Sarah Paine EP 3: How Mao Conquered China (Lecture & Interview)

[@DwarkeshPatel]

AMA: Sarah has kindly agreed to answer your questions! Comment below and she’ll get back to you. She’ll be looking at these periodically over the next 3 days and will try and get to as many as she has time for. Upvote the comments you’d like to see her answer. We will be moderating the comments under this video strictly. Anyone being rude, offensive, or otherwise inappropriate will be blocked from commenting on this channel. Thanks for watching and we’re looking forward to hearing from you! *If you wrote your question under the community post announcement, please write it again here again so we don’t miss it!

[@goroakechi6126]

Alright, I suppose I’ll start! Why did we consider the Korean War involvement a good idea? Modern writings make it seem like the US assumed China would stay out of a war on its border for no reason.

[@andersyuen6977]

I will follow up, Do you think China's downfall would be similar to the soviet union, if not what will be China downfall?

[@timeisnotaline]

What would a third world war look like if nuclear weapons were not a part of the equation?

[@jcloiseau]

How the changes in russian and Chinese demography (ageing, shrinking pop) is likely to affect their ambitions, and their ability to wage war in the way they sre traditionally used to?

[@connorthompson66]

I posted this on the community tab, but I'll do it here again Question 1: Why is it that countries like Iran and Venezuela reach out to and cooperate with one another? What interests tie them together? Question 2: A: Is America the primary adversary of both China and Russia? B: If so, is that animosity strong enough to keep them together? I ask because, in a past interview, Dr. Sally Paine mentioned that the Allied Powers were so effective because they all viewed Germany as the primary enemy. She also stated that the Russo-Sino bromance will likely collapse. Dr. Sally Paine is an utter joy to listen to. She can teach the most complicated geopolitical topics to people like us who haven't devoted their lives to understanding it, and never loses sight of people's humanity.

[@erwindouwes7043]

babe wake up new Sarah Paine lecture just dropped

[@eltetters7194]

Can we please have her on as often as possible? She is simply awesome

[@billisaac326]

Ditto.

[@jugularSignal]

I would love to go to a lecture

[@Harbinger1776]

As a former Sergeant in the U.S Army Cavalry, allow me to be the first to say that you are one of the most intelligent people dedicated to the study of a craft I dedicated over a decade of my life to, and despite never wearing a uniform you understand it on a macro scale that I cannot even fathom. What would be your advice to Jr Enlisted, young NCOs, and those stepping into the shoes of us outgoing GWOT veterans in the conflicts expected on the horizon? Again, Thank you for all you do.

[@RaccoonCityPoliceDept]

Thank you for your service.

[@ken0272]

She's very patient with your lack of balance in historical insight which keeps showing up in the premises to your questions...it seems so many younger people are missing that, on the other hand you are trying to work out the rightness and wrongness of things, so good for you on that.

[@dvt6778]

She is extremely patient with the lad.

[@SavageHenry777]

I have a feeling the questions are deliberately framed as such? But the way he asks them as if they are sincere does come across very jackassy lol.

[@Taygetea]

He desperately wants to find a way around the thing where nobody's happy in a compromise. I think that's partly a fixation that's fueled by Ukraine stuff, but also partly something deeper. Maybe about AI and the US and China?​@@SavageHenry777

[@Taygetea]

​@@SavageHenry777"If the decision makers of the past actually pretty much made the best choices they could, and if the best leaders of today are in the same reference class as them in terms of their ability to make decisions relative to what the ideal is, then we're fucked."

[@m0redread]

His insane ignorance shows in other interviews as well.​@@SavageHenry777

[@brads4449]

Every time she comes up on my phone I will literally stop for 2 hours and watch the whole thing. She’s so enigmatic with EVERYTHING!

[@tdn4773]

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[@gaetanomignano7368]

Maybe you meant magnetic?

[@biledemon85]

I am so enjoying this series my dude. Would love to see more of this lecture + Q&A format you have going here!

[@Luca.Bruschetta]

@@biledemon85 it's awesome

[@ArtOfLearningDaily]

Hello Dr. Paine, I wanted to thank you for speaking so graciously on a multitude of war and geopolitical topics. I especially enjoyed your talk on “Why Dictators Keep Making the Same Fatal Mistake.” I just purchased your book “National Building, State Building, and Economic Development.” I’m excited to read it! I recently read “Why Nations Fail,” and so I think I’m going to enjoy your book. I have a few questions that I’m curious about: 1. Do countries that become more educated become more stable? 2. What kind of limitations to growth do Africans face in their hopes for an economic miracle? 3. How important are free economic institutions for sustained economic growth? 4. Chinese economic growth has slowed. Is there an upper limit in terms of economic growth and development in countries with such exploitative institutions?

