Peter Zeihan on the Collapse of Globalization and Shifts in Global Power Dynamics | Technovation 887

[@MetisStrategy]

We apologize for any confusion. It is important to note that this interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

[@urbanistgod]

I forgive you.

[@mustavogaia2655]

No problem. Some other channels are just rehashing old audio as new interview - and this is clearely not the case. Apart from that, the Zeihan audience is so attentive that can time his appeareance by the length of his hair. Maybe the photo on the thumb caused part of the confusion.

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

Guessing where the heck on the planet Peter is gonna pop up next is sort of a fun game for us to play at this point. 😂

[@noahway13]

I guess that is why the debate was not covered...

[@noahway13]

Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the workings of a future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.

[@jimparker880]

Whether or not PZ is right on all of his points, his real genius, imo, is in getting us to think about these issues.

[@jean-marcfiliatrault266]

I would go further. PZ’s unique offering to the World is his ability to include so many distinct fields of knowledge and related facts and data into one vision of how things will unfold. Indeed, it’s the first time that somebody includes History, demography, economics, geography and geology into one! Everybody else typically uses one or two fields of knowledge to come up with a prediction.

[@freeheeler09]

Agree! He even mentioned my own concerns about how fast agricultural production is declining as the climate crisis gets worse

[@kevindivine2869]

The only thing he seems to have a harder time with is American elections. He tends to look at a macro level, which was good enough for 2022, but I think he also can ignore the effect of perception-- and I believe he discounts the general pissed-off-ness of the current American electorate, especially in the swing states. I also feel like he doesn't account for the effect of black swan events on American national politics, and now we have had three in a month 1] that Trump did get convicted, but outside of a few pockets most people understand it's a screw job; 2] Biden died, figuratively, in the debate and the Ds have formed a circular firing squad; and 3] Trump damn well came within a *literal centimeter* of actually dying last night. Add to that the fact that Trump [and his campaign, but mostly him] has suddenly learned to be prudent and circumspect, which has made this election a referendum on Biden, who is failing spectacularly. Like Ben Shapiro said on Bill Maher's show a couple nights ago, it's like when the velociraptors in Jurassic Park figured out the doorknobs--mayhem is going to ensue.

[@TheStephaneAdam]

@@kevindivine2869 Indeed. Zeihan is a good generalist who's great at pointing out macro tendencies but he has two big weaknesses. First is that he tends to underestimate how adaptable nations and structures can be when they have to. China for example has pushed for increased productivity and with some migration the demographic collapse becomes a much gentler slope. Second he tends to miss how small structural details or individuals can shape things at critical moments. Like the Democrats being a very wide tent that's just not built to fight something like the Trump cult of personality backed by a captured Supreme Court.

[@noahway13]

The most intelligent questions I have heard in a long time. Good show.

[@telluwide5553]

This had to be recorded before "the debate"....

[@blafonovision4342]

No difference. Only weirdos are paying attention to politics at this point. Regular people don’t pay attention until after Labor Day.

[@bathhatingcat8626]

@@blafonovision4342 are weirdos still the only ones paying attention? Bang bang bang 😂

[@michaelherron4306]

Before the debate, before the assassination attempt, before Biden stepped down…

[@bathhatingcat8626]

@@RadioStaring dude says trump will lose Florida. He’s full of 💩

[@tonywilson4713]

There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.

[@matiasrodriguez6981]

Did you not hear them refer to the debate?? There is your answer.

[@JohnDavis-k6h]

And your point is?

[@dmka12]

​@@JohnDavis-k6h his point is there are a tremendous number of silly channels out there that take years old zeihan interviews and post them as new. What's the point in watching pre covid interviews etc or interviews during the Trump administration

[@cosmothewonderdog8602]

@@tonywilson4713 And this matters because???

[@tonywilson4713]

@@matiasrodriguez6981 Yeah which debate in which year? Go look at Peter's last video posted on his own channel. Look at the length of his beard. This interview was NOT done that recently.

[@charleswomack2166]

I wanted to commend you on an excellent video. Your questions are brilliant, and I really liked the timestamps. The summary of the video was superb. A bit longer than most, but since it was so well written, it's a good thing. Subscribed

[@DonaldMark-ne7se]

A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

[@kevinmarten]

These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

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[@Jamessmith-12]

I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same. Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with?

