Peter Zeihan on the Collapse of Globalization and Shifts in Global Power Dynamics | Technovation 887

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Metis Strategy

Metis Strategy

Күн бұрын

Peter Zeihan, renowned geopolitical strategist and founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics, wrote in his most recent book, "the seeds of deglobalization were sown decades ago." Since then, the world has seen both demographic and economic shifts that further validate his analysis. In this episode, Peter High interviews Peter Zeihan about his deep insights on topics intersecting demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security. The conversation delves into Zeihan's perspectives on Stalin's influence on the global order, the early indicators of deglobalization, and the demographic challenges leading to economic declines. Zeihan provides an in-depth look at the geopolitical futures of major powers like China, Russia, and the United States. He explains the mechanisms driving historic trends, the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and what might be expected on the world stage in the coming years. Pivoting more locally, Zeihan discusses his predictions for the 2024 US Presidential elections, what each candidate’s win might mean for America’s role on the world stage, and what needs to happen for the US to keep pace with the shifting trends toward deglobalization. Finally, Zeihan gives his thoughts on which other countries might come out on top in the coming years once the dust settles.
*This interview was recorded on June 20th, 2024 prior to the first Presidential Debate.*
00:00 Introduction to Technovation
00:51 Stalin's Influence on Global Order
02:03 The Seeds of Deglobalization
04:08 China's Demographic and Economic Crisis
17:30 India's Prospects and Challenges
20:57 Russia's Geopolitical Strategy and Ukraine Conflict
31:01 Nuclear Risks with China and Russia
31:31 Corruption in Chinese Military
32:48 US Missile Defense Limitations
33:19 Debate on US Response to Russian Aggression
34:32 Ukraine's Use of US Weapon Systems
35:50 Potential Conflict Over Taiwan
37:50 Impact of Deglobalization on the US
39:20 2024 US Presidential Election Predictions
47:22 Immigration's Role in US Demographics
50:28 Countries with Positive Long-Term Prospects
53:44 Challenges and Opportunities for the UK
55:48 Future Global Economic Models
56:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
An audio-only version of this interview is available as episode 887 of Metis Strategy’s podcast, #Technovation with Peter High. Learn more at bit.ly/Technovation-887.
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#podcast #peterzeihan

Пікірлер: 330
@MetisStrategy
@MetisStrategy 12 күн бұрын
We apologize for any confusion. It is important to note that this interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.
@urbanistgod
@urbanistgod 12 күн бұрын
I forgive you.
@mustavogaia2655
@mustavogaia2655 11 күн бұрын
No problem. Some other channels are just rehashing old audio as new interview - and this is clearely not the case. Apart from that, the Zeihan audience is so attentive that can time his appeareance by the length of his hair. Maybe the photo on the thumb caused part of the confusion.
@zibbitybibbitybop
@zibbitybibbitybop 11 күн бұрын
Guessing where the heck on the planet Peter is gonna pop up next is sort of a fun game for us to play at this point. 😂
@noahway13
@noahway13 9 күн бұрын
I guess that is why the debate was not covered...
@noahway13
@noahway13 9 күн бұрын
Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the workings of a future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.
@tonywilson4713
@tonywilson4713 12 күн бұрын
There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.
@matiasrodriguez6981
@matiasrodriguez6981 12 күн бұрын
Did you not hear them refer to the debate?? There is your answer.
@user-um5bk6fw1l
@user-um5bk6fw1l 12 күн бұрын
And your point is?
@dmka12
@dmka12 12 күн бұрын
​@@user-um5bk6fw1l his point is there are a tremendous number of silly channels out there that take years old zeihan interviews and post them as new. What's the point in watching pre covid interviews etc or interviews during the Trump administration
@cosmothewonderdog8602
@cosmothewonderdog8602 12 күн бұрын
@@tonywilson4713 And this matters because???
@tonywilson4713
@tonywilson4713 12 күн бұрын
@@matiasrodriguez6981 Yeah which debate in which year? Go look at Peter's last video posted on his own channel. Look at the length of his beard. This interview was NOT done that recently.
@telluwide5553
@telluwide5553 12 күн бұрын
This had to be recorded before "the debate"....
@blafonovision4342
@blafonovision4342 10 күн бұрын
No difference. Only weirdos are paying attention to politics at this point. Regular people don’t pay attention until after Labor Day.
@bathhatingcat8626
@bathhatingcat8626 14 сағат бұрын
@@blafonovision4342 are weirdos still the only ones paying attention? Bang bang bang 😂
@jimparker880
@jimparker880 13 күн бұрын
Whether or not PZ is right on all of his points, his real genius, imo, is in getting us to think about these issues.
@jean-marcfiliatrault266
@jean-marcfiliatrault266 12 күн бұрын
I would go further. PZ’s unique offering to the World is his ability to include so many distinct fields of knowledge and related facts and data into one vision of how things will unfold. Indeed, it’s the first time that somebody includes History, demography, economics, geography and geology into one! Everybody else typically uses one or two fields of knowledge to come up with a prediction.
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
Agree! He even mentioned my own concerns about how fast agricultural production is declining as the climate crisis gets worse
@kevindivine2869
@kevindivine2869 7 күн бұрын
The only thing he seems to have a harder time with is American elections. He tends to look at a macro level, which was good enough for 2022, but I think he also can ignore the effect of perception-- and I believe he discounts the general pissed-off-ness of the current American electorate, especially in the swing states. I also feel like he doesn't account for the effect of black swan events on American national politics, and now we have had three in a month 1] that Trump did get convicted, but outside of a few pockets most people understand it's a screw job; 2] Biden died, figuratively, in the debate and the Ds have formed a circular firing squad; and 3] Trump damn well came within a *literal centimeter* of actually dying last night. Add to that the fact that Trump [and his campaign, but mostly him] has suddenly learned to be prudent and circumspect, which has made this election a referendum on Biden, who is failing spectacularly. Like Ben Shapiro said on Bill Maher's show a couple nights ago, it's like when the velociraptors in Jurassic Park figured out the doorknobs--mayhem is going to ensue.