[@elinewllms]

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[@empirednw6624]

She doesn’t run this channel dude

[@comrademustard8902]

@@empirednw6624 Read the pinned comment. Dr. Paine is doing a Q&A in the comment section for this video.

[@ArtOfLearningDaily]

@@empirednw6624I am aware of that. I was simply being respectful and addressing Dr. Paine directly.

[@tetristanwoelke5962]

Yeah really? Smartass@@empirednw6624

[@premiersportingkc3443]

My in-laws are retired Chinese factory workers who grew up in absolute poverty during the Cultural Revolution. It's very strange because they both revere Mao as a god but also despise him at the same time. My wife grew up in the Chinese public school system and the misinformation taught about Mao is crazy. According to their textbooks, Mao pretty much single-handedly won the war against Japan. The Nationalists and Americans barely had any role at all, lol. The stories that are told about the Long March are wildly inaccurate too. It's taken decades for my wife to deprogram herself from all that misinformation.

[@littledovecitydust]

The Americans definitely had very little to the war on the continent. The mercenaries were paid handsomely by the Chinese government

[@peterlancucki4928]

It rings similarly to the Soviet Union in the other theatre. I think Dr Paine said as much in a previous lecture that the land powers did most of the dying. I think all countries emphasize their role in great wars. In the US, kids are taught that they won both world wars. In a way, all the countries are right. You remove the US or China or USSR from the equation and you get a very different outcome. Not just in that theatre of war.

[@MrFruitPrimate]

@littledovecitydust just because the Americans didn’t have boots on the ground in China doesn’t mean they had “very little” to do with the war in China. If not for the Americans they’d be speaking Japanese from Manchuria to Hong Kong and if not it would only be because Japanese big-picture strategy was basically non-existent and their brutality was so insane that an insurgency would have been inevitable.

[@boomckickaboom]

Big thing to remember when it comes to China in WW2… The War for China began years before it began in Europe, and this was a theatre of conflict that was UNIQUELY brutal outside of the German invasion of the Soviet Union. For China, this was genuinely a fight for the continued survival of the Chinese people.

[@duckbillbigadu]

关于战争，我想说，这首先是世界大战，所有人都被卷入其中，中国当然从美国的反击中收益，毕竟最后解放南京的可不是美国人，所以对中国来说，没有人是救世主。 另外，后来中国全面倒向苏联，也被迫遵从于苏联的叙事

[@quintiax]

My question for Ms. Paine is in regards to the current global tension caused by the American elections and the invasion of Ukraine splitting Europe and America further away from each other. In the first episode you mentioned the importance of having a shared primary enemy in order for an alliance/bloc to continue co-operating effectively. For example you mentioned that in WW2 the Allies worked well together because both the USA, UK, France and the USSR had Germany as their common primary enemy, whereas the Axis powers had differentiating primary adversaries and consequently coordinated (more) poorly. During the cold war the NATO countries shared the Soviet Union as their primary enemy, giving reasons to keep NATO together. After the collapse of the USSR we saw some uncertainty for what the future of NATO held, yet it continued marching on (dormantly) despite leaders such as president Macron openly doubting the purpose of the alliance. However since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the primary enemies for Europe and the USA have deviated from each other. The European countries see Russia as their primary enemy, whereas America sees China as her primary foe. What are the implications of having a different primary enemy for the alliance? Can we expect more open hostility between the European members and America such as the debacle surrounding Greenland? What is your vision on this seemingly new fracture that divides this alliance, and is there a way to overcome these issues according to you? One last thing, I want to thank you for your thorough analysis on political history. As someone studying political sciences your perspective on history have given me a lot of insight into situations I otherwise would tend to ignore, for example the conflict between India and Pakistan. I hope we can hear even more from you soon!

[@chazzbranigaan9354]

NATO can manage both, dont forget that in ww2, they US was willing to let its top ally britian fall. Europes refusal to arm themselves so they can have a giant welfare class has the potential to cause them great damage, but in the final analysis, the US will save them as they always do. So to answer in the short term, it certainly has the potential to cause a lot of problems, but the US has too much of a geographic and financial checkmate to let europe truly fall.

[@benjaminbrown324]

I was this close to losing hope for the week but now I can listen to this like 50 times . Paine is the best lecturer there is

[@clebdad]

You might also enjoy Dr Robert Sapolski if you’re into biology.

[@Luca.Bruschetta]

THE QUEEN 👑 (question below 👇🏾)

[@artsseriouschannel]

All Hail The Queen.

