very important to understand you have to continuously do this for multiple time sets. daily 5 min, 10 day 10 min 30 day 60 min 3 month daily 6 month daily 1 year daily and 5 year weekly. Figure out each respective probabilty and then use comparative analysis and prob dist to figure out your daily prediction trends. Then compare your trends with hthe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD indicator) on each of the same chart sequences as above. Then cross 4 EMA with each chart. if the chart patterns are consistent you no longer have randomly distributed data, rather a glorified gambling set that dramatically increases both your odds and gains.
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
As soon as you said you have to calculate MACD, you are a technical fool, complete nonsense, if you understand Occams razor and that stock prices are essentially a fractal, you would not waste time trying to fool yourself this crude technique is about as good as it gets.
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
you have no idea, the maths is not even right, you need to learn some basic statistics, what you are talking about is econophysics and you cant see this guy cant do simple quant maths 101.
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
what utter nonsense & garbage
@YogeshKanna-m6i Жыл бұрын
I want the same stuff you guys are smoking
@Scott.Farkus6 жыл бұрын
I use the "sit and watch the price until I figure out the trend, then buy at the low and sell when it does what I know it's going to do" technique.
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
This is a very dangerous video clip from the comments below people with limited knowledge believe that these relative cumulative frequencies are probabilities, there not, and that probability estimates are predictions, they are not they are likelihoods, not predictions. what your graph is is a cumulative frequency ogive, not a probability distribution, and you are not calculating probabilities but relative cumulative frequencies, then subtracting them from each other this is not probability. I will post a reply to this on youtube in the upcoming weeks explaining basic quantitative finance 101, you also calculate your returns incorrect the percentage change is the estimate of daily returns.
@kajallison88965 жыл бұрын
haha lol
@vv97305 жыл бұрын
Firstly, you must learn how to "write English"...!!!
@FenderAddict932 жыл бұрын
HAHAH “upcoming weeks”!
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
@@FenderAddict93 there was a reply 4 years ago kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqjZkIeVd8qKq68
@theskeptic84894 жыл бұрын
i used his technique on a stock i'm familiar with and it proved accurate despite naysayers in the comment section.
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
luck happens try it every day for a year see your results
@VishnuAnilkumar15 жыл бұрын
Its a good education video... It has its limitations, but i dont see the people who are commenting the negative comments come up with a better way to do it.
@dragon.fromindia32353 жыл бұрын
SELL BITCOINS AND INVEST IN GOLD OR OTHER CRYPTO...
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqjZkIeVd8qKq68
@akashadhikari64648 жыл бұрын
At 1:53, don't you have to divide it by the previous price, 733.76? You said it right but divided by 731.25 instead.
@erikgoodge74507 жыл бұрын
Yes, the % changes are nonsensical. You can tell by just looking at them
@Anshul-nc4he4 жыл бұрын
That confused me first time in this video and after that i lost the track and more he's completely fuckin with my mind 😂😂😂😂
@DebrajPurkayastha3 жыл бұрын
i also noticed. anyway isn't it should be previous price. commonsense says so.
@vishnunarayanan82898 жыл бұрын
hi, in the end you just told us, the probability of a stock moving above or below is the same. So which means we basically cannot predict how it moves ? Right ? Effective market hypothesis right ?
@AndreasChristianto8 жыл бұрын
yes, this is also what i think
@vishnunarayanan82898 жыл бұрын
If a security's movement cannot be predicted, the possibility of a failure in scenario is 50%. Which is equal to the possibility of a success. So in simple words no one can effectively predict the market.
@AndreasChristianto8 жыл бұрын
Vishnu Narayanan i think because the method he uses is normal distribution. Actually the market moves in chaos and random (not normally distributed)
@vishnunarayanan82898 жыл бұрын
a 100 points drop in nifty the day before. How would you see this? Fundamentally or technically ?
