Poker Bet Sizing 101: Small Bet vs. BIG Bet Paradox Explained

In this video, Bart covers the small bet versus large bet sizing paradox. In live poker cash games a large bet can actually get called more than expected since the bet feels so polarizing to either a bluff or a nutted hand. Small bets conversely feel like value and may get called less. Based on the situation and opponent tendencies, you are always trying to determine the bet amount with the highest EV. For example, a $500 bet that gets called 1/2 the time has an EV of $250. A $300 bet that gets called 75% of the time would have an EV of $225 so in the above example $500 would be the more profitable bet.
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0:00 - Intro
0:47 - Preflop
3:20 - Flop
6:35 - Turn
9:39 - River
12:16 - Hero Decision
14:08 - Reveal?
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[@CrushlivePoker]

This hand demonstrates how large bets on boards that your opponent doesn't expect you to bet often result in the bet looking "polar" and getting called down lighter.

[@Kassadin10]

The moral of the story at the end: bet more with value, bet less with bluffs? Am I right?

[@brianpotter2812]

@@Kassadin10 not necessarily...that's too polar and easily picked up on. If you can place your opponent on a range of hands, you adjust your bet size accordingly to either A) try to get paid because you improved or B) try to get them to fold a hand by looking strong. If you put your opponent was on a draw and missed, you bet smaller to get value just in case they backed into a pair with show down value. If you've been aggressive most of the way and continue to do so on the river, you can get called down lighter b/c they're not putting you on the straight/flush that came.

[@pot_kivach160]

@@Kassadin10 it takes a to pay out you when you don't know what you're doing. That's the moral. SB was triple lucky: (1) flopped an A (scared BB) (2) drown nuts on river (3) run into a fish who paid him out!! Then he called Bart to show off!

[@friend0]

Love the these videos Bart. I like following along with the step by step logical thinking. It's just interesting even though I rarely play poker anymore. One thing I think that might make them even better, if I may, is a conclusion section at the end. Not necessarily a step by step summary but more of a higher level what did we learn conceptually segment. Might go some ways towards meeting the claims made in the video titles too lol.

[@markfromct2]

This was a good one Bart. Thank you. I am often having medium/low prs that miss the set with over cards on the board.

[@GoldenGolden31]

So we’re thinking JJ or QQ for villain? A set doesn’t really make sense because of the statement “…but I knew you didn’t have one either.” Referring to an ace which leads me to believe he has a hand worse than top pair. KK has to raise pre, I don’t really see J10s or similar calling pre with 2 ppl left to act behind.

[@DarylRElliott]

Yes JJ all day

[@ewallt]

I was thinking of 3 barreling on the turn just because there weren’t that many bluffs, but had some second thoughts because there are flush bluffs, but otoh if the flush card came, you could bluff that. Turn when the 6 came I was thinking that would have been perfect. I was also curious when Bart said there wasn’t any back door equity on the flop, when there was a three straight, which is where the idea for barreling came from if you picked up the straight draw on the turn. Regarding using the big amount to value bet (e.g. $450) and a smaller amount to bluff, as opposed to the reverse, this reminds me of Sklansky’s NLHE book from years ago pointing out this was a common error among newbies which would lead to minimizing gains on value hands while maximizing losses on bluffs. It’s not really relevant regarding this hand, because of the leveling going on, and level of reasoning being at a higher level, but I couldn’t but be reminded of that point from this book which must be about 25 years old now. One last point is that solvers will not infrequently recommend aggressive action on the flop with hands with back door possibilities while less aggressive lines with one card draws because if you get raised off your equity, you don’t care, since it’s not much, whereas you would care with the draws. So this came to mind at the flop that it seemed like it could be a nice 3 barrel possibility.

[@datsumcrzysht]

Lucky run out and great over bet(it looks very bluffy). I probably would’ve been hoping to pull off a cheap bluff or just give up after a flop that basically guaranteed that I was now behind against V’s 3! cold calling range.

[@vinnyeckert1753]

Hey Bart love the channel watch every episode . I wanted to call a hand in what’s the process?

[@Kassadin10]

dude, it's literally in the description

[@vinnyeckert1753]

lol nice

[@magicalelvishman]

What about KK? You cold call from the big blind with the hope to bait a squeeze. If you raise and get called, you'll be playing multiway out of position. If you call and get called, at least the pot is a bit less bloated. You just call on the flop because you're leery of the ace, but on the turn with the middle straight possibilities you don't feel obliged to protect. Then on the river you think maybe it's a busted flush bluff, rationalize that a naked ace wouldn't bet therefore polarized, and you call off because it's KK?

[@pot_kivach160]

*_What about KK?_* *_You cold call from the big blind with the hope to bait a squeeze_* squeeze by who? relying on your opponent to do your job?? *_If you raise and get called, you'll be playing multiway out of position_* Multiway 4-bet? If you're afraid of that, then fold your KK and get immediate stress relief! . when you play your hand wrongly from the start to finish, you get busted. That's a beauty of poker, that unfortunately does not work all time. Only 75% (my own stat).

