Gary Shilling explains the only way to beat the market and win

Financial analyst Gary Shilling reveals the lessons he has learned about the economy and markets, how to stay ahead, and why everybody can't win. Following is a transcript of the video.
Gary Shilling: Well, I've learned a lot of lessons over the years, and most of them the hard way. But, there are a couple of basic facts.
If you look at the economy, it grows over time. Not at a steady rate, but it grows over time. And markets, particularly the stock market, reflects that. In other words, if you have the economy growing at, let's say the nominal economy, nominal GDP growing at 4%. Long-term, corporate profits are going to grow about the same rate.
Obviously, they can't continually expand faster than the economy or decline relative to the economy. So, that's where you start.
So, in terms of stocks, the only real difference between how the nominal economy is going, and how the stock market is going, is price-to-earnings ratios, and they move in long cycles. 10, 15 years, they move up, then they'll tend to move down. And that's pretty much it.
Now, that's the overall economy and that's the overall investment.
Of course, everybody thinks they're going to beat this, there's that great gambling instinct in all of us. That's why people watch financial news programs. That's why they're watching us. Everybody's trying to get a leg up here.
Well, of course everybody can't win at this game, I mean, on average, it's going to average out. There is that hope that springs eternal within the human breast, as somebody once said, that you're going to be ahead of the game.
Now, what that means is, if you are trying to beat the game, you've got to be against the consensus. It doesn't mean that you simply are a contrarian in a sense of, "whatever the consensus is, I'm going to take the opposite side." No, no. 'Cause there's times the consensus can be right, and often is.
But, what it means is that, when you come up with an idea, and it is counter to the consensus, and you think it's got a good chance of happening, and it's a trend that's working, well, then that's where you want to really jump on it with all force.
That's what we did in the early 2000s. We saw as early as 2002, what looked like a developing housing bubble. And, so we said, "This isn't ready to crack yet, but it looks like it's getting there."
You had people who were putting nothing down on houses, they assumed that the appreciation would be such they'd never even have to make one monthly payment, because they could refinance, you had the no-doc loans, all this nonsense.
It really was clear.
Now obviously that bubble would not have been developed and not broken 'til really the end of 2007, unless everybody, or most people, were convinced it was going to last forever.
So, there's a case of where you had an extreme situation, it was against all reality in terms of how long it could last, and it was one of these rare opportunities where going against the trend with a major bubble having developed, where you could make some serious money.
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[@viniciusantonio8213]

The money market provides financing to local and international traders who are in urgent need of short-term funds.

[@theresaquiera7412]

International traders benefit from the acceptance houses and discount markets.

[@EricBrittonSilvado]

Timothy Eric Meek made emphasis on how the money market also makes funds available for other units of the economy, such as agriculture and small-scale industries.

[@durhammiller8817]

Yes, he made a valid point. It provides a facility to discount bills of exchange, and this provides immediate financing to pay for goods and services.

[@rosannaconstil571]

Timothy Eric Meek is an expert trader, i so much believe in his market strategy.

[@christianrode8316]

How can i be able to reach him please

[@kreshko]

"You can't beat the market but you can beat your meat" - Warner Buffet

[@ivancifuentes7599]

The only thing I learned today

[@alphabeta4028]

If you can't beat the market, then just buy the SPY and go away! and you will beat 95% of the investors including "professional" traders.

[@Ricobaca]

Naw, you.😊

[@summerbreeze5115]

meat?🤔 Wdym?

[@NossytCapital]

😂😂😂😂

[@mikebayless4268]

They should have this guy teach a course on finance to every high school student in America so they can learn the valuable lessons on how to beat the market which we didn't learn in this clip! 😂😂😂

[@Fudge_Fantasy]

He not rich.

[@yungdoji5235]

Maybe it went over your head. I’m watching now

[@CaptainBenjamins]

Everybody wants to beat the market, how come nobody ever wants to just be one with the market? VOO and chill baby

[@sam7707_]

Yeah fking hell yeah 😎🔥🔥🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@jsnam8139]

"Cut your losers short and let your winners run". This is the million-dollar quote guys.

[@ElenaWhite-tw9px]

I'm interested in investing, but I'm not sure where to start. Do you have any advice or contacts who can help me out?

[@PeruWilliams]

Investing can be complex, so it's smart to get professional guidance when building your financial portfolio.

[@Alfrednells-tp6nv]

It's a great idea to have a conversation with financial advisors like Naomi Dean to reshape your portfolio.

[@martintodd8213]

I spread out my $25k portfolio across various markets to diversify my investments.

[@user-mw5ot7tl2s]

That's awesome! I ended up making a net profit of about $115k by investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and equity.