@cb95717 жыл бұрын
very important to understand you have to continuously do this for multiple time sets. daily 5 min, 10 day 10 min 30 day 60 min 3 month daily 6 month daily 1 year daily and 5 year weekly. Figure out each respective probabilty and then use comparative analysis and prob dist to figure out your daily prediction trends. Then compare your trends with hthe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD indicator) on each of the same chart sequences as above. Then cross 4 EMA with each chart. if the chart patterns are consistent you no longer have randomly distributed data, rather a glorified gambling set that dramatically increases both your odds and gains.
@nitinagarwal35748 жыл бұрын
Fundamental Flaw in the approach - So basically if you select the highest percentage change (max positive % change) then you get very high probability almost close to 1, which means you have high chance that stock will show huge increase ? Do you think that make sense ?
@laramie1238 жыл бұрын
Yes Nitin, It is the cumulative probability. For example, if you look at the 2% gain it will give you what is the probability for the gains to be less than 2%. To get probability of gains between 1.5 and 2.0 percent you would have to take a difference in probability to two points. If you go to very high gains (suppose 50%) commutative probability will converge to 1. Convergence to 1 means here are 100% chances that stock gains will be less than this 50%.
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
Yes you are right it is not a probability at all, it is a relative cumulative frequency and it is a dangerous video, misleading people.
@javaxp17 жыл бұрын
you are calculating the volatility instead of direction
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
May not but not exactly
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
If thats the volatility my arse is on fire, I don't see any flames and I haven't been lighting farts, go back to school.
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
This is not the volatilty the volatility is the standard deviation.
@benitezsdtrader3755 жыл бұрын
IQD Momentum strategy is built with social at the forefront for stock exchange mostly. Fully integrated chat systems, chat forums and an excellent way to share your drawings and analysis with a single click to any group or forum. This makes for an excellent way to generate ideas or learn beside other traders with Lukasz Wilhelm. You have to try it and see it in action to understand the power of implementation.
@radiantonion86154 жыл бұрын
he doesn't say direction.
@cmrncrick4 жыл бұрын
What is the time frame for your probability analysis? Like at 9:00 where you talk about the probability of the stock staying under 2% and above -5%...in what time period will that probability prove effective?
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
One day because we are looking at one day changes.
@cmrncrick4 жыл бұрын
@@laramie123 Thank you for the reply.
@Tokamak_9 Жыл бұрын
It is possible to the same thing in Libreoffice Calc? I'm not using MS products.
@barbieworldmagic456411 ай бұрын
how to download this excel sheet
@gugu110014 жыл бұрын
But where is the rightness proof? Can you justify your prediction/probability for a value that you have got the very next day.
@bezerker20233 жыл бұрын
So with this graph and numbers when do I start buying and selling when proba8is low or high ?
@francisco8942 жыл бұрын
what is your opinion about technical analysis using smc concepts or fundamental analysis and use this method, do you think that if you use maths and TA you have more % to win?
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
quantitative finance yes TA no better than random.
@coolvideos28293 жыл бұрын
How can we predict the market using math? I believe it's possible through Fourier series and a few other views. Please help 🆘 I just don't understand how to get the wave form of the market and then calculate a point in time to predict the price. Itself sounds simple but idk what to
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
forget it fourier series do not predict prices
@carltube6285 жыл бұрын
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@hollowelljeff22425 жыл бұрын
I do my trades on this portfolio with Ben Fredrick. On Ben's managerial portfolio, he uses the return on investment to measure the gain to be generated on an investment relative to the amount of money invested.
@jacksonharry48585 жыл бұрын
How do I get started? I have no prior knowledge to what trading really entails.
@carltube6285 жыл бұрын
Portfolio management practice runs on the principle of minimum risk and maximum return within a given time frame and being a portfolio manager basically means tactfully managing an investment portfolio, by selecting the best investment mix in the right proportion and continuously shifting them in the portfolio.
