Reasons for Failure? Russian Air Force in Ukraine

The 'absence' of the Russian Air Force in the reerupted Ukraine conflict is strange. Let's talk about that, the potential reasons, and shed more lights on the strengths and limitations of the Russian Air Force.
- Guests -
Justin Bronk, Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute: rusi.org/people/bronk
Richard Shimooka, Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute: macdonaldlaurier.ca/cm-expert...
- Check out my books -
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German Panzer Company 1941 - www.hdv470-7.com/
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- Social Media -
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- Sources -
Dominic Nicholls, Why the complacent Russian air force has failed to gain control of Ukraine’s skies, 01.03.2022, available at: www.telegraph.co.uk/world-new... [last accessed 03/03/2022].
Justin Bronk, The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force, RUSI, 28.02.2022, available at: rusi.org/explore-our-research... [last accessed 03/03/2022].
Henry Foy and John Paul Rathbone, Air power counts for little in Ukraine war as caution prevails on both sides, 02.03.2022, available at: www.ft.com/content/faf80b4a-1... [last accessed 03/03/2022].
Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali, What happened to Russia's Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped, Reuters, 02.03.2022, available at: www.reuters.com/world/europe/... [last accessed 03/03/2022].
Oryx, Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, available at www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02... [last accessed 03/03/2022 at 1745 GMT].
- Timecodes -
00:00 - Developing situation (Intro)
01:59 - Russian opening strikes (Feb.24, '22)
03:15 - What the Russians are not doing
06:35 - Intermission (Have your say)
07:01 - Trying to make sense of this
07:28 - Pilot skill and experience?
09:34 - Lacking equipment?
10:12 - Lack of air-ground coordination?
11:37 - Lack of preparation?
12:16 - Russian defense industry?
15:41 - Keeping forces in reserve?
16:21 - Underestimating Ukraine?
16:41 - Increasing activity
17:42 - Possible future scenarios and assessment
22:58 - Outro
- Audio -
Music and Sfx from Epidemic Sound
#militaryaviationhistory #RussianAirForce

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

*Note* Messed up the iso setting on this one. Mea culpa - it happens :( - I'll get some sleep now, gn8 all! Big thank you to Richard and Justin for their input! Check the description for more info.

[@squillz8310]

Had a feeling you were overexposed. Still a very well made video! As an Aviation Enthusiast, I'm grateful for the coverage of the situation so far in the air. Take care, Chris!

[@jakobc.2558]

Dont call Ukraine "the Ukraine". "The Ukraine is considered to be a slur as it implys that Ukraine is a part of russia. Also I know you are not doing it on purpous. For a german speaker like myself it seems natural too as we need to use "die Ukraine" instead of "Ukraine" for the grammar to make sense, but please just avoid this mistake in the future.

[@theodoresmith5272]

Very well done. As we see again, communist made anything is shit and very over rated. The Russians built a new chopper to replace the older ones vulnerable to 1980s tech hand held anti aircraft missiles and the new ones are being shot down by that same 1980s tech.

[@roderickcampbell2105]

Glitches are glitches. The content is what matters. We all need sleep. Sometimes 2 hours, sometimes 12. Great post.

[@DarktroopX]

Yesterday I was reading excellent article about this topic written by military analyst Jaroslaw Wolski. One thing you didn't mention is that most likely (not confirmed, but explains a lot) Ukraine has access to information from state-of-the-art image, radar and electronic reconnaissance NATO systems, including JSTARS and AWACS planes flying within NATO borders all around Ukraine. That is enough to provide invaluable intelligence to Ukranians. Basically Ukranians have excellent information about where Russians are, where their AA systems are and even if they are deployed. This allows Ukranians to strike Russian units outside of AA defences and even strike AA systems when not deployed. 3 days ago, destruction of 2x Buk-M1-2(9A39M1 TEL), 2x Buk-M1-2(9A310M1 TELAR) and 1x Tor-M2 was confirmed with many more unconfirmed.

[@Seriona1]

One of the biggest difference is that when US and UK invaded Iraq. Both nations pounded the nation from the sea and air to gain air supremacy before sending any land forces in. These campaigns were specifically for taking out Iraqi air power and armored forces. Russia on the other hand decided to take a traditional approach and try to conduct an air power supremacy war while also invading. The issue with that is it allows the Ukrainians Air Force to be able to fight back while your armored forces are trying to move in. Russia had the same problem in Georgia, they managed to defeat the Georgian air force but was unable to have air supremacy because Georgian anti air defenses were not taking out.

[@rogerwilco2]

It is according to Russian doctrine, they care a lot less about air power and supremacy.

[@Seriona1]

@@rogerwilco2 And that's the issue. It almost looks like Russia never abandon human wave attacks. I know it's not that bad in Ukraine but the issue is that you never put yourself in a position to be on equal grounds to your enemy and I think the fact that Russia didn't learn from Georgia or even pay attention to how the NATO doctrine works means that they simply won't ever learn and make the same mistakes as before. I mean, even the Chinese seem to have a better doctrine, there approach is to pound the enemy with artillery like WWI before even moving in.

[@Seriona1]

@@Ghastly_Grinner I'm talking both about Iraq in 2003 and the Gulf War. The difference is that in the Gulf War, the Iraqi had an army that was on par with the west in terms of numbers so NATO forces were able to test their air campaign in terms of CAS attacks and we saw how we were destroying miles of Iraqi vehicles and tanks.

[@Paveway-chan]

Well, the situation for Russia in Ukraine isn't even close to the same as the Coalition against Iraq. During Desert storm, the coalition could merrily blast away at the Iraquis for however long they felt they needed, before strolling over the border. The Russians don't have the luxury of time; they wanted, and probably needed, to present the world with a "fait accompli" in Ukraine, in order to avoid ending up in the current situation with sanctions and a soaring Ukraine spirit of resistance. This doesn't have anything to do with human wave tactics or doctrine this or that, it's that they 1) expected minimal resistance and 2) had to finish the war in it's entirity, both air, sea and land, in something like 72h tops. Doesn't leave much time for an air campaign.

[@Seriona1]

@@Paveway-chan I would disagree. Russia has time on their hands. It's not like WWIII is being raged and NATO is going to beat Russia to Ukraine. Russia had all the time to properly conduct an air war and there is no reason not to. If Russia is willing to accept the global pariah then time becomes irrelevant, it's not like all this shit goes away the minute Ukraine accepts surrender. But as we are seeing, it's not Russian to rage an air war. This is why I laughed when the Pentagon said Russia would have air supremacy within a few days and take Ukraine over in weeks. They clearly did not pay attention to how bad the air war went for Georgia.

[@lynx6722]

I was in the military, mostly based in West Germany during the Cold War. I remember, when the Soviet Empire collapsed, we were surprised at how we over estimated the Soviet War machine during the Cold War, although we knew we had to play smart to render their large force less effective. I think the same thing is at play now, and over estimating how shear numbers (Russia) competes against competence and determination (Ukraine) .Currently I see Russia as big, lumbering and slow, while the Ukrainians seem small, but agile and smart and using technology to their advantage.

[@Joseph1Sco]

I think it is a simple economic calculation that comes into play in the 21st century Russia had to win instantly or the war would quickly become unsustainable. The cost of every part of the supply chain has doubled adjusted for inflation since the height of the cold war (if not ten times in certain areas). The fuel requirements for Russia alone are enormous with a T-72 tank lucky to get 1mpg and T-80 even worse, BMP ifv and BTR apcs around 5 mpg, the GAZ transporter carrying troops or fuel

[@piotrd.4850]

@@Joseph1Sco They have more fuel that they can use. Problem is they can't get is where they need it.

[@user-qe1mi5dv5u]

If Bro you served in Syria today, then you would have a different opinion ))

[@Rhaspun]

Yes. I remember when the news about how the CIA had underestimated how much the military was using up their GDP. It was unsustainable at the levels Russia was spending when they were trying to keep up with the US. It was a big part of why the Soviet empire broke apart.

[@Rhaspun]

@@user-qe1mi5dv5u He's going to have to base his comments with what is happening presently in Ukraine.

[@moors710]

As a designer who participated in design of several NATO aircraft, I always studied the performance of our Russian counterparts. I do appreciate the current availability of data that we really had to struggle to get in the 1980's and 90's .

[@karmpuscookie]

Utter crap. Studied the performance of? Why?

[@moors710]

@@karmpuscookie My specialty was helicopter design of leading edge helicopters I worked on design teams for the Apache the Comanche and the Osprey, as well as the retrofit of various weapons systems. The reason why any designer studies the competition is new ideas , strengths and weaknesses, trade offs the competitor has made and We studied all the Russian Helicopters we could find precisely what is not always available both due to how the systems were recovered. Our methods of obtaining these systems were not always known to me . But I did work with people on the recovery teams at AFIT and Foreign Technology Division. The Soviet era helicopters had good drive systems and were well built, however without western metallurgical techniques their

[@blazkapusin9810]

which aircraft...please tell me:)

[@moors710]

@@blazkapusin9810 I stated the American Aircraft I can talk about. I was not always aware of which soviet helicopter design I was looking at as the compartmentalization of how these items came into our possession restricted some of the specifics

[@user-qe1mi5dv5u]

No problem brother! We will agree at least on the fact that we can easily divide spheres of influence - we are on opposite sides of this Earth But it will be difficult for us in Russia to agree with China, these are two bears in a den, this will not last long. We are united by a common enemy, and as soon as he is gone .... well, you understand brother ... There are fewer and fewer resources on Earth

[@blueharland]

Finnally! Someone mentions the Russian economy! It is slightly smaller than Canada's, and basically the same - resource and commodity based. This explains almost everything we are seeing. Those who are stating that this invasion is going according to doctrine might be correct, but it is a poor doctrine. Without a quick resolution the economics come more into play, and that is a losing proposition for Russia. Even if they manage regime change in Ukraine, they will be paying for this adventure for decades.

