Prismatic Evolutions Release Week! What To Expect?!

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Good luck on release week! Poke Notify Link: bit.ly/4h9vGxZ Discount Code "NEVERAPHASE25"

[@azure_paladin4706]

I'm only gonna have 9 packs to open. I'm confident each one will be a umbreon.

[@xiahmia15]

Confidence is key

[@PrismaW]

Dreaming too small, each one will be a god pack

[@Pokekitsu]

I for one have faith 😂

[@xiahmia15]

@@PrismaW legendary

[@Hazunaki666]

it is possible you get the God pack and pull all the 9 SIR Eeveelutions.

[@leons9935]

Pokemon officially announced its eevee year, I won't be surprised if that moonbreon hits $2k by end of year

[@Hazunaki666]

3k by end of the year.

[@ApostleThe344]

My guess is 1200 end of year

[@adameramo523]

Spoke to Best Buy this morning, they said their big online restock day is typically Tuesdays fwiw.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

What about in store?

[@IsThisRight]

Glad that other content creators are giving you recognition for what you do. Have you spoken on if you'll be going to any card shows in California/west coast?

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

I should be going to the LA collect a con in March

[@nvrawake]

Your background looked awesome when the lights went to purple. Great vid =)

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Thank you! Cheers!

[@Rainy1970]

Do you think terastal single cards will go down or up when prismatic releases

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Up

[@Ka_Donk87]

End gang! Thanks again man great video and I think it’s awesome you’re being showcased with others on their videos that’s so cool. I’m proud of you. But this release I know everyone is upset and stuff but I’m like super pumped tbh I took off work dude I’m camping at a game store where they will be selling for msrp. And then I’m gonna run around to big box stores with friends to get our hands on stuff. I think it’s gonna be a blast and like just getting my hands on the stuff I’ll be lucky so imo I’m excited I say bring on the chaos lol. I’ll be upset when I put prismatic in my cart on Pokemon center and then I crash and the website deems me a bot and won’t let me log on. That’s the only thing I’m upset about is it’s not a first come first serve it’s a get lucky and hopefully our website doesn’t crash bologna. Thanks again man

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Thanks for the kind words!

[@okidrift7664]

not saying you are the problem but doom and gloom videos are a bummer lates.

[@Pokechico]

I was gonna say the same thing! These videos are helpful but at the same time it makes things worst in a way

[@xiahmia15]

@@okidrift7664 🤔

[@Theu131]

So you’d rather the content you consume to be dishonest ? Weird. Prismatic will be available everywhere on release day, you’ll be able to get as much as you want for msrp.

[@Pokechico]

@@Theu131 can you read ? Everyone knows it’ll be available but not really onces scalpers get to the store and see the stock they will most likely buy all of most of it at least ! If preorders are gone imagine once it’s actually in the stores it’s going to be gone ! For sure bc they can easily make double already

[@Pokechico]

It’s not once store it’s across the country ! I’m sure everyone is going to be ready at these stores to buy as much as they can and remember people got jobs it’s not like they have all day waiting for a store to open to buy cardboard

[@RubexCube1]

This next stretch is kinda the perfect storm. We already know Prismatic and most of Journey together. The Team Rocket set and Unova set will probably be bangers. They will definitely do a SV wrap up set like Crown Zenith, Gen 10 1st set will get hype and 2026 is the 30th anniversary.

[@xfancyfeastx]

I have a PC Etb and 2 booster bundles coming and I’m putting it away as a just in case I can’t get more product. At least I have a little something if things really get hairy. I really hope it’s not a bloodbath for these products and Pokemon just prints this to oblivion. Happened to crown zenith and it recovered quite nicely, it just took a while.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Yeah it took a while for crown but it did happen. They definitely aren’t afraid to print a ton on the Japanese side

[@MaelthasDivine]

it me, hey it me, guys hey it me in the video

[@mikeymendenhall]

I'm confused about how these are selling before the release date.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

@@mikeymendenhall most of these are “pre orders” and the sellers don’t have the product in hand

[@TcgStrategist]

Its not only building onto eachotger there's also the trifecta effect with Terastal... Perfect storm 🌀

[@tobiramatv6918]

Eveelutions from Terestal Festival are rising as well

[@SmiterCardz]

I was going to rip too but my orders got cut so all going into sealed collection

[@justin11204]

I can tell u what will happen, price will increase even more. Prismatic has been out in my country since the 10th and prices have almost doubled nearing the 17th

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

What country are you in and what are the prices right now?