@honglien50455 жыл бұрын
I'm from Vietnam, I do my trades with Ben Fredrick. Ben created the discretionary portfolio for me and he gets to handle all the paperwork and Strategies during the time frame of trades.
@montalbano1535 жыл бұрын
I do my cryptocurrency trades in this portfolio. I discovered I can't just be making investments with Bots and indicators, they're damn unrealistic and unreliable.
@prasannajitmishra47205 жыл бұрын
I always read comments first before watching the videos.Hence,l am leaving.Bye.
@Chhota_Py7 жыл бұрын
Bro , hats off to you , you explained so much maths that most of us don't understand motive of calculation
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
It is basic algebra.
@jamiepowl39832 жыл бұрын
No excel File to download?? (cry)
@sreeraj33958 жыл бұрын
i couldn't understand this prediction and calculations.. how to use this can you please explain this calculation,, it helps a lot.
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
This is as simple as you can get you will have to learn simple mathematics of finance 101.
@xl0008 жыл бұрын
This is equivalent to predicting the future... Does it do better than random ?
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
it is not and it does not work wake up.
@kandeepanthanapalar11272 жыл бұрын
What is small functions?
@surij83765 жыл бұрын
Look at all the prices from Count 1 to Count 6, it is decreasing from one day to the next but in Column C his calculation is showing a positive percentage change. Is this logical?
@user-nu2vc9mp5j6 жыл бұрын
graph reading is much easier way to identify price rejection/bounce and direction...
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
if the graph was right you are right but the graph is wrong watch my follow up reply video
@ignacioa36984 жыл бұрын
Your asking the probability of an event happening, or price range, BUT for what time frame? this does not address the time period. You’re looking up about 400 days or so of the stock’s historical prices, so does this probability answers is the answer for daily price fluctuation or for a longer time frame?
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
it is not a probability this is the probability formula =normdist(ln(price/threshold price)/(volatility*sqrt(no of days for threshold/year in days))) his price does not prepare for extremes it is range bound by a 400 day sample which may in fact be atypical of the stocks true price history. it is a badly done relative frequency polygon known as a frequency ogive.
@Althaf-ki5om8 жыл бұрын
CAN WE USE THIS FOR INTRADAY
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
YOu dont understand probability, NO its not for intraday. ok.
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
If you had any brains you would learn proper probabilities, this is incorrect.
@-hondosolo45186 жыл бұрын
Trading has nothing to do with probabilities. It's all about order flow. Hint: I don't use moving averages much anymore ( you eventually move past the need for em ), but if price has been moving down without closing above a moving average then closes above the average at a point, something has changed in the order flow.
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
good luck champion read Nassim Nicholas Taleb fooled by randomness.
@eklavyaparker49 Жыл бұрын
Trading has nothing to do with probabilities?? 😂😂😂
@vivekkukoo11 ай бұрын
Can u share this excelsheet
@moulicherukuri6 жыл бұрын
How can you predict government policies and etc.. and people demand and interest generally
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
All changes in government policies etc also happened in past and they are built into the data. This method provide us what all can happen and probability. Not what will happen.
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
With machine learning or regression not this nonsense numbskull.
@vaibhavupasani42313 жыл бұрын
Video: Predicting stock prices of Google Uses Yahoo for the analysis
@vs68955 жыл бұрын
It is the probability of the particular series and can not be used for live market or for trading. The Vdo can be considered as an Excel tutorial and not for stock price prediction.
@yoo_shang33883 жыл бұрын
great video. how effective is the probability ratio in forecasting index trend ?
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
it is not a probability ratio but frequency ratio incorrectly done. as you have no doubt found it is no use at all.
@GlobalAutoDepot8 жыл бұрын
Do you have any of your spreadsheets for download?
@jeremymanley57914 жыл бұрын
That's what I was thinkin. I'm good on computers but all that spreadsheet stuff holy moly!