[@Maria_Erias]

This is, again, a reason for the invasion: Russia is after the natural gas deposits in Ukraine. If they can secure the shale deposits under the border of Donbass as well as in the west of the country (near the Romanian/Moldovan borders), and the deposits off the Ukrainian coast in the Black Sea, that will give them even more gas for export and ensure that Ukraine can never independently develop the infrastructure to tap those deposits (a capability which Ukraine was starting to develop off the coast of the Crimean, which was the reason for the 2014 invasion). If Ukraine could ever independently develop the means to harvest that natural gas, they could quickly become the chief supplier to Europe, completely cutting out one of Russia's principle means of income. After all, what's losing twenty or thirty thousand conscripts and a few thousand decades-old military vehicles to Putin compared to losing the chief means of supporting his regime and his oligarch buddies?

[@blueharland]

Thank you! Now this all makes more sense.

[@apedumpling5218]

There is no such thing as a poor doctrine. Russia has used this for years because everyone in the world has different mindsets, you can’t assume that they’d follow anything different

[@dasbubba841]

@@Maria_Erias Ukraine's deposits are significant, but comparing them to the cost of invasion is like comparing an ant hill to a mountain. It makes no economical sense, considering Russia ALREADY has ample resources.

[@drinksnapple8997]

The Russian "economy" is the same as.....Spain's.

[@noobster4779]

The entire war so far reminds me of the famous german WW2 quote about Operation Barbarossa: "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." Seems Russia didnt learn from its own history of how a rotten structure might turn out to have an unbreakable door.

[@ThePTBRULES]

And that statement can be true, with the example being Afghanistan on its own, vs before the poor withdrawal...

[@noobster4779]

@@ThePTBRULES The Taliban never lost or where destroyed by Nato. It was a Nato failure for 20 years, not just a "botched retreat". Is this Trump propaganda?

[@malusignatius]

@@noobster4779 I think he was referring to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

[@meferswift]

@@noobster4779 well, evacuating your military before civilians is a bit questionable as civilians. But hey, wht a civilian like me knew.

[@allangibson2408]

The problem wasn’t the door - it was the fact the structure fell on top of them (and there was SO much of it).

[@alandavis5820]

I think a larger effect on the lack or coordination and AA activity is the evidence that most of the Russian troops so far captured or out of fuel is that they weren't even told what the operation actually is. It's hard for your troops to mount a successful campaign if they have no idea what the campaign actually is.

[@fluffly3606]

Or even that it IS a campaign

[@user-qe1mi5dv5u]

I applaud your propaganda, keep going in this direction))

[@alanwhiplington5504]

I spoke at length with a former East German aircraft engineer some time in the 1990s who told me that the components of Russian fighter aircraft then had none of the durability of western components. He surprised me by telling me that the lifetime of fighter jet engines could be counted in hours before they'd have to be removed and replaced. The conversation was a long time ago but that was the nub of it. Could it be that the Russians are reluctant to commit their best fighters because to do so would render them very quickly unusable and so unavailable in any clash with NATO forces?

[@herestobeingalibra9515]

Makes sense to me. One way or the next Russian AF has been reluctant to deploy thier best stuff. I think the air defense has proven alot more stiff than they planned as well.

[@konfuchie357]

They made countless hours in Syria with no problems.

[@herestobeingalibra9515]

@@konfuchie357 Well we're gonna have to agree Niki that they are facing problems now.

[@alanwhiplington5504]

Do you have any evidence to support your comment?

[@ElGrandoCaymano]

I don't think the Chinese or any other Russian satellites have observed this problem with 3rd generation planes. Heck, the Chinese still need to buy Russian jet engines as their copies are worse and Russian aircraft still flies in many NATO countries (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc) as well as the UAF. I understand the Russian transport helos to be very reliable and are used in the arctic by Canadian and Norwegian commercial companies for logging and oil derrick flights.

[@kevinrusch3627]

I really appreciate your professionalism and attention to detail and "look, I'm just guessing here" when called for. This is excellent stuff -- I'll be joining.

[@ronjones-6977]

Best explanation of what's probably going on that I've heard yet. THIS is what journalists used to do.

[@hisdadjames4876]

Also appreciate your focus on ‘objective’ military analysis, rather than adding your voice to the propagandist good v evil narrative that surrounds us.

[@hisdadjames4876]

Am I alone in suspecting that there is a great deal of propaganda and wishful thinking in the ‘inept Russia’ narrative that now surrounds us (in the West)? Even with huge and competent forces, is it not normal to take at least several weeks rather than several days to take over a country the size of Ukraine....60% bigger than Germany...that seeks to defend itself? Logistical frictions alone are notorious for slowing down attacks. 🤷‍♂️

[@ProCoatsCalgary]

Absolutely Agree

[@stevejette2329]

But recording at "1100, 03 March" means what time zone ? GMT, Ukrainian time ?

[@thedirty530]

It's fantastic to see my favorite channels give a far better account of what's transpiring than we get from any news network. I'm thankful for you guys!

[@ToddSauve]

News networks are manned (or womanned) by politically correct and woke global warming fanatics. They can't figure their way out of a wet paper bag, let alone explain what happens when the real rubber meets the road. They are largely pathetic and not worth the paper they are printed on.

[@jeffreymorris1752]

And by Global Warming Fanatics you mean anyone who believes 99.8% of scientists in the field. I'll cop to that.

[@ToddSauve]

@@jeffreymorris1752 That's good Jeffrey. You can have my share, too! 😉

[@thedirty530]

@@ToddSauve Uhh...Even if you want to use a metric that only means what any individual wants it to mean...it doesn't explain why its counterpart is just as unreliable and quite a bit more emotionally driven!

[@ToddSauve]

@@thedirty530 After a while you stop believing what the media tells you to believe. I'm old enough to remember back in the 1970s when all the scientists in the world were telling everyone that we were heading into a new ice age. They changed their tune since then. But you can believe whatever pleases you. I don't believe climate scientists as far as I can throw them. There are just way too many government grants being tossed around, that they survive on by the way, for me to put any trust in them. Or governments either. Do have a good day though! 👍

[@Koldatt]

Hey Military Aviation History Just wanted you to know that within the first minute you had me subscribing. Having detailed informative discussions with other educated people providing their input and disclosing the context of that information to boot. thats in low supply these days. We NEED more of all of that desperately. without having seen the rest of the video, i want you to know people appreciate those things. thanks

[@1Kseiya]

Thanks for the video. I'm from Ukraine, Kharkiv. I couldn't understand, why they are claiming on aiming only military targets, but in fact they are hitting civilian houses. Now I understand. They simply cannot be accurate with that tactics and weapon. And I want to add something: IT IS REALLY TERRIFYING BEING UNDER ALL OF THAT FLYING DOWN RIGHT TO YOU. I'm civilian, I live in the very center of the city. I should care three women: one is an old lady, another one is partially disabled person with some mental disfunction, and my wife. It would be really impossible to take them out in the emergency case. They cannot still understand the situation. And I will not leave them alone. Some minutes ago few jets flew somewhere near and smth exploaded. In the range of 1000 meters. All the building literally jumps. And I should mention it is a five store building for 30 smth appartments. Hopefullly we all could see the resolution of this conflict, ALIVE and HEALTHY.

[@brianoneil9662]

Russia seems to have forgotten Chechnya and the First Battle of Grozny, thinking the Crimea was going to translate into the overall experience in Ukraine. As a former Air Defense radar operator I am fairly surprised they haven't persisted in prosecuting air defense units. If you let mobile units survive the initial targeting they're going to take full advantage of that mobile aspect to hide well. And yes, air defense is much happier dealing with slow movers like helicopters.

[@redwatch1100]

Those Stingers we just sent them today are going to tear those choppers up.

[@kieranh2005]

Do the Russians have a wild weasel force?

[@simulatedpilot3441]

To be fair I don't think any information can be trusted at this point for me either side.

[@aker1993]

@@kieranh2005 maybe but you need a large stockpile of Guided munitions to do wild weasel missions clearly which the Russian dont have more.

[@janchovanec8624]

@@redwatch1100 Sadly not. Old Stingers are way too prone to lock on to a flare, rather than the chopper. Each of those choppers carries 90-250 flares. You gonna need dozens of missiles for a single kill.

