PORTLAND Real Estate 2021: Social Unrest = Housing Crash?

[@ellerivendale3290]

Excessively liberal is understatement. I live in zipcode 97205. It’s way worse than you described.

[@tomlarkin1555]

Great deep dive into the Portland market. I’m in the Bend, OR metro market and we’ve seen incredibly high population growth and 36% price growth in the past year and a 30% increase in rent. We’re getting a huge influx of people from Portland, Seattle and California. This would be an interesting market to do similar video on.

[@wanikkismith4898]

I am a credit risk professional, who has analyzed the Portland, Or market for over 20 years. I think your conclusions are solidly placed on data. And I can vouch from a personal perspective that considering Clark county is a very good move. After 20 years, I am a Californian native who is now moving from Multnomah to Clark County. I believe my quality of life will improve by living in a more stable community as well as a more favorable tax structure. Sadly, this is the case when Multnomah has so much to offer if it weren’t for the government and the unruly/criminal (or “weird” as Portland so proudly states) citizens. Multnomah now has the highest income tax rate in the US and I see it getting higher as voters continue to vote in new taxes rather than demanding their government run more efficiently (as in at least as efficient as private enterprise), or demanding that entitlement programs require able-bodied individuals to be responsible for their own outcomes.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment and insight! Good luck in Clark! It's a beautiful place.

[@mattthorp8205]

"Highest income tax rate in the US" - I like how you completely disregard the tax tripod in this claim. Oregon has no sales tax so relies entirely on the other two legs of the tripod for taxation: real estate (a wealth tax on landowners that Oregonians capped into perpetuity with Measures 5 & 50 in the 1990s) and income tax, which the state and municipalities have to solely rely upon for adjusting tax revenues to keep the government services going, let alone growing, as the government is trapped in a Measure 86 conundrum resulting in tax kicker payments back to the taxpayers when tax revenues are higher than predicted. I disagree with you about Nick's conclusions - he is missing the mark and doesn't even support his arguments with the actual data he's pointing to. While he's certainly done his homework by pulling BLS and Zillow data together in nicely presented charts, the data he uses doesn't show what he thinks it shows. Zillow data only represents average home sales prices. The outlying areas he points to with price appreciation are places where there is available buildable land for new single family home construction, which is primarily completed at higher and higher specs as a builder can get more profit on a luxury home than an average-sized home. As those new higher priced homes are sold, that average price in those areas increases dramatically. Try using the Case-Schiller Index for these types of data analysis. Portland is a tricky market to understand, and his conversation completely ignores Metro's urban growth boundary that strictly limits the available buildable land for increasing housing supply while there is consistently increasing demand outpacing that supply. He points to the urban core as prices have stagnated - there's almost zero houses in that area and there is zero new single family residential development. His argument ignores the fact that condos are taking a beating across the US while people have been working from home desperately seek housing with a yard, and maybe more square footage as they're becoming claustrophobic in their tiny spaces. And, he's claiming "the last crash was caused by rampant appreciation above wages," confusing causation with correlation. Yes, there was a run-up in housing prices - this was caused by lowered lending standards allowing more people to purchase homes without income to pay for those loans. Macro 101: increased demand outpacing supply causes price increases, particularly in price elastic necessity goods like shelter. This kid was just starting college in 2008. This is just an example of loosening money, similar to how a home buyer will look at more expensive housing when interest rates are low as their same income now qualifies them to purchase a more expensive house on the same budget. Another point he's missed in his analysis. I do agree with you that Clark County is a terrific option for many - a great community with strong schools, growing industry, and quick access to all that Portland has to offer. Although, Washington is also completely missing one of its legs of the taxation tripod: no income tax. Your state's real estate and sales taxes have to make up for the lack of balance in that taxation system, which is another hurdle for Washington politics, taxation and governance. Your conservative talking points about able-bodied individualism are a tired trope. How many people who were able-bodied had to rely upon unemployment (which every worker pays for, incidentally) during the pandemic? How many people were left unable to self-fund their health insurance after they lost their job because we've tied the human right to health care to employers and employment instead of providing support for every citizen like every single other developed nation? What are your plans when you retire - are you going to forgo social security and Medicare because you're "able-bodied and responsible for your own outcome"? These are all forms of entitlement programs that all tax-paying Americans fund. Reducing social services and safety-net programs is a direct link to increased poverty and crime, which has been proven over and over again. I would love to see any conservative economic thinktank put together honest valuations for their policy programs (tax cuts for the wealthy, for example) and how they will affect the country's GDP. Hint: trickle-down economics doesn't work, as we've seen the wealth disparity skyrocket and the middle class all but disappear since Reagan enacted this failed policy. And conservatives keep trying to double-down on this policy idea that has no legs. Data also proves that investment in social and safety net programs more than pay for themselves in increased GPD output - think health and social outcomes where people experience increased longevity, mental stability and financial security where they can finally take the risk to go back to school to improve education/career, or can move cities where there is better/more available work, or finally be able to get their mental or physical health taken care of so they can get back to work.