@xl0002 жыл бұрын
This is a good Excel tutorial, if you ignore the fact that it’s not going to help you predict anything with a bette chance than random
@yasminyazdani89344 жыл бұрын
what time horizon is this for?
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
One day.
@pinkidwivedi17404 жыл бұрын
How we know sensex closing
@jyotianigol67025 жыл бұрын
i work in a trading company i want to download the video please help regarding downloading
@ajaythomas20095 жыл бұрын
Bro there is a downloading button 4th from the left...once downloaded it will show as downloaded. Also you can try using youtube downloader.
@236vic3 жыл бұрын
Hi Very interesting, explained well. This helps probability of stock going up or down based on pasted history. So yes good stocks have equal probability of going either way. What mathematical formula is used using time/dates and price during a period to determine that the price is mathematically low in a period of time.?
@jamesgilbert51493 жыл бұрын
There's the Black Scholes for an enquity option. But it's worth looking at Random Walks (function of time and other factors)
@mac-k4f6 ай бұрын
i can help you with a company where you can earn $40k weekly it's 100 percent legit. best regards mac
@cu76956 жыл бұрын
That's such a bullshit. These probabilities have no actual causality with individual pricing. Why do you sort by change and tie it with count column ? If you want to find changes, use conditional probabilities
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
That is what we call cumulative distribution. Sorting is required to find out cumulative distribution. Please refer to research papers on obstructed diffusion from Christopher Naumann.
@amithachandima33184 жыл бұрын
I think volume also consider. and other thing is need to find mean and standard deviation. Then need to find the probability through stanaderd normal distribution.
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Volume is considered for other analysis. This had nothing to do with volume.
@guciochris52979 жыл бұрын
Great video. Thank you Sir. Where can i download your spreadsheet ?
@rajagopalanramesh83424 жыл бұрын
What is the probability of success of this probability working. The assumptions themselves are probable. Market is very dynamic. The emotions, sentiments, psychology, liquidity, micro and macro economic parameters etc., are the factors for price movements. Mathematics require certain amount of facts and discipline. So many statistical measures and probabilities are built into Technical Analysis - even then - none can assure the indicators and oscillators working up to 100% accuracy. The Research says that only 2 to 3% of the Traders make money in Intra-day and Swing-Trading.
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
You do not need 100% accuracy. You can win if you can be more than 50% accurate. Even with 51% accuracy. Also, no one without proper education and tools should invest in markets. The whole purpose of stock market is to transfer wealth from common people to professionals in this business.
@hoigiang10057 жыл бұрын
i just buy when its price down 30% and sell while up 30% ,could you give me advice ?
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
Its a bit more complex than that, and it never went above or below 30% in a day, I am pretty sure the S&P only ever dropped in a day 20% black monday 1987, it never drops more than 10% generally in a crash in a day, you mean in a month it might drop 30% or rise 30% this is about daily probabilities.
@1907sanjeev7 жыл бұрын
Really nice video. What would be interesting is to see is if these probabilities remain more or less constant for a company/asset over consequent years and thus consistent for the purpose of projections
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
I am a quant and I do this everyday mostly with R, and they dont stay constant and his calculations are all wrong, be carefull!
@johnnywalker83975 жыл бұрын
@@nhoj277 please im trying tp learn more about this can you point me some videos abut correctly calculating this?
@dragon.fromindia32353 жыл бұрын
SELL BITCOINS AND INVEST IN GOLD OR OTHER CRYPTO...
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
j walker kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqjZkIeVd8qKq68
@999locke7 жыл бұрын
great!! is there any samples?
@nitinagarwal35748 жыл бұрын
you started confusing while telling probability less than a particular value, ideally, it should be a sequence of events, not an individual event
@sudheerch22895 жыл бұрын
I learnt a new function(small) in excel from this video.. Apart from it every thing else is real crap..
