Ray Dalio on Career, Market Cycles, China Debt

Nov.19 -- Ray Dalio, co-chairman and founder at Bridgewater Associates, discusses his career, his views on management strategy, and the outlook for investing in China. He speaks with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz at the Bloomberg Opinion Masters in Business event. Ritholtz's opinions are his own.

[@upchuck619]

Ray Dalio is not only an icon for our generation to learn to understand the economy, but he’s also so humble that it’s easy to miss just how significant his observations are

[@SuperKonkari]

He was not always humble, but certainly humbled by experiences.

[@DaviMourao]

@@SuperKonkari Which actually makes it more interesting, since being arrogant (he will be the first one to admit that) led to his 80s crisis fiasco.

[@MindDataAI]

I literally typed the same thing even before reading your comment!

[@Caek_daddy]

In 21 lessons for the 21st century by Harari, he talks about how humans think in stories rather than facts and logic. He says that humans usually use their intellect to reinforce the stories they believe rather than seeing if their beliefs/stories are actually true. I think Ray's experience with the markets(or anyone) lead to thinking logically because believing false things in the markets leads to pain. I also think politicians are very big on stories compared to facts :/

[@Re3iRtH]

You realize that it's all an act? Read his books.

[@SpeakChinglish]

Maybe wisdom comes with age, I just find Ray Dalio so humble, polite, nice tempered, patient, intelligent and wise. He is even teaching everyone about economics and etc via KZbin videos. For someone who is so rich, it is amazing to see he care so much about other people. We need more people like him in the world.

[@arminius6506]

Lol these cyber warriors just can't help themselves, look at these morons trying to hit Sun with their Ak-47s

[@XuFei]

The booklist from the second question (32:55): The Lessons of History by Will and Ariel Durant The Hero With a Thousand Faces by Joseph Campbell The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy (particularly this one)

[@tomislater]

Thanks!

[@russram210]

Woah

[@legendaryecomleads7885]

Thank you!

[@fne1198]

Also 25:25 "Destined for War" by Graham Allison

[@yewpohoh]

one of the few man who is able to address 1) ego barriers 2) Blind spot problems. How to know what you do not know? ray dalio idea meritocracy is one of the solutions. love his books n articles. i have seen too many in the financial industry talking gibberish and voodoo , Ray is a beacon of light. Thank you for your ideas and books

[@jeremiahbarlow1924]

Ray Dalio, you have a beautiful mind! I could listen to you for hours and hours and never get tired of your insight! Thank you for sharing.

[@andychang2739]

When it comes to macro economists, or finance guys, or any other spectators and analysts of the economy, there's no one who I trust more than Ray Dalio.

[@davidmaes-gallegos4772]

Ray Dalio: American Hero. Hopefully US Treasury Secretary in the next US Administration. He has the best people, we will need him.

[@fastian7956]

His style of conversation is so natural and forthcoming that it strikes a chord every now and then and allows one to reflect inwards and outwards in a more practical and doable way. Amazing.

[@gambotage]

Really did not know a lot about Ray Dalio but that was a very well-spent hour of my time. Thank you for this interview, just mindblowing

[@senorhedvoycez6017]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eGq7eIimhr-MaZo

[@southalpha9569]

The China debt Q&A at the end was the best. You can desagree with Ray all you want about China, but you have to respect that he's only following his process and that's what we all should be doing.

[@231wildy]

Anyone who had "fell hard" financially would surely concur with much of Ray's beliefs and principles. Yes, the most important take away is his humility about him predicting wrongly about the market in 1982. One cannot be too certain. I like to quote this from Howard Marks' story of the one horse race. Even if one is so certain about an outcome, something else can happen instead. Appreciate Ray Dalio for his generosity in sharing his lessons and experience.

[@blahzndef]

Mr. Ritholtz, your interviews are pure gold and a delight to learn from.

[@thanititthisukanant1444]

China debt is the last question in the Q&A; glad that I listened to the end.

[@sandeepvk]

thanks i went straight to the last question

[@pixelmasque]

great to hear Rays view of the China debt, so many nay sayers out there who dont have Rays depth of researched insight.

[@Omariau]

@@pixelmasque I know right, I have been investing in china as I have low confidence in US stocks considering their current valuations while many chinese stocks just went through a bear market. And it surely is reassuring to know that El Maestro is investing there as well and feel confident about the country's future.

[@riva2003]

Ray always makes sense

[@bizzybgful]

I SUGGEST REWIND AT LEAST 5 TIMES

[@kepstein8888]

Openness, transparency, honesty, and no politics. Hard to imagine such a company in today's world.