[@wanikkismith4898]

@@mattthorp8205 Yes, I’m very familiar with Case Schiller and some of your arguments. As I said, I’ve been an economic analyst for two decades. Since you directed your comment specifically to me, personally, here is my response to you about me: Yes, of course, I do pay into Social Security and will receive a benefit (perhaps) from my own inputs. I volunteer significant time and money to local non-profits…in fact I am a board treasurer of a local non-profit that provides environmental education to local low-income children so we can create future stewards of nature. I’ve never received any government assistance (not even a student loan even though I was born and raised poor, I worked my way through college) other than the services that we all benefit from - roads, parks, libraries, etc. Moreover, I take care of three elderly parents. And, yes, the Multnomah tax hits me hard and is the highest tax rate in the country for me because I am a now high wage earner, but I don’t spend my money on fancy cars, homes, vacations, etc. I take care of those who took care of me and help the community out as well. So I speak from personal experience. My two sisters are currently unemployed and poor. And this has been their general status throughout their lives. They’ve relied on the government for their housing and income, taking care of their numerous children, while doing nothing to give back to the community other than supporting rioters or whatever the current popular thing to do in Portland that upheaves society. I am an able-bodied individual who didn’t let my circumstances in life justify any reliance on the government for my well being. And I am not a conservative and I may not even be considered white (I’m 1/4 POC). But I’m moving away from Portland and all it’s excessive troubles in which people believe taxes and the government are the answer.

[@bluesky4385]

I left Portland just a few years ago, after living there for many years. I saw where it was going with the rising COL, the civil unrest and all the homelessness. Believe me these issues had been building for years, all these problems didn't just start this past year. I personally question a city with the outrageous issues Portland has. Yet it has such a high COL. That in itself is not making sense. Why would anyone invest such massive sums of money, and buy or rent in that uncertain an environment. All I can come up with is investors that are going to make money for whatever the reason. I can't for the life of me understanding a home buyer or renting wanting to live in Today's Portland. It has become an absolute mess run by complete fools. If today's Portland doesn't impact ones' life, then they must be walking around sedated. Just this week 50 Portland Police Officers abruptly resigned. That in itself is not something to take lightly where one lives. Really how can these homes be going for what they do, when you risk having a homeless camp in front of your home. Really what kind of mindset is buying these properties?

[@mattstark9144]

One reason is it’s one of the cheaper cities on the West Coast sadly. Still expensive, but that’s because the PNW is freaking gorgeous. It’s all about perception and thinking about where people came from before getting to Portland.

[@HoldenMcCash]

Your quantitative analysis is impressive! This quality of research is rare in real estate professionals. Thank you for all the work that you put into these presentations.

[@131313griffin]

Home prices are getting way out of wack compared to wages,but this is happening all over the continent,but 8.5 times is way beyond affordability.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Exactly. Most cities are seeing increases in Price / Earnings, but Portland is on another level.

[@benicia21]

if home prices are out of whack relative to wages, then who are these buyers? presumably buyers are wage earners who qualify for mortgages

[@nikmills]

I bought in Portland's Inner SE in 2009. I planned to stay forever but Portland is so unfriendly I just couldn't take it. You have to be ideologically possessed - Super Woke - or you are shunned. In 2018 I finally sold. I made 66%. Since then that house has gained about another 25%. People who don't need local jobs keep moving there. NOTE: Portland is not for gregarious types or straight men who are not ashamed of being male. The social scene there, like the political climate as Nick points out, is really homogeneous and stultifying if you don't tow the party line.

[@davidpoole409]

This may be your experience but I didn’t experience this at all. Very diverse population go 30 minutes out of the city and you find people super conservative and racist lol

[@bluesky4385]

I forgot to compliment you on your video. It was very well done and very informative. I appreciate you adding your comments, as far as what the politics have done to Portland. As well as how such a dramatic decline in a cities core impacts the entire Metro. Thank You.

[@Zhou-Bo-Tong]

Ted Wheeler said its OK because other big cities have the same problems. I know multiple people that left Portland due to mismanagement of the city. Going to take a different kind of thinking to recover that city. Even before the pandemic I stopped visiting the city center because it was gross and not family friendly. Saw someone just take a shit in front of me on the sidewalk and Portlanders I was with didn't even bat an eye. People living there are absolutely numbed to the environment they created and sustain. I wouldn't even take free real estate there knowing the policies in place.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment! It seems like Wheeler is starting to come around. Hopefully not too late!

[@Zhou-Bo-Tong]

@@ReventureConsulting yeah, it's true Ted seems to of stopped pandering to both sides, but I typically just see Ted pointing fingers and not fixing anything. Ted's lack of leadership likely damaged Portland for decades.

[@miraclemaxicl]

Weak Mayor!

[@rivers8517]

Another great video! I think your channel is significantly under valued judging by your subscribers. I predict a lot of subscriber growth in the future. Keep up the good work. Also I’m looking forward to seeing your Airbnb video and I would love to see a video on rental property in the big Island of Hawaii.

[@ReventureConsulting]

So you're saying my channel is the opposite of the Portland real estate market? ; ) Thanks for the kind words!

[@rivers8517]

@@ReventureConsulting yep and also the opposite of Boise where I live.