@stephenhobbs9484 жыл бұрын
If you can't say something nice, just don't say it. Who made your the arbiter of crap? Jesus, just be nice. If you don't like it bc it does not apply to you, just move on.
@hurdur68284 жыл бұрын
Stephen Hobbs Dude, we need to call out crap on things that deserves to be called it. The video is a huge mistake, it’s literally saying that a green day in 2010 will somehow affect the future stock price. He’s literally calculating the chances of the stock hitting a specific price from some arbitrary number of how much items there are.
@allinbenoni46084 жыл бұрын
This is a good one sir ,Even after watching most trading videos I never thought it was ever possible till I got my first profit through Mr Romero pieto , All it take is to earn his good guidance.
@pamelawalker82784 жыл бұрын
His trade execution quality and profiting is well structured with great financial features.
@jenniferwilson98984 жыл бұрын
Mr Romero pieto is indeed a great man of integrity who always stands by his words no matter what comes his way.
@beckymilton20294 жыл бұрын
Well explained video sir.
@abbaabdel52514 жыл бұрын
Apparently this is one of the most gifted trader around,I have only been with him for 3 months now and I have learnt so much about his trading skills.
@coryprinceton79304 жыл бұрын
Pamela am from Canada 🇨🇦 and am also a newbie in the online trading market so please how can I get hold of Mr pieto and his trading services?
@Sam-ue4rv4 жыл бұрын
Can't predict market sentiment.. If it was this easy Warren Buffet would own the whole Stock Exchange and every listed company in the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Lol
@ayushtripathi25193 жыл бұрын
Hey, aapne Jim Simmons ke bare me suna hai...!
@bodyevolution85166 жыл бұрын
No, no, no. You did probabilities all wrong. Your count does not equivocate to frequency of that net change from a simple sort of range of minimum to maximum. That’s why you’re getting messy errors towards the bottom: no stock would rise 16%, 15%, etc. 98%, 99%, etc. You need to calculate the standard deviation of the stock price over a set of time to understand the volatility of the stock’s price movement, and then do regression analysis with certain degrees of freedom to forecast the stock’s price with a selected confidence level.
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
This is called cumulative probability. You are talking about another concept.
@No_BS_policy3 жыл бұрын
Stocks prices are log-normally distributed so be careful about using standard deviation on prices. In fact you can not even standardize deviations on a non-gaussian asymmetrical distributions as their central tendencies are poorly defined unlike in a gaussian curve. Regression will only make things worse. For satan sake people, have basic education on when not to use standard deviations and regression.
@No_BS_policy3 жыл бұрын
I may not have PhD in Statistics but I can easily tell this way of assigning probabilities using frequencies is a very poor way to judge the probability of stock movement for a given time frame. This method is no different from the coin toss experiment and thus the latter gives you more or less the same results.
@laramie1233 жыл бұрын
May want to get a PhD or read some research papers
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
@@laramie123 you should! he is right, I have a masters in econometrics from a group 1 University not calcuta remedial college your stuff sucks badly.
@royjs29637 жыл бұрын
hi dude, good explanation but we don't know whether it decreases or increases today/tomorrow, please provide that details if any.
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
Probability to increase or decrease is same :)
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
it is impossible no single person on the planet can do that except having a guess.
@MuhammedCPmuhammedba7 жыл бұрын
full confused,,,,,no logic,,,pls explain wht is % changes sort,,,and the way u calculate for % change is ryt ? i think the equation is for % change =(B3-B2)*100/B3........pls let me know if it is wrong and why ,
@timshen83107 жыл бұрын
there are two ways to calculate %change, yours is from back to front , the author is from front to back., both are correct, depend on how you look at the %change., well, asking your math teacher might be more accurately..just like a pork, some people presume it's unholy food, others don't look at that way., which one you can presume who's more correct than other ?
