The End of the World Is Just the Beginning

[@AaronMCanada]

Every few weeks I search KZbin for any videos uploaded within the past week or so featuring Peter, hoping I can find an updated keynote like this one. Thank you so much for posting the video.

[@PRAR1966]

Same here - and its lead to some excellent channels that would've otherwise been hard to find.

[@Mr0rris0]

Man i saw a splice from some copy chan and knew it was new. Finally followed that crazy tie here to the big kahuna(sp?)

[@WellDressedCaveman]

He has his own channel

[@Mr0rris0]

@@WellDressedCaveman his chan is alright. Bunch of short vids being a blowhard on a mountain... kinda rubs me the wrong way anyway That show Yellowstone happened in the 80s to some families... It's coming for the texas triangle now.. Land grabs and such... initiatives trying to get laws on the books so big business can't just take everything or indirectly tilt land owners toward a loss has the least reception in East texas... They are banking on copperhead road style like some comanche Indians. Even if they did listen the first kind of protecting the farmer and rancher they would do would be cheering for Warren buffets son, big ag and the meat packers... uniparty got to ag dept farm bureau forest service cattlemen association brand inspectors and national sheriff's association... It's like sowells take on the Indians fighting eachother for access to the white man's guns.. we are gonna eat eachother for a dab of the elites money and grants. The conferences aren't there on his channel though Like this recent one on Oct 2 at burns and mcdonell best practices conference or something. Winter is coming.

[@justinisham4307]

Love Peter but y’all ever watched any of his videos from 10 years ago? Dude been making the same predictions since then and, as of now, most haven’t happened ie everything in China is “going away” 😂😂

[@user-gl9iz1bp1r]

"Not everything makes it to the other side." Being part of the aging out population - it is amazing all the knowledge and experience which is exiting the work force. Our society neither values that knowledge or experience, nor does it have a means of capturing that knowledge and experience. Good luck.

[@velvetfish1]

"Our society neither values that knowledge or experience, nor does it have a means of capturing that knowledge and experience. " Your comment does strike at the irony of a society that is at the same time investing madly in getting computers to become knowledgeable and think for us. Perhaps this say a lot more about how we regard are fellow citizens, whose knowledge and views are worth less to us than those of machines that can't actually think yet at all. I wrote my first computer program on punched cards, and have stayed on the "bleeding edge" of much software change, but have yet to meet a computer that did anything without software written by a human. Admittedly, smart people are working on this, but it's highly questionable if the results will yield what many expect, unless of course one is more interested in online scams of an every increasing variety. One of the big problems with capitalism is that every idea that can be sold, shouldn't be sold, yet the system is sufficiently dysfunctional to prevent it.

[@henriikkak2091]

Funny. I feel that society doesn't respect young people. There's a crisis of generational solidarity. Basically, I feel that Boomers want to take everything they made into grave with them. Good luck.

[@luminyam6145]

Not so sure about this. I am over retirement age, all my compatriots have retired and I am working with mostly 25 to 35 year olds (I am 69). They are so damned good. I am going to hate to leave them. The spirit is willing (I love the social atmosphere) but the flesh is weak and I want enough time to enjoy my grandchildren.

[@Sweethands4]

I value it, but it isn't taught effectively to the young. We live in an era where everyone's hiding what they know, playing a small scale sociopolitical game of poker without realizing that's all pointless... because they're on the Titanic. So no one misunderstands my intended meaning, that's a metaphor for civilization socioeconomically, not a metaphor for life itself.

[@Sakhmeov]

Jeez, this is like listening to the whole "moms watching their daughters come home with studs and shaved heads screaming at their brothers, turn conservative-voting after having been feminists for the last 20 years" thing again... This is what you invested in. I'm down further and harder in the RT chain than you guys, and you know what I see among us grunts? Stagnancy and resentment. A lot of skills and absolutely insane work ethic, 'cause it's those young guys. And a lot of ideas. And... absolutely no encouragement or spacing or push to get things through. Innovation death. Other than all the IOT tie-in stuff, by comparison to legit IT the hard end seems to have been a desert for the last couple of decades. And this when we suddenly are having energy problems, and logistics and automotion, talking broadly, is slowly and sneakily crapping itself? Connection, maybe? I'm totally along for the "internet of things should just die" line. As, I suspect, are all my colleagues. Emphasis on cleverer and more standalone rather than broader and more integrated design, more water torture for sales and procurers, and slash the damn organizational charts. You sound so... "prosocial" as the WEF would put it. And that is bad and wrong. To me, it sounds fundamentally against the ethos of engineering. Because it's against the KISS Principle. And I will argue that it produces ethics which emergently lead to crises. There's a whole book about it I can recommend; "The Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joseph Tainter Dr.An., 1988, ISBN9780521340922. You all may be lovely fellows. But I've been screwed over and had to shut my own business down a couple of years ago because of people relying on "prosociality" rather than hard reads. And like so many guys out of my generation, I've grown up under the broad-sweep attack on trait Disagreeableness and out-of-the-box thinking. With neglect and non-reciprocality and personal injury and divorced parents and fuzzy-Lefty teachers. So I am past the point where I frankly don't much care anymore. So yeah, I'll play poker with you. Tight and very, very aggressive. Maybe you'll take the wrong lesson and just say "These damn yung'ns," but if you're smart you'll learn the real lesson, which is that nothing works on trust any longer, because it's been so long abused. That's my major quibble with Peter too, even though I know enough to see he's a smart guy and understand how his analysis is broadly on point; His whole "demography is destiny" line doesn't work out, because it's not the final CE function, not the final step. You can have as many people as you like as a base; If your cultural multiplier, your encouragement of innovation and effectivization, is still basically zero or negative... Even if some crap will stick to the wall due to the sheer volume you throw, the fundamental inefficiency of that crap-throwing process still is Darwin, not Bayes. Still turns out below what's required to advance civilization. And without advance, no TFP increase. Meaning, no reason for people to leave their house in the morning. Meaning, either endless inflation or economic Ice Age, and racking up the instances and chances until something clicks and you generate another bubble, another pandemic, another crisis. Do this enough times and the civilizational ratchet jumps, and then you typically lose several steps in one go. For those of us who still have time to while out, you see how that future doesn't look pleasant?