@TheStephaneAdam
@TheStephaneAdam Күн бұрын
@@kevindivine2869 Indeed. Zeihan is a good generalist who's great at pointing out macro tendencies but he has two big weaknesses. First is that he tends to underestimate how adaptable nations and structures can be when they have to. China for example has pushed for increased productivity and with some migration the demographic collapse becomes a much gentler slope. Second he tends to miss how small structural details or individuals can shape things at critical moments. Like the Democrats being a very wide tent that's just not built to fight something like the Trump cult of personality backed by a captured Supreme Court.
@burnettis1
@burnettis1 13 күн бұрын
Peter is great, wonderful. But, I have not heard him say anything new, in a lonnnnnng time! 🇮🇪🎊🎉🤣
@chrishooge3442
@chrishooge3442 13 күн бұрын
That's because demographics and geography don't change over the short term.
@WoTMike1989
@WoTMike1989 13 күн бұрын
@@burnettis1 i think people got a little excited by Peter’s Ukraine War videos. Generally, the stuff he studies doesn’t change a whole lot over short periods of time. We get updates when updates actually happen. The Ukraine War was different and is what brought him to a wider audience. There was new information on a daily, sometimes hourly, basis
@cosmothewonderdog8602
@cosmothewonderdog8602 13 күн бұрын
He has a thesis. It hasn’t changed. He just conveys it to different audiences. If you keep watching these videos, then you’re going to hear the same thing over and over. It’s not like he’s come to a different conclusion.
@user-bz8dv3lx5x
@user-bz8dv3lx5x 13 күн бұрын
Hes just been proven wron time and time again. russia will lose war. China collapse because of wave 2 covid dudes a CIA plant.
@tonywilson4713
@tonywilson4713 12 күн бұрын
There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.
@holtcrowder
@holtcrowder 8 күн бұрын
This was obviously recorded a while back. Love Peters commentary, even when he gets it wrong , which is usually surrounding US politics. He is a self admittedly a leftist. Therefore he his political bias shines through. Leftist cannot help themselves when they are dealing with TDS. However I totally enjoy his commentary regardless. I have learned to filter his bias and glean insight post bias filtering. Good job Peter.
@LoriNorwood-ew7xd
@LoriNorwood-ew7xd 5 күн бұрын
I believe he considers himself a globalist. Not really what either party is offering at the moment. In so far as immigration is our superpower and “the greatest skills transfer” in history, the MAGA obsession with xenophobia is just counterproductive nonsense.
@holtcrowder
@holtcrowder 5 күн бұрын
@@LoriNorwood-ew7xd You are probably correct. However, in my opinion all globalist are leftist. They want to control and oversee every aspect of our lives. They may be worst than just leftist.
@josephagnello3603
@josephagnello3603 Күн бұрын
Agree with you completely!
@noahway13
@noahway13 9 күн бұрын
The most intelligent questions I have heard in a long time. Good show.
@charleswomack2166
@charleswomack2166 13 күн бұрын
I wanted to commend you on an excellent video. Your questions are brilliant, and I really liked the timestamps. The summary of the video was superb. A bit longer than most, but since it was so well written, it's a good thing. Subscribed
@Sundayfunnies
@Sundayfunnies 9 күн бұрын
Peter predicted bit coin would be on it way to less than zero.... $57000 +
@Elaina_B
@Elaina_B 9 күн бұрын
Thank you for your insights - What a show!
@raleighgilbert3067
@raleighgilbert3067 6 күн бұрын
Peter thank you very much for your very clear and understandable assessment! I am continually sharing your information!
@tankieslayer6927
@tankieslayer6927 12 күн бұрын
Peter is still in denial after that disastrous debate lol
@roblangsdorf8758
@roblangsdorf8758 11 күн бұрын
The correct name for the inflation act should have been "the inflation PRODUCTION act". Atleast in the short-term. Long-term some of it may produce retooling that could help our economy. But our long-term debt may bring us down before then.
@pim8268
@pim8268 11 күн бұрын
This was fun!
@fkxfkx
@fkxfkx 13 күн бұрын
By now, those antique fireworks are not likely to even make it out of their silos.
@ForAndroid101
@ForAndroid101 11 күн бұрын
"Adults aren't stupid." What reality does this guy live in??? Clearly not the same one I live in...or that George Carlin lived in.
@sephiroth6839
@sephiroth6839 12 күн бұрын
Peter is great for geography, demographics and industrial inputs. Trump breaks his mind.
@user-xj6ym2jf5c
@user-xj6ym2jf5c 12 күн бұрын
Trump isn't queer
@pecan11
@pecan11 12 күн бұрын
No he doesn’t He just thinks he’s demented bec he is
@sephiroth6839
@sephiroth6839 12 күн бұрын
@@pecan11 Peters original prediction is Trump would win 12 states. Ain’t no way.
@darachilds6817
@darachilds6817 12 күн бұрын
I agree. I will hold Peter is the absolute highest regard if he calls this election correctly. As it is, Trump lost the last election by 44k votes in 6 states when the majority were just so sick and tired of him. Now the roles are reversed and Trump (who always outperforms the polls) is leading. I think Trump might win 350 EC votes at this rate and quite possibly the popular vote.