@rajeshs61486 жыл бұрын
Where is predication
@ankitshah34515 жыл бұрын
Haha.. simplicity at its best but let me try to extrapolate your study. Do this same thing for one month rolling change instead of daily and taking longer history. Then if prob of moving between -2 and +2 is say 65% then write a call and a put with one month expiry and strike in that range from cmp, which would suggest your winning rate is 65%.
@carlos3076118 жыл бұрын
Hi, Great video!! But unless I'm mistaken, there is a contradiction betwwen the calculated results and the graph. According to the graph, the probability of a price move between 1 & 2% is close to 70%. The calculated result gives a probability of 28.676%. Would substracting that number from 1 give us a result which matches the graph?
@Charles-xc6sr2 жыл бұрын
yes
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
it is not a probability and is range bound by the sample size very dangerous
@kennethmoorhouse59793 жыл бұрын
I belive you can use percentile and percentile rank to figure some of this aswell
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
you are confused
@rajajani54947 жыл бұрын
read all CPY the reports and company future planning it will give clear cut ideas..
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
Fundamental analysis like technical analysis is only marginally useful, most people make money by simply buying and holding and the general upward drift in prices over time accrues gains, simple, otherwise , and I am not joking, you need to understand rocket science, Brownian motion, statistics, calculus, basically quantitative methods.
@javaxp17 жыл бұрын
what a waste of time... we can find this out by just looking at a simple candlestick chart with sma
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
Keep your mind open :)
@user-nu2vc9mp5j6 жыл бұрын
thats just excess noises, filter system on..
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
chandlestick chart and sma, so you reckon probability is the same as reading tea leave charts? Delusional.
@Larry2192411 ай бұрын
This is extraordinary in every way. I recently read a similar book, and it was extraordinary in every way. "The Art of Meaningful Relationships in the 21st Century" by Leo Flint
@rohankurian56414 жыл бұрын
Super informative... Can you do an episode of an analysis of Petroski (Score 9) stocks...There seems to be information that these petroski 9 stocks outperform the sensex by 100% over time... Considering we are in coronavirus lockdown...can you check on these companies...their financials are some of the best within their respective sectors Indraprashta medical Resonance specialty Jagsonpal pharma Blue star
@harshitmehta40513 жыл бұрын
Looking at this comment after 11 months and almost all these stocks gave a 100% return! Super Impressive! Could you shed some light of how you came up with these companies, I'm a finance student with fundamental knowledge and want to dig into the quant side of the market with all my energy
@juantray Жыл бұрын
That's one way to calculate probability. Another way is to use NORMDIST function in Excel (kzbin.info/www/bejne/mIjLaHSslLWUrLs) or the monte carlo simulation (kzbin.info/www/bejne/rXzHnniOeNuib9U)
@user-so3uk9os4k3 жыл бұрын
Isnt it like this? Change in percentage= (b3-b2)*100/b2 Eg. ∆P=(1100-1000)*100/1000 =10%
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
arithmetic returns are not quantitatively correct, you use log price changes ln(price2/price1) to get the percentage daily return see kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqjZkIeVd8qKq68
@akshayverma17106 жыл бұрын
Bhai probability pdha h kbi, 16% ki probability 1 means daily 16% increase hoga. Mtlb kuch b.
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
It is cumulative probability. Probability for stock price increase to remain under 16% increase approching 1.
@skybluefeather3974 жыл бұрын
This is a fantastic video and explanation... thanks!
@Lolwg988 жыл бұрын
Great video! Helped me a lot.
@laramie1238 жыл бұрын
+markus lervik Thanks!