[@johnasonharris2853]

I am old enough to remember that when it comes to predictions based on the current events, foresight always becomes a victim to hindsight.

[@frankprit3320]

yea the "Wild Card" is always a problem no one sees coming.

[@blac1819]

Yall old people seen this song & dance a few more times then the rest. I appreciate the comment b/c hindsights been replaced with propaganda or hubris. China is done? 2020 showed we rely on them for most essentials, like masks. Worked on drilling rigs since i was 18. Russia was drillin "impossible" wells 20 years ago. We taught em. "You cant drill through mud" 😂😂 Any experts in other fields mentioned care to chime in on the accuracy of his statements?

[@richardlawson6787]

In the early seventies the leading theory was an ice age was coming fast

[@WallaceDunn]

The so-called "experts" are often flat-out wrong.

[@velvetfish1]

@@richardlawson6787 You are evidently listening to sources that have left you uninformed. While such "theories" (hypotheses actually) appeared in the popular press, they were never taken seriously by the bulk of the scientific community. There is actually a peer-reviewed research paper on the myth you are propagating, I would send it to you, but for the moment I can't remember where I placed the PDF or if I even saved it. It was written about 2-5 years ago as I recall.

[@chorgzent.3978]

Peter: "the internet of things shuld just die" *projector freezes

[@gwenburge5583]

Yes things r changing. Karma is coming first. U all talk about everything but what u owe the black race. U need to be talking about Reparatiins for black ppl. Things will not get better until we do better stop lying about what u have done to this country.

[@chorgzent.3978]

@gwenburge5583 This country needs to publicly acknowledge the blood of the lamb before every valley is lifted up and mountain laid low like that... the coming leader will take his evil throne before that. Our reward is great if we believe

[@velvetfish1]

@@chorgzent.3978 Really? You are going to run world economies on lamb's blood? Seriously?

[@Reblwitoutacause]

reparations for blacks should start from Africa, and the Africans who sold the other tribes to the Europeans as slaves.

[@danielsmithiv1279]

@@chorgzent.3978 facts

[@tombouie]

Thks Burns & McDonnell for sharing with the reqular/plain folks; I wish the rest of corporates/businesses around the-world would learn to follow your lead ;) PS: Great tie MrZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[@thomastessier4529]

"The end of the world is just the beginning". Love this statement and it is so true. Another headline I saw that I loved is: "The wold isn't falling apart, it is falling into place".

[@Skunk106]

The book is great!

[@velvetfish1]

The title seems about right, but the cause has largely been avoided in all the prognostication. The consequences of accelerating global was only barely touched upon when discussing Russian energy extraction. The much larger effects that are worldwide in scope don't seem to have entered into the equation, but that doesn't mean we are rapidly approaching lethal wet bulb temperatures and the loss of agriculture and fisheries that will take place over the next two to three decades. As a biologist, the talk, while entertaining and interesting, sounded much like the dinosaurs predicting continued global domination.

[@Skunk106]

@@velvetfish1 This talk really doesn't do the book justice, but you are correct to an extent. This one was largely geared toward business and commerce. Peter doesn't indulge in doomerism even while he's predicting doom. If it seems like more world domination it's because it's what we have and it is what we will apparently continue to have. I def dont see Peter as an eco warrior. He calls himself green. I'd put a cap P, for pragmatism in front of it. I like Nate Hagen and his guests collectively for deeper ecological aspects and possible solutions. Please check him out if you don't know of him! I try to spread the word about him.

[@solarnaut]

@thomastessier I've heard that expression applied to one's life : " I thought my life was falling apart; I came to realize it was falling together. " HOPE (not blind optimism) seems almost as fundamental to a healthy life as oxygen Alan Watts, speaking on “The Cycle of Life & The Meaning of Death" argues for the balance of acceptance & action. "LIBERATION is the realization there is no way that things are 'supposed to be.' ... that it 'has to happen,' but...if you want to feel like there is some way you would like to arrange this... pushing these things around ... and put them in some kind of an order... that's okay too. ... you will be miserable to the degree that you are hung up on... 'things should/ must go a certain way'.... 'fixed view'... [ instead,] remain elastic! ... the lively empty mind.. can either let it alone or project patterns... and especially do both... at the same time... project... but realize ... human life never makes an aesthetic mistake ..."

[@katarinahinsey3931]

The title is a bit click-baity, maybe unintentionally. It's what brought me here, so that's ok because there's a lot to think about here and it's better than the usual gloom and doom predictions.

[@xsommer8558]

America has plenty of labor if all of the profits are not funneled off and given to hedge funds. If the Middleclass get a larger share of the profits then we may also see a more enfranchised citizenry and lower amounts of substance abuse.

[@ruthcrites]

For now maybe but we are aging out a skilled labourforce

[@djimiwreybigsby5263]

​@@ruthcritestoo bad Americans are so perseverative regarding the requirements of a college degree when it's clear we need trade schools and a loosening of the NAFTA grip (Thanks, Clinton)

[@-whackd]

America has plenty of people on disability or who are retired. The percentage of people in the labour force is historically low compared to the past, and it will continue going that way.

[@matildamarmaduke1096]

​@@-whackd Being retired ain't dead and the disabled need to do what they can instead of being dead weight entitled to nothing they haven't earned they can work and should be encouraged too. Not given a free ride and a check equal to a retired mother who spent her young life having & raising children entering the work force at 40ish or the waitress who to this day make $2.30 a hour to make someone else's day more tolerable.

[@richardlawson6787]

Here's a sobering fact about capitalism..four percent of americans own 90 percent of all the wealth.

[@reprogrammingmind]

Fantastic info and clearly explained. Thank you for sharing

[@andrewdavis6917]

Absolutely a fantastic presentation. Watchin this at home on the big tv upstairs on a Saturday. Very glad to have found this... thanks for putting this up.

[@finianlacy8827]

Wanna start a Corp. ?? Money 2 b made 😊

[@billsayer1]

He is great entertainment but that’s all! Sadly he’s gone from a great analyst to a story teller to get paid a lot more!

[@rositasultana3958]

One of the most exhaustive, yet concise presentations that I ever saw. Good work, guys!

[@ConorKenny_helpline1]

Thank you

[@tonyfaulknor8273]

2:27 Who is this WEF shill?