[@JacquelinePerrira]

’Carol Vivian Constable’’ is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@Jamessmith-12]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@charleswomack2166]

One slight correction to Peter's point on his Trump's advisors- his advisors throughout the 2016 campaign were his family. And specifically his children, including Jared Kushner. Everyone else-Peter is 100% correct. It's all about who flattered him most recently. I wonder what Peter's thoughts are on Australia. Australia, much like the US exports mass amounts of raw commodities including energy(high quality coal). Thusfar, the Aussies have managed to replace slowing Chinese demand with increasing Indian demand. They are afterall a penal colony of the UK. For those of you who argue that was historically true but not so much today, I would advise you to Google search Australia head of state.

[@XiusTV]

See peter zeihan interview, watch peter zeihan interview. Never skip!

[@happier665]

So yesterday and so self-righteous

[@fcwt101]

I find it difficult to trust the opinion of anyone that is this self-involved.

[@calglider13]

And WE (the Goverment of The United States) have lost the faith and trust of the majority of the other Nations of the world. You don't tell people "Hay, let US keep your gold in OUR bank. We will keep it safe, and give it back whenever you want." but read the fine print. "Unless we don't want to, or if you do something we don't like..."

[@fkxfkx]

By now, those antique fireworks are not likely to even make it out of their silos.

[@MistikaManiac]

Idk about China not being able to compete in high end production. BYD and Hauwei have made insane strides. China by far leads the world in battery technology. China now has luxury cars that outcompete european luxury brands in terms of mileage and reliability. Their ranges as far as EV's are concerned absolutely destroy the competition. , Hauwei just unveiled a phone that can charge from 0-100% in 8 minutes. They have the best cameras a phone can have. They have replicated and are catching up on generative AI, and as far as general AI applications they're the best. Toyota just partnered with Hauwei to use components for autonomous driving. I just don't see it. I'd love to be proven wrong.

[@georgechang6299]

Search "Rethinking..." , a futuristic prediction

[@BlackRaven-w4e]

What you mention is medium to low level technology, mainly consumer products.

[@burnettis1]

Peter is great, wonderful. But, I have not heard him say anything new, in a lonnnnnng time! 🇮🇪🎊🎉🤣

[@chrishooge3442]

That's because demographics and geography don't change over the short term.

[@WoTMike1989]

@@burnettis1 i think people got a little excited by Peter’s Ukraine War videos. Generally, the stuff he studies doesn’t change a whole lot over short periods of time. We get updates when updates actually happen. The Ukraine War was different and is what brought him to a wider audience. There was new information on a daily, sometimes hourly, basis

[@cosmothewonderdog8602]

He has a thesis. It hasn’t changed. He just conveys it to different audiences. If you keep watching these videos, then you’re going to hear the same thing over and over. It’s not like he’s come to a different conclusion.

[@tonywilson4713]

There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.

[@hemlock40]

Peter's great but he's been saying that China and to an extent Germany will collapse in the next decade -- since about 2010. I'm not saying it won't happen but his timelines seem tuned more to sell books and lectures.

[@jackiepie7423]

was this recorded before the debate?

[@rjsisco6056]

I think so. If you go to Zeihan on geopolitics, his KZbin channel, he has his reaction to the debate posted CliffsNotes version; Trump will still lose because the true independents won’t vote away their votes

[@0rthogonal]

Doesn’t matter. Zeihan doesn’t know shit about elections or polling. Pre-debate Trump is running away with it.

[@listener523]

Pete is an interesting guy. He has this complex global model based on multiple interactions. Yet he gets his domestic views from tabloids like the Times.

[@cdzrocks]

I'm definitely bookmarking this he's calling a big shot here.

[@Tea4Texas]

Yep. Biden wins and the right (including me) will turn our backs on democracy.

[@kennethhill4623]

The more I hear Zeihan the more it seems hes just saying the things the people who pay for his advice want to hear.

[@uberraschtedame1510]

He is an expensive "charlatan", his predictions are based on assumptions, stereotypes of leaders and nations and they tend to have a short shelf live. Everything is garnished with selected data and plenty of pedantic tones.

[@freddyrodriguez4732]

@@uberraschtedame1510 a charlatan that is vastly educated and highly employed by the top echelons of American government and academia, perhaps. Not to say that obviates the possibility of being a charlatan or a fake or propagandist in any way, these are clearly not mutually exclusive. It’s why education, and the ability for education is the very best thing we can have!!!!

