Questioning Conventional Wisdom in the COVID-19 Crisis, with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

Recorded on March 27, 2020
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise-and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” In this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson we asked Dr. Bhattacharya to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science.
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[@hepburndavis296]

One thing is certain, all these measures are unsustainable. Soon, we will start asking “what’s the point?” And get on with our lives.

[@Fourtonmantis28]

New normal dude! Just a pandemic every so often! Globalization was a great idea.

[@markmiller3713]

I totally agree. There's a cost to everything in life, and we have to ask "what am I willing to pay?" for all of this.

[@memshin3]

yes like they did in Italy. you Americans are so narrow minded

[@katme8055]

Hepburn Davis may 1st we will go back to work and take our chances or go homeless and die in the streets

[@FatuousRobertson]

Assuming you have a life to get on with!

[@sarahmangone7785]

I was very sick in March. I can honestly say it was the worst flu I've had in my entire life. I'm almost 62 and it took a week for the fever to entirely break. Once this happened, it turned into a very bad cold and I'm still fighting it one month later. I'm located in SC and the first county that showed up with the Covid 19. You think I could be tested? Answer is NO! They told me to stay in place. My fever reached to 103.2, throwing up, hard to breathe, eyes that felt like they were being pulled out and the list is long....BUT, No test for you, just stay home and get better. Even by the VA Hospital I was actually called and told that if I even felt sick....stay home! What kind of hospitals are we running here?

[@karenlucas1614]

Me too Sarah...ill for 22 days,,,now recovering, slowly. The exhaustion is bad...

[@michaelcarper2185]

Wow. I'm very sorry to hear that.

[@MrCAnandT]

Sarah Mangone sad to hear your predicament. We are / were not prepared...that.s the simplest answer. We were failed by our own govt.

[@pdn-vd5om]

Busy hospitals and full of Covid ... You're alive, waking up every day is a miracle. Stay inside, stay safe.

[@cindybeveridgewright8709]

Hopefully moving forward you can get a test to see if you had CV and recovered and are now immune. I find this test the most helpful in getting American back working again.

[@candisallwein]

Informed consent must be maintained at every point. We are losing it slowly

[@amhayest]

Since I found the interview beyond questing the accepted wisdom, I would like to express my gratitude for both Dr. Jay and Dr. Peter. Please never give up as the majority of the citizens of our planet seek the truth, only the truth.

[@candisallwein]

This is also creating a crisis in financial management in the healthcare industry because we have lost 50% of our volume due to outpatients and elective surgeries lost. Employees are being downstaffed.

[@rogerb5615]

Candis: Excellent point that most of us would never consider.

[@gordonstark6379]

Absolutely love this guys honesty and the fact he stuck his neck out to say what he honestly feels. "Well Done, good on you Doc"

[@shaunozs1ra92]

The denominator is never actually known. It’s a best guess. At no time is the entire population tested for the common cold and flu.

[@ashlyndvorak1833]

THANK YOU to all the Doctors who are committed to the INTEGRITY of their profession! It takes inconceivable courage to tell the TRUTH instead of simply what you are TOLD TO DO and say. I greatly appreciate your service, honoring the Hippocratic Oath. I will repost on FB and discuss it with my counterparts! HUMANITY HAS A CHANCE WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU!!!

[@shayrenae4139]

Thank you for your honesty. People appreciate that. If you don't know, say you don't know.

[@valloveinspires]

Thank you Dr. Jay for being honest and courageous. I appreciate the forthrightness of this interview. Prayers and blessings for your family back in India.

[@EricHurner]

Very interesting discussion. Thank you. But I don't think I'd like to be in the US right now at all. I live in Switzerland and am grateful every day for being here, where the health care is excellent, the laws are functional but not draconian and the whole issue has never become some political controversy polarising the entire nation. It's been dealt with practically and in a manner that the vast majority of the country supports. It's called living in a democracy, and that has not been significantly undermined in this entire process.