[@sheryliris4774]

Mrs. Naomi truly transformed my financial situation for the better. Thanks to my friend who introduced me to her, my financial status has improved significantly. 😊

[@connietimoney4447]

I learned something very valuable from Gary. Most of the best lessons are the hard ones. Thats true. You never forget a good kick in the ass.

[@BrunoLuke]

While trying to build passive income and prepare for retirement, It’s important to choose stocks that are expected to hold up in inflationary environments. To combat the negative effect of inflation, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, since this can help protect your portfolio against inflation. I have seen people making up to $800k in a month during high-inflation

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

One strategy is to invest in assets that perform well during inflation. Another strategy is to focus on companies that have the ability to pass on price increases to their customers. It's also important to maintain a diversified portfolio. It may be a good idea to speak with a broker who can help you develop a customized investment strategy based on your individual goals and risk tolerance

[@BrunoLuke]

@@MarcusFred-wn3iv I used to manage my stock portfolio by myself, all that time I did not make any significant returns (but also did not suffer losses). Then out of nowhere 2008 happened, and I lost 50% of my savings in a very short period. That prompted me to hire an FA, Since then I have been learning a lot about the stock market and I have made up to $500k in returns

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

@@BrunoLuke I've been thinking of going this route of using an advisor. Could you suggest yours?

[@BrunoLuke]

@@MarcusFred-wn3iv I personally work with *KRISTIN GAIL CUNNINGHAM* She covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, and ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that. Just take a look at her full name on the internet. She is well known so it shouldn't be hard to find her

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

@@BrunoLuke She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@loud9090]

I find myself at a crossroads, uncertain whether to liquidate my $150,000 stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.

[@user-3456rtu]

Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.

[@322dawgg]

@@Marthas-r4c How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success

[@322dawgg]

@@Marthas-r4c Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

[@flying_salt]

Park it in an ETF like VOO or VTI and leave it alone. You will thank me later.

[@dannypowers4995]

It's simple, buy low sell high. Do not hold on to the stock because it will go back down.

[@kevinhoward1516]

That's all very well, but... What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so - Mark Twain

[@jimbojimbo6873]

“Don’t ask just suck” - Obama

[@bluelemonade6200]

Just take the opposite side of r/wallstreetbets, leverage the herd

[@mykasiurka]

Great video content! Excuse me for chiming in, I would appreciate your opinion. Have you heard the talk about - Sanames Stockify Scripophily (search on google)? It is a great one of a kind product for discovering the best options trading technique without the hard work. Ive heard some pretty good things about it and my close friend Aubrey at last got excellent success with it.

[@natehiggers42069]

This comment aged well....

[@TheMastermark10]

How has that gone for you?

[@stevenclark1123]

Lol - I'll bet that didn't work well. I take a simple approach to try to hedge things: 1) 30% of my capital in index funds (buy and hold) 2) 30% of my capital in dividend stocks. Quality only. (buy and hold) 3) 30% of my capital in Dreamfire52 (short term forex copy trading) 4) 10% in physical precious metals. This has the advantage of being completely passive. The Dreamfire52 account can make money as stocks fall and the 10% precious metals are an insurance policy against SHTF events.

[@lostmarxbro]

So basically time travel is the only way to make money

[@tanner9956]

@Eccentric I figured it out

[@TahaE66]

@@tanner9956 how

[@gino3286]

last amazing case Moderna stock. Up 400% in few months .... for a very specific reason. I believe in strategical stock picking. The market is like a food market. You can buy good food or half rotten. The P/E tells about the past ... but often who bets looks at future earnings.

[@tuna3875]

95% of traders lose money for a reason. Not to be a contrarian like he said but separate yourself from what a retail investor in that 95% population would do.

[@carolynrose1816]

what can I do? I have been disabled since 2009 and I am 58 years old at the verge of retirement. My portfoliio of $750k is down to $492k, How can I profit from the present market" , I mean I've heard of people making upto $250k in couple weeks during this crash and I'd like to know how.

[@devereauxjnr]

The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@322dawgg]

@@user-3456rtu How do I Meet this Lady?

[@322dawgg]

@@user-3456rtu Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.

[@patelvidhu4840]

I believe stock market is currently costly and chance of crash is high.

[@betohax]

That crash coming yet?

[@iEatCarKeys]

You were right, but something else crashed us

[@wiggle3309]

You were correct good sir

[@xuchilbara21392]

@@betohax your comment aged like a fine wine :)

[@betohax]

@@xuchilbara21392 A pandemic happened not a crash out of no where.

[@glamoc0000]

That means wait and be ready in late 2022 to scoop up some rentals.

[@fcukyou2_]

I agree...maybe before I think bc people still don't want to go back to work and playing the C-card...