[@REDVETTExxx]

Welcome to every consultant ever…

[@lurkhive3352]

I dont see either post here offering alternate probable interpretations. If you want to know how accurate it is; look at Chinas underwheling attemps to survive demographic collapse: Are you aware that China has done away with their one child policy? Not only have the replaced the one child policy with the 2 child policy as well- this has already been scrapped. On May 31, 2021 Xi Jinping announced a 3 child policy, incentivizing child birth/rearing. Although that was nearly 3 1/2 years ago, China has a birthrate of 0.5 but recall that 1.0 isnt replacment, that be 2.0. China didnt just peak demographicly 2-3 decades ago, but because of the pyramid shape, there really just isnt anyone to have children to replace them. This is a negative spiral. Think multiplying fractions: it just keeps grtting smaller. They skipped a whole generation and that group isnt having kids as well. Economic factors are compounding with cultural factors such as patriarchal responsibilities and bride price. First a man is expected to secure a residence for the famiy prior to marriage. Because of their speculate nature, underbuilt and remotely over-developed nature of real estate, current wages make this as difficult as it is currently in the U.S. or Canada to buy a home. Imagine trying to save vs inflation while working and carry for both parents with no siblings to splitnthe cost. After you get married, double that. 1 maybe 2 income, with perhaps 3 or 4 elderly parents to care for. Not only is the man expected to provide a house, but there is a bride price to pay. Recent videos have surfaced where the Bride's family extorts the groom's for addtional bride price, resulting in brawls. The end effect is saving these funds, postpones marriage and further delays childbirth. Beside the economic factors on rigid cultural norms there are others. Industrialized societies have their birthrates go down. As China relies on a more consumer driven economy, they get more into things, than families. This isnt a slam against anyone, it happens everywhere. Additional culturally movments such as the _let it rot_ or 4b movements are driving down birthrates from 25% towards 20% Add another famine, further econmic woes, or restriction of resources by a wartime economy, IMO, given that not all these factors are not merely accumulative, but multiplicave, i would expect to see China's birthrate below 20%. Maybe even 15. China will survive, they always do. They can exhange family members like the Donner party. Literally birthrate of 1/8 of replacment might be optimistic. IMO China's model that American socialist have touted as ideal and best practice will be a larger version North Korea burning coal to keep the lights on-and that just aint very green either. Not saying America is in a better postion in Nov 2024- we're one severe pestilence or crop failure from societal collapse. Going to be a brave new world out there. Glhf.😂😅😊😮😢

[@kortyEdna825]

Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich

[@NoorJari406]

I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08' crash

[@brucemichelle5689.]

You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.

[@Justinmeyer1000]

I'm blown away! mind sharing more info please? I am a young adult living in Miami where I've encountered several millionaires, and my goal is to become one as well

[@brucemichelle5689.]

I've stuck with ‘‘Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

[@Justinmeyer1000]

I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip.

[@kbrom60]

very enjoyable to listen to peter

[@planetbizzaro1839]

Gonna save this for November so I can laugh my ass off

[@harshsingh1989]

I used to be a ardent follower of Peter Zeihan. But like many other 'experts' I found out that he also either ignores or disregard some fact based on superfluous reasons.Only those facts are used which fits his narrative. The real universe doesn't give a hoot about our narratives. Once a few variable changes, the whole narrative comes down as a house of cards.

[@lepidoptera9337]

The narrative about China's population collapse was written by the Chinese party. The narrative about the exodus of foreign money from China was written by Emperor Xi. Actions have consequences.

[@pim8268]

This was fun!

[@s0.0s]

Peter also predicted BMW wouldn't be able to produce cars this year because of the Ukraine war.

[@davidz7858]

His prediction is opposite of truth

[@ljyljy88]

No he predicted in the next 10 to 15 years due to a lack of a replacement generation of workers and engineers to support German manufacturing.

[@s0.0s]

@@ljyljy88 No, he specifically said BMW would run out of wires and copper and replacements would be so prohibitively expensive that they would stop manufacturing.

[@freddyrodriguez4732]

@@s0.0sso it never happened

[@mk1fourwinds62]

Do we go back to a pre-industrial economic model? A nation of small to medium sized family oriented businesses? Churning dollars over back and forth in smaller amounts but on a massive scale? Deconcentration of wealth back to the citizenry? A nation of savers instead of consumers? Nah, nevermind. Couldn’t work.

[@m26_lemon_grenade55]

Super interesting..... I found his latest book on eBay for 9 bucks. I'll give it a read

[@geoffreynhill2833]

Zeihan is extraordinarily knowledgeable and eloquent into the bargain. Well worth watching twice. 👍🤔 ( I have to.)

[@GeoScorpion]

Uff. On the "Water in the Rocket Fuel" issue, Check out Perun who convincingly makes the argument to disregard the whole issue in threat analysis: Assume that water is NOT in solid fuel tanks, nor ICBMs (the latter of which are usually stored dry).

[@Vanedis003]

Peter says Chinas population declines and China cannot feed itself. But if the population declines, there will be more food per person, not? I really don't understand why population decline is a problem. There are more upsides than downsides, I think.