[@Luca.Bruschetta]

​@@artsseriouschannelLONG MAY SHE REIGN!

[@Luca.Bruschetta]

Professor Paine; The Chinese have never forgotten the century of humiliation, the CCP has waged hybrid warfare in the West. Could you please discuss the extent to which this era is affecting the current day China and the rest of the world. Will China ever stop? If Taiwan is taken, would that be enough? Does China need to "reclaim" it's position as the sole global hegemon to satiate its geopolitical ambitions? What would a world led soley by China look like? What is the American/NATO/West's plan to stop/derail the Middle Kingdom?

[@AdamBrusselback]

Your question likely got removed by the KZbin censor. This is not the platform to be able to actually type out a question for her. Anything phrased slightly too violent or political and the automod nukes your comment.

[@Luca.Bruschetta]

@@AdamBrusselback that is unfortunate

[@ticojester]

Question for Professor Paine: Do you think China is on track to repeat history by centralizing power so much that a "wrong move" can cost them dearly? Thinking for example of the Great Leap Forward, the destruction of the "Treasure Fleet" in the 1400s for fear that the merchant class could grow too powerful

China is the future of the world! Live with it.

[@shencheanglow3726]

As long as Chinese are open to the world, it will always correct itself. They hear what you said. Unless you keep quiet and say nothing.

[@COYS-o2i]

China always find its way to ruin themselves. That's their history.

[@petersoukup1980]

Thank you @DwarkeshPatel for introducing us to the detailed analysis and wisdom of Dr. Paine. This series has been a delight and I've learned so much. I hope there will be more series in the future. Thank you Dr. Paine for sharing your lifetime of careful research, analysis and wisdom with us and for your astute, captivating yet humble delivery. Cheers!

[@KamranAhmedkhaan]

Highest point of my day is seeing Sarah paines new video

[@yeety.51]

Was US involvement in Vietnam actually a geopolitical mistake from the start or could it have been worth it? And what lessons can we learn from it?

[@howardwhite1507]

It wasn't a mistake, it was poorly executed due to political interference with Military Efforts. There was a plan to cut the hoe Che min trail early in the war. Political decisions stopped this effort making everything else a waste of time.

[@woodshopsquared3183]

She did a talk on that very topic

[@MartyH99]

Fair question - only the passage of time can tell! What is seen as good today may not be seen in the same light later. For example - many in the West saw the USSR as a positive in 1930s - events proved otherwise.

[@PickledShark]

I don’t know what Sarah will say, but I’d say is that supporting Colonialism (french in this case) should always have been against our mission statement, as a rebellious colony ourselves. In the eyes of much of the world, our support of colonialism showed them that the US was not trustworthy in its alleged anti-colonialist credentials, leaving much of the developing world with no real alternative to the communists. Supporting the remaining colonialist powers showed us that we learned little from the lessons of WW1, and had to spend a further full century learning the hard way.

[@knoll9812]

​@@MartyH99not many until Russia fighting Germany. Took major propaganda to convince people.

[@williamwarfield7630]

AMA Question: In school we were taught that the Vietnam War was a "tie". Why do you think it's so hard for us to call this a loss, all these years later? How is it taught in other schools around the world? P.S. we all love your lectures and interviews. You're very good at this

[@elinewllms]

+

[@3DaysIn]

I am not sure what age you are or where you are from, but when I went to school we were taught unequivocally that the Vietnam War was a loss

[@raf889]

I’ve never heard anyone say the Vietnam War was a “tie” - the communists won and control the country to this day.

[@josephwang9249]

This might have been in another talk she gave, but I think she mentioned how Vietnam ultimately ended up as a US ally, meaning we won the peace, but not the war.

[@fess3932]

In the US at least at my school, it was taught as a loss?

[@macmistral]

Growing up I always thought the statistics around the Soviet loses in the second world war and Stalin era were beyond comprehension and yet, if I have them right, they are less than half what seems to have just been accepted in China in a comparable period as - "that is just what happens". Sarah Paine is amazing in bringing this to us a "probably less well educated than we thought we were audience". Brilliant lecture.

[@crhu319]

In Asia there are two fascist factions - KMT and Japan - against Communist China. In Europe there are also two fascist factions- US/UK and Germany - against the USSR. In both cases the key to success was for the Communists to fight only one at a time and exploit the squabbles of fascists against each other.

[@jasongauthier8544]

I absolutely love this series. The lecture portion is itself really informative. With the interview, the on screen chemistry is just amazing. The questions actually extend her intellectual reach. She'll get a question she thinks is weird, but she grapples with it and she ends up saying really interesting things.

