Predicting the Buffalo Bills 2024 Win Total | PFF

PFF's Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo give their thoughts on whether the Bills will go over or under their projected win total for the 2024 NFL season.
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[@duhasstmich230]

Bills could go 17-0 they could go 12-5. But i think their floor is 12. Defense is going to be younger faster and healthier. The offense is going to bully teams. Just wait. You'll see it.

[@OldManInternet]

You think the Bills are that much better that their floor is a game higher than they had last year? I feel like you could make an argument that Diggs didn't really matter down the stretch, but I think saying that it improved that much while the division around them got better is a stretch. I would say the floor for all 3 top AFC East teams is around 9.5 games, and we'll have to see which group gels best as the season goes on.

[@pauldawson5395]

​@OldManInternet that guy is just a fan ! Not really going off of anything logic ! Just Fandom! 12 wins is a high floor ! I'd say there floo4 is 10.5 ! I think as long as Josh is the quarterback they will win an automatic 10 games , he's THAT good ! But I think they will have there struggles but still a top afc contender

[@bernooski5128]

@@OldManInternet The Jets and Pats are a dumpster fire and the Dolphins lost some really good key players. The Bills lost a bunch of always injured fossils on Defense and lost a locker room cancer in Diggs. I think the Bills will be better this year, but their schedule is VERY difficult.

[@duhasstmich230]

@@OldManInternet dude they got 11 wins with no defense and Diggs being non existent.....they are better this year...

[@OldManInternet]

@pauldawson5395 I agree. I'd say setting the floor for any team at 12 wins is kind of insane. Even teams like the Chiefs and 49ers I wouldn't set the floor higher than 11 myself.

[@timd4789]

This is a tricky one the O will struggle for a bit but the D might actually end up elite if they stay healthy

[@hairpunut]

Idk the offense will still function with some key players that are still there Dawson Knox, The new TE Kincaid shuld show some great ability. And sharkir so there are some new key players that can still make plays. And that doesn't included the new onboard of the run game. Which should help a good chunk.

[@danielventura8118]

As a Bills fan I think the opposite honestly,I think the back end on defense will struggle with Poyer and Hyde gone for a decent chunk of the year.I think the offense will do better then last year with a full offseason under the new oc and I think Josh will benefit from spreading the ball around

[@hairpunut]

@@danielventura8118 How though they were hurt all the time. And mostly out alot, the year prior hamlin was playing full time and doing really good. Cole Bishop is a drop and play. Dmar Hamlin already knows the system now. So it's not like we're going into this with no known experience. Mike Edwards is a 2x Superbowl winner with KC and KC s back end safety's play similar roles to buffalos. Also Sean mcdermont is a safety expert and whisperer. He made poyer and Hyde. The two greats they are now.

[@vladostrov8676]

Bills will be very dangerous on offense no more forcing the ball to Diggs , the Defense is now healthy and even with new additions will still be 10 times better then it was at the end of the season going into playoffs , Even with a tough schedule we got Josh Allen and Kincaid / Shakir will have a breakout year

[@ravenclaw9122]

We want to play through our running game and tight ends. Josh wants the ability to look anywhere he wants first read as opposed to trying to feed one guy. Wow they get paid to know very general information. 😂

[@mattrollins7506]

Bills fan here. I’d say given both the difficult schedule and the good remaining talent on the roster, the floor is 9-8. Ceiling is probably 13-4, which would be amazing. The defense should be stout as always and I’m excited to see how we look spreading the ball around in Brady’s offense.

[@Joseph-uv2ud]

AJ Epenesa can be a double digit sacks guy if he gets enough reps. I think Bernard can make that all pro leap this year. Rapp is low key underrated. The D looks better this year.

[@mattrollins7506]

@@Joseph-uv2ud Agree with all of the above.