[@billpetersen298]

If most of the rural poor, are just old people. Where the younger few, have gone to the cities, as migrant workers. Rural farm production, and its infrastructure, will suffer.

[@bobnuttall461]

That’s a difficult and complex equation but at its simplistic level to grow an economy requires more consumers, if there are fewer consumers and therefore more human assets required to be redeployed to food production then demand for high value consumer goods falls. That is far too simplistic but it makes things very (very) difficult for a government where the individual has no influence over change.

[@SeattlePioneer]

[@WilliamStephenson-ij3jh]

I like the concept of just in case inventory

[@staciej2580]

Thanks.

[@RubenCLeon]

How many Chinese landing craft could avoid "smart" weapons? How many Chinese paratroopers could avoid "smart" weapons? How long could a Chinese military venture last, once the Mideast oil is cut off through the strait of Malacca? The US probably won't risk their carriers, but the US could deploy a dozen or more subs to close the Taiwan strait.

[@bobnuttall461]

Perhaps, but China is not really dependent on supply from the middle-east, they have established supply lines from Russia’s eastern assets. The dependence on the Straits of Malacca supply lines are not as strategic as they once were.

[@alanwagener9855]

I'm surprised how wrong Peter can be regarding Trump. TDS

[@raws1201]

Correction about India, there is no restriction on trade between states, before GST every state had its on taxation system.Since the introduction of GST in 2017 which made India one market.

[@cosmothewonderdog8602]

Thanks for pronouncing his name correctly.

[@Bill-f2q1j]

I'd like to see what he would say now, from 3 months ago.

[@sinbadelbedour3811]

Wow when you introduce this guy's expertise it reminds me of the shallowness when somebody becomes an expert in too many fields

[@PhilipEvang]

Outstanding! Do yourself a favor and listen to this video!

[@JimmiesChoices]

I wonder how Peter thinks of the policies of the WEF and how this influences the west politics and economics The centralising of power in the central banks

[@bobnuttall461]

The WEF is largely an ‘influencer’ and exactly what the name says a forum. It has no real power to dictate the authority of any countries policy or power… the forum may attempt to create some consensus but no more than that. It has no power to compel.

[@flxjay8985]

What I do not agree in all of Peter thinking about Russia is their "frontier problem". If nobody will think invading Russia, because will get lost on the vast teritory, even only the european part, a teritory that doesn't have enough infrastructure, roads and railways, in the same way Napoleon get lost and Hitler's armies cannot hold the oil fields near Stalingrad, why the russians will need advanced frontier to the heart of Europe? Is about control of teritories, resources and populations. Is about acces to Bosphorus and better shores on Baltics. Is about the control they had in soviet times. So, about all these countries found protection in NATO, but Putin has his own interpretation about having NATO at the gates.

[@darachilds6817]

I think you are mistaking how Russia views themselves with how you and I and the rest of the world views them. Their history tells them they are at risk.

[@flxjay8985]

@@darachilds6817 The last two invasions on Russia were in 1812 by Napoleon, and in 1941 by Hitler. Both bites the dirt because of almost imposible logistics, terrain and winter. Have any ideea how russians have done war beyond their western border in the last.... 300 years, and why? Why did they atacked Poland and Finland in '39? Because of danger of being invaded by these countries?

[@noahway13]

@@flxjay8985 I agree with you, I think. I don't think Russia is threatened by NATO at its door. I think they don't want NATO to advance closer because that takes away countries THEY can invade. BUT, I'm not sure, because of psychology-- like when a spouse is cheating, they are very suspicious of the other one cheating. Russia knows it wants to invade (I think we can think of a recent example...), so they are suspicious of getting invaded.

[@TheVeritas2100]

acording to the record, this was recorded on June 20th, 2024 ... (before the 'debate', not that it matters ! ) Zeihan should STAY AWAY FROM THE DOMESTIC POLITICS ! He sucks to High Heaven !

[@sephiroth6839]

Peter is great for geography, demographics and industrial inputs. Trump breaks his mind.

[@AlexParkhurst-p6e]

Trump isn't queer

[@pecan11]

No he doesn’t He just thinks he’s demented bec he is

[@sephiroth6839]

@@pecan11 Peters original prediction is Trump would win 12 states. Ain’t no way.

[@darachilds6817]

I agree. I will hold Peter is the absolute highest regard if he calls this election correctly. As it is, Trump lost the last election by 44k votes in 6 states when the majority were just so sick and tired of him. Now the roles are reversed and Trump (who always outperforms the polls) is leading. I think Trump might win 350 EC votes at this rate and quite possibly the popular vote.

[@VancouverInvestor]

I agree...but don't underestimate the ability for midnight vote dumps from the Dem side.