[@togerboy5396]

Thankyou so much for the hard work everyone puts into this series! I’ve spent my whole day worrying about an apprenticeship interview, but this has made me so much happier. It would be really cool to have an episode on grand strategy in the future. Speaking of grand strategy, what is the modern grand strategy of Britain other than in Europe?

[@kmeis1234]

“To Live” by Yu Hua is an amazing novel that follows a peasant character experiencing the cultural revolution. It’s one of my favorites.

[@Mr.Pink90]

Thank you so much for doing these! Sarah Paine has been amazing!

[@scruffydogdave]

What a Great presenter and presentation!

[@hummer3ty]

Just recently found Sarah's work and damn she is so insightful

[@yelenafortier4667]

Dr. Paine, what a privilege to hear your expertise. Q1: what is the most irritating misconception you keep hearing lately? Q2: in addition to the books you authored, can you please recommend a few books you wish everyone would read? Q3: what is your take on Alexei Navalny and what’s left of the Russian opposition now that he is killed? Thank you for your time, I appreciate you greatly.

[@bobechs7905]

This represents the consensus view of the recent history of China among American academic and national security communities in the 1970s. It's the orthodoxy I was raised in. Kind of like an old friend; post-Mao everything got so wheels-within-wheels that it was impossible to discern what anything really meaant. Yes, I do miss those days.

[@crhu319]

Correct. It's basically the stuff the neocons teach baby neocons at Columbia.

[@stukasdive3071]

thank you for your work and for being here.

[@robertisaac4950]

This has been such a fire series. Thank you Sarah!

[@Dham2006]

Hello! With the USA saying to be ready for a fight with China what would “winning” actually look like? If China has the numerical value in terms of assets and it’s in their backyard would winning be cause enough damage to bring them to the negotiating table or would it be a stalemate for years/decades. Also, with the trade implications how would the general USA population ever support a war for a country (Taiwan) most Americans can’t even point out on a map? Do you think a fight is a realistic scenario?

[@3DaysIn]

Most Americans can point out China on a map. China is not a small country. Americans may be geographically illiterate to some extent but they're not blind. I'd be interested to hear Prof. Paine's answer about "winning" as well, but I've usually seen the answer from other experts to be something like making the taking of Taiwan through force so costly that it disincentives the motivation to do so. I think China's preference is always going to be through negotiation and economic pressure; and a meaningful minority of Taiwanese do support reconciliation. Nixon used to say, "China will always choose security over ideology", and that holds true today I think.

[@Dham2006]

@ sorry I meant point out Taiwan

[@syjiang]

Depends on what you frame the definition of "winning". If you are aiming for territorial status quo and preservation of Taiwan in its present form, then US have two choices: 1) Establish significant strategic deterrence against PRC initiating the war in the first place 2) Should war occur commit significant national power to fight the war and of course risk substantial casualty. If however US cannot preserve Taiwan's territory or do not wish to pay the cost for doing so, they can still impose enormous cost against the PRC and roll back their development to the pre-reform era. PRC gained wealth and power after pivoting from a continental power to a maritime strategy. But to continue benefiting from the maritime domain, they need either the ongoing cooperation of others or an overwhelming maritime military that can dominate the world's sea at the level that only the British Empire achieved. In this framework, US can instead implement distant blockade on critical trade route beyond the island chain, interdicting energy in the Persian gulf or stopping food shipments (China is reliant on US grain, animal stock, crop seeds and livestock feed. Brazil has some ability to replace and but I seriously doubt US would blithely allow the Brazilians to sell to PRC without consequences in an all out war.). So instead of USN driving up to the Chinese coast, it would necessitate the PLAN to mount expeditionary effort into the Indian ocean and Persian gulf instead to protect energy. Alternatively they can sit pretty all they want within the first island chain but will end up being cocooned and economically strangled to death. That is unless they want to cosplay as imperial japan 2.0 and aggressively expand out, which would entangle multiple other powers in the conflict that they will not be able to win. Heck US don't even necessarily need to fight if it is really isolationist. One can fight this conflict on the cheap if you get really dirty. Have the CIA pay local fisherman along the strait of Malacca to take pot shots at passing PRC cargo ships with RPGs. Or start dumping large amount of firearm and ammo into Chinese civilian hands and watch them resolve grievances with oppressive CCP officials. Afterall it was Mao who showed us how to win asymmetrical conflict against the governing power, the CCP is now the governing power and equally susceptible to revolutionary/insurgency.