[@Realalma]

My best friend lost her Portland Airbnbs this year due to all the chaos in Portland. I wouldn’t go there if they paid me.

[@rzhang70]

Could you do a video like this for phoenix AZ? Thanks

[@goldinero]

People are getting priced out of Clark County too. Last month a house in Battle Ground, WA had a Redfin price of $1.0 M. The owners listed it for $1.425 just for the heck of it and got full asking price within a week. Aside from the benefits of no income tax and ability to avoid sales tax by crossing the border, there's a wide river to separate Clark County residents from a thousand of the Multnomah County, OR homeless living in tents along I-5. Keep up the good work, Kate Brown!

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment Chris!

[@lifeisshort99]

I live in Vancouver Clark county since 2000 and sold Downtown pad in 2019. My old condo is cheaper now.

[@paulross9287]

Great content. Thanks so much.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thank you Paul!

[@richardallen4864]

Nick, appreciate all you do educating and providing the data you research. Thanks!! I have one request, please do a video on Atlanta and the surrounding counties.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Did an Atlanta video a couple months back! Check it out!

[@mpriddy313]

@ 11:45 the ratio of population growth to new permits is discussed as a problem since it matches the ratio of pre-crash 2004. However, the crash of 08' was due to toxic mortgages. Surely current day borrowers are less likely to default? I think the quality of debt should play into the discussion.

[@sohelhussain2689]

All prices have done in Portland metro area since this was posted is they’ve continued to go up. At the end of the day, if there’s no inventory and there’s still plenty of demand, nothing will change.

[@dutn77]

I’m a 43 year native of Portland Oregon, and I have to say it’s gone to hell, there’s tent cities everywhere garbage all around them and graffiti it’s all over the place, The liberal policies are driving it into the ground, I don’t enjoy it here anymore, I’m trying to move to Florida. Bought my house at the end of 2012 for 259k and right now looks like I can sell it for about 550k which I think is a insane housing market, this can’t last

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the local perspective! It's unfortunate that Portland is struggling so much. Florida is great!

[@jeffgilligan2004]

Some additional factors. The property tax bills recently were received by property owners. Even those houses (built before a particular date) protected by the 3% increase limitation, actually increased by about 10% due to voter approved initiatives.The typical maneuver is to claim whatever the vote is really about is that "it's for the kids". The ballot measure then generally passes. That being the case newer homes got tax notices much higher than 10%. As I understand, about half of Portland's voters, are now renters. They vote for property tax increases because they don't see themselves being affected. That percentage has been rapidly growing as more and more multi-storied rental buildings go up, and because there just isn't room to build more individual homes. Fewer high rise condos with owner occupancy are also being built. Since they general population is very liberal, or left of liberal, these voting trends are likely to increase. Only about 20 years ago the mayor was the retired police chief, and his big public announcement was to crack down on jay-walkers. Suffice it to say that Portland now has far greater problems than jay-walking, and that a candidate wearing a skirt with pictures of Mao, Che, etc., almost beat the very progressive incumbent to become mayor. Even though she lost, the city council is still so liberal that it has enacted income taxes that make Portland the most heavily taxed city in the country for higher earners. The inefficient governance, including high public sector pay and benefits, and wasteful expenditures, add to the high cost of basic services (water, sewer, etc.). With all of the problems that now plague the once great city that had often been rated the nation's best just a few years ago, the city council called an emergency meeting to authorize sending $200,000 to a Texas abortion rights group. This was done despite the piles of garbage associated with hobo camps not being picked up. I am happy to report that I sold my long time Portland home for $515 per square foot recently. Had I sold in May, I might have gotten $550 per square foot. I will never own property in Portland or Multnomah County again.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the local insight, Jeff!

[@mikeholt6251]

I’ve lived in Portland metro for 20 years now. My house has doubled in value in 5 years. I don’t understand why anyone would move here though. Downtown looks like a war zone, traffic congestion due to the bridges is terrible and cost of living for basics is Ridiculous.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment Mike!

[@nateb4543]

Downtown may look like a war zone, but that is a small part of the metro area. The leadership in the state and metro area has been abysmal and getting worse. We're closing the sale of our home now (86% higher than purchased 5 years) and mortified about finding a new place and being upside down a year later.

[@mikeholt6251]

@@nateb4543 My wife and I are in the exact same situation. We are really doing our research and trying to find a way to sell our current home (up 98% in 7 years) and then buying in Idaho. Unfortunately, most nice places in Idaho are now more expensive than here in Oregon.

[@nateb4543]

@@mikeholt6251 ya Oregon/Washington is doing to Idaho what California did to Oregon over the last 20 yrs.

[@mikeholt6251]

@@nateb4543 Maybe but it’s been my experience over the last 20 years that Californians moving to Oregon and Washington were liberals trying to escape huge taxes and high cost of living. The migration happening now more feels like conservatives trying to get away from liberals.

[@ChangingTimes1776]

I cannot wait for Sunday’s video!! Thank you for all of your hard work. Great info!!

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks Kristi!

[@smileystevie9662]

Thanks, Nick, for a great analysis of Portland metro OR population and housing market.