[@raleighgilbert3067]

Peter thank you very much for your very clear and understandable assessment! I am continually sharing your information!

[@DailyCheese234]

Thank you for your insights - What a show!

[@izmirwurst]

If China is going down soon, how can you explain that platforms like TEMU or brands like SHEIN have risen to the top within the last few years? Can anyone explain?

[@BlackRaven-w4e]

Seriously Temu???? 😅

[@KiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiK]

? Seriously

[@redcoltken]

So we need a theoretical guide via economics that can propose a system with labor, capital ect.. in decline. Anyone know anybody who is doing stuff like that ?

[@bobnuttall461]

Perhaps the balance between Labour and Capital needs to be re-established? Production is a partnership, neither one can exist without the other, without balance nothing gets made, both must gain… capital must get the larger reward because it takes the greatest risk but labour must gain or it moves to opportunities with higher reward. It’s not rocket science.

[@robertoliphant930]

The walk and talk, is a better format for you, Peter, you speak slower,. and better paced..❤

[@stephenbrickwood1602]

Much is changing 😮

[@johndamascus6039]

I've been following Mr. Zeihan for 6 years. He will entice you with his confidence and bold statements, and with good skills in presentation. However, nearly all of his predictions are incorrect and what's worse, he's clearly a shill for the 3 letter agencies. It really is that simple. I can list all of the incorrect predictions, but if you doubt it, just keep following him (at your peril).

[@freeheeler09]

Yogi Berra said “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.”

[@freeheeler09]

Peter knows that a significant fraction of his predictions will be wrong. But even the best batters in baseball only get on base a third of the time. I disagree with Peter’s predictions on agricultural productivity and resource shortages; I’m much more of a doomer. Peter is unique in having the courage to put himself out there. And the great value of his predictions is the serious conversations they start.

[@beatasol4447]

He started his career in Stratfor, company riddled by CIA, so he is just a frnt man for one of the fractions of deep state

[@bonkersblock]

You’re mistakenly assuming that his analysis is a prediction ? Mr, genius?

[@VancouverInvestor]

Clowns in America huh?

[@robertoliphant930]

On the Titanic there was an orchestra that played soothingmusic as the ship was sinking ...😮

[@unsungronin8093]

When was this interview recorded?

[@tonywilson4713]

YES EXACTLY and I have commented else where as a few others have. I know form his own channel that he's currently in Italy while the background for this shows he was at home in Colorado when this happened. The last time Peter did one of his own videos with that background was 5 months ago.

[@MetisStrategy]

We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

[@bobnuttall461]

A while ago.

[@Michael-zb6uw]

I just want to go back to 1980s

[@oferzeira8125]

Excellent conversation

[@MoparSmith1]

At 41:00 his analysis of Trump is that he has no attention span. How does someone have the #1 TV show for a decade, build high rises and prestigous golf courses all over the planet, and become President, have no attention span? I think Peter threw his genius card out the window on that one.

[@Ivory0102]

Good questions from a guy cued into the elites

[@roblangsdorf8758]

The correct name for the inflation act should have been "the inflation PRODUCTION act". Atleast in the short-term. Long-term some of it may produce retooling that could help our economy. But our long-term debt may bring us down before then.

[@charleswomack2166]

Peter is brilliant on China, but completely unaware of what has been happening here in the US Regarding immigration, the US has long standing legal immigration for the very best and brightest(top 1%). Ideally, we could accept the top 3%.

[@matth2377]

Part of the problem is that we don’t need the top 3%. We need people who are skilled in blue collar labor, and we need them faster than we can vet them. I’m not thrilled about letting tons of immigrants in, but perfect is not on the menu when it comes to solving immigration in the US.

[@henli-rw5dw]

I just don't see how anything he says will play out for China. Communists don't have to accomodate special interests, no gridlocks. The experts debate, and solution is rolled out. For example for demographics, they've already started paying couples to have children. Right now it's $4k for the 3rd kid in Guang Zho.

[@oats6452]

​@@brijac04Dude do you know who you're talking to? This is CharlesWomack2166. That's Charles-fucking-Womack, bro. He know his shiz.

[@TJ-vh2ps]

⁠@@oats6452Exactly! The 2166 in his name is because that’s the year he was born: he’s from the future! He knows what he’s talking about. 😂

[@Seicks]

I'm sorry, but I frankly fail to see how Peter Zeihan is brilliant on.China. He's predicted China's collapse half a dozen times, and China's still there...

[@user-ws2gn3wp4s]

Peter!

