European Defence & The Russian Challenge - Third Superpower or paper tiger?

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Intro:
Throughout 2022, implied or explicit Russian military threats to Europe by Russian politicians or media figures have become so common as to be almost ubiquitous.
In many ways, this is a continuation of long historical pattern dating back to the cold war, when much of Western Europe lived in fear that, at any moment, the Soviet army may come storming West with a phalanx of metal and manpower. For many European leaders, the assumption long was that only the USA could serve as a meaningful counterbalance to the Soviet threat.
Even with the end of the cold war, NATO wargames and academic papers alike have often modeled scenarios where Russian forces maul NATO opponents, occupying the Baltic States or Poland in short order, demanding an American response.
But 2022 has also proven the Russian military is not what it claimed to be, and so it is likewise worth taking stock of what Europe has to offer. For while individually, most European militaries have glaring shortcomings, especially compared to the USA (particularly in the area of munitions storages and readiness rates) taken together they represent and impressive military force.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Sources:
System and manpower figures are as per Military Balance 2021.
NATO budget figures for 2021 (est) are as per NATO release:
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
NATO Strategic Concept (2022)
www.nato.int/strategic-concept/
INIOCHOS '22 exercise (illustrative of joint exercise/training)
ac.nato.int/archive/2022/alli...
UK MOD aircraft flight hour figures
assets.publishing.service.gov...
International Comparisons of Real Military Purchasing Power: A Global Database - Peter Robertson
api.research-repository.uwa.e...
Russian politicians suggesting Poland is in line for invasion:
archive.ph/pG5dj
Polish Official stating Europe cannot defend itself without the USA
apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
Polling on NATO and common defence obligations
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
RAND - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...
Caveats & Corrections:
The use of PPP figures is always fraught with different methods often yielding quite different results. They're useful, and almost certainly necessary if you want an accurate picture, but keep in mind the limitations of the figures used here.
Similarly, while I use MB2021 for consistency between videos for all system/manpower figures, they are not perfect, and in particular the definitions used for active/stored equipment or whether a given unit should count as active/reserve/paramilitary or be ignored entirely is occasionally, in my view, up for debate.
There are also, I believe, three locations where I misspeak in this episode while the backing slides are correct. For example, when the stats on screen refer to PSCs, (big ships) I say coastal combatants or words to that effect. If it sounds odd - check the slide.
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:55 - What Am I Covering?
00:02:46 - SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:57 - Evolution Of European Security
00:04:04 - A Militarised Continent
00:05:15 - Nato & The Warsaw Pact
00:06:23 - The Peace Dividend & NATO Expansion
00:08:46 - Ukraine and Beyond
00:10:18 - European Forces Today
00:10:29 - What Are We Counting?
00:11:44 - Let's Talk Money
00:12:23 - GRAPH: Estimated Defence Expenditure (NATO fig.)
00:12:52 - The PPP Factor
00:15:25 - GRAPH: Estimated Expenditure (with PPP Premiums)
00:15:52 - The PPP Picture
00:16:46 - Manpower
00:18:14 - GRAPH: Active Reserve Manpower
00:19:36 - Equipment
00:20:41 - The Full Spectrum
00:21:23 - European Strengths (on Paper)
00:21:38 - European Strengths: Land
00:23:30 - European Strengths: Sea
00:25:42 - European Strengths: Air
00:28:02 - European Strengths: Independent Atomic Deterrence
00:30:47 - Fit For Purpose?
00:32:11 - There is No "European" Military
00:33:41 - Challenges of Division
00:36:20 - Can, Would & Deterrence
00:37:45 - Modernisation
00:38:48 - Depth & Resilience
00:39:56 - Readiness and Mobility
00:41:40 - Comparisons & Capabilities?
00:42:33 - Russia as the Yardstick
00:46:16 - Demonstrated Capabilities
00:48:12 - The Aerial Dimension?
00:49:34 - Cognitive Dissonance?
00:50:44 - The US Comparison
00:51:29 - THe Gap - Power Projection & Nuclear Capabilities
00:54:48 - Opportunities to Grow?
00:57:47 - Conclusions
01:00:07 - Channel Update

[@PerunAU]

Apologies for the later than average release this week - sometimes copyright checks just take longer than usual. I'd like to say thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel: Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun Ground News is the reason I was recently able to donate (in line with a Patron vote) to the Medical/humanitarian stream of the United24 charity, and I'll be carrying out another Patron vote on where to direct further donations. so far as big caveats though - I use MB2021 as a source across videos for consistency and its a fairly widely used public facing source. but the reservist figures are often not what I'd have gone with if doing them myself. certain organisations that I would think count as reserves are often omitted. so if a nation seems short on reserve manpower, I apologise. Also as a note - no I did not deliberately leave Portugal out of the manpower table. I misclicked a filter. apologies.

[@N.S.A.]

No problem. Just glad to have them.

[@craven1599]

No worries bro!

[@Yxalitis]

A Perun is never late, nor is he early, he arrives precisely when he means to

[@roryr6r669]

New Perun video always makes my day whenever it arrives!

[@thomascolbert2687]

Great channel.

[@michaelimbesi2314]

Thank you for pointing out that NATO membership is entirely voluntary. Too many people act as though a bunch of countries on Russia’s doorstep joined NATO because of so-called “Yankee Imperialism”. Those countries actually joined NATO because they have lots of prior experience with Russia and wanted to keep the Russians on the other side of the border:

[@maxisussex]

Russia refuses to see that as legitimate. It insisted to an audience of nobody that it wanted to keep its own sphere of influence, regardless as to whether any of the countries in question wanted to be in.

[@alg7115]

The problem with this analysis is they have made Russia there enemy by joining. The Russians gave up there empire volenterily and in good faith. They were done with communism more than anyone. Equally the idea the USA has has not bribed politicians and exercised soft power persuasion and coersion is naive at best. They have done this not for the benefit of people in Eastern Europe but for there own. Nato is fast reaching its peak and I can see in the future members going to war with themselves. Expecially Greece and Turkey.

[@MrElrood]

Yeah.... Russian usually project their way of doing things onto others. They force countries to join them, so they ofcourse assume others does the same. Its the "only way" after all -.-

[@wojciechkowalski8061]

@@maxisussex Russia simply sees NATO countries as "US puppets" because that's how they saw their "allies" in a Warsaw Pact (and to an extent how they see some od their current allies, like Belarus) and they project the same attitude onto others.

[@mingQWERTY]

On top of that, they don't understand how the process in which a country joins NATO is not just 'The US President approves (insert country name)'s accession into NATO'. Every country that is in NATO also has to have their parliaments or senates or congress to have a majority that agrees for a country's accession into NATO (unanimity). The people who say that NATO expansion is 'imperialism' or whatever they call it don't understand anything. NATO cannot just go to a country and force them to join. Edit: There's really only one country that was a bit more 'funny' when it came to joining NATO and that was Portugal. If anyone could help me fill that gap of knowledge for me, I'd be grateful.

[@andrewgause6971]

"The spear has gone out of fashion on the modern battlefield." I dunno. This conflict has shown that Javelins are still pretty prevalent...

[@DeHerg]

Now, THAT'S a modernization program!

[@andrewgause6971]

@@DeHerg indeed. And sometimes you can't go wrong with the classics. Like how Britain has demonstrated that even in this modern era, few things are quite so painful or fear inducing as a visit from an "(i)N-LAW" or two. :p

[@DeHerg]

@@andrewgause6971 Althought I heard this en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K111_Fagot can also be quite a pain in the backside

[@srelma]

As someone who has served in the Finnish army, I can confirm that the enemy always comes from the East in Finnish army training. I served during the cold war and at that time Finland was politically neutral (and actually had a sort of a defensive pact with the USSR). So, since we were officially friends of the USSR the army couldn't officially train against an invasion by them. So, the enemy was called "A2 yellow" that referred to a "general mechanized superpower army" that was trying to conquer Finland. So, in the training, the scenario was often some ridiculous one like "the enemy has made a landing on the narrow strip of land between the Soviet border and the first Finnish city on the coast (Hamina) and is trying to attack towards Helsinki". Of course no superpower would ever make such a landing, but formulating it like that allowed neutral Finland to train against a full scale Soviet invasion without actually calling it that.