[@jamespohl-md2eq]

@@pot_kivach160Well stated.

[@algoritma005]

i totally agree..for KK.. Rarely sometimes we can call cards like KK and AA on the preflop to avoid scaring the opponent(especially one on one)..I don't think he made a call with a high card.(KQ etc..) i use google translate..i am from turkiye and hello everyone

[@jamespohl-md2eq]

@@algoritma005 Calling out of position w aces or kk in a 3bet multi way is bad poker. And is a losing strategy.

[@algoritma005]

@@jamespohl-md2eq I'm sorry I got the people mixed up. I thought the person who increased $25 accepted $100.. So I mixed BB and CO My English is bad, I hope I was able to explain.Cannot be KK.

[@johnathanreynolds1108]

Villian says he didn't have an Ace? I'm calling bs unless he had a set of 10's or 8's. Especially when he called off at the end. He didn't have air. I can't see him calling with jacks to kings either. Too many two pairs or an ace x for hero . He was only uncomfortable at the end .. definitely wasn't afraid of that ace

[@timmulder6362]

Lil vilain bro woul've 100% bet a set of 10's or 8's ont the turn

[@johnathanreynolds1108]

​@@timmulder6362 That's why I'm calling Bs unless he thought he could be tricky/trapping and get Ax or two pair to call by checking turn and realized he fucked up on the river!? Maybe I'm a nit? But I can't really see calling over pot size river bet as a bluff catcher, without an ace, less I have a solid read on the person (jj-kk)

[@sonicboomers122]

I once Bluff Shove with Pair of 2s no kicker and got called with Ace high never doubt a person's willingness to Hero Call

[@pot_kivach160]

the guy was a fish.

[@GoldenGolden31]

@jonathanreynolds1108 A set doesn’t really make sense because of the statement “…but I knew you didn’t have one either.” Referring to an ace which leads me to believe he has a hand worse than top pair so I’m thinking JJ or QQ. KK has to raise pre, I don’t really see J10s or similar calling pre with 2 ppl left to act behind.

[@KS-ud8pg]

Glad there was none of the rec player or pro player classifications.

[@mattfox5933]

WouldI bet small to induce or blast it!

[@morganlast4894]

I agree was thinking 150

[@mattfox5933]

@@morganlast4894even go like $80-100 might induce them to go $450 then we can shove and get maxxxx

[@Matzes]

He has JJ blocking the nuts

[@DatAceTho]

If villain were to lie, he'd probably claim a set.

[@TheMightyDoon]

I think applying GTO in these games is a mistake cause the basic principle is the other player needs to be applying it also. Hero got lucky cause after checking turn he gets looked up on brick river. I doubt KQs is in BB's range with 2 others to act. I wonder if people are calling more with dominated hands cause they "block" them.

[@jacevincent2574]

that's not how GTO works at all, you would want to play GTO if you expect your opponents to punish you for deviating, not because you expect your opponents to play GTO

[@TheMightyDoon]

That is how it works. Look it up. The concept of GTO is great for balance etc but you're making a mistake by focusing on it when your opponents aren't. GTO is needed at the highest levels where everyone is great. It's no where near as necessary in $2-5.@@jacevincent2574

[@TheMightyDoon]

My reply was deleted. Interesting. The concept of GTO is premised on reciprocity. Look it up. Incorporating the concept into our game is great, but fundamental decision making is way more applicable in real time vs opponents who aren't using it, esp in $2-5. @@jacevincent2574

[@TheMightyDoon]

I said GTO is premised on reciprocity, which it is, yet both of my respectful yet disagreeing replies were deleted. Wow censorship at CrushlivePoker. Who knew.@@jacevincent2574

[@TheMightyDoon]

Been a while since I got The Hat Trick, when it used to mean three c/r's in a row. You must be either a preferred subscriber or have your own delete power cause this is comical. Playing GTO when the opponent is playing ABC is a mistake. Vamos para cuatro!!!!@@jacevincent2574

[@pot_kivach160]

that's why one must 4-bet when IP and holding a strong pair/A and a high kicker card. To squeeze shit out of brains of those with a speculative hands who's hoping to 3-bet from OOP successfully against multiway pot!! Make them pay,

[@gazorpazorp9798]

Villain is lying fo shore

[@charlesnewborn3760]

Lol. this flop is literally a disaster. EVERY single hand opponent cold calls 3bet got there: AK, AQ, 1010, 88, and hands that ALREADY have u beat, JJ, QQ, KK. Lol.

[@griffytok7220]

No not every single one

[@griffytok7220]

Not only will there always be some air but there is also KQ suited and sometimes 77

[@griffytok7220]

But I agree it's a disaster flop

[@brianchassee]

yes but villain decides to never raise or take the lead so there ya go

[@charlesnewborn3760]

​@@griffytok7220yes EVERY single one provided villian isn't some retarded fish. Based on the semi reveal at the end, clearly Villian had JJ or QQ as those are the only realistic hands based on the action, what villian said, and the fact that he quickly called.