[@rtbear674]

I expect not being able to find any etb

[@teamrocketjoey]

This is going to be pokemon most hyped week of its existence😊

[@JDubKillinKicks]

The Poke Rev cameo is big tings

[@shibbyMB]

FOMO is causing all these massive prices.. they will reprint the crap out of this set. Prices should go down? just got to have some patience

[@ballsislife6018]

What reprints man? You know how many sets have come out and there’s not been many reprints? Not only that, they plan on releasing the original print all the way till September. So earliest a reprint comes is a whole year from release….when the margins are this good the bots come out to play. The only way for pokemon to get this under control and is to keep stocking the damn pokemon center website which they just can’t seem to do. We are screwed short term. Big box retailers don’t care at all.

[@tophcookie7033]

Getting my 1x ETB in Jan 28th It was $80 from Walmart app. I can’t wait. All I wanted for my birthday 😅was

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Congrats on getting one

[@UnlimitedVibesx]

Team Rocket is going to go the craziest. Literally it’s going to bring out the team Rocket of the hobby irl lol

[@bbq1040]

Does anyone think that the heat will come down a little bit after release and channels start doing more openings? The hit rate on SIRs seems to be consistent with the past few sets, so not good. It's hard enough when packs are under msrp, but with the prices now why would anyone open their packs? It's not a good situation for pokemon cards right now.

[@austinh3848]

The V alt art eevolutions are blowing up too.

[@Mjsd1706]

My best bet is just to catch things in store. Tried this morning thought maybe mj would stock walmart early. I'll just keep trying. #endgang

[@juanvaldez4923]

Yea that’s crazy bro so what these ebay sellers are selling the umbreon and haven’t even pulled it yet then turns out it’s gonna be hard as hell to pull and they might not even get the card and the buyer is assed out 😮

[@jfoley1987]

These Sunbreon prices are insane, I can't believe people are actually paying that much for a card from a set that's not even out yet! Some people got too much money lol

[@bradspeckman813]

Yes! Like the darker theme

[@texasfight210]

Chaos, complaining, and crying. These are the expectations lol

[@TheKnownUnknownCollective]

All ship by 1/27 how? lol

[@codyt8541]

I'm just hoping to get some cool pulls!

[@Poketeatime]

I’m so mad GameStop jsut sent me an email with no order # stating that I exceed the amount of units per household for binder collections, I preordered them back in November and the website didn’t say anything about limit per household fuckin baloney i only ordered 10 unites makes no sense

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Dang that’s rough I’m sorry they should honor those orders if they didn’t put a limit in place.

[@PastKidd]

Why do you need 10 binder collections? I'm willing to bet you complain about scalpers aswell

[@Poketeatime]

@@PastKidd I’m trying to open to have at least a decent chance to pull something have you seen pull rates? That’s all i have preordered!!

[@Xan-m9b]

@@Poketeatimewith the pull rates that bad is it even worth it spending that much money this set though?

[@PastKidd]

@@Poketeatime so you decided to buy 10 binder collections which are the worst value for packs out of pretty much everything released? Everyone wants to get annoyed at everyone else but refuse to look in the mirror.

[@macbaker9845]

I’m hoping I can snag a pc etb. Hope I can put in my card info fast enough 😂 Also, I did see you in that pokerev video and was like “hey I know that guy!”

[@alane1000]

crown zenith on top!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@xXxXxXxAllianaxXxXxX]

I’m going to aim for one item each, see what I can get, and then just wait out this wave cause its all gonna crash like it did in 2021

[@erica1898]

Ugh to Prismatic Evolutions. It's too expensive to buy/open right now.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Yeah it's rough right now...

[@cwright1407]

Isn’t it kind of detrimental to the customer base of pokemon that brick and mortar retailers are purchasing exclusive stock from PC and reselling it? I can’t see how that’s not a big no no from Pokémon’s perspective?!

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Yeah it's maybe not the best look

[@PokeCardGiveaways]

🟢 Next up latios 203/191

[@KennyZoobs]

Trading one of my PC etbs for a minty terestal festival umbreon ex and some other singles. Umbreon will be getting graded.