[@qvintuse.urvind7002]

The old Finnish saying: “The enemy comes from the east. If he attacks from the west, they have flanked us.” The prevailing opinion was (and is) clearly the same in Sweden, and nobody was/is ever thinking of Finland as the enemy.

[@JillLulamoon]

Makes sense. I read that the USSR initially said it accepted the independence of Finland. Then in 1939 it would invade with the intent to conquer Finland and force a puppet Communist government. I wouldn't trust them ever again either.

[@srelma]

@@JillLulamoon the two main reasons the Bolsheviks recognised Finnish independence in 1917 were that a) they were hoping that the Finnish communists would have a revolution, win the civil war and rejoin the communist Russia (and it wasn't that far that it happened) and b) Germans demanded it as a condition for peace that was the number one priority for Lenin's government.

[@jimgraham6722]

Finns hardly needed exercises, they have had plenty of operational experience fighting Ruzz.

[@srelma]

@@jimgraham6722 I'm not sure what you're talking about. The last generation of Finns that fought against the Russians are now about 100 years old.

[@mischadebrouwer9855]

I worked on the PzH2000 development 20 years ago, and I remember from those days that Greece was one of the first customers, immediately followed by Turkey. And everybody in KMW knew that they pointed the guns at each other.

[@HellbirdIV]

It's not war profiteering to sell to both sides if they're not actually at war!

[@thomasvan7738]

How these two countries can be in NATO AND be this hostile towards each other is beyond me.

[@SlappyTheElf]

@@thomasvan7738 Some times I wonder what Erdogan is doing NATO. Sometimes I feel we'd be better off with them outside of the alliance.

[@legoeasycompany]

@@thomasvan7738 War (Or the threat there of) makes strange bedfellows

[@andersjjensen]

@@thomasvan7738 That they are both NATO members is probably what prevents the whole thing from escalating.

[@zee7056]

The fact that you're able to put out peak quality videos like this on a weekly basis is actually unreal.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

the productivity of some peoples is kinda scary, ngl

[@DogeickBateman]

@@delfinenteddyson9865 Perun's grinding so the Emus will never win another war against Australia

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

@@DogeickBateman haha

[@Myanmartiger921]

@@DogeickBateman maybe hunting dogs or bayktar drones can help?

[@zlaya84]

Yall dont know about perun gaming au if you think it is just once a week.

[@Tsuchimursu]

it's not the USA that coerced Finns to vote for joining NATO. It was Russia that coerced Finns to finally move from cooperation to membership by invading Ukraine. Even though neither had their armies on our soil.

[@alrecks619]

idk man, it seems the US is rather respectful of Swedes and Finns not joining NATO until now.

[@freshnuub438]

@@alrecks619 Once in a time swe/find was a "buffertzone" and more or less open about what side they where on. So there was no "need" for NATO to invite them or for them to join NATO.

[@santokun5835]

@@alrecks619 idk man, there was also not a ww2 type invasion of an European country before feb 24th…..

[@john_in_phoenix]

I will just point out that both Finland and Sweden will add really genuine and significant capabilities to the collective NATO defense. As noted, neither country had any really significant arm twisting pressure applied, but rather current events lead the collective populations to make an informed decision. To the best of my knowledge, this decision is very much a "democratic" decision.

[@DeltaAssaultGaming]

Finlands PM is really h@vvt

[@petersmythe6462]

The US military is like "is that thing nuclear?" "Do you mean the power source or the armament? In either case, obviously yes."

[@williamromine5715]

This is an amazing channel. Out of a total subscribers of 276k, there were 200k views in about 14 hours! This goes to show the quality of the channel, but also the loyalty and quality of the subscribers. Finally, your subscribers don't seem to have an axe to grind. You, sir, have managed to fill a deep void in the coverage of this devistating war. Many heart felt thanks for all of your dedication and work.

[@alextjb]

damn, we are a bunch of nerds. haha

[@chrissavage5966]

Agreed....but it's staggering how few actually hit the like button. Only 18k out of 317k views as I type this.

[@alextjb]

@@chrissavage5966 facts. i know i do most of the time. although occasionally i forget

[@williamromine5715]

@@chrissavage5966 I didn't notice that. I wonder how many viewers don't think to hit the like button? Every since u-tube stopped listing the don't like number, maybe people have stopped hitting the buttons.

[@avpguy11]

Don't know if I'd use the word "quality" to describe myself but thanks anyway!

[@Slapdab]

One of my favorite things is that this creator focuses on important yet under examined aspects of the conflict. If I wanted to hear the same, five talking points bandied about, I would go to CNN. I want to actually learn something, and every time one of these comes out, I do.

[@mikep1530]

Totally. Setting aside serious concerns about media integrity, at the end of the day, the news sites (CNN, Fox, MSNBC in the US) are targeting viewers with a 5-minute attention span. No room for deep discussion.

[@cf7571]

Totally agreed! It is, however, important to remember that the CNN (or whatever) broadcast also serves a purpose for the general population. We shouldn't underestimate how important this purpose is, or how unusual it is for us to live in a time where this is available (as "shallow" as it may seem to us). Not everyone has the time or requires as detailed of an explanation as Perun does. For those of us with a deep interest in this conflict, though, you really can't get much better than Perun.

[@DeltaAssaultGaming]

CNN is a joke

[@krissteel4074]

They have their role in all the largely simple, sound bite information processing and making it aware to an otherwise gormless population that is largely apathetic. However, bipartisan coverage is severely lacking in most western media and has led a lot of people into echo chambers which aren't much better than the unqualified idiots on facebook and twitter. Essentially, hard news is hard to take for some people on a number of psychological levels. They want to wake up and hear their team won the game, every morning. Waking up and getting a full blast about why your team sucks and can never do anything is also likewise, probably as wearisome and intellectually bereft as the former. But like everything in history if you want to find out the reasons why the things are like they seem, you've got to go dig for that dirt and see what happened.

[@zackhawn5944]

This is the first time I've seen someone use the word 'bandied' since like high school.

[@dritzzdarkwood4727]

"...or run 7 days to the river Rhine, like it's 1985" - Historians snicker and appreciate the nuanced joke 🙂

[@TheCimbrianBull]

*the Fulda gap intensifies*

[@positroll7870]

While the USSR was more powerful than RUS, imO these plans would have been about as successful as Moscows plan to get to Kiev in 3 days...

[@wisenber]

@@positroll7870 " these plans would have been about as successful as Moscows plan to get to Kiev in 3 days..." Having the entire USSR, And Warsaw Pact on the other side of the equation made the potential success of that far more likely than Kiev.

[@positroll7870]

@@wisenber RUS currently isn't fighting Europe, either. Just our hand me downs are giving ukr a huge leg up. Corruption and false reporting was just as rampant in 1985 Russia as it is today...

[@robderich8533]

@@positroll7870 At the beginning of the year I would have agreed with you. Since then, we've learned what Russia's capabilities really are. Now I think they're more likely to get to the moon by bicyle than to the Rhine with their army.

[@Cwell]

As a Spaniard living abroad (with zero expertise in this topic), what my brain was screaming all the time and I think was not directly mentioned was: Language barrier! Some countries might have high English level among their population, and after coordinated exercises, some soldiers might also be able to communicate in a foreign language. But I doubt the majority of Spanish soldiers (and soldiers of many other countries) will be able to effectively communicate with their foreign counterparts.

[@Bill_Garthright]

This interests me, because I was assuming pretty much the reverse of that. I traveled around Europe for eight months in 1972 (yeah, I'm old) - please note that I have particularly fond memories of Spain - and I was _amazed_ at how many people spoke English. And very, very well, too! That was especially the case with younger people. When I talked to people my own age, they told me how much they were taught of other languages from even very young ages. Many told me that English was their third or fourth foreign language (and not even their best). So I guess I was figuring that was even _more_ the case now, 50 years later - especially given the worldwide communication so easily available on social media sites (like this one), games, etc. This stuff certainly didn't exist in 1972! :) I wouldn't necessarily expect that every soldier would be able to speak English, but I did figure that language problems would be far, _far_ less than they used to be. Not so?