[@movement2contact]

​@@tonyfaulknor8273who is this WEF conspiracy clown?

[@velvetfish1]

Surely, a most engaging presentation. However, without taking into account rapid climate change, the prognostications leave a lot unsaid and uncertain. Speaker is highly intelligent and is appealing to an audience that wants to know what may come next. Failing to discuss climate change, which is already starting to seriously affect demographics in a spatially inhomogeneous way really falls short and shortchanges his audience. Would like to see these incorporated into his presentation. It's not as if there isn't now abundant data to draw upon. There are now even entire scientific journals being published on the subject for obvious reasons.

[@davidschalit907]

​@@velvetfish1 You're trying to fit your beliefs into his predictions.

[@lourdesmayorga4592]

Excellent content! I like Peter’s presentations on wold’s geo-economic-political presentations. The visual aids are great. Thank you for posting this video.

[@billsayer1]

Too bad he exaggerates everything so his audience like what they hear so he gets hired to give expensive talks and sell bunk books that are totally exaggerated!

[@GeoScorpion]

Two things that just blow my mind: (1) When we 'buy' land, we own it and it gets passed down in perpetuity to our heirs. In China, the don't 'own' land, they are leasing it from a developer, who has leased lt from the government for 70 years. Therefore, every year, the land and the condo unit should be depreciating and not appreciating. (2) Over-production should have created a depreciation in price a decade ago. It hasn't until the beginning of this year.

[@ruthcrites]

I didn't know that. It makes sense

[@QuonWill]

Agreed. However, the land itself would only depreciate on the books of the developer & Land lessee. Regarding the land, I would imagine on Year 70 there is a bid in which Domestic developers compete for the lease which inflates the market value of the land due to the long-term duration and guarantee of the CCP. 2. It’s a scam economy that ultimately excels from western financial and domestic markets. In China there is high production with low volume of demand, so you can find sights such as; landfills with abandoned Electric vehicles fresh out of the factory and as mentioned in the video, ghost towns in areas less densely populated. China has been the biggest scam for over a decade now.

[@GeoScorpion]

@@QuonWill To be honest, nobody really knows what happened after the 70 years is up because no residential highrise has lasted that long before falling down or being knocked down. There's literally no plan on what happens afterward.

[@QuonWill]

@@GeoScorpion Great Point and it is probable that the CCP will completely change their economic structure by the time or prior to land lease expiration. Interesting cases to follow.

[@righteousmammon9011]

Is it really any different in America? 1.5% a year property tax means you buy your property over roughly the same time

[@pbkobold]

The talk was given on Tuesday Oct 3, 2023 according to the website.

[@larrykillman7944]

Biden by a landslide yah right.....B S

[@MrJosedaluz]

This is a great presentation of suppositions.

[@ee.kv2022]

he spills so many beans, but what are the sources? I can't help but suspect he just makes some (or most of) stuff up. Would love to see a critical review with sources..

[@contactluke80]

What was said about the German mortgage system at 27:30 was simply not true. PZ needs fact checking on a lot of his statements I find.

[@attilaann9421]

What is the truth regarding the German mortgage system? I found his comments interesting but don't have German contacts to verify Peter Zeihan's comment about depositing the estimated mortgage payment for 5 years before qualifying for a home loan.

[@lennartvonblottnitz2977]

😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮

[@lennartvonblottnitz2977]

.,, 😂

[@lennartvonblottnitz2977]

BSBSBSBS

[@AquilaUng]

This guys is simply entertainment. They could have just hired a comedian because this entertainer is just playing to an audience, telling stories with some color slides of "facts" and then stoking their biases and stroking their egos.

[@milkmaid4077]

Every time I finish a different program and am busy washing dishes or something where my hands are busy this video comes up and I'm stuck with it until I can get clear... I believe this is the 20th time YT has made me listen to it. And yes, I listened all the way through twice and even used clips ia a podcast I share with others. Wonder what I'm supposed to learn. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@mowthpeece1]

How to stop a video on KZbin with your pinky.

[@benlong3016]

What happened to the 🤖 that was supposed to be taking everyone's job!!! He doesn't really make sense to me, so I think he has a political hack of some kind!🤔🤭

[@hideousmorbideous9249]

WOW - how many dishes do you have ? . . . .*.*.*,

[@gwebocelestron9194]

Hahaha. Same thing happens to me, except the video YT wants to constantly auto feed to me is The Fall of the Sumarians. I wonder if the two are related? The end of the first civilization and the end of the last civilization?

[@billsayer1]

The more I listen the more amazed I am at Peter’s skill in spin and exaggeration to serve his narrative based on what his audience wants to hear. Great story, but his story, not history or the future!

[@WhosoeverBelieveth]

@billsayer1, But God... 🌏🙏🕛

[@joeyjojoshabadoo889]

That's how you sell books and get paid for appearances. Tell your target market what they want to hear.

[@velvetfish1]

@@joeyjojoshabadoo889 The problem humanity and its economies face is how to tell people what they don't want to hear but need to hear in order to save themselves from themselves. The reality is that accelerating global warming is something they need to be aware of and failing to believe it's happening or attempting to ignore it is highly counterproductive, both to them and everything humans hold dear.

[@Time4Peace]

He's full of unsupported sweeping statements delivered with the confidence of a maverick, and with a lot of built-in bias.

[@denovo62]

Thanks for saying!!! His interpretation of China was totally off-based.

[@MikeJohns-c2c]

Factually incorrect about the Australian property market. The Aus government guaranteed deposits (so there would not be a run on the banks), not mortgages- that would be ludicrous!

[@AquilaUng]

Nobody fact checks a comedian, and that's essentially what this guy is. An entertainer.

[@sidequestsally]

thank you for making this public

[@lanearquette7537]

You the man Peter! So glad we have someone like him on our side! Thx for the insight!

[@GrantLeeEdwards]

21:50 As a progressive I’m no fan of Obama. He’s arrogant & overconfident - a soulless neoliberal. But Peter often tells this story about Obama announcing that he’s smarter than everyone in the room. Anyone believe this? No source cited, & it sounds ludicrous. Not important RE: Obama, but one of several data points that remind me to take Peter’s views with a healthy dose of skepticism.

