Post-Mortem: Tornadoes, Derecho Wreak Havoc in Oklahoma - February 26, 2023

[@Sante1035]

What a wild night! Glad you are safe. There were spin ups everywhere.

[@peachxtaehyung]

Yeah there were! I had a feeling it would be crazy cuz of how much shear there was in the atmosphere!

[@bigtodd]

Came within a few miles of a tornado yesterday in central Indiana just when I thought the conditions were lightening up

[@runt9]

Fantastic work Trey. As I said on Twitter that tornado was way too close for comfort and I still can't believe how quickly things ramped up in OKC, but such a massive part of it was the line breaking up and sending that swirling embedded supercell right at the metro area. I'm really happy you're ok, and I'm sure this is just a really busy week in general for you getting this wrapped up right in time for another potential major outbreak.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Definitely been busy in preparation for this upcoming stretch of days…looks like it could be a big time event.

[@runt9]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, Mother Nature is keeping you busy! Also I remember the forecast video and seeing what appeared to be completely bonkers hodographs, and the real hodographs blew the forecast ones away... and now the forecast for Thursday is showing completely obscene hodographs in Arkansas. These recent events have had just completely incredible shear.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@runt9 Yeah, usually these cold season/early spring events have very impressive wind profiles, but we've seen some days with ridiculous hodographs this year.

[@ok_marcussharcus]

Thanks for the amazing breakdown so soon after the event. I was hoping you would do it for this setup at some point.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

For sure, thank you for watching!

[@rvermill47]

Man your post-mortems and case studies are awesome. I chased back in 1982. I'm still in awe at what we have to use for study AND warnings now. Thanks for taking your time to educate us. Please keep up the great work!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words!

[@jimmy_yunge]

Great discussion as always, and stay safe.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words and the Super Thanks!

[@jimmy_yunge]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Of course. It’s always heartbreaking to see those kinds of images shown in the beginning, and to imagine it happening close to you and to people and places you know. Wishing all affected a fast recovery.

[@tomchidwick]

Trey, great work with this Post-Mortem. My sons and I chased (from Waco) and observed this event in the Shamrock, TX area when the batch of semi-discreets went by (that later headed to Kelton, TX and Sweetwater, OK if I got that right) then we went east to Erick, OK when the ragged QL 'front' passed through. Later we were driving south from Clinton through the Hobart area, watching the coverage of the what was happening in Norman. The whole event was crazy, and we didn't even experience or come close to the full brunt of it. Since I was driving the whole time I didn't really have much of a radar-eye view of the atmospherics and kinematics. Watching your analysis here gave me an extra appreciation for the overall meteorology of Sunday's event. I really love your work! Thanks again for this summary!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words! It was definitely a crazy event, especially for February in the Southern Plains.

[@DennisCarmody]

I think the random temperature gradient may have been caused by small differences in the number of minutes of sunshine that occurred as the clouds burned off late in the day. Here in Enid, we went from cloudy to sun to cloudy to sun rapidly shortly before sunset and that first period of sun brought us the biggest spike in temperature, and I think it made us slightly warmer than just to our west, which led to the spin ups in the Enid area. Perhaps a similar dynamic occurred in Norman.

[@J5wxYouTube]

Nice breakdown! Thanks for publishing it!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@J5wxYouTube]

@@ConvectiveChronicles You’re welcome!

[@ltdjag7577]

Excellent discussion. From my vantage point of 149th and Harrah Newalla Road, when the twister moved from Norman across Lake Thunderbird, I thought we were in for a repeat of May 2013. Whew! Thanks Trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! It definitely looked like it might take that same track.

[@JetSettingBotanist]

I live in Norman and have been watching you for awhile, never knew you were local, cool! Glad you are safe

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Been a Normanite for almost 5 years now!

[@lacetheealaskanhusky712]

The fact that this was the day before my birthday and I used to live in OK, is crazy.

[@jamestyndale6388]

Both a Derecho and a Tornado Outbreak...yikes. Good thing you are ok.

[@unclelou8636]

Even though a lot of this goes over my head, it is still fascinating to me. I am working through your series of videos on reading hodographs; really cool stuff. One thing I am curious about in this video specifically because I've never seen it before. At around the 35:00 mark you have a radar image up. Towards the southern end of the line there are narrow "fingers" of very heavy precip extending east ahead of and to a lesser extent west behind the line. Never seen this feature before; is it common? What is it/causes it?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for watching this video and the hodograph series! I don't think I have a great answer for you, as I'm not 100% sure...I have a hunch that those fingers are simply the result of strong frontal forcing that was continuously pushing air upward along the boundary, leading to rain out ahead of and behind the line. I am not sure why they're organized in those "fingers."