@you-bq3ob4 жыл бұрын
@@datanomics777 seems like you are a channel owner of the same field and trying o downcast other channels but he is better than u that's why u have 64 and he has 120k
@nhoj2772 жыл бұрын
@@you-bq3ob no I do not make false outrageous claims just facts.Facts don't sell because reality is never as much fun as gargs make believe. I AM PROTECTING FOOLS FROM UTTER STUPIDITY NOT TRYING TO PROMOTE MYSELF kzbin.info/www/bejne/hqjZkIeVd8qKq68
@IamMoreno8 жыл бұрын
hi , i have seen sometimes change id calculated in terms of logarithm function like ln(t1/t2) does ir make some difference? Excelent videos regards from Mexico
@humanbeing83415 жыл бұрын
the ln(t1/t2) is continuous growth rate the discrete which he calculates in a cumbersome fashion is (t1/t2)-1 to make it a percentage times by 100. Continuos is a geometric compound rate, whereas the discrete is a arithmetic rate.
@marchapril73166 жыл бұрын
I think you forgot to normalize the data, before determining probability.
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
No normalization is needed.
@marchapril73166 жыл бұрын
Your probabilities are all wrong. Find the mean, do standard deviation. How can you have 100% probability that the stock will go up 16%? 0% probability that the stock will go down 5%?
@antriflor7 жыл бұрын
Looks like a really fun excel exercise, but any real trader will tell you there are way more variables in a stock's movement than it's past price performance. A single news release can throw the whole thing into undeserved selling or unwarranted buying. In the end it is always speculation, not concrete math that accurately predicts the stock price. If it was only math, then anyone who traded would be a millionaire in less than a year. Which obviously isn't the case. Good video though, very interesting.
@laramie1237 жыл бұрын
You are Correct!
@johnabraham82973 ай бұрын
Basic mistake..Should be B3 - B2 . Whole thing is flawed.
@kittukunal4 жыл бұрын
what was the point ? .. how did you predict the stock price here ? .. do you even understand the meaning of the English words, which titles this video ? .. what a waste of time
@mullensrichard23914 жыл бұрын
Thanks to Mr George with his amazing strategies in stock market, I keep making more profits like never before.
@andersoncreeden32504 жыл бұрын
Mullens Richard seems you just started investing with him? Have been investing with him in the past 7 months and my profits keeps coming, his just a genius keep the good works sir.
@siegelmc90614 жыл бұрын
Hey head about Mr George profitable strategies in other platforms by some brokers and ask how to reach him but got no reply, I want to invest as well please.
@mullensrichard23914 жыл бұрын
Siegel Mc I connected him via mail at,,,,geogescout321@gmail. com
@lonutifrim27504 жыл бұрын
I think Mr George is the real deal for people to give good recommendations about his profitable strategies.
@jangzterrizer94054 жыл бұрын
Fuck Mr George
@mtbnaz30886 жыл бұрын
All the data is weighted equally, unfortunately this is not how the stock market works.
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
How do you think they should be weighted?
@No_BS_policy3 жыл бұрын
@@laramie123 easy. Law of large numbers!
@icyboy771z4 жыл бұрын
This is good, but then again markets can act irrationally and break high/low barriers
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Yes. Do not invest in it if you do not have proper education and did mock trading for a year.
@ezziaryoussra26425 жыл бұрын
I don't know anything much about stock market or trading earlier. I am a veteran from Ireland. i begin to get interest after knowing more about Iqd momentum introduce by lukasz wilhelm. Your videos are quite interesting and a lay man like me could follow and understand to a great extent. just as like Iqd momentum strategy. Very interesting Thank you.
@dgosar18 жыл бұрын
what a foolish method is this. no logic here. simple example if the prob is 50% for stock to moove from 0-15 % then definitely the chances of moving stock between 0-1% should be much more then 50% but here it shows 28%.... whatever is shown in xls sheet is all wrong and not at all logical.
@mohitbagri47597 жыл бұрын
just tell me which one is the larger range between the two 1)0-1 2)0-15 it is obvious that 0-1 lies within 0-15 so how on earth the probability of getting 0-1 be higher than getting 0-15. and also had he taken the whole range i.e. -5.35-16.03 it would have resulted in 100% probability.
