those core principles, you will know no end to your success.

[@admthrawnuru]

Just think, if he gets another 100k views or so his comments will start filling up with Russian bots. That'll be great for his interactions.

[@slslbbn4096]

Russia has begun selling mini-nukes and biochemical weapons to America's enemies. That is much more concerning to me than all that official military posturing.

[@gerryjamesedwards1227]

I scrolled down to say roughly the same thing. It's nice to see that I'm not alone!

[@nowthisnamestaken]

This channel is a refuge.

[@samhughes1747]

Seriously. The line “I’ll give a lawyers’ answer,” except he put in “doctoral thesis” effort to arrive at that answer. Love it!

[@hermestrismegistus4650]

You are literally the best war commentator on youtube. I’ve searched far and wide but no creator can compare to your knowledge, style of presenting, and rhetorical skills. I look forward to your videos a lot! Please keep em coming!! Your knowledge is extremely valuable!

[@betweennationswithnolan8498]

Check at “speak the truth” podcast on KZbin as well he is very good

[@stevenweasel2678]

YOU ARE EASILY PLEASED HERMES/ BECAUSE MARK FELTON AND TIK / R WAY BETTER

[@jahjah7495]

@@stevenweasel2678 A few of Marks stated facts (yes only a few) have been wrong and one was an insult and to my knowledge he never corrected it.

[@alexanderfenn4457]

Just wanted to say I've been a massive fan of all of your intel content. I'm sure a lot of hard work goes into it but the quality is phenomenal! Keeping a balanced perspective in a raging torrent of claims and counter-claims like this sure isn't easy so massive respect for all of your analysis so far!

[@JonZiegler6]

Exactly this!

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

The internet is full of nonsense, clarity and useful knowlage are rare.

[@travcollier]

It isn't so much "balanced" as just fact-based. Seems like splitting hairs, but sometimes the reality gets pretty unbalanced.

[@barrybolton1396]

This is GREAT!

[@pt2031]

@@travcollier you are right plenty of people make the mistake of splitting the official arguments on both sides down the middle. But if one is 70% accurate and the other is 25% you will have a warped view. But if you rely of the info from each that can be supported and hold up to logic without assuming someone is entirely evil you have a more accurate view.

[@haplo19]

The thing I love about this channel is that if you scroll back there are dozens and dozens of videos of this guy analyzing videogame strategy and commentating, and like... no audience at all. A few thousand views apiece. But it wasn't time wasted, it was more like the Beatles in Hamburg, still unknown, playing to small crowds, but honing their craft, getting their 10,000 hours. Then the Ukraine war happened, and as he says in this video kzbin.info/www/bejne/gXvOnpaEn82SmMk making content about video games felt empty, and he started to make these fantastic videos analyzing the conflict, and his audience exploded. All the skill this guy had nurtured suddenly found its moment. There's something amazing about seeing the right man for the job come along and find his calling. Great stuff, Perun!!

[@Achrononmaster]

Good observation. But videogame strategy analysis is insufficient for RL expertise. Do you account for troop moral? Do you account for the psychological impact a nazi has on an ordinary Russian citizen? Do you account for shear stupidity and hypocrisy of NATO? (In videogame analysis one normally assumes the actors are a bit rational, and might even want to protect their allies instead of fighting with them to the last ally.) I agree Perun has good analysis and content, but the fog of war is thick IRL and you have no source code to inspect.

[@gaoxiaen1]

@@Achrononmaster Do you account for the stupidity and ineptiyude of the Russian army? Do you account for the unwillingness of Russian conscripts (and forced contract soldiers) to fight a war? Do you account for Russian soldiers fragging their few NCOs and officers? Do you account for junior Russian officers theatening senior officers? ("Everybody here has a rifle", said a lieutenant, while spitting at a colonel's feet.) The list goes on and on, and the heavy artillery, with a greater range than Russia's is just starting to arrive. Economic sanctions and lack of allies and ordnance is just starting to hit home. You are a buffoon.

[@Meyr3356]

@@Achrononmaster He doesn't claim to account for factors not confirmable by hard data though. If you watch any of his videos, you would know this. He's completely focused on hard data or supposed hard data (Kill claims, confirmed kills, financial reports, military stockpile reports etc.)and just doesn't go in depth on morale. Hell, one of the points in this video talks about flattening Ukraine, and he turns it from the hyperbolic statement of "We'll roll you over with our superior military strength" to a nuanced discussion of Russian strategic bombing capability, including training, munitions, and the air fleet size. His content as far as Ukraine is concerned only considers tangible data points, while also acknowledging where even that isn't fool proof.

[@thefisherking78]

Sounds like you've read Outliers.

[@leandervr]

@@Achrononmaster It's more that he got the experience in making videos and now he's applying that with his expertise on history and data analysis to make exactly what we need.

[@pds2273]

I have studied war and Russian military for about 50 years. Your approach and analysis is very good on relevant topics. You stay within boundaries that you are reasonably confident and include the very important caveats. Keep up the great work.

[@jonfournier2338]

Did s see we

[@georgeorwell8501]

Better analysis than your average fusion center can generate.

[@peterlock3881]

I can't believe I just found this channel and promptly sat through 2 hours of power-point presentations. I would normally have fallen asleep. What excellent, apparently unbiased commentary. Very well done

[@chelseawilkinson307]

Same!

[@christopherconard2831]

Certainly better than any corporate "What's our vision of the next fiscal year" presentation that's forgotten before most of the attendees have left the room.

[@G4mer_D4d]

Agreed! And a gaming channel to boot?

[@Horizontalvertigo]

@Chaim Mendel who wants to make a youtube channel for their day job when they have a perfectly reasonable hobby?

[@psycronizer]

and how the hell does one remain unbiased with all the scenes of war crimes , dead babies and other equally awful scenes. To want to remain "unbiased" is basically saying your not human, pick a fucking side ! this isn't some statistical trend or formula we are discussing here, it's peoples lives being lost at the whim of a fucking monster.

[@foxwroc81]

You must realize this, but your content brings immense value to people who go out of their way to be actually informed. It's extremely fair, analytical, loaded with data and just logical reasoning. Which is overwhelmingly the opposite of what s...tuff organized media outlets are able to produce. We are eternally starving for content such as yours, man. Don't let it go to your head too much tho, popularity corrupts the soul ;)

[@srelma]

Exactly. The problem with the mainstream media is twofold. They would never give someone a half an hour slot to go in detail of this question (and this was only the Russian side, there is still the analysis if Ukraine can win). Instead they have an ex-general in front of a map for 5 minutes. The other problem is that media will get a lot of shit if they present a cool neutral analysis of the war instead of drumming the war fervour for Ukraine by a) cheering for their victories and b) being upset by Russian war crimes. Those are important functions as well, but people who would like to get as accurate view of what is going on in actual war that's not much of use. Also the "experts" that they use (usually ex military) surely have their own agenda (usually aligned with western governments), which is why they paint the picture in this light instead of giving an honest professional view. Again these views are useful, but we have to keep in mind that they do not have a motivation to talk truth.

[@borghorsa1902]

Mind Russian trolls, they have banned all internet platforms in Russia so Russians inside Russia are totally support the holocaust. But the trolls come to western sites and spread their filth here.

[@FMeyer-zg5mg]

Well this here is just another western fairy tale.

[@justinblake420]

@@FMeyer-zg5mg correct

[@justinblake420]

You want to be actually informed? Notice we only see destroyed russian tanks? Notice both sides use the same tank? Notice the only difference is a white Z? Notice all the russians have tins of white paint? Notice russians have white cloth on their arms? Noticed they have heaps of white cloth? Notice the lack of dead Ukrainian soldiers? Notice Ukraine is screaming for weapons like tanks and artillery? Russia demilitarized them in the first few weeks and even Ukraine is unaware

[@ericlanglois9194]

Just a little historical fun fact regarding "kill claims" made by official sources, the USS Enterprise CV-6 was claimed sunk by the Imperial Japanese Navy three separate times during the Pacific campaign of WW2, earning her the nickname "The Grey Ghost". For a ship that apparently sunk three separate times, she became the most decorated warship in American history and saw a peaceful retirement in 1947.

[@krzheph7373]

Yes but was it really the USS Enterprise CV-6 that retired in 1947? Wouldn't surprise me if the US faked that. Oh sorry you trust historians dont you? Coz history as we know is written by the victors.

[@thunderspark1536]

Ohhh, that's where the name came from lol. That's damn funny.

[@jtgd]

Yeah, Japan’s navy lied their asses off after midway

[@Peterski]

@@jtgd It's not necessarily lying as such, more like misreporting. It's difficult to confirm kills and what ships were sunk in a combat situation. A similar thing happened during Pearl Harbor attack - the numbers reported by the excited Japanese pilots were way higher than in reality. Similarly, during the Battle of Midway, Japanese planes attacked the Yorktown twice, convinced they were two different carriers - and were reported as two different carriers taken out of action.