[@sinistur0204]

Their selling for $400 on tcg but $250 on ebay ????

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Correct

[@sinistur0204]

@ makes no sense lol

[@sharkify1010]

Welcome to America! and greetings from Europe, where we still grab packs for under 8-9$ in English.

[@SP-uh9ce]

I was able to buy 11 etbs for $60 each, I’m getting a god pack for sure

[@Hazunaki666]

yes you are. I am sending you good vibe luck.

[@MrCasanova757]

Ima be at target at opening lmao

[@MJIFam]

End Gang!!!

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Legend

[@PokeFam_ComeWatchUs]

I have 2 PC etbs I'm so excited to rip one! Gonna let my kiddo choose she's the lucky one lol

[@golddragon1123]

Expect MAJOR disappointments. Im talking 1 sir every 100+ packs.

[@andyanguiano859]

Hyped 🙌

[@CJFooL22]

End gang!

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Legend

[@sharkify1010]

Frustration aside: The pull rates are pretty standard on the Prismatic Evolutions. It is just becoming a "thing" because most content creator want to create a buzz. That's all. For most SIRs in the modern set, we had a pullrate of 1/65 to 1/86 packs. PokeRev and others, who have opened enough packs, have usually hit the quota on them. What changed is: There are more different SIRs, namely 32 and hitting a specific one is harder. I would consider, that 9 out of 32 are Eeveelutions, which is considered a "good" SIR, has to be taken into account. I know people chase the Umbreon, but it is more blind hype for the card, than actual math, that makes it difficult to get pulled. IR's have been replaced by Pokeball / Masterballs. Usually there are less unique IR's in other sets, than there are Pokeball / Masterballs, so pulling a Masterball just doesn't FEEL like a hit, which is understandable. Not to mention, people paying 15-20$ in the US for a pack is just insane, and makes it harder to swallow the pull rates, which are actually pretty normal. I mean, people pay around 5x what they usually pay for a pack? I mean it's understandable, that the level of frustration is high when you get pack after pack without any hit. Opening cards is rarely profitable, but having dud packs for 20$ just hits different. So all in all, the pull rates are not abnormal. Some people have said, that they expected easier pull rates, because IR's were "missing" so they expected higher probabilities on the 32 SIRs from the set, but Pokemon obviously didn't see it that way.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Yeah like I said in the video pull rates seem like they are lining up with Paldean Fates but the amount of SIRs makes it much harder for a specific card.

[@animallask]

kool

[@DarkXenoGaming]

So glad I got my Moonbreon PSA10 for cheap 💪

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Congrats!

[@dedilusgrim]

I’m sorry I came at you the way I did during the last video, I am someone who does math for a living I am telling you the way that you determine the average of a random possibility is different than the way it is being presented on videos and on TCG player, when you don’t have exact variables such as the full sample size of all packs. 1in64 the average of 64 is 32.5 (this is the lowest average) if you multiply that times the average of cards available to be pulled at that pull rate 1 in32 the average of which is 16.5 it is, 32.5x16.5=536.25 you round this number up and you have the low end of the average 537 you then do that for the high end of the average 64x32=2,048 so the average range to pull any card you want specifically on that list is 537 packs to 2048 packs which presents a different picture than a doomsday scenario that is the current hot topic in the space the actual average pull rate among all packs should be either 16.5x64=1,056 or 32.5x32=1,040. The math works out differently for evolving skies now because it is no longer in print therefore the moonbreon is rarer and the only people who benefit from comparing the two cards in rarity are people trying to hype the card to the moon. It creates fomo and the potential for people to lose their money hard if the set gets reprinted to an good degree, which is why I’m getting upset with it the chances are much higher for you to pull the “new” moonbreon than the older one in the current times so the prices should not realistically be the same for this set that we have no idea of the print schedule but is still in print vs the one that’s not ever going to be printed again and has a finite population of desirable examples. Again I’m sorry I vented the way I did before but this is the reality of the numbers, which may have been close at the launch of evolving skies but at the start of evolving the price of the moonbreon was $350 not the price of1/20th the average starting salary of a normal person. It is not really not a fair comparison in the current climate and people who spend based on it could and likely will lose in the near future with the hype being placed on it.

