The Presidential Puzzle: Trump's Win and Expected Stock Returns | Rational Reminder 333

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Ben going full finance bro with his drip now

[@thomas6502]

Always a great listen. Thank you! (Also, aftershow ftw!)

[@josephniblock6093]

Hey Ben, I just wanted to say that I started watching your videos five years ago, and now I’m only a year away from completing a master’s degree in financial planning and taking the CFP. You inspired me to pursue a career in the financial planning industry, and I’m incredibly grateful for all the knowledge I’ve gained through your channel over the years.

[@rationalreminder]

Congratulations, and well done! -Ben

[@conw_y]

Thanks Ben for (trying) to keep us investors sober and sane. Still riding the elephant (now in two senses of the word).

[@owlegrad]

Does hair cause promotions or do promotions cause hair? What’s the causation directionality on that one?

[@TravelsT-j6h]

I appreciate how they keep their political views out of the discussion. Whether we love or hate trump or any politician, we can’t change it. So what it is important is understanding the impacts so that we can manage our finances appropriately.

[@Bonez1999]

Nice. New Rational Reminder video before Turkey.... Happy Thanksgiving!

[@DougPagnutti]

Grover Cleveland was the only other non-consecutive president (1885-1189 and 1893-1897)

[@thrashertm]

Came here to say this.

[@Ljcoleslaw]

Wow amazing that Macklemore knows so much about investing

[@gmarks1559]

Ben rockin the Pata-Gucci

[@TheUnlistedOne]

Haven’t been here in a while and I miss the old baldy podcast duo. But maybe I am biased or timing the podcast market 😂

[@FlagstaffChief]

Academically interesting, but hard to use in real life. Lots of variables ignored. Would be interesting to see the chronological variation of these phenomena. 33:00

[@vyrwu]

Count me in towards the enjoyers of the recent content. It feels so fresh and engaging! I gotta say though, while I appreciate the home-brewed intro, it is a little cringy. This episode was brilliant though, Mark is a mega co-host 💪

[@rationalreminder]

Little cringe never hurt anyone. -Ben

[@rui569]

For someone with a regular social media presence, Mark still takes most comments to serious it seems. It's a wild wild world.

[@willsamuel6750]

The problem is, we only have n=46 presidents to analyze this model on. And, we don’t even have stock returns for a lot of those presidencies. So we are dealing with an extremely small sample size which is just not that robust

[@FlagstaffChief]

Starting with Herbert Hoover, this study covers the administrations of only 16 presidents, and until Reagan most of them dealt with either a split Congress or a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. And it’s the House that initiates all tax legislation. 52 years under Democrat presidents, 46 years of Republicans (starting with 1927).

[@konsya7425]

Hey, just started getting into investing and was wondering what playlists would you recommend to watch to kind of get a background. I dipped a little into crypto and made a decent profit but would like to get more into stocks and have some more context about what I'm doing. Great podcast by the way.

[@TheBasicStuff]

Ben avoided lifestyle creep via his hair rather than splurging on material stuff. Similar to how Zuck revamped himself.

[@TheFreeRunPorject]

Does this effect hold with the Canadian market and politicians, or do Canadians care more about American stock risk premiums and therefore this effect is washed out?

[@rationalreminder]

Someone in the RR community ran the numbers for LPC and CPC and the same effect is there. -Ben

[@ib23579]

It seems the Presidential Puzzle could be explained by small sample size. There were so few presidents in the relevant time period. In general, the idea that a typical president has significant influence on the economic activity is overblown.

[@rationalreminder]

That’s the opposite of what the model says. Economic activity influences elections, not the other way around. -Ben

[@ib23579]

@@rationalreminder Can the model predict election outcomes? It stands to reason that economic activity and elections influence each other in various ways. I just find it hard to believe that a simple model can explain the influence and lead to anything actionable.

[@MischaRiedo-gd9sy]

Mark you‘re a great addition to the show. Don‘t let anyone make you think otherwise.

[@daveschmarder-1950]

Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th US President.

[@jonathankr]

My smooth brain says buy high dividend, low p/e agriculture stocks.

[@nathanielcoster1826]

We need another crypto/bitcoin dedicated episode to continue that discussion in the after show! With the craze recently, it wouldn't hurt to revisit the facts.

[@Matthias31415]

There is so much story telling and hope in Bitcoin and crypto in general. There is a lot of coverage and interest since the price exploded, but I would love to hear a more in depth Rational Reminder dedicated to what is fact and what is just talk. Cheers :)

[@Kep19901]

USA 🇺🇸

[@aaronhall5715]

My concern is that Trump measures his success with the success of the stock market and if there's a correction in the first or second year, what will he be doing to prop it up?.....and will it add to and bring forward a much larger problem down the road up in the timeline? I'm invested in the US markets and don't plan on doing anything drastic like selling up or shorting the markets but I wonder what's the hedge? Is it Bonds or (god help me) Crypto?