[@rudolphguarnacci197]

Yeah. Fun.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

Mate you are very rare on YT, a person who actually knows what hes talking about and what hes talking about being important.

[@nel7505]

I hope you don't feel too much pressure on making contents like these (Ukraine-Russian war), Perun. The views and attention, while nice to have, isn't as important as making content you really like. Thank you for the good content anyways.

[@ColdHawk]

My hope is that these videos are energizing because they allow the creator to express some of his passions. I think we can hear the fire he’s got for these topics. That being said, I hope he keeps doing gaming content if that is what he loves to do and it keeps him balanced and happy. Unrelieved coverage of this conflict could burn one out pretty quickly...

[@fab006]

Yes. I discovered you because of these and really hope you continue, but ONLY if you enjoy it!

[@KenTails]

Nel Upvote to that!

[@willboudreau1187]

This comment is COMPLETELY off base. With a show of hands, how many viewers care if Perun "likes" making these videos. Doing what he likes doesn't make a pisshole's in the snow amount of difference. The FACT IS that his videos on gaming are useless to humanity. Just boys and toys. HOWEVER HIS VIDEOS ON THE ACTUAL WAR ARE EXTREMELY VALUABLE, and he should continue them NO MATTER how he feels about doing them. This man, Perun, has more knowledge, more ability to think, more ability to analyze, more ability to observe, and more ability to give dispassionate commentary on both sides of the war THAN ANY OTHER COMMENTATOR ON KZbin. The only person superior in their abilities I think would be Zelenskyy himself. So to people who care about the "creator's passions", FUCK OFF you pajama boys living in your mother's basements. Video gaming is brainless nonsense. Grow up. This man, Perun, is an EXTREMELY VALUABLE human being, and as I've said before in this space, Perun should absotively posilutely have a voice at the national level. He should be consulted by governments and armies alike (Western ones, of course!!). The crimes of this war are only compounded by the fact Perun is not in a position of more authority.

[@Hobonewsnetwork]

Agreed! Please don’t burnout bud!✌️

[@ihl0700677525]

I've been following some geopolitics and military channels, most of them either focus on "the big picture" (Russian strategic vulnerability, competition on grand scale, etc) or talk about the individual weapon and equipment being used in this conflict. Nobody I followed analyzes this conflict in such "holistic" and comprehensive manner like you. Kudos.

[@rodwallace6237]

And some are better than others. Many use the same stock footage when talking about a completely different subject. The makers of western anti-tank missiles are supply lots of footage to whomever. Most of the damage is being done by an Ukrainian built laser guided weapon, a Polish rocket launcher and the good ol' deadly RPG.

[@fazole]

Do u follow Caspian Report? He's exceptional, imo.

[@simplelife9173]

Vulgar comedian Zelensky is begging for money and weaponry from all and any countries - this neonazi will surely burn in Hell for what he has done. The puppets of US countries are merely 1/4 of all countries. The rest of the world is NOT supporting ukranianNazis. For honest and truthful history and news you can watch Ukraine on Fire by Oliver Stone and Scott Ritter.

[@ihl0700677525]

@@fazole Yep. Along with Mahanology, "Good Times Bad Times", Professor Ker-Lindsay and others.

[@kieranwalsh2058]

@@ihl0700677525 Animarchy has some interesting videos on this too

[@tomsmith3045]

Your content is amazing. One person, with a knowledge of history and math, and an ability to do clear presentations, is doing maybe the best presentation on the subject in the world. While the giant media companies are just showing video clips without any meaningful information. As far as this video goes, I think it's spot on. The only thing I would add, is that I think the danger is if the conflict continues at a slow pace, and the western resolve or interest fades. I would like to see the military resources flowing into Ukraine at an increasing rate, so that the spread can be contained, and that the fighting can be limited to military forces on both sides. Then, it should become a matter of technical and material attrition, and less about civilian or even military casualties, until Russia is driven out.

[@anon2427]

Those giant media conglomerates are intentionally misleading you

[@jimmy_the_sound]

Hey mate, I'd never seen any of your content before the Russia / Ukraine analysis, but I'm thoroughly enjoying your style and the objective way in which you address the subject!

[@ruskiydude9987]

Well I wouldn’t call it pretty much objective but biased more towards the western claims. Like Russia asking China for assistance ? It was literally said in a US official interview that they did that claim to get into Putin’s head so that he doesn’t ask China for help. So is half of the info stated here, only half shady facts and according to them some conclusion was drawn.

[@tsufordman]

same

[@chaosvii]

Same here

[@MegaHarko]

this

[@djanitatiana]

Agree

[@DarkestVampire92]

The gaming video market is sadly heavily oversaturated, while only very few people can put out detailed military analysis videos with an unbiased perspective. So its not surprising to me at all that you had so much success with it, because you're honestly quite amazing at the amount of information you can provide. Hell, i've been following the news religiously and until you came along nobody could even tell me why Putin insists on it being a special operation rather than a war, something that should've been fairly simple for "Experts on Russian politics".

[@keyring3]

was about to write a coment, but you just made all my points have a like

[@f_lawless7689]

Sir, I would have liked very much, I think, for you to carry on with what you were saying... Regards

[@richardgreene9077]

If it was a war Of conquest obviously Putin would have pulled out his Military Science 101 text book and invaded with a 3-1 numerical advantage….

[@DarkestVampire92]

@@richardgreene9077 Or waited for a couple more years to actually get half of his fifteen different rearmament and modernization plans finished, rather than invading with no T-14s, no SU-54s, no Ratnik body armor/equipment packages and only a handful, bare-naked AK-12s.

[@sys3248]

It's special operations because they're only involving 150k strong troops allowed to them and with order reducing infrastructures and civilians collateral. Too bad Ukrainian forces like to use both civilians and the infrastructures to shield themselves.

[@BugsydorPrime]

It's been really refreshing to find someone talking about the conflict that isn't spouting hyperbole, fear-mongering, or jingoism. (And still appreciated the memes, while keeping in mind that memes are, in fact, memes, and should be taken with a grain of salt.) Also, as an aspiring data scientist, that tweet with the crappy tables hurt my soul. There are people who are being paid to do what I want to do for a living, and they're doing it badly! D :

[@RobVollat]

Goodluck!

[@threethrushes]

It's somewhat naive to think that there are people who are doing the job 'badly' because the information is incorrect. Bad actors exist, and disinformation is a viable strategem in war, whether one likes it or not.

[@strategosopsikion8576]

This is an amazing analysis man. Your abilities in stating nuances and describing complex ideas are second to none!

[@ľőŵďǒpė86]

being an Airborne Infantryman w/ 3 combat deployments to a history teacher/military history fanatic, i have a hard time finding any YT channels that i can actually watch, enjoy and learn from. you, sir, have made one of those channels. please keep doing what you’re doing. you’ve earned another Patreon supporter.

[@Cahill22able]

Exactly, I wonder if Airborne doctrine will change after we are able to more effectively analyze this conflict. Although I would hope that we would actually achieve air superiority before attempting a jump...

[@toddmachado4329]

I agree, good content. I was a 11B but I was a leg

[@SwiftTrooper5]

It is always refreshing to hear sensible, well-spoken articles on KZbin. A platform rife with extreme viewpoints and characters. Thank you for a nice hour long watch.

[@sysghost]

Russia: -"Ukraine is no longer a fascist country! Victory!" Well.. this claimed denazification... what did it cost? Russia: "Everything!" Your economy is wrecked. Russia: "Yeap!" Your relation with E.U. it wrecked. Russia: "Yeap!" Your relation with the U.S. it wrecked. Russia: "It always was." You've been banned out of a lot of things and places. Russia: "Da!" Lots of large international companies have left you. Russia: "We never needed them." You're not able to travel anywhere in the west. Russia: "So what? We never traveled anywhere there anyway." You had all your assets confiscated and frozen. Russia: "Never needed them anyway. Wortless crap." All this just to... do ... what? Russia: "We showed em nazis for sure! Aaaw yyeeaaah!" Are you proud? Russia: "Absolutely! Best thing we've ever done. You should thank us!"

[@crhu319]

They wouldn't be wrong though.

[@muhammadrizky3171]

Putin is in deep sh*t now eh. 😂🤣😂

[@RDWillett1]

Aint a bad thing to kick some Nazi ass in a western butt buddy country, id say its worth it for a Russian victory, id love to see Russia show the world they will never bow down to the Fascist Imperialists of America and its puppet states. Let's Go Russia! Lets win Motherland!

[@petriew2018]

@@muhammadrizky3171 the more money his oligarch friends lose, the less hours of sleep per night he gets

[@asasas9146]

And if they don't achieve a total victory with a genocide soon following (wich no longer seems possible) the amount of REAL nazis in Ukraine will increase dramatically after this barbarism. So yeah total success.

[@jamielondon6436]

6:58 Four months later, by Russia's own logic they've lost the war, because they're asking for help from abroad. ;-) Not that Russian propaganda statements have *ever* been consistent, of course.

[@leathermage]

?