[@sunnydlight2375]

The american people have been roadblocked by a cancerous narrative and a vile select group of the lowest common denominator picking up the microphone and crashing the party.

[@pathas9511]

By far, the most important exchange in this interview takes place at 4:58 to 6:30. The Director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious diseases states that the corona virus mortality rate is ten times higher than the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. (i.e. that the corona mortality rate is 1%). The doctor interviewed refers to this rate as the "Measured Case Fatality Rate" He then states that the rate cannot be known with specificity because the denominator is unknown. The denominator is unknown because it does not include people who have recovered which is determined by testing for antibodies - and that still has not been done. Therefore, the Director states AS A FACT that which is clearly unknown according to the doctor. The doctor suggests that the corona mortality rate could be ten times LESS than the flu. Therefore, it can be said that the economic shut down was based on projections based on speculative assumptions as opposed to forecasts based on assumptions with reasonable foundation in fact. As an expert witness the Director's testimony would be inadmissable as evidence in a court of law.

[@annetteyoutube742]

March 27, 2020 - this interview was recorded. April 7, 2020 - 11 days later: Will you conduct Part 2 of this interview? It appears now you will have quite a bit more *real* life data to improve your accuracy.

[@dr.briandirussa895]

Outstanding interview. Thank you both for your rational voices amidst the fear and hysteria.

[@stringqi]

I've read Dr Bhattacharya's WSJ editorial. In that piece, he extrapolated data from the small Italian town of Vo, where the entire population was tested after Italy's first recorded COVID 19 death took place there around February 21. At the time, 90 out of 3300 residents tested positive, about a 2.7% incidence of infection. Most of the infected were asymptomatic. The premise of the editorial is pretty much the same as the premise of this interview; the infection rate could very well be much higher, thus lowering the mortality rate. But I don't quite see its relevance in making a case for relaxing social distancing measures. Ironically, the followup to the Vo study is that all residents were quarantined after testing and the virus was irradicated in 14 days. Although ratios do put figures in perspective, sometimes looking at absolute numbers can be more immediately useful. When we see a spike in COVID 19 deaths that overwhem healthcare systems, ratios can wait while we all stay home. Another thing that must be considered is the rate of disease transmission, and that of COVID 19 seems to be about 2.5 times that of the flu. Do we really know the potential difference in economic damage that would occur if we simply rode this out in lockdown versus re-opening the economy while the virus still remains active?

[@cherylking646]

Thank you for all of your honesty. For putting yourself out there.. An updated follow-up would be a great thing. I look forward to hearing more from you guys.

[@PhilBuckles]

What about the thought that there are many deaths which are being attributed to COVID-19 which would have happened anyway due to influenza or pneumonia or respiratory failure? As a result the count of COVID-19 deaths is artificially higher than it should be.

[@hawkarae]

I am standing in the middle of my back yard crying with relief. I'd about driven my brain off a cliff and pushed my family to the homicidal brink chewing on all the things that make me go"Hmmmm?!?" about this whole thing. Common sense is a bad ass if we would but listen. Thank you gentlemen, profoundly and sincerely. Courage can be found...

[@jeanroeder5534]

Erica Rae Hinton McKelvey , Please write your governor.

[@davidhurt410]

This is to push a depopulation agenda through vaccines.

[@venusin1st]

There is another agenda...Thank you for your insight.

[@timtrewyn453]

We are not going to get accurate data on this for some time. What we can gauge is the patient load on hospitals and their staffs. These guys look well rested. Many of our doctors and nurses are not well rested. That's a significant indicator. The economy is not entirely shut down. Health care systems, utilities, first responders, construction, and many vital trades continue to work. Everybody needs to guard against hyperbole.

[@baddad18]

Thank you - totally agree.

[@roberteckert]

Tim Trewyn including you?

[@MillieMe05]

Enough of the economy is shut down that it will result in economic devastation

[@williamwolfe8708]

Yes, honesty would be very helpful. Too bad we have a society driven by lie after lie. The more creative the lie, the more energic the societal response.