@VancouverInvestor
@VancouverInvestor 12 күн бұрын
I agree...but don't underestimate the ability for midnight vote dumps from the Dem side.
@redcoltken
@redcoltken 13 күн бұрын
So we need a theoretical guide via economics that can propose a system with labor, capital ect.. in decline. Anyone know anybody who is doing stuff like that ?
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
Perhaps the balance between Labour and Capital needs to be re-established? Production is a partnership, neither one can exist without the other, without balance nothing gets made, both must gain… capital must get the larger reward because it takes the greatest risk but labour must gain or it moves to opportunities with higher reward. It’s not rocket science.
@kennethhill4623
@kennethhill4623 10 күн бұрын
The more I hear Zeihan the more it seems hes just saying the things the people who pay for his advice want to hear.
@Xius_WoW
@Xius_WoW 12 күн бұрын
See peter zeihan interview, watch peter zeihan interview. Never skip!
@flxjay8985
@flxjay8985 13 күн бұрын
What I do not agree in all of Peter thinking about Russia is their "frontier problem". If nobody will think invading Russia, because will get lost on the vast teritory, even only the european part, a teritory that doesn't have enough infrastructure, roads and railways, in the same way Napoleon get lost and Hitler's armies cannot hold the oil fields near Stalingrad, why the russians will need advanced frontier to the heart of Europe? Is about control of teritories, resources and populations. Is about acces to Bosphorus and better shores on Baltics. Is about the control they had in soviet times. So, about all these countries found protection in NATO, but Putin has his own interpretation about having NATO at the gates.
@darachilds6817
@darachilds6817 12 күн бұрын
I think you are mistaking how Russia views themselves with how you and I and the rest of the world views them. Their history tells them they are at risk.
@flxjay8985
@flxjay8985 12 күн бұрын
@@darachilds6817 The last two invasions on Russia were in 1812 by Napoleon, and in 1941 by Hitler. Both bites the dirt because of almost imposible logistics, terrain and winter. Have any ideea how russians have done war beyond their western border in the last.... 300 years, and why? Why did they atacked Poland and Finland in '39? Because of danger of being invaded by these countries?
@noahway13
@noahway13 9 күн бұрын
@@flxjay8985 I agree with you, I think. I don't think Russia is threatened by NATO at its door. I think they don't want NATO to advance closer because that takes away countries THEY can invade. BUT, I'm not sure, because of psychology-- like when a spouse is cheating, they are very suspicious of the other one cheating. Russia knows it wants to invade (I think we can think of a recent example...), so they are suspicious of getting invaded.
@cosmothewonderdog8602
@cosmothewonderdog8602 13 күн бұрын
Thanks for pronouncing his name correctly.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany”etc at all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they are willing to give up to support having children, the more healthy a population becomes the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is an in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is very focused on China but fails to recognise that the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobia/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense what the analysis describes is China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but foreign ethnic labour and consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest we are all doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell l… it’s a fascinating era.
@user-ws2gn3wp4s
@user-ws2gn3wp4s 12 күн бұрын
Peter!
@RubenCLeon
@RubenCLeon 11 күн бұрын
How many Chinese landing craft could avoid "smart" weapons? How many Chinese paratroopers could avoid "smart" weapons? How long could a Chinese military venture last, once the Mideast oil is cut off through the strait of Malacca? The US probably won't risk their carriers, but the US could deploy a dozen or more subs to close the Taiwan strait.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
Perhaps, but China is not really dependent on supply from the middle-east, they have established supply lines from Russia’s eastern assets. The dependence on the Straits of Malacca supply lines are not as strategic as they once were.
@jackiepie7423
@jackiepie7423 13 күн бұрын
was this recorded before the debate?
@rjsisco6056
@rjsisco6056 13 күн бұрын
I think so. If you go to Zeihan on geopolitics, his KZbin channel, he has his reaction to the debate posted CliffsNotes version; Trump will still lose because the true independents won’t vote away their votes
@0rthogonal
@0rthogonal 13 күн бұрын
Doesn’t matter. Zeihan doesn’t know shit about elections or polling. Pre-debate Trump is running away with it.
@listener523
@listener523 13 күн бұрын
Pete is an interesting guy. He has this complex global model based on multiple interactions. Yet he gets his domestic views from tabloids like the Times.
@cdzrocks
@cdzrocks 13 күн бұрын
I'm definitely bookmarking this he's calling a big shot here.
@Tea4Texas
@Tea4Texas 13 күн бұрын
Yep. Biden wins and the right (including me) will turn our backs on democracy.
@s0.0s
@s0.0s 12 күн бұрын
Peter also predicted BMW wouldn't be able to produce cars this year because of the Ukraine war.
@davidz7858
@davidz7858 12 күн бұрын
His prediction is opposite of truth
@ljyljy88
@ljyljy88 11 күн бұрын
No he predicted in the next 10 to 15 years due to a lack of a replacement generation of workers and engineers to support German manufacturing.
@s0.0s
@s0.0s 10 күн бұрын
@@ljyljy88 No, he specifically said BMW would run out of wires and copper and replacements would be so prohibitively expensive that they would stop manufacturing.
@PhilipEvang
@PhilipEvang 10 күн бұрын
Outstanding! Do yourself a favor and listen to this video!
@JS-mo4nx
@JS-mo4nx 12 күн бұрын
No doubt Peter is highly intelligent but where is he getting his statistics? It would be fresh if he could just put forth his opinions without his left of center ,democratic political leanings seeping through. It is truly obvious in his dialogue. His presentations are becoming less interesting and questionably on point.