[@sharkify1010]

Just a fair warning to the creator: The math above is not only wrong, but so many things are just statistically wrong, wrongly applied and badly calculated, that I can't even begin to explain. Surely no one who "does math for a living" is truly claiming, that odds from random packs are higher or lower, because one of the packs has been opened more often.

[@dedilusgrim]

@sharkify1010 let’s turn this into a conversation instead of accusing each other, if I am wrong i will for sure concede but I would like some level of proof that your math is accurate in comparison, my argument is simple, that you take the average of both numbers in the equation and multiply them together to find the low end of the average pull value, I will put it into sections so that you can argue your points and reference sections. 1.the number of the SIR’s in the set is 32 the average of 32 is 16.5. You get the average by adding the numbers up to 32 and then dividing by 32, for example 1+2+3….30+31+32=528/32=16.5. 1.5. the reason you take the average of this number is because if all variables are equal (all SIR in the set are printed the same number of times each) you are statistically unlikely to have a situation where you open every other SIR before hitting the desired card, hence the average. 2. The number of packs needed to pull an SIR is 64 by the current estimation based on the current data available. You can average this number as well to get the low end average of packs needed to open the card you want but that is assuming some things that may be a bit much for this argument so we will not do that for now. 3. To get the true average (range) of packs needed to open a specific card you are looking for you would multiply both numbers the average number of SIR needed to pull the one wanted at random (16.5) and the total number of SIR in the set (32) against the number of packs needed to be opened to reach an SIR (64). The two equations are as follows 16.5x64=1,056 And 32x64=2,048 Making the average range of packs needed to be opened between 1056 packs and 2048 packs. 4. 537 was the lowest end of the average assuming that you average the 1in 64 for Luck and other unknowns such as batching in your favor and whatnot but mathematically was only added to my original comment to give the lowest end average. Mathematically this is the hardest part to quantify and therefore will concede this point as a show of good faith. 5. The reason for assuming the current pull rates of evolving skies for getting a specific card are currently worse that they were originally is because of unknown variables that cannot be quantified easily but let’s attempt, if we make some assumptions of the populations of the moonbreon by taking a fixed dataset like the pop report of all graded copies of moonbreon in the PSA. there are 18,348 copies currently graded by PSA if we assume that the other 6 v max alt arts were printed to the same degree that would be 18,348x6=110,088, then if we take that number and multiply it times the number of packs on average needed to pull a v max alt art 1in 332, so 110,088x332=36,549,216 packs have been opened bare minimum for the average, that means that for the odds to be as good for the old moonbreon to be pulled currently as the new moonbreon is that another exponent of packs would need to exist, and I do not believe that to be the case. And we can assume that they will be printing at least a similar amount overall as they printed of evolving skies of prismatic evolutions, based on this information the chances of pulling an old moonbreon is exponentially lower than pulling the new one. Based on the amount of packs still available or potentially available for each. And even if we want to state that both packs have the same population currently the fact is that a pack still in print will have more made vs a pack no longer in print. 6. The moonbreon was $350 dollars for the highest end likelihood of pulling it time period, and has only now reached the heights of 2100 dollars, the current moonbreon is still available and will be available for at least the next six months, to have the price of it being anywhere near former’s current price is nonsensical in nature and makes no sense on a logical scale. Please if I am wrong anywhere here explain it, and let’s have a battle where our numbers fight not our egos. Thanks and have a great day. 😀

[@sharkify1010]

