Inflation Heading Toward Soft Landing
32:38
Post-Modern Monetary Theory
37:06
3 ай бұрын
‘Pent-Up Exuberance’
36:57
4 ай бұрын
Powell’s Inflation Nightmare
34:25
Пікірлер
@bombasticlove76
@bombasticlove76 12 сағат бұрын
Invest in the financial markets before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth
@mohamedali-fj8xz
@mohamedali-fj8xz 12 сағат бұрын
I feel sympathy for our country, low income people are now suffering to survive yet inflation and recession keep increasing daily, many families can't even enhance the good cost of living anymore. You've helped me a lot Sir Brian! Imagine I invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
@ufuksenol2005
@ufuksenol2005 12 сағат бұрын
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
@PineHosting
@PineHosting 12 сағат бұрын
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
@nandojuace
@nandojuace 12 сағат бұрын
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
@LolMan-qy9cc
@LolMan-qy9cc 11 сағат бұрын
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
@billsweet6261
@billsweet6261 21 сағат бұрын
Appreciated a very good presentation! Good job!
@BitsOfInterest
@BitsOfInterest 22 сағат бұрын
32:58 legal immigrants don't even qualify for any government assistance for the first 5 years after entry, so not sure how you'd "take advantage" of any social safety net. If you'd want to do that you'd move to Europe where the safety net is much stronger, don't kid yourself.
@mmreigh
@mmreigh Күн бұрын
from a point of view of technical analysis, the fractal of the unemployment climbing in 2022-now seems larger and broader than 2008. could mean something or nothing, but mathematically it would appear to have significance...
@Mark-tm2zu
@Mark-tm2zu Күн бұрын
Thanks for comments. I think the Trump presidency will cause massive inflation and deficits. He said he will keep Powell in place till 28, but we will see. Project 2925 wants to eliminate the Fed reserve and dual mandate. They Also want to deregulate many industries which may be positive in short run but a disaster long-term. I always Liked your roaring 20’s thesis, but I think Trump will be terrible for our economy!
@KuzCast
@KuzCast Күн бұрын
Amazing how few views this channel gets for such great information. I guess everyone else is institutional and watching live on Monday.
@projectedenable
@projectedenable Күн бұрын
Completely agree but our young buck here has to train himself to not say "uuuhm" so much. Friendly constructive criticism only, I promise.
@ttuck9603
@ttuck9603 2 күн бұрын
Appreciate the update - very insightful!
@chessdad182
@chessdad182 2 күн бұрын
When have the Republicans reigned in spending? LOL. Forgetting Reagan's "Deficits don't matter". Quiz question for the day. The last US President with a balanced budget. And for four years!.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 күн бұрын
The major budget items are enormously popular. Social security, Medicare, Defense Graphs of defense spending as a fraction of GDP (if I’m remembering correctly what metric I was looking at) show a huge spike in Reagan years. It was probably defense spending that increased deficits during his presidency
@Mr.Eeeeeeeee
@Mr.Eeeeeeeee Күн бұрын
Trump will supercharge inflation with more tax cuts and implementation of tariffs.
@zipper1209
@zipper1209 2 күн бұрын
Where is Ed?
@harrypotcha0283
@harrypotcha0283 5 күн бұрын
You missed an important change in the economy and stock market while being on holiday in Scotland and now you're going to be sick for at least one week. Why behave exactly the same as the entire pleb and go for vacation when the weather is great in your hometown?
@har8397
@har8397 6 күн бұрын
Lol ... when everyone is greedy, be fearful
@MrCockFiesta
@MrCockFiesta 7 күн бұрын
I love Ed's optimism, which usually proves to be right. But unemployment can have momentum like other things and it can snowball very quickly
@martinross6416
@martinross6416 7 күн бұрын
Yardeni talks to asset holders who are making out like bandits in this inflation.
@martinross6416
@martinross6416 7 күн бұрын
Don’t worry be happy!
@JK-zw8ec
@JK-zw8ec 7 күн бұрын
Very informative.
@c.c.24
@c.c.24 8 күн бұрын
You said AI will increase productivity for the next 10 years but it will replace a lot of jobs as well so unemployment will dramatically rise. Do you still see bull market even though unemployment is high due to AI?
@ericfrith6358
@ericfrith6358 8 күн бұрын
Bass voice 🐟 ?? Thanks for the insights!
@jmwSeattle
@jmwSeattle 8 күн бұрын
You don’t explain your charts very well . They can hardly be seen on a cell phone screen. A larger pointer would be nice.
@franciscoa242
@franciscoa242 8 күн бұрын
You have 8x zoom on KZbin app. Choose high definition.
@marcfd3756
@marcfd3756 8 күн бұрын
It's hard to believe you have less than 9,000 subscribers! I don't necessarily agree with all of your views, but greatly appreciate your invites! Thanks for doing this every week. Much appreciated.
@Mark-tm2zu
@Mark-tm2zu 8 күн бұрын
Ed-better get your Covid test.