@Vanedis003
@Vanedis003 10 күн бұрын
Peter says Chinas population declines and China cannot feed itself. But if the population declines, there will be more food per person, not? I really don't understand why population decline is a problem. There are more upsides than downsides, I think.
@billpetersen298
@billpetersen298 8 күн бұрын
If most of the rural poor, are just old people. Where the younger few, have gone to the cities, as migrant workers. Rural farm production, and its infrastructure, will suffer.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
That’s a difficult and complex equation but at its simplistic level to grow an economy requires more consumers, if there are fewer consumers and therefore more human assets required to be redeployed to food production then demand for high value consumer goods falls. That is far too simplistic but it makes things very (very) difficult for a government where the individual has no influence over change.
@glassman304
@glassman304 13 күн бұрын
Role/future of Africa and Mexico in your predictions?
@JohnDoe-td3xx
@JohnDoe-td3xx 11 күн бұрын
Cheap labor and mid lvl manufacturing, respectively And tequila!
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
A very interesting question.
@KilianTrenkle
@KilianTrenkle 12 күн бұрын
If China is going down soon, how can you explain that platforms like TEMU or brands like SHEIN have risen to the top within the last few years? Can anyone explain?
@unsungronin8093
@unsungronin8093 13 күн бұрын
When was this interview recorded?
@tonywilson4713
@tonywilson4713 12 күн бұрын
YES EXACTLY and I have commented else where as a few others have. I know form his own channel that he's currently in Italy while the background for this shows he was at home in Colorado when this happened. The last time Peter did one of his own videos with that background was 5 months ago.
@MetisStrategy
@MetisStrategy 12 күн бұрын
We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
A while ago.
@oferzeira8125
@oferzeira8125 12 күн бұрын
Excellent conversation
@mk1fourwinds62
@mk1fourwinds62 12 күн бұрын
Do we go back to a pre-industrial economic model? A nation of small to medium sized family oriented businesses? Churning dollars over back and forth in smaller amounts but on a massive scale? Deconcentration of wealth back to the citizenry? A nation of savers instead of consumers? Nah, nevermind. Couldn’t work.
@todd8856
@todd8856 12 күн бұрын
Trump will shock them all . . .
@p.d.stanhope7088
@p.d.stanhope7088 13 күн бұрын
Well, the CCP's Third Plenum is coming up in the next week. We might get an idea on what Xi is thinking with the official releases from the state media and the various interpretations from the China watchers.
@Gemini73883
@Gemini73883 12 күн бұрын
Soon the world will move on!
@JimmiesChoices
@JimmiesChoices 11 күн бұрын
I wonder how Peter thinks of the policies of the WEF and how this influences the west politics and economics The centralising of power in the central banks
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
The WEF is largely an ‘influencer’ and exactly what the name says a forum. It has no real power to dictate the authority of any countries policy or power… the forum may attempt to create some consensus but no more than that. It has no power to compel.
@lowi0008
@lowi0008 9 күн бұрын
Peter's great and I have tons of respect for him but the thing I never see acknowledged is that if his theory about Russia being dead-set on plugging/occupying land gaps to their motherland is incorrect then the entire raison d'etre for the supporting Ukraine to ever increasing degrees is completely invalidated and we're rushing hyper-aggressively into a conflict that has a very high likelihood of triggering the 90-minute nuclear war that permanently ends civilization and virtually all human life on earth. To me, that's an insane amount of confidence to put behind a course of action for which we only have our interpretation of historical analogs as evidence. When I consider this in context of how our government has been made a disaster of every conflict since Vietnam (perhaps with the exception of GW I), I'm not left with a great deal of confidence that they're operating with a great deal of competency or clarity in executing this conflict either. If it turns out that Ukraine is on par with Afghanistan (in terms of modeling and execution of the conflict) then we (i.e. the entire human race) is very likely in grave danger.
@4Fixerdave
@4Fixerdave 9 күн бұрын
The problem is old and the solution inevitable, although insane. When someone with access to nuclear weapons threatens to use them "unless..." then the only logical solution is to forcefully push back. No leader can get away with nuclear blackmail. Allowing that would inevitably lead to further blackmail by that leader or another. Eventually, the blackmail price will hit the point where an all-out nuclear exchange is inevitable. So, we might as well get it on now. This is the undeniable logic of MAD. Was the initial support for Ukraine wise? It's possible to debate that. But, we did and then Putin made veiled threats about nukes. That's it, it's done, we're in. If we back out, Putin, Kim, or the next one will do it again, and again, and again, until the world ends. Threatening nukes to gain some offensive advantage cannot be allowed to work, our survival depends on this. There is no longer any logical argument to be made for not supporting Ukraine such that it will not lose. Though, that will not stop all the arguments about how much support we might give for it to win. And yes, I also don't think the logic of "a defensible border" makes a lot of sense for invading Ukraine and that the 2022 prediction was just luck,. I think it was just Putin messing with Ukrainian politics, losing to Maidan, then annexing Crimea because he was worried about losing Sevastopol. Then, the Ukrainians cut off the water to Crimea and when (in 2022) the reservoirs were down to 7%, he had to either invade or evacuate the civilians... he chose wrong again. It's not always driven by demographics and geography. Sometimes, a lot of times, it all starts with a mistake that snowballs... there was an old lady that swallowed a fly.
@atanacioluna292
@atanacioluna292 11 күн бұрын
China has huge waters wealth, and land fertility. They also have huge educational investment because education is sacred. They are way bigger than the US in Purchasing Power Parity. They are also wise beyond Western perspectives. So... stop cheering for their demise. I returen this week from 40 days there. China works well, their trains run at 120 to 150 MPH and on time. Their air is on time too. The streets are faster than ours to get you from point a to point b, including Shianghai.