[@billpetersen298]

At the management level. A great way, to run a country. Instead of, what's best for the party, and how do we make the other look wrong/bad.

[@Ygnez]

Thank you mr Ritholtz for the interview! Great stuff :)

[@leealexander3507]

Bloomberg Market is an excellent channel. Well done. I like the ones with a historical perspective very much.

[@unitedstatesofpostamerica7559]

I find him so much more insightful than other “elites”. He’s willing to acknowledge problems like inequality and political fragmentation that others won’t confront. Wish we had leaders who could understand this. Buffet doesn’t seem to grasp the “paradigm” we are going into.

[@ukaszferenc5249]

Amazing guy and amazing advice for life he gives us. Interview was just great, hour well spent. :)

[@yusa9429]

Thank you for the books you recommended...

[@robertnapolitano9256]

thank you you bring so much value to my life...please take my yoga class in nye

[@djad3115]

Fantastic....thank you....very good interview....

[@thisisrr1]

Mr. Dalio should run for POTUS

[@georgikorovski9054]

More so people should listen to what he is saying.

[@user-yw1hc2fz8s]

Ray will MAGA, wich is not a good idea, just stick with dumpo. Dumpo as POTUS is more entertainment, the world is now laughing at the US which will not happen without dumpo.

[@ErickOberholtzer]

He is too sincere, he would never win. Nice thought, though.

[@senorhedvoycez6017]

I would say he be appointed Fed Chair

[@Caek_daddy]

I wish.

[@yrachmani]

love it! i love Ray Dalio what a pleasure

[@kennyli6177]

excellent host, asked correct questions at right moments!

[@aminakhmadi9193]

36:14 - agressivness in action, humility in learning!!!

[@MindDataAI]

Ray is an icon!

[@robertcalamusso4218]

Two men who think out of the box !!

[@user-ht7gw9ww1c]

진짜 천재다 그때당시에 알고리즘을 생각해 냈어

[@joeebanks646]

thanks for all the comments convincing me to sit through this! enjoyed it

[@user-ht7gw9ww1c]

He says " absorb everything from not knowing." the word he says is sincere instruction towards me to start my career in the financial industry.

[@BluEN1111]

where?

[@johnny3583]

44:52 Ray knows!

[@Banderson3277]

LOL Iove this comment, he does

[@legendaryecomleads7885]

Ray Dalio is amazing

[@nachannachle2706]

I am a 30-something millennial and I love this man's intellectual integrity

[@Nukacola633]

Ray Dalio low key, just described a metacognitive process. By inverting the process of how to make a judgement made to how to conceptualize a problem, he inverted the typical equation of judgment then problem, by choosing to reconceptualize the world, (hence the problem.) So rather than writing a plan of action he chose to meta his own thinking. So instead of writing a strategy he wrote a ‘What do I think?’ first and then a ‘What do I think about what I think and what can I make of this?’ Scrutinizing his understanding on paper to allow and better scrutinize his own judgment (written) in order to arrive at a more accurate depiction of reality (the world.) (hence other, opposing minds come in handy as antagonistic and scrutinized for his version of the world.) Here it is better to conceptualize/envision the understanding; really the problem and then the judgment as to how to act. This is required, for better action. This is most incredible because he accurately describes the process, he’s describing meta-cognitive thought and is a great communicator. The guy basically is not talking about the economy, he’s a low key great communicator. He’s visualizing a problem before attacking it. People don’t do this even if they think they do, it’s not the judgement made first, it’s writing the conditions of action. Or more specifically the question or what causes/provokes the necessitates action. This allows him to play to a more parallel world. He’s therefore much more congruent with reality. He’s a straight forward thinker. I think his thinking is as much a result of his scrupulousness as it is his way to meta his own judgement. He delineates the conditions for action in the world before how he’s going to act in it. There concisely, fucking finally. Thanks.

[@singularity-6339]

Nice capture. I also think it is an effect of being long time meditation practitioner. It taught you how to observe your mind and its behavior.

[@ErickOberholtzer]

How fucked up were you when you wrote this? Honest question.

[@fd6260]

you blew my mind, thank you

[@Nukacola633]

Hey guys, thanks for the honest questions. I don’t understand why ‘I’m high’ when writing but this stuff is hard to describe. I always think paradoxically it’s easy to define stuff and harder to describe it. Anyways, I’m practicing writing, so I’ll happily take the compliments and run with them.

[@livnedX7]

@@Nukacola633 Academia-level of writing, tons of "big words" but adequately explains Dalio's and your points. Keep it up bro, but try to keep it simpler. KZbin people isn't exactly inclined to improving their intellect.

[@wyh194]

ray Dalio can think and articulate so clearly that beats every single economics book out three . He deserves a Nobel prize!