[@Lunixas]

In other words.. “I haven’t been able to beat the market after all these years”

[@makaveli8979]

In case you didn't catch it the answer is "trend". Meaning risk little to win

[@jamalm]

Replace “housing bubble” with “bitcoin bubble” and everyone will call you crazy now. Most people can see bubble but they either too early or too late.

[@wildreams]

Bitcoin bubble is obvious. Not sure to what extend it will affect the real economy. But I feel the government should try to reign it in before too many people gets hurt.

[@JensHove]

+wildreams, fuck off commi.

[@wildreams]

@renge99O9 I know. But I wanted the government to step in anyway. Because too many people was going to get hurt if left uncheck (that was 9 months ago). Bitcoin purists aren't going to like it. Sure enough, there is a lot of regulations for crypto now. Not enough still though.

[@moonie8830]

@@wildreams Isn't the entire purpose with bitcoin that the government can't regulate it like other currencies?

[@wildreams]

@@moonie8830 Sure the government can regulate it. The government can't ban it completely even if they tried, but they could make it very difficult for regular folks to buy it if they wanted.

[@toddandrews2222]

You can't systematically beat the market. If you do beat the market for a time, you are lucky, not a great stock picker.

[@captain687]

Dont be greedy. Be patient. Gaining 2% a month is easier than people think but +10% a month is more attractive but unlikely sustainable.

[@hymansahak181]

You buy index funds instead of mutual funds. Index funds always outperform arrogant mutual fund managers over 10 years plus. As easy as that.

[@richbrake9910]

That is because they are mandated to stay long.

[@JustinBlazzzee]

And you’ll sleep a lot easier at night.

[@varunKawatkar]

What about hedge funds

[@leog6258]

Not Warren

[@TomBTerrific]

@@richbrake9910no that’s because our economy grows over time.😊

[@deevog]

In easy words against the Crowd Madness

[@imdoc7872]

So he started shorting the S&P 500 last month I think. It takes a lot of guts and reserves to do that. I think eventually it’s going to collapse and he will profit but he is losing lots of money in the mean time

[@kingkang6877]

IMDOC78 he's doing just fine now

[@feathersandtarmac6456]

“You can’t beat the stock market, But you can beat up old people” Harry styles

[@smeshnoymatvey2054]

There is always a strategy that beats the market. You can always find it in hindsight.

[@user-ol7tl1vf5m]

Bitcoin’s performance demonstrates that genuine prosperity and financial freedom are attainable only through decentralized systems. Having left centralized systems like Wall Street eight years ago, it’s worth asking: How are users of those centralized systems faring? How is traditional financial advice holding up? And how effective are influencers on platforms like KZbin? Remember, the tortoise often wins the race.

[@MrPerfectTr]

Keep calm and prepare the battel ❤😊

[@hsushhsjsb3415]

The FED'S should be paying Lala_dispute1 a half a million a week for stopping these assholes! You are awesome at what you do and I wish there were more great people doing what you do! God Bless you! i subscribed a long time ago and love what you do and what you're doing, not only for seniors, but for everyone else too. I share many of your work to try to open up eyes and I hope it does. Thank you for your services to us all. From New Jersey

[@reaper80808]

It's only a matter of time before the market crashes and when it does that's when you buy until then wait patiently.

[@MoneyUnshackled]

Couldn't agree more. Its a waiting game. Buy when everyone else is selling.

[@jimbush80528]

@@MoneyUnshackled Correction, buy when everyone already sold 😊

[@twincherry4958]

@@jimbush80528 so did it crash?

[@KraziJoker]

@@twincherry4958 yeah

[@rickygkilla1358]

twin cherry Yup Tesla stock went down to $400 and is now over $1500. Imagine the guy who bought 100+ of those stcoks

[@alexandersilva8565]

There isn’t a way to beat the market in fact you can earn but in the end you will lose all

[@malikfaheem9230]

than you should must start again. journey's not complete et!

[@SylviaJoe6]

Tesla stock dipped severally , resulting to about 23% drop in the shares value this month. I seriously need suggestions on how to diversify my $400k portfolio made up of volatile TSLA.

[@CaryTriana]

Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.

[@KarinaMilan4]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@AlexandraGray-t4]

How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.

[@KarinaMilan4]

Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

[@MichaelAD222]

Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@clarkkent4595]

Short term for think

[@johnmark3598]

Just join the "good ol boys club" and you will beat it everytime. These people are all part of a club and you and I aren't in it. They know exactly what the market is going to do months before it happens.

[@ngawangtashi326]

Artificial inteligence will beat the market

[@tiendoan1333]

Thank you for announcing it. We will proceed to price it in

[@thosoz3431]

THE BEST ADVICE DON'T, I repeat DON'T, Listen to the scammers on this page.