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
China doesn’t have enough fertilizer or fuel or water or actually fertile farmland to feed itself. And, look at how much the climate crisis has hammered water supplies and agricultural production this year and last. China is living dangerously with its reliance on its massive food and fertilizer imports. Only a handful of countries in the world are still significant food exporters. And, food prices are rising because of increasing conflicts throughout the world, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, declining soil fertility, water availability and agricultural production and a rising world population. Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s most important agricultural countries, aren’t exporting as much food and fertilizer as they used to. China, India and many other countries will be seeing significant food shortages within the decade.
@TheVeritas2100
@TheVeritas2100 12 күн бұрын
acording to the record, this was recorded on June 20th, 2024 ... (before the 'debate', not that it matters ! ) Zeihan should STAY AWAY FROM THE DOMESTIC POLITICS ! He sucks to High Heaven !
@pauljazzman408
@pauljazzman408 12 күн бұрын
Very interesting but I echo the comment about when this interview was filmed? Surely there are questions about Biden now after recent poor interview. Maybe that doesn’t affect the election because he is better than the alternative. Interesting about Globalisation was ‘just to get the world on (the USA) our side’. So interesting about population decline, when I was at college we still thought overpopulation was a problem. Now it’s the lack of a young workforce that’s the problem, which many countries fix with immigration. But as Peter says integration can be a problem and I would say that unscrupulous politicians can use the backlash to get elected.
@MetisStrategy
@MetisStrategy 12 күн бұрын
We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.
@laszlobeke7908
@laszlobeke7908 12 күн бұрын
Mr. Doom and Gloom
@hemlock40
@hemlock40 12 күн бұрын
The only country US is immigration is Canada? That seems to leave out a lot.
@rosesoulis1840
@rosesoulis1840 12 күн бұрын
Makes you look at things......Peter needs to get a lil MAGA IN HIM................AMERICA IS THE ONLY THING......NO ONE IS OUR CANNON FODDER......WE HAD NO SECURITY FEAR PETER.....
@MistikaManiac
@MistikaManiac 9 күн бұрын
Idk about China not being able to compete in high end production. BYD and Hauwei have made insane strides. China by far leads the world in battery technology. China now has luxury cars that outcompete european luxury brands in terms of mileage and reliability. Their ranges as far as EV's are concerned absolutely destroy the competition. , Hauwei just unveiled a phone that can charge from 0-100% in 8 minutes. They have the best cameras a phone can have. They have replicated and are catching up on generative AI, and as far as general AI applications they're the best. Toyota just partnered with Hauwei to use components for autonomous driving. I just don't see it. I'd love to be proven wrong.
@scottpi729
@scottpi729 8 күн бұрын
He's calling for a Biden Landslide. So . . . he's an idiot?
@noahway13
@noahway13 9 күн бұрын
Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
Good points! And neoliberal capitalism has always been a Ponzi scheme. We humans have so far overdrawn the world’s resources and ecological capital that our resource and ecological deficits make the US debt look like a manageable problem. And the climate crisis, as the US Military calls it, is the big threat multiplier. Our economic and societal collapse is ensured.
@timharris2252
@timharris2252 8 күн бұрын
Could China not try to evolve into a service economy with 500 million citizens fairly well off and well educated semi South Korea like and outsource the grunt work to VietNam region.
@aravinddnivara803
@aravinddnivara803 12 күн бұрын
Peter Zeihen is a genius in terms of historic data and future strategy. I just have one problem when it comes to his analysis. In all his predictions USA comes on top like in Hollywood movies. if only he comes out of this imaginative world with obsession for his country USA , he will see that world will be a more multilateral / multipolar / dynamic power shift prone system , where NO one country (USA) or one power concentration ( EU or NATO or five eyes) can say they are morally superior and use their dangerous power concentration to arm-twist a less powerful nation… we will see more and more countries collapsing economically in developing world while Islamists and leftists will ruin USA / UK/germany / France. All four of these countries don’t make enough babies and have to import humans like beef or chicken to run USA economy. The immigrants who come may not hate Russia like existing white Americans and new immigrants may also be not ready to fight USA a war or may not believe in USA maintaining its imaginary superpower status when most nations have woken up to USA s sanctions based diplomacy. USA can be a powerful force but it won’t be able to control the world any more…
@keithpeterson9560
@keithpeterson9560 12 күн бұрын
Question to you; Who would be the puppet master and who would be the puppet? I think there is no place in a 21st century world for imperialist dominant type thinking. If we can’t share what this life has to offer we will not make it as a species.
@calglider13
@calglider13 12 күн бұрын
And WE (the Goverment of The United States) have lost the faith and trust of the majority of the other Nations of the world. You don't tell people "Hay, let US keep your gold in OUR bank. We will keep it safe, and give it back whenever you want." but read the fine print. "Unless we don't want to, or if you do something we don't like..."
@charleswomack2166
@charleswomack2166 13 күн бұрын
Peter is brilliant on China, but completely unaware of what has been happening here in the US Regarding immigration, the US has long standing legal immigration for the very best and brightest(top 1%). Ideally, we could accept the top 3%.
@matth2377
@matth2377 13 күн бұрын
Part of the problem is that we don’t need the top 3%. We need people who are skilled in blue collar labor, and we need them faster than we can vet them. I’m not thrilled about letting tons of immigrants in, but perfect is not on the menu when it comes to solving immigration in the US.
@henli-rw5dw
@henli-rw5dw 13 күн бұрын
I just don't see how anything he says will play out for China. Communists don't have to accomodate special interests, no gridlocks. The experts debate, and solution is rolled out. For example for demographics, they've already started paying couples to have children. Right now it's $4k for the 3rd kid in Guang Zho.