[@solgato5186]

You can thank the hammer of Bernays for that.

[@kdub1242]

You should thank the liar in chief in the White House for that.

[@lindabestland1954]

With all due respect, doctor; They know exactly what they are doing.

[@stephendeluco971]

Peter I appreciate you having Jay on I liked gaining his insight. If I may, I'd recommend you having Dr Michael Osterholm, author of Deadliest Enemy which was published in 2017. He can provide some excellent insight on pandemics and how we might move forward. Thank you.

[@lesam424]

Thank you

Perhaps he can replace Dr. Fauci

[@jwsuicides8095]

Good to hear two sensible, knowledeable people discussing this. Thank you.

[@Galenus66]

Professor Bhattacharya, I stopped watching you at your statement about globalization. If anything globalization should be stopped and the entire force behind that drives it. At least in its present form. As a global human community, we should aim towards local diversity, sustainability in synch with nature, less prone to centralized control as we know by now where that leads us. The root of this entire plandemic lies with the paradigm of power, greed, and control that ravages the world presently. If anything the modern technological exponential growth should be slowed down and reassessed through a different lens, more akin to natural cycles and spirituality than financial profitability and seemingly eternal economic growth. I hope you see the links between the present global crisis and medicine. Both systems need to change. Profoundly.

[@hippiecowgirl4231]

What do you mean it took everyone by surprise? No it didn’t . We have known that this was coming

[@A1rsoftKid]

Excellent interview. Unfortunately I am in NY and my perspective is from a place that’s infested. I know 18 people who died personally and 6 in ICU right now. Of the deaths there will be no funerals or goodbye or hospital waiting rooms. This is real.

[@DouglasJohnsonILAttorney]

thank you for the honesty

[@michaeledwardhunter]

Bravo, D. Bhattacharya!

[@wekanduit]

Remain utterly honest! Your colleagues are the ones whom need to get with the program Jay!

[@inocentaewart2350]

Dr Bhattacharya, thank you for sharing your experience, thoughts and plans to help with Covi 19. You are sending people a message of hope. I pray that you will be listen to and will get your studies done. Bendiciones for you and your family. inocenta

[@paulorourke327]

Excellent information! Thank you for this. Can we get an update?

[@ralphw3636]

Great interview! Very informative and rational opinions expressed.

[@ecoallison3334]

Awesome, a scientist without an Agenda :) Thank you!

[@taracarter8090]

Thank you for stepping out and speaking the truth to everyone!

[@adamblister6005]

James Cameron is asking some great questions

[@jamescorletta]

Thanks to Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and Peter Robinson! Honest open information! Please keep up your excellent work! Stay healthy and safe!

[@bballgtr]

Enjoyed the MOST Important segment with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. This needs a great deal of follow-up. Thank you!

[@FillTaylor]

A provocative discussion -- and I mean provocative in a good way, even though I take issue with Dr. Bhattacharya's stated (and perhaps completely understandable) perspective in favor of globalism.

[@paulwade1405]

"Everyone was taken by surprise." It didn't have to be that way. There were multiple DoD documents spelling out exactly what was going to happen. They were all ignored.

[@markdominick3511]

God bless you (if it exists), Mr. Robinson. I thank my lucky stars for voices like yours.

[@May-xt9pv]

The best info on covid19, even though it’s a few weeks old. I’d love an updated interview! Professional, objective & honest. Thank you!

[@thebourg]

This was a refreshing discussion amidst all of the uncertainty and mudslinging. Thank you.

[@knightsmantra6883]

Look up Forbes 2010 article WHY WHO FAKED A PANDEMIC

[@grandpied]

Wow good find!