[@southbrazosbass244]

Best way to make money, is to print it.

[@MichaelAD222]

The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.

[@michaelpoczynek]

See The Intelligent Investor, Warren Buffet's favourite book. By Graham.

[@charlesvanderhoog7056]

All this works perfectly fine if you don't have to get income from stock investments but use it for a rainy day. When Tesla was still $200 to $400 before split, I had no money to buy anything. Now I have some and all of a sudden that same stock is $4000 (price before split) and then you have all these gurus explaining how wonderful Tesla stock is. Well, it surely has been wonderful to them. But Tesla going to $40.000 before split? That's another matter. We are listening to monied people. If you are monied, that's fine, otherwise think your position over.

[@jacksummers269]

The only way to beat the market is to know an insider that knows 100% what the market is going to do.

[@richbrake9910]

haha, and then go to prison along with the insider

[@terencetrentwatford.632]

Jack . Go to sleep thanks

[@angabluewellness8604]

Rich Brake 😂

[@rahulk570]

You really think that anyone who knows how it's done will let other know about the process and dig his own grave.. Naaah

[@StreetHierarchy]

Be born rich.

[@evanwashington6959]

Anybody knows what the hell he said in English

[@MohaymenPK]

1:33

[@deanalbertson7203]

It's called Diversification.

[@synthartist69]

The way to beat the market is to stay out of it.

[@sharinglungs3226]

synthartist69 but that’s not beating the market as being in the market can be extremely lucrative. It’s knowing when to take profits and wait out the downturns.

[@moonie8830]

If you're not in the market you won't earn anything, how is that beating the market?

[@jc.1191]

@@moonie8830 statistically he is losing by return, and inflation.

[@daniel29646]

Thats why you broke...

[@blackwallstreet6610]

So is Bitcoin a bubble or not? Bc the consensus is that it's due to correct but it keeps going up...

[@Someone-cd7yi]

Black Wall Street Some even predict that it will go on to more than a quarter million dollars.

[@blackwallstreet6610]

Forum for Democracy absolutely, I bought some in August and it's already doubled. All the naysayers, China, JP Morgan etc, have actually secretly bought billions of dollars of the currency

[@ashtrayy6969]

I hope you got the answer now!

[@jamespolland958]

Well, it's going down now to guess

[@sharinglungs3226]

I love that youtube keeps comments from the past. You get to see what people were thinking back then. I hope you didn’t get burned too badly.

[@Chopwoodcarrywater]

John Vogel made some similar points in his book Common Sense on Mutual Funds.

[@domingo2977]

Can you post the link to the book

[@PankajKumar6493]

@@domingo2977 kzbin.info/www/bejne/in_Zk3Wsr8qfebs

[@richhornie7000]

This man is a literal shill 😂

[@maniac7314]

👏👌

[@tomislavkrsic2153]

Its simple, you need money to make more money hahah you cant turn 100 dollars into 100000 dollars😅

[@danstylus1]

Gary Shilling 😂

[@budtcheez]

No, no he didn't.

[@feboogi]

Market is going to crash

[@pritamhait3288]

Yes now it's proven

[@charlesdomain9196]

2nd dislike

[@user-rz5bl4ij2b]

2

[@hishamelkot6886]

Zwho is this old guy

[@cwt4560]

Someone more wise than you?

[@mehtabkhan9410]

first disliker

[@cardorichard4148]

Mehtab Khan your Mum must be proud of you.

[@itsharris2345]

Nobody can beat the market

[@jimbush80528]

Lord Laskofin Yes, it is possible to beat the market. One needs to buy only distressed, undervalued assets. Right now, there is very few of them. The good time to buy stocks is when PE ratio falls to 12. or lower. You start unloading when PE >20, and finish selling when >25. Then you sit on cash and ignore all the noise and do not get greedy. If you have to wait 3-4 years for the bubble to burst, you just do that and focus on education and accumulation of wealth.

[@ericfernandez6706]

jimbush80528 Go with inflation protected securities issued by the government while you wait for a crash.

[@wildreams]

That is not true, if someone's going to lose, someone is going to win.

[@gendoruwo6322]

that's an idea for a Superhero or a Supervillain. "I am the Market. Nobody can beat me."

[@wildreams]

@jimbush80528 If that is the case, you would never, ever, get into companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon etc.

[@hsushhsjsb3415]

The FED'S should be paying Lala_dispute1 a half a million a week for stopping these assholes! You are awesome at what you do and I wish there were more great people doing what you do! God Bless you! i subscribed a long time ago and love what you do and what you're doing, not only for seniors, but for everyone else too. I share many of your work to try to open up eyes and I hope it does. Thank you for your services to us all. From New Jersey