​@@dedilusgrim Fully agree with your approach on having civil discussions, let's do this. Why I was so aggressive: When talking about AVERAGES, we are talking about single numbers. There is actually no "lower" or "higher" average. When it comes to distribution, we can talk about spreads and standard deviations, but when it comes to simple things as pull rates, Pokemon has decided on how often you will occure an SIR. People have opened a lot of packs and the SIR follow the 1 in 60 to 1 in 80 chance of getting pulled. If you argue that the numbers are WRONG, we can have that discussion, but the numbers of different SIRs doesn't affect the probability of hitting ANY. So as you also go with the 1/64 chance of pulling an SIR, we will tag along with this and treat this as given. Now comes the simple part, assuming that Pokemon doesn't change individual occurance of the SIRs, meaning that there is the same number of Umbreon printed, as there are Espeons and so on, you can say that there are: 64*32=2048 packs for one SPECIFIC SIR. It actually doesn't get simpler than this. What I assume you're doing in the step 1 of your calculation is some kind of prediction WHEN the Umbreon will come. I assume you give it the same chance to be the 1st SIR, as well as the 32nd SIR in this hypothetical scenario. I understand where you come from, but pull rates have actually nothing to do with the single event of pulling it. It stands, that the chance of pulling the Umbreon from Prismatic is still 1 in 2048. Why is your approach limited? First of all with every pack being looked as an independent event, secondly, your approach is not considering, that if you open 2048 packs, you will statistically have doubles and could miss the Umbreon all together. Thirdly you are taking the scenario that there are exactly 2048 packs with 32 different SIRs and that you are guaranteed to hit. Why is this wrong? In the real world, each pack will be 1/2048 to hit it. BUT in your scenario, you ASSUME that you are guaranteed to hit the Umbreon in 2048 packs, actually making the probabilities go: 1st pack 1/2048, 2nd pack 1/2047 and so on. That's where it gets wrong with the math. What you can do is, calculate how high the chance would be for you to get: With 1 pack, you have a 1/2048 chance to get it. With 5 packs, you actually have a 1-(2047/2048)^5 chance to hit it, with 2047/2048 being the outcome, that you don't get the Umbreon. To spare you the calculations: With 100 packs, you have a rougly 5% chance of getting an Umbreon, with 1000 packs your chance is around 39.3% and with actually 2048 packs you have a 63% chance of getting it. Sounds scary, but these are the outcomes. The range you are talking about is actually "fabricated": The range of getting an Umbreon can be from 1 to infinite number of packs. You are talking about averages of averages, which actually doesn't exist in probability. You set it with your calculations on 1056 packs, which gets you roughly a 40% chance of getting it. But pull rates and times of getting the Umbreon have nothing in common, the chance of pulling it is 1/2048 and you can only increase the chance by opening packs. The pullrate is actually ALREADY the average. You can pull it in the first pack, or in the 4096th pack, the pull rate stays 1/2048. So ON AVERAGE, someone needs to open 2048 packs to get the Umbreon. Some people will open 4000 and not get it, some people will open 10 and get 2 Umbreons (very unlikely but possible) and ALL these events boil down to the 1/64 per SIR number, or 1/2048 Umbreon number. As for Moonbreon: If we trust the number of 1/1994 on the Moonbreon you can look at it like this: Since there is no way (as far as I know) to determine, where the Moonbreon is without opening the pack you can just simply look at it like this: If there are 100'000 Moonbreons printed in all the packs, and we opened only 50% of the packs, then 50'000 Moonbreon were pulled and 50'000 are still in packs. So if you buy any pack of Evolving skies (excluding weighted packs or searched packs) you have the same 1/1994 chance of getting a Moonbreon. So you can ONLY make the case, that the pullrates are actually in favour of the Moonbreon, with 1/1994 vs the Umbreon Ex 1/2048. The price, population report etc. are very weak indicators for the price. Demand and supply is actually driving the price here, and the demand is just extremely high. Also, the Umbreon Ex from Prismatic has only reached the levels now, because it is pre-sale. Also what you need to consider: More Hype = More expensive packs = less packs opened = less Umbreon EX on the market. Hope this helps, I know where you come from, but the TL;DR: The pullrate IS already the average. It is not like there is a fixed 2048 packs with 32 DIFFERENT SIR's where you are guaranteed the Umbreon and you calculate the chance of getting it. That's where the math doesn't math. Hope you (and others) understand it a little bit better.

[@juttrock3900]

This is sickening 😢

[@Uncrowned_King_Benz]

kzbin.infomt0ZR6IrceE?si=USqjTTYMPoA8KfC0

[@DreamReaperGaming]

#endgang

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Legend

[@KarloJamisola]

Lets be real here, no one gonna get this producy

[@Dimplehead]

Only thing is the cards arent nearly as good as evolving skies.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Art is subjective and some people like the new ones better

[@DarkXenoGaming]

Expect disappointment

[@tomashernandez-v8s]

Problematic Evolutions

[@clickynote]

I will say, the more of you that hold and don’t open, the more valuable my singles will be since it will keep the supply down.

[@Itwasneveraphasecards]

Yeah it will push single prices up with less people opening