Pocket Kings Under Fire (Is This a Bluff?)

[@CrushlivePoker]

What would you have done here preflop? Call or 5 bet?

[@kennethchia4194]

I like calling for all the reasons stated. Backraise from UTG +1 and shove from SB means easy fold. If button shoves and is called by SB I would probably call, and I certainly would call if button is shoving and everyone else is folding. If it were a three- or four-way pot, that's obviously not ideal, but so be it.

[@ZyliahWar]

Call, mainly due to the awkward stack sizes as they relate to jamming. In addition, opening from UTG, then calling a four-bet might look like QQ or JJ more than KK. In that case, AK could raise thinking they'll either get a fold or be in a race, and QQ might come over the top thinking they're against JJ. (I'm not saying these things are *likely*, but they're not unrealistic.)

[@yoniker83]

Since the 4-bet was made versus a whale 3-bet and a caller, so both squeezing and isolating, this is a wider range than usual. If I have a 5-bet range then it’s a mandatory 5-bet (the value portion of a 5-bet range cannot be only AA), unless I have a *very very* strong read on the flatter, which the player thought he had.

[@corylink3195]

In live poker. I can see me folding. Depending how good/bad I've been running.

[@UncleJoeLITE]

call & hope it went this well...

[@stevenxu5747]

Pocket Kings = "The cowboys" Pocket Kings that get cracked = "The Dallas Cowboys"

[@gnoel5722]

All this because he was scared of AA preflop. Being scared of badbeats and running into AA preflop will cost you way more in the long run than just playing standard with your strong range. And even if you run into AA you always have around 18% equity.

[@losyart]

Im like 90 % sure he wasnt best on river.

[@Unhingedanduninformed]

So you’re advocating to 5b shove and… only get called by aces as played? Maybe a sliver of AK?

[@kevinmclain6741]

It's totally fine NEVER having a 5 bet range.

[@yoniker83]

I totally agree. Only other logic which I would agree with is “I have no 5-bet range and I flat AA as well”, or some *crazy strong* read on a player. This costed him half of his stack.

[@conephompany]

So many people are stackingoff with qq jj even tt, you don't even know

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

14:54 “I hadn’t seen this guy do any triple barrels. Definitely not any cold 4-bet triple barrels…” I don’t know how many hands you’d have had to play against someone to know what their cold 4-bet triple barrel bluffing range would be.

[@gxfr795]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@Dexerion]

I'd say at least 40 hours. Maybe 100.

[@gmatsue84]

@@Dexerion To find any consistency? Yeah 100 or more

[@troymcjessy7493]

What "pro" would be flatting AA to trap to a single raise utg+1 preflop? Dont understand that thinking

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

If there’s some maniac to your left that you know will 3-bet then I can see it.

[@jdearles1]

with a whale on the button who is 3b 20%+ it's not as bad as it sounds in a vacuum

[@pot_kivach160]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj even then, there has to be more than 1 maniac on your left, to believe one will 3!bet for you. One is not enough...they might have bad cards, bad day, bad feeling, ...he might screwed it up: i.e just call instead of raise. . H was scared money player...therefore, the result.

[@pot_kivach160]

@@jdearles1 not sure if that's a whale who 3b 20%+. It's rather maniac.

[@gabrielrockman]

We saw a 3 bet from the button and a 4 bet from the small blind, so from this extremely small sample size, it seems like it's not too risky to flat a UTG open hoping that someone behind raises.

[@JQpoker]

something I’ve tried to start is playing a strategy where is there are two raises in front of me I’m playing raise/fold, ie. No cold calling 3 bets and in this scenario playing 5! Or fold. With that being said, weird spot bc probably only 5! With AA KK AKs so it becomes strange on this run out. JJ seems too thin so probably only: AA (6), QQ(1), 1010(3), AdKd (1), AdJd(1), Ad5d(1)?? For value and bluffs: AdKc (1)….. not sure how we can call river. Probably should’ve thrown him $20 for the reveal

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Tricky KK here, this preflop went very weird with the SB, but flatting turned out surprisingly well. I agree with our hero's re-think. Flop, yep I'd raise at least pot, to make him pay to see that turn. My flop bet would be indifferent to a call, shove or fold. As it turned out, we'll never know but yeah, an unlikely buff, good fold given the run out imho.