@oats6452
@oats6452 13 күн бұрын
​@@brijac04Dude do you know who you're talking to? This is CharlesWomack2166. That's Charles-fucking-Womack, bro. He know his shiz.
@TJ-vh2ps
@TJ-vh2ps 13 күн бұрын
⁠@@oats6452Exactly! The 2166 in his name is because that’s the year he was born: he’s from the future! He knows what he’s talking about. 😂
@Seicks
@Seicks 12 күн бұрын
I'm sorry, but I frankly fail to see how Peter Zeihan is brilliant on.China. He's predicted China's collapse half a dozen times, and China's still there...
@jeremyholbrook2094
@jeremyholbrook2094 11 күн бұрын
I think what you're saying about inflation is wage inflation. Reducing wage inflation to deflate wages is a problem. This continues to be the source of inequality in this country. Don't tax to pay for things. Just deflate wages. Taxation requires cuts and guts. Both parties lack backbone. So I'll vote for the bat shit crazy until it's been addressed.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
Which country?
@chrisperkins7331
@chrisperkins7331 4 күн бұрын
So you think reguler folks should not have pay rises? On the other hand if you are saying that people like Musk should have their income reduced then I would agee with you.
@RubenCLeon
@RubenCLeon 11 күн бұрын
He said, prior to the Trump/Biden debate, that Trump will lose as long as Biden doesn't die. He also said he could change his mind if Biden died. Does he now believe that Biden is politically dead?
@markvargus6519
@markvargus6519 9 күн бұрын
He despises the Drumph (Trump). I think his hatred of Trump has definitely colored his analysis of the election. He just assumes that the majority of independents hate Trump as much as he does. Honestly, I have no way to figure out what's going to happen in this election.
@inzhener2007
@inzhener2007 9 күн бұрын
I live in Russia, and i like Peter, but i hate him for using "security" and "defend" when talking about Russia. Russia never felt insecurity. Moscow wants to expand the empire that's all
@vortigern3910
@vortigern3910 11 күн бұрын
If you can have a global humiliation, every second of this conflict has been a global humiliation for Putin , i mean really, there must be a very high bar for humiliation in Russia.🙃
@mystictraveler8642
@mystictraveler8642 12 сағат бұрын
Well stop causing chaos around the world. Maybe nobody will want to harm you. Stop harming others
@JohnDoe-td3xx
@JohnDoe-td3xx 11 күн бұрын
The debate + prosecution of Trump only solidified the republican base.
@bobtarmac1828
@bobtarmac1828 12 күн бұрын
Talk about global destruction. Is it too late to cease Ai? Will everyone be… laid off by Ai? Suffering Ai jobloss for years? Swell robotics doing everything? Then everyone made slaves for an Ai new world order?
@Jarhead56
@Jarhead56 12 күн бұрын
What does the genius PZ say about the election now??? He needs some serious TDS deprogramming. If he turns out to be right I’ll come back and give him props for his prediction. .
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
Peter tried to be apolitical and base his analyses on history, economics and demographics. Ideological extremists on both the left and right have a hard time with people who don’t let themselves be blinded by ideology.
@williamgatheist1314
@williamgatheist1314 8 күн бұрын
With A.I. and well over 2 million engineers in China, I'm sorry but calling for the demise of China is so premature.
@chrisperkins7331
@chrisperkins7331 4 күн бұрын
The problem with your thought is that AI and 2 million engineer cant fix the problem that all western stysled economies have. That is, the idea that on a planet of limited resourceses endless growth is possible; Humanity has created a life style that nature can't support. If natures recycleing capasity colapses than we go back to the stone age.
@skyefarnam7857
@skyefarnam7857 7 күн бұрын
What if China immigrated 500 million young people from the third world to work the economy?
@johndamascus6039
@johndamascus6039 11 күн бұрын
I've been following Mr. Zeihan for 6 years. He will entice you with his confidence and bold statements, and with good skills in presentation. However, nearly all of his predictions are incorrect and what's worse, he's clearly a shill for the 3 letter agencies. It really is that simple. I can list all of the incorrect predictions, but if you doubt it, just keep following him (at your peril).
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
Yogi Berra said “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.”
@freeheeler09
@freeheeler09 9 күн бұрын
Peter knows that a significant fraction of his predictions will be wrong. But even the best batters in baseball only get on base a third of the time. I disagree with Peter’s predictions on agricultural productivity and resource shortages; I’m much more of a doomer. Peter is unique in having the courage to put himself out there. And the great value of his predictions is the serious conversations they start.
@getlostlser
@getlostlser 8 күн бұрын
Soon as it gets to @39:20 just quit.
@williamflack6691
@williamflack6691 12 күн бұрын
PZ is so far off on SE Asia I can't believe it. I live here, have for over a decade. The corruption and the influence of the military and Oligarchs is entrenched. Also, the demographics, especially Thailand, are almost as bad as China. PZ is all over the map and I would question/test any of his observations by plumbing alternative opinions. He's provocative but blows a lot of smoke!
@johndamascus6039
@johndamascus6039 11 күн бұрын
See my recent post. I've followed him for years. He's a charlatan who gets or grifts via the three letter agencies. None of his predictions of any import are correct. He is also totally indifferent to the complete cultural destruction of the USA, because he's been chosen due to rainbow status (few are aware of that reality and strategy by the handlers).
@jimgolab536
@jimgolab536 12 күн бұрын
Is one “solution” for China to adopt a “Lebensraum” policy to its fertile neighbors to the south?
