Polling expert Sir John Curtice reacts to general election results | LBC

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice reacts to the general election results.
Keir Starmer will become the UK's new Prime Minister after a Labour landslide swept away a string of Tory heavyweights.
Rishi Sunak conceded the election around 4:40am as cabinet casualties built up through the night.
Listen to the full show on Global Player: app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/...
#nickferrari #johncurtice #polling #ukpolitics #generalelection #labour #conservatives #LBC
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[@Slackboy72]

He's clearly putting the cart before the horse. The people who eroded the tories was the tories themselves.

[@amadeus.k331]

These weren't torries; these clowns and their circus were acting like Lib-Dems... The BS you saw since the end of Johnson was just the leftists' hivemind masquerading as conservatives

[@czarekp3552]

Ferrari in mourning.... How delightful

[@jaxcoss5790]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@coppershark1973]

DELICIOUS - savour it.

[@boba2783]

Can you possibly imagine supporting the Tories? I mean seriously, waking up in a morning and saying I’m a Tory and proud of it? It’s so alien to me that I just can’t comprehend it

[@coderider3022]

If you’re in retirement with a large estate / net worth I bet you would.

[@danw5760]

I can't, but I feel exactly the same about those who support labor.

[@stephenrichards5386]

Could say the same of labour.

[@SirHargreeves]

Labour only got 33.7% of the vote, the most abysmal vote share of a winning party ever.

[@IMBlakeley]

@@coderider3022 Can guarantee that's not always the case.

[@profdrrameshkumarbiswas1337]

Mordant Truss, Rees-Mugg and so many other despicable people LOST!!!!Hurray!!!

[@AndyM_323YYY]

I'd be cheering too, but the most despicable of all has now gotten a seat in Parliament and is leading a Party that has a significant share of the vote.

[@philthrelfall5294]

​@@AndyM_323YYY But Fartage will be bored by having to actually do some work. He will then leave and Reform will fold. I give it 18 months?

[@Deedeevenice]

@@philthrelfall5294As long as that? People of Clacton are not the smartest bunch!

[@elinorrowlands]

@@AndyM_323YYY yes he never really showed up as an MEP, he will get bored. He profits off cameo gigs. £50k a pop. He doesn't do any "real" work.

[@eddiecalderone]

@@elinorrowlands Simply because the eu parliament is irrelevant

[@kerryfry1857]

Tactical voting played a blinder. Lib dems gave us Labour supporters their votes. We Labour supporters returned the favour. F the tories and their client media. If you participated, you've helped this country massively!! Well DONE! ✊❤

[@rev.olution583]

LBCs Public Schools kids Party Lost

[@user-gk1nt6sm2z]

Tories with excuses. Colour me shocked.

[@Alex-cw3rz]

Keep in mind Reform had more coverage than the Lid Dems, Plaid, the SNP, all indpendents and Greens combined. Yet got 14% of the vote and 4 seats, where as they got 94 seats and 22% of the vote. Reform at times having equal air time to the tories and labour, there was talk of them being a 3rd party in the debates. This is why reform did so well.

[@David-vn4qu]

They did well because they reflect many people’s concerns.

[@lewis123417]

Reform literally had a higher share of the vote than the lib dems, makes sense that they had so much attention

[@damedusa5107]

@@David-vn4quone concern, immigration. If people actually looked at the manifesto they wouldn’t be interested. Do people really want an nhs private insurance system like France or worse the USA? People who voted for them only listen to sound bites about stopping the boats

[@drcommonsense1]

​@damedusa5107 well said. Reform costs were challenged as highly inaccurate, and they never had a manifesto that explained anything in any detail whatsoever. It was like a brainstorm was put together and they just put it down on paper with some pictures. Reform are not a serious political party. Lib Dems and Greens should be far more coverage than Reform.

[@djh29971]

@@damedusa5107 Disagree. They are trying to address issues which the main parties won't. The NHS is not sustainable in its current form, for example, but Reform are the only party to discuss it. A debate needs to be had because the country is heavily in debt and ultimately cannot afford to give the public what they need.

[@maltesetony9030]

John Curtice is a voice of sanity among all the crazies.

[@burropoco]

01:49 Tactical voting is a big thing. Social media, and modern communications makes it so much easier and more effective than in previous elections. Yesterday I 100% used my vote wisely to keep the Tories out.