[@chadalbright2059]

Seeing lots of California license plates around here. A few from New York as well. We would trade up but the real estate taxes would be too high. Live on the boarder of SE Woodstock neighborhood and houses don’t stay on the market for very long.

[@susanmccall9666]

I am very impressed by the deep dive information that this guy does for his videos. The main thing I would like to point out is that this website is setup for INVESTORS. Want to purchase a house to LIVE in? Buy a house with 3% down. Live in it for 2 years. Not considering the tax advantages for HOME OWNER, the appreciation in the Portland market is currently 15%. So a house that was purchased for $300,000 is now valued at $308075. However the market is so brisk here that this home would now probably sell for much more.

[@janel7284]

bravo and well done. appreciate your use of fundamentals and analytics of data. i'm here and it's madness! :)

[@ai3judy]

Hi Nick, I live in SE Portland Multnomah county now and moving to NE Vancouver Clark county (both renting) next week. Your information/reserch is very useful and I appreciate and look forward to more videos. Like you said, even within the same county a certain area is more desirable and price is going up while downtown is not.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment! Good luck in Vancouver!

[@lukeyoung4441]

One thing I keep thinking about, and I see you doing it in every video, is looking at price to wage and other data pairs currently and then comparing the relationships to the 08 crash. While I do find it an interesting comparison, I don't see you addressing the fundamentally different nature of the bubbles. In 08 prices relative to wages were very high but you also had people putting $0 down and qualifying for loans that had no business being in - this drove rapid appreciation. Currently lending standards are much more strict and there are far more cash buyers on the scene. I'd love to hear you speak on this difference, and why you continually look back at a time period that was fundamentally very different than it is currently. Love your content though. And would very much like for you to be completely right.

[@JeepdudeFL]

If lending was strict they would question appraisals and not loan 50-100K over comps due to bidding wars.🤔

[@lukeyoung4441]

@@JeepdudeFL an interesting point. Though the appraisal situation is interesting, buyers are still constrained by what they qualify for. And if the house appraises for less than the offer, buyers make that up in cash. Banks don't lend over appraisal value.

[@JeepdudeFL]

@@lukeyoung4441 perhaps, but some accurate data will reveal what's really happening. People on commission will do what ever it takes to close deals, so it snowballs once it starts.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Big misnomer: the last housing crash was caused by poor lending standards. The last crash was caused by rampant appreciation above wages. Poor lending standards made it worse. Many cities with low % of supbrime loans got crushed last time. Many cities with high subprime loans didn't.

[@lukeyoung4441]

@@ReventureConsulting What caused the rampant appreciation above wages? Was it not the case that the appreciation was caused by the flood of activity in the market which was in no small part a result of poor lending standards?

[@scottievrandall]

Crystal baller over here! Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow so don't hold your breath. Prices could skyrocket or crash, Realtors can only honestly tell the current market conditions, tomorrow things can change, unforseen, the Real Estate market is always changing, everyday.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Agreed - realtors look at today. Evaluating dynamics such as population growth, permitting, and price/wage ratio attempts to understand what happens tomorrow.

[@aytchroberts5850]

Left Silicon Valley and moved to Camas, WA in 2010. Prices are skyrocketing largely based on low interest rates and California exodus. Great quality of life,

[@ReventureConsulting]

Sounds like a great situation!

[@aytchroberts5850]

@@ReventureConsulting cash flow is a good thing. Thanks to Rich Dad I retired 10 years ago. “It’s a good life!” - Brian Buffini

[@rainrabbit9209]

It is a miss to not mention the Urban Growth Boundary. We (in Portland ) have a UGB, to reduce urban sprawl. It is managed by the regional tri-county overlay government called Metro. Yes, we have city, regional and state governments. The UGB is a line around three counties, where in growth can occur. Outside this line, it is to be maintained as rural. The theory is that we increase density within.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the insight! "Reducing sprawl" often has the nasty side effect of increasing prices.

[@df6580]

Great analysis for housing in Portland

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thank you!

[@bobmorr2892]

I think you're nuts, Portland real estate market is red-hot and it's not going to soften more people want houses then there are houses available. I have been renting the same house in Portland for 19 years it was put up for sale and sold in four days. The people that bought it from California. A few block area in downtown Portland where are the riots were went down a couple of percent in value so what. For every five people that want to leave Portland because they're tired of the problems 10 people want to move in. Part of the reason we have a big homeless problem is because there aren't enough homes to live in.

[@jeffgilligan2004]

Things are still hot in my Portland neighborhood, Laurelhurst. BTW: No violent protests for months after some of the criminals were indicted for arson, etc.

[@jeffgilligan2004]

That written. My house in Portland of 40 years just closed. Moving to my home on Willapa Bay and near Tucson. Nick got Portland like I see it, so I think he is a genius... :-) . I bought in Portland during a bubble at $46 per square foot, it dropped after that, and after my long hold (40 years), sold at $565 per square foot.

[@hillsworth324]

Thank you for such an informative video and all the research you put into it.