[@jean-pascalesparceil9008]

Tiene razón sobre los soldados, pero los oficiales y la mayoría de los suboficiales hablan inglés de la OTAN y utilizan los mismos procedimientos. Es aún más sistemático en la Fuerza Aérea y la Marina, las Fuerzas de Operaciones Especiales. Buenas tardes de Francia!

[@AbuHajarAlBugatti]

As someone who was in military I would care shit about some spanish or italian or french or UK muppets on our flanks getting smashed. Better leave them behind to die and retreat ourselves than have on of my countrymen die. What do I care about other European countries just because we share a continent? Only countires I care about are scandinavian and Netherlands and maybe austria. Cohesion will be Zero as it is nothing else than what the Adolfs SS exactly was: a multinational mercenary force. The only thing connecting them is ideology. I dont want that again.

[@richardfewer9348]

English training as part of military’s strategy eh? Slava Ukraine

[@R00sc0]

True, but at the same time most EU countries have professional military personnel that often works together: see for example the Spanish-Italian amphibious battlegroup exercising together since 1998. Most officer also spend time in NATO assignments and are required to be able to work with other nation personnel. Strictly speaking this should be enough to maintain cohesion and organization between different nation battlegroups working together (eg. holding a front): this only means that is better not to mix different national brigade together (apart specific cases), but this should be already a logic step due to logistics differences (ammo is common, but weapon system are usually different).

[@feastguy101]

Portugal here. We would absolutely show up to defend Poland. Our own security depends on our Allie’s showing up in case of invasion, so in order for that to happen, we will necessarily honor our alliances.

[@Alomtancos]

If the Poles are going, Hungary's in lockstep - dwóch braci. Jedziemy do Portugalii bronić?

[@VinceLammas]

Being a subscriber for Perun's channel is like having a regular delivery of the finest chocolate cake on a silver platter and with golden cutlery. Obviously, the recipient needs to fully appreciate the ingredients and the artistry involved in the creation of each dish. For the right customer however, the stream of goodies arriving on the table is spectacular and hard to exaggerate.

[@abbofun9022]

Well said, it’s fine dining indeed 👍

[@TheCimbrianBull]

Your culinary metaphor made me go to the store and buy expensive handmade chocolate! 😀 👍 🍫

[@patchouliknowledge4455]

@@TheCimbrianBull Share some!

[@lucacolombo7603]

And it's for free

[@elektrotehnik94]

Now I’m hungry (again!), you beautiful bastard ❤

[@ThePussukka]

22:00 haha exactly this what you say here, in Finland they always say in the army that the enemy comes from the East, and if they come from the West it's a flanking maneuver.

[@johanmetreus1268]

We might fight each other in the hockey rink, but never on the battle field.

[@wedgeantilles8575]

"But the german definition of what constitutes a system being ready for action is pretty strict" - one anecdote underlining this point: In Germany, every car has to be checked regularly by the "TÜV", a check you are required to do that your car is legally allowed to drive on public streets. (The aim of this is that every car on the street is technically safe, working lights, working brakes...). This check has to be done every 2 years. In Afghanistan some military vehicles have been declared unusable, because this 2 year period had passed and they were on schedule for the next TÜV. Since the TÜV is not avaiable in AFghanistan obviously, this schedule could not be met. With the result that the german forces in Afghanistan were not allowed to use this vehicles any longer. So no, common sense does not apply to Germany and the german military. If Russians do sweep into Poland, I just hope that every tank and vehicle has been inspected by TÜV - because I seriously doubt we would use these vehicles otherwise.

[@nsierra2297]

Finest PowerPoints on earth. Honestly every video is so well done, you’d think it would be boring watching slides but it’s always 100% engaging.

[@ahtheh]

Nah, Greg's Aviation and automobile is still better

[@TheCimbrianBull]

His PowerPoint skills are way better than any teacher's I've ever encountered.

[@MultiZirkon]

@@ahtheh "Second Best PowerPoints on Earth" ---- Well, I could live with that, when the standard is that high 🙂

[@gabiplatis9962]

As a half Romanian half Greek I feel so proud seeing the difference between both of my nation's air forces. Especially the Romanian one,seeing the MiG-21 in all its glory still "fly" and "be operational" fills me with more patriotism than ever. Please ignore how we have less than half of our original stock in working condition.

[@henrikgiese6316]

You might feel better if you consider that scrapping aircraft to keep others flying is in fact standard practice for pretty much every airforce in existence. If you have a fleet of aircraft no longer in production it will slowly dwindle until it's no longer worth keeping around. The problem is if the old planes aren't getting replaced. According to Wikipedia the MIG-21s will be replaced by F-16s in the short term and F-35s in the long term.

[@gabiplatis9962]

@@henrikgiese6316 the thing is that they should have been replaced 4 years ago or more. And even so,if we replaced them back then we wouldn't have to scrap so many of our planes to keep the few that we have functional. I am aware of the practice. I am just really angry about how slow the bureaucracy is going with the acquisition of the F-16 from Norway

[@henrikgiese6316]

@@gabiplatis9962 Well, I guess at least the people in charge of getting the new planes are probably working harder now!

[@DanielVisOneCade]

@@gabiplatis9962 it's one of the many sad facts of life even though humans as a community/tribe/defence procurement body know full well that preventive maintenance is much better in both combat effectiveness and cost effectiveness they still get fucked every time by bean counters and politics. So you end to with costly & ineffective reactive maintenance seeing your defence asset's crumble slowly to dust as you cannibalise airframes to keep ageing fleets air worthy. Funny how if you ask the bean counters and politicians if they think preventive maintenance is important they all agree though it is. Theyhave plenty of personal insurance on their cars, their homes, their jobs are all heavily secured and what not but when it comes to having a credible/capable DEFENCE FORCE that's just horrible warmongering. 😮‍💨 Not saying you need DOD/IDF levels of spending and rhetoric but honestly leaving defence out to dry or allowing incompetent bureaucrats to manage it should be a felony of the highest order.

[@abatesnz]

@@gabiplatis9962 Hopefully you'll be able to get rid of all of your Soviet era aircraft north of the border and get F15s, F16s and the like in short order.

[@KirbyDog]

Wow, your presentation was a real eye-opener for me. As an American who grew up during the Cold War, I always imagined Russian arms overwhelming weak European defences. Such outdated notions continued until I viewed this. Let's hope we never have to test your conclusions in real time and that Russian aggression is stopped dead in Ukraine and not deeper into Western Europe. Once again your thorough analysis is fantastic. Thank you.

[@termitreter6545]

Tbh, this stuff even puts the cold war logic in question. Sure the soviet union is way more capable militarily, but the doctrine and equipment really doesnt seem that smart anymore. Especially if you consider the insane armies that countries like Germany, France and Italy had during the cold War, even ignoring continent-side US and UK garrisions. Soviets basically put all their hope into a big push to smash enemy defenses. Any drawn-out fight would see NATO countries win out. But Russia? Russia doesnt got the population and demographics for large scale mobilization, and its economic base is in shambles. Most of their 'better' soviet equipment has been destroyed, and even their modern stuff struggled to adapt to drones. Their political system is rotten, its a main cause of russias weakness, because it destroyed the potential for economic growth, as much as it did destroy the militaries capability. Russia cant pose a conventional threat to european allies. That much is sure.

[@uncletimo6059]

@@termitreter6545 you are not taking into account the REAL plans of soviet aggression. they included carpet bombing the frontline with tacnukes, and using bioweapons on airbases. soviet planners predicted roughly 100% of their first echelon WILL die, if not in combat then from radiation and the other part of nbv. THEY WERE FINE WITH THAT.

[@bradnail99]

Every dollar of military assistance we give to Ukraine represents an insanely great bargain in terms of containing the Russian bear and degrading its power to wage aggressive wars of conquest.