[@nealanthony3482]

There are three important observations relevant for the Bills in 2024. The Bills went 7-2 in the last 9 games with the new OC. They were 1 play away from beating KC in the playoffs (with six starters out or hurt on Defense) Lastley, Stefan Diggs was non-existent in the last 8 games of the season. #4 Bonus Von Miller has his lighting quick first step back in pre-season training. The Bills will go 12-5. Take that to the Bank (or Vegas)

[@TrillaDC]

I'm surprised they didn't get a better kicker.

[@Dudeamis17]

Diggs was a problem, as soon as they stopped feeding him the ball they went from a 5-5 team to a 7-2 including playoffs team. Slam the over.

[@lukecabello9115]

I think people forget this team was essentially two field goals away from being 13-4... The too many men on the field penalty that lost them the Denver game and the 59-yard field goal in the rain against the eagles that forced overtime... That being said I think this line for them is perfect because I can see them going 10 - 7 or 11-6 and may come down to one of those games where the other team misses a field goal.. I think it's being overstated how much their defense is going to suffer I think their defense is going to be better because they got younger... Personally I think they're going to go 12 - 5.. the Jets and Dolphins to me are slightly overrated... And the Bills obviously have the best quarterback in the division..

[@minuano08]

And did that ... with a decimated defense.

[@flyguy7825]

I’m gonna go under the bills are going to take a huge backseat in my opinion they’ve lost way too many players on defense and Offense I mean you’re putting a whole bunch of pressure on one man Josh Allen to try and fill a lot of holes where the team was projected to be a Super Bowl contender the last 3 to 4 years 8-9 And I think they fire the general manager and Head Coach can’t coach by the end of the year

[@chetjablonski1993]

A huge backseat??? Learn to write

[@chetjablonski1993]

Never happening

[@jasonjeffordsiii7941]

I think Josh will play loose and just hit the open guy instead of forcing it to Diggs. I think you will see less INTs this year out if Josh.

[@PatrickMahomes-GoChiefs]

I like buffalo they a cool playoff team

[@thesedaze2381]

Sam says the replcement for Diggs is a hodge podge of Coleman and MVS. what nonsense. At WR this offense goes through Samuels and Shakir with Coleman as the Gabe Davis replacement.

[@OldManInternet]

I think his point was that it's a collection of 600-700 yard JAGS who will have to establish themselves as #1 receivers. The QB and the scheme could make it work, but no DC is loosing sleep at night because of the Bills skill guys.

[@thesedaze2381]

@OldManInternet He spoke with specificity. We don't have to wonder. We know exactly what he said and it was not poignant commentary. For dramatic effect he named a player who will not be a starter and a player who has yet to play an NFL snap as the replacement for Diggs.

[@bernooski5128]

@@OldManInternet I think that view will change after the first few games. Shakir is gonna be a problem for other teams and Kincaid was already a top 10 TE in his rookie season last year. James Cook returns as a 1,000 yard rusher and I think Curtis Samuel is going to prove very useful with a good QB finally throwing him the ball.

[@vladostrov8676]

@@OldManInternet DC’s don’t sleep at night because of Josh Allen

[@Buffalo-Bills-17]

Buffalo got younger fresh legs that can step up and get the yards done

[@GLA45Amg716]

Watch Chase claypool … just watch !

[@TRX247]

The bills love and admiration is really overblown, the bills have never been as good as everyone says they are. Josh Allen wont be beating Joe Burrow head to head

[@MrDhughes3]

Cocky Bengals fan has entered the chat. Maybe Burrow won't be hurt again. Stay on Bengals fanboy pages.

[@TRX247]

@@MrDhughes3 cocky, Factual? The cocky ones are the ones who haven't achieved while claiming they're so good, yes let's hope everyone stays healthy this season, but there's no doubt about it...we love playing the Bills😏

[@MrDhughes3]

@@TRX247 You speak with experience. 🤣

[@danz1182]

Yeah, the Bills suck. They only have the 2nd most wins in the NFL over the last 5 years. The Bengals are not in the top 10. They had one good year.