[@pot_kivach160]

22:10 _I was just beating myself for not raising flop or 5 bet pre_ I could not agreed more. Most sound decisions are made within these two streets. Right or wrong, cost you less. PF: 5!bet was in order; how often happens pocket KK loses to pocket AA. Your bankroll must be able to buffer that loss. F: Raise here, and you'll find out if opponent's hand is good to chase/call/bluff on later streets.

[@Wolf.of.Gotham]

You cant go around imagining monsters under the bed, playing with scared Money is a losing strategy. If you're terrified of running into pocket aces preflop, you're going to miss out on so many profitable situations. Simplify your decisions, its less than a 2% chance KK runs in to AA & when you do, you're still sitting @ 18% equity. Those odds are far better than folding.... Playing scared is a bankroll killer. Embrace the variance, & leave the scared money to the fish.

[@pot_kivach160]

your 1 minute advices to H are better than some pro analysts did this whole session. . P.S> I can't believe that pocket KK has 18% equity against pocket AA?? That means it is going to win 1 in 5 times!! How? I would not count % of times when KK flops set, as that exact % also applies to AA. So, that leaves only situations for straights and flushes, which should not be 18%, off the top of my head calculous. Even A high straight involves a K where pocket KK loses! The same with A high flush! So, how to calculate these figures to get exact %%?? . BTW, my pocket KK lost already 4 times within last 12 months to pocket AA. That means Im scheduled to beat them soon!

[@jbbruno8115]

The villains bet on the turn seems like value - he’s afraid diamonds will get you to fold. Otherwise, if he doesn’t have a diamond, he may want to take it down right there or make a bigger bet. I think a raise on the flop would have made your decisions easier, and I don’t really see how the river changed much. Do think the fold is correct on river, but could have saved money on turn. OR believe he was overplaying AK in which case call the river.

[@patrick_kyker]

Oh no what will I do I have pocket kings? Fking 5bet to 1k I wasn't sure of the other stack sizes though.

[@conephompany]

Reraise preflop. Raise flop. I dont know why flop play regarding toke bets of 1bb to 20% pot is so quickly glanced over. Bet/call/what? Its like we're hypnotized by the initiative. We have to play back at him. Or, if we're going to call down, we have to follow through since our hand is so underrepped.

[@greekthejimmy4107]

good fold. SB probably had pocket tens that he didn't want to cold call oop. knowing utg+1 had AJ makes it less likely SB was bluffing with JJ, which was the only real bluff i could think of

[@Human-be9wz]

I looked up a similar spot in wizard and it looks like small blinds range should be AA KK all AK half QQ shades of JJ, TT, KTs, suited connectors 56 76 87, and 40% of A4s. Overall, very value heavy unless your opponents are cold 4betting in a balanced manner.

[@supersmoo7377]

This is assuming SB plays close to GTO. For all we know, the person’s never looked at a GTO chart in their entire life.

[@Human-be9wz]

@@supersmoo7377 captain obvious has entered the chat lmao

[@bbtb05]

I think flatting here with KK is pretty fine and normal, though making a small 5 bet to $575-$625 to drive out the other two players is also a pretty defensible play. Folding and jamming both seem pretty silly though. My bigger sticking point is why is the caller so convinced that UTG+1 is slow playing? He seems to think that a good player would only 3 bet or fold here but... why? I think a lot of people have taken the concept that bad players flat call to often (both with hands that should be folded and hands that should be 3 bet) and generalize that to "good players never flat" but this is absolutely wrong. Even just looking at the world of 'solver-land' UTG+1 should have some flats against an UTG open. Hands such as JJ-99, AQs, AJs, among others all make good sense to flat call in this spot. But also UTG+1 might have a different idea of how strong the other players at this table are (maybe correctly, maybe incorrectly), such that if he thinks UTG is a solid player but others at the table are not, then it makes sense for UTG+1 to flat a little more of their potentially 3-bettable range in order to allow the weaker players behind the chance to come in wider. Maybe this is true of UTG+1 strategy, maybe it is not, maybe UTG+1 is applying this idea correctly, maybe they are not. The point is that I see so many people that are convinced that they just know exactly what their opponents are up to but they just don't. The rest of the hand is pretty boilerplate and I don't think there is much to learn from it, but if the caller really wanted to reflect on this belief structure there is actually a lot to learn from this spot and room to grow. Just my $0.02

[@bbbulldog61]

My rule of thumb as an amateur player is when you under represent your hand, you're encouraging the other player to bluff. So you should lean towards calling when it's close.