[@PaVVroo]

Comments on Georgian war od 2008 make excellent reading, it seems Russians didnt learn anything. "Opposition-affiliated Russian analyst Konstantin Makienko observed the substandard conduct of the Russian Air Force: "It is totally unbelievable that the Russian Air Force was unable to establish air superiority almost to the end of the five-day war, despite the fact that the enemy had no fighter aviation". According to Russian expert Anton Lavrov, on 8 August, Russian and South Ossetian troops deployed in South Ossetia were unaware that Russian aviation was involved in the war. Russian troops and South Ossetians often assessed Russian aircraft as enemy and shot at them before precise identification took place."

[@MickeyMouse-bo6ug]

Russia seems generally incompetent at SEAD operations

[@theeltea]

@Random Guy Well said.

[@Rokiriko]

That's pathetic and embarrassing.

[@CountArtha]

Russia is a Third World country even by the original definition of the concept.

[@davidwood1641]

Many thanks for the update and analysis. I especially enjoyed the narratives by your invited guests. Overall it paints a far more illuminating picture than the limited TV news we receive. Its worth repeating that there are no winners in a conflict, well except perhaps for the armament barons of our world, and so war never benefits anyone really which is why I always encourage dialogue, even if I often feel diplomats make more noise than sense. Sadly, I suspect based in part upon the geopolitical implications of the various factions involved on each side of this conflict, and taking the legal and precautionary factors into consideration; that this is going to be a very protracted war. If so, it is the common people of our world, most especially those in the direct line of fire, who will bear the greatest blunt of this conflict. The world will still be feeling the effects of this conflict 70 years from now I suspect. God bless all those who wish for peace, and may God comfort those who have lost so much or everything. Thanks

[@jeweetzlfpappi]

Thanks for this high quality and well-informed analysis! Very insightful to view the current conflict from an aviation-focused perspective. Wasn’t familiar with your channel but I will subscribe. Hope to find more content like this 👌🏻

[@74charger44]

Chris, could it be possible to do a weekly update on the air situation in Ukraine? Maybe a update on NATO aircraft build up in Europe. This episode was very informative. Thanks.

[@th3awak3n1ng2]

Agreed

[@elektrotehnik94]

I'd be VERY interested in how NATO is shuffling its forces in response to this, explained in a way us normies can understand (numbers instead of battalions & such). Is there somewhere such info is even available, or is it under Operational Security by NATO?

[@44MagnumNA]

@@elektrotehnik94 there's no way that information isn't considered classified at a Secret level or higher. Troop deployments are usually kept under wraps for OPSEC reasons.

[@TheNobleFive]

@@44MagnumNA There's very broad and obvious facts though. Like exactly how much U.S. forces were announced to move to east Europe and to which nation was publicly announced. News articles show pictures U.S. airborne forces at a few small Polish airfields close to the Ukraine border unloading supplies. The articles name the locations and you can see Google maps imagery of the respective airfields in those towns (although you don't see troops since the imagery is a bit old). There's a video of several Apaches landing at one of them. This is all just official footage from public news media that points out where NATO is setting up shop as they take photos and interviews.

[@soso-zz9qf]

I don't think there's enough reliable info for this. It'll be grasping at very unreliable straws.

[@mrmorhouse]

We're seeing just how incredibly difficult it is to completely negate an airforce in a weekend, and we should all bow down to the original desert storm sorties of hundreds of planes. The ability of the US to completely decimate Iraqs abilities early on should be applauded by strategists. Whether or not you agree with the war. The strategy was wild.

[@JanHore]

Yes it must be extremely difficult, especially when they try to shield civilians. So don't compare anybody to the war criminals USA!!!

[@timandtheocean]

yes but your government too

[@glennmartin802]

It just takes a long time to coordinate multiple army's. Iraq was a "shock and awe" campaign. The Russian doctrine has always stressed patience in establishing supply lines.

[@kaneworsnop1007]

@@glennmartin802 except they haven't established a supply line and unfortunately Ukraine doesn't have the air power to destroy the 40 mile convoy traffic jam.

[@kaneworsnop1007]

@@JanHore I think that youve made a typo there and meant to put Russia as the war criminals.

[@briannicholas2757]

An excellent episode. Your channel, MHV, Drachinifel, Chieftan and a few other channels always provide us with detailed and factual information we can rely on. I was wondering if you could talk to us about the Ukranian air force and its aircraft, and especially the MIG 29s that Poland will be sending to Ukraine to bolster the Air Defense? There is lots of talk, but little detailed factual information and I think you could really help us understand this horror.

[@pacus123]

No, Poland is not sending any planes to Ukraine. If they did they will be turned to glass

[@davidnewman3223]

Excellent. Thank you so much for getting this out there. Much appreciated.

[@peterh5165]

I have to believe some of the less than spectacular showing of the Russian air force is doctrinal. I remember reading back in the late nineties that very few East German fighter pilots were kept after German re-unification. Basically, the article was saying that the former East German fighter pilots were so rigidly trained to follow exact instructions (orders) that they lacked the ability to continuously search for new opportunities to exploit. Chris: if you have not already covered this in one of your previous videos (former East German pilots) this might be a good topic for a video!

[@gerardlabelle9626]

Few East German army officers were retained, either. Apparently the Bundeswehr didn’t believe that the officers could “unlearn” their old military doctrines and learn the new Bundeswehr doctrines. The bit about the Russian pilots having 1/2 the monthly flight time of US pilots reminds me that in the 1970’s, Soviet pilots received much less flight time than NATO pilots. Back then, at least, # hours flown per month was considered to be a major factor in pilot proficiency, and thus combat effectiveness (probably still is). WW2 experience had shown that the proficiency gap could be murderous to the lesser side. So NATO suspected that the WP’s ~10,000 aircraft would be offset by their pilots’ lower proficiency. The Soviets liked to have air controllers vector the fighters to their targets, as we saw in North Vietnam. I don’t remember whether this was to compensate for their pilots’ lesser skills, or if the Soviets just preferred centralized control over suspicious individual initiative. But this meshes with those overly rigid East German pilots in the 1990s.

[@nirfz]

@@gerardlabelle9626 If the pilot esentially doens't know where he is, he can't defect easily. ;-) Maybe they were just lacking or mistrusting navigation equipment back then. With ground based navigation equipment it gets more difficult if you are over enemy territory and there is none. (or it is switched off) Yes inertial Nav was good enough for a long time, but who knows how or if it is implemented in their aircraft still. And in modern times GNSS can be spoofed and/or jammed easily and cheaply. For less than 30€ you can jam an area of a few nautical miles.

[@wanderschlosser1857]

The main reason most NVA pilots were dismissed was they were obsolete, it's as simple as that. Besides the MiG-29 and initially a few SU-22 no other fighter plane was taken over into the Luftwaffe hence their pilots were no longer needed. There was also no requirement to retrain the East German pilots en mass onto West German aircraft because there were enough West German pilots available. Furthermore after reunification the combined Bundeswehr/exNVA army was almost half a million strength, it was clear that cold war was about to end no such big German forces were needed anymore.

[@daszieher]

@@wanderschlosser1857 eastern pilots were trained to more rigidly rely on ground control. This attitude towards tackling challenges according to central supervision contrasts starkly with individual initiative coupled to combined execution promoted in mission tactic systems, where the executing entities are given goals instead of direct orders. This reliance on the cognitive abilities of well-trained personnel in the field form the foundation of the free world's success story and what sets both "worlds" apart.

[@herosstratos]

In this respect there are already fundamental differences in the leadership principles between the Luftwaffe in (West) Germany and e.g. the US or the UK. In (West) Germany the pilot has the ultimate responsibility.

[@charleslyster1681]

You are very generous to the Russians in saying they had limited time to plan and prepare. It’s pretty clear now that they have been planning this in principle for ten years or so and intensively since the force build-up started several months ago. Did no one mention the plan to the Air Force? The start date was of their own choosing, not The Ukraine’s.

[@barthoving2053]

But how much of that idea and thus resulting need for planning filtered down to lower echelons. The plan might be kept at the level of the inner circle around Putin. Maybe out of security, maybe because the top realized the average Russian did not believe in or wanted an invasion of the Ukraine. And of course the narrative is there is not an invasion, now if hundreds if not thousands of planners have been working on it for years it would be hard to keep up. And especially the lower echelon planners would be distracted with the making and execution of plans needed for Syria and Nagorno Karabakh. So even if the generals knew of the grand plan, it would not matter planning wise if they did not tell the colonels to plan or the colonels did not tell the logistical sergeants to make preparations . The plan might be worked on a strategic and geo political level for years but not on the tactical and practical level.

[@bengtjakobsson5177]

@@barthoving2053 Yes all what you are saying might be true but then its not a lack of time but a breakdown of the command chain pretty much would show that the higher officers are completely incompetent. This whole operation seems to be based on wishful thinking and unicorn farts.

[@laszlokaestner5766]

The Ukrainians obviously realised it was coming and took steps to modernize and prepare. The Russians who were always the likely aggressors appear to have been sitting on their hands the entire time.

[@ldkbudda4176]

@@bengtjakobsson5177 Yes, indeed! Yesterday Ukrainians shot down two pilots Russian plane. Both bailed out, but one pilot was dead on arriving on to the ground, another captured. The later was with big fat belly and seen on the photos together with Putin and Assad in Syria!!!