@waynegore5291
@waynegore5291 12 күн бұрын
Zeihan is lower version of Gordon Chang with worse and less education.
@bobnuttall461
@bobnuttall461 5 күн бұрын
Peter speaks so quickly as if that lends credibility… at no point does he really identify any weakness in the current state of the US economy or its equivalent issues with demographics, labour and intellectual capital. (US will always be greatest, China, Russia bad, can only lose… US unbeatable)… Slow down on every sentence buddy, it will make a difference (it’s like Neil Degrass Tyson v Carl Sagan)… one is arrogant, one is a teacher… Peter is arrogant, settle petal… don’t speak down to people as if we are ignorant. As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany” etc., all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they need to spend to support having lots of children, the more healthy a population the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive, and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is increase in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is initially very focused on Peter’s perception of China’s economic and demographic weakness but fails to recognise the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s the fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobic/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense way Peter’s analysis describes China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism but a Xenophobic intent to ‘take’ but never an intent to ‘share’). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but not foreign ethnic labour and , irrelevant of their need… consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example xenophobia v demographic collapse. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest China is doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell… it’s a fascinating era. So let’s summarise the assumptions: 1: Xi dies, something happens, incompetent people take control. I think that’s unrealistic. 2. China currently produces low end consumer products based on a competitive advantage of low cost labour but is incapable of moving up the value scale. Japan has proved that is a successful strategy. Government subsidies are supporting industry… mmm like the US agriculture subsidies fundamentally underpin the very survival of that sector, without those subsidies US agriculture would simply be unable to to compete in the domestic market, let alone in the global market. These arguments lack any sort of substance, politically motivated, and unable to recognise the paradox and the parallels with Japan post WWII from… “Japanese stuff is cheap crap, to hey it’s cheap but not really crap, better than the stuff we make here…”… And the we get the concepts of inevitable failure of Russian and China’s conflict strategies, Peter’s analysis are wildly optimistic about competence and capability.., a whole other discussion Short story, slow the heck down.
@davidwestwater2219
@davidwestwater2219 13 күн бұрын
Peter will never say anything bad about the military or nsa or cia.
@Brockliy
@Brockliy 13 күн бұрын
??? that’s not his job my guy
@firefly9838
@firefly9838 13 күн бұрын
They are evil... but they are necessary evil... and he knows that
@CentauriSphere
@CentauriSphere 12 күн бұрын
so what
@Brockliy
@Brockliy 12 күн бұрын
@@firefly9838 what does evil mean? do you honestly think every person working in these agencies are bad people? they’re everyday americans my god the conspiracy brain rot is insane
@Angry_Indian24
@Angry_Indian24 8 күн бұрын
Peter is lying and in this whole podcast he didn't mention anything about defence corridor of US, effects of petro - dollar which gave rise to infinite minting of dollars. Today it has stopped.
@michaelbishton9439
@michaelbishton9439 10 күн бұрын
I think this is pompous crap. In the long run, globalization will grow. Human migration has been going on for over a hundred thousand years. Human trade around the world has been going on for over 40,000 years, ever since people were living as tribes, not nation-states. People innately understand the economic benefits of global trade and migration, and will continue to do so, with or without nation-states, as long as it is humanly possible and economically beneficial.
@signoresantinoburnett1169
@signoresantinoburnett1169 12 күн бұрын
Peter has never been right about anything. One of the biggest grifters around.
@jonahft294
@jonahft294 4 күн бұрын
One sided view. Not providing true picture.
@LiveWellUkraine
@LiveWellUkraine 13 күн бұрын
Peter is smart, well informed, but he doesn't do nuance because it's bad "tv". Peter is VERY good at what he does. He is a generalist. Which means he only reports on the broadest strokes. He might know the nuance and detailed perspectives... but you don't hear that from him. It's important that anyone listening to him understands this. The best example what him saying Ireland has no agriculture, or too little agriculture. In the broadest sense, an argument could be made for this. But the details reveal that the Irish agricultural "brand" is a huge money maker. Also regarding Russia, Biden has squandered at least one Ukrainian chance for victory by worrying too much about "escalation management". Had Biden let you Ukraine win by giving it what it needed in the window of opportunity, Russia would be out of 90% of non Crimea Ukraine and would be negotiating what to do with Crimea. Instead 100,000s of more deaths.
@chrishooge3442
@chrishooge3442 13 күн бұрын
Russia always had to lose slowly or they would escalate. You've got the benefit of hindsight...as do I. Putin stuck his hand into a wood chipper and now it's chewed up to his shoulder. His economy is wrecked. The Russian military and it's reputation is wrecked. Nobody wants Russian military equipment now...because it's shown to be inferior. Meanwhile some 500,000 men have been killed or catastrophically wounded. Another 1+ million have fled the country. Russia's demographics are on a terminal decline. This ends the same as 1917.
@LiveWellUkraine
@LiveWellUkraine 13 күн бұрын
​@brijac04 I'm not aware of any Irish cattle farms that are not grass fed. They may grain finish. So, I'm not sure what grain they would need to grow. Also, the US imports a large percentage of our food. Even though we actually are "food secure " if we needed to be. Many people don't realize that farm subsidies serve a national security function. All that to say this... Ireland is food secure or close to it. Ireland's big problems are immigration and being a wealthy nation, only on paper. It's an accounting trick. The "Double Irish" is no more. Inflation/housing is destroying the middle class. Whether they have to import some grain is the least of their worries.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 13 күн бұрын
Peter nailed Trump and the failings of Republican Party which I’ve voted down the line since 1996. You can’t be a Republican, beat up on republicans holding different ideas, then expect those republicans to come out for you in November. I’m not for democrats, I voting against maga.