[@GODHATESADOPTION]

He is my 16th cousin and most of my family on his mothers side Ann Dunham whos white, hes only half evil, are actually mostly all genius level of 130 or 140 and up... so...

[@tonyc223]

Obama is a construct of the D.N.C. picked off the street of Chicago.

[@AquilaUng]

That was the moment that I realized he is just an entertainer pandering to the biases of his audience.

[@MarkCox21125150]

Ya, feel the same. Also the bit about the inside of chinese politics regarding Xi. How would he know "no one brings him information"

[@thomasmcguire951]

I think I may have new terms to describe both Zaihan and his methodology: datatainer, datatainment

[@RamakrishnaR-y9v]

I keep hearing a lot of audiobooks. But today i am amazed at this speech and the depth of knowledge this speaker has.

[@oarfish12]

The workforce needed today compared with even 20 years ago is a fraction and shrinking due to the automation, robotics and AI. Productivity is skyrocketing, makes all previous models obsolete.

[@MichaelLee-r6h]

The Pony Tail tells you all you need to know.

[@luminyam6145]

Peter is such an excellent public speaker. His ideas are fascinating.

[@AquilaUng]

His lies are very entertaining.

[@KW-jq5je]

A lot of very insightful info and new ways of seeing things, and a lot of info that (for now) seems unlikely or inaccurate. I'll continue researching his underlying reasoning. It's always good to get differing opinions on complex matters. Most appreciated.

[@denovo62]

I agree. I’ll take the info as a unique perspective but def question much of his interpretation.

[@Ifinishedyoutube]

I had to search for this. The algorithm didn't give it to me. This is unsettling.

[@grzegorzkapica7930]

These talks are poetry. Annoys know, how to work with this guy? I would probably just love it. Apart of the pain coming from the foresight.

[@DirkKotze-q7x]

For a person that regularly comments on Xi Jinping, it's astounding that he still mispronounces his surname...

[@lauriegriffin1835]

And I should care about the mispronounciation because why? Oh that's right...I couldn't care less.

[@matildamarmaduke1096]

Ok let me pronounce it right DIOBOLICAL EVIL

[@Sparklfoot]

And the beginning of the world? The spark in our parents eye. Nothing’s changed.

[@philtimmons722]

Thanks Burns&Mac for putting this on. As typical Peter, some good, some BS. (At 1:04:00) Was funny Peter 'splaining to a room full of Power Engineers that: 1. Copper is some critical future shortage -- because Peter does not know the Grid runs on Aluminum. 2. Cobalt from Congo is some problem -- because Peter does not know that EVs are moving onto LiFePO4 (no Cobalt) while the bigger Cobalt users are Steel (as in ICEs) and Oil Refinery. 3. Copper -- Same on Solar PV -- conductors are Aluminum. 4. "Rare Earths" are somehow critical -- when if you are using Silicon Solar PV and AC Drive Motors -- none are required. But what Peter often lacks in competence, he always more than makes up for with "confidence." Always entertaining. Thanks again.

[@davidrowewtl6811]

I love listening to Peter's certainty. It's a good fine performance as well as a reasonable stab in the dark as to the way the world goes.

[@jennynormoyle9724]

I have not seen this man previously and hope to never again. Of course, USA is the greatest country with the greatest people. Listen to him denigrate every other country of the world. Propaganda and lies all the way through

[@philtimmons722]

What he may like in Competence, he always tries to cover with "Confidence." Always amusing.

[@AquilaUng]

Pure performance. They may as well have hired a stand up comic or a juggler and gotten as much facts out of it.

[@sanfords]

I am amazed you're not talking more about robotics and AI which will change all your projections extremely significantly.

[@garyzies3486]

Yes, that's what I was waiting for as well.

[@vsanden]

Somehow the answer that there are not enough chips to roll out the high AI thinking into operational robots, we we as humans should be the ones doing what this system is saying. The question is how much more efficient and effective large scale stuff can be without the robot arms.

[@davidotness6199]

Because he's on the side of the Owners of the world who want us to believe we 'need' all of these illegal aliens encroaching on our country, our constitution, and our way of life.

[@IM.C311]

I miss a two thumbs-up option here... because one thumbs-up is not enough. Excellent!

[@netizencapet]

The one argument he makes which is hard to dispute is the near inevitable collapse of the Chinese housing market and its devastating effect on household income and hence consumption levels. I think that's not the end of the Chinese story, but it is a horrible blow I wish they could avoid.

[@henriikkak2091]

How this will affect the rest of the world is unclear. The US crisis became a global financial crisis

[@bgiv2010]

"With globalization, you can leave the farm and work in the city." Only because the private enclosure of land and capital flows into cities have destroyed nature to the point where urban living seems preferable. It's not like rural life is naturally or inherently undesirable. Urbanization was not a free choice.

[@-whackd]

What do you mean capital flowing into cities destroys nature? If I am a rural Indian farmer thinking about giving up farming for a manufacturing job in the city, how are capital inflows to a city "destroying nature" in my village?

[@phelixtaylor4973]

No it doesn't, 90% of uninhabited land in America is the exact same healthy nature that has existed for 1000s of yrs. I've never even heard of someone being forced to move to the city because nature in the American countryside has become toxic.

[@CraigFranklinmusic]

Very interesting speaker. Very general comments. It will be interesting to see how many of the speculations come true. Some are very far off in time. We can revisit this a year from now after the 2024 US election and see if his prediction that Biden will win in a landslide and Trump will win maybe 12 states. What do you think?

[@donaglosser4272]

How can a person who wears a diaper win

[@patverbiest7983]

T. will only win at a total new angle, from all that he saw and learned from being MR. PRESIDENT, of the past. he is someone who believes in this great nation as well as country of people whom love its country. everyone hang on, for its going to become the worse roller coaster ride you've experienced.

[@SpodyOdy]

Are there any experts that disagree with the outlook of China shown in this presentation?