[@reklessbravo2129]

Putin chose the start date. It's pretty clear he pulled a Mussolini and didn't bother to inform people in a reasonable amount of time, and the actual people at the front didn't even know until it was already happening

[@simonjamesdean2307]

The Russian AF has been over-rated for decades. Yes, it has some impressive aircraft...BUT...the numbers are small and half of those are unserviceable due to lack of funds/parts. One positive about the Ukraine war is that it has put on display Russia's military hardware and tactics for all to see, and the upshot is that NATO would wipe the floor with Russia. Another positive is that Russia is losing essential military hardware with each passing day, and cannot afford to replace it thanks to the crippling sanctions. Putin has really messed this one up. His best option would be to retreat now and salvage what he can of his military...but obviously he wont.

[@watchgoose]

A couple years ago they were having problems with ejection seats NOT working......

[@cyrilarabatzis461]

90% of everything you said, is war propaganda bro.

[@opakular]

@@cyrilarabatzis461 It sounds like a reasonably good analysis to me.

[@cyrilarabatzis461]

@@opakular Because it's based on taking the war propaganda at face value. Countless videos have been disproven already. For example the convoy delays are a completely normal occurance since they are setting up their air cover as they go and establishing forward operating bases as well. Ex military chanells (American ones) like task and purpose have already explained that the media is talking nonsense (for optics obviously) as I've said by the end of it 90% is going to be debunked just like Ghost of Kiev(footage was from a video game) and Snake Island (they all surrendered and are alive).

[@claes77]

Sadly it’s would be an hard blow for Putin to withdraw the troops. He will probably take desperate moves to try to save face. But even if Ukraine gives up the sanctions from the world on Russia will remain and Russia will only have to choose bankruptcy or leave.

[@johnborden2267]

Thanks for the timestamps! I wish everyone would do that whenever talking about current events.

[@jeffzaun1841]

I was a Navy A6 bombardier. In the days before PGMs we viewed taking out runways as too hard. The Brits pulled it off in the Falklands, but as a rule dumb bombs won't do it. We'd plan against the fuel pits, hangars and aircraft, but we viewed the chances of taking out a runway for more than a few hours as not worth the risk. Airfields tend to have air defenses. . If airstrikes on Ukrainian airfields were not effective I would not be surprised.

[@fazole]

Did you guys have Durandal or similar runway destroying bombs then?

[@GARDENER42]

That's why JP233 was developed: Runway cratering submunitions & a shitload of antipersonnel mines & delayed action bomblets. Outlawed now under the land mine treaties.

[@drinksnapple8997]

@@fazole No. the USN never used "Durandal". Only the USAF's F111 were cleared for it, and it was not kept in the inventory for long.

[@drinksnapple8997]

@@GARDENER42 ...and that's why the JP233 was retired. The RAF's performance in the first 2 weeks of Desert Storm proved the fallacy of that weapon & its tactics.

[@GARDENER42]

@@drinksnapple8997 Wrong. It was only used for 6 days because after that, the Iraqi air force had run away & hidden. It was retired because it's use became illegal, not because it was ineffective. The ONLY Tornado lost on an airfield denial mission was due to controlled flight into terrain, NOT enemy action (we recovered the wreckage after the "hot" phase & there was NO damage attributable to AAA or missile).

[@paulwest8575]

During the '82 to '86 period, my USN VS-21 squadron was under a strict monthly fuel allotment (as were all the other squadrons) while on deployment with USS Enterprise. We still had to get all our pilots their traps on the carrier and flight hours to meet objectives. Logistics are absolutely paramount in a lean air force budget scenario. So, it makes me wonder if the Russian air force just isn't as organized or diligent with planning, exercises and training ($$) and therefore their "sharp end" capability ends up being far below what the technical platforms could possibly achieve. They do have good planes and equipment, but as a AT3 we grunts spent HOURS maintaining our 8 serviceable S-3A aircraft (lack of parts from Lockheed meant 2 birds were cannibalized for the rest) just to be "up and up", i.e., both flyable and mission capable. Coupled with the rumored "Oh, it will likely be over in 72 hours" belief and you have a recipe for aerial disaster.

[@vladG30]

the reason was obvious from the start. They were given strict orders not to strike in Ukrainian cities. So only soldiers with guns and APCs went into cities after the air force ran out targets out in the open. Then in last few days Ukraine has gotten about 20 Mig planes from Poland and elsewhere, 18 of which were shot down in 2 days. Now they're saying another 50 planes might come from Poland via a 3rd party. Russian Air Force just isn't given enough legitimate targets, because of civilian deaths concerns and that's really prolinging the conflict. whenever any Ukrainian military appears outside the cities, they're destroyed, so now they're sitting in the cities just like ISIS in Syria and hide behind civilians. A very sad situation.

[@mechano6505]

@@vladG30 I don't buy all of the Ukranian propaganda but this is clearly a Russian biased perspective. Firstly, they have been repeatedly striking cities since the start, so that's just not true. Secondly they haven't gotten any MiG from Poland and a deal still hasn't been sorted out on that, the Ukranians just had an air-force to start. Thirdly, there's shitloads of manpads and AA still left they're just dropping dumb bombs that hit indiscriminately. Fourth, they're not at all like ISIS they're attempting to get civillians out of the cities but the Russians clearly either don't care or are incompetently enforcing the ceasefires for humanitarian corridors so how the hell are you going to evacuate them?

[@vladG30]

@@mechano6505 except all the things you mentioned are the opposite of reality.

[@deanvaillancourt2881]

@Mechano · Vadic is a Russian 🥾🤪 troll. How much BS he can string together is laughably amateurish.🤣

[@mechano6505]

@@vladG30 Stop watching Russian TV,

[@EK-gr9gd]

Well, the problem is not "smart" or "dumb" weapons. Just one example "Tornados", "Jaguars" and "Mirages". used primarily "iron bombs". What made the differences, were sensors on the "delivery system" and better interconnection between air- and ground forces, beside better battlefield recon. Keep in mind, "Tornado" was designed specifically to deliver "cheap payloads" with high precision.

[@BosonCollider]

The TB2 is partly a distraction though, and the real threat to the Russian column is from loitering munitions (aka small kamikaze drones) like the Punisher (which Ukraine built domestically) operated by small concealed infantry units. Those are difficult to differentiate from TB2 attacks and much of their damage may be confused with TB2 attacks, but they are not really vulnerable to Russian air defence systems because they can be built for less than a single manpad. Imho, swarms of small drones are a much bigger deal than man portable mortars or tanks were. In big enough numbers they can take out vehicle fleets that are much more expensive than their own cost, and they are incredibly good at taking out enemy logistics. The only real counter to a drone swarm is to have your own swarm of specialized drones countering it.

[@mcdibbles6611]

Watching the drones blow up Russian air defense systems was unbelievable. That’s when I knew Russia might have a VERY painful time in Ukraine

[@user-qe1mi5dv5u]

The birth of a new one is always painful. You will understand this, and very soon, by the example of what is happening now and what is to come in the United States. We're just waiting. I think we'll wait another year and take Ukraine. In the meantime, we are waiting for Biden Trump to either be put in jail, or, according to the old American tradition, ... disposed of. The United States has a one-party system After the end of the war in Ukraine, there will be only one strong army in all of Europe. Guess what? )) We're just waiting.

[@cyclometre]

Richard Shimooka hit the nail on the head when he outlined 'Russian corruption' and the way it has undermined the development of defence thinking and the development of armaments, especially as it relates to air assets.

[@b.w.22]

@@ExpatZ266 - Well, “speculating” doesn’t mean wrong, just unconfirmed right? Moreover, speculating seems like all anyone can do when considering the future and it’s all just degrees of confidence, so from the Russian generals calling for victory in a week to your local weather man, we’re all just speculating. That said, if rain is called for tomorrow, best to grab an umbrella I’d think. As for this specific instance, I need not speculate after first-hand experience, at least in 2007-2008 spending half of that time in Russia and some in Ukraine, I’ve always had a great deal of dubiety about the perceived effectiveness of certain Russian forces and gear. That said, Russians do things their way and it’d be foolish to underestimate them - but they really can be let down in large and small ways by baffling penny-pinching corruption. I’ve seen concrete poured a week prior (on a military base, no less) start to fall apart from thieved cement to dusty satellite clean-rooms that just got their ISO 9001 or whatever certification. The people are stunningly strong and clever, but man their stuff can be pretty insane from a western perspective. Just my thoughts.

[@lukewhitehouse4103]

Corruption, most US defence contracts are won with backhanders.

[@b.w.22]

@@lukewhitehouse4103 - Well, maybe, though that was more common in the past when the perceived need for equipment was sometimes more important than ethical procurement. But even if a contract is won through an underhanded procurement, if something is not effective it will be found out eventually. People often cite the M-16 and it’s introduction in Vietnam as an example of mismanaged procurement, specifically it’s promise to not need maintenance. What is often overlooked is that the original AR-15 was procured not to replace the M-14 but the dated M-1 submachine gun developed for paratroops and issued to Air Force base guards and MP’s. Influential generals liked the looks of these “high tech weapons” and pushed to have M-16’s replace the venerable .30 cal M-14. The big issue came from Army Ordnance insisting that ammo for it use normal “ball” propellant instead of the nitrocellulose “gun cotton” propellant it was designed for. Gum cotton burns incredibly clean while ball propellant is reliable but much more dirty. So the early weapons tended to be fouled by the ammunition, creating many of the issues with that rifle. But even so, designs and protocols were refined and updated and today the AR-15 design is one of the most common and effective weapons in the world. So here’s possibly “corrupt” procurement that led to something hugely useful to the military.

