What is Expected Value in Poker?

[@GTOWizard]

Admit it, how many years have you played poker before understanding EV?

[@JazzYachtrocker]

420

[@seanquinlan2547]

It would be great if gto wizard could showed the decomposition of ev in the UI - knowing how much of the ev of a given bet comes from villain folding seems rather useful!

[@simon77882002]

10:30 M should be 26bb

[@Neytpoh]

yeah, i was like "wtf am i stupid or what? itsn ot 24" :D

[@GTOWizard]

Yes you are correct, we apologize for the oversight!

[@thedspenguin]

regarding the 75s example... I was under the impression that GTO Wizard's opening ranges and corresponding data for each hand already took into account the blockers. meaning, it was already taking into account that those 2 cards are out of the deck and readjusting from 1326 possible combos to 1225.

[@GTOWizard]

To be clear, GTO Wizard DOES account for these blockers. The decomposition reveals how often we expect to steal, get called, or face a raise. Blockers change these frequencies, and changes how much EV our hand derives from each outcome. But the total EV of opening (the sum of all EVs) stays the same.

[@thedspenguin]

@@GTOWizard I had to read it like 10 times and really think it through but I believe I understood, thank you.

[@daurenn3636]

9:57 first off, when we put a minus sign in a formula like this we should put extra parentheses before the minus sign. Secondly, the answer in this example should be M=26, isn't it?

[@FCarraro1]

14:12 I have an issue with this calculation: you would multiply the three probabilities if those events were independent. BUT, SB folds 83% just in case it comes to that node, which is just the 79% times BU folds. So, shouldn't SB fold frequency be (0.79*083)? And shouldn't BB ff be 0.79*0.83*0.58?

[@JanosTCG]

At the final table deal how exactly did you get the probability numbers? I understand the calculation, but i wouldnt be able to find the probability numbers myself?

[@davidecaramia8567]

How to calculate fold% call% 3bet% of other players considering blockers ? Counting every combo we block looks like a long process, maybe there's a shortcut ?

[@viniciuscollaco]

There's a way to see the blocker effect on GTOw PF? To see the percentage?

[@Julu223]

in the spirit of this video I tried to calculate EV of a punt I did the other day in a live game. Long story short, on the river my recreational opponent bets 65 into 150 (I'm IP with 260 behind), board T87 6 3 (any 9 is a straight, J9 nuts). Me holding Q9 I decided to shove 260 into 215 hoping to get folds from 9x about 25% of the time. without getting into much detail I assumed his range is 51c of 9x of which is 8.5c of J9. So here's what I got: Fold, win = ($215 x .25) = +53.75 Call, chop = ($0 x .55) = 0 Call, lose = (-260 x .2) = -52 EV = +1.75 Now I know there're a lot of assumptions about combos and frequencies. But I just wanted to ask if my EV formula for these outcomes is correct.

[@moneymaker7307]

This EV nonsense actually cost people money. The problem most people don’t notice is that their play style becomes quite predictable and can be easily exploited. In fact, I destroyed a guy taking away is 1700 from him with a 6-9 off suit card. Is range calculation makes him blinded. He thinks any time he raise 10 big blinds preflop only premiums high hand are coming along for the ride.

[@linus5885]

@@moneymaker7307 most stupid comment i have read in years

[@Serebity]

Is there any chance to get an excell with the ev charts (when get folds/called/raised from all opening positions).I liked the video,but the 65s example made great sense,considering that I play live loose passive 9 handed games sometimes.If by any chance you have some worksheet that you generated when making the video,pls share(I hope this is the case because I saw the level of determination you are willing to go in the PLOvsHOLDEM video you made with joey 😊). Thanks

[@VyNguyen-wh3xq]

Your EV(shove) formula at 6:50 has a typo, the (200*.2) supposed to be (101.5*.2). At 7:30 Your EV(shove) formula said to multiple everything out, I think you meant to put the add symbol not the times symbol. The formula to figure out M when set EV(call) to zero, I got -26bb not 24bb. Even taken in absolute value, it's different answers. Can you explain this part? Using the implied odds formula to find M, which M=((Lose%*Lose$)/win%)-win$ gives the wrong answer unless you plus Win$ at the end. So if I change the formula to M=((Lose% * Lose$)/win%)+ win$, then I get the same answer as EV(call) = 0 and solved for M, which in this case still result in a -26bb. I didn't check the math on the rest of the video, but the concepts and contents are Superb. Thank you.

[@GTOWizard]

Yes you're correct, thanks for pointing that out!

[@erronblack1]

6:57 Shouldn't that be 101.5 instead of 200?

[@GTOWizard]

Yes that's correct, this was a typo

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Thanks from AU.

[@kizzyle5989]

Nice

[@owenkeith1188]

Why is the actual math you are showing taking up less space on the screen than the AI generated crap images. This would be 100% more watchable for me if you just removed the AI shit completely and just had the math.

[@bone6p]

Agree. Recent videos used too much AI-generated crap images

[@owenkeith1188]

@@bone6p Yeah, it just distracts me and I find myself looking at the image instead of paying attention to the concepts. Then I click away.

[@Seadevil910]

Agree, get rid of the AI art or just flash the lics

[@leoyuan3f]

Cause it increases the EV of retaining your attention.

[@viktorivanov1172]

FICK AI

[@goranhrkman3789]

Are you allowed to use a calculator when sitting at a live table? lol I don´t understand any of this stuff but still I am a winning player. The most important thing when playing poker if you want to be successful, is knowing your opponents. If your opponents are nits, shove more. If opponents are lags, be careful what you are shoving with. You have the nuts? Then shove more against these players. Variance in poker is a bit*h so no need to try calculating EV.

[@GTOWizard]

There are many winning players who aren't mathematically inclined. But those players tend to have a very sharp intuitive understanding of where their EV comes from, built on a mountain of thousands of hours of practice. However, as a noobie, you can scale that mountain much faster if you learn how to actually calculate where your EV comes from, rather than guessing based on your limited experience.