[@chefdave6596]

Wow. Really glad this showed up in my algo. Great presentation. Thorough and really gets the thoughts projecting. Excellent

[@cruxdraloor8950]

Big fan of Peter, but I think his greatest blindspot is his domestic political analysis. I'm not a Trump fan, but if there's one thing polling data has revealed throughout its entire history, it's that voters are idiosyncratic and don't fall neatly into interest groups moving around like chess pieces. This is why reliably predicting election results is so hard. The GOP underpeformance in 2022 is attributable almost entirely to Dobbs, but it's unclear to what extent that political energy has evaporated and Trump has taken a strong stance against hardline pro-lifers. To claim that he will only win 12 states when he's currently ahead in the polls is deeply shortsighted. Idk who will win in 2024 but I expect it will be a very weird race, and to pretend it will be so one-sided because "independents" (a group no one is able to get a good read on) have some universal aversion to one side or another is to make the same mistake all the pollsters made in 2016. No matter who wins, I predict it will be close and I doubt we will be able to interpret the results according to some mechanistic interest group realignment.

[@peredavi]

Trump needs to go away. Can’t happen soon enough in order to give a reasonable Republican a chance. Probably Haley. Trump is an awful choice. Narcissistic. Corrupt.

[@josephagnello3603]

I agree completely.

[@ehlava]

Thats what makes it a such a great prediction. It is clear, and it has a definite timeline. I would argue it won't go down to Trump and Biden, but we'll see. RFK keeps trending up regardless of the media smear campaign. Haley getting money flow right now. Dean Phillips could be a smart Dem pivot. I agree with Peter, though. Few of my conservative friends and family like Trump anymore, and some never liked him at all. We will know soon enough.

[@Andrew-ww7qq]

Peter produces brilliant analysis but he has his political bias ...which is odd because its difficult to understand how someone can be so deeply analytical and yet prefer to see a Biden administration over a Republican led one.

[@ehlava]

Maybe not a Republican one, a Trump one. Trump a 3rd rail now. I see Peter as a Bush style Republican. Oil, foreign wars, debt, domestic peace.@@Andrew-ww7qq

[@virginiagravlin8747]

A Zeiban lecture is worth a semester's course at an Ivy league business school.

[@AquilaUng]

I would say more like a night at the Laugh Factory.

[@cheryllewis8791]

How does he square the end of the green transition and the end of the Republican party? Who’s going to end it if not the republicans? The Democrats literally run on the green transition.

[@UnkoHoloHolo]

Boldly presented, well done, Bravo...

[@caw7007]

I love that Burns & Mac has such interesting forums. Bravo! ♥️💛♥️

[@theresaowen2708]

Zeihan's demographics are enlightening. His politics are shortsighted and biased.

[@geoffreylacher8891]

I'm not looking to be argumentative, but can you explain your statement?

[@theresaowen2708]

​@@geoffreylacher8891His ego and clearly left bias throws a growing shadow over the facts he presents. ESG, for example, being picked up by different companies and handled differently? No, ESG has been forced on companies by the FederalReserve, tied to monetary credit. The vast majority of employees find these ESG requirements a waste of time and cut into profit. Very few people actually give a shit about such made up victimization. As for Biden winning by a landslide ... ridiculous. Like him or not, drive across America and you will see Trump signs and flags by the thousands. He fills stadiums with supporters. When Biden shows up to an event, no one even wants to talk to him.

[@georgepotter9621]

Shortsighted and biased how? Explain!

[@AliceinWonderlandzz]

Well that'll keep you up till midnight on New Year's Eve. Other than skating on the knife edge of Armageddon I find Peter's prophetic work to be chillingly spot on. We have reached a catalytic inflection point that will not resolve until it plays out. One factor that I think Peter is not adjusting for properly is technological disruption - that is out of his wheelhouse. His example of textiles is a good one. If we can automate a 100 Bangladeshi worker factory into a two worker automated facility in North Carolina - we will see that trend mature in the reshoring of manufacturing and the labor shortage will be far less inflationary than expected. I would expect manufacturing to become far more localized with simplified production chains. If we can keep our fingers off the red button it could be transformational for humanity.

[@happyhappynuts]

100%. Look at Tesla with 48v powered control circuitry, massively reduced the cabling and therefore copper use. The world will not run out of copper

[@bucketiii7581]

Who's we? I don't have a button. Maybe we should take the buttons away from the people who have them?

[@12235117657598502586]

Biden’s gonna win 2024??! 😬🤔

[@thenarrowpathoftruth9443]

You write well. Perhaps you should do much more of it. Phrases like "catalytic inflection point" ring in my ears like music.

[@pn2543]

@1:25:00 - 'China's almost over, Russia has at least another decade or two'

[@KevinB-pd3me]

It's amazing that Zeihan can discuss US and Mexican demographics at length, but seems unaware of the 8 million or so who have crossed the southern border into the US in the last 3 years.

[@JimStraughan]

Also the millions of under or unemployed in mid west USA ?

[@velvetfish1]

Very few of the climate migrants are Mexican. They come from tropical parts of South America for the most part, who are escaping the consequences of global warming, which is unraveling societies and which the GOP is determined to accelerate. A greater percentage on the migrants are coming from China, who are escaping autocracy in China. These are precisely the people we need to counter China's increasing hegemony around the globe as America's influence diminishes, locking us out of both markets and access to raw materials worldwide Ironically, the GOP policy is to deny these asylum seekers entry, thereby making China stronger. It's a shame that people can't see far ahead enough to recognize they are busy making things worse for themselves, not to mention nearly everyone else.

[@RawandCookedVegan]

He has talked about it before and the fact that Trump's wall led to the building of roads which now make illegal immigration easier into the US.

[@KevinB-pd3me]

@RawandCookedVegan Puhleez. Roads that lead to a place in the border where there's no wall, because current occupant refuses to finish building it... and even removes fences that the states put up.

[@RawandCookedVegan]

@@KevinB-pd3me Your emperor with no clothes didn't finish it and Mexico didn't pay for it. Wake up.

[@TedGriffiths-d1u]

This is extremely interesting....l think it's one of the most provoking podcasts l have ever seen

[@TheRealBeady]

He forgot about RTP (Raleigh Triangle) for the south, cheap land lots of youth and lots of educated people with infrastructure + capital

[@MichaelWilliamsWMA]

I'm always Leary of Futurist like Peter, the man bun doesn't bolster my confidence. Having watched over 10 of his presentation, I can see how his talks will lead his clients to make missteps and invest & build his predictions. Take the mic from him and give it to Prof Victor Hanson or Thomas Sowell. All his points where expounded in a book over 30 yrs ago The Great Reckoning aka The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson , Lord William Rees-Mogg

[@JOHNDANIEL1]

I liked the guys basics till he crapped the bed on himself. He calls all the people who are pushing to save kids, have more kids, and keep society law abiding as Nazis. All the while crying about the loss of children as a catastrophe. What a fool.