[@nbrain1595]

@@leathermage i assume he is referring to that they apparently asked for help from iran and north korea to buy/get drones and artillery ammunition

[@MyMomSaysImKeen]

I'm a Russian citizen on vacation in Ukraine and I genuinely had no idea this was occurring. Thankfully I drove here in a T-72 with an AK and a few extra pairs of green fatigues

[@RrRr-or5tw]

For your own safety please finde the nearest Ukrainian military base and surrender eh I mean ask for for help you are in an active war zone and it can be very dangerous out there for a lone Russian and his T-72.

[@Argosh]

@@RrRr-or5tw he'll be surprised to know that he can trade in his old T72 for a nice stash of dollars.

[@kurousagi8155]

@@Argosh yes, I think it’s worth a few hundred thousand USD to the Ukrainians.

[@bobo-cc1xw]

It's not a holiday it's a special relaxation roadtrip

[@tgreaux5027]

I love the Liberty Bell you have hanging from your ceiling in the video you posted from 2020 LOL

[@LoremIpsum1970]

Certainly added this channel to the list, your efforts are really appreciated! It's good to see an unbiased deep dive without the typical YT hysteria 👍

[@danielm81]

Your analysis of this conflict - all of them - are eye opening, informative but also easy to understand. Basically it's a very good content!

[@lightfeather9953]

Yeah I'm really appreciating this. If I saw something like this on TV years ago I'd have been blown away.

[@Kevik70]

A year later and Russia is still being embarrassed by Ukraine.

[@pixiesquid]

Your content is fantastic. You do a great job of taking verifiable information, analysing it and taking it all the way up to the strategic / procurement / economic levels. Thanks for putting in the effort!

[@tirex3673]

About the „Denazification“, there was an article by Russian media, „What should Russia do with Ukraine“ which among using the word „Nazi“ so many times, that Godwin‘s Law must be spinning in its grave, basically uses „Denazification“ as an euphemism for cultural Genocide. Which becomes especially scary, in the light of war crimes, like the Massacre of Bucha.

[@saumyacow4435]

You gotta wonder if some of this is a war of envy. A lot of Russians are extremely poor and Ukraine isn't exactly rich by Western standards, but its middle class is enjoying being part of Europe. I'm reminded of that truck with looted washing machines. So part of the "cultural genocide" might actually be hating them for their relative wealth.

[@deankruse2891]

yeah i take the "denazification" as anything that opposes russian culture or supports ukrainian independence.

[@baneofbanes]

The article you’re talking about literally mentions that they’re going to destroy Ukrainian identity and culture. So yes it is genocide.

[@LordVader1094]

@@saumyacow4435 Envy of wealth and hyped up fear of cultural annihilation resulting in "self defensive" looting and war crimes? That sounds... Oddly familiar.

[@Pepe-dq2ib]

I thought it just meant the azov battalion, not the entirety of Ukraine.

[@thinksimon]

Breath of fresh air - I'm sooo fed up with people claiming either side is winning or losing without as much as an acknowledgement that "winning" or "losing" terms require careful definition. As Russian and Ukrainian speaker who has access to a lot of original content, I can attest that the author has the most complete coverage of the arguments on both sides and even though I didn't discover any new information I thoroughly enjoyed the consolidation of information and objective analysis. Well done!

[@olegkosygin2993]

The folks here have gotten the sides all wrong. The real sides are the rich and the people, and as long as the rich have us killing and hating each other, they are winning. That's who's winning - a small cadre of international oligarchy that cares not for borders, nations, religions, genders or ethnicities. Russians and Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans, we are all losing because we keep thinking that the rich and us common people can ever conceivably be on the same side.

[@thinksimon]

@@olegkosygin2993 “The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either - but right through every human heart.” Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

[@CloneDAnon]

*Again more pro-Ukraine propaganda and misrepresentation (and fake news).* The Russians have not said that they have "destroyed" the Ukrainian military, since the largest Ukrainian fighting force is still in Donbas (which is the next phase of operation). But it is undeniable that the Russians have crippled Ukrainian military infrastructure and caused massive casualties on Ukrainian troops (like in Mariupol alone). The problem with people like you is that you viewed this conflict from the lens of Russia wanting to occupy most of Ukraine and overthrowing the Kiev government, which has NEVER been stated as an objective by any Russian officials. US officials admitted that Russia asking for "military help" from China (and Kazakhstan) was FAKE! Also he does not even take into consideration that Ukraine is getting MORE military equipment constantly, including tanks and Bayraktars than it had during day 1 of this conflict escalation (including some captured stuff). What makes this guy look a total fool is him expecting the Russians to take Kiev with just 30k light troops (who did not even properly secure their rear)! This is not a war to occupy Ukraine and overthrow the government! It is SPECIAL OPERATION which he even said further in the video! Total Russian troops + their allies were just 200K (150K + 50k DPR and LPR militia)! Ukrainian military size even before the conflict escalated was 260K and now it also has all the mercenaries, mobilized and volunteers in addition! Hell, just the size of the Ukrainian force in Donbas alone is MASSIVE! Let alone would had been defending Kiev! Russia would need to conduct its own mobilization if it would want to actually take most of Ukraine! Also they certainly level Ukrainian cities one by one via strategic bombers using conventional bombs! Then he claims that the Russian "dumb bombs" are not accurate? They are used via computer targeting! The Russian pilots say that they can drop dumb bombs with 5 meter accuracy against stationary targets! Basically his bias is that "everything the Russians say is a lie", yet he does not lay down a single actual criticism on Ukraine (only Russia this, Russia that). Another problem with these "visually confirmed" kills is that they are often showing destroyed Russian / Soviet vehicles from OTHER conflicts or from before 2022, even often using wrecked or abandoned Ukrainian T64's, T72's and T80's in order to pass them off as Russian ones. Russia DOES constantly propose diplomatic solution to the conflict that includes demilitarization and neutrality. It is pretty damn solid argument: that if Ukraine is supposedly not interested in attacking Russia or Russian interests, then why would it need the 2nd largest army in Europe in the first place then? Modern Ukraine in no way fascist? Yes, the Azov battalion is totally just some "patriots" and not damn neo-Nazis who torture and kill people! Sadly it is the TRUTH that neo-Nazis are a major part of Ukrainian military and police apparatus. Even Western mainstream media reported about this during the last 8 years! Obviously the Russians do realize that this is the most hardest of their objectives. Some of the key issues in Russian demands to combat this is to return the Russian language as one of the official languages in Ukraine and stop the persecution of pro-Russian people in Ukraine. For Russia, Finland and Sweden are WORTH trading for Ukraine in terms of NATO.

[@olegkosygin2993]

@@CloneDAnon you are vastly overestimating the ability of the Russian gov't to think ahead. They think two steps ahead, tops. They did not expect Ukraine to not surrender Kiev within a week, they did not expect the turncoats they bribed to give over the cities (like what happened in Kherson where a crucial bridge was not destroyed) to fail to deliver, they did not expect the West to publicly announce the invasion plan beforehand. I've been watching the TV - the propaganda was swinging wildly in mid-February. They were clearly unprepared and their pre-recorded bullshit broadcasts had to be doctored with lower-budget new additions before being broadcast. The West has miscalculated itself, however, when it assumed that the Russian population wasn't aware that the TV is pure bullshit. We know, there's just nothing we can do. There are like 20% of people who are truly brainwashed into supporting whatever UnRu comes up with, the rest just want to be left alone for once.

[@CloneDAnon]

@@olegkosygin2993 That is not an argument that "TV is bullshit". TV is bullshit equally EVERYWHERE, even more so in West because West also censors everyone with even the slightest opposing views. Your biggest problem is that you people really think that the Russians cannot use the INTERNET!

[@josephmann6675]

Well done sir. This was an excellent topic to address. I appreciate all your efforts, but this is simple enough to be shared with less interested folks. Great points. Nicely stated.

[@JanHans]

KZbin channel of the month. Thanks a lot for those great analytical videos.

[@glemtom2dage]

In a sense I think Ukraine already won one of its main objectives of the war. That is to define itself to the rest of the world as a unique independent state and not just some insignificant puppet of greater Russia. Even if Russia succeeds in capturing a large part of Ukraine, it would be obvious to anyone that the area in question, belongs to Ukraine and not Russia. Hence there is justified reason to support Ukraine in the future.

[@eirikarnesen9691]

sadly, the ukrainians are simply wasting their lives in a pointless war to hide the collapse of the international trade system. by all means, it honorable of them to figth like this, but they are simply sacraficial lambs for a much larger narative. ironically their figthing, will kill millions/billions of people world wide. if they just said no nato, none of thoose people would have starved

[@saumyacow4435]

Yes its interesting when compared to Russia occupying Crimea and how the west waved that away and the western media went yeah ok, that's logically part of Russia.