[@martinboulay6218]

The fatality rate should be number of deaths divided by ( number of deaths + number of recovered) D/(D+R). Using the number of infected people as denominator is wrong because these cases are still in process, they can go one way or the other. We got to count fatality rate with the outcome. In 10 years from now, when this will be over and all cases will be closed, then we can say that we had X cases and Y deaths and death ratio was X/Y.

[@richardwhite8794]

Thank you for sharing your insight and knowledge. Keep fighting the good fight.

[@maureenwalker2560]

My question is based on four assumptions: 1) That maximum data of all kinds is being collected 2) That there are already large enough numbers in certain categories to make it worthwhile querying data 3) That we know a population of people that got infected 4) That we know a population of people who have been long-time recipients of hydroxychloraquine for its already customary uses. QUESTION: Is there any comparison yet possible between long-term hydroxychloraquine recipients (for lupus, arthritis, malaria etc) and those who have never received it, in terms of likelihood of infection, severity of disease, survival? Seems to this layperson that current data might already yield that.

[@gcbranco3220]

Thank you peter. Excellent as usual!

[@donaldschaefer6860]

Thank you Dr. Bhattacharya and Mr. Robinson for this very informative discussion.

[@davideasterwood5844]

327 million people is the population of the United states! If the mortality rate is on the low end at 1%! 1% of 70% of the 327 million people is a huge number! That's what it would take to get a immunity as a country! Anyway you look at it, the death's rate it would take would be million's!

[@DonKarp]

Please make comparisons by total deaths, not rates. The infectivity seems much higher than other flues. That needs to factored in, too.

[@karenlucas1614]

People die...when are we going to get over that fact? 300,000 people in the USA die from smoking every year, we still smoke. 200,000 Americans die from obesity, we still get to eat our donuts. Thanks for this interview. I agree with everything said.

[@pattyann321]

Excellent report and inquiry - thank you. Please update with new info after you have had a chance to test and study more.

[@CasualSaints]

This is a very well done, very honest interview. Thank you.

[@t.a.b.8376]

Thanks so much for this information.

[@elhache7160]

Very intelligent discussion. Thank you

[@bessienash583]

I thank you for asking the hard questions.

[@Mslindabelinda]

thank you for your honesty!

[@nathanrhodes4131]

I'm glad you've taken to this format!!

[@oliviamiller7434]

Nathan Rhodes, me too. He’s a great communicator.

[@ranadeau]

Exosomes!

[@gregoryklein3311]

Bless you Doc...pray for your protection

[@tonylogan4092]

The US health care system is an abomination. Today I called to try to set up obtaining a new primary doc after returning from Mexico where I was for 2 months. The city of El Paso's largest hospital system (Tenet) said I would only get an appointment 5 weeks from now! I am 68 y/o, and have diabetes, high blood pressure, and a cpap machine. In addition I have an extremely painful non healing wound on my leg/ foot that has not healed for 5 years. Meanwhile I have park system employees screaming at me that the parks are closed and to get out while I try to exercise there! In addition I used to work for this hospital system as an RN... They love their RNs NOT.

[@robertbeach6446]

What is the death toll now, April 6, 2020?

[@sheilamullins4417]

I would ask question what is the efficacy of vaccines? If I heard you correctly it's the ultimate but we have flu vaccines every single year which seem to have anywhere from 10 to 50% efficacy in the prevention of the flu and when you get a flu vaccine they tell you it will not prevent the flu it will just make it so that you are going to be less sick. Is my understanding correct? Also it seems to me that therapeutic make more sense because if there's a cure then we don't have to worry. I'm listening to this now in October going back did the time frame of March when this was. It seems that there is a lot more nefariousness chicanery from Governors and mayors who have a zero spread policy and are still locking everything under the sun down

[@FAKos-np7rh]

Great guys. Thank you both !

[@ishootbvi9749]

Any update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. This is an excellent piece by the way. Thank you

[@aaronbarlow4376]

All about the Great Reset.