[@johnf1772]

Could villain get to river, and bluff(??) with JdJx? Struggling to find a lot of bluffs here.

[@UURevival]

Used to suck because Mohegan Sun didn't have poker when I lived on Long Island and have to drive much farther to Foxwoods.

[@bruce7255]

I always hear about poker players making 40, 50, 70 dollars an hour. If even the best poker players can go months or a year without making any money or even losing how can anyone quote a win rate per hour? It seems disingenuous.

[@ANHON888]

Usually players with these win rates don’t have multiple break even or losing months. If they do, it’s offset with months of being on a heater. Win rate is just an average of a never ending session. I don’t think it’s a tough concept to understand

[@conephompany]

A cash player will just track the hours they play and the money they make and that's their win rate. Usually x dollars over 2000 hours, live. In tournaments, you can go along time without making money. Some players offset this by playing cash.

[@pot_kivach160]

you're right. Saying: my win rate is $38/hr without specifying over what period of time, is a misleading thing, that tells really not much. So, in order to make sense, there must be followed by time frame. Which size of time frame is correct? I would say time for which a poker variance effect diminishes. That'd be 35-40 sessions. After 40 sessions one cannot credit poker variance (luck, game conditions, etc) to their success or losses. After one changes the level, then the counter resets to zero, and new 40 sessions period starts. New win rate must be calculated.

[@conephompany]

@pot_kivach160 You don't specify what period of time because it incorporates all time. The only time you break up your win rate is between stakes. Any database software can look at your yearly, from excel to pokertracker. I think it's argued by some that you can't even begin to approach your true hourly rate in live poker because of the dearth of hands played.

[@ANHON888]

@@pot_kivach160 I guess my veteran ass is assuming everyone is saying they’re hourly over their lifetime. I have tens of thousands of hours logged in my Run Good app. So yes you’re correct. I can filter my app to say $100/hr etc..

[@pb30prod62]

How’s it going Bart, showing support from Mitchell, SD🎉

[@JustinEvans203]

Weekends at Mohegan are pretty action at 2/5 I’d say if you go any other day is really really tight not a fun game to play on week days

[@Jermo484]

Mohegan Sun rocks, you should definitely head down. It's SOOOO much more fun than Foxwoods. The dealers are amazing, floors are great, cage isn't half a mile away and action is better. 2/5 can definitely be boring if you don't get the right table, but the 2/5 PLO is utterly degenerate and no one has any idea what's going on. I'd go for value with any AA combo. How often does the hero really have TT? Just flatting that to the 4 bet (when you're basically never better than flipping) with two people behind who can still squeeze you out? Seems like that would be a massive punt. Same with AQ (which there are very few combos of). So you really just lose to AKdd and the remaining QQ combo.

[@hansari8697]

I dont think a 5b needs to be that big here. $750 to me is way too big IP. I think you can click it from min or anywhere up to like $610 is fine IP. All you are trying to achieve with the 5b is to aviod being sandwiched in a massive pot. When your value range in AA and KK I don't think laying the SB a great price is bad especially when your bluff here is supposed to be AK and is still flipping vs a lot of SB's value range. I think its the easiest fold if UTG1 jams in this spot. I probably even fold vs the SB unless he is crazy agro bc I don't think you see QQ or AK jam in this formation. Honestly if he's good he probably flats everything including AA.

[@pokerbosscycler]

as to las vegas 6/2 rake at red rock golden nugget is 5/2rake to play.......

[@TOM-C.]

The way this hand played out is exactly why I would have 5 bet $900 preflop, and shoved on the flop. Only hand I'm afraid of is AA, and A?d on the flop. An all in would have him folding on the flop with anything other than AA, assuming a normal good player! 😁

[@patrick_kyker]

If you raise UTG you should have a good hand. So the utg plus one guy should raise?

[@davidculhane4388]

Pretty standard in tougher more aggressive games to be playing a 3bet or fold from +2 to a UTG open to avoid having to fold to a squeeze or double flatting.