[@user-wb2bu8br7g]

all the remnants of the Ukrainian army hid in settlements. And Russia is not the USA, AND UKRAINE IS NOT IRAQ.

[@Cailus3542]

One of the most startling things for me is the difference between Western and Russian strategies. The West tends to be much more deliberate: amass huge air forces, then spend however much time is required for establishing air supremacy. Once that's done, bomb hostile ground forces into submission if possible. After that, prepare overwhelming ground forces for a well-prepared and careful invasion, with logistical support ready for whatever might come. The Russians, by contrast, are taking their cues from Germany in 1940: blitzkrieg. Just launch some air strikes on critical targets, then immediately launch an all-out invasion and rely on raw speed. The issue is that the Ukrainians (apparently?) had weeks to prepare their defences for that exact scenario, and they stopped the Russian assaults cold. This is very different to the Germans in 1940, who outflanked the majority of Anglo-French defences and smashed their armies in battle. Now the Russian air forces are faced with a situation that they were unprepared for, unequipped for, and thus have suffered substantial casualties. It's a horrible situation for any air force to find themselves in.

[@Radmonkeyboy]

Good analysis. Additionally, consider the fact that the Russians seem to have thought that the Chernobyl pathway was an Ardennes equivalent. But it was a trap, instead.

[@zephsmith3499]

@@Radmonkeyboy Could you elaborate on that, or link to some analysis. I am much less well informed, but learning.

[@Radmonkeyboy]

@@zephsmith3499 The German army bypassed the French Maginot line by assaulting through a forest. The region south of Chernobyl looks like a straightforward passage to Kyiv. But if you look at the map, there are few towns and the roads curve around a lot. That's because it's a swamp. Even in peacetime, it's a two hour drive from Chernobyl to Kyiv. If you block a road in that swamp, you can't drive around easily - your vehicles will get stuck - as the Russian vehicles did.

[@yjfuykyil]

UKR air defences weren't decimated as badly as assumed. Also, something I hadn't even considered beforehand, is UKR forces capturing RUS air defence assets - frankly a large number of them based on images and video found in the last couple hrs. The RUS air losses are still stupidly bad no matter how you look at it, and make no sense to me. The amount of expensive, modern attack helos and modern fighters like SU-30 variants lost in the past few days are almost too good to believe. Also amazing is how UKR drones are still able to operate. What we need to give UKR now is every MIG and Sukhoi in Europe, with the best available weapons. Every RUS piece of equipment lost is one less way to attack Moldova, the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Georgia etc.

[@pacus123]

All the numbers for Russian losses cited is total propaganda.

[@gtmg22b2]

TJ The Joker???

[@michaelkulakov9716]

Russians tried to get some anti-drone radio systems on the ground 12 days into conflict. After losing countless trucks, tanks, and troops to Bayraktars. It's just beyond comprehension how poorly planned their invasion is

[@yjfuykyil]

@@michaelkulakov9716 Wow, how did I not think of this? I thought it was odd how easily the UKR drones were able to operate with seeminly complete impunity, and thought that the russians had just lost too much of their army's organic, mobile AA capability capable of taking out the drones, but didn't even consider they'd conduct a massive invasion of a sovereign nation and not bring all their anti-drone capable systems. I mean I fully expected that Ukraine wouldn't be able to operate anything more than some small ISR platforms when the opposing force happens to have no small anti-drone warfare gear available locally, like jamming, laser, radar/optic guided kinetic solution like an autocannon or HMG etc - but that's it. All in all the russian AA capability and tactical ability is a total shock to me. Imagine those massive convoys under attack by a modern combined arms military with PGMs, multi-role fighters, drones, modern MLRS artillery, cruise missiles, and SOF units all working to drop crap on them. It's a shockingly 1970s way to wage war by the russians, with some war crimes sprinkled on it. I think I've personally heavily overestimated both russia's general troops quality, and their technological advancement and ability to operate. Even their use of airpower is odd - very, very little PGM use after the first days but lots of dumb and cluster munitions dropped on population centers. It makes it feel like sort of genocidal, like what the nazis would do - literally. It's obvious at this point that the russians aren't just disregarding civilians, but specifically targeting them, such as shelling evacuation corridors once in use by civilians, and deliberately bombing hospitals. It's puzzling, because I think russia could've done 100x better if a smaller but better trained, lead and equipped force and precision was used to cripple Ukraine's main military capabilities and then do a methodical, modern combat arms drive towards strategic targets. Simultaneously they would've sapped the Ukrainians will to fight back, but now they've made them the nemesis of the entire people, and even those who would've just stood by and watched the russian troops drive by, are now wanting to enlist and fight what the Ukrainians justifiably view as invading murderers. If I could figure this out, how could the russians not??? Maybe I've fallen into their propaganda. Expensive gear seems to be poorly maintained, and units seem to lack some or much ox the technology we always see in the footage of theie training exercises, or can't use it effectively. We're seeing them operate with early cold-war era equipment at times, and even their more modern armor is being hastily modified, the crews being panicked by western and native Ukrainian ATGMs. The russian military seems to be very much like the bluntest instrument imaginable - a hammer that's really, really big, but also sort of falling apart every time they use it. The scary part is that they have nukes, and a dictator spiraling out of control. I can't wait to see the circus break out when the guy finally can't botox his way into youth anymore and kicks the bucket.

[@yjfuykyil]

@@pacus123 Does that include the 1000+ documented and verified vehicle losses, including Ukraine literally capturing almost 2x more russian tanks than losing their own in combat? Same goes for all armor, and the amount of kamaz trucks lost is starting to get comical. If this goes on, Ukrainian farmers are going to be one of the largest armored forces in eastern europe. Someone called it the russian army organizing the world's most expensive easter egg hunt in the woods of Ukraine.

[@michaelmerrell8540]

It was good to see corruption brought into the conversation. As we've seen in their space program, it seems like a lot of the resources allocated end up getting siphoned off into the pockets of people at the top of the org structure. With the military, that would manifest in the fielding of less upgraded equipment than reported, and/or lower quality versions of that equipment being delivered, as well as lower readiness if training hours are limited to lack of funding.

[@vivianvaldi7871]

Yep MM, see 30 billions missing from HUD programs in USA too. See over priced 10.000$ toilet seat paid by Pentagonettes (sweet girls working for Pentagon), and other funny ones.

[@crazyirish__2171]

@@vivianvaldi7871 however USA can kick the 💩 out of Russian military. That’s why Putin is threatening with Nukes.

[@crowleythedemoncat]

@@vivianvaldi7871 You damaged my spelling for years to come.. Pentagon....Are those the 1982 10.000$ toilet seats or in which of the following years...it's a snake pit. It needs to change.

[@vivianvaldi7871]

@@crazyirish__2171 Happy to see it makes u proud, when some one grabs public money out of your pocket ! And they don't even tell you what they do with it. I mean, we are maybe the wildest turkey of the show ! With love.

[@vivianvaldi7871]

@@crowleythedemoncat Thx, made a correction accordingly professor CTDC.

[@pdoylemi]

This reminds me of secret briefings I got about the Soviets in the 1980s. While most saw the Soviets as this massive, incredibly potent military machine, we were briefed on many severe flaws in their system, that in an actual war, would likely render them far less effective than many feared.

[@1ambrose100]

You sound like the Wehrmacht in June 1940 when things were going great against the Russians. How did that turn out?

[@Ewoodster]

@@1ambrose100 that was a war of attrition, when tanks and planes could be produced in days. This time is gone.

[@pdoylemi]

@@1ambrose100 That was a foolish response. But in great part, thanks to the USA, they survived the early months, and eventually came back. But no one suggested that Russia is incapable of completing this terrible mission - just that they have often been overrated. Even in WW II they needed aid and the west fighting with them, and won as much as anything by a complete disregard for how many casualties they took - not to mention a horrible winter and Hitler's failure to plan for that.

[@atarkus8]

That's not a surprise. The Pentagon purposely inflated the threat of the Soviet military to justify its own military spending and buildup. The worst was the CIA with its "logic" that if the capabilities they expected weren't being found it wasn't because they did not exist, but rather because the Soviets had come up with some super secret stealth technology that was undetectable.

[@atarkus8]

@@pdoylemi You repeat some tired old myths. For one thing the winter effected the red army even more than it effected the Germans. The Moscow counteroffensive stalled because the amount of deep snow severely hampered their progress.

[@professorginz2379]

Very educational. Much more detail and analysis than I have found through mainstream media. Thank you!

[@rickmartin8626]

Thank you for a very thoughtful analysis of a very sad situation.

