Post-Modern Monetary Theory

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Unlike in January, investors’ rate-cut expectations now appear to be in sync with FOMC members’ projections. Both seem to be anticipating two or three 25-basis-point cuts over the coming months. … Whether the apolitical Fed might time its rate cuts with any consideration for election-year politics is unclear, but we list some political considerations that it might be weighing if so. … Also: We explain the theoretical framework we use to forecast the economy. For lots of reasons, we are not proponents of Friedman’s Monetarism or Kelton’s Modern Monetary Theory, favoring instead what we call “Post-Modern Monetary Theory.”

[@Mark-tm2zu]

Ed you are one of best Guru’s of interest rates and yield curves. I hope the Fed will move at least once May to July. I hate there is such a political influence when they are supposed to be non-partisan. Glad I am retired with high rates though.

[@sonicwave02]

Guru of rates? He wasn't able to predict the turn in october....in fact he almost went bearish. He's just like the rest of us. He relies on the fact that markets rise 75% of the time so is heavily bullish which by definition will be correct

[@debbest8546]

Ed, thank you. You remind me of my late father and you are a great economist.

[@188goh]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts

[@noraparsons6463]

Great show, thank you .

[@MJLU280]

The bull bear ratio way too high. Due for a sharp correction

[@user-yx2ex2od9l]

Max Rocks! I just put on over $100 of gas in my vehicle and my auto insurance went up $200 per month with no accident claims. If we get several interest rate cuts, prices will continue to sky rocket. Real life costs for average people are very expensive.

[@kp2718]

Love the rigourous analysis, the personal stories, only sometimes get confused how the email posts are kinda highlighting warning signs, while the QnA remains very optimistic about the markets. I do am able to make sense out of that - how the newsletter's job is to be more conservative while QnS more speaking from the heart, but.. it can be confusing. Am I figuring it out all right?

[@smithbrady6173]

Great love it !!

[@Long_Tail_of_Finance]

Looks like you had Powell wrong re: his presser comments.

[@nonexistent5030]

If you ask me it looks like we're gearing up for inflation round 2 where rates go higher than 5.5% and the raising costs cannot be passed on to consumers. Overlevered businesses get destroyed. I obviously know nothing though...

[@pauljcomp6621]

MAX!