[@nateb4543]

I liked what you said about when one political ideology goes unchecked, things can get out of hand. Let Portland be the canary in the cole mine for the rest of the country. I believe the entire political spectrum has shifted left and some beliefs have flipped. Generally, one side has a "you do you, let me do me" mindset (former center/new right) Where they support free speech, 2A, marijuana and gay marriage arent a big deal anymore. The far other side, despite its claims, is no longer tolerant of others. This intolerance is based of ideals or beliefs. When one side is forcing their agenda on the population and the other wants people to be free and left alone, its inevitable that one sids will force out the other i.e. Portland Oregon. The days of hippies and loggers coexisting peacefully are done. It being the first destination for Physician assisted suicide is a perfect example of this dichotomy living together in harmony. Look what its become.

[@alexanderclaylavin]

How does a city's percentage of renters vs. owners affect this affordability calculation?

[@ReventureConsulting]

Great question. Affordability affects owner v. renter % rather than the other way around. Most high renter cities are high coast areas like LA, NYC, and SF. High owner cities are in cheap Midwest areas.

[@jeffgilligan2004]

@@ReventureConsulting - and - the percentage of renters affects how likely ballot initiatives to increase property taxes are to pass. In Portland, they are highly likely to pass. The liberal, and left of liberal, voters see government as the solution to all problems, no matter how inefficient and wrong-headed the local government is in Portland, and vote to increase taxes on the property owners. Put it on the ballot, target they upper-half, and it will pass, no matter what.

[@skcarter2]

Ill pass on Portland

[@KevinNguyen-zn4vv]

The house flippers and the people who bought into the hype that, "houses will become more expensive so buy now" will soon realize that they've made a big mistake. I'm saving up my money for when that time comes.

[@relikvija]

Its a dump If you're not rich, do yourself a favor and stay away

[@mpriddy313]

great plots and graphs!

[@PDXLANDBARON]

It always surprises me how newbies survey the RI sector. I'm a multimillionaire RI investor in PDX. Land for new PDX construction is not available. Oregon and the PDX politically are and have always been anti growth. It is very difficult to build here. Just to break ground cost $600 per linear foot of frontage, this does not include permit, Bancroft and other fees for construction. There are very few housing options here in PDX. There are so many factors that drive housing prices, availability is the most costly. Limited availability driven by anti growth doctrine installed generations ago is the greatest factor for inflated housing prices. Housing choices just is not an option in PDX. You can always rent in inner southeast and dodge a nightly firefight.

[@RobinBuckleyPhotographer]

We live in Washington County. We bought our house in 2016. This information is so valuable. I really appreciate your research.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks Robin!

[@kimcucnguyen1054]

Great info. Thank you!!

[@eds8633]

Just found your channel and beginning to like it very much. Thanks for the data and your insight.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks Ed!

[@mattstark9144]

Maybe, just maybe…it’s not excessively liberal to vote blue in the last election.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Fair point. It's more the comparison against other areas. Multnomah is in a special class in how left-leaning it is.

[@lazaroisern8032]

I just got back from Portland and it's a bit more complicated than you've explained. Portland is probably the most beautiful place I've seen in the U.S and I can well assure you Portland will never be cheap and affordable. If the market bubble brakes you'll have a short window to buy in portland before prices shot up again. This is the history of good location real estate.

[@lurkag2672]

@ER Bl33 The graph presented in this video shows a recovery in Portland that took 7-8 years not 12

[@agates9383]

yeah if you can handle rain for half the year and overcast for most of the rest, many can't handle the gloom

[@BlackdogADV]

Thanks so much!

[@reneeday5271]

Hi I live in Durham( Washington County)I am a long time investor with about 20 properties all Single family dwellings Lake Oswego, Newberg, Tigard, Tualatin and a couple in Salem. Also have an AIRBNB in Laguna Beach Ca. I’ll be looking forward to your next video on AIRBNBs.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment Renee! AirBnB on Laguna Beach sounds very nice!

[@emilywolfe468]

Can you do an updated video on Portland?

[@JapaneseJoinery]

Seeing lots of houses being purchased by people with california plates. Since the pandemic and remote became an option we are seeing more and more bay area tech workers move here. The “local” worker is not really relevant.

[@parryhooper]

Your theory is wrong in 97204. That place always sucked and it's where homeless camps have set up during covid.

[@chaoyishih8324]

this is another great video, but i really thought you'll be doing video related to one of those 5 cities you mentioned on previous video, which kinda connect it together

[@ReventureConsulting]

Still need to hit some bigger cities first!

[@rafaeldinizsantiago1973]

Thanks for the great vídeo and analysis!! Do you have plans to do the same analysis at Ann Arbor - Michigan? Thanks.

[@MrWphilips]

I am very interested in your analysis of the economics at work in Clark County/ Las Vegas. I appreciate your in -depth work, great stuff. Thank you.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Did a Vegas video a month or two back! Check vid history!

[@neejain2012]

@@ReventureConsulting - Hi Nick, I too am interested in a refresher video on Clark County, NV. The Las Vegas video you did two months back is awesome but the RE prices in Clark county have gone off the rails since your post.

If you work in Oregon but live in Washington, you have to pay Oregon income tax.