[@MrGreenrandomness]

I think the answer could be that Russia is fighting a different war than they were expecting. Russian military doctrine in general has always assumed that their forces would be forced to operate without air superiority if it had to fight NATO. That's why the Russian army (and its combat brigades) relies more on ground based firepower such as rocket and self-propelled artillery. That's also why the Russians invest in and have so much IADS in the first place. Maybe the absence of the Russian Air Force in Ukraine could be down the fact that they simply weren't planned to play a major role in line with its doctrine with fighting NATO. EDIT: I just want to clarify, the issue here isn't with the Russian Air Force exactly (they do have their problems as stated in the video), but the issue here is with the doctrine of the entire Russian Armed Forces. Doctrine exists as a guide for how militaries should win wars, and Russia planned its doctrine in the expectation of fighting NATO. The trouble here is that once it's set in stone, it gets fairly difficult to reorient militaries to fighting a separate style of war. This is why the U.S military is spending years, not months, planning to fight China and why they had great difficulty fighting in Vietnam. They had to suddenly fight a completely different style of warfare than they were used to. Russia is facing the exact issues here. Fighting a separate style of warfare using the means meant for another.

[@FirstNameLastName-qx8ii]

That makes sense, but given the basic mistakes they seem to be making I think there may be more to the story

[@Kefuddle]

That jives with what I have heard about their operating doctrine. All the RAF guys I know all say they do not operate on initiative. They fly the plan with minimal deviation, do not deviate. I guess this mentality permeates through the rest of the service.

[@Christian-mt5jx]

Still doesn't make any sense. You plan your airforce around the enemy you are going to be fighting. They are the aggressors here so they had the time to plan this. Ukraine isn't NATO so if they have their doctrine still around fighting NATO in Ukraine it just shows how idiotic Russian high command is.

[@whyamisad5740]

There are certain indicators that Russia has planned this war for quite a long time, so for at least, given the invasion of the crimean island 2014, eight years. And to be fair, the comment you made appears to say that the Russian military did not expect a war with air superiority. But there'd be some flaws with this satement, if you mean it that way: first, it is an offensive operation, with Russia having the initiative because they started it. This is something completely different than a case in which Russia would be the defender. As the attacking force, air superiority is mostly desireable, I say that with a special glance at the Yom-Kippur-war of 1973, in which Egypt was the attacker but didn't rely on air-superiority. This concept of being practically immune to enemy planes has been a standard since ww2. So, the surprise element is likely to not be the actual reason for Russias struggle. And, tbh, I think the Russian general-staff is competent enough to be properly prepared for an offensive war. Plus, it doesn't really make sense to say they weren't expecting to have absolute air-superiority if they attacked the Ukrainian air force with such a mighty, well, force. There is no other way but the one that they knew all of this.

[@Farweasel]

@@whyamisad5740 Things are certainly - *fortunately* - going wrong for the Russians. (Long may that continue ! ) Its probably a mistake to assume 'Its because Russian commanders are inept' - Most NATO analysists rate Russian Army commanders as very competent. So, the question then becomes if the commanders are competent why's it running so far from smoothly. Part is a massive tribute to the tenacity of the Ukranian fighters. Part may well be ill trained, disillusioned conscript soldiers - It seems they were misled to expect the Ukranians would be pleased to see them, they expected to be seen as liberators ! The worrying thing is - This is *Putin's War* he's finished himself if this ends badly for Russia. So now his order will be to commence *Attrocities as Policy* - He has done it in Syria, Georgia & Chechenya. We've had our warning. Now we *need* to deveolp our own hypersonic defence and attack capabilities very, very urgently.

[@williammartin8151]

I think one of the greatest weaknesses of the Russian forces is the lack of individual initiative in their junior officers and enlisted. Not only is it not encouraged, if anyone is foolish enough to try it, then they are punished if they're not successful. It's much easier and safer to be a drone who waits to be told what to do. I bet there are a lot of drones in that convoy stuck in the mud north of Kiev.

[@metallisika2745]

And even if they weren't punished for the attempt, would they even want to? The Russian morale is at rock bottom, very few of their soldiers want to be there. If they get imprisoned or even shot for deserting, then they fight, but do the absolute bare minimum of what is expected in order to avoid being court martialed.

[@benjaminsnell3393]

Damn I never thought of that, manned planes may be proven ineffective after this war... What is the benefit of a plane over nowadays? Obviously this wouldn't happen overnight but there may be a lot less planes flying in future wars.

[@bangscutter]

@@metallisika2745 Makes sense now from the videos of Russian POWs. A common theme is that the conscripts were surprised that their captors treat them far better than their superiors.

[@anh4374]

@@bangscutter some videos show that while the captured russian's squad commander answering the questions, the remaining russian soldiers just eat like they've been starving, this is one big factor that lead to morale down in the invasion force.

[@Rhaspun]

@@anh4374 They may not get another meal for a while. I remember my friend who did his service with the US Army. He would eat quickly with big bites on his food. He said it was a habit he learned while in the Army. He told me you don't what might and you have to drop your food and go.

[@aaronunroe5267]

Great video, thank you for putting this together and providing this information. Much love and support.

[@Joseywales414]

My gosh it’s so extremely refreshing to hear something that isn’t complete lies and propaganda. Thank you for being not biased, just reporting the facts . That’s what news channels use to be.

[@ericcrabtree6245]

In my humble opinion, the reasons for this debacle are threefold….. 1) The forces did not seem prepared for an actual military engagement, if some of their soldiers are to be believed. 2) There was a gross miscalculation the invasion would elicit a similar reaction the annexation of Crimea did, 8 years ago - token resistance and protestations. 3) Russia will only commit land forces and tactics that are minimally necessary to capture key cities. They will not give NATO a front row seat to their full operational capacity. Putin is still expecting a confrontation.

[@brasstacks5319]

#3 Is pretty darn plausible and frightening. They aren't committing their expensive assets because they may need them against other more formidable forces (and air forces).

[@e2rqey]

Number 3 is the big one

[@jamesricker3997]

5) corruption, the Russian forces were not expecting a full-scale war so many took advantage of the situation for their own personal profit

[@dasbubba841]

@PGH Engineer And I suspect they also cannot afford to support such a massive force. Logistically and financially.

[@Hardbass2021]

Russia expected Ukraine to fall in a few days, an assumption that is now clearly false. With all of their crappy equipment now inside Ukraine, they might've pushed their newer equipment and more experienced men into Ukraine, but can it make a difference? Supplies...oh, what the hell are they doing with their own supplies?! They wanted to invade a country, but they underestimated them so they only brought "enough" supplies for that assumption? Truly, the corruption in Russia's military is now clear for all of the world to see, and Putin's still want to continue this war. This is a bloody war, that's for sure.

[@bandit6272]

When I was in the US army I was staggered by how disorganized and improvised so much was. The "fog of war" seeming thicker than concrete sometimes. So imagine how shocked I was to find out that nearly every other military on earth was even worse. Mind. Blown.

[@keithlealable]

Russia too?

[@Mkoivuka]

I remember watching videos of Russian airforce and planes about 5 years ago. Many made the comment that "Russian planes are sturdier, not requiring as highly cleaned and operated runways as their American counterparts." I'm starting to think this was disinformation. That Russia is too poor to maintain their runways, which leads to airplanes suffering damage and attrition, so they train less, and so the Russian planes seem to have less attrition, statistically speaking, per year than American counterparts.

[@ZaHandle]

Or the manufacturers had to make it sturdier just to survive the runway

[@alexanderyankovsky563]

Russians focus on the frame, engine and firepower in developing their aircraft, while their electronics are vastly inferior to their western counterparts. For this reason, their missions heavily rely on the ground control, from where some of the targets are "guided". That was the official version in the soviet air force (in mid-to late 80s) as of why the soviet aircraft performed so poorly in the Middle East (for instance). Modern Western military airplane is self-sufficient so to speak in performing its combat mission while Russians heavily depend on the assistance from the ground, at least when they deal with something more challenging than indiscriminately killing a civil population.

[@Bustermachine]

I'm not sure that's entirely correct. American planes definitely have better electronics and avionics than the Soviets ever did, but they still usually required ground based spotters for most of the strike aircraft. The old A-10, the AC-130, and the Apache are something of an exception on that front by providing true CAS. I do agree that the Russian airforce is flying with a distinct lack of support, however.

[@alexanderyankovsky7804]

Thank you for your comment. I am not an expert on modern day aviation, but I did serve as a "two year" officer in the elite military college of the soviet air force for fighter-bombers and it was part of the curriculum that the ground control was a key for the successful deployment of soviet warplanes. When cadets and officers flew their training missions, there was a very rigid control from the ground of what they were doing. For instance, on one occasion a plane and a pilot were lost because the pilot continued aerobatic maneuvering under more complex weather conditions than he was allowed to do, so he kept going because no one told him to stop. The plane was L-39 Albatross. I imagine that there is huge "institutional memory" of how the air force is developed and run, so I am petty sure there are similar traits in the modern day russian air force.

[@watcherzero5256]

I judge the reason primarily to be due to industrial capacity, on paper the Russian airforce has 2,800 aircraft however only 200 have been ordered during the next decade, its going to shrink drastically due to natural attrition even before combat losses and Russia is incapable of replacing significant losses to maintain a paper parity with the US, only accelerating the coming imbalance. If they field and lose their most modern aircraft the natural attrition problem is accelerated rather than reduced.