[@termitreter6545]

@@uncletimo6059 Nukes would make either side irrelevant anyway. Thats why Im talking about the conventional forces.

[@elseggs6504]

Tbf, they mightve unironically had better chances attacking countries like germany. The west has grown weak, its militaries rarely more than glorified summer camps in the publics eye. Even today. Only the former eastern bloc seems to see it different. And maybe france but they need it in case their former colonies are acting funny again

[@stephenconroy5908]

Literally thought to myself today "Perun would never do a country-by-country breakdown", that would be too awesome, and lo and behold you're doing it! Looking forward to you scrutinising Britain's military industrial complex, logistical highs and lows, and what you'll make of the structure of the British Army in what I hope are very Australian-terms.

[@barbeonline351]

From a practical matter, imo, his announcement of doing commentary on some of the outlandish reports being proffered about military strengths, balances, conflict forecasts.....that is needed like a good laxative. I dream of having such a piece from Perun which can be submitted to TimesRadio, CNN, and the like, insisting that their hosts/interviewers be required to absorb the content before creating their questions for the next expert/pundit to be featured. I very recently saw an interview of Ben Hodges by a Ukrainian journalist. Her questions were so constructed around fears planted by Russian propaganda that it was sad to watch the pain on the general's face as he spent his valuable time introducing her to reality. The segment of this video that I most need to return to is when Perun reverses the focus from Europe's strength vs. US, and rightly aims the comparison at Russia. I wish there was some way to simply provide that summary to some of the Russian trolls that I encounter elsewhere in Commennt sections. All that said, yes, more discrete country breakdowns would be great. The Germany clarified many confusing things for mr.. Personally, India would be my first choice. It is somewhat only tangentially involved in the Ukraine conflict, but I would like the military scope answered to see if it helps explain the political positions and rhetoric.

[@Ater_Swe]

As a Swede, it is also important to put Sweden and Russia in a historical context. I grow up in a small coastal town, the oldest parts of the town were the only parts left after The Russian Pillage of 1719-21. The small mountain I grow up on has its name for that in days past it was used as a fire beacon as part of a warning system for Russian warships. We learn about the endless wars with Russia, the defeat at Poltava our tactical defeat during Battle_of_Vyborg_Bay_(1790). We are raised with the slogan "Om Sverige blir angripet av ett annat land kommer vi aldrig att ge upp. Alla uppgifter om att motståndet ska upphöra är falska." or "If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All reports that the resistance will end are false." and everybody knows that "another country" is Russia and that Russia is our enemy in a lot of ways. So even if we have let our military go downhill the last 30 yrs and on paper, we do have not a lot of manpower available. We have seen what a Russian military campaign is about, during the Afgan war, the Chechen Wars, Syria, Ukraine, and so on, and we will never give up. I did not do military service but I would die as a partisan rather than suffer Russian war crimes on Swedish soil. I am not alone in that way of thinking. So even if our military manpower is lacking in trained personnel, we would make them pay for every cm of Swedish land they want to step on. And as we have seen both now in Ukraine and during a lot of conflicts in history motivation and moral can beat training, especially the training the Russian military has shown to have.

[@stekra3159]

Same gowes for austria we stood alome at the Iron curte between Nato and the USDR for 40 years and will make evrey one pay for every squer cm of land.

[@elizaonthemountain3464]

I have to say that your comment made my heart swell with pride. I am not Swedish but I know your sentiment is how we feel about Russia invading any country, not just our own. Most of us may not be trained but we would certainly be in union in actively defending every cm/in that was in conflict.❤️from 🇺🇸 Slava🇺🇦

[@henriklindblom7465]

Absolutely correct brother

[@matso3856]

Ater_Swe If your not too old , may I recomend the national guard ? (Hemvärnet)

[@JayMaverick]

Samma på finska, perkele.

[@GHST995]

As a Texan, our temperature specialty is being able to sustain high volumes of cold, air conditioned air. Thats about it!

[@nerodia]

I'm sure that, as an Australian, Perun understands completely.

[@TurboHappyCar]

Sometimes it's a long walk from the house A/C to the car's A/C. But good thing there's remote start. 😂

[@jdocean1]

Same in California. Scorching 🥵

[@mikeinportland30]

Perun's videos actually prove the power of the internet vs traditional media even given that 95%+ of internet content is basically crap.

[@rakino4418]

95% of everything is crap

[@Strype13]

"Italy may end up with jets capable of making tea..." Lol, that was great. This was another superb analysis, Perun. Really appreciate all the research and effort you put into sharing these with us, my friend. They are extremely educational. I cannot thank you enough. Please, keep up the phenomenal work, good sir.

[@Google_Does_Evil_Now]

I'm going to guess that there are military vehicles that actually make tea. I'm guessing someone hooked up a water heating system from an engine and routed it through a hot plate so that when the engine is running the hot plate is at 85-100°C. Stick a metal cup or pot on it, some water in it, there you go! Can also heat rations.

[@andrewdemayo945]

@@Google_Does_Evil_Now Every British tank since WWII for a start - quite seriously (And most other modern tanks to have facilities to boil water.) This is because quite a few times during WWII, tanks were destroyed while the crew got out for refreshment. As so, at least for modern tanks for NATO countries, they have the ability to heat things up within the tank by design to avoid the crew getting out for the purpose of getting a hot drink and making themselves vulnerable.

[@ianwhitchurch864]

@@Google_Does_Evil_Now It's also useful to have a much smaller secondary motor that can run an alternator to recharge the batteries used by the radio - so the British 'tea making engine' had other uses.

[@Xezlec]

​@@andrewdemayo945 It makes me so very happy to know that the stereotype is actually that true.

[@laststand6420]

This video really puts into perspective just how powerful Europe used to be... Basically they are currently a superpower without even trying. What if they made military power a focus?

[@nutyyyy]

Yes if you consider how powerful Germany, France and Britain were it's a stark contrast.

[@someonespotatohmm9513]

Europe as a whole is basicaly the US but with more regional differences. If the EU could ever agree on it it could match the US militarily. But that might quickly lead to the collapse of the EU as nations start wanting to use that military for their different goals.

[@stixinst5791]

@@someonespotatohmm9513 europe as a whole is better than USwe have perfect literacy and our society is built MUCH more efficiently. I agre on the differences though

[@laststand6420]

@@stixinst5791 Your comment does not instill confidence in your literacy... though as far as intellectual bars go the United States is pretty low.

[@stixinst5791]

@@laststand6420 sorry, shity phoe cover and I do not have he willpower to suffer trying to fix it

[@kevak1236]

I served in a high readiness Signals Regiment in the UK during the late 80's. When a callout was issued (always middle of the fucking night) we had 3 hours to be ready to deploy, everything packed and ready for loading on trucks to be taken to airfields. We had between 2-3 callouts a year as tests. Theory being we could deploy to a conflict area within 24 hours.

[@LeutnantJoker]

Nato still has the equivalent of those. Ready to be deployed within 24-48hrs anywhere in the world. I was in charge of keeping our guys assigned to it ready. Every country contributes to these to constantly keep every important skillet from tanks to network administrators and aircraft mechanics or doctors available

[@himoffthequakeroatbox4320]

@@LeutnantJoker You can't beat a plain old cast iron one.

[@dogsnads5634]

Still do today. Spearhead units are still in place.

[@DLSanma]

Man, people always forget Spain also has a "light carrier" with the LHD Juan Carlos I :( we ain't as cool as the Italians but at least we got something too

[@siadwarsame2045]

Italian carriers are light carriers as well just like Spain, so basically only France and UK have a full sized carriers.

[@behemoth9543]

Honestly, the idea of a military superpower that is only able to properly use its assets to defend its member states without fielding any real offensive abilities actually sounds really good politically. This is a system that could work long term on a global basis to minimise war in the world. You also trade organisational inefficiency and a lower degree of teamwork and interoperability for a greater level of accountability of militaries and a severe reduction of the possibility of military coups. Which, as long as there are no grand enemies and the superpower itself is powerful enough, is a net positive.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

I agree

[@andiheinrich2830]

@@delfinenteddyson9865 So do I!