[@Davidipac]

The trajectory is fascinating, but the dilemma is that a cataclysmic world war will destroy every path.

[@facethesky1066]

You didn't calculate one thing... all the immigrants to usa... and the extreme amount of Chinese to USA is massive. Bidey administration is taking to themselves 20 to 35 yr olds of all demographics. 40 million.

[@truepan593]

One thing/truth l have learned in 80 years is ‘we cannot see around corners’ neither can scientists.

[@joem5392]

" The only immutable law of economics is that supply will always rise to meet demand." MF The lead time for power transformers in the US is already down to 18-20 weeks.

[@joeroberts453]

Regarding Chat GPT- "with Chat GPT, 'all' we need are the chips".. . Agree with him, insofar as that single statement goes (except that there will be a chip shortage for the next 2-3 years before the factories catch up). The main problems with AI are that we will require massive GPU running and massive grid power to serve it- "The revolution in artificial intelligence may soon require more electricity than all electric vehicles combined" [source: WSJ, 12/15/23]

[@Shadowcat1954]

And our grid already can not keep up.

[@chrisjones-rd8it]

good one

[@MrZeissOne]

Thank you so much for realizing that I am not actually an adult, and that my childlike sensibilities are so much at risk of damage from Mr. Ziehan's potty mouth.

[@fritzeder1847]

Aged to 70+ I witnessed many times: Predictions have been wrong all the time. Example Europe: People in working much longer as work gets easier.

[@midnightwatchman1]

I disagree with him about the business community being the "adults in the room" . why is the business community more interested in trans rights than making a profit. Disney is made several flops and they are good with that.

[@taiwanjohn]

@1:32:00 -- _"Trump will probably carry no more than twelve states..."_ That's a heckuva prediction, Peter! LOL! I guess we'll find out in good time. ;-)

[@dwightdancy5163]

Hmmm... I don't agree with Peter on that one.

[@John14Six-r8e]

This reminds me of Harry Dent's demographic forecasts back in the 70's. He was very accurate.

[@389293912]

We've also never had so many jobs that are work at home, enjoyable and doable by people up to age 80 so that capital isnt necessarily retired.

[@GeoScorpion]

If only fabrication could be done at home by 80-year-olds, or maybe hire retirees to teach kids in juvenile detention how to machine-tool things.

[@-whackd]

Capital doesn't retire dude. Labour does.

[@catherinedevere-burt2890]

AMAZING, Great to hear a logical educated view on what's happening. Where does Schwab the WEF, WHO, & Gates the eugenic fit into all this?

[@michaelsuter4523]

They are playing their part in decreasing the population and to get the rest of the people that survive to go along with what is written in the Bible. They are following the instructions of the Georgia Guidestones which seems to be the 10 commandments of the dark lord. If you want to know more please check out Dr. John Campbell on how the who organization is trying to control everyone's rights.

[@matildamarmaduke1096]

What happened to the reply it says it had to 🐂 💩

[@andrewbrewer7702]

A Biden win, and the Jury is out on ESG's, which is the NWO playbook for disaster.

[@SS-ec2tu]

Every time he makes a crack about Trump, I understand the man bun.

[@AquilaUng]

But I bet that you lapped up his ridiculous story about Obama without any question. Do you seriously believe that Obama told his generals "I am the smartest man in this room and I can do any of your jobs?"

[@philperdion7566]

That's one reason the unemployment rate seems so low is because millions of workers are leaving the workforce(retiring) and are not counted as unemployed.

[@DaRkHoRsE-_-]

To overthrow the one percent… we must quit feeding into their pockets. All stop work for awhile. Love to see what they would do. ??!!😂

[@hikerJohn]

Is Peter Zeihan in a think tank so he can bounce ideas of his peers or is he totally independent?

[@-whackd]

Stupid people listen to Peter frequently make calls on commodities and they don't hold him accountable, nor does he ever publicly invest based on the stuff he says. It's all a game to him and his audience doesn't even care if he's right. He could have a record like Jim Kramer but none of his audience cares. They watch him as a form of therapy when they are geopolitics addicted.

[@dorisdanielsen3296]

My understanding is that he has a whole team that does research and they collate the information together.

[@AquilaUng]

He left the think tank and has been rehashing the same old ideas about transport routes and demographic shifts for the past 10 years. Nothing new.

[@kevincesarsozeparas9404]

1:19:50 🌟TAIWAN QUESTION🌟 😃❕🌟GOOD QUESTION❕🌟

[@caseyrowe7580]

How does the the expected AI boom over the next few decades affect the population and consumption declines?

[@mdkumarz]

AI does consume but humans do.

[@patverbiest7983]

few will be allowed to bare children. remember china?

[@sacgrp1007]

Interesting talk. Seems a bit biased in a few areas. Plus, solar panels are about generating from the sun, not heat. Another p.s. is that necessity is the mother of invention, SO, inventing more energy efficient equipment rather than digging up more raw ingredients from the earth, seems to be in order. And, how about retooling and recycling more waste products from production?

[@russellesimonetta9071]

Uhh, trucks aren,t going away. Everything you have in your house from toothpaste, bedware, beds, couches, steaks ,eggs everything comes from trucks. Everything!

[@-whackd]

Sure, but logistics will be automated. Automated trucking, automated warehouses, even automated last mile delivery (for much cheaper).

[@henryrambeau2460]

I love this guy

[@davidrowewtl6811]

But what about humanoid robots filling the labour gaps?

[@CandidDate]

If you don't know, then at least sound like you know. Peter is this.

[@theoldtimefiddler]

Nothing but panic porn...Rush Limbaugh had a great saying..."Every Generation is absolutely convinced that the world is going to end on their watch"

[@bpb5541]

Damn you could get hit in the face with a board and say the board never existed.

[@persperspersp2866]

panic porn in what sense.... all he argues is that societies are aging out of consumption based growth and that for most of them, this is going to lead to economic stagnation. the US will be fine...