[@peternystrom921]

100% great comment,

[@davidlinehat4657]

This is a really great point. A couple of years ago, when Trump pulled that bullshit trying to withhold aid, most people I know (i live in washington, d.c.) didn't have any understanding of Ukrainian people, their government, their relationship with Russia and their strive for national autonomy/credibility. This conflict has proven their mettle in every imaginable way. PS, i apologize if my comment sounds pompous. It's a shame that we didn't take time to get a better understanding of Ukraine before, and I apologize for our ignorance. This war has definitely proved the Ukrainian government's legitimacy to the world. After the conflict is over, I see good days ahead

[@5peciesunkn0wn]

My favorite part is that Russia seems to think that a newly-made sovereign nation that Russia just used as a puppet and basically a meat-shield against NATO, not to mention literally starved millions to death in to then move in regular Russians into the "freed space" *coughcoughlibenstraummuch?coughcough*, would just stand aside and let Russia make them a puppet again.

[@PalleRasmussen]

For the record; Russian was *not* forbidden in Donbas. The Ukrainian language is the State language of Ukraine. According to the article 10 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the State has to ensure the comprehensive development and functioning of the Ukrainian language in all spheres of social life throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. Other languages spoken in Ukraine are guaranteed constitutional protection. Russian is recognized as the language of a national minority.

[@idoitonastick8689]

From what I gather, Zelensky also is a russian speaker.

[@SianaGearz]

@@idoitonastick8689 as someone who grew up in Krivy Rih he certainly is, it is his mother tongue, though his Ukrainian is excellent too. Also about 70% of Ukrainians are fluent in Russian vs about 60% fluent in Ukrainian, so there is a huge overlap. But already in the 90s, it was impossible to get your paperwork done in Russian language in the Russian speaking regions, any government forms that you'd have to fill would be in Ukrainian, which was particularly then a massive inconvenience, we basically had to use a dictionary as if we were foreigners, if we never properly learned Ukrainian, which, why would we during the reign of Soviet Union? Ukraine has struggled a lot with defining its national identity and went the route of being anti Russian. But that was always so artificial. They say nations get forged in wars, and the recent years with attacks by Putin for sure brought all Ukrainians together towards a common purpose. Perhaps when this is all done and dusted, there can be reforms to make life more comfortable to Russian speaking Ukrainians. We don't need an artificial identity any longer. A happy patchwork family is fine.

[@RobinTheBot]

@@SianaGearz I love your optimism, but they're not going to be less Anti-Russia.

[@SianaGearz]

@@RobinTheBot no, nor should we. Some Russian speaking Ukrainians turned away from supporting Russia over what happened in Donbas, saw the Russian operatives, others as soon as the first Russian shells reached for their city or another Russian speaking city, with the majority of the front being concentrated there. Language this or that, more Ukrainian than ever.

[@alexjgilpin]

@@SianaGearz Oof, the need to fill forms out in a language you do not understand sounds like a massive headache. There's plenty of multilingual countries. Canadians have English and French, for example, and Europe is an absolute mix of linguistic families. Ukraine had no excuse to make forms exclusively one language. After reading your post I think I'm starting to realize why this invasion *actually* happened. If the Russian-speaking people of Ukraine started to side against Putin due to the war in Donbas there's a sociological rift in identity that's beginning to occur. A "West" Russian and an "East" Russian so to speak, where "East" Russians trust Kremlin-linked sources while "West" Russians don't. If Ukraine was to join the EU after its large Russian-speaking population became "West" Russian then, in a decade or two, they could become a cultural powerhouse that would directly conflict with the Kremlin's own sphere of information. It would be much easier for Putin to invade and destroy the Russian-Ukrainian cultural core now than try to compete with them for the minds of Russians *in Russia* in the future.

[@nigeljames1109]

Thank you for taking the time to present this fascinating insight into what is really happening in Ukraine. Your series of lectures provide a remarkably detailed explanation of what is going on. Please keep them coming.

[@jonA9411]

"German rearmament" Congratz Russia! That should have been near impossible, but you managed to create that for yourself, Mr Putin.

[@randomguy-tg7ok]

Yep. Congratulations, Russia, you managed to undo one of your main achievements from the Great Patriotic War.

[@bastisonnenkind]

@@randomguy-tg7ok Germany has been already rearmed in the cold war (on both side of the iron curtain). It just seemed to not have any enemies that would attack it after the fall of the Soviet Union so it let the costly army go down the drain.

[@justanotherfella4478]

shouldn't have rebuild germany in the first place

[@bastisonnenkind]

@@justanotherfella4478 And then what?

[@Dumertone]

One more thing - I would advise against using the "Great Patriotic War" phrase. It's an integral instrument in Soviet (and later - Russian) propagandistic efforts. Naming this theater of WW2 a GPW (1941-1945) allows them to distance themselves from Soviet actions in 1939-1941 - which were much less "noble": 1) They split Poland with their best friend and close ally - Nazi Germany 2) They supported Nazi Germany economically and supplied them via trade with everything they needed (even as they were bombing London during the Blitz) - effectively rendering the trade embargo useless. 3) They cynically attacked Finland in the Winter War. There is no Great Patriotic War - only a pathetic effort to sweep the shady shit under the carpet and parade themselves as the "noble defenders of Europe". "GPW" is not a separate entity - but just another episode in the WW2. Some roots of currently ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022 are seated within this historiographical schism. Current sentiment of "moral superiority" among Russian population is based precisely on their ignorance and refusal to accept and apologize for their crimes in the 20th century.

[@barrag3463]

I always felt saying that ukraine was "filled with nazis" was related to such imagery.

[@artnull13]

Glasnost gone…

[@mikhailmikhailov8781]

@@barrag3463 It has to do also with some concrete things - you cannot deny that Ukraine has military chapters openly parading their love for Bandera and other nazi collaborators. This of course does not mean Ukraine is a fascist state by any means or that the war is justified - you don't start a war over one batallion of nutjobs.

[@imaginarystranger1974]

In Ukraine GPW is taught as simply a part of WW2, with no "distancing" from the aggression and crimes USSR commited before that.

[@PerfectDeath4]

@@barrag3463 The Soviet Union saw "Nazism" as being "anti-Bolshevik", "anti-communist", and later in the RF as "anti-Russian." So, when Ukraine makes laws around services speaking Ukrainian first, Russian if asked, that is considered "genocide" by the RF.

[@chasg5648]

So glad to hear you will continue with the military / industrial / political content. Your clear and thoughtful analyses are a welcome respite from the fare emanating from big media.

[@vreausom15]

it's pretty simple answer: everybody is losing.

[@alexandarvoncarsteinzarovi3723]

When you think about the Imperium of Man right here and now, is not so bad,

[@aguila503]

Wrong. 🙈 The guys making and selling weapons, uniforms and all that goes into killing one another… and… the guys selling news, likes and horror to a very hungry audience, are winning big time!!! To the tune of Billions of $! War business is Booming!! That applies to both sides of any conflict.

[@dansmith1661]

The war profiteers are making bank by supporting Ukrainian Nazis. If the west stayed out of this, there would only be Ukraine that is losing.

[@briancarroll3541]

not Raytheon!!!

[@zendalier]

except for the war profiteers

[@panzerkami2381]

I'd like to add one thing to Myth 1: asking for help "help", specifically more munitions, can actually be a sign that you are doing unexpectedly WELL. If you are expending lots of ammo that means you have something to shoot at and opportunities to do so. A military unit that is doing well is going to use up more munitions than one that isn't doing much at all. The case in point here is anti-tank weapons. The Ukrainians are burning through tons of these - because they are destroying tons of Russian tanks.

[@alltat]

Especially with so many ambushes happening. If you need more man-portable missiles, it means that something actually drove into your ambush and you lived to tell the tale.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

Also having firepower snowballs if you have superior firepower that gives you a lot of power, so overkill in weapons being sent to you is what everyone wants.

[@Wolfen443]

The rate of Russian armor taken out by these Man Pad Weapons is actually lower than the image that Western Media wants to create. There are expert reports about how most targets survive at least one if the damage is not critical. Then there are the misses and the fatality rate for these teams has to be high too in the Ukraine side.

[@AllisterCaine]

@@Wolfen443 Not sure where you got that from but i tend not to believe somebody talking about how MANPADS are used against tanks....

[@skalt10109]

Or it could mean you are bad shots..........:D

[@lolo932]

Your content is absolutely amazing because you're not a KZbinr or an armchair historian/general with a camera. We can tell you're a college educated military industry insider because you're eloquent, objective and professional whilst sprinkling some bad contemporary memes in the middle of it. Makes you very relatable and engaging, I hope you keep making these and hopefully expand on other conflicts in the future. Thanks for all the education you provide!

[@jnnfccc1794]

to be fair The Armchair Historian is a legit good KZbinr and historian

[@lolo932]

@@jnnfccc1794 I didn't mean him personally, I meant more in general

[@jnnfccc1794]

@@lolo932 it is funny how the comment lined up so well with him so we'll 🤣 i couldn't help myself

[@MagicSquid]

This is some of the best Ukraine/Russia war analysis I've been able to find. Please keep it up!