[@doomedwit1010]

How do you define defensive only? How fo you protect Japan or Korea from, say, China, with corvettes and relying on swarms of F16s that Japan or Korea lacks (or will lack shortly after it suffers a surprise attack) the air force bases for without long range systems. If Russia drops a long range missile on France, France's only ability to respond is it's carriers unless it has Polish permission. Similarly how could you protect somewhere like Madagascar or Australia.

[@PalleRasmussen]

@@doomedwit1010 Europe is not required to defend Korea, Japan, Oz or Madagascar. Unless those places suddenly join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. As for Russia dropping a missile on France that would be an Article 5, and France constantly has submarines with nukes deployed and ready. It would be a stupid idea in all ways.

[@castor3020]

@@doomedwit1010 Why are you debating here about the nature of European defence when you clearly know nothing about it? Only non-European NATO countries are US and Canada, why should Europeans be involved with a far-eastern conflict?! France has nuclear ballistic missile submarines, what do you imagine they would do if France was nuked?!

[@ulfosterberg1979]

Russian deep reseve is often tanks whithout turrets, stored outside. An austrian tank in deep reserve is one that has not been"jogged" for a year.

[@johanmetreus1268]

"Russian deep reseve is often tanks whithout turrets" Sounds awfully lot like the tanks deployed in Ukraine, how do they tell them apart?! ;)

[@anthonycampbell4534]

I served nearly 30 years in the US Army. Almost a third of those years in Europe. Two of those years as an exchange officer with a critical partner. I think you are missing critical issues like logistics units; communication units; bridging units; transportation units. Also many of the units are well below requred strength. For example, having 10k troops on paper is not equal to a well trained division. These are just a few of my observations. I really respect my counterparts and learmed from them. However, individually and collectively European militaries are hollow.

[@ReDFootY]

One thing you didn't mention but is impossible to quantify is corruption. Europe being probably the least corrupt (Western Europe atleast) part of the world would make each dollar spend more valuable then other parts where tires seems to crumble for some reason.

[@JABN97]

There are still stereotypes in Western Europe regarding corruption in the countries formally behind the iron curtain, along with the slow and inefficient bureaucrats of Western European governments. Don’t know how accurate these all are, but I’d hesitate to completely dismiss corruption in European countries as a potential factor. If only because taking its potential seriously means makes putting in adequate efforts to fight it more politically acceptable

[@bigzoon6282]

Greetings from Luxembourg and no hard feelings. Really enjoy your videos since the beginning of the war. Recommend them to all my friends. Btw our annual military budget is something around 460 million a year for those interested. It's set to rise in the coming years since we are planning a joint military bataillon with Belgium with whom we already operate a common A400M squadron. Keep up the good work.

[@stuglife5514]

Aye my family is from Luxembourg. I think about doing and joining up with the Luxembourg defense force if things get any worse with Russia.

[@petrsukenik9266]

My take before watching: EU army is not capable of power projection against peer or near peer enemies, but its fully adequate for teritory defence, making EU practicaly unconquerable by conventional means Lets see how will this idea hold up

[@tomassunaert1300]

I most definetly don't hope we will have to see how those this idea will hold up. not because I think they are wrong but because war is kinda cring

[@voidwalker9223]

Well to be fair it’s unconquerable by nuclear means as well since they too have their own to deny invading nuclear force

[@stevewhite3424]

@@voidwalker9223 I am not convinced whatsoever that the 3 major Western nuclear powers would go nuclear if Russia was to go nuclear in either Ukraine or Poland. Are the people of France, the UK, or the United States willing to trade Paris, London or New York For Warsaw?

[@JensNyborg]

@@stevewhite3424 On the other hand it's highly unlikely going nuclear in Ukrane or Poland would lead to anything desirable, for whoever did it.

[@Weisior]

@@stevewhite3424 You are massively underestimating the power of free european societies, when they are commited to some common cause.

[@o.h.a9826]

Taking a university level class on Russia-Ukraine, and these videos are used as reference points. Tenured professors are using you as a teaching aid! Thanks again for your work on this difficult subject.

[@autohmae]

That's pretty amazing. I'm curious in which country you are.

[@o.h.a9826]

@@autohmae Its in the US

[@shawnbrooks1004]

Kinda scary when a guy who runs a gaming channel is better prepared, smarter, more analytical, and (let's be honest) more interesting (and entertaining!), than the "professed" experts!

[@ThijsAh]

@@shawnbrooks1004 tbf, he's not just running a youtube channel. I think I remember him mentioning he works in the field of military logistics/procurement/analysis or something like that. Great videos and great presentation, but this is (in part) his job as well as a passion

[@concinnus]

An EU+UK supercarrier would be amazing though -- think of the specialization benefits: - UK pilots - German maintenance - French cooks & nukes - Italians also cooking, honking the horn

[@Sebastian_Gecko]

The best comment around here!

[@roxdegabba]

Every Sunday I watch the new episode and then hit that like button thinking, this video deserves so much more than a simple like. Perun's videos simply stand out in terms of quality of research, extent of coverage, and covering all the bases inside the extent of coverage. It's just superb work. In the past, I have posted links to various Perun's videos in comments on relevant topics. I think I'll keep doing that, I hope nobody minds.

[@stephaniewilson3955]

Great idea! I try to do the same.

[@Bonedagi]

You could always donate to his patreon :)

[@roxdegabba]

@@Bonedagi I could in peace time, but nowadays I can't spare anything. Since March everything I can spare goes to support Ukrainian defense.

[@Bonedagi]

@@roxdegabba understandable, have a nice day

[@airborneranger-ret]

Overall nicely done :) "Let's just say they don't point their guns west very often during exercises" - lol

[@nickbahl653]

I had to pause the video when he said this

[@janko6608]

In military it was a common ´joke` that we need to practice also enemy coming from west , as Russians might be sneaky and flank..

[@Kaizen917]

If Russians think Eastern European countries were forced into joining NATO, they need to ask themselves why most (if not all) of these new members are noticeably more hawkish towards them than even the older members.

[@SaintJavelinOfficial]

You give the best PowerPoint presentations on earth. Much respect for the work you do.

[@Blarg54321]

And much respect for the work you do, SJ!

[@altratronic]

These videos are like the highest-quality graduate lectures you'd find at top-tier universities. Stellar content and presentation.

[@williamyoung9401]

I'm getting a better education with Perun than I got in four years of university! I want my money back.

[@mistrants2745]

"If Russia attempted to 'de-nazify' Poland, well i expect the first month of campaigning would end somewhere outside Moscow" Aah a rare case of European nationalist chills for me there

[@DrGuretOnizuka]

If we end at Moscow then you can be sure Nukes will be used.

[@mistrants2745]

@@DrGuretOnizuka yes but we dont intend to take Moscow. Its a joke about how Russia stands NO chance of invading Europe. Its not a legitimate suggestion.

[@doomedwit1010]

How is it chilling nationalism to say that If Russia attempts to invade, conquer, and destroy Warsaw and the Polish people, Poland will push back? Of Russia can try and take Warsaw, Poland is perfectly justified in destroying the Russian army. Not stopping at the Border. Ukraine has one hand tied behind its back because NATO doesn't want a ground war and NATO support is dependent on not pushing into Russia. If Russia attacks NATO directly, that rule doesn't apply. If Russia drops a missile on Paris, Paris isn't going to show the restraint Ukraine has. Blowing up every power plant in Moscow would be a restrained response, that is less than proportionate to the ethnic cleansing Moscow is calling for and implementing by kidnapping children and specifically trying to hope children will freeze to death this winter. Of course the difference is NATO has no bloody interest in occupying Russia. Stop outside Moscow. Let the populace depose their leaders, and leave, would be perfectly acceptable. NATO has no interest in garrisons Russia. They would just like them to stop murdering their neighbors. Russia could have unilaterally dismantled its entire army in 2015 and its Western borders would have been the same in 2021 as long as it had a big enough road block of police to hold occupied Crimea from a Ukraine that had no Western support and its own problems. Well maybe Chechnya or China would have tried to take part of Russia. But the point is NATO would have entirely left Russia alone. The enemy of the Russian people has always been Russian government. Stalin killed more than Hitler. Putin will also end up doing more damage to Russia than Hitler did at this rate. Russia's economy looks ready to be set back at least 30 years .