[@bpb5541]

@@persperspersp2866 I sure do hope you are correct. The whole system is based on debt. The actual value of collateral is halving (look at commercial real estate), once Yellen stops doing her stealth liquidity (failed Treasury auctions so its not gonna be her choice), there will be a liquidity issue, and credit levels for everyone are at all time highs, wages haven't kept up with price increases for 40 years. Not to mention the dumpster fire that is American politics, and the widening of class inequity. what could go wrong? My personal opinion is that we are witnessing the fall of a great empire. It's just a slow burn.

[@peredavi]

46:15. Zeihan alludes to us auto manufacturers sending partially built car from one factory to another, in different cities for different parts of manufacturing. Ahhhj…..No. of course all parts brought in and assembly line setup puts it together. BOEING has fuselages built in Kansas and they DO go on train cars, right past Billings Montana for aircraft assembly in Renton Wa.

[@danielash1704]

The retraced prospective is the best thing to do

[@velvetfish1]

After watching the video last night, I posted a comment that apparently appeared briefly, but has now apparently been removed, which suggests there may be a hidden agenda here. I found the presentation both interesting, thought provoking and entertaining. However, lost in all thee prognostication was the clear fact that the role of rapidly accelerating global warming is largely entirely absent in the presentation, except for a tangential mention with respect to pingos making fossil fuel extraction in Russia. Virtually all the prognostications presented, even if presented in a most engaging way, fail to address how economies are about to be differentially impacted by rapidly accelerating global warming. Consequently, as a biologist I would argue that the presentation does a disservice to the business community. The reality is that we are now only a few decades away from terrestrial and oceanic temperatures that will have major adverse impacts on both agriculture and fisheries worldwide. Indeed, we are already seeing major ecosystem crashes and wet-bulb temperatures in many areas of planet reaching those lethal to humans. As a result, from the perspective of a biologist, the talk was in many respects like listening to a dinosaur prognosticating about the future domination of the planet. Admittedly, many dinosaurs did survive extinction because they could fly and we now call them birds. However, this doesn't in any way lessen the impacts rapidly accelerating global warming will have on world economies. I would look forward to a more realistic and honest assessment of what the future holds for our economy, not to mention our survival. I'll be watching to see if this second posting, which I had hoped might elicit intellectually honest discussion is also removed.

[@evanblaylock2750]

I think that everything you said is true and valid and I argue that he would have a very interesting conversation with you and share a lot of your doomerish views they lineup with his regression in tech. That being said, from very obvious context clues this is at some sort of business tailored seminar and so he tailors it as such. Alternatively as an American especially moderately wealthy ones such as the people he's mostly talking to will have the resources to survive for a while despite environmental conditions because we aren't actually getting hit by an astroid lol

[@dzcav3]

If you properly understood the real facts, and were honest about them, you wouldn't talk like that. AVERAGE global air temperatures are rising about 0.14 C/decade, based on UAH satellite data. (Non-satellite surface data has been "adjusted" to look worse than it really is.) But HIGH temperatures are stable. What's happening is there are slightly higher LOW temperatures, i.e. MILDER weather. Hardly anyone mentions this. Global climate disaster-related deaths have DECREASED 98% over the last century. We can adapt to climate change MUCH more economically than we can eliminate CO2 production. Climate models all FAIL to accurately model known 20th century historical data. In real science, when a hypothesis fails, it is either discarded, or corrected until it passes the data test. But this doesn't happen with climate models; they continue to be used and publicized. This tells me that "climate science" is NOT real science, but political propaganda. As a "scientist", you should be screaming for scientific integrity. As a biologist, you should realize that CO2 is PLANT FOOD, needed to help feed the world. As a human being concerned about humanity, you should be advocating for RELIABLE, AFFORDABLE energy (including fossil fuel) for the poor people of the world, who are literally dying due to lack of it. Please read the recent books by Steven Koonin, Michael Shellenberger, Bjorn Lomborg, and Alex Epstein. Stop getting your climate "news" from the politically-driven MSM.

[@ehlava]

Peter is pretty tied up with the Oil and MIC, so his vision skews in their favor, so you are right in that. He does cover climate change in his books, I guess he cant cover everything in a short speech. Climate change isn't binary. It's a long slow change. I was taught 50 years ago that the glaciers were melting.... and that continues. It will be a different world for sure, but change is a constant and it is likely a smaller factor over the near term than what he is covering here. jmtc

[@velvetfish1]

I wish I could be so optimistic. Rather, we are likely to see climate change accelerate dramatically. It used to be slow, but we have now past tipping points and the changes will be dramatic. Places like Miami , Charleston and New Orleans, be the same again with just a few feet of sea level rise and a few increasingly strong storms. Just ask those living in Amazonia now. We could see further warming dry out much of the rain forest in less than 30 years, with tremendous consequences to global climate. While we did hear about glaciers melting 50 years ago, the problem is that within the next decade many, will have fully melted. That means dramatic changes to where people can live and grow food. Massive migrations are just getting started.

[@velvetfish1]

Apologies for the bad grammar. I type faster than the server can keep up and if one backs up and corrects a mistake it can get messy.

[@maggiespod]

After reading the comments I decided not to waste time watching

[@manoftheroad55]

Since Vaxx there are fewer and fewer boomers... Each month excess mortality

[@chrishooge3442]

Epidemics tend to hit the young and the old the hardest. But maybe you were just spewing anti-vax BS. Maybe go look at images of smallpox and videos of rabies.

[@domcizek]

OVER 100 A DAY STILL DYING FROM COVID

[@manoftheroad55]

@@domcizekProbably below actual figures,, we shall never be told ..

[@domcizek]

NO THE HOSPITALS REPORT THE DATA, EVEN ON TV, THE FLU, RSP AND COVID, NOW THE LEADING CAUSE OF OSPITALZATION @@manoftheroad55

[@Ryan.G.Spalding]

Doesn’t this high cost of capital idea leave out the fact that a record amount of wealth is in the hands of few and will largely stay there? Wealthy don’t spend near the same % of wealth and then pass it down to their 2 kids.

[@markusschellenberg4684]

Assuming, that there was no climate crisis coming up, Peter is perfectly right. Given, that there is a global climate and overshoot crisis staring at us, all of this will be overtaken by reality in 15 years at most. Looking forward to accepting Peter in the community of coming global collapse once he picks up. His analysis will be very welcome then.