@psikeyhackr6914
@psikeyhackr6914 10 күн бұрын
There is no historical case of a technological society with electricity collapsing. We live in a world where economists pretend that planned obsolescence is not happening.
@somika87
@somika87 6 күн бұрын
Societies with electricity are not that old in historical terms. What is your point?
@psikeyhackr6914
@psikeyhackr6914 6 күн бұрын
@@somika87 That using historical examples to talk about modern societies is nonsense. Only since WWII could leaders use television to BS their citizens.
@PointduNord
@PointduNord 12 күн бұрын
Talk about complete misinformation!
@harrymaciolek9629
@harrymaciolek9629 13 күн бұрын
For someone who gets so much right, Peter is clueless concerning President Trump and the Jones Act.
@CyanTeamProductions
@CyanTeamProductions 13 күн бұрын
I can understand how he could be wrong about Trump but how is he wrong on the Jones act specifically?
@rjsisco6056
@rjsisco6056 13 күн бұрын
@@harrymaciolek9629 I’m sure his analysis of Trump as person/president is spot on; I pray he’s right about Trumps candidacy. Trump is an abomination. It’s funny that you think he’s wrong about the Jones act when those with expertise in maritime logistics (c.f. KZbinr “What’s going on with shipping”) are in 100% agreement with Zeihan. Besides being a perfect example of the dunning Kruger effect, it seems that you are a Trumper. A.k.a. neo fascist non-American
@harrymaciolek9629
@harrymaciolek9629 13 күн бұрын
@@CyanTeamProductions For a better explanation than I can give I refer you to the “What’s Going on with Shipping” channel. But it’s mainly national security implications.
@rjsisco6056
@rjsisco6056 13 күн бұрын
@@harrymaciolek9629 I follow that channel to and you’re oversimplifying Sals take on Zeihan’s take kzbin.info/www/bejne/f3-8iHSKj65jes0si=EMAo-OUDJPJWnx8A
@ShowboatHK
@ShowboatHK 13 күн бұрын
Yep. He needs to stay in his lane.
@josefernandez-hz4ep
@josefernandez-hz4ep Күн бұрын
This man, is so deluded.
@bellakrinkle9381
@bellakrinkle9381 Күн бұрын
Mental.😮
@nuki3234
@nuki3234 12 күн бұрын
WHERE DOES THE CONVICTED FELLON CRAP COME FROM? You like zoo courts?
@TheVeritas2100
@TheVeritas2100 12 күн бұрын
LOL! Zeihans gets his Talking Points from the DNC and the WH daily ... the only thing is is allowed to do is to Pick & Choose which ones to PARROT that day ! 🙂
@davidwestwater2219
@davidwestwater2219 13 күн бұрын
The Europeans had no choice but to stand between us and the soviets they could not move. We did not have to convince them.
@clifftrewin1505
@clifftrewin1505 13 күн бұрын
cia point of view
@jonathanaustinstern1
@jonathanaustinstern1 13 күн бұрын
better than the CCP point of view
@firefly9838
@firefly9838 13 күн бұрын
Evil but necessary evil like bane said
@DirectedVerdict
@DirectedVerdict 13 күн бұрын
Zeihan is losing all credibility with this election analysis 🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️
@matth2377
@matth2377 13 күн бұрын
One doesn’t have anything to do with the other. His election analysis doesn’t have anything to do with his global demographic analysis and vice versa.
@ddoppster
@ddoppster 13 күн бұрын
Says a Trumper I'd wager. Who else would sound that invested?
@listener523
@listener523 13 күн бұрын
@@matth2377 It shouldn't but it does. Effect his credibility that is. And I say this as someone who owns most of his books and generally agrees with his model. But his dogshit takes on domestic politics hurt his credibility. Because when you present stupid theories on an area outside your expertise? Anyone knowledge in thay area is going to discount your knowledge.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 13 күн бұрын
🙄what don’t you wait for it to play out to decide how off he is. I find him spot on. I’m moderate republican voting democrat. Not for Dems, against maga.
@listener523
@listener523 13 күн бұрын
@@paperandmedals8316 And I am sure that your wife's boyfriend is very proud of you. But that's not the position Zeihan put forward.
@mobilecivilian6124
@mobilecivilian6124 13 күн бұрын
I'd like to remind everyone Zeihan has repeatedly stated that he is a Democrat
@persperspersp2866
@persperspersp2866 13 күн бұрын
correct. That does not change the fact, that JUST LIKE BIDEN, Trump is completely, utterly, and totally unfit for office
@CyanTeamProductions
@CyanTeamProductions 13 күн бұрын
Thought he was an independent who votes democrat because he supports globalization
@rjsisco6056
@rjsisco6056 13 күн бұрын
@@mobilecivilian6124 this is categorically false. Go to his KZbin channel, Zeihan on Geopolitics. In his analysis of the debate he once again unequivocally states he is a true independent that will vote for either party. If you’ve read his books or spend any time listening to all of the content out there you would know he’s a big fan of the first Bush presidency. I think your bias is showing through, and I would say if he’s wrong you and your ilk will be the ones crying hardest when you get what you want(eventually the leopard will eat your face too)
@charleswomack2166
@charleswomack2166 13 күн бұрын
He is more of a Libertarian so far as I can tell. I believe that he's registered to vote in Colorado as an independent. There are also rumors that he is a homosexual. Not that his personal life is relevant, but I would not label him anything. He is a brilliant analyst, other than his domestic outlook.
@burnettis1
@burnettis1 13 күн бұрын
If it does not matter, why mention it? 🎊🎉🇮🇪😝​@@charleswomack2166
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