[@KevinNguyen-zn4vv]

I threw the idea down the toilet after hearing about the double whammy from co-workers living in WA side.

[@davidpoole409]

What really how does that work?

[@onniegranados8489]

I've lived in Portland since 2000, used to visit family here on and off since at least 1981, and there was not one thing in your video that I disagree with. I think you're (alas) right on, and as for my own experiences/anecdotes/etc -- My parents bought a house in Portland (Multnomah Village area) in 1990, for around $80K. Yup, $80K. My sister was living close by in a house she and her (now ex) husband bought for $55K back in the 80's. Which sounds like a great deal, but considering the wages my sister and her husband were making at the time (and they both had decent jobs), and the fact they were paying over 12% interest on their mortgage (!), that was "affordable" for Portland back then. When my parents passed away, we sold his house for around $285K (late 2014, early 2015), a bit below "market" price because the foundation needed work; a developer purchased the house, did a pretty major remodel, and sold it later in 2015 for $699K (!). When my wife and I bought our house in the "Felony Flats" area (seriously) of Portland back in 2008 (I thought it was 2010), pretty much right after the crash, we were looking at houses and watching them sit on the market for months, and watching the prices come down $10K ... $20K ... $30K ... anyway we bought at the "bottom" of the market, and according to Zillow, our house has increased in value 150% in the past dozen or so years. Great for us, not so great if you were just starting out and trying to buy a place in PDX. I've been working over twenty years in tech support, I make a decent salary, and there is not a house in our neighborhood offered for sale at less than 6X my gross income right now. And we're in the cheap seats! It's crazy out there.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thank you for the personal perspective Onnie! Much appreciated!

[@onniegranados8489]

@pdmrocker I completely understand your frustration with the (insane) housing market, but if you let yourself get too caught up in the "I was born at the wrong time" mindset ... well, that's a path to madness. Looking back, I'm certainly fortunate that I was at a certain place in a certain time with a certain $$$ so we were able to get our house, but at the time other people thought we were nuts -- "You're buying a run-down house in a terrible neighborhood!" Now I have a lot of experience working on houses and doing mechanical work, we could never have afforded to pay to have somebody else do all the work we've had to do to make a go of things. So we've been very lucky, but we've had to work like heck, too, and -- I really believe this -- if you work hard, listen to people who have been there and done that and share all their hard-earned experience with you (like this channel!), and hang in there, great things will happen for you!

[@robifleming]

I live in Washington county. In the process of selling a house and will be renting and watching the market like a hawk. I don’t want to buy now.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Good luck!

[@eduardoperez5437]

Could you please do another video on portland

[@saulcha1]

Sad , takes some shooting and looting to keep away the vulture developers and not end up homeless and on the streets , would be interesting to see the percentage of how many people actually own their homes in these declining areas !

[@chargerboy2222]

Urban growth boundary

[@ca6360]

Of course institutions wanted it pennies on the dollar

[@spikesmth]

I was very interested in this analysis until you go into "lack of law and order." Certainly, in Summer 2020, this was a real thing, in the narrow geography you pointed out. But this video was released a full year after all of that (arguably justified) nonsense. I know several people in the area and life is normal, the protests are long gone, and Portland is a desirable place to be overall.

[@caveman369]

How does your analysis translate further down the I-5 corridor, specifically Salem and the Marion county area - which is actually surrounded by what you identify as the Portland metro area?

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment, Kevin! I'm not sure on these areas off the top of my head, but will make sure to include if I do a future Portland video.

[@Beans-sq4bd]

Great video

[@Beans-sq4bd]

I feel like they are getting ready for the new world order where everyone rents and owns nothing.

[@truthlove1114]

Can you do Orlando Florida?!!!!

[@ReventureConsulting]

Yes! On the list and will happen soon!

[@JohnDoe-np3zk]

As you point out, the state of WA while oppressive at least holds some hope of law and order vs. homeless camps. I wonder how many homeless camps are in Vancouver WA maybe more than I want to know. Here in Klickitat County we have open conflict between the sheriff and the DA and health dept. and county commissioners. Right vs. left and the corvid thing and maybe fighting for the constitution?

[@CatalinaDriver72]

If only donkey or elephant is in consideration it is not right, no matter which side it is, because it is too narrow and too extreme, and hence too easily manipulated by politicians.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Agreed!

[@ChrisGovert]

Great video, as someone who lives in the Portland Metro area I found myself nodding and agreeing. As someone who is considering leaving to the Boise area, do you think the Portland housing bubble will last longer than the Boise one? This is not for investing but for home buying, moving my family. I know you mentioned in your other videos that Boise will be the first bubble to crash, but how do you think that will effect Portland or surrounding major cities?

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment! I think Boise is in the biggest bubble in America that is already showing major cracks. Check out video history.

[@adrianaguilar1342]

I think the cities were cherry picked . The only city I recognize with is the major city, Portland. In my opinion he should have picked all major cities to compare like Dallas , Vegas Boise or something. He seems biased to me. Unrest comes with low unemployment . We’re at a high unemployment rate right now . I would bet there is a high unemployment rate in Oregon in general. When I lived in Salem I remember wages being very low for construction Managment positions and ultimately that pushed me out of the state. I think this Chanel’s host is biased to right and is just trying to push it on us. I would prefer not to hear this biased stuff on here too. It’s all over the place.