[@LloydGM]

Thank you for such a comprehensive, unbiased, data-based evaluation, and I'm looking forward to your updates.

[@DarkStarPast]

Consider the topic of long term corruption on the Russia military. The irony of where Ukraine was 2014 and is now. It takes time to turn it around. Thank you for your informed effort.

[@ricardoospina5970]

Ukraine didn't have batteries for their tanks. It's strange how motivated you can get if your neighbor tries to kill you.

[@taylorwest4096]

Giving Ukraine 8 years to prepare for this was one of Putins biggest blunders. US went from inexperienced regional power to superpower in 4 years in ww2.

[@davethompson3326]

It may explain the shortages of consumables - food, fuel, medical supplies, spares etc.

[@B0neTV]

I absolutely think you should continue with this content, I enjoy your subjective commentary about this subject and frankly this type of quality analysis is totally needed.

[@blackwater4100]

To be honest, the "visually confirmed" alone is a pretty impressive number. Such losses within a few weeks in just mind bending. Losing 427 tanks in 6 weeks is insane!

[@JAnx01]

As soon as I saw the trains full of T-72s back in January and February and heard Ukraine was getting all these top attack missiles from the west, I knew this was going to be the greatest tank massacre in recent history because those top attack warheads are capable of 500-750mm penetration and the top armor on the T-72 and any other tank really, is like an egg shell and there's isn't even any ERA.

[@diatonicdelirium1743]

These Russian tanks have their ammo stored in a ring around the turret for the auto-loader, thus 'saving' one crew member. As a consequence, any penetrating hit literally blows the turret off in the secondary explosion of the ammunition!

[@miriamweller812]

Ukraine loves to film their destroyed tanks and sell them as Russian ones. They even got pretty much a movie set for their PR bullshit for that, using some of their destroyed tanks over and over again in different videos, always selling them as Russian tanks.

[@KnightofAges]

Russian (and former Soviet) doctrine is different from its Western counterpart. Former Soviet tanks were made to overwhelm enemies by force of numbers. Thus they are far weaker than their NATO counterparts (and correspondingly much cheaper to make). So any military operation naturally incurs the loss of many tanks (Russia also has far more tanks than every western nation). For similar results, just see the Winter War against Finland in 1939-40 or the attack on Grozny in 1995. And if 427 tanks in 6 weeks is "insane", remember the USSR lost over 20.000 tanks over the course of 6 months in 1941.

[@blackwater4100]

@@KnightofAges that's right. thing is, this strategy is completely outdated by now and didnt even work well against Ukraine. And yes, 427 is insane compared to practically no relevant territorial gain. as the war continues, the number will get higher.

[@falatoronto]

Great analysis. KZbinrs like Perun are giving us much better insights on this tragic war than the legacy media. Thank you for taking the time to study and share your thoughts.

[@dimas3829]

they don't. KZbin bans anyone channel relatively on Russian side so you can't find anyone unbias on this platform.

[@curmudgeon1933]

@@dimas3829 . Which platform do you suggest to get an unbiased viewpoint on the conflict?

[@dimas3829]

@@curmudgeon1933 Telegram seems ok for the moment, it has plenty of channels with opposite opinions on the conflict.

[@MysticRL]

I'm glad that despite Russia saying complete bullshit you're still committed to objectively analyzing it instead of simply dismissing their words.

[@cultureabroad8983]

@@ryanjones3043 same for Ukraine

[@maryginger4877]

Go back to that segment, hit pause, look carefully at those figures again - especially the Blue Bar... confirmed kills... For example Russia has only claimed 2 confirmed kills for helicopters - I'm not joking, go back and look for yourselves, vast difference between confirmed and claimed.

[@Betterhose]

Another frequently mentioned possible motive for Russia was to preserve its monopoly as Europe's supplier of natural gas. Ukraine has some considerable gas reserves in its east and in its EEZ in the Black Sea that could rival Russia. But Russia has to keep Europe dependent. However, Europe is trying harder than ever before to become independent of Russian energy imports.

[@oscarbayton1118]

New oil reserves where found off the coast of Crimea, Russia doesn't want that coastline in Ukrainian hands

[@TheGeeoff]

I've read this too. It will be a shame if we have another oil war.

[@jimmyringz2550]

Hard to be the main supplier if no one wants to buy from you because…you know

[@Betterhose]

@@jimmyringz2550 That was my point. One possible reason (goal) for Russia was to preserve its position as Europe's main energy supplier. But now that Europe is determined to stop buying any oil or gas from Russia, that plan backfired completely.

[@muttley7196]

It would make Ukraine the 14th largest producer of natural gas! She’ll were drilling for it 2014! And guess what year the war started in Ukraine? Yep 2014! Go figure hey ?

[@saumyacow4435]

One point I'd raise about stated goals is that there is a difference between having achieved these goals in fact and being able manipulate public perception. For example, Russia could win Donbas and spin this as a victory on both the "demilitarisation" and "denazification" issues. Doesn't matter what the truth is - this is Russia after all. On the substance of these, there is no "demilitarisation" without loss of sovereignty. I believe Zelensky commented as such regarding the negotiations at the time (a couple of weeks ago). Yes there have been negotiations over issues like limiting types of weapons (iirc) but this never lead anywhere because Russia was acting in extreme bad faith. Of course, the next step in negotiations is "security guarantees". (Guarantees of Ukraine's security). Zelensky tried this through the idea of 3rd party guarantees. Predictably, this crashed and burned. The problem here is that what Putin wants is a negotiated outcome that opens the window for the next war. Donbas for instance would always be a staging point. Next logical step would be the southern coastline. And so on. The problem here is that we're not dealing with logic or rational negotiators. We're dealing with Putin. And there's only one thing he understands - force.

[@slemstore]

Fully agree with this assessment. I don't see the possibility of any permanent resolution to this conflict as long as the Putin regime remains in power. Most optimistic resolution would be a somewhat humiliating ceasefire roughly corresponding to the pre 24/2 lines, and Putins inevitable rearmament efforts will eventually sink the russian economy.

[@wino99999]

@@slemstore added to the fact that Russia was actually in a War and not a Special operation and that a significant amount of its troops and hardware was not returning to their home, which means a lot of Russians will know the truth that they had been lied to! So add civil unrest and internal pressure to the mix..... not to mention a lot of very unhappy oligarchs who have lost funds, and their luxury yachts. The devaluation of the Russian Rouble, lack of western produce on shelves, inability to sell Russian Gas or Oil (except to China and India). Severe shortage of foreign currency not to mention investment..... I know Sanctions by themselves are a poor substitute for better aid to Ukraine (Foreign military hardware and troops), but the long term result of such sanctions could quite possibly keep Russia stuck to 1990's hardware and Soviet hardships - well Poo-tin wanted a return to Soviet Era control, looks like he might achieve part of that dream!

[@Tamachii12]

@@slemstore Ceasefires would only give more time for them to regroup and kill even more civilians on the occupied territories

[@Raikenbolai]

The assumption that putin is not acting rationally is where the west falls down in its analysis almost every time. Putin is acting rationally and pursuing those stayed objectives. But I will agree that russia is preparing for a later conflict which is why they are preventing a full NATO encirclement of russia. But once again this is entirely rational

[@MrAapasuo]

@@Raikenbolai and yet Russia has no one but itsf to blame for the "encirclement" as behaving like this, enforcing your will trough force, is exactly what drives former soviet states to join NATO for protection

[@just_another_person6421]

Bless Your Perfection Praise the true creators 🙌

[@090giver090]

Also few points about how Russia could reconstituted itself during the war: Yes, they did so in Winter War and WW2, but we should not forget the facts that during the Winter War Finland stood completely alone and had no means to replace its losses (mainly material) between phases of russian attacks. Soviet Union was rallying after 1941 debacles with HEAVY support from US and UK (e.g. the Red Airforse had large amount of western planes to recuperate losses and even larger amount of western material supply to rebuilt it's air power) I doubt Russia now has a capacity to ramp up the production to wartime levels at its own (there are already tank factories stopping due to lack of imported parts) and some old equipment like T-55 even in large numbers are not in a good use against modern systems being supplied to Ukraine from the west.

[@thechancellor3715]

Good observation about the only two tank factories shut down soon after the sanctions revealed that so many critical components are/we're of foreign manufacture, especially electronics and precision bearings. That leaves the question of how many usable spare remain in inventory. Related issue of replacement or supplementary heavy equipment from reserve storage has to be now questionable as well. The suicide of the general commanding the reserve armor upon his discovery that 9 out 10 tanks were inoperable due to extreme scavenging of parts for sale on the black market. This sort of theft is and has been endemic for a time. So what is the actual count of combat ready equipment? Surely not a mere ten percent but quite possibly a number, say 50%...and distribution. Some depot commanders might be pure as the driven snow :>) So it might well be that there has been a discovery that there is an insufficient quantity for even repair parts for the recovered Russian equipment. Was this a factor in the retreat from Kyiv?