[@connormullin4547]

I have no idea under Trump but it seems like the strategy up to this point has been to avoid war. The military buildup is meant to deter invasion of Taiwan in the short term, basically if that fight were to happen then winning would be repelling the Chinese attack, since that would not be a protracted war. China would either take Taiwan within days or have to withdraw, just because of the realities of assaulting an island like that. If they weren't successful in the beginning hours then most likely they would never take it, so they'd have one quick shot. The overall strategy seems like the US wants to reduce dependence on Taiwan for chips long term so that a life/death fight with China is off the table and they can compete economically instead, which both the US and China would prefer. That is why Biden made the deal with TSMC to move some production to the US. Eventually when TSMC is less of a concern the US would probably just blow up TSMC factories in Taiwan in the event of an invasion, so that China can't use them, and leave Taiwan to rot like Hong Kong. That would prevent a costly war for everyone involved except for Taiwan obviously who would be the big loser. Plus it would be terrible for the international order since every success grabbing territory for Iran/Russia/China/North Korea encourages future warmongering.

[@少康战情妇]

​@@syjiang所以美国人帮助中国成为海洋超级大国，看看我们的海军😂谢谢美国遏制中国的努力，我们永远不会放弃台湾，台湾成为中国成为超级大国的动力

[@cguy8998]

What good deeds did we do to deserve a series of lectures from this brilliant mind

[@MrRJC1991]

We are back, boys !!!

[@partypat2375]

No question, just thanks for bringing back Sarah for this series! What a fantastic lecture, organized splendidly, and relevant for our current time!

[@wbwarren57]

Absolutely fantastic video Sarah! I think your explanation of Mau in multi dimensions is one of the best I’ve ever heard! Thank you.

[@j.m.3600]

Oh I LOVE her lectures. She’s great, I really absorb the information with her

[@basskick666]

Very interesting. Props to everyone involved . The excellent production values make the content easier to follow and more enjoyable. Sarah's insights deserve this kind of quality platform. Fantastic channel!

[@ziggyc3004]

Woa, pause everything, taking the rest of the day off because "sick," time to settle down and watch this.

[@TheRealBeavWah]

Loved it Dwarkesh ! Thanks for bringing this to us

[@bogdankondriuk4570]

Amazing, thank you for bringing Sarah Paine talks for all of us!

[@SunKou7]

0:50 Her disclaimer is getting faster 😁

[@bpora01]

With the US backing away from international commitments for various reasons, who will rise up to keep the sea lanes clear for international trade? Will it be a single power, a coalition of states, or will it be a patchwork of rules and regulations and local tensions that shippers will have to be aware of?

[@1976donzi]

What a great teacher she is! God if only our government listened to brilliant minds like hers

[@VegardLoke]

This is a such a KZbin-gem!

[@3DaysIn]

To what extent does Prof. Paine believe control over the information ecosystem is vital for US geopolitical security interests going forward, and what does her understanding of history tell us about how we might balance those regulatory restraints with our principles of free speech and protest in the mid-to-long term? A second question: Vietnam is frequently listed among the countries who view Americans the most favorably worldwide, while viewing its more immediate neighbor (China) in much harsher terms. Does Prof. Paine think this says anything about how American influence and courting of allies in the East can work going forward, or is this more circumstantial in that Vietnam's history with China is even more recent and combative than their history with the US?

[@derekmeyers5966]

Just a correction, Vietnam's negative history with China goes back hundreds to maybe thousands of years

[@3DaysIn]

@@derekmeyers5966 Yes, but I meant they also have more recent history with China relative to the US as well (1979)

[@chloemurphy9909]

My favourite episodes ever, these are so good I keep rewatching them

[@rgfrank1668]

Dr. Paine, I just wish to express my gratitude for these lectures and interviews, I really enjoyed them. I am only a simple student of history with a strong interest in WW2. So the lecture 'Why Japan lost' was particularly interesting to me, especially the societal reasoning/breakdown of societal pressures/motivations. @mr Patel, not trying to sound ungrateful, but is there a chance for any more (in the future)? For the AMA, It is my understanding that the global maritime order is under severe pressure, with the shifting attitude from the US from Europe/Middle east to Asia. What do you Dr Paine, see as the greatest threat to global stability in the coming decades? You talk fervently about global institutions like the UN and the EU, and although I agree with their purpose I can clearly see a more... narrow minded view take hold. Increase in populism and slowly weakening of democracies, an unwillingness to draw a clear line in the sand regarding Ukraine or China (from a western perspective). I fear I might be making it to broad, but I see a clear danger to how we have created our society since WW2. Do you think this is just a shift or a return to more regional trading blocks?

[@ChaoMung-t9u]

This is such gold! I love all her lectures! Great presentation and content! 👍👍👍👍

[@Rebis-z4u]

Immense thanks for this series. This has been incredibly enlightening and entertaining to listen to. Thank you for your incredible work and career.