[@StanBarkington-bt7fu]

I am at the point where I have to give up this game. For the last almost year almost every time I play I get it in good and lose. Last three sessions ended as follows: 1) KK v QQ all in pre flop. He flops a set of Queens. 2) I have 33 on the button and call for $20. Flop come Q97 rainbow. Everyone checks so I check. I hit a set of 3’s of the turn. Checked around to me. I make it $45. River an ace. Check, check, $60 make it $150, small blind jams $60 folds, and I call for my last $160. He slow played QQ and I get stacked. 3) Tonight, AA middle position. $10 straddle. UTG makes it $30, to my right calls, I raise to $200, my left calls and straddle jams putting me all in. I call and the guy to my left calls also. Flop is QJ3 rainbow. We are three players all in. AA, v AK v JJ. Guy flopped a set. Night over. Every fucking time. Every…fucking…time.

[@Mr.Curiosity89]

No matter how much all the pro players and coaches deny the influence of luck on this game, luck surely affects the game more than 50%. People cannot come to terms with the fact that poker is, at the end of the day, still GAMBLING. If things are going well for you, they will continue to go well. If things are going badly, they will continue to go badly, and there is nothing that can change that outcome. The last 5 online tournaments where I got knocked out: 1) KK vs 99 2) KK vs 88 3) AK vs AQ 4) J10 vs J9 5) And this one frustrated me so much that I couldn't recover for days: A10 vs A8

[@StanBarkington-bt7fu]

@@Mr.Curiosity89 yeah I don’t know how people survive it. How did these guys who have big bank rolls get there? I mean legitimately if you take my last three losses I was 20% to lose x 20% to lose x 1.4% to get set over set - the probability of losing all three is less than 1%. And that just the last three. There are more. It’s a shit feeling being in a hand even when you know you’re a big favorite and you still feel like you’re gonna lose. I literally told some kid early on when I sat down and in my first orbit would have won three big pots with hands I couldn’t even call pre flop with that “watch, in the end I’ll get felted on set over set”…well someone flopping a set of jacks when you have AA is nearly the same.

[@natejohnson3638]

Kind of odd for the caller to say that 2/5 is tight, yet lots of multiway pots, not much action, focused more on getting value from good hands, yet again tight and no action.

[@Wolf.of.Gotham]

Yeah, calling that 2/5 game tight but full of multiway pots with No action, makes no sense. I've never been a tight game that have alot multiway pots with no action. But if is that type of table, that's easy work.. Play aggressive, when you're blocking or drawing to the NUTS, & on All your Strong hands, dial up the aggression even more. You should be printing money if it's that type of table💰🤑

[@mattbrick1246]

Always contradicting themselves

[@davidculhane4388]

He meant weak tight lots of flatting and passive splashy play preflop but stacks not going in often. He was saying the 5/10 was what I'd call "reg action" aggresive solid poker...

[@checkmatewithdan]

Completely off topic but could someone give me some poker advice - I’m a fairly new player (6 months ish) and feel like I’m starting to find my edge in playing turbo tournaments (9 players) on pokerstars - just wondering what kind of sample size I would need to work out if I am profitable and can move up stakes. Thank you Great content as usual Bart

[@clementl.784]

I'd say 1000 minimum.

[@losyart]

U mean 9 players SNGs or Turbo MTTs??? In both cases i think after 5k tournaments u have pretty clear view if u r profitable

[@checkmatewithdan]

@@losyart just regular sit and gos

[@patrick_kyker]

Can the SB have A5?

[@TheDaveWright]

I played Encore $5/$10 Friday. It's $13 time.

[@kitbillion7783]

I think the best play is minclicking pre, because greedy villain will probably jam AA against that so we're golden vs call. Betting flop for 1/4 checking back turn and then calling river for half or less and fold vs big bet

[@kitbillion7783]

Obviously not calling off pre

[@MrPhilaCuse]

Gross spot. I know it's not easy to find bluffs but isn't it tough to find value too? If you discount KK (judging by the comments, some people never flat) what is AA trying to get value from, exactly JJ and what else?

[@nemozetbit]

Flatting KK with action behind so you could fold to a 5 bet? what? Are we really putting the guy on AA and set mining here with Kings? Just 5-bet to 1.2k pre and call off the shove. He's got it - he's got it.

[@thomasrichardson-ev1wp]

Promos have killed good games in Vegas.

[@WokeSteve]

All in ,next?

[@Thanks-bj1fo]

That's a 5 bet all in pre flopfrom me.

[@BenEberts]

Mohegan is better than foxwoods in my opinion and both places are way better than encore.

[@C-Gan1970]

Jam

[@AlienationIsReal]

5 bet pre. To most players fold to a 6 bet.