[@rickleopold2087]

Bend, OR is a gorgeous lifestyle oriented city 160 miles southeast of Portland. Starter houses there are OVER $400,000. Nick, can you comment on Bend?

[@ReventureConsulting]

Don't know much about Bend off the top of my head. Will look into it!

[@paulross9287]

Newsweek magazine had it on their cover shortly before the 2008 crash as the most overpriced market in the nation. It took an enormous hit when the 2008 crash hit.

[@rickleopold2087]

@@paulross9287 Paul and Nick, I bought a rental in Bend in 2000 and paid about $112,00. By 2006 it had increased in value to around 280 or 290.. It then CRASHED in value to about 110. Today, Zillow's estimate shows its value at 450k. This is a starter house of 1,120 square feet. Bend is a major "Zoomtown", but the values there have been a historical yo-yo. Part of the constraint for adding housing supply are the Oregon land use laws. While I appreciate how they are designed to contain sprawl, in Bend they have not expanded them nearly enough to meet the need for residential construction. Also, many former rentals have been turned into vacation rentals, removing housing supply for full time residents. What an odd combination of factors!

[@yazminclarke8675]

When you say the US average are you taking LA an NY into account? Which are the highest

[@sheilagibson982]

Well, who would want to live there?

[@RamseyNick]

Portland is super cheap compared to LA…

[@miraclemaxicl]

It's also nothing like LA

[@lurkag2672]

It's still the cheapest of the big name west coast cities. I love all the conservatives sitting in the middle of some shitty state like Oklahoma acting flabbergasted that people would dare pay more to live in a better place.

[@sonics5070]

Vote for Conservatives into the Office if you want to get rid of crimes and homelessness. This isn't about democrats or republicans. Do it for the health of the city and the state.

[@videogarage9221]

Any video or comments regarding the CA central coast area (San Luis Obispo, Arroyo Grande, Nipomo, Santa Barbara) ?

[@LW-fp9qj]

We are looking for the place to retire within 5 years. Could you recommend some places? l think it should have good medical facilities. And easy to rent out since we did not retire yet. Thank you very much.

[@realpilBMF]

Go to KZbin channel “World According to Briggs”. He does tons of affordable retirement videos

[@YoniNadi]

You should look into the Provo-Orem,Utah area; I read a list of the best cities to retire in in the country regardless of the weather ; and sunny Florida didn’t make that list! That information was from a few years ago but probably hasn’t changed that much.

[@LW-fp9qj]

@@YoniNadi I see. Thank you very much.

[@LW-fp9qj]

@@realpilBMF Thank you very much.

[@AngelRamirez-er2fq]

Can you do a video on Fresno Ca

[@ReventureConsulting]

Added to the list!

[@Beans-sq4bd]

Can you do Longview, WA

[@ReventureConsulting]

Unfortunately that market is a bit too small to cover in one of these videos!

[@Beans-sq4bd]

@@ReventureConsulting I understand that, maybe if there is enough data, you can do Cowlitz County? If not I understand. Thank you Nick!

[@vannguyencardinalpointinve9640]

Hello, I am around Portland area, where should I buy in the State of OR and WA?

[@thomascimino6337]

When are you going to run a video for CA, it’s a huge market and I believe your subs would benefit.

[@ReventureConsulting]

"Best and Worst Real Estate Cities in California" coming soon!

[@eoz27]

I moved to Portland in 2013 when I started high school. It’s so expensive it’s just impossible to start out your adult life here. There are a lot of jobs and good opportunities but you can find that in a lot of other cities which don’t have as big of social problems. I’ve been so frustrated with how our local government has handled covid, the out-of-control homelessness problems, the crime, and the social unrest. It’s really unbelievable. I would consider myself a liberal but the people that live here are really intense, very very far left leaning and if you disagree with ANYTHING you will be ostracized for sure. I am looking in to moving somewhere else. And most of the people I’ve been friends with have moved away because of these issues

[@jwlove66]

Basically becoming Detroit 2.0

[@ReventureConsulting]

Interesting comparison!

[@davidpoole409]

SO wrong. Detroit was destroyed by over building freeways and bankrupting the city as all the wealthy people left for absurdly cheap suburbs. Portland is the exact opposite we have an urban growth boundary your comparison here shows how little you really know.