[@tacopie310]

15 years is optimistic. Climate Crisis is not 'coming.' It has already arrived.

[@ruthcrites]

​@@tacopie310and its compounding exponentially

[@kwimms]

There is no climate crisis, but there are liars.

[@-whackd]

​@@ruthcritesOh really? How much did global climate warm between the year 2000 and now?

[@-whackd]

How much do you believe (in degrees Celsius) global climate will increase "in the next 15 years"?

[@titusjames4912]

Learn how to assemble chips and do it in spanish. Language learning and chip manufacturing are two of my favorite things. I will see how close I can get to that goal in the next 3 years Zeihan.

[@LanceLaCroix]

After hearing Pete's mis-stating of the Rhino's... and the fictitious rant against the Republicans / Trump, well that just shows he'll peddle any garbage he thinks will stick with the audience... I lost all respect for him and now see what so many who call him out, are referring to... Too bad

[@htown148]

watching MAGA get upset that not everyone is in their cult is hilarious. You people are a laughing stock of the world

[@danielash1704]

The domain of shipping is mainly the production parts and a electronic type product that cannot be made in the country it's demanding foreign currency exchange these are entanglement in transportation the chip manufacturers have a under stock and they are struggling to get the material they need to produce a chip that's outdated before they know it is like registering for a heart transplant and no hearts available 💔 😔 the world is not so easy to make production in every location because of privacy and the world changes a lot more

[@patverbiest7983]

all part of the world depopulation system.

[@nobilismaximus]

He needs a better tailor. Unless it’s on purpose then it’s genius

[@darkhorsecomms]

It's the brand, lol

[@nasunoyoichi5253]

It's part of his comedy shtick. Peter is always fishing for laughs.

[@GeoScorpion]

He's a Colorado Republican hippie that does half his vids on mountain peaks because he presumably loves hiking and doesn't get a helicopter ride to the locations. I think he is dressed as who he is and LOVES when people like you say nay. lol!

[@DougImmel-y2x]

@31:04 "are you KIDDING ME?" Sublime.

[@Triaprima7]

Zeihan is a peculiar character. His take on China with US data on the balloon affair is very radical: proposing the country has politically broke its structure with Xi Jinpings power grab. Even more radical that the country will fall apart His demographic based outlook is not too bad i guess, but his main audience is the american bourgeoisie trying to prepare those guys for a post globalisation world, where the US economy is more focused on the demographically good looking NAFTA zone.

[@mangonut]

If you listen to China analysts in Asia or those who are 1st gen Chinese-American, they’re all saying the same thing as Peter. He’s far from radical

[@mommy6671]

It is just so annoying that we are not thinking about having more children and lowering screen time, getting out in nature and making it so families can spend more time together. It is almost like some people really want a catastrophe. People are beginning to create family farms again, repairing our local food supply chains and having more children. However we can just give up on the American dream for our children. Why would we do that?

[@caesarmatty]

How much does Peter make for 2 hour engagement like this (w/Q&A)?

[@bradmiller6507]

He earns a lot. Keep in mind that in order to earn that he’s spent decades collecting, interpreting and learning to communicate it clearly and concisely. He probably didn’t make the same hourly rate doing that.

[@MichaelDeMersLA]

In 2018, it was $22,000 per hour. It’s probably gone up now that he has a lot of cia money

[@GowthamNatarajanAI]

@@MichaelDeMersLA CIA money? You have any proof?

[@williamcahill2462]

​@@GowthamNatarajanAIit's well known he briefs CIA

[@Balance3rd]

@@GowthamNatarajanAIhe references it in his books

[@barbarahopper3813]

I sure wanted to like this but early on the partisan drops lost 75% of me. The last 25% was no mention of the global issue of sudden deaths of very young to older people. There is no mention of the mishandling of the Biden/Obama administration, and that's just a few of my criticisms; no disrespect to the presenter. By way of mention, no Trump lover here, I don't live on anyone's plantation, I deplore hive minds and by the grace of God have a pretty good head on my shoulders.

[@pepperpeddler]

Your opinion on Trump is the worst take I've heard from you but we all can't be right all the time . I do appreciate your insight and I mean that cause you are a very knowledgeable guy plus it's entertaining

[@icjulia2]

He lives in the liberal bubble with TDS. He’s very smart, but he’s not a fortuneteller. I think he’s most out of touch with the pulse of the country, and the power of Trump‘s populist movement.

[@BaoChiSandival]

Not all battery systems that are in the pipeline for sustainable technologies require lithium or nickel. There are other battery technologies that use much more common minerals that are being developed. We need to push those technologies rather than fossil fuels.

[@christophermcanally1246]

Zeihan needs to reevaluate the Chinese Navy. It has more long-range refueling capacity than Japan and is approaching the capacity of the UK. Yes most of the fleet is small, but it's evolving and will be a formidable challenge. The Japanese Navy is not really a blue water navy without the US logistics support. China is operating in the Indian ocean and has proven it can operate in the deep Pacific. Now can the Chinese economy support such a navy...

[@davidlawrenz2061]

I am not convinced that China properly drills in adverse conditions, night/storms/degraded systems. They seem to be more worried about looking good than actually being good. Being good means failing in training exercises. Failing in training is desirable in militaries like the US if there are lessons learned but in corrupt and autocratic nations, training exercises are how they measure effective leadership, so exercises are skewed for rapid victory.

[@Kephartable]

When one side has 2 modern aircraft carriers the other side will shortly have a former navy.

[@AquilaUng]

He's just coasting these days, presenting 10 year old ideas and data.

[@rentslave]

The USA White births were at an all time low of 39 per cent in 2022. The world will not be able to do without the creativity and adaptability.

[@TheCynicalClit]

The description of german credit rules is complete non-sense. Not sure where he would get this from, if it is not made up. Quite opposite to that, for the most time (in that timeframe) we had up to 115% credits, so the bank was financing the house and the attached buying costs. Banks would give credit to anyone not running away fast enough. Really has nothing to do with the states using credit. Peter is fun to watch, but you really have to wonder, what else is just made up for the fun of it.

[@canitbu6217]

Great! Thanks.

[@SakuraMo1844]

I'm sceptical of predictions that do not see the world as one in this day and age. Us and them analysis is what will doom us all.