[@drofmurdtroll1801]

I think he's anti Trump

[@nosteinnogate7305]

Every rational human being is anti trump

[@rocknroll368]

Peter is anti-Trump. JD Vance made a good arguement for onshoring industry from China back to the USA. Our industries are cleaner. Our natural gas infrastructure has less leaks than Russia or China and thus has less carbon emissions. The democrats have been opposing Nuclear Power since at least the 1970's. That was their big chance to reduce carbon emissions "IF" that's so important. China is building coal fueled electrical power plants at a high pace. It was something like one coal plant per week. Coal is a reliable and low cost source of producing electricity. I don't think destroying coal plants in the USA will reduce the world's temperature. Its all a farce. It feels more like a communist plot to destroy western industries, their societies and their freedom.

[@whocares-f7w5g]

He said Biden in landslide? HAHAHAHAHA tells me what he knows lol

[@p.d.stanhope7088]

Well, the CCP's Third Plenum is coming up in the next week. We might get an idea on what Xi is thinking with the official releases from the state media and the various interpretations from the China watchers.

[@Jakob_DK]

31:14 the water in fuel is a mistranslation. Similar to gas in USA not running on a liquid fuel but on a gas, because it is usually called gas short for gasoline not for eg natural gas.

[@MarkGast]

So, what is the correct translation?

[@hoffrun]

I think this entire China discussion is " off ". Does Ziehan actually travel to China ?

[@lamkoiyeenkoiyeen4437]

He knows shits😂😢

[@Gemini73883]

Soon the world will move on!

[@holtcrowder]

This was obviously recorded a while back. Love Peters commentary, even when he gets it wrong , which is usually surrounding US politics. He is a self admittedly a leftist. Therefore he his political bias shines through. Leftist cannot help themselves when they are dealing with TDS. However I totally enjoy his commentary regardless. I have learned to filter his bias and glean insight post bias filtering. Good job Peter.

[@LoriNorwood-ew7xd]

I believe he considers himself a globalist. Not really what either party is offering at the moment. In so far as immigration is our superpower and “the greatest skills transfer” in history, the MAGA obsession with xenophobia is just counterproductive nonsense.

[@holtcrowder]

@@LoriNorwood-ew7xd You are probably correct. However, in my opinion all globalist are leftist. They want to control and oversee every aspect of our lives. They may be worst than just leftist.

[@josephagnello3603]

Agree with you completely!

[@azerko]

Agree in every stance. He began to get so wrong politics that I unsubscribed his channel...

[@ImAliveAndYouAreDead]

I wouldn't call him a Leftist. The rare political stances he voiced and his natural interest in global strategy makes him sound like a Nixonian Republican.

[@L.h314]

Ok. I understand. What we put in place instead.

[@signoresantinoburnett1169]

Peter has never been right about anything. One of the biggest grifters around.

[@laszlobeke7908]

Mr. Doom and Gloom

[@bobnuttall461]

As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany”etc at all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they are willing to give up to support having children, the more healthy a population becomes the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is an in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is very focused on China but fails to recognise that the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobia/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense what the analysis describes is China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but foreign ethnic labour and consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest we are all doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell l… it’s a fascinating era.

[@lowi0008]

Peter's great and I have tons of respect for him but the thing I never see acknowledged is that if his theory about Russia being dead-set on plugging/occupying land gaps to their motherland is incorrect then the entire raison d'etre for the supporting Ukraine to ever increasing degrees is completely invalidated and we're rushing hyper-aggressively into a conflict that has a very high likelihood of triggering the 90-minute nuclear war that permanently ends civilization and virtually all human life on earth. To me, that's an insane amount of confidence to put behind a course of action for which we only have our interpretation of historical analogs as evidence. When I consider this in context of how our government has been made a disaster of every conflict since Vietnam (perhaps with the exception of GW I), I'm not left with a great deal of confidence that they're operating with a great deal of competency or clarity in executing this conflict either. If it turns out that Ukraine is on par with Afghanistan (in terms of modeling and execution of the conflict) then we (i.e. the entire human race) is very likely in grave danger.