[@jerrymelgoza4358]

All of this information was great and the idea of the housing bubble in Portland is spot on. However, since I live here I have to address the logical leap of how having mostly democrats leads to social unrest and crime. If that were even remotely based in fact then we'd see the same things happen in the deep-south where everyone votes overwhelmingly republican. Where is that monolithic communities social unrest? That's just equating 2 random statistics to fit a narrative. The social unrest is due to unchecked continual increases of spending in Police budgets year after year. Many of the millions of dollars that could go to the public and city infrastructure instead get spent on police. I'm sure you are aware that spending more on policing does not actually reduce crime, but cutting social programs/ cutting school funding/ increased homelessness due to rising housing costs, etc does in fact increase crime. If more police spending reduced crime then we wouldnt see rising crime numbers alongside rising colossal police budgets. It would be interesting if you showed statistics of increased police budgets coinciding with increasing crime numbers. Police budgets have ballooned in the past 10 years to where cities spend more on law enforcement than some countries spend on their military. Portland, in many ways, is a police-state. Eventually if you cut enough social programs to instead spend on arresting people it's going to lead to social unrest; revolutions against police-states are inevitable and happen continuously throughout hundreds of years of history in almost every instance this happens. No amount of polarity in the political ideology of a city leads to social unrest and crime. It's really unfortunate, and just a absolute weak argument that you equated the two. Furthermore, crime is up in all major cities because the wealth gap is the largest it's been in decades. Simply put, no one has money, especially after the pandemic, and when people are broke and hungry they tend to do drastic things and commit crimes. So many things we know that go into reducing crime numbers, not a single one is increasing the police presence. In fact, the amount of spending that major U.S cities throw on Law Enforcement instead of spending it on its citizens, IS A BUBBLE. The police budget bubble is going to pop in a few years, and cities will finally be free to spend millions of tax dollars to actually make their cities better, not their police. Fun Fact: all throughout the "social unrest" summer of 2020, protesters never actually burned down a single building. These anarchists are not arsonists lol they have no clue how to burn down an entire building.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment Jerry! Lots of misinformation out there about the role of the police. If you look at a 2016 study from Obama's Council of Economic advisors you'll find that expanded police presences reduces crime: "Expanding resources for police has consistently been shown to reduce crime; estimates from economic research suggest that a 10 percent increase in police force size decreases crime by 3 to 10 percent." obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/04/23/cea-report-economic-perspectives-incarceration-and-criminal-justice

[@adventurebabyboomer7318]

Generally speaking, people don't want to be affiliated with that type of social unrest vibe. It just doesn't feel good. Regardless if you live in the inner city. Very homogenous population and political affiliation.

[@Natalis7]

I live in Portland. I live close to the “social unrest”. That was 3 city blocks downtown. Housing prices have been going crazy for two simple factors. The zoning laws (which just got updated) and influx of new residents from richer areas. I wish the social unrest caused prices to drop. It’s bad shit crazy right now. Also I grew up here. I’m 35 now and trying to buy a house. I make $75k/year and it’s not easy to find a decent house.

[@MrMitchellmitchell]

Still waiting on that crash

[@ReventureConsulting]

Thanks for the comment, Mitchell!

[@cheesesandwich1033]

I would love a housing crash in Portland! I got money on the sidelines and ready to go to invest in a rental property. I’ve been watching the market for months and no good deals in the area I’m interested in (Forest Heights, Bonny Slope and north Beaverton).

[@ReventureConsulting]

Patience is a virtue!

[@bingosunnoon9341]

This is mostly BS

[@jf8461]

"whatever is bad for house flippers and real estate speculators is good for working-class Portlanders."

[@tunafishjoe]

Many working class Portlanders are employed by house flippers and local investors...

[@tamilve]

You say the problem is liberal and then say it is not the problem to be liberal. wonder how this is in some super right wing areas where the issues are under the carpet! You also have the option to pick and choose where you can blabber about your political opinion

[@waynecmontgomery]

If you're moving from New York City to Portland your right at home with crime. And as a Republican Trump gave the country just one choice and those of us who live in reality can't follow that kind of nonsense. I.E, when most of your cabinet is facing indictment, that's not a good thing.

[@peteybrian]

Property values have gone up in the Portland region over the last 10-20 years in large part BECAUSE of the politics of the region. I’m from San Francisco - many of my friends have relocated to Oregon - because of it’s politics and because it’s way cheaper than California.

[@holson2112]

These rioters are great people!😅

[@DANN-wd7do]

I moved from California and bought in Gresham because of water, which will become more and more valuable as climate change rises.

[@PhilJohnsonlive]

As a person who lives in Portland I dont think political monoculture is the problem. The has been massive wealth inequality in the city for years and a lot of reluctance from city government to do much about it. The protests are definitely directly connected to economic suffering and a culture of wealthy people and tourists lookin the other way. A sign of what’s to come nationwide.

[@andrewsalterhobart]

you give too much credit to the unrest in causing decline in downtown. there has been an increase in crime in all sorts of places, because of the recession caused by covid. downtown portland was already a little dicey in terms of crime and desirability, well before covid.

[@ReventureConsulting]

Fair points. Portland crime has been increasing for a while now!

[@scottievrandall]

Ask an honest local Real Estate broker to get the real scoop on the market. This guy obviously does not live here in the Portland area.

[@rileychu4489]

bad take on the political side...if you are that conservative you cant even see why people are rioting then i dont feel bad about unsubscribing. you literally related the 2008 housing market crash to liberalism lol like wtf are you even talking about.

[@cascadiaadvancedmanufactur2034]

@@philipconklin2830 ahhh your critical thinking and listening skills have triggered me. Call the whambulance!

[@dannychmykhalov8791]

Go to Portland downtown and see for yourself.