[@indytheshredder]

this series has been fantastic, loved listening to the episodes over the past week!

[@uthersano]

Hello Ma'am thank you Very much for the lecture, truly one of the best I've seen. I graduated in international relations, and I'm Very close with the japanese community where I live (I'm Brazilian, and we have a big japanese community here). I study bushido through hagakure, Gorin no sho from musashi sensei, but I always thought about what I should go after regards authors from the Meiji and modern period, like japanese authors or sources. Your book is truly great, the japanese Empire and the sino-japanese War, I've read those and they are fantastic. Also, japanese is not a problem, I can speak and read (much more speak than read, but....) Thank you Very much and I hope that I can get to see much more of your lectures, they are truly outstanding.

[@EPICSAGA007]

Hi Sarah, Thank you for doing these and answering questions! I have a question about war economies. You've talked about how Russia's forced spending to arm their border with China is part of what collapsed the Soviet Union. But I've also often heard about America's WW2 economic boom lifiting the nation out of the depression. How did those similar situations result in what seems like opposite results?

[@dcc70]

One comment and one question: Comment: Regarding the nationalists governance of Taiwan post war, in addition to the deep dive into the reasons why they lost the mainland, it was also helpful that Taiwan escaped the war relatively unscathed, and was meticulously developed by Japan as a model colony with modern institutions. US aid didn't hurt either. Question: You touched on the messaging aspect of propaganda, about how skilled the Russians and the Chinese are at using the freedom of speech to amplify division in democracies. What can we as freedom loving people do to combat this?

[@thazeris]

AMA question: Without naming any names or going into present day politics. As an eastern european, I would like to ask. What are the chances that eastern europe will be given up on, to appease Russia, considering the current trajectory of american foreign policy? There is a growing theory circulating, that eastern europe will be tacitly handed over to the russian sphere of influence as part of a deal between the US and Russia. Thank you in anticipation for taking the time to answer my question!

[@robertcooke9299]

Thank you for posting this content. Absolutely top quality and very interesting.

[@unclesanders]

I'm going to miss this series. We'll done man, you weren't a little bitch about asking questions and pressed to really try and find an understanding. You relented to the guest and speaker when it was appropriate, allowing for explanation. Watching this was both educational for me and interesting. Sarah is a wonderful speaker, and you are a great interviewer. Thank you for making this.

[@janellevans878]

You are brilliant! Thank you for opening my eyes!

[@ajowilk]

SARAH WE LOVE YOU!! Thank you for sharing so much knowledge and perspective with us

[@riekopo7638]

Love Sarah Paine

[@heyvischan7622]

AMA question: The Chinese government has always tried to create a front of unity or trying to root out factionalism within the party, with all focus being on Xi. But what are your thoughts on how united the CCP actually is, as factionalism will always exist in dictatorships as people try to appease the leader as much as possible? Love your interviews and lectures btw, really made me think about history in a completely different perspective

[@Video7409]

Question: As the modern order has frozen country boundaries (for the most part) and wars for territory are most likely negative sum (as mentioned in session 1), what is the future of major powers? Do they stay relatively stable (unless one of them makes a series catastrophic mistakes)? Is population growth or degrowth, wars, and economic growth or degrowth now the only way for countries on the fringe to move between major and minor powers? If so, how do you think about birth rates and economic growth for national strength in a game of cutthroat billiards? Are there other mechanisms to move status for nations especially those who may become great powers sometime in the future? Finally, technological superiority seems to be another avenue to raise power status, anything that you see others missing in this area (no need to rehash points that are broadly shared), particularly with drones and AI. Thank you for this wonderful series

[@9kaart]

I really like how you combine great storytelling skills with a profound depth of knowledge of history! Thank you for making this content allowing people like me access your knowledge and expertise from all around the world🙏 As for my question, here it is: Based on your knowldege of Russian history, what do you think are the most likely and the "best" (providing the most stability to the region) solutions/peace deals to the war in Ukraine?

[@SeanLehan]

Hello Dr Paine. Thank you so much for doing these interviews. I genuinely have learned so much about the world and global conflicts and stuff I have never even heard of before. My question is: In the event the China invades Taiwan, and America decides to militarily intervene, do you think other countries would join in the war, and if so, on whose side? Does NATO or Russia, Iran, or even India?

[@calebhoward9555]

AMA question: Was detente useful in that it allowed the U.S. to focus on domestic issues, or did it simply allow the USSR to increase its capabilities without major competition? Or some combination?