[@4Fixerdave]

The problem is old and the solution inevitable, although insane. When someone with access to nuclear weapons threatens to use them "unless..." then the only logical solution is to forcefully push back. No leader can get away with nuclear blackmail. Allowing that would inevitably lead to further blackmail by that leader or another. Eventually, the blackmail price will hit the point where an all-out nuclear exchange is inevitable. So, we might as well get it on now. This is the undeniable logic of MAD. Was the initial support for Ukraine wise? It's possible to debate that. But, we did and then Putin made veiled threats about nukes. That's it, it's done, we're in. If we back out, Putin, Kim, or the next one will do it again, and again, and again, until the world ends. Threatening nukes to gain some offensive advantage cannot be allowed to work, our survival depends on this. There is no longer any logical argument to be made for not supporting Ukraine such that it will not lose. Though, that will not stop all the arguments about how much support we might give for it to win. And yes, I also don't think the logic of "a defensible border" makes a lot of sense for invading Ukraine and that the 2022 prediction was just luck,. I think it was just Putin messing with Ukrainian politics, losing to Maidan, then annexing Crimea because he was worried about losing Sevastopol. Then, the Ukrainians cut off the water to Crimea and when (in 2022) the reservoirs were down to 7%, he had to either invade or evacuate the civilians... he chose wrong again. It's not always driven by demographics and geography. Sometimes, a lot of times, it all starts with a mistake that snowballs... there was an old lady that swallowed a fly.

[@superscopesix]

that US election prediction did not age well lol, but I'll still read his book

[@Jon1ya]

One sided view. Not providing true picture.

[@keithpeterson9560]

Question to you; Who would be the puppet master and who would be the puppet? I think there is no place in a 21st century world for imperialist dominant type thinking. If we can’t share what this life has to offer we will not make it as a species.

[@soundslight7754]

....they're not going to cross it this year" - how short lived

[@davidshelbourn1533]

Seems his dislike of Trump has clouded his election prediction. Yes, it could go either way, but a blowout?? He is on an island with that opinion. If he is right, he truly is a genius.

[@MarkGast]

I dunno, I would vote for a corpse before I would vote for Trump. The people that will make the actual difference are the Independents in the swing states. Peter gave his reasoning and probable outcome.

[@ericscott6864]

Wow got the Trump election wrong

[@TheProphet49]

Love Zeihan's work in general but his views on Trump aren't factual, it is the one place where he just goes off the rails and into his feelings. Even now, a month out, we can see how wrong he was about this to date.

[@senorsleepy2359]

I love Pete but he’s soooo politically bias when I comes to us politics it’s wild to see he just doesn’t seem like the type

[@glassman304]

Role/future of Africa and Mexico in your predictions?

[@JohnDoe-td3xx]

Cheap labor and mid lvl manufacturing, respectively And tequila!

[@bobnuttall461]

A very interesting question.

[@socket_error1000]

The issue with the Russian nuclear threat is that the weapons and their delivery systems are neglected. Russia has just not allocated the funds needed to maintain and keep their nuclear weapons operational. And with what little may have been directed for that, much of it would have been prime for embezzlement by the top brass who would see those systems as doomsday options at any rate. Russia has not modernized their delivery systems or updated their warhead electronics, targeting, or guidance and maneuvering systems. They are using 32+ year old weapons that have had zero maintenance or modernization. Even the USA has been scrambling to keep their missile delivery systems operational after rebuilding the minuteman missiles in the silos twice and they allocate $63 billion a year to maintain their nuclear weapons. Keep in mind that is as much as Russia has been spending on Defense for an entire year prior to the Russo/Ukraine war.

[@castle4610]

While probably true, we can't really even have one nuke successfully launch before the dominoes start falling

[@robertoliphant930]

Predicting human behavior is not an orphans' strong suit

[@davidwestwater2219]

Peter will never say anything bad about the military or nsa or cia.

[@Brockliy]

??? that’s not his job my guy

[@firefly9838]

They are evil... but they are necessary evil... and he knows that

[@CentauriSphere]

so what

[@Brockliy]

@@firefly9838 what does evil mean? do you honestly think every person working in these agencies are bad people? they’re everyday americans my god the conspiracy brain rot is insane

[@carloshour8263]

Can we get an "um" "ah" counter from the host 🙄

[@atanacioluna292]

China has huge waters wealth, and land fertility. They also have huge educational investment because education is sacred. They are way bigger than the US in Purchasing Power Parity. They are also wise beyond Western perspectives. So... stop cheering for their demise. I returen this week from 40 days there. China works well, their trains run at 120 to 150 MPH and on time. Their air is on time too. The streets are faster than ours to get you from point a to point b, including Shianghai.

[@freeheeler09]

China doesn’t have enough fertilizer or fuel or water or actually fertile farmland to feed itself. And, look at how much the climate crisis has hammered water supplies and agricultural production this year and last. China is living dangerously with its reliance on its massive food and fertilizer imports. Only a handful of countries in the world are still significant food exporters. And, food prices are rising because of increasing conflicts throughout the world, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, declining soil fertility, water availability and agricultural production and a rising world population. Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s most important agricultural countries, aren’t exporting as much food and fertilizer as they used to. China, India and many other countries will be seeing significant food shortages within the decade.