[@mistrants2745]

@@doomedwit1010 Broooo you spend a LOT of time writing a comment based on a complete reverse interpretation of what i said haha. "Chilling nationalism" and "nationalistic chills" mean the almost exact opposite. I was saying i felt nationalistic pride and it gave me chills.

[@sqweege6432]

@@doomedwit1010 Very well said and 100% correct.

[@Cedfer69]

It is truly amazing how Perun brings together a complex array of factors. His analysis is so thorough and inciteful. Makes me realize that war is immensely complex. I suspect that Shoigu is a subscriber 😄

[@RichArchilles]

Inciteful would mean provoking. You mean insightful.

[@Cedfer69]

@@RichArchilles You are right. Should check what I write.

[@WilliamNeacy]

Weekly proof that there are still people in the world capable of objective analysis and commentary.

[@chrishalstead4405]

A riveting hour-long PowerPoint presentation? How can this be? The man’s an alchemist!! 😂😂😂

[@TurboHappyCar]

Just found the channel, eh? 😂We're like 35 hours into the Perun PowerPoint Universe and I look forward to every video.

[@remakeit2628]

He has turned the excrement of what is typically KZbin into listenable gold.

[@vaenii5056]

19:02 And those are the reserves that are assigned to wartime unit and can be mobilized in a short notice. The total reserve pool, meaning men between ages 18 - 50 who have completed military service, is around 870,000 people.

[@Aanaartu]

The exact comment I was looking for. Thank you for your service

[@mimakela11]

i know.. how does every video about finnish deff force get that wrong.. its right there front page of wiki hmm i think it might be that most places have active and then reserve and we have active then wartime strenght and then reserve so they only look at the first 2 numbers

[@blaiseutube]

Perun may have just saved my life. I was staring at the ceiling feeling pretty hopeless and considering an early checkout when I noticed today's drop. I can't leave yet, knowing there's a new show. Edit: I'm doing better. I realized that I was feeling isolated and the @perun presos help me recall the experience of connecting with an excellent colleague. I used to operate at a high standard and have become isolated.

[@PerunAU]

look after yourself mate and glad you're here

[@richardfewer9348]

Just say not today. Keep your stick on the ice and your head up. Slava Ukraine

[@blaiseutube]

Thank you. I keep telling myself that I may still be able to do a bit of good in the world.

[@autohmae]

Please get some help, this might seem strange, also maybe music can give you some additional help. Like: Bloodywood - Jee Veerey has helped a bunch of people.

[@LMB222]

Dude, I've wanted to check out since I was 8 or 9. Then my kid needed antidepressants. Then his docs looked at me and said "you could do with some as well". Since I follow the "fuck pride" rule, I agreed. Since then, my life is no longer a complete mess.

[@IrishTechnicalThinker]

I look forward towards these videos each week and I must admit they reduce my anxiety at the thought of a world war because what these videos have taught me is that Russia basically can't even afford socks for their soldiers or using tampons as standard medical equipment. Thanks Perun.

[@x_KingPin_x]

The best thing you can listen to on a Sunday evening. I only wish the occasion was a less tragic one

[@Flyingjaffacake]

Top notch content that continues to make TV documentaries redundant. Thanks again.

[@nvwlsnvwls2785]

This content would be the great basis of a book and documentary series..

[@MaddeningFly]

Not redundant. Obsolete.

[@pieter-bashoogsteen2283]

I would be interested to hear you weigh in on the current crisis in the Taiwan strait. Also want to mention that the growth spurt of this channel this month has been insane and a recognition of your great in depth content.

[@nvelsen1975]

What crisis? They've been huffing and puffing for decades now. But even if an invasion of Taiwan can be pulled off (it likely can't) China would lose its main 'antagonist' and find some other enemy to whine about, enemies that might actually take offense. Taiwan has previously made it clear they no longer claim China's territory and wanted to formally become Taiwan instead of the Republic of China. China blocked that. Taiwan is most useful to China as it is now: Still being the Republic of China that can be argued to be a 'rival China' and lost province. And if China can be expected to do one thing, it's doing what's best for China.

[@DukeOfTwist]

I think the drone strikes & twitter comments had a big effect on that. Especially considering his Air Defence vid release timing.

[@rick-potts]

He is on record as stating he aint touching that topic.

[@pieter-bashoogsteen2283]

@@rick-potts Do you also remember why?

[@rick-potts]

@@pieter-bashoogsteen2283 He didn't really expand. He simply said that he didn't want to jump on the "Taiwan strait bandwagon" and wanted to steer clear.

[@dritzzdarkwood4727]

Finland is a nation of 5,5 million people capable of mobilizing 5, 5 million soldiers. The Winter War taught us that ;-)

[@justskip4595]

Another nice video. Greetings from Finland. The decision of ours to apply to NATO should speak strongly about our opinion regarding EU and the expectations we have of the other members willingness to help us in any way. Why weren't we in NATO? We spend awful lot of money, time and energy to uphold credible defense and it was viewed to be non optional to do so regardless if we would be in NATO or not. Russia being our neighbor, we had a lot of trade with them and the view was that we would be willing to stay militarily non aligned as long as Russians were willing to have good working relations with us. With Russia deciding to break those relations and act without any honor, there remained practically no downsides to joining NATO and as a bonus, it would annoy the Russians.

[@Bill_Garthright]

The long-term goal must be for change in Russia, don't you think? So as long as that seemed possible, I'm sure it made sense not to annoy them with NATO membership. But not now. Indeed, authoritarianism seems to be on the rise all around the world. So the rest of us need to stand strong and united (as much as we can).

[@glock17games]

Always amazes me how a powerpoint can be entertaining and informative when you present it

[@stevepalincsar4273]

It's the presentation, not the powerpoint. What a truly gifted presenter Perun is!

[@bmunson4920]

One military commentator (retired general) on I believe the BBC or Times Radio said recently that any one of the Baltic states could now march on St. Petersburg pretty much unopposed.

[@usul573]

It's 160 km from St. Petersburg to Narva in Estonia. The Russian military force near the Baltics and South Finland is said to be down to a token force. They could almost make it haha. Of course Russia would pull out the missiles, planes, and ships before too long.

[@TheLumberjack1987]

"Don't mistake my politeness for weakness" should be a european motto.

[@juliuszkocinski7478]

Especially since soooo many Europeans seems to think so

[@derekhemmings1693]

Most Western Europeans are weak through

[@entropy2100]

Oh yeah, 1hr power point time! Best time if the week

[@clifforddicarlo9178]

Thanks, Perun, for the info on Purchasing Price Parity [PPP]; a concept I've always wondered about but your presentation brings this concept into sharper focus.

[@kiwihame]

Ruzzia's "de-nazification" of Poland is pretty ironic given the Soviet-Nazi pact that resulted in the "Nazification" of Poland. Oh, and WW2.

[@baneofbanes]

To Russians “Nazi” has nothing to do with the actual Nazis, instead it has everything to do with being anti-Russian, or at least perceived to be anti-Russian

[@kiwihame]

@@baneofbanes yep, I get that. But moreover it's a term of dehumanisation that the Russian people can relate to.

[@baneofbanes]

@@kiwihame that as well.

[@nvwlsnvwls2785]

Perhaps our politicians could benefit from reviewing these weekly updates. Thank you Perun for another great presentation, subscribers Thank you for the awesome comments, you too are very informative, interesting and a very respectful bunch.