[@chetjablonski1993]

Your boy might not even be playing in 2025. He’s injury prone and has already had 3-4 serious career injuries. It’s going to be a miracle if he plays even 3 more seasons. Glass Joe, fragile Joe.

[@BillsMafiosoo]

The jets are going to be the jets come on the dolphins are I'll be the dolphins the pats are the pats post Brady. Josh McDermott babyish Brady think about it. Forget about it. Bills mafia let's goooo.

[@Buffalo-Bills-17]

And we got dalton

[@BullseyeBob1]

This could easily be a 9-8 season. We have no idea what the offense will be able to do. And the defense will be tested. We have almost an entirely new team.

[@davdidit6]

Long time Bills fan. I am excited about what I am hearing about the offense. The defense has me concerned, a lot of change over. I am more realistic with ten wins considering how hard the schedule is. Not just the opponents but just the scheduling in general. A lot of teams got better, I think. 2025, more cap room and bonus high pick, better year. I am willing to bet my money 2026 is that much awaited SB year.

[@Aaron-hc1he]

Appreciate PFF incorporating clutch performance in to the model since the last time I’ve commented. I agree that with the model that elite QBs determine the baseline for a team’s wins. I’d like to see PFF track separation for a WR at the top of the route (right now, my understanding is the separation is calculated at the time the ball is thrown, not the break). Also, I’d like to see some type of metric for time per route to a route leverage “win” (have the DB in trail or DB blocked to the QB). That will give you a true separation stat for a WR.

[@dantheman8152]

They will go 11-6

[@stefanosoderi4152]

This team absolutely needed change and a youth movement ! They couldn’t roll out the same strategy they had been doing the last 4 yrs , it hadn’t gotten a championship ! This team got younger and improved I see this team maybe 11 wins but next yr they will have more money to spend in free agency!

[@LewisFleming-tt3sn]

Bills will go far as Keon Colman and Ray davis take them ...if Ray and Keon really good then Bills will be better then last year

[@markc.1816]

Maybe 8 wins.... Offense will stink it up... Defense will be ezceptional.

[@CP-os1pc]

9-8

[@Texmsx]

Ceiling 10 floor 8

[@95singlecam]

Why everyone keep forgeting about samuel

[@Buffalo-Bills-17]

I haven't forgot about curtis he gonna be a beast mode with keon and cook

[@Buffalo-Bills-17]

Buffalo gonna beat the chiefs we tired of mahomes

[@Buffalo-Bills-17]

We got 2 players from the chiefs on buffalo thats mike edwards and Valdez

[@TW-vl4wj]

10 wins make the wildcard game.

[@johnnymac2001]

GoBills🦬

[@PatrickMahomes-GoChiefs]

I will leave the chiefs for buffalo

[@oldmanmob4659]

Doesn't matter they wont win the Superbowl

[@mrchase7191]

My prediction is 9 and 8

[@bernooski5128]

It's possible that would still win the division. The phins are going to have a hard fall this year and the Jets and Pats are still a dumpster fire

[@jimmyhooks]

found the Bengals glazer 😂😂

[@ashleyhuff9592]

​@@bernooski5128the fins gonna have a,hard fall keep dreaming in ur rebuild mode😂😂😂

[@bernooski5128]

@@ashleyhuff9592 they lost their top CB, their top DT, and their top LB. And this is after one of the worst collapses the sport has ever seen last season. Plus, Josh Allen still owns their asses

[@ashleyhuff9592]

@@bernooski5128 I didn't know x was top cb 👆 lmao wahesd n old u forget the best cb Ramsey still on our team. Sieler is our top dt bud watch some football just got Campbell too. And trying talk about ginkle was our 3rd best lb lmao all replaced with better smarter and cheaper players wink 😉

[@DirtyPol83]

10-7 sounds possible