[@bigtone718]

well done!👌👍💯

[@yannmaenden7236]

The number of constituencies In England has increased from 533 in 2019 to 543 in 2024, as part of the 2023 Boundary Review. ( -8 seats from Wales and -2 from Scotland ). In England the Labour vote only rose slightly from 34.0% in 2019 to 34.4% in 2024 Their seats increased proportionally from 180/533 ( 37.8% ) to 348/543 ( 64.1% ). Interesting fact: More people in England voted for Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 ( 9,152,039) than voted for Starmer ( 8,353,042 ) in 2024.

[@pureb7235]

The exit poll highly over-estimated Reforms number of seats.

[@FishingFan2]

To put that into context, Lib/Dems polled 3.4 million votes and won 71 seats, Reform polled 4.6 million votes and only got 4 seats. Bring on proportional representation.

[@XAVR_]

​@@FishingFan2 even with PR, Labour would have won.

[@nigelfelton9824]

Curtice did say that he was very unsure about that figure and that it was likely to be fewer

[@JamieTwells]

​@@XAVR_Labour would have been the largest party (assuming no change in voting behaviour) but they would not have had overall control.

[@gredax]

@@FishingFan2 isn't it telling that the reform party got 14% of the vote, generally around 16% is everyone 1 standard deviation below mean intelligence.

[@michaelmouse4024]

Farage gets 4 seats. Lib Dems get over 70... Suddenly he starts quacking on about margins & pr. Didn't bother him about brexit. Hilarious

[@user-ps9fo4qo4r]

And didn't Lib Dem get much less overall votes?

[@SlowhandGreg]

Farage gets endless free publicity on TV, the Lib-Dems have huge numbers of activists getting the vote out on the ground as well as thousands of councillors. quote The Liberal Democrats have just over 3100 councillors across the UK, currently leading 69 councils across England and Wales.

[@colinnewmarch1106]

Look at vote share ,Lib dems got far less

[@lewis123417]

Great turnout for reform, more votes than the most famous third party the lib dems

[@drcommonsense1]

Lol, didn't you know how FPTP works? 😂

[@philipgumm9243]

Sir Keir did his job, he managed to win the election without over promising.

[@julianshepherd2038]

If it isn't I the manifesto then the House of Lords can block it.

[@Shsjier]

​@@julianshepherd2038but didnt the rwanda scheme pass through the house of lords?

[@rb1062]

Yes, the wef in Davos are delighted. Well done, you! 👏

[@In_Paradiso58]

@@rb1062 Lol, watch out for more CONspiracy THEORIES...OUT SOON...

[@rb1062]

@@In_Paradiso58 Yes, I'm a conspiracy theorist because you do no reading or research.

[@chrisfinn1]

[Thought experiment] each Reform seat effectively represents 1M people right now vs each Lib Dem seat representing 50K people! Think about it.

[@SlowhandGreg]

Reform are a protest party with zero structure platformed by billionaire media interests quote The Liberal Democrats have just over 3100 councillors across the UK, currently leading 69 councils across England and Wales.

[@cassandratq9301]

Grim.

[@batcollins3714]

The difference being that Lib Dem voters are intelligent, whereas Reform voters can barely read the express or the mirror

[@SlowhandGreg]

@@batcollins3714 The Lib-Dems have over 3000 councillors and a huge ground game just think what they could have done with the media exposure and boosterism of the MSM

[@michaeladkins6]

You need immigrants unless you plan on picking strawberries, working in the NHS or build the million homes that are needed. Think about it.

[@zhanezar]

John Curtis is a National Treasure

[@Deedeevenice]

Curtice* I am sure you mean!

[@zhanezar]

@@Deedeevenice oops yea sorry

[@decimal1815]

As it currently stands, progressive parties to the left or centre-left got around 6 million more votes than the right and centre right parties combined. The idea that the UK is a right-leaning country is simply not true.

[@thomridgeway1438]

Oh how wrong you are. Fifty percent of Labour's vote is borrowed for now! Don't rely on it next time. I wouldn't if I were you.

[@slowie9999]

Id counter that with saying that the turnout was very low because the people on the right cannot see a point anymore. they voted for tory in 2019 when they said they would stop mass immigration and cut taxes and then did the exact opposite. the support for reform in the working class communities was massive but turning the support from vocal to actually getting them to the ballot box is a massive challange. (for instance 6 of my neighbors were vocally supportive of reform but none of them voted as they didnt think it would matter)

[@FishingFan2]

@@slowie9999 Labour Polled the lowest votes in election history. To put that into context, Lib/Dems polled 3.4 million votes and won 71 seats, Reform polled 4.6 million votes and only got 4 seats. Bring on proportional representation. If there was PR labour wouldn't have won.

