Poker Odds For Players That HATE Math

[@ThePokerBank]

If you ever wonder "what are the odds of certain runouts happening?", The Postflop Poker Workbook has a complete chapter on it with exercises + formulas + answers! www.splitsuit.com/postflop-poker-workbook

[@lozgod]

I flop sets 11% of the time. My opponents flop them the other 89% of the time.

[@christianaustin782]

😂😂 now that's funny lol. Sounds like an older phrase but I haven't heard that one before

[@stevenstrauss759]

How often is the flop uncooperative? I’d say that runs right around 110% of the time😊

[@TalkingGIJoe]

😂😂😂😂 exactly...

[@riffz6065]

This channel is sooooo good. Looking to start my poker career asap and your content is amazing. Ty friend.

[@ThePokerBank]

You're very welcome! Have you done CORE at all yet? redchippoker.com/launch-core

[@riffz6065]

@@ThePokerBank I haven't but I wrote it down because of your video. Is it something you recommend for absolute beginners? I'm still fairly new to poker math in general.

[@ThePokerBank]

@@riffz6065 Yup, it's exactly meant for beginner-intermediate players, with lots of math lessons too 👍

[@MrAgmoore]

This is great. I was trying to Google how often pocket Kings will see an Ace on the flop but the question was too complex for Google. I need to start getting these tools & the workbook.

[@chanceneck8072]

I know one statistic at least 😅 (I love math though): What are the odds of a royal flush and quad aces happening in the same hand??? 🤭 (I'll post my answer in the replies. If you know it, too, just don't check them and reply yourself first)

[@chanceneck8072]

I think it was 1 in 2,7 BILLION.... 😅

[@TuckertonWSOP]

0.05%

[@danielhenry6777]

what % of the time do you win when you play live poker?

[@pokerqAK47]

Around 60-65%. Can be lower if you’re more loose aggressive and higher if you’re more nitty.

[@danielhenry6777]

@@pokerqAK47 what should my vpip be in a live cash game?

[@aaronbreider4788]

engagement

[@kiaser21]

One question, mathematically flopping a set is 12%, but let's say you have pocket 6's at a 9 handed table and you're in small blind, folds around to CO who raises and everyone left folds to you (you call) and BB folds. Can we expect at least a slight bit of lower rank cards being removed from the deck, which would decrease your 12% odds of hitting a set even if marginal because all those bad hands that folded pre are more weighted to have had a 6?

[@tristandueck6077]

You unfortunately can’t make decisions with no information

[@stylin40s]

Poker is a game of imperfect information; do you take hesitation to fold to mean they HAD an A? or a small pocket pair? or they are a NIT and had AJs and deemed it too loose to raise from an early position? If you know your opponents that well then you would be printing money with exploits. Sure, an UTG RFI and an early position 3-bet can assume two strong hands, and allow you to fold pocket pairs preflop (depending on stack sizes and SPR-stack to pot ratios and player tendencies) but you can't really assume that someone who folded had a 6 because you have 2 of them, if anything it would make it 50% less likely that they had a 6, because you have 2 of them. Anything is possible, I know someone who hit the Powerball, those odds are ridiculous compared to a hand of poker. It's a long-term game, one hand doesn't matter, one session doesn't matter. If you make the appropriate decision, then long term you will make money. Sometimes it will feel wrong, and sometimes you will lose. I have taught a few people, and so far, they are life long winners, I have been fortunate to be on the good side of variance more than the bad side. Watch top level pros, Don't overplay hands, they don't. Understand bankroll management, you'll go far. Last note on your initial question, it's hard to make a pair in Hold 'Em.

[@kiaser21]

@stylin40s But we can conclude that all who folded pre didn't have AA or KK, right? On the opposite end, shouldn't we be able to also know that hands folded pre from a single bet are going to be weighted to ranges that are lower in the range scale, which also often include lower ranked cards? So we might not be able to account for exactly another 6 being folded, but it's certainty can't be even odds that lower ranked cards were folded as much as higher ranked cards?

[@DaarioNeharis]

@@kiaser21Q6, K6 and A6 if they are all off suit will definitely be folded to a raise preflop if the raise is a 3 bet. sometimes a BB can defend with a 76s or 56s .. i think you can just go with the 12% figure on flopping a set when you have any pocket pair..