[@MaryKangas]

This video is the most informative piece I have seen - thank you so much for showing this = to both of you... ALL should watch the follow up Video as well.. I am pretty certain I had COVID in December and did not get tested at that time. I was buying items from China DIRECT = person to person with a 9 day transit time. I do believe I had it... yes, I do... I would be more than willing to give plasma to someone that is sick.. however, it seems like a person that "think" they may have had it needs to have proof-positive before they can get considered to donate..

[@vincepaul3302]

took everyone by surprise????? event 201

[@ceciliasperry663]

Thank you!!🕊

[@ramonromero175]

Thanks very much for your honesty

[@candisallwein]

Thank you for your courage Keep it up

[@dempseyspringfield284]

I just came across this video. Only if a large portion of the population has been infected and remained asymptomatic will the denominator be large enough to reveal that the mortality rate is lower than 1% (it runs about 2.5% in the USA currently). We do have a partial measure. Currently there is too little testing, I admit that, but the percent of positive test in a population you would think is more representative of infected cases runs less than 20%, (USA 422,858 positive cases with 2,188,330 test) except in Spain where it is 41%. It hard to imagine that the percent of patients in the general population (no symptoms) will be greater than 20% and likely will be lower. That would keep the denominator low and the mortality rate at least 1%. We need to both test for active infections and evidence of antibodies before we can relax.

[@ariadnac.3228]

27:03 "this is part of the cost of globalization" truest words ever spoke.

[@timmclaughlin1787]

This was worth watching, thank you.

[@bigskyaz2384]

Thank you for this video. It is very difficult to find people who know how to run statistical analysis

[@terryg5109]

World Economic Foundation (WEF) to push for World Currency due to the crushing of the economy?

[@chriswagner9778]

Thank you, finally, the unalienable truth!!

[@bigheadedmartian]

This has been a Sy-op from the start !

[@julieandrews4921]

HI there, this is a very interesting, level headed, honest appraisal which is so valuable during this whole situation. So thank you for that. My question is now, at the beginning of May, what is the update, where do I find that?

[@hippiecowgirl4231]

Isn’t the serum treatment along the same lines as was used to treat the Ebola patients in the U.S. ?

[@johngibson2884]

Pure Logic...Thank you ...so rare these days

[@caseycampbell1386]

Excellent piece gentleman.

[@rosebud3511]

Thank you for honest, intelligent insights/perspectives.

[@partytill10]

PCR test is a method of finding tiny amounts of a specific protein (in this case claimed to be unique to covid-19 but that is also what they say about PCR for HIV which is not unique to HIV at all), and amplifying it enormaously so that it can then be detected. So you could have an absolutely tiny amount of a protein which supposedly indicates a tiny amount fo virus, far too little to cause disease, and still test positive as if you have an active infection.

[@iwannatalktosampson]

I've told people exactly this prior. When I found this video, I linked it to the same people. They still say I'm an idiot, and what I'm saying (and what this doctor is saying) is just a conspiracy theory. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[@pinkyhotmessx69]

I love Uncommon Knowledge

[@roslewis9923]

This is one of the best discussion that I have heard. Thank you. I have a scientific training and am shocked at how little the intelligentsia know about science in the 21st century. We need a better basic science education

[@evanwinterhalter898]

I think it is ridiculous to say that the flu mortality rate doesn't suffer from the same denominator inaccuracy... Lack of testing, or confirmed cases is always an issue with data collection on viruses. And if you look at how aggressively we are testing, I'd be willing to bet the data we have is even more accurate than seasonal flu data.

[@choicesofpagecounty7843]

My 32 year old daughter was hospitalized in the medical ICU for more that 30 days for respiratory failure. She was not tested for COVID 19, How would I go about getting her tested for the anitbodies. All roads lead to diagnosis of COVID 19

[@13teres]

thanks for a good info

[@williamwolfe8708]

Better to call it monitoring, not surveillance -- but no matter what you call it, it conflicts with basic freedoms, so, Houston, we have a problem.