@reninj
@reninj 8 күн бұрын
I couldn’t resist reading this title… it is a bull market until it is not and I will tell you when it ends 😂
@MonteRosa849
@MonteRosa849 8 күн бұрын
Fantastic post,Eric! You folks always give us the data that is the most useful and valuable! Thank you very much!
@tknapp
@tknapp 8 күн бұрын
Wisdom and experience speak for themselves. Thanks Ed for you sharing both of those. 🙏🏻❤️
@MonteRosa849
@MonteRosa849 8 күн бұрын
Ed most definitely is a Hall of Famer! He knows how to separate the wheat from the chaff! Thank you very much for your wisdom.
@dwaleka
@dwaleka 9 күн бұрын
Let your profits run! I wish I had listen to you a year ago :(
@douglash.8862
@douglash.8862 8 күн бұрын
Yes,. Markets Go, way, WAY Further, than Most people Think,.. in Either, Direction ! I've been "Holding" My CEF /ETF's for, 2 1/2 to, 3 YEARS, Now and, the Cap Gains & Dividends,. ARE,.. Piling Up ! Almost to, the Scary Point ! BUT, I'm NOT Selling,.. YET !!! Ed Yard, Jeremy Seigel, and Tom Lee are, ALL still,.. "Bullish" !!
@gyrate98
@gyrate98 8 күн бұрын
Only losers try to time the market.
@barnahardwick5722
@barnahardwick5722 9 күн бұрын
I would work for free for Mr. Yardeni........He is that good.
@danieloconnor548
@danieloconnor548 9 күн бұрын
Ed thanks for your wise talk and take care
@pauljcomp6621
@pauljcomp6621 10 күн бұрын
Max! Feel better. Good points as usual.
@konradpekala___
@konradpekala___ 12 күн бұрын
I'm quite sure if the cold-voice stayed here, it would a boon for the views;)
@volkerm.4858
@volkerm.4858 13 күн бұрын
You look younger in this video, Mr. Ed 😂
@MrCockFiesta
@MrCockFiesta 15 күн бұрын
Analysts/economists are in 2 camps after the Friday report. Camp 1 is labor is breaking and the fed is playing with fire. Camp 2 (like Yardeni) is labor is still growing but slowing and rates can stay here indefinitely. Once unemployment starts rising historically that leads to a recession so Ill side with camp 1 on this one
@ttuck9603
@ttuck9603 16 күн бұрын
Great update! Amazing add to staff - rock star!
@pauljcomp6621
@pauljcomp6621 16 күн бұрын
Nice job Eric. Good hire Ed. Eric, you need a dog.
@chessdad182
@chessdad182 16 күн бұрын
I was wondering who he was. I didn't see his name mentioned.
@maciejs5763
@maciejs5763 16 күн бұрын
Many central banks raised rates together with FED and they already started dropping them. ECB cut rates... Canada cut rates... Switzerland cut rates same as China, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary... Why would anyone think that FED would not cut in this year?
@maciejs5763
@maciejs5763 16 күн бұрын
15:05 aaand unemplyoment ticked up to 4.1%. You are really optimistic researchers. We have so so many signs like: 1) inverted yield curve for long time 2) unemployment going up (yes, from low levels, but look at the trend and hiring freeze) 3) autloans and credit cards defaults raising (yes, from low levels, but look at the trend, why would trend change?) 4) overall credit action from private banks halted 5) major slowndowns in other global economies (China, Germany) 6) recent drop in ISM... Of course none of those things guarantee recession and for sure none of them are saying anything about timing. But sirs, there is far bigger risk of recession in US right now when compared to 2 years ago. You can laugh as much as you want from those doomers from 2021, but situation slowly changed, why you chose to ignore it? Im looking at the same data as you and have totally different conclusions. Right now gov. bonds are looking more attractive than stocks, specially with lower inflation and still high yields.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 16 күн бұрын
They notice everything that is line with their previous predictions and downplay what isn’t.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 16 күн бұрын
The bulk of the disconnect between those who think the economy is very strong right now and those who disagree is probably the enormously unfair impact of inflation. Take the disposable personal income chart, figure 8. It shows inflation-adjusted disposable income as being flat over the past four years. So, since true inflation was higher for lower income earners than for higher income earners because necessities inflated more than other stuff, the reality is that higher income earners have seen an increase in real disposable income while lower income earners have seen a decrease in real disposable income. Now that a large number of lower income earners have stopped trying to maintain previous spending habits that are now unsustainable for them, we will begin to see whether their reduced spending decreases incomes of some higher earners.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 16 күн бұрын
The fact the official overall inflation stats for the economy at large are such big underestimates of the inflation actually experienced by people who spend almost everything on housing, car, health care, and food more than makes up for the misleading data saying that real wages increased for low earners. Well, sure, when we adjust for inflation incorrectly on low income earners as we for some reason insist upon doing. So I tell myself, we’ll, low income earners weren’t driving the economy in the first place and feel like economy wide numbers will keep looking good since low earners have ALREADY been left far behind by decades of Reaganomics. Then I counter to myself that these low personal savings rates indicate that when things get a bit worse for some people, rather se people simply saving less, they will have to actually spend less, meaning that hardship experienced by some might be more likely to spread thru the economy than expected
@markpiersall9815
@markpiersall9815 16 күн бұрын
All good points. The Transportation Index appears to be barking as well.