[@090giver090]

@@thechancellor3715 "So it might well be that there has been a discovery that there is an insufficient quantity for even repair parts for the recovered Russian equipment. Was this a factor in the retreat from Kyiv?" Maybe, but I personally attribute the retreat from Kiev to the fact that BTGs near it have severe logistical and operational problems. Army on the west bank of Dnieper was supplied by the only main road and during the end of March there was a serious push of Ukrainian army to Ivankiv threatening to cut this road off. Having it's forces retreated back to Belarus may have been explained by Russia as "ending of phase 1", having them surrounded and desperately clawing out of a cauldron - not so much :) By loosing at the west bank any presence at the east bank of Dniepr lose it's point (and those forces' supply routs were also being constantly hit by ukrainians operating from Kharkov and Sumy areas). Regarding their equipment status we shall see for upcoming battle of Donbass. If there will be photos of destroyed T-55s, 62s and/or older variants of T-72s then it's clearly going south for Russian army.

[@MonkeyBusinessMan]

You make some good points but Finland wasn’t completely alone during the winter war, Sweden sent huge amounts of weapons and ammunitions. Machine guns, guns, anti air defense, airplanes, millions of rounds of ammo etc. I think Finland had 4 anti air systems when Russia attacked and Sweden sent a 100 more for instance. Sweden was also the reason that the reserves could be armed at all at the beginning by sending 50,000 guns to them. And there were also 10,000 swedish volunteers out of which 8000 saw action in Finland. None of this takes away any of the courage of the fins of course. Just saying that they did receive at least some help in that respect. Finlands sak är vår (Finlands cause is our cause) was the motto in Sweden at the time and I think til this day most swedes know those words.

[@MonkeyBusinessMan]

Forgot to mention that Sweden sent a third of it’s air force to Finland. And also repaired american, italian, english and french airplanes to send to Finland. In total 142 airplanes were sent. Quite interesting considering how reluctant NATO is now to send 20 fighter jets to Ukraine (which I think they should).

[@jerryle379]

Wonder what russian using import part ? I know t90 using thermal sight from Belarus but now switch to domestic variant that the only import stuff

[@matthewholadaypiano]

This channel remains the best, most level-headed war analysis I have seen since Feb 24. As others have said, I hope you enjoy making this, as it is a great service to provide.

[@ReanuKeeves69]

I really appreciate this OSINT analysis. I'm a third year uni-student and we've only just started to cover types of intelligence analysis and, I always recommend to my peers your videos. Thank you, truly.

[@simplicius11]

That OSINT is a crp and one can easily remove one third out. Multiple 'tanks' are photographed or recorded from different angles and many are presented as Russian but are actually Ukrainian. Not to mention the complete wrecks that are all presented as Russian, while it is practically impossible to identify.

[@navinnakwek5851]

@@simplicius11 Seeing how meticulous the group at Oryx is I highly doubt that, if you want to challenge their figures you can go ahead and contact them directly. Every one of their figures has photographic evidence that they have made sure isn't a reshoot from a different angle and they are very open to people correcting them with sufficient evidence.

[@simplicius11]

@@navinnakwek5851 They are banning people who provide them the evidence. I noticed a dozen of 'doubles' without much effort.

[@Страус-к3ш]

@@simplicius11 Give concrete examples. The burden of proof is on you.

[@ciscodiablo]

You present with a high degree of impartiality and your assessments are very intelligently put. You are obviously passionate about your work but you keep emotion out of your content. Thank you for everything. You are now on my regular watch list. Greetings from Bundaberg.

[@Sightbain.]

Your content inspired me to do my own research and planning for a presentation on an overview of the Canadian Armed Forces post invasion of Ukraine. I have it sketched out but recording and uploading it is the scary part haha. I really enjoy these videos and they provide some really good insight into these topics that nobody else seems to be delving into, combining your videos with Ward Carrols perspective on the air war has been really enlightening and entertaining. Thanks for putting this content out and I look forward to similar stuff in the future.

[@Joker-yw9hl]

Would be interested to see, bud!

[@markoconnell804]

Retreat from Kiev was not a military retreat. That typically would be to wreck maximum damage on the enemy as they advanced - Make the enemy pay to advance. Russia did not do this. They just fled.

[@Dysputant]

They killed civilians as fast as they could, so does it counts as "maximum damage" ?

[@p_serdiuk]

It was. They mined the retreat paths, made ambushes, and maintained a rear guard. It was a decent example of a retreat. But this makes Bucha even worse, because since the officers clearly maintained command and cohesion throughout the retreat, then the atrocities were committed with their full knowledge and approval.

[@crhu319]

@@p_serdiuk we will never know and no one will ever be charged without a full independent investigation starting now.

[@p_serdiuk]

@@crhu319 wdym we will never know? There is no reason for Ukrainian troops to lie about the way Russians retreated. Both being routed and being competent makes them look bad in the end. Ukrainians and Russians agree that this was an organized retreat and that Ukrainians suffered some losses in pursuit.

[@p_serdiuk]

@@crhu319 And there can't be an "independent investigation" since Russia will always claim that any related organization is not truly independent. Just like those who deny some other genocides, past and present. There are numerous photos of dozens of Western journalists and investigators present there from the very first day, and today the head of the European Commission visited as well. The West will know every detail.

[@zenmail42]

I am so glad to hear that you will continue to produce defense content. Everyday I check you channel to see if you've posted new content. To me at least, you are the most cogent and thorough analyst I've found during this war. Your effort, incite, and work in so very appreciative. In fact, your recent content will ensure that I watch many if not all of your gamin content too! Cheers sir!

[@creepyoldlady2995]

Thank you so very much for this! I don't have the know-how to gather and interpret these things for myself, and the only other information comes from military experts on various news shows who are so politically oriented that it's difficult to determine what their opinions are based on. You are a breath of fresh air, which is an ironic metaphor since I'm complimenting you on being so down-to-earth. ;) In any case, I am so glad that KZbin brought your channel to my attention and I will be watching every video you produce. Thanks and kudos!

[@shinyary2]

You are rapidly becoming one of my favorite channels on youtube. Every time you drop one of these videos I'm excited to learn. I hope you keep doing this after the current crisis ends; I'd love to hear analysis of historical conflicts and any current conflicts that come up after Ukraine.

[@bodegacoast]

Thanks for describing Putin's war as "batshit", that's the best description.

[@Duke_of_Lorraine]

The argument about "Ukraine is receiving help so Ukraine is losing" is also hypocritical. Putin is begging for foreign mercenaries left and right, notably a large number of Syrians.

[@annpyingshek4693]

Pretty sure they volunteer themselves, Russia isn't asking anyone for any help yet.

[@MsZeeZed]

@@annpyingshek4693 Winners ask for ammunition is the point, losers ask for a ride.

[@MsZeeZed]

Strangely the Syrians are still a little busy with their own war.

[@MonMalthias]

@@MsZeeZed That's because the Americans and their proxies, the Kurds, and the Turks, are still illegally occupying the oil fields and wheat fields of Syria. The Jihadis, meanwhile, are holed up in Idlib. Due to the Turkish presence the Syrians do not dare to push into it: it would be a massacre on both sides, and it has the potential to start WW3 as Turkey is a NATO member.

[@dolphin069]

@@annpyingshek4693 believe the hype. They promising Syrians riches beyond their imagination ( couple thousand dollars) for REMF roles and even more for fighting. The Russians won’t actually pay them anything, but it gets the wide eyed foot through the door of the Tupolev and into a shallow grave.

[@karinschultz5409]

Great content. I appreciate your hardwork in producing these videos with balanced analysis. Thank you for lifting the "fog of war".

[@igorlukyan206]

You and Animarchy are hands down, the BEST video essay interpreters regarding this ongoing war. Much love from Ukraine! 🇺🇦

[@drewstanley7606]

It’s funny how the best sources come from such obscure channels, like animarchy as you said, this channel, even Lazer pig, just goes to show the awesomeness of this platform and format in the modern day

[@chamonix4658]

stay safe brother

[@milessumida6770]

Turns out that a skill set of over analyzing fictional militaries can be easily retooled to analyze actual militaries.

[@vinnypopadop]

Perun is following in the proud Prussian tradition of "gaming it out."

[@cah11111]

@@milessumida6770 I could be wrong, but my impression from his first video in this series was that Perun has actual professional experience on the civil planning side of national defense. Obviously not as relevant as literally being top military brass with live experience in strategic planning, but it makes him more qualified than 99% of the other people on KZbin posting hot take videos every 12-24 hours of true.

[@ChrisRaynorMD]

Another fantastic breakdown Perun. Thanks for your analysis. With all the propaganda on both sides it is difficult to get a true sense of where we are at with this conflict.

[@steveperreira5850]

I agree with the analysis of Perun…… although both sides lie about what is going on, the side that is run by authoritarian dictators, In every case they lie the most profoundly and consistently

[@FozzQuaker]

There's 3 sides to this War...I mean Special Military Operation... The Ukrainian Side, The Russian Side and the absolute truth

[@nomdeguerre7265]

@John Osman It seems every side here is using the same rule: "the truth is whatever serves the interests of the party". That's no surprise. Anything different would have been a surprise.