[@lg6045]

It would be nice if Peter could not interrupt so much, so the Dr. could finish his thoughts. Perhaps keep notes and ask at a later time. Just sayin'

[@PEMF.Hydrogen.LLLT.Experts]

Really good, thanks!

[@damselflymoldavite8145]

it's been 15 days - follow-up?

[@alanrobinson2229]

Is Italy occuring in States?

[@markschmitz5038]

No, Italy loses thousands every winter and spring. It's an older population who tend to smoke and greet with kisses. Also, the health system there isnt as well funded as in other countries like Germany and USA. They have less hospital beds. At any rate the actual total number of seasonal deaths hasn't risen this year.

[@micheleprince2799]

The fact that the denominator is unknown drives the public reaction into panic. Therefore it is irresponsible for govt over reaction, conversely we have the the doctor fauci's saying "BUT what if we are wrong?" However I ask for all of our learning, which is immense, are we unable to isolate the nature of covid 19. This defies common sense which means it IS A plandemic.

[@weirdkidtum8477]

The guy who patented the virus was reaĺly excited to drop a vaccine before anything else

[@pamsmith7107]

Michele Prince .....it’s a fear based pandemic!!

[@onerider808]

Very informative; thank you. I would point out the only questionable thing I heard; I find it ludicrous when people compare this to war. I feel safe in saying no one who has been in an actual war would ever make such a nonsensical statement. “Well, it feels like war...” come on man, be a scientist. How would you know what war feels like if you’ve never been in one? I propose clear thinking, action based on facts, and the end to hyperbole such as these war comparisons as effective ways to move forward. Thanks again.

[@samhill9267]

OH NO! Another "FOLLOW THE DOLLARS" "Never let a serious crisis go waste!"

[@craigreynolds4509]

Thank you so much for making this video. I know you will take a lot of crap for it but more people need to talk about this. Don't ever think you did or said something wrong. Those people that are attacking these guys and saying things like "lives are being lost every day how can you suggest we don't lock everyone up for two months. If it saves just a few lives its worth it!!! How dare you suggest otherwise."....I've got this to say to you. In 2018 80,000 people died of the flu in the United States. 80,000 of your fellow Americans DIED of the flu two years ago and what did you do or say? I bet you didn't even notice it happened. What kind of person does that make you? Interesting how 80,000 people died two years ago of the flu and most of us never noticed. As of yesterday we've had 22,116 deaths from the Covid-19 virus. So if you let 80,000 people die one year and not do anything or even notice it you don't get to attack a Doctor that's working hard to protect all of us by saying or implying he's reckless or doesn't value life. He was not only right about how many deaths would result from economic hell some people want to unleash. Millions of people without jobs for a couple more months. Actually deaths and long term suffering that would result is way more than what that virus can do. Suicide...domestic violence deaths/violence...death from crime...depression that turns into death because people just don't care...Go to the next level. The kids of the people that commit suicide or have to live with domestic violence. Some will suicide or will be violent. That type of death and suffering just keeps growing. Millions and millions of people are unemployed now. They are going to be very angry and rightly so. The government doesn't care about them. They gave people $1200 which is basically gone when they get it. In that same stimulus package they put in a $1.7 million dollar give away to 43,000 taxpayers that make more than a million dollars. Trillions to the big corporations and banks. Average of $1.7 million to every millionaire in the country. $1200 for the rest of us. Lots of guns...millions that had a life one day and the next it's gone...and a government full of people that are busy with their next round of multi Trillion dollar extraction of wealth from this country. Maybe instead of attacking a Doctor who is trying to help us all you should wake up and look at the people who are stealing your future and more importantly your childrens future right now right in front of you. They did it in 2008. They are doing it right now. They have screwed this country so much I don't think it will handle anybodies 2-3 more month lock down. Your social security and medicare will be gone soon. They've been trying for years. Now they will insist we can't afford it anymore. Some how they always have Trillions for Corporations and Wars that make them rich but we can never afford anything for us peasants.