@hemanthnekkanti34507 жыл бұрын
probablity will not give a ture answers but it will predict in terms of percentage higher the percentage higher will be u r assumption come true in engineering applications.
@aakashyenduri72206 жыл бұрын
Probability is defined as chance, more chances are there for the stock price to be in 0-15% rather than 0-1%
@saitan34284 жыл бұрын
I lost money 😡
@DATACOOKING198210 ай бұрын
Excellent Sir
@psychoo16psycho517 жыл бұрын
Horse racing would be a better probability to perform better. Would rather suggest don't display such crap
@l13xquinn8 жыл бұрын
I like it, but a bit convoluted.
@PD-xc5ju8 жыл бұрын
does it have any real use? if yes then show
@laramie1238 жыл бұрын
+Prasanta Debnath There is a real use. This is what is used to price stock options. And big banks use this methods to invest in market.
@JuvilleBeats7 жыл бұрын
Garg University you must be kidding...
@OptionTrader6 жыл бұрын
Please read Derivative markets and you will undersatand
@ankitasingh5066 жыл бұрын
If we believe that the share market is gambling then why do we invest in mutual funds? It simply depends on our attitude. Subscribe : #sharemarketdiaries
@stockmarketindia78608 жыл бұрын
THIS IS A GOOD VEDIO .... IT HELPS ME A LOT..... BCZ THIS STRTEGY ALSO BE IN MY MIND....BUT I CONT DO IT BECOZ I DONT KONW HOW CAN DEVELOP THIS
@subramanyam26995 жыл бұрын
One video that made me understand at least something about how they calculate stock price..
@gaming_cafe5 жыл бұрын
This guy have a super power that he can make anyone sleep ... Am almost sleepy ... Yawn ...
@ronxdiary83594 жыл бұрын
😆
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Please recommend to people who have hard time sleeping. They will bless you.
@gaming_cafe4 жыл бұрын
@@laramie123 I wish I could know anyone facing such issue but you can take the honors ...
@PD-xc5ju8 жыл бұрын
moreover the title is absolutely misnomer
@nhoj2775 жыл бұрын
Absolutely right, it is wrong.
@KennTollens4 жыл бұрын
Thanks. Looks like I will have a 50% chance of it going up or down.
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Yes. That is why be careful.
@dragon.fromindia32353 жыл бұрын
SELL BITCOINS AND INVEST IN GOLD OR OTHER CRYPTO...
@deeps6046 жыл бұрын
100% probability of stock increasing by 16%.....nd you are from " garg UNIVERSITY " ......
@laramie1236 жыл бұрын
It is cumulative probability. Probability for stock price increase to remain under 16% increase approching 1.
@rajain4 жыл бұрын
Yes it does help... thanks for sharing
@jesuscristosalva17104 жыл бұрын
Jesus Christ saves and has a plan of Salvation for your life. We accept Jesus Christ as our Lord and Savior and live a life according to the Bible.
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Religion kills. Look at the world today and our history.
@priyankardas294 жыл бұрын
Excellent ❤️ vai...
@samiswilf5 жыл бұрын
This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. If he did he would have given a time duration, not merely it has X probability to go Y percent without specifying the duration of time. I can say a stock will double, if I'm talking about 10 years.
@laramie1234 жыл бұрын
Time duration is one day. We used one day difference to built the curve. Idea is to understand the concept.
@samiswilf4 жыл бұрын
@@laramie123 oh shutup you now say that how many years later? rofl you say that after you see what happens
@swaybryan5242 жыл бұрын
My broda ur accent is fonny ….😂 so iz mine
@itsprincez71205 жыл бұрын
b lil bit louder
@RupeshKumar-sy7co4 жыл бұрын
Good job thanks
@mac-k4f6 ай бұрын
i make over $40k weekly reply to tell you how this is not a scam
@satheshkumar40354 жыл бұрын
I believed its gonna be an intresting video, but u end up in one desert, feeling lost