[@FozzQuaker]

@John Osman So istina, The Invasion of Ukraine is a War and Pravda, Its a Special Military Operation

[@vaikjsf34a]

@@steveperreira5850 One could argue especially after the last 2 years that both sides are run by authoritarian dictators.

[@timothygourley5690]

People only enjoy this content because you've done so well presenting it, please keep it up, you're educating, eye opening and thought provoking

[@Lunar-Requiem]

Never thought I would be relying on an youtuber I get in-depth Dominions 5 guides for my info on the Ukraine-Russia war, but you're killing it with the analysis. Please Perun, keep up with the conflict and make updates when able.

[@bryanclouse9579]

Dude....you need to learn to think critically and stop swallowing this garbage. It is horseshit, to use the vernacular of this propagandist.

[@AnimatedBiomedical]

Thanks for your presentation. It's refreshing to watch something well researched and avoiding sensationalism and clickbate. I wish all reporting was of this quality - keep up the good work.

[@tuanecho]

I'm glad this has blown up for you. Having learnt so much from your content and also being proud that a small Australian gaming channel is teaching others about military industrial analysis. I hope you a long channel life once this horrible invasion is done with. Well done mate well done!

[@Horizontalvertigo]

You always love to see a local boy doin' good

[@sErgEantaEgis12]

The whole thing about victory being relative reminds me of the debate around Vietnam that the USA didn't "lose" and just pulled out doesn't matter, Vietnam's war goals were "reunite South and North Vietnam and force foreign powers out". Even if Vietnam suffered disproportionately high casualties they succeeded in their war goals.

[@rrpearsall]

Great analogy.. The biggest losers were the American poor and middle class and all Vietnamese and most south east Asians The winners were the American Deep State CIA Big Pharma selling opium/heroin as in Afghanistan, the Military Industrial Complex war profiteering.. and Big Oil as Ukraine is a fossil fuel war.. Just follow the money... Unless there's a regime change on either sides..or Ukrainian neutrality.. Only the wealthy Ruling class won. It's not that complicated

[@swedhgemoni8092]

Don't tell the boomers this - they hate that all their "but muh cervix" was ultimately useless.

[@sokinguyen6379]

Yes im vietnamese and i can confirm that. All of u pls just watch Hearts & Mind 1974 and judge for yourself. We are all being fooled by the US goverment and their allies. They never stop after VN wars. All they want is to create chaos in important geological nations and make them slaught against their own people in order to compete with US rival enemy. They need a battlefield cause they do not want war in their homeland. Nowaday they still using media to bait us whoever think follow US against China will have prosperity, human’s right etc,… we could be in the same situation as Ukrainian if they create enough riot inside our country.

[@stuartdollar9912]

Something that conveniently is never discussed by the dead-enders who believe the US didn't lose the war.

[@rrpearsall]

@@stuartdollar9912 I think we have been Algorjizm'd... can read your reply in notifications but YT deleted your message along with 4 others when clicking on the comment thread.. just curious if deleted your message and can see the others? Time for rokfiñ and řumble

[@OldE5]

I have a suggestion for a follow up video: Tell us about the military strengths of countries like Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Hungary. I'd also like an assessment of their political situations and military improvements, if any. I'm not seeing videos of our NATO partners who will be in the middle of an expanded war. I'd like to know more about who we are partnered with if it all hits the fan.

[@nailboard6492]

"Zelensky asking for aid = trouble" is an easy one to debunk because Russia asked for help over the same conflict.

[@allangibson2408]

Russia asked for military RATIONS from China. That is a massive logistics failure if you can’t feed the troops you ALREADY have.

[@Jandau85]

You really have a knack for this kind of content, providing informative overviews that aren't too shallow, but also don't ramble on indefinitely. You are well spoken, insightful and inject an appropriate amount of humor into the proceedings to liven things up without being crass and tasteless. Keep it up!

[@VeilingSun]

27:07 "Remember, rocket ammunition is incredibly heavy." Me who have no military experience or knowledge at all: Why yes of course. How could I forget?

[@BrianSmith-oc8vk]

You are well worth listening to. Thank You

[@grampsinsl5232]

From my many years of doing ops analysis, let me support your "supposition" about Kiev not being a feint as some are saying. Feints are executed for two main reasons. First, to feel out an enemy's strength in an area where there's no other way to do it; this wouldn't require a 40-mile-long convoy of vehicles, so we can rule that out. Second, to trick an enemy into committing forces to a certain area of lesser interest in order to weaken them in another area of greater interest so that an attack in that other area can be made with more likelihood of success; but no such attack ever took place, and in any case the capital city isn't going to be a "lesser" area to begin with. So the feint claim makes no military sense at all in this case.

[@benhatcher2603]

There's an oil field in the east and offshore gas on both sides of Crimea. If Russia can capture the coast, they'll have claim to all of the offshore gas which will prevent Ukraine from competing with their energy play and by land locking them will significantly diminish their ability to sell grain to the world. Putin can't have a prosperous democracy next door. So, either he needs to end their democracy or kill their prosperity.

[@edmundcowan9131]

Agree but what are your credentials.

[@IFTALES]

One way to distinguish a feint is by the amount of forces committed. A feint is a deceptive maneuver, meaning you pretend to commit to an attack with a small group, which draws the forces of the enemy in a greater number than you committed, then you reverse course leaving them over committed to make your real attack with the full force somewhere else. The Russians committed more troops than Ukraine did to Kiev and at least half their forces where there. This isn't a feint. A feint is a fake out maneuver, the attack on Kiev for over a month is not a "light thrust" into an enemy territory to get a reaction. So to me definitionally this could not have been a feint, since it has none of the features of one. They did a text book encirclement on the whole country, but failed. So now they are giving up and focusing on the section they did well in.

[@greenmirror5555]

@@kallekallenen4346 and then Putin tied gold to the Ruble where sound money allows all individuals to pursue happiness through property...real property.

[@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368]

Yeah, you don’t feint on a capital when one of goals would clearly be to remove Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian regime. If that wasn’t a goal, then the war was a failure before it even started. All the sanctions imposed just to secure Donbas and Crimea, which Russia already held?

[@nibblrrr7124]

06:12 *Myth 1:* _"Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian military!"_ 19:18 *Myth 2:* _"Russia could turn this around easily!"_ 31:15 *Myth 3:* _"Ukraine has destroyed the Russian army!"_ 40:44 *Who is 'winning'?* - 53:28 *Channel update* - _Timestamps for each slide:_ - 00:00 - *INTRODUCTION* 00:30 - The info war rages on 02:06 - Illustrating the problem with 'who is winning' 02:50 - Can lead to scenarios where both sides 'win' 04:32 - What am I going to cover? 06:12 - *MYTH 1: "Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian military!"* 06:56 - Asking for help doesn't mean you're losing 09:22 - Russian kill claims are extensive 10:43 - And it's not just Russians deploying these figures 12:09 - Claims are rapidly approaching absurdity 15:55 - _"Kiev was a feint!"_ 19:18 - *MYTH 2: "Russia could turn this around easily!"* 20:22 - _"Russia could just flatten Ukraine!"_ 23:21 - _"Russia has a huge army it's not using!"_ 25:41 - _"They're showing restraint in the use of fires!"_ 28:06 - But what does this even mean? 31:15 - *MYTH 3: "Ukraine has destroyed the Russian army!"* 33:41 - Ukrainian potential overclaiming 36:31 - _"Ukraine is gaining tanks!"_ 40:44 - *WHO IS 'WINNING'?* - How to assess 41:59 - _Demilitarization_ 44:48 - _Denazification_ 46:12 - _The Donbass_ 47:55 - _Halting NATO expansion_ 50:46 - Conclusion 53:28 - *CHANNEL UPDATE*

[@RazgriZeroGaf]

Thank you

[@TheRagingPlatypus]

It has always been legal to speak Russian in Ukraine. It's literally in the Constitution. It even guarantees the right to speak Russian in schools, courts etc in areas where the Russian speaking population exceeds 10% of the total. So, no, this wouldn't be a victory as it was never an issue.

[@mtpstv94]

Yea, lol. Ukrainians have zero problem with Russian speaking. I've lived there for over a year, been on both sides of the country east and west. NO ONE had a problem with it. EVERYONE understood Russian. And they ALL used it interchangeably without problem. Not to mention in places like Kharkiv it's basically THE default language, but it doesn't mean those people want to be part of Russia because they for DAMN SURE do not. Especially now.

[@lastfirst7642]

Yeah this language thing being a problem is just russian propaganda. I'm in western Ukraine now, originally from kyiv, I have always only spoken russian and never had a problem.

[@andreainzaghi7373]

@@lastfirst7642 I agree that language is not a problem and let me add that I have never believed that Azov are Nazi. But that does not make NATO inferference more accettable and USA has been raping your country just like Russia.