[@cardiac.larceny]

I'd love to hear Zeihans take on my idea, sending a "humanitarian aid" military mission (fuel, food, engineer support) to Kiev. US Military troops / advisors boots on the ground, but not for any direct force-on-force confrontation. I think it'd basically checkmate Putin, force Russia to accept there is no way for them to ever take Ukraine without a number of American casualties that would necessitate a direct war with all of NATO. Obviously, would never happen until after the election. Ideally, I think Biden should do it after the election, before his successor (Harris) takes office. (He can still do it, regardless of who wins.)

[@docpretender1]

Hope this one interests u. He's talking about more global issues.

[@noahway13]

Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.

[@freeheeler09]

Good points! And neoliberal capitalism has always been a Ponzi scheme. We humans have so far overdrawn the world’s resources and ecological capital that our resource and ecological deficits make the US debt look like a manageable problem. And the climate crisis, as the US Military calls it, is the big threat multiplier. Our economic and societal collapse is ensured.

[@josefernandez-hz4ep]

This man, is so deluded.

[@bellakrinkle9381]

Mental.😮

[@FLAC2023]

This guy is a total clown

[@aravinddnivara803]

Peter Zeihen is a genius in terms of historic data and future strategy. I just have one problem when it comes to his analysis. In all his predictions USA comes on top like in Hollywood movies. if only he comes out of this imaginative world with obsession for his country USA , he will see that world will be a more multilateral / multipolar / dynamic power shift prone system , where NO one country (USA) or one power concentration ( EU or NATO or five eyes) can say they are morally superior and use their dangerous power concentration to arm-twist a less powerful nation… we will see more and more countries collapsing economically in developing world while Islamists and leftists will ruin USA / UK/germany / France. All four of these countries don’t make enough babies and have to import humans like beef or chicken to run USA economy. The immigrants who come may not hate Russia like existing white Americans and new immigrants may also be not ready to fight USA a war or may not believe in USA maintaining its imaginary superpower status when most nations have woken up to USA s sanctions based diplomacy. USA can be a powerful force but it won’t be able to control the world any more…

[@waynegore5291]

Zeihan is lower version of Gordon Chang with worse and less education.

[@georgechang6299]

Couldn't agree more.

[@robertoliphant930]

While your leadership can be replaced by a doorstop, you will soon be room temperature😢

[@RubenCLeon]

He said, prior to the Trump/Biden debate, that Trump will lose as long as Biden doesn't die. He also said he could change his mind if Biden died. Does he now believe that Biden is politically dead?

[@markvargus6519]

He despises the Drumph (Trump). I think his hatred of Trump has definitely colored his analysis of the election. He just assumes that the majority of independents hate Trump as much as he does. Honestly, I have no way to figure out what's going to happen in this election.

[@VidaMace]

Why is it that Communism seems to the worst of life styles there is

[@pauljazzman408]

Very interesting but I echo the comment about when this interview was filmed? Surely there are questions about Biden now after recent poor interview. Maybe that doesn’t affect the election because he is better than the alternative. Interesting about Globalisation was ‘just to get the world on (the USA) our side’. So interesting about population decline, when I was at college we still thought overpopulation was a problem. Now it’s the lack of a young workforce that’s the problem, which many countries fix with immigration. But as Peter says integration can be a problem and I would say that unscrupulous politicians can use the backlash to get elected.

[@MetisStrategy]

We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

[@renesmit6774]

Ukraine 🇺🇦 has crossed the Russian border 🫢 & we are all still here 😊

[@thimkful]

Excellent job of ignoring warming, particularly wet bulb temperatures.

[@Memegorillavr]

I think what you're saying about inflation is wage inflation. Reducing wage inflation to deflate wages is a problem. This continues to be the source of inequality in this country. Don't tax to pay for things. Just deflate wages. Taxation requires cuts and guts. Both parties lack backbone. So I'll vote for the bat shit crazy until it's been addressed.

[@bobnuttall461]

Which country?

[@chrisperkins7331]

So you think reguler folks should not have pay rises? On the other hand if you are saying that people like Musk should have their income reduced then I would agee with you.

[@williamWaldmann]

Hard to believe Putin's Red Line when his nukes blow up at the launch pad.

[@hemlock40]

The only country US is immigration is Canada? That seems to leave out a lot.

[@aweimer95]

A lot of things happened in a month

[@Kukaboora]

“We need tens of millions people in front of us” ? This point is entirely made up for argument sake. Remember his argument just after the invasion of Ukraine, the disruption of fertilizer supply from Belarus could cause one billions of people from Africa and Southeast Asia to die of starvation. It never happened, fertilizers are in the glut right now, price of fertilizer is plummeting.