[@SlowhandGreg]

@@FishingFan2 Your forgetting tactical voting

[@FactThis]

In addition to the low voter turnout mentioned above, remember not everyone who votes Labour is necessarily left-leaning in every respect. Labour is actually the most popular party among GB News viewers, for example. Some people only vote Labour because of their ties to labour unions. Polling on various issues tends to indicate the public leans to the left economically and to the right socially.

[@Ken-yf8zl]

And silly little Rishi has the audacity to say “sorry”. The problems were staring him in the face and he IGNORED them - and US !

[@DianeD862]

Just look 👀 at Nic face.Need to get rid of him now.Shame on LBC.

[@Edward-cv2gw]

Why ? Who do you want in owen Jones and monroe Bergdorf ?

[@clearspira]

''I disagree with this man. Let's cancel him.''

[@matthewv4170]

​@@Edward-cv2gwQuasi what's his face

[@paulgibbons2320]

They stole Ukips brexit prospectus. Promised action on imigration without delivering. Maybe you should deliver what you promise.

[@nigelhart3897]

What they stole was billions of tax payers money while telling everyone immigration was the cause of the mess the country is in. They didn't fool all of us They belong in jail.

[@marumaru6084]

The tory vote was lost by the actions of the Tories 2.5 million doctors and engineers in 2 years to benefit us all!

[@AndyM_323YYY]

Can someone explain how voting for Farage is the logical reaction to Brexit being a disaster?

[@drcommonsense1]

I blame it on ignorance. You only had to read their manifesto to realise they were heading towards another Liz Truss type disaster

[@royboy565]

They think he will sort the boats out. Problem is what Reform wanted to do was illegal. The tories looked into exactly what Reform say they wanted to do and their lawyers told them it was illegal and against maritime law.

[@AndyM_323YYY]

@@royboy565 That's ironic: Farage has made the problem three times worse and they think he's the cure.

[@ArjunGhag-ix7te]

Love chats by politics professors John Curtice & Matt Goodwin etc

[@andrew300169]

Reform will split the right for a generation 😂

[@amirmxd]

Do you think Reform will win a lot more seats in the next election? They got 4.1 million votes nationally, and came second in 98 seats.

[@mustrumridcully3853]

@@amirmxd As soon as Fartage has to do some real work, he'll bunk off.

[@rosemarykennedy5430]

The Tory Party is centre left at best 😂

[@god1971b]

@@amirmxd No because for all UK's issues I'd like to believe we arent Nazi's.

[@andrew300169]

People who are centrist or left will never vote reform, they may win a few more seats from the tories but the vote won’t ever let them into power, nor the tories for as long as reform exist.

[@vicariousshame]

Tories rot by themselves.

[@WriterGeek]

Aren't the Tories just experiencing what Labour have always experienced - a voting base divided between two or three parties. Plus both LibDems and Labour had a much cleverer electoral strategy. Labour realised they just had to not annoy, or be inclusive of, small c conservative areas and LD as John Curtis says. It may have been an anti-Tory vote but people wouldn't have voted the way they did without being largely ok with Labour. We all need a break, and Starmer seems like a sensible chap, and all that.

[@royboy565]

I've waited years for another right wing party to dent the tories vote base because the left have Labour, lib dems, greens and snp. It's the only reason why the tories have won so many times.

[@J-PoN]

WEATHER WARNING ⚠️ Tory tears set to flood major parts of the south today 🤣🤣🤣🤣 dig out your welly’s 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Tory tears in the comments are priceless

[@Seb_Snufflepuss]

80% of the electorate didn’t vote for Labour.

[@patrickburns574]

67% of the electorate didn't vote for Brexit. Go figure

[@seanpatrick1243]

For once FPP has hurt the Tories. Funny that you weren’t whinging about it in the past.

[@RDHamel]

As I’m sure Mr Curtis realises, if people are voting tactically, that can take votes from a party as well as add to their total. The point is not to get votes, but to win seats. The vote share is only really indicative of people’s preference in a system of proportional representation.

[@coppershark1973]

Hey NICK! WOMP WOMP!

[@dominokid7996]

Borris Johnson you Caaant, He gave Labour a sniff

[@drummingtildeath]

When the tories last wom, everyone said they did well. Labour are only about a point and a half behind having the same vote share but the narrative is that they didn't win

[@latest3dsgames]

Labour vote no enthusiasm will be gone in 3 years

[@royboy565]

176 seat majority means they will not be going anywhere anytime soon.