[@peachxtaehyung]

1:44 I definitely know how you feel... I was almost hit by the kennedale-everman-arlington ef2 tornado in April 3 2012 and I was heartbroken when I would drive by seeing the damage etc. It happened so close to home and was also my first time being so close to being hit by a tornado in my life (at least that I remember).

[@MrJsauce63]

I got real worried when i saw the tornado hitting Norman. I knew that you live in Norman and you are one of my favorite youtubers so i was worried about your home getting hit, but i am very glad that you are okay!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Very lucky to have been spared but I feel sorry for those who weren’t as lucky.

[@MrJsauce63]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Yea i know that feeling too, i got spared in 2009 and kinda in 2011 as well. on april 10, 2009, a supercell passed right over where i lived but it didn't produce a tornado until after it passed over my town, unfortunately though, the tornado it dropped right after passing over me would go on to be the Murfreesboro, Tennessee EF4. and on april 16 2011, Holly Springs, North Carolina which is where i currently live, was in the path of a high end ef3 tornado that had just devastated portions of Sanford. luckily, the tornado weakened down to EF0-EF1 strength as it literally went straight through the center of town. I still lived in Tennessee at that time though, but it is still weird to think about how if that tornado had not weakened, i wouldn't be living here and i wouldn't have the friends that i have. I have been in the bullseye for countless tornado outbreaks, yet i have managed to get lucky every single time, but sadly that is not the case for everyone.

[@TheClassicBoy-R6]

OMG THATS WHERE MY HOUSE IS AT😮😮😮😮

[@convectioncowboy]

Great video! Glad to hear you’re safe.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@jamessimon3433]

Glad ur safe man! This should be interesting

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Was a really interesting event.

[@SvrWxArchive1807]

I'm curious as to your thoughts in the comparisons of the environment from Sunday and December 15, 2021 up north. Seemed like the dynamics were very similar.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Very similar as far as the fast moving nature of the parent system and the storms.

[@nicholaspayne349]

Shoutout from Norman. I live in the northern part of town. We’ve had a lot of near misses this year.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s for sure…definitely has been a return to active weather for central Oklahoma, including Norman.

[@afryhover]

Well done, thanks for making this. We appreciate your time and effort 👍

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@dragnflei]

Just thinking of storms moving at 80-90mph scares me. Really glad that there don’t seem to have been injuries from the tornadoes and glad that things missed you. Did the fact that this event happened in February make it even more remarkable? Also, how common are basements/safe rooms/storm shelters in that area?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The fact that this happened in February does make it fairly rare; derechos this early in the year are quite unusual. Thankfully, most people are prepared out here in OK due to numerous close calls before; thus, many homes are equipped with a storm shelter of some sort.

[@tornadoclips2022]

Crazy! Still shocked that I Almost got hit by a tornado that night! (Yeah I never have seen 1000 SRH that’s absolutely insane. With that much speed shear I’m not surprised it drilled through that cap that much just acts like a vacuum no matter what the temperate gradient! I couldn’t imagine if this happened in May or June. Like it would be so so much worse especially if we had like 4k cape and daytime heating. It would have been such a hostile environment Oh man it would probably be a very historic day 😢)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Agreed!

[@jasras5743]

Thank god you we're okay, pretty wild. Also ANOTHER severe weather outbreak on thursday too

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yes, I’m watching Thursday closely.

[@thomashinterdorfer147]

Great video mate. Glad you weren't directly impacted by the Norman tornado. My original virtual target for this event was West of Elk City, OK (along the TX PH / W OK Border). From a chaser perspective, Im glad that verified. Im honestly surprised as to why SW OK had a 10% hatched risk, yet Western OK into the Eastern PH didn't have a 10% risk (and the shock is more for why they were excluded rather than SW OK included, to me it seemed like an event where either everyone was included or not... no half/half) - when all CAMs had strong reflectivity returns forecast through those areas, along with more than adequate shear, helicity streaking was profound on most CAMS there vs what was forecast over SW OK. It seemed as though there was too much emphasis in my opinion on the raw values coming into SW OK, when the rest of Western OK, the Eastern TX PH, and as you mentioned, SW KS, had more than adequate values kinematics, thermodynamics and raw value returns - and it seems as though models like HRRR were correct with the bulkier reflectivity going through those areas and the higher tornado frequency (minus the Hobart tornado) occurring mostly outside of that 10% hatch area. I think more respect needs to be paid to SW KS too, and you did a great job of bringing light to that area. SPC reports only had 2 tornadoes there, but it seems as though there were double digit tornadoes based off ground-truthing the QLCS-like appearance to the radar as it moved through Dodge and surrounds. It seems from what Ive seen that there is a bit of a debate of straight line destructive wind damage vs tornadic wind damage - but plenty of damage reports (not SPC reports) indicating tornadic potential.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I think the fact that most models were showing some sort of mesolow developing down in SW OK, plus the timing of the moisture return, may have driven the SPC to include the 10-hatched down there. They eventually did expand it northward, farther into OK. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see more tornado tracks unearthed over the coming days; there were a bunch of strong couplets, and tornado damage may have been muddied by the straightline wind damage from the QLCS. All in all, a very interesting event to watch unfold.