[@PowerBog-uy8rx]

AMA Question: As a child of Refugees that was apart of the Vietnam war/ Secret War my people were recruited by the CIA to fight against the vietcongs and rescue US fighters in the jungle of laos. How has nations used minority ethnic people in a area of conflict as pawns in these wargames? After the US pulled out of the vietnam war it was almost like a a punch in the face and our people knew that hope had left and all there was left to do was run or get wiped off the earth. How many minorities ethnic groups of the chinese/ussr regions like us did they erase from the history books?

[@samg9908]

AMA Question: In your maritime vs continental powers model, you talk about the mutually beneficial international relations of the maritime world order under the US and other trading partners. Can you speak on the negative side, for example the US coercion of Latin American states to enter into exploitative trade relationships? Is that an inevitable part of the maritime power playbook, and how does it play into grand strategy? Thanks so much, youre a wonderful lecturer.

[@VladimirVladimirovichPutin-o4m]

Mao is still living in Westoids head rent free and in constant fear, that tells you how significant a figure he is.

[@crhu319]

#Xiaohongshu wants you!

[@MetaPhysaNaut]

Thank you so much for all your hard work 🙏education changes everything 🙏

[@AndrewRingle]

My favorite question podcast dudebro said was definitely "why didnt america defeat the CCP and Stalin immediately after barely defeating the nazis"

[@bronzearmy2645]

Barely winning isn’t really accurate. We lost a couple of million while the Germans lost 9 and the Soviets lost over 50 million with civilians included, on top of several consecutive famines which had themselves killed several million each. Combine that with complete air dominance and being the only power in existence with “the bomb.” There were about five years where a war with Russia would have had little more than a few air casualties on our side as we decimated the Russians. Once that window closed by them making their own bomb, the chance to remake Russia and end communism was over forever. It condemned us to “containment” and proxy wars the world over for like 50 years.

[@3DaysIn]

The Allies did not "barely defeat the Nazis".

[@adropintheocean9421]

Thank you Dr. Paine, I thoroughly enjoyed your series. My question is: In the Taiwan scenario, hypothetically speaking if the war goes badly for China and if Xi feels like the CCP's survival is at risk hence tries to use nuclear escalation as a threat to deter US intervention, what will likely be the consequences?

[@roshallock5747]

My question - Do you believe that the "Long/Great Peace" (Post WWII to present) is coming or has come to an end? Without commenting on the current political climate in the US, I'm curious as to what you think about Russian (and Chinese) destabilization efforts in the US and Europe. Can NATO effectively stand against Russia et al. with these destabilization efforts?

[@-Plot-]

Dr. Paine, Maybe this question is unanswerable, but are humans destined to fight each other forever? Is our love or addiction to violence something we can overcome? As a millennial that loves history and reading it, I don’t see much hope for our species in the long run. Is there any hope? Thank you, Plot

[@southerntiger3107]

Thank you for uploading this video!

[@andrewcfarmer]

Professor Paine, you talk about how a common enemy (someone standing in the way of your goal) is what bound Great Britain, the USSR, and the US together to make us stronger. Should the US therefore be concerned about the growing faction of countries (BRICS, for example) looking to subvert the US’ economic and political influence in the world?

[@andrewprindiville119]

BRICS isnt a defense alliance thats not the same thing. there trying to gain financial dominance apples to oranges

[@andrewprindiville119]

there ae arch rivals within BRICS china v india saudi v iran. it would never stick together cohesively

[@NatDC91]

​@@andrewprindiville119 Saudi Arabia has not joined BRICS yet, though they do have an open invitation.

[@andrewprindiville119]

@ well dubai is so the rivalry with Tehran still stands within BRICS

[@gaetanomignano7368]

I don’t think the BRICS have a united goal. They are only united by the idea of subverting the current order with USA on top, but there are enemies within the faction but also they have different primary enemies, India has china, Russia has USA and EU (because it wants to expand in Eastern Europe) and Brazil isn’t really interested in being a world power, they just don’t want to trade anymore with USD.

[@ZeeZedZee]

Dr. Paine, I’m a huge fan of history. Could you recommend a good book regarding the rise/fall of the Soviet Union? A lot of ones I’ve seen from academics appear to be revisionist, i.e. they downplay socialism’s role in the collapse and make excuses for it. Thank you so much.

[@walt234234]

These are amazing, keep them coming!

[@logo2462]

Question: I’ve read that President Johnson knew he had bad intel when deciding to respond to the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Please explain the situation and why the US administration made the choices it did.

[@MrTheoJ]

these were wonderful interviews, thank you for them ( both )

[@loneprimate]

Yes! Another new lecture from Prof. Paine! Such a recent embarrassment of riches. :)

[@Unnecessarilydetailed]

Never heard of Sarah Paine before until you posted reels of her. She’s is an amazing speaker. Thank you both for produce the content!