[@ccerrato147]

Ray is fucking KING. The best thought process I´ve heard.

[@danschmeidler]

The best. First in class.

[@DeeComrade]

Oh, how relevant Ray's ideas are today

[@amershershara5448]

Great man

[@bernhardscholler6747]

So clever and still so humble. Ray Dalio is just an outstanding person.

[@roofatlas]

The last 5 minutes are prophetic

[@ProfessionalTycoons]

great person

[@marksteven3534]

Mr Dalio is quite simply god. He should rule supreme over us all. He truly is the essence of Dear Leader.

[@auniquehandle]

not so much Dear, if you read his book, he also told us that he's very good at insulting and belittling other people around him

[@drewnation9905]

except for the 82 thing

[@NotSoIrish]

1:45 BIG DANK

[@denisbergeron9783]

You Riches are the future for ours beloveds keep it ON

[@haipengli4769]

Simple yet not easy rules to follow

[@hedi_dreamland]

49:50 agree Life is not like that

[@edwardpages1659]

Where was this venue? Would really love to see Ray Dalio

[@MrJamesSantiago]

Damn... this is some real stuff right here.

[@Houthiandtheblowfish]

21:20 basically talking about the stage that we are in and going to right now

[@wyh194]

25:29 what is the book Ray recommended ? I didn’t catch it

[@denisbergeron9783]

I use to remember don’t want money but Love . Guessing what happened got heather but strength

[@seercapital]

this guy speaks the truth

[@pgaquigz1125]

Word of the day: analogous

[@florenciovela7570]

we love space x we traveled to Boca Chica to see the starship get built. & we got the S dual motor fsd last Christmas 🎄 😎 still have the cybertruck tri motor or 4 motor fsd on order, i got lots of solar & backup battery system to charge them both. i have tsla too. i just got tired of paying $5 for a gallon of gasoline

[@zinckranize]

That laugh when he mentions crypto. Has anyone heard him laugh like that before?

[@JonesDawg]

Timestamp?

[@johnny3583]

@@JonesDawg Look through the comments, already posted.

[@JonesDawg]

Found it@@johnny3583 , danke kamerad!

[@elarzalt]

44:49

[@sehz1789]

lollll

[@BD-xi1tv]

Watch "The China Hustle"

[@noreplyemail91]

I heard you, John Authers (FT)

[@kenle1895]

This guy is a Genius beyond Genius. Gotta practice is medication habits.

[@aminakhmadi9193]

33:46 - for young people!! Be humble, seek advice!!

[@WallaceRoseVincent]

What is more interesting, Ray or the audience?

[@denisbergeron9783]

Give the name of is best students

[@SydneySewerat]

39:15 "when it gets bad enough, they will always print". On the money, isn't he?! Or in our current situation, on the trillions.

[@_kanyeWest]

^ underrated comment

[@maritimezhang]

If the world keeps buying they they will keep printing. Problem arrives when they slow it down on the buy side but the printing side doesn’t. And we already see it, they are buying hard asset in real estate and factories.

[@bcaominh]

They are not really printing. The FED is buying back treasuries from commercial banks in exchange for money. This is also known as Reverse Repo or Debt Monetization. Conversely to common understanding- reverse repos take liquidity out of the market and therefore create a deflationary economic crisis e.g. it will be harder to get access to credit, followed by a housing bubble burst ten times worse than 2008. Look at China and the Evergrande situation now. The crisis will hit us by December.

[@REAAALLLL]

3 book recommendations by Ray Dalio at around 33:00 - The Lessons From History, Will Durant, Ariel Druant (amzn.to/2Buf4jC) - The Hero with a Thousand Faces, Joseph Campbell (amzn.to/2znmseO) - The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Paul Kennedy (amzn.to/2zp0rML)

[@WinArmyOfficial]

15:48!

[@hassanazan3772]

I'm so happy because l just received my payment successfully from. Mr.Charles thanks for keeping to your words I now believe you are legit at @Charles_forex09 at IG .

[@johnd4348]

We are destine to repeat the past, over and over again.

[@investireocaminho33]

Great

[@dimecanal]

audio is too low

[@noneofyourbusiness5433]

Turn your volume up.....

[@Thehopsalot]

Turn it up then

[@jfgreen1959]

I had it on max in my Kenworth, still struggled to hear it...Sultan is right. The other, shorter clip from the same interview is louder.

[@waynet3534]

Low AF

[@ixcinematography]

Sultan Trader There's a button for that.