[@martinsmith6049]

And thus, James O'Brien has nothing to harangue us about.

[@AZhangETH]

Farages legacy: Convinced the nation to vote for Brexit, later admits the country is worse post Brexit, and now has helped secure labour one of the largest landslide victories in history. What a legend!

[@danw5760]

I wish I was as simple as you, every study shows simple people are happier

[@jaxcoss5790]

​@danw5760 Really? Never seen that in any study I have read.

[@bch5758]

Only because the tories were in charge of implementing Brexit - and didn’t really want to

[@royboy565]

It will click with people one day that the Labour Party won because of Johnson's incompetence and brexit which Farage pushed for and has proved to be a massive mistake. Farage has his followers but it's only a minority, hence 14% at this election. Reform will never ever govern the UK.

[@royboy565]

Farage is the dream maker of false hope.

[@gentleeventful]

I'd love to do his analysis of the Olympics. The running.. and the winner is Bolt but he didn't really win. It was just that the other people lost.

[@michaelrandall2070]

At the last General Election Nigel Farage extended a valuable accommodation to the Tories but never was there a return dialogue or thanks. Much of the Tory majority was down to Nigel Farage. Strange not to listen to such a benefactor or have any dialogue whatsoever. The Conservatives are paying the price now.

[@neecierussell595]

Not sure John Curtis analysis is 100% correct

[@garyh5541]

Well Done Reform!!!

[@margaretknight8690]

The Tories will eventually reinvent themselves and return if they can learn the lessons of this disgraceful period in their history. We actually need 2 strong parties in our FPTP system. For now, I am enjoying a Labour government!

[@jonsteadisno1]

Until the Tories stop blaming someone else for their downfall and they accept responsibility for the manifest catastrophic decisions that have led them to this day, they will remain forever lost.

[@ashleyhulme4931]

This is total nonsense we're coming for the big 2 establishment parties I voted Reform UK for the first time I'm in the red wall all the red wall were voting was Labour and Reform the ones who voted Consocialists were latching on to Hope that Boris comes back the Consocialists voters actually split the vote in the red wall

[@TheHeninhardenne]

Undemocratic for the party lib dem to have 18 times more seats than Reform even though reform have more votes. The parliament is unrepresentative of the population.

[@In_Paradiso58]

Gee, the Lib Dems did do well...

[@mustrumridcully3853]

No, this is the system. Whether you like it or not, that's how the system currently works.

[@TheHeninhardenne]

@@mustrumridcully3853 system can be changed. This current system means votes worth more than other depending on your address.

[@nicolaprosser8379]

Labour won , it's the system we have, get over it.

[@mustrumridcully3853]

@@TheHeninhardenne I am not arguing whether it is fair or not. But it is TOTALLY democratic. People voted, people won, others lost. Under the current system it is still democratic. Is it the "most" democratic? Probably not, but we didnt try to overturn Parliament like a bunch of thugs because some people lost and didnt like it.

[@daniellastuart3145]

as much as Reform can say oh many votes they got they only have 5 sits that no oppression against 412 sits

[@Deedeevenice]

What are you going for? 4 “ sets” or “sits”?

[@daniellastuart3145]

@@Deedeevenice typo

[@kellydelf]

the Tories injuries are all self inflicted. reform didn't hurt them they just filled the vacancy. now the other half of the country will find out about their labour party too. nothing has changed.

[@SlowhandGreg]

except planning reform, rail nationalisation, GBEnergy and lower bills, business confidence to invest now the Tory chaos has gone (FT 250 up 1%)

[@kellydelf]

@@SlowhandGreg heard it all before... many times. oh how I laughed at all the deniers claiming they never sang "things will only get better". nothing has really changed. your man is for Davos and woke, not for you. you'll feel like us reform voters soon enough mate especially when the labour backstabbers begin their power struggles. I reckon labour will implode in months. Keir is no leader. maybe the country needs a bit more car crash to wake it up. on a brighter note I'm looking forward to seeing Nigel debate Keir in parliament . we need time to put together a govt anyway. we did as much as you can in six weeks. interesting times.

[@roc7880]

I agree Labour did not win but Tories lost, but he ignores that people who voted for Reform probably would have not voted anyway, so the ratio had been the same.

[@paulhack5577]

It's true what the professor said , as a tory voter for nearly 50 years i switched to reform because of how they let this country down on immigration assault to the UK. I am also pro brexit so reform was the only way for me to change my vote and simply nobody else. I want my country back.