[@thomashinterdorfer147]

@@ConvectiveChronicles That does make sense (re the meso-low in SW OK). I love these kinds of events when it comes to unravelling them. It brings the real geek out haha. You've done an exceptional job with the videos surrounding this one. Good luck with Thursday's potential - it wouldn't shock me if that became a HIGH risk across NE TX into Arkansas - although I feel the SPC are pretty relaxed when it comes to upgrading from ENH to MOD but far more hesitant to make that next upgrade to HIGH... so we will see how it unfolds.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@thomashinterdorfer147 Thank you! Yeah, Thursday does look pretty potent...the ingredients are there for a big time outbreak. I think if we get a little bit better signal for discrete storms, a High is definitely on the table.

[@DanielDaniel1]

Fantastic work as always. In the first pictures of damages, it’s clear that home garages are a huge liability in a tornado/high wind event. Once the door lets go, the whole garage gets “inflated” and blows out a huge part of the structure

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! 100% agree...garages are clearly the weak point; the worst damage I saw on my survey was from homes with garages facing the tornado.

[@Duck_87]

Glad you're ok. That was some insane shear!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The shear was ridiculous!

[@raymondguilbeault4585]

That SRH value in South West Oklahoma is almost on par with Columbus Mississippi on April 27th 2011 insane

[@windwatcher11]

Glad your house was spared.😅 Great post mortem. So cool on the wx balloon!! Love that - wish that could happen more often!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yes, I wish they’d have the funds for many more balloon launches throughout the day, especially on big days. Would really help our weather models out!

[@hgbugalou]

My guess for the main cell isolating itself is a bit of an rfd surge from those NW cells combined with an interaction of a rear inflow jet to push the cell forward and help isolate it from the southern line while also enhancing rotation in the hook. That boundary to the south after the tornado forms is telling to me as it seems like that is the rear inflow jet making it to the lower levels and spreading out with boundary interaction after surging through the convective line. With the winds aloft as strong as they were I could see this happening. There is also some evidence on radar reflectivity of this. Id like to see the velocity data a degree or two higher in tilt before that cell started to isolate itself.

[@KonekoD]

When you started going over that Norman sounding, I thought, "Someone's definitely writing a paper on this." 😂 I have family in the area (they weren't hit) and I was texting them while watching the radar. It was amazing how fast it moved from a concerning curve in the west to a debris ball over town.

[@peachxtaehyung]

Do you know why Oklahoma got tornadoes like they did but north Texas got nothing but some wind? I didn't even hear thunder where I am. Just curious because Texas had much warmer temps and higher dew points

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I think the cap was just too strong to overcome down south. Storms tried firing at the southern end of the line but would get choked off and fizzle quickly.

[@jacobpunch9178]

Event breakdown idea, 5/22/19. Such an interesting setup that sort of goes under the radar.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That's a good one; it's on my list!

[@FrankieB119]

Glad to know you're okay! You're one of my favorite KZbinrs. I especially look forward to your SPC forecast breakdowns. The Day 3 convective outlook currently has an enhanced risk area outlined. Will you be doing a video on the potential upcoming severe event?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I hope to have a video out tomorrow morning; if not, then definitely Thursday morning.

[@FrankieB119]

​@@ConvectiveChronicles I'll be waiting for it! Thank you for the work you do. I live in Alabama so I definitely want to hear your thoughts on the outlook.

[@bradrandolph9631]

@@FrankieB119 I live in Florence Alabama & I'm also very interested in what he has to say about Thursday/Friday. Stay safe.

[@FrankieB119]

@@bradrandolph9631 you too!!!

[@centexrails]

Great job! I hope you continue doing these for educational purposes. Share your knowledge with those that want to learn.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! No plans to stop anytime soon!

[@Duck_87]

With the tornado that hit Norman, do you think dynamic piping had a lot to do with the mesocyclone or tornado drilling through the stable air? I know wind shear and a insane amount of forcing had a lot to do with it also.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Tough to say…it very well may have.

[@tomatoplot]

Great review! Man, who'd have looked at that special sounding from Norman and thought "tornado!" Certainly not I, if not considering what was happening just west of it at the time anyways.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Totally agree!

[@Duck_87]

That's true with dew points because in the Texas panhandle 55 degree dew points is ideal depending on the temperature. A lot of people were talking about the mid 50 degree dew points in the Texas panhandle but wasn't factoring in elevation.