[@WorldTravellerPT]

Thank you Dwarkesh and Dr. Paine for this wonderfull lecture series. It is videos like these that make the internet a great place. Assuming and generalizing, at a macro level, the primary adversary of the EU is Russia, the main theater is the interface between both and the stakes are existential. At a more granular level the are great differences, in how clear the primary adversary and existential the threat is - e.g.: between the Baltics and Iberia. How can this gap be bridged and how can EU countries better cooperate to face its main adversary? Thank you!

[@moonwalkdreamer]

Thank you for sharing your life's work with us. You're one of the very few conscious and hard working experts of our generation.

[@markarmage3776]

You're kidding, right? Where did you go to school? Wyoming?

[@thatbuckmulligan]

This series is fantastic

[@MexterDorgan123]

Just received her book "The Wars For Asia", only thanks to discovering ger through your videos this past week. Thank you so much, from a grateful new subscriber!

[@bucwild]

AMA Question: Hello Mrs. Paine. I've heard you talk about going to Russia, China, and Japan to study their respective archives. Based on your personal experience, which of the three governments at the time did you find to be the most receptive and which was the least receptive? And also which of the three cultures as a whole did you find to be the most receptive and least receptive? If you get to my questions thank you so much for your time.

[@fdajax5107]

Dr. Paine What is your favorite piece of advice to give to your students?

[@KabeloMabotja]

AMA question: Professor Paine. Do you see space changing how continental and maritime powers operate?

[@cotorrosflojos914]

My question for Sarah is: As the Trump administration is going ahead by declaring Cartels as terrorist organizations, how do you think the use of military forces would look like? Would it be a similar strategy as the war in Afghanistan? And will the Mexican government cooperate with the Trump administration in this endeavor?

[@cherylcolomb4174]

Hi Dr. Paine, I am a grad student in the U.S. and I am concerned for the stability of our democratic institution. 1. In the history of oligarchic powers, have there been any that achieved peace & prosperity for their people? 2. Have there been any successful revolutions / resistances by the people that brought about democracy again? 3. Is there anyone in the world right now that might have the resources and motive to liberate Americans from an oligarchic or dictatorship regime if it were ever to happen here? Thank you for your valuable insight!

[@三十而立立不立]

我认为追逐利益，与为人民服务，是相悖的。在近代历史上，没有出现过成功的人民反抗案例，所有成功经验都来源于军事政变。因为现代普通人拥有的武器无法对抗军队。解放美国的人是美国人自己，美国依然拥有最强的军事力量，美国周边的国家过于弱小，其他国家跨洋作战也是不现实的，美国的地理位置是非常安全的。所以希望外部力量改变美国是不现实的，至少40年以内不现实

[@arghishakolkar7947]

absolutely love your videos , thank you very for being so good

[@mynameisbalbal1381]

Thank you we need more

[@Imdevinjt24]

The Queen of History!

[@zootzoot7466]

Love this series this history is raw and brutal

[@Cory_RN]

Let’s goooooo. These drops are better than album drops

[@chrishendricks7362]

Question: What was the overall strategic importance of the island of Tinian and Micronesia as a whole in the Pacific Theater of the World War II? My grandmother was the head nurse at the base on Tinian where she met my grandfather so the Island is vital to at least my existence. Thank you for your wonderful lectures Dr. Paine, I am using clips of them for my Cambridge History class at a Title I school in Florida. Also, thank you Mr. Patel for an awesome podcast that is not centered around Atlantis or the Pyramids being built by aliens. It is refreshing to listen to a podcast that is based in reality with entertaining intellectual content. Cheers from Florida!

[@joshuathomas5626]

Every time she says “Mao” I think about the meow from supertroopers lol

[@ClintonGCable]

I’m wondering if Paine’s lecture is a road map to the future of the USA.

[@crhu319]

It certainly is. Literally all US neocon "analysis" is projection.

[@philosopherkink]

Brilliant as always, Dwarkesh, PLEASE do the same lecture/interview series with Stephen Kotkin, WE CRAVE IT

[@tankninja98]

WOOOO part 3!!!

[@levyludeke2945]

Thank you for sharing this!

[@slappyabromowitz]

Love discovering new thought leaders and being an addict for history/ politics it's been fun listening to Ms. Paine. My question is twofold; Are you aware of the work of Peter Zeihan a global strategist who predicts an impending collapse of the Chinese system? Propaganda on both sides clearly differ on this question. Does Sarah think it's inevitable for China to self-immolate or will they continue to be an aggressive growing economy and threat to the US? Thanks so much.

[@vicho0ox]

this content is gold