[@coolirliswear9548]

Yo Perun, I'm writing this comment as I've began to listen to your newest video. I'm a Finn, a member of the reserves in my country (as are most of the male and some of the female citizens of my country). My view might change of your videos, might you discredit our defence forces, but I doubt it. I wanted to thank you for these videos, all of them. I enjoy your content a lot and I'm grateful you're making it for people like me to enjoy. Thank you!

[@PerunAU]

I think Finland's military is fantastic given the size of the country and the reserve system is impressive so don't worry

[@sietuuba]

The chances of that are pretty slim, from what I've picked up he seems to appreciate our defence forces. They certainly punch above their weight in procurement, resulting in us having the largest artillery forces in Europe, modern main battle tanks, and soon the F-35 on the cheap compared to anyone else anywhere. It's quite an accomplishment with our tight defence budget and I'm sure it's right up his alley in terms of "bang for the buck"! So in other words, here's another thank you to Perun from a Finnish reservist. This series of videos has helped a lot in putting in perspective the different countries' militaries and the capabilities one can expect to find behind some random quoted figures for money spent on them (looking at you Germany, what the heck?) so we can keep our eyes wide open and look for the relevant stuff, not just the surface detail.

[@irgendwieanders2121]

Only thing in Finland Perun questioned up to now was the quality of the padlocks on your storage facilities, as your equipment turns up in unexpected places...

[@coolirliswear9548]

@@PerunAU Good comment for like-farming the Finns ;)

[@sietuuba]

@@PerunAU Oh shieeet you replied at the same time. Perfect answer. :-) Is there anything you would _recommend_ to Finland, like aspects of defence industry on which to focus next? Our domestic AMOS mortar turret system for example ended up being a tad dear in terms of price and only its smaller cousin, the Patria NEMO, has found export customers so far. Then again export success is never guaranteed; one can compare to the Swedish Archer, a fine howitzer system with only Sweden using it... for now. If they send some to Ukraine and it gets proven by fire its popularity might get a big boost. I wish we could afford to send more aid to Ukraine but we can't be robbing Peter to pay Paul...

[@masterstacker2833]

OMG - scientific research, hypothesis, and critical thinking. Keep this up and you'll wreck the curve.

[@chrisk8978]

Another superb analysis! Minor feedback: you touched on it indirectly, but I think it is critical to emphasize that, more than any other global fighting force, a pan-European army’s effectiveness depends fundamentally on whether it fights for offensive or defensive objectives. This makes any evaluation so asymmetric that perhaps the two scenarios should be considered independently. Cheers, mate.

[@kden9772]

I’m in an army in a similar readiness state to an army like Germany in terms of equipment. However, due to the fact pretty much all our combat arms NCOs have experience in Afghanistan we are very well led. I feel like this will only last for so long however, I meet a lot of good men who are leaving because they feel neglected.

[@alan-sk7ky]

You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all: We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational. Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace. For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck him out, the brute!" But it's "Saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot; An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please; An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool -- you bet that Tommy sees!

[@lamwen03]

But those men who spent the time to achieve NCO status will remember their training, even if they've gotten fat and rusty. A defensive war is far easier to maintain over time than an offenseive one.

[@stixinst5791]

@@lamwen03 exactly, yo need them to train volunteers more tan yo need them at the front line

[@3ast3rn3r]

That romanian MiG 21 that you showed next to the F35 is the "LanceR" variant. Those were completely stripped and overhauled by the Elbit Systems company from Israel. They've only kept the frame and the engine but all controls, weapons systems, targeting, sensors, etc , were really high tech 20 years ago. The MiG21 LanceR is a "hybrid" of russian and western tech. Just like the TR 85 M1 romanian battle tank. Anyway, the old MiGs are being replaced by F16s, most of them are not flying anymore. Romania will soon upgrade to F35.

[@richardfewer9348]

Hopefully you will consider donating anything you have to Ukraine. Please and thanks for your excellent comments. Wolverines

[@3ast3rn3r]

@@richardfewer9348 Romania is helping Ukraine a lot, even though we are historical enemies. The romanian government has a " don't ask don't tell" policy regarding the military help that it sends to Ukraine. I'm not sure these MiGs would help much the ukrainians, but that's where they will probably end up if the government decides they are no longer needed. Everyone in Romania understands the severe consequences if Russia wins in Ukraine..

[@richardfewer9348]

@@3ast3rn3r Excellent comments. Romania punches above its weight in donations to Ukraine I know. Very wise Romania let it be a surprise to evil putin. Smart to keep it quiet until after Ukraine wins. Thanks for your help. Slava Romania

[@abatesnz]

@@richardfewer9348 If the Romanian MiGs have been totally overhauled by the Israelis, will the UkrAF pilots know how to fly them without much training?

[@TurboHappyCar]

I would be interested to see the cost difference between a complete modernization / overhaul vs a new plane. Everyone sees the riveted aluminum structure and thinks that's the plane, while really it's the engines, avionics, hydraulics, life support, weapons, etc systems. That's why the U.S. has favored going to a new platform rather than trying to fit new systems into an old airframe.

[@drones7838]

I hope you’re all doing well in these interesting times. and I wish everybody luck. thank you Perun for all the hard work, we all really really appreciate it and enjoy it. 😂😅🎃

[@aliasalias8433]

👍

[@cthomas3782]

Time to enjoy my weekly dose of PowerPoints on defense procurement and capabilities. 😍

[@sc8030]

Servus Perun, With the Big Scale Russian Invasion into Ukrain I began to search for some good analysts of military issues. You seem to be one of the bests there are. So don't stress your self to make too many videos but rather keep up your high quality. Obviously a lot of time and effort is needed for your work. Thank you a lot.

[@joestrat2723]

Very interesting. Russia's performance in Ukraine has been a military disgrace, and I think most of us have already seen it's no match for Europe in many regards. That being said, even given the limitations you've highlighted, I'm surprised by the existing military strength of Europe to stand on its own should the need arise. Another great analysis, thanks!

[@anthonyhowrard526]

have a listen to Scott Ritter.

[@martins.4240]

@@anthonyhowrard526 If I wanted to listen to russo-fascist propaganda I'll just go to RT or TASS, thank you very much. No reason to listen to that stooge.

[@st-ex8506]

@@anthonyhowrard526 I did watch a couple of his videos... and I didn't not hear anything more ridiculous ever since, except russian MoD communication... and the last couple of interventions of the russian UN representative also set a pretty high standard of ridiculousness.

[@3ast3rn3r]

@@anthonyhowrard526 Scott Ritter sounds like Hitler in his Berlin buker waiting for the "Steiner attack" that never came. He keeps repeating that Russia is " about to really start the war" as if it has been pretending to wage war for the last 8 months.. He's a stooge, an articulate one, but nevertheless a stooge!

[@elektrotehnik94]

@@st-ex8506 Plenty of atrocious military analysis online, but Scott Ritter is among the worst indeed. 😅

[@justinsbeaver9010]

*Perun's (approximate) best quotes :* Then I'm gonna do that thing that people on the internet love : I'm gonna look at the paper strength of Europe's military About Hungary joining NATO : And I stand to be corrected, but I'm pretty sure the US military wasn't in Hungary at the time, individually threatening voters to make sure they tick the right box. About countries left out of the analysis : Sorry [country names], you are important to me but I just don't have reliable figures. Lockheed Martin isnt gonna give you a great deal on the F-35 just because the average wage in your country happens to be lower. [...] which must be a letdown for some of these countries. I'm sure more of them would be interested in F-35 if they were offered at 20m-30m per. After mobilization, the Finish armed forces should outnumber the Germans. Gee I wonder if that has anything to do with why NATO is so keen to bring the Fins in. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that a mobilized Finland has equivalent manpower the prewar active duty Russian armed forces. The spear may be perhaps the deadliest weapon in human history, but it's kinda gone out of fashion in the modern battlefield. Perhaps mercifully, deploying a nuclear weapon is not as simple as pressing the "GO" button and making everything explode. The next step after Ukraine[for Russia] is to you know, attack NATO. But when you start looking at the numbers the first question that comes to mind is ... well ... HOW? (My favorite) Yes those European figures include hundreds of old cold war relics, but at this stage the Russians are mass modernizing T-62s. So any conflict would basically be a cold war reunion. Are we really suggesting the Russian carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, the one that has to be, you know followed by the tugboat everywhere in case it breaks down, is really equivalent even to both British Queen Elizabeth classes?