[@lifeintornadoalley]

Spc and NWS doesn't get enough credit for real. But we sure jump when they're wrong yeah? Great job everyone, we'll see through this. It's Oklahoma!!!! Also question: would it be possible to see a 3d radar imagine or? Ps: I love your style of explaining everything. You dull it down so everyone can understand. Some technical terms can be weird 😂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Absolutely, kudos to all the NWS offices involved, as well as SPC, for doing a great job once again. Yes, you can get 3D radar imagery; I just don’t have the program to do so.

[@lifeintornadoalley]

@@ConvectiveChronicles get a donation link setup! I'm sure some of us won't mind chipping in for you! That'd be cool seeing you have another tool in your arsenal. Definitely gives another perspective on certain features of a storm, figured it'd be a cool idea

[@jcnwillemsen]

Take care, thxn for all your great teaching !!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@MightyMuffins]

That was quite the event. I mean I was watching that the entire time and usually it's nice for someone like me in Upstate NY to have KFOR and News9 on my laptop always while also tracking on radar too when you get storms of this value going into the surrounding OKC and Moore metros. Hehe kind of mostly know those areas inadvertently over the years. Also it was wild seeing the Norman tornado cause we were eyeing and keeping an eye on if that would hit our friends house but it formed about 4 miles East or so from the apartments he lives in but he was in Florida at the time so yeah. Either way dude that was a pretty wild storm complex overall and you sure as hell got a scare. I mean we don't ever get that level of stuff in upstate NY except for the 5 tornadoes a year usually NW and S of Albany and are only EF0 and the EF1 usually. I will say this....we sure as hell are in Spring patterns now and early. This is setting up for a top 5 tornado year IF this keeps up. And looks like EF2 for the Norman tornado....hehe I guess you were right. I thought there would be a small patch of EF3 but I kind of expected Ef2.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad your friend's apartment is ok! Yeah, that was a real scare. Hopefully the last one for awhile but I'm not holding my breath...

[@MightyMuffins]

@@ConvectiveChronicles hehe Trey you guys got till June...ish to get through as usual to be in the clear....and then your state become an oven. I know cause we usually chase in very early June for 7-10 days yearly. It is unbearable from someone from upstate NY....takes 3 days to adjust.

[@peachxtaehyung]

17:06 yeah I was asking chat on the Texas storm chasers Livestream what that was and someone was saying it was dust and that's why it looked different and it made sense to me since it looked so different and why it was so slow compared to the rest

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, just a patch of clouds/low level stability that wouldn’t burn off.

[@sherren01]

I barely missed the Norman Tornado at work. Luckily my emergency message warned me as I couldn't hear the sirens in the cooler. I'm glad most everyone is okay tho

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you came out unscathed!

[@sherren01]

@@ConvectiveChronicles same to you. I didn't know you lived so close 😅

[@joshntn37111]

In 500 years, will it be possible to predict tornados to the point where we will know when and where they will form and when they will die?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I sure hope it’s sooner than that!

[@dmeemd7787]

There was so much going on that kind of watching a live stream and watching RadarScope.. As I was watching the radar, it seemed like some areas were losing steam, and then I saw that supercell picking up and all that stuff forming near Norman… so seems like one of those - speaking very loosely here - situation, where that southern storm, reduce the overall effect on the metro to the north, but bad deal man… kept switching to correlation coefficient… knowing people that live down there, etc… Knowing that, since it wasn’t semi wide tornado that essentially everyone affected is it gonna get nearly the health to rebuild it they should… one injury, one dad, one lost home… it’s all one too many… Maybe, just may be if they were greater public awareness on the stuff that they would ACTUALLY up building codes w/o it reaming everyone financially… I’m trying not to get off onto a tangent, so anyway, thoughts and prayers, and everything to everyone, whether they have insurance or not, I hope they get taken care of… most of the time they don’t need it… it digests me.. But channels like this, in others out, there are at least allowing people in “general public“ to maybe make some things happen, it’s always too little too late…. Besides, usually the most useless safety rules are the ones that are well-known, and the ones that matter the most are always written in blood.

[@13_cmi]

That kind of storm is weird. I don't even know what to call it. I'll trust the words of mr weather man here because I don't know much. Usually they start off early with rotation but this thing was just a normal ish line of storms and out of nowhere turned into something resembling a supercell. I already mentioned the estill sc tornado and how weird it was. That thing looked crazy. Wacky storms are something I need to learn more about.

[@johng.7560]

Funny how you go from wanting tornadoes to form when your house is not in danger, to not wanting them when YOUR house might be in danger.

[@Eric_Hutton.1980]

I find your videos fascinating and like your channel. I just prefer Carly Anna WX's presentation style better.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you. She does have a nice channel.