[@nicholasgrubb151]

.

[@chrispeffers5203]

Ah, and if Putin is really afraid of the West, he will want to protect and keep a strong airforce "in case of retaliation". In the conflicts of the past twenty-plus years, a nation could go "all-in". Not here.

[@bennuballbags2]

Yep and the allies of 'Ukraine are starting to flood anti aircraft/tank weapons into the country.

[@todo9633]

The less planes you're producing the less spare parts you're ordering. In times of war you cannibalize to keep the vital things running. I can easily buy that the Russians are running on a shoestring budget.

[@ericluffy7970]

I feel that Russia is keeping their most modern tech and highest value assets under thumb at this point so as still to have surprises and tools at peak readiness as the situation evolves and spreads. Most of all their EW assets are under wraps because of the out of surveillance and sensor assets monitoring the data in theater from across the globe. Last they want is to allow NATO, US and Europe to have a treasure trove of data to analyze and counter before they may encounter one another in real time. Noting most importantly over all this is that we are in day 8 or 9 of this Russian war path. I was reminded earlier that even with a massive coalition and most of the world on the US side; it still took almost 40 days for Baghdad to fall. Not to undermine the honor of the Ukrainian people for their resistance efforts and President Zalynski for fighting with his people and staying in his lands. I am praying for a Ukrainian miracle in weathering this dastardly act by Russia and that the Russian people at home will double down on their efforts in order to cap Mount Putin before he combust under his own ego and causes 10s or 100s of Thousands more deaths with his actions coupled by inaction. Go home and fix yourself to be a better friend and neighbor. God forgives. But every bullet fired can no longer be retrieved.

[@sichere]

The problem with the Russian Airforce is that it can only practice with itself, Western pilots get to mix it with other forces with various aircraft and scenarios.

[@uegvdczuVF]

Not true. They practice with China and India the later using some western planes.

[@sichere]

@@uegvdczuVF 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@lookronjon]

Not factual. They have China. Syrian. Indian air forces to play with but no nato nations. They don’t have a way to deal with an ever changing war. They are using 1980s tactics. to get in there as fast as they can and overwhelm them with numbers and the Ukrainians knew. They remembered that 1980s shit. The difference is Ukraine has practiced with other countries in NATO. Their tactics are newer and ever-changing.

[@zeitgeistx5239]

Trolls don’t know that the US owned Flankers for training.

[@keithlealable]

No experience?! After seven years in Syria??

[@MrAmoRay]

Very impressive insight on the current condition/strength in order of battle. I like how you clearly point out if you were unsure of your data and how the clarity of your points of facts are limited on when the recording was made. Keep it coming.

[@memphoonthemississippi2554]

Very informative and unbiased. Thanks to all who participated!

[@ree2453]

A lot of Russias military budget goes to yachts, luxury homes etc. It's no secret.

[@Jinseual]

I can come up several reasons why this happened and it all comes together. 1. Budget, as you said the Russians has less than half the flight time than Western pilots. Training costs a lot of money, and it seems like the Russian army has to cut some corners in order to pay for the upkeep of their large army. Allocating fuel to the units also takes a lot of cost and effort, not only does the army need the fuel to power their vehicles but it also cost fuel to deliver fuel so that's twice the amount of fuel being spent. Therefore, the amount of munitions and fuel should only equal to how much time the expected operation should last. Think the capital will be taken in just two days? Two days of fuel it is. 2. Expectations, the Russian media is always talking about how there are Nazis running about in Ukraine and that the government and military is filled with these unlikable and racist Nazis that normal Ukrainians hate. The Russians also believe that the 2014 Euromaidan protests were instigated by the CIA, and that regular Ukrainians are unsupportive of a "illegitimate government" that's controlled by United States. It seems like Putin also believes this which is why he is convinced resistance would be light. They did not expect the reality that most Ukrainians actually wanted to be closer to Europe and that the CIA influence seems to be largely exaggerated. 3. Alliance, since the Russians expected the Ukrainians would give up easily there is little reason to completely destroy the Ukrainian airforce. If the Russians took over Kiev than they could expect the Ukrainians to be their new ally. Therefore, those jets could be used to project power over NATO. No reason to completely destroy the army when that army could be on your side. Russia does not have the money to rebuild the Ukrainian military if they destroyed it so might as well utilize it. 4. Past Experience, when Putin came to power, the military operations of Russia had largely been successful. In 1999, the Russian attack on Chechnya had been successful, the Russians regain control of that region and were able to utilize Chechnyan fighters to fight for Russia's wars. In 2008 the Russian military had successful defeated the Georgians in surprise attack in less than two weeks. In 2016, the Russians had been bombing Syrian rebels and Islamist forces with impunity, causing massive damage and allowing the government forces to regain some territory. Since, Russia had at least three successful military operations under Putin, I'm sure that increased his confidence for the fourth operation. However, we ought to take notice that in Syria, Assad had to pay for Russian support. For some reason Russia was unable to give military aid for free to help a desperate ally which is why he withdraw from Syria before the rebels were completely defeated. That probably shows the symptoms of Russian budget constraints. There we go, the Russians attacked because they were expecting a short war. They had cut a lot of corners because of budget constraints so they tried to be as economically efficient as they possibly could with the available resources. The Russians were not the only people guilty of cutting corners, the American military also cut a lot of corners in their military operations as well. When the Americans invaded Iraq in 2003, they only invaded with less than 200,000 troops. If you include their allies and local Kurdish forces the full force is still less than 300,000 men. The Iraqi army had over 400,000 active troops, tens of thousands of militiamen and more soldiers in reserve. The Americans essentially took over a country with a much smaller army with much fewer casualties but they didn't bring enough troops to secure the borders of Iraq which would have prevented foreign fighters and weapons from coming into the country. After all, I don't think many American leaders expected Syria and Iran to be so adamant about keeping Iraq destabilized to keep American control away from the country. There we go, bigger nations cutting corners to save costs went to war hoping they saved money, only to find out that it protracted the war so they ended up spending more money on the long run.

[@collin6238]

@John hotz I hope you are right

[@rustyneedles3743]

Yeah, the CIA had nothing to do with Euromaidan, the us only spent 500billion for nothing, lol, you're super intelligent

[@irongeneral7861]

@John hotz Bold claims, but I'll keep watching.

[@marcelthevirginian1656]

That thought about preserving the Ukrainian military to be used as the military of a future pro-Russian regime is very interesting. I've never heard that suggested before, but it kinda makes sense. Especially since Russia isn't swimming in money.

[@rustyneedles3743]

@@marcelthevirginian1656 I'm guessing they don't want Ukraine to become a Burden on them, not to mention, don't wish to turn the country against them more than they already are, shit, they used to be historic and long time allies, till this Euromaidan bullshit come about and that was sponsored in the hundreds of billions by western countries, I don't believe a genuine grass roots uprising needs so much financing from abroad, it was orchestrated, and as for a future army, just look at the Chechens now, allies and a force to be reckoned with

[@KnightGeorge33]

Very Professional and well put together.

[@markbeyea4063]

An excellent discussion and analysis of something I have noticed since the invasion started, but which has not shown up in the major news networks' coverage despite all the retired generals they have rounded up to comment in their reports. I was taught, as a young US Army officer, in the 1980's how the Russian (then Soviet) forces conducted offensive operations. The invasion of Ukraine has not validated any of those lessons. In fact, the invasion looked, to me, so bumbling and uncoordinated that for the first 3 - 4 days I was almost convinced that it was all a staged hoax. Looks a lot more like the Russia I was trained to fight now, but I am still baffled by the limited use of air power. Please continue covering this conflict.

[@31Blaize]

Do you think it's possible that at least some of the Russian commanders' hearts are really not in this therefore they're almost sabotaging their own units and manouveres?

[@piotrd.4850]

I'd say that whole force was about to start packing home and nobody though that North will have any job to do. They were just put into ad-hoc mounted operation. Consider: Crimea is realtivel new affair, and Ukrainians shouldn't have let that breakout happen - yet it happened and Russia's battle order on South is demonstrably different. Probably due to fact, that that they had invested much in Crimean force which was still in process of setting up shop after 2014 and was at relatively high prepardness level.

[@LongNightsInOffice]

So my theory so far is that for most post Soviet equipment there are probably not enough resources to keep them running. Main reasons being corruption and over estimation of capabilities by the west/ propaganda. Flying a limited amount of preplanned sorties in Syria needs a different logistical backbone compared to a ground invasion. I mean even the fully mobilised Wehrmacht had the tendency to be on the brink of running out of supplies at the end of their (successful) campaign. I can imagine that the Russian armed forces can't provide the logistics for their modern equipment to Ukraine without becoming completely exposed elsewhere

[@seanmaguire9950]

I really get the feeling that there is a lack of money for the armed forces in Russia, it just seems crazy that they are using conscript units and there just seems to be a lack of training for their military. It really is a bit of a shock to see how poorly they are performing, you'd think they would be using their best units. I guess it also shows how motivated the Ukrainians are compared to the Russians and what a difference that can make.