[@NotShowingOff]

@@lastfirst7642 what about the two states declaring independence? What was that about?

[@alexxela9235]

Do Russian and Ukrainian have similar legal status in Ukraine?

[@craigdeandean4036]

Don’t care about the games you may review but your analysis of what is going on in Ukraine is great you have a new listener!

[@FirstDagger]

22:25 Also what most people don't know is that the Tu-95 is a cruise-missile aircraft and nuclear bomber, and that it cannot mount conventional bombs. If anybody has sources for Tu-95s being able to mount FAB-250 or FAB-500 feel free to post them as I haven't seen them.

[@tanveerhasan2382]

Really? That's sad.

[@lordgarak]

That does seem like something a few engineers and fabricators could fix in a matter of hours. At least to drop conventional munitions. Fabricating munitions mounts isn't magic. Making it super mass efficient is difficult. But if your willing to trade off some weight, it's just a matter of machining some mounting adapters. Arming and control systems are a bit more difficult but not impossible.

[@FirstDagger]

@@lordgarak ; Look up US drop tests and the failures, it isn't as easy as you make it out to be for aircraft flying fast. Either way Russia doesn't have the capacity for that right now.

[@LRRPFco52]

@@lordgarak It is far more involved than that. You have to do load and separation testing across the flight regime, but this shouldn’t be as difficult with a large bomber that uses internal bays. It is much more difficult for external carriage.

[@FirstDagger]

@@LRRPFco52 ; Internal bays designed for cruise missiles, which means that the mounts aren't where you would need them for dumb bombs.

[@Wurlstaur]

“It is not enough to win a war; it is more important to organize the peace.” ― Aristotle What happens after the war is won? George W. Bush aboard an aircraft carrier under a "mission accomplished" banner comes to mind, that was 2003.

[@NoSaysJo]

cringe

[@benniethejew]

Bush mission was to secure the price per barrel of oil for his father's business... so he wasn't lying to himself, just lying about what the mission was.

[@havocgr1976]

Hitler also had no plan on wtf he d do if he achieved peace.Starving whole occupied countries proved that.After all from who would he steal their resources next year?Dead people cant farm.

[@rick-potts]

Winning a war and securing a peace are indeed two very different things. Whilst the former can lead to the other, history would suggest that this would be the exception.

[@eirikarnesen9691]

the war will end when norway leaves nato, and a new non millitarized zone is created to buffer nato and russia. the zone will be maintained by a scandinavian council, primarily because they are safe on their peninsula, and respected by both sides

[@clariidfisherman3702]

Yep I am part of that audience that enjoys your very long slideshows. I listen to them whilst playing games and I find them very insightful and entertaining. Keep up the great work! I admire the detail in your videos!

[@RTD1947]

Absolutely THE BEST summation of the war I have heard!! Excellent job!! Valid and thoughtful points. Well worth a listen!!

[@SenorQuichotte]

I enjoy this spreadsheet warrior analysis. Much more insightful than those military clowns on CNN regurgitating what's already obvious. Good work.

[@celebrim1]

That "outside limits of that proposition" that you mention at around the 44:00 mark are precisely the point. There are plans already on the table by NATO that could see deliveries of weapon systems equal to those Ukraine started the war with in the next six to twelve weeks. And this fundamentally comes down to the problem that demilitarization does not and never has meant, "Destroying an opposing army". Germany was not demilitarized at the end of WWI or WWII by the destruction of its armed forces but rather by political imposition and most importantly occupation that prevented the reconstitution of that army. You make claims that "demilitarization" is a vague term, but in this concept it really isn't. It means that steps are taking that prevent Ukraine from having an armed forces, presumably similar to the steps taking that prevented Germany from having an armed forces - like occupation of the country with enough military and police force that reconstituting a formal military is impossible. To claim you had the goal of "demilitarization" is fundamentally to claim you had the goal of complete and total victory, because no nation willingly demilitarizes because it knows then that it is complete at your mercy afterwards. Which again, is more evidence that the attack on Kiev was never a feint, even aside from the problem that the largest concentration of force Russia applied was on Kiev (you don't feint generally with the larger force, but the smaller one). In point of fact, Kiev was the main target and Russia was applying a smaller holding force on the Donbass to prevent troops from redeploying to Kiev! PS: I love the "security perimeter of the security perimeter" argument. LOL. I wish I'd thought of that one. Good stuff.

[@zachhaigh5535]

You are entirely correct in your points, but "Demilitarization" is vague in the sense that Putin can claim victory on this objective whenever he wants using whatever metrics he chooses, and the Russian people, generally, will agree. "Denazification" is also not by western standards a vague term and there is clear precedent for the requirements and process for how to go about that (Nazi's exist, identify them, don't put in positions of power, educate on atrocities, etc.), but again Putin at any point can claim he has successfully completed this objective whenever he chooses.

[@TheAleatoriorandom]

You are rigth, but I think his point is more geared to the Russian narrative side of things. No one outside of Russia will believe Ukraine has been demilitarized because their army has been damaged or even destroyed, but he can sell that narrative to a oppressed and indoctrinated population and carry on with his regime like he can say he denazified Ukraine because soldiers from the azov battalion died or that it is a great achievement to stop Ukraine for joining NATO when it already was very unlikely that they would have joined before the war despite Ukraine's interest (there are several countries in the NATO membership programs waiting to enter that have been so for years while Ukraine isn't even part of that program, the Europeans powers wouldn't have wanted to risk their energy trade with Russia and even the US would have thought twice before including a country in an alliance that is currently fighting againts secessionist territories supported by a nuclear power). At the end of they day for Putin to maintain his position it doesn't need true success, just a loss that can be twisted to sound like success so he can save face and move on to something else.

[@vesas5214]

The Kiev adventure was a failure but I think they retreated (at least part of the reason) to get even some sort of win in the Donbass or south by focusing more power there. The Victory Day, which is a big thing for Russians, is only a month from now and they need something by then.

[@HrvojeBan]

@@zachhaigh5535 Yes, I think Putin will declare "denazification" is succesfully completed when and if Mariupol falls and Azov soldiers are destroyed/captured. He will ignore the fact that his attack on Ukraine has and will invigorate extreme nationalism and neo-Nazism in Ukraine (or more precisely extreme anti-Russism) for decades to come and Azov will have no problem inviting more soldiers into their ranks than they have had before and both Mariupol and Azov will and already have gained mythical status in the collective memory of the Ukrainian people.

[@celebrim1]

@@zachhaigh5535 Putin can claim whatever he wants and there will be a limited number of people both within Russia and without that will take him at his word, nod solemnly and say, "Yes, Russia won." But I think because of his propaganda prep, that Putin is going to find even that difficult. There are going to be people in Russia who ask, "Wait a minute, you said this was a Banderas regime in Ukraine. So if that is so, why are we leaving them in power? Aren't they still a threat?" And, "Wait a minute, you said the Russian people had a sacred duty to reclaim Kiev and Odessa, the city built by Catherine the Great, and return them to Russian control. Why aren't we doing that?". So while he can claim that he's destroyed Azov and call it a day, I think because of the larger preparation he had been engaged in to get the Russian people ready for this war, he's going to have a hard time doing that. And that's going to be especially true when the soldiers come back from the war and start recounting their experiences. Of course, the larger problem with that is that it's not really national pride that represents a great danger to the rest of the world - it's national embarrassment. It doesn't necessarily end Russian adventurism and Rashist philosophy if they get embarrassed on a global stage.

[@NemoForever338]

Well done, and best of luck on the new direction of this channel. The quality of the content and it's desire to limit bias is commendable.

[@hkntrn1840]

Randomly poped up in my feed. "An hour long video? Havent I seen enough already?" I figured I'd watch the start to know how you approached this, ended up watching it all. Thank you for hard work! Liked and subbed.

[@domnoya4130]

To be fair, this content blows gaming content out of the water. Gaming content is very low effort; thus, everybody and their dog do it. This military content is on another level. Nobody does it, and there is a reason for that. It is hard to do and a lot of work. You clearly did significant research on each individual video, and that is why you are getting the views. This content is too hard to make for mass production like gaming videos. So, while this content is a lot of work, I really do think that work pays off. Please keep up this style of content.

[@Ottomic87]

Depends. I hope you are not implying that Ahoy's content is "very low effort".

[@Obyvvatel]

Yeah there are tiers for gaming content, Joseph Anderson spends half a year making an absolute honker of a video

[@willwright2721]

I've got immediate family in Ukraine. I've been trying to convince my mom since day 1 about a lot of the points about Russia's strategic objectives and the viability of achieving them as the situation has developed. This sort of analysis is in short supply (probably because it's in short demand but maybe that's too cynical), but it is desperately needed. This is yours first video I've seen and I'm immediately going to go watch all the others on the topic.

[@RobVollat]

As do I ❤hang in there

[@TheMadGod]

Bingo bongo

[@Mr_Fission]

I really love your professional analysis of these issues. Really happy that you're seeing such great success!

[@IvorMektin1701]

I like coming back to this video