Rapid Emerging Market Growth Insanely Bullish For Commodities: Louis Gave

[@CommodityCulture]

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[@tedthedog359]

Louise doesn’t turn up much but when he does he is worthy of your time

[@CommodityCulture]

100%

[@blaineturnacliff7907]

This dude is spot on. Since 2017, when Xi stated “houses are meant for living, not for speculating”, the percentage of new loans issued to RE developers basically fell off the chart. No one really listened , but they should have. Beijing has made it clear they will not bail out the developers who have overextended and overbuilt and then got caught with unfinished projects and no new funds to finish. Beijing will gradually take these assets over and in general make the little buyers whole as much as possible. But the prices will have dropped substantially from what they were originally worth. And the developers will be made to pay or go to jail or both. With a cut off to the RE market, all that available capital has been finding its way into other areas of the economy, including EVs, solar and Li batteries, but it’s much bigger and wider than those industries . Now as of spring 2024, we are seeing the start of a sustained resurgence of the chinese economy with the manufacturing PMI breaking 50 and holding . Hence as well why we have the Americans complaining about chinese “overcapacity “ and china flooding the world with everything. It will be interesting though , how the upcoming 2024 / 2025 2:33 USA / global meltdown will affect china. Some think they will escape like during the great financial crisis, mainly unscathed , but with the decrease in global demand, that seems unlikely.

[@Michael-qt5kg]

Great guest. His knowledge and perspective on China has value given his history in and around the country. Sending our two federally reps to China was absolutely embarrassing. His view on emerging countries and China being a significant fuel to their growth is eye opening and further reinforces my views of a commodity super-cycle. My biggest macro concern remains the hyper level of debt in the world. It can substantially limit options going forward and will further and will most certainly result in even more market manipulation going forward (eg. Interest rates).

[@CommodityCulture]

Great comment, thanks for sharing!

[@reinhard7572]

This fellow is very good and different to the usual "experts"

[@CommodityCulture]

Absolutely agree, always a fascinating take from Louis.

[@MrSteveCee]

Incredible interview. Louis always delivers well thought out insights.

[@CommodityCulture]

Absolutely agree.

[@jennyadams108]

A great interview. Well done Jesse! Louise' brilliant and in-depth analysis are worth gold! Thank you both.

[@CommodityCulture]

Thank you for watching and agree, Louis is so underrated.

[@nickhornsey5719]

Great interview Jesse..

[@orresearch007]

very intelligent and informative session Thank you, Louis

[@CommodityCulture]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@Jako8557]

Great guest, very informative and enjoyable, thank you well worth watching...

[@CommodityCulture]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@londonwiz8127]

I like a guest who really looks like they can take a punch. Louis is certainly that. And, on a completely unrelated note, are you going to try and get Danielle DiMartino Booth on?

[@CommodityCulture]

I am trying to get Danielle on the show for sure.

[@friendlychat34]

Dude this guy rules, unique perspectives and very eloquent, thank you!!!!

[@CommodityCulture]

Glad you enjoyed it, I always love chatting with Louis.

[@JohnTaylor-ts8wk]

One point … Gave says that Gold in the west is a strory of losing faith in institutions such as banking and that isn’t happening. I disagree there. That is true for EM’s, but for the west it has always been about greed and FOMO entering the precious metals sector. Precious metals are weak in the west because the greed/FOMO still belongs to the tech sector, which includes Crypto. My whole bet here is that producing miners are driven by western investors only, so they are weak, but the EM demand for gold will ultimately drive FOMO into the sector. Money in western capital markets tends to rotate between asset classes, tech vs value is a common rotational theme, and under-performing miners vs high priced metals will be seen as “value” on the next significant rotation.

[@fredcrossman5133]

He said it was coming when the West wises up and gets involved

[@ThomasThomasThomas-t5p]

Great guy

[@vanaverbeke]

Louis father (Charles) just advised to switch from yuan sovereigns bonds to japanese yen as yen is 3 standard deviation from it's average and the fact that goods in Japan are anormaly cheap in other currencies. This is for the defensive part of "institut des libertés" portfolio that is now gold/yen.

[@simongard-e7e]

Can't agree more on Louis' comments - he is right to be bullish on EM and commodities in general. Fiscal policies for most nations will remain stimulative especially with elections taking place, fiat currencies will be the asset that suffers

[@michaelfitzgibbons7851]

Great interview!

[@CommodityCulture]

Glad you found it useful.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Costa Rica has a phenomenal fiscal policy

[@peterchung7151]

Excellent - as usual for Mr Gave

[@jeffsurfanderson]

I tend to agree with the majority of this guy even though they having real estate problems they are still a producer of the world economy which was different than the United States 2007 2008 collapse cuz we are not a producer anymore we're more of a financial institution so our residential housing market crash killed us but in China it would be a different story cuz they have manufacturing to keep them afloat

[@Userhfdryjjgddf]

They have offices in Hong Kong and bejing??? Zero rights when offices get raided. Be safe. Find yourself on the wrong side of that govt. We cant help you.

[@billt3845]

He is a Chinese fan boy. Not a legitimate interview. He is talking his own book.

[@fredcrossman5133]

Then short China. You can tell everyone how to short it on your national broadcast interview

[@silverbullet1352]

This guy is very interesting and intelligent, but on Covid, he is clearly no virologist or epidemiologist.

[@CommodityCulture]

You don't need to be a virologist to understand that it was not dangerous at all for the vast majority of people and the measures undertaken by governments to "slow the spread" were completely ineffective and ridiculous.

[@silverbullet1352]

@@CommodityCulture This is a nonsensical and nonscientific response. I am not sure if the Canadian or the Frog is responding to this. Let's try it your way: hide the elderly and guess who might be hospitalized or die and do business as normal. Problem is that kids transmit Covid to often times unhealthy parents or grandparents. The great thing about your Monday morning restrospective plan to this black swan event is that it never has to be tested in the real world before you make the claim. What if your way resulted in 2 or 3x the deaths? Either the host or the guest should know this. It is fun to watch experts in one field pretend that they are authorities in another one. The conference calls that were run three months into the pandemic (as the guest claimed he did) were inane considering that no one did know what exactly they were dealing with.