[@Christian-mt5jx]

@@seanmaguire9950 War has almost always been about morale. Especially when talking about infantry units. Russian units have atrocious morale since they weren't prepared for war, they expected a swift victory and they thought the Ukranians wanted to be 'liberated' but with mobs of civilians shouting at them most of the Russians didn't have any courage left for the fight. Most regular people don't want to die. Only if the cause is just and the risks are balanced out. For the Ukranian soldier it makes sense to keep in the fight. They are fighting for the very survival of their nation and against unjust aggressors who claim they are 'Nazi's'. They are fighting for their homes, their children and family. Russian are fighting for a corrupt elderly man who is still in Moscow with imperial ideals whilst the average Russian still lives in poverty. Even if propaganda has worked on them the reality of war quickly shake that out of them.

[@MihaiRUdeRO]

What I'm more surprised about is the efficacy of Ukrainian information warfare. All the Kremlin bots in the world couldn't counter Ukraine's activity on social media

[@Ry_TSG]

@@MihaiRUdeRO yeah, seeing Ukraine even get Russia back in terms of cyber warfare was a bit of a surprise (they took down some Russian MOD sites)

[@davydovua]

@@Christian-mt5jx Updating you, that man is not even in Moscow, since he fears protests and (even more) fears assassination by his own oligarch caste who are losing money swiftly due to sanctions. He's in the reinforced bunker on Altay in the Ural mountains region, a mile underground.

[@tedferkin]

I find it unbelievable that the Russian troops have just come off exercises, yet still don't appear to have actually practised joint strike capabilities. I mean what did they actually do, drive to a range and fire off a few rounds. To think during my childhood I feared these armed forces rolling over western Europe. It appears the leadership is so incompetent it cannot organise a piss up in a brewery. The Little Boy in Russia must have been completely deluded or misinformed about his armed forces capabilities.

[@billwilson3609]

From what I've read, Russia has a small army of professionals and a large army of conscripts that get a few months of training before being sent home to be called up once a year for a field exercise.

[@stonem0013]

the Soviet era military was MUCH more formidable than this era

[@sichere]

@@stonem0013 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@hungusthefungus3461]

The Russians are also waiting for Trained Personnel from their Chinese Masters. It also must be remembered that Russian jets run on a mixture of High Performance Fuel and Vodka. Hence, it is Important to limit Air sorties as much as possible.

[@jimksa67]

What do you expect from brainwashed robot induced communism?

[@lameplanet]

Justin Bronk's analyses are always so insightful.

[@davidnash8586]

Very well presented and very interesting to hear how the professionals see things !

[@unrealfpvdroneproduction4357]

The first missile attack was issued by reconnaissance an hour before the launches, because of this, all aviation was saved and a lot of air defense survived, only what was not managed to be transported from the permanent place of deployment because there were not enough personnel, and also because of this lack of time were the first victims of the military who were at the epicenter of the missile strikes. Photos with destroyed radars are near Melitopol and it was destroyed from multiple launch rocket systems hail is an isolated case. Planes are not flooded because we have a bunch of s300 air defense systems in the form of 250 pieces and a bunch of other less distant systems, they are old but shoot down planes just as well) right now they are often redeployed and they often do not shoot down missiles only if they do not fly to the rear, so that the rear does not bombed and functioned normally. Because of this, all planes fly very low above the ground and rarely fly into our territory.

[@wakannnai1]

The air defense situation gets worse as well when you consider massive influx of force multiplier weapons provided to Ukraine in the form of lightweight stinger missiles just today. This essentially makes most of the bombing campaigns at this point incredibly risky which limits Russia to ballistic missiles from now on. Fighters are only really useful for escorting bombers and engaging other fighters. All ground forces are now at risk.

[@tellyboy17]

Give 'em hell!

[@jamesrowlands8971]

I saw many aircraft destroyed on the ground after the first strikes.

[@jamesrowlands8971]

@@wakannnai1 stinger missiles will take time to be distributed and are only useful for localised defence and guerilla operations. They're useless to the main target of the Russian offensive, the mobile group that was preparing to assault Donbas.

[@clientcomun1958]

@@jamesrowlands8971 uhhh you mean 60 km armour and truck convoy en route to *KYIV* , NOT Donbas right?

[@dwaneanderson8039]

My hunch is that Ukrainian AA missiles are still enough of a threat that the Russians are not willing to risk their very expensive aircraft unnecessarily. You can see in some of the video footage that the Russian helicopters are launching decoy flares. That means the pilots are feeling the pressure of AA missiles.

[@jduff59]

They certainly didn't risk their first-line troops and armor. FNG troops in Soviet-era armor that you'd expect to see in a third-world conflict.

[@VieneLea]

There are some reports of russian planes being shot down. With as little as they've already sent, they probably think twice before sending any more.

[@chefchaudard3580]

I agree. I think ukrainian forces have the help of the US and NATO, in the form of intelligence. They know everything about what flies in their sky through them. NATO has AWACS, drones, satellites around and they probably share that with Ukraine. Ukrainian AA defense radars are switched off and hidden until targets are clearly identified. I also think that all ukrainian assets were hidden before the war, when the US told them that a russian attack was expected.

[@jduff59]

@@chefchaudard3580 I hope it pays off. Putin is a bit out of control and wants to seal his name in history apparently. Going out with a bang - at the expense of his own people. Sad stuff.

[@jamesrowlands8971]

@@chefchaudard3580 Ukrainian command and control is not integrated in any meaningful way with NATO.

[@TheMrlandman]

Very interesting episode. Thanks for making this.

[@tractorpoodle]

Corruption is the core problem. The rest of the problems are consequences.

[@grizwoldphantasia5005]

It's long seemed as if the Russian forces simply don't have enough money, whether for research, purchases, maintenance, or training. The incident I remember best was the aircraft carrier near Syria which had to be towed away after breaking down down. I remember other embarrassing screwups which made the Russian military look clumsy and inept. Maybe this applies to the entire military, not just the navy. I know their economy is highly dependent on il exports, and oil's price has been pretty volatile the last few years. Another aspect is the severe top-down control typical of dictators. I have had jobs where thinking was for bosses only, and it's hard to get enthusiastic and work smarter or harder when you are constantly told to stop thinking. This ties in with the many Russian soldiers claiming they were lied to, it was only a training mission, etc. If you have to lie to your soldiers about going into combat, once those soldiers find out, they aren't going to put much effort into dying for what they now see as a corrupt and unknown cause.

[@DragonHuman00]

If they are looking clumsy and inept over and over then maybe they just are clumsy and inept lol

[@hiimmantowerlol5290]

No, if you spend 10 minutes in how Soviet go to war. Everything. Everything. Makes sense. This is just the beginning. The conjov? They just put out checkpoints. And waiting when the missiles nukes citys. The REAL conjov is just to come. Aswell with the heavy airforce. If you are in Ukraine, you should leave. You lost Day 1. Unfortunatly. You cant win this war. You see, everything is Soviet/Russian are in groups of ranks. The low ranks always go first as "meatshields" and to provoke and make Ukraine go all out to defend. Building hope when convoy setting up checkpoints for heavy tanks and such. You think Putin is stupid, he's not. This is all according to plan. He makes you think Ukraine will win. They wont. Im just real. I want Ukraine to win. Dont get me wrong. But please spend 10 minutes, there is videos on youtube. Russians always invade countries like this. This is even heavier, because they even bring the Navy-force.

[@DragonHuman00]

@@hiimmantowerlol5290 You are talking about a military that just had their $25m Tor-M2 anti air system BOMBED by a $1m drone. That requires an absolutely astonishing degree of incompetence. They are not as cunning as you think they are.

[@morzik12345]

The same was said about the Russian Army During Napoleon's war, which he lost. The same was said about the Red Army during Hitler's invasion, which he lost. Russia sure has a clumsy army but it keeps winning the major wars.

[@williamjackson5942]

@@morzik12345 Their problem is in Ukraine they are fighting their own doctrine. Ukraine already knows what they intend!

[@Spurkadurka]

I was thinking that in large part this may also be a reflection of the poor maintenance regime in the Air Force as we've seen in their ground forces. With the higher sortie rate in contested conditions, I don't think their Air Force can keep up with the wear and tear as well as the losses. The less glamorous ground crews are likely under equipped, overworked, and waiting on parts. This would be compounded by having so many variants of so many aircraft that span 30-40 years of technological change that there's probably no ready supply of the right replacements for each type of aircraft.

[@GARDENER42]

@PGH Engineer Not so. Neither Tornado nor Typhoon require a "complete strip down & service after every flight". That's complete nonsense (I'm a retired RAF propulsion engineer with 22 years service, so I do actually know what I'm talking about).

[@jamesricker3997]

There's also the problem with fuel Which is in short supply for economic reasons or the money for its purchase was stolen by members of the military or government

[@GARDENER42]

@PGH Engineer What media? Nowhere except RT claimed they were anything but Russian. ALL reports from UK sources identified them as Russian.

[@TLTeo]

Yeah I think this is the most likely explanation. If they struggle to keep trucks running, the maintenance status of their jets is likely pretty horrific.

[@paulhaynes8045]

Not to