[@abrahamcollier]

Another brilliant analysis which challenges established stereotypes in universities and media outlets across the world. In the long run, the emergence of Perun may be one of the most significant outcomes of this war.

[@dennisynborg6004]

@Perun, "Seeing the Poles cruise a Queen Elizabeth class around the Baltic sea is hilarious". Yes, made me LOL too, but please.... Do not repeat that. Our MOD might hear it and the money printing machine would be put from overdrive into hyperdrive. 🙂 Also, judging by trends in the shopping spree they have now, it would most certainly be a Gerald R. Ford class with full suit of F-35 C´s. Also, just to rub it into the Kremlins face, they would call it "O.R.P Stanisław Żółkiewski".

[@andrenascimento3638]

Greetings from Portugal. I enjoy yours deep analysis vídeos on different topics, keep up. I understand what you said about the willing and commitments of every single country in Nato in the case of activation of the article five in a defensive war. But just for the record Portugal is a founder member of Nato it participated in diferent mission with Nato over the years and will aid any member in need.

[@thespanishinquisition4078]

Greetings from Spain! We may not be founding members due to our... complicated history. But if our dunces-in-chief are crazy enough to stand idly by and let any nato brothers be invaded without aid they can most definitely expect riots!

[@johanmetreus1268]

I think it was more about logistics than willingness to be honest. Airforce aside, I'm not convinced Sweden could transport heavy units all across Europe to Portugal with most railroad capacity inn the countries between already taken and signed up for.

[@icutthings649]

Compares the gripen with the typhoon and rafale I'm crying and shaking right now

[@mathiastwp]

24:03 **Uses the Visby class as an example of top-tier European costal ships** **Fails to mention the Skjold class** **Angry Norwegian noises**

[@zoopdterdoobdter5743]

19:22 As a Texan that needs a jacket if it's under 60°F (~15.5°C), I heartily welcome our Finnish snow bunny cousins. 😆

[@nicholaswalsh4462]

My man, your work ethic is inspiring.

[@lionheartx-ray4135]

As a US soldier who served along side Romanian Army they are a professional army and glad they are part of NATO.

[@corvus_monedula]

Just started the video but I've been waiting for this. Thank you for the continued great work Perun. The amount of effort that goes into these is highly appreciated

[@tomreit]

Thank you for yet another excellently researched and produced video. Absolutely cannot get enough of these.

[@ulrichbrodowsky5016]

I'm always annoyed when people here in Germany claim that Europe can not defend itself. Considering that attacking is much harder than defending, Russia should have trouble to win against a country like France, at least on paper. Russian abilities to threaten NATO with conventional military force are really limited. And it has been like that for years now

[@grahamstrouse1165]

Considering how badly Russia has been weakened in Ukraine this is doubly true now. Those sanctions (which make it VERY hard to source any kind of military technology) aren’t going away & China is not exactly eager to be Russia’s junior partner again. Even the ‘ol ‘stans seem to enjoy seeing Putin get kicked down a few notches.

[@faultier1158]

Yeah, it's mostly about how hard we would win. Ukraine is defending itself successfully, but suffers greatly, for example. Ideally, you want to be so overwhelmingly stronger that you don't just win, but also keep your citizens protected from any kinds of terror bombing or temporary occupation.

[@kurousagi8155]

I’m sure Europe can defend Europe. But I think Europe might be hard pressed to send troops to faraway places to secure important resources in an emergency.

[@ulrichbrodowsky5016]

@@faultier1158 Which frankly is simply impossible no matter what. Also if you try to go that route you may antagonize your adversary. Then Russia starts investing more into it's military because it feels threatened. And you didn't achieve anything

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

Sounds like a great excuse to oppose Germany or other European countries spending more on their defense.

[@croncorcen]

I salute the Power Pointer in Chief!

[@visigoth9271]

No better videos on this site than the ones that take days to process the dense/detailed information contained therein, and this channel is one of the best doing that currently. Thank you

[@theheavy9378]

Thank you so much for these well thought out and thorough presentations. Honestly, watching your channel weekly should count towards my continuing education hours.

[@Pedanta]

Yes! I love any commentary on Europe!

[@cobbrjo]

I think it is a bit unfair to talk about Finland scrambling to join NATO. The Finnish military (and presumably Swedish) has for the last 20 years been preparing through partnerships for eventual membership. The Finnish military is more NATO compatible than many of the newer NATO members. Being a democratic country the main thing holding it back was the electorate. It did not see any reason to give up on neutrality and the long held policy of not getting involved in arguments between major powers. Post WW2 it was pretty much ingrained in the national psyche and non-negotiable. Russia's attack on Ukraine changed all that and gave the green light to the Finnish government to apply for full membership.

[@Whisper555]

70 Years, Finland and Sweden had absolutely no interest in joining NATO. Putin invades Ukraine to halt so called NATO expansionism. In the space of a month Finland and Sweden feel a sudden incredible need to join NATO. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@justskip4595]

Greetings from Finland. You are wrong in your statements here too.I do not object the choice of "scrambling" here, though it could have been said in many other ways too. It was indeed long prepared that we could apply to join easily in very short notice if wanted. It was so already in my time in the military over 10 years ago. Lets first shoot down that "Finland was neutral" because we most definitely never were neutral. We were just militarily non allied. We saw it so that we would need to keep this level of power for self defense regardless of being in or our of military alliance. People saw it so that it was not worth it to join an alliance or it was worth is to stay non allied TILL Russia now decided to get rid of any positives of staying non allied by actively ruining the relations. This then left no cons for writing the letter and joining NATO. I hope that you stop repeating those falsehoods. Even our president has to keep on correcting people on these things.

[@alyssinwilliams4570]

Always enjoy your work Perun, the time and effort is appreciated!

[@dmdrosselmeyer]

Thank you again for all the hard work and superb effort you put into each of these videos; they bring me great joy🙏

[@Luna-kr9oy]

Thank you again for making an hour of work much more bearable :)

[@Tom_Bee_]

Oh fantastic. I've been literally jonesing for a decent slideshow. Give it to me, baby, Yes! YES!

[@MPD1337]

Perun, your presentations keep getting better man, thank you for posting the vids. I'm looking forward to the next one every day I scroll youtube.

[@apc9714]

I am always happy when a Perun video drops, but this time especially since the topic is soo interesting

[@TheGamerThatKills]

Always a pleasure to sit down with a new perun upload

[@BalbazaktheGreat]

Excellent work, as always. I look forward to future videos on this topic.

[@CoinOp1]

Thank you Sr, for the in-depth videos each week.

[@robertmcguinnness8755]

Great content,well presented as usual 👍

[@jjforcebreaker]

Just 16 mins in and already it's excellent and as informative as always. Thanks and have a great end of the weekend!

[@EloquentTroll]

Thanks again Professor Perun!

[@GridDownSurvival]

Always look forward to your posts.. the depth you add to the news headlines and solid research are top level..

[@hungrymusicwolf]

My favorite powerpointer is back, and on a topic I was desperately looking for more information on. Thanks a lot.

[@TJRex01]

I know you’re mostly focused on the Ukraine war, and that’s probably where the clicks are, but I would love to see you tackle Asian topics like Japan’s potential militarization.

[@TurboHappyCar]

Would definitely be interesting. Also South Korea's military.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

Japan’s going pretty hard these days. They have one of the largest (and probably the best) fleets of AIP DE subs. Their destroyer fleet is (I think) the third largest in the world. They have excellent ASW capabilities with the Hyuga & Izumo classes & the Izumos are having their decks strengthened to give them some limited F-35 operations capability.

[@imgvillasrc1608]

I'd watch a perun vid on Indian military procurement. I've always wondered why, though having so much potential, the Indian Arms industry is so incompetent to even come up with anything good on their own.