[@royboy565]

Country hasn't gone anywhere. I'll just check. No it's still here.

[@midgemagoo]

When a party gets elected into government by the electorate they are installed there to do the will of the people (all the people of the UK). If Labour were to look at the proportion of votes gained for each party one would think that they would say to themselves something is very wrong here. To level the playing field, so that ALL people are equally represented, we must change the voting system. Would Labour even contemplate this? Never in a million years because their own jobs are far more important to them than the jobs of the people who voted in this country. This is one of the reasons so very many people in the UK do not bother to vote. They feel forgotten by the politicians.

[@royboy565]

It's the same every election. Check history. I want P R but it won't happen within the next 5 years

[@TheMarlinspike]

Ferrari creaming himself all morning about the fascists winning four seats.

[@victoriabrooks7009]

That's what tories get when they put someone in power that knowboby wanted , but the elites , well, the public showed u up 😂😂u deserved every point yous lost 👏 come on nigel lets ruin the way things are done and make it fair for everyone 😊

[@specialized500]

Both of course are true, labour won and tories lost.

[@gentleeventful]

The expert seems to give the impression everybody loves conservative really, but it's only when they're upset with them that anybody else wins. I think he has a strong implication in his analysis that the conservatives are the right party. In this case, labor didn't win the conservatives lost.

[@aob4214]

Absolutely his conservative bias is strong. The Conservatives lost labour didn’t win even those labours vote. She was slightly high than the Tories from 2019 but that doesn’t matter. He didn’t acknowledge the greens. They got four seats he just ranked on about reform getting four seats. All the lip Dems getting in historic 70 seats and that doesn’t matter the Tories didn’t win. Gonna listen to his analysis anymore because he can’t keep his bias undercover. He supposed to be neutral and objective and he clearly isn’t.

[@paulmain2635]

Classic farage disruption with lies. People are kidded by his lies.

[@MrRobit33]

Nic , retire please.

[@coderider3022]

Why use 20 words when you can use 200? Paid per word.

[@martynscott1227]

The Tory foundations were never there, neither from these results are Labours either. Reform are the first party in pro-Brexit, pro-common sense Tory seats and second in Labour red wall seats. The low turnout 58/60% across the country the lowest since 1918 the stagnant Labour percentage vote, the falling Tory percentage vote shows there’s no appetite for either of the Two main Parties!

[@royboy565]

Or for Reform, 14% isn't earth shattering is it?

[@danniwilder2198]

@@royboy565 Le Pen in France had 18% two years ago & now she has 36%. Reform have only been going for 5 minutes, give it another 5, 10 yrs & let's see where we are then.

[@royboy565]

​@@danniwilder2198I'll tell you now.... Nowhere. The tories will regroup, elect a new leader and get back a lot of Reform voters. UK will never vote for a far right party to be in power.

[@royboy565]

​@@danniwilder2198UK will never elect a far right party

[@eddiecalderone]

@@royboy565 Reform is not a far right party

[@iansinclair7581]

So begins sectarianism.

[@DN21Media]

Leading britains conservatives

[@jitendrajoshi786]

Nick Ferrari is so disingenious and pro Tory it is sickening. 😂

[@tictacmac530]

I bet you much prefer James O’Brien 😜

[@RonaldShea5680]

The labour party's grotesque horror show begins.

[@lllordllloyd]

... and they won't get a fraction of the miles if rope the Tiry clown ensemble got. Different set of rules for those not supported by billionaire tax dodgers.

[@jaxcoss5790]

After 14 years of Tory terror, its a relief to get Labour in.

[@SlowhandGreg]

@@banky4943 It has already the Tory government Chaos has stopped

[@Jonnyonthespot123]

What do you base this on exactly? It's a different party from the one 5 years ago and they weren't in power for 14 years.

[@keithattwood59]

Tories have moved left. They moved away from their voting base. Don't blame Reform!

[@Silver-st2zq]

😂🤣🎉

[@lolly9080]

It felt like same old boring labour alongside this exciting new opposition, possibly

[@user-wq6sz7vt3w]

My condolences to the UK RIP

[@Jonnyonthespot123]

Based on what exactly?

[@aphroditeblighty]

Nothing thumping about Liebours results.

[@royboy565]

It is under a fpp voting system. Just like Johnsons. His vote share hardly increased from Mays yet got 80 seat majority. Until we get P R this is what happens on a regular basis.

[@brianferguson7840]

AND THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER !🫣 WELL IT IS NOW !😂 FOR THE TORIES. 🪦