[@NJRealtorDave]

SB may have KK with a diamond

[@zachmclean2858]

As played turn is a fold

[@mattbrick1246]

Jam pre, end of review.

[@stevenundisclosed6091]

With rare exceptions, always buy in for the table max.

[@Trust_but_Verify]

When would you top off to table max?

[@zekebones34]

What a stupid statement. If the other 8 guys at the table all buy in for the min, you don’t need to buy in for the max

[@scottcunning4221]

@@zekebones34is everyone buying in at the min a normal or rare event?

[@stevenundisclosed6091]

@@zekebones34 that is literally one of the exceptions I was talking about in my initial statement.

[@markwinchester5434]

@@zekebones34until someone doubles up and now you don’t cover them

[@alehix]

I would raise flop to see where I'm at because I can eliminate most AK and otherwise take the betting leading to potentially get to river cheaper

[@chasecarlon2730]

Listen here caller (lol) I'm a 2/5 player in a soft game. I'm all for live reads as these players give away so much, it's more important to me than specific ranges and some other fundamenta aspects, again, specifically to my game. It is very likely a good player may call, hoping for a 3 behind.because it is happening often, but that doesn't mean he insta called YOU for that same reason. Your perception of this guy on your left being 'pro' is what gave you fear. Yes, you were there and I was not, but I've also gotten that fear before. Anyway, kill em!

[@mashzilla]

He could also have KK with the diamond 😂

[@MrAgmoore]

LOL 😂silly goose 🪿

[@tipsy09]

buddy coulda had a T9 of clubs and chose the best time to bluff the way the hand played out this is a good run out for T9 and JT of clubs

[@ablair2794]

I think there is a strong argument for a preflop fold. Not because of fear of AA necessarily, but because the risk is not worth the reward. Bad situation. The money is going all-in if you stick around, so if you are going to call, just go all-in preflop. Hopefully someone folds

[@Dompropat]

MOHEGANNNNNNNN

[@benjamintaylor8665]

hero is a fish

[@jessehuxley2947]

Scared money doesn’t make money rip it in or flat pre, shove flop

[@gazorpazorp9798]

AK vs KK Is not trapping

[@pot_kivach160]

he is! He is trapping himself on behalf of KK holder!

[@gazorpazorp9798]

@@pot_kivach160 lol too true

[@danielmeuler2877]

If Heads-Up in Position is a "crazy spot" for the caller, maybe he should be playing Bingo.

[@yoniker83]

12:40: Bart, When you imitate someone using that tone, you sound like a woman quoting someone else’s opinion with whom she disagrees. It’s quite embarrassing to watch. Anyway, it was me, and yeah, according to GTO, JJ is a pure fold against UTG raise and UTG+1 3-bet. The statement “He’s got some bluffs too” is illogical-the solver finds more bluffs preflop than humans do. Therefore, the fact that he has bluffs is not a good reason to counter my argument, which is based on facts. Also, considering that you advocate flatting KK (the second nuts preflop) vs. a 4-bet made against a whale 3-bet and a caller (which equals a wider range than normal for isolating and squeezing), folding JJ to a normal 3-bet with the tightest configuration in terms of positions in poker looks extremely good now...

[@gxfr795]

Corny guy😂😂you’re just mad because he made fun of you and we all laughed

[@yoniker83]

​@@gxfr795 You're saying that he made fun of me, by repeating a fact (JJ is a fold) with a cringe-worthy tone? It's really easy to make you laugh then :) Good for you, it's healthy.

[@gxfr795]

@@yoniker83 Dude you’re not qualified to advise Bart or any of us at poker. This is why they shouldn’t allow just any fish access to a solver it’s like giving a 3 year old a grenade

[@yoniker83]

​@@gxfr795 You know literally nothing about me, other than this: I'm listening to Bart and can state a fact, and you call me a fish. Now, that is funny, since that applies to you as well. You're watching this, and you can state facts. Also, to date, no counterargument was presented by Bart to the fact I've mentioned. Unless repeating that fact with a cringe tone counts.

[@gxfr795]

@@yoniker83 how about the counter argument that live low stake poker is a very different game and offers more opportunity for exploitative play hence a 4bet/fold strategy against certain player types? I’ll save Bart the headache of dealing with you

[@kevinm.6855]

Lose 30. And fold pre. So many better spots.