[@pixelmasque]

"like crypto.." "haaa hahahaha" (are you kidding me). 44:55

[@asadm738]

Hahahahaha xD

[@glasssteagall3400]

Everyone loves Ray... and this guy literally ate your lunch on Wall St. "I love the way you took our pensions and I love the way you made my family homeless! OH THANk you Ray Dalio!"

[@denisbergeron9783]

Steady Dan

[@p_s2900]

The real question is this. If we could replay the history to 1937, what should US have done differently? The answer should be very useful for dealing with today's issues.

[@motivatesme6695]

And read: Generations or The fourth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss!! You could literally know what will happen until 2069 reading these books that will make you understand attitude and reactions in people or generations. A MUST!!

[@amoliterno945]

I really wanted to hear him respond to thoughts on crypto. I guess he doesn't have any.

[@johnny3583]

44:55 There's your response!

[@kamilo4989]

A few weeks or months ago there was a shorter bloomberg clip with him talking briefly about shadow banking at one point. I wondered if he wasnt referring to crypto there.

[@jasonk203]

I thought the laughter pretty much sums it up...

[@basilabuto1647]

"Play the markets and then you will realise how difficult it is to be confident."

[@rohitandley]

He gave us a hint 4 years ago and its happening. Dedollarization has begun, countries are trying to become more independent and since China, India, Africa and other developing nation have the potential for growth, we maybe witnessing a shift happen.

[@yaoyulee9794]

Ray Dalio has a computer program at work that evaluates and weights every member's opinions including his own. Instead of adopting his own, he follows what the program shows........

[@denisbergeron9783]

Tell me about Roger the hedge the Sword thé chap and the Horse

[@denisbergeron9783]

Are you Canadian

[@wyh194]

33:10 ray recommended books

[@typelogin]

Anyone else noticed how he dodged the cryptocurrency question?!?? makes me think his fund is either invested or looking to invest

[@hwm2047]

Don’t think so. He’s just skipping it cause he’s not convinced of crypto’s. That would be my interpretation.

[@mazharsoufi5270]

thank you sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much for sharing fucking love Dalio

[@denisbergeron9783]

About will you’re all Righteous

[@Banderson3277]

did he just completely doge the crypto question??? LOL

[@TMK1450]

Yeah. That can be understood both ways, depending on your bias to cryptos! I did get it the other way around ;-) 1600 different cryptos and counting?

[@forrestjones2010]

Joseph Campbell's Power of Myth is far superior than Hero with 1000 Faces. 1000 is very good; Myth is legendary. Read both...you...the reader of this message...yes you...order it now!

[@bankfinanzas6348]

ray dalio generation ancient

[@lucasborges9447]

46:27 - 50:25 < This is the secret for him, all the success comes from here.

[@carloschau9310]

China Debt is at 56:26

[@tttcp5546]

@Teringventje but it is inner debt,the government owes money to their people,it can be solved by printing money😌

[@JosephHofmannEducation]

If the Message is "diversification is key" then he is promoting MSCI world ETF?

[@TradingSuccessCoach]

@CollinMcDirt you may want to watch „holy grail of investing“ where he explains this concept (5min) kzbin.info/www/bejne/hKaXnXuXiM1qepY in essence: diversification with uncorrelated assets... a nice place to start thinking about portfolio construction.

[@workwillfreeyou]

It's like the 1930's except the USA has no manufacturing base and most of the adults in the USA are on antidepressants or antipsychotic drugs!

[@vincentanguoni8938]

No manufacturing base!!! Most of America on drugs....I think you are exaggerating just a wee bit!

[@cmares5858]

Billions is based on Steve Cohen not on Ray, bad fake news question

[@financialtradingacademy8766]

Trading course at: grinfer.com/instructor/simone-siesto?referral=true

[@SportsIncorporated]

You don't have a true market if the Central Banks buys 15 trillion in assets.

[@scottphillips8117]

You don't have price discovery but his argument is that the societal costs of banks going broke, causing other businesses to go broke, and rippling throughout the economy are worse. I was ardently opposed to QE but you can't argue it didn't work. I was wrong about that.

[@benkwardlaw]

Pride precedes a fall. Been there....... Done that!

[@Polyester_Avalanche]

34:24 Bravo. Successful capitalists like Ray Dalio are usually very generous and would gladly help the poor (like with microfinance) if the government didn't soak them for taxes. Cut the government (aka middleman) out of the equation, and you suddenly have a much more efficient (and voluntary) transfer of critical resources from the haves to the have nots.

[@denisbergeron9783]

What nobody’s told you what can one know

[@denisbergeron9783]

The Visuals investor

[@aminakhmadi9193]

21:40 !!! DEBT IS CREDIT. AND CREDIT IS BUYING POWER 11111!!!!

[@dadaimiza]

Amin Akhmadi 🧐