@maciejs5763
@maciejs5763 16 күн бұрын
@@SigFigNewton and @markpiersall9815 we are all aligned. There are signs of economic weakness and as private banks credit action YoY is lower than inflation then I do not see how those negative trends (in full time employment, credits, defaults, unemployment, cyclical economy etc) would stop or revert. Those trends are also NOT linear. They are starting slowly only to explode rapidly. It is easy to see when anyone would look at unemployment data from last 80 years: 1) unemployment is good times SLOWLY going down (May 2020 - Mar 2022) 2) during economic overheating is staying FLAT (Mar 2022 - Jul 2023) 3) during economic slowndown which is going up a SLOWLY and so far always those slowndowns are changing to recession that is why Sahm rule was created (Jul 2023 - up to now) 4) during recessions unemployment unemployment is going up SUDDENLY Between point 3 and 4 there can be as little as 3 months, but right now is already 12 and it can change to 20 months even. Because of BLS data revisions we are also blind for additional 3 months, so we can be even in recession right now and we would figure out it in October.
@Mark-tm2zu
@Mark-tm2zu 16 күн бұрын
President Biden, Fed Chair Powell and Yellen deserve more credit in turning this economy around since 1/21! Everyone keeps expecting A recession that has not happened! There needs to be more analysis on how bitcoin impacts the economy! It is an invisible monetary item that is not discussed in the money supply.
@gyrate98
@gyrate98 16 күн бұрын
We’re all doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
@kp2718
@kp2718 17 күн бұрын
As per the chart that indicates expeted FFR changes in 12 months isn't it surprising that both times the number stopped going down (into more cuts), it was in accordance with trendlines from early 24 - wouldn't that meant those futures' indicators at those moments are more indications of algos' work rather than the most likely scenario probability?
@kp2718
@kp2718 17 күн бұрын
Hi, def. a great one. I see only inconsistency - why keep the 5400 target, apart from consistency/moderation, if you do predict or indicate in data (both of market predictions and your most likely EOY 2,6% PCED scenario) more than 1 cut and therefore a melt-up (around 20:20)?
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 16 күн бұрын
Cuts wouldn’t necessarily send the market higher
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 16 күн бұрын
Likely that cuts are already priced in, and rather than cuts causing shares to rise, their absence would cause them to fall
@simonepecoretti3690
@simonepecoretti3690 19 күн бұрын
looking at all the job mkt indicators and past dynamics it looks much more likely that the path forward is for an acceleration in weakness unless we gat further fiscal boost
@eg4933
@eg4933 20 күн бұрын
people forget about dreaming about lower rates. They're generally going higher from now on because of all the problems and printing to money to pacify those problems. Increasing inflation+generally increasing rates are the future!
@gen-X-trader
@gen-X-trader 22 күн бұрын
You guys ever talk to people who make less than 500k a year? Because the wealthy can handle these rates. they even benefit from them. The working class, more homeless people everyday. Can't get a home. Can't afford a car. Whole economy is built on low rates
@billsweet6261
@billsweet6261 22 күн бұрын
Great job, Eric! Enjoyed the presentation!
@Mark-tm2zu
@Mark-tm2zu 22 күн бұрын
I do not understand why you have not revised targets when earnings keep increasing at this point and no recession forecast. Ed was bullish beginning of the year at 5400, but this was reached already mid-year. I agree there could be a pullback but I am thinking we will be higher than now. Cisco is not really comparable to NVDA.
@MrKanjidude
@MrKanjidude 23 күн бұрын
Thank you for keeping that calm long-term perspective, free from doom-mongering and clickbait takes.
@dwaleka
@dwaleka 23 күн бұрын
Definitely a melt up as there are no buyers for LT treasuries…
@DudeEsq
@DudeEsq 23 күн бұрын
Fantastic video. Very knowledgeable about a wide variety of subjects and quite measured. My only critique is if you’re using late-‘90s valuations as your primary analog to conclude it’s not too bad now, you should acknowledge you’re way out on a limb with respect to historic valuations. Having said that, somewhat higher valuations make sense because Apple and Google are much better businesses than Exxon and AT&T and deserve higher valuations. Looking forward to your next video.
@william719
@william719 23 күн бұрын
Great job and thanks for the video.
@user-yx2ex2od9l
@user-yx2ex2od9l 23 күн бұрын
Thanks. Always look forward to your weekly analysis.
@robertsturm
@robertsturm 23 күн бұрын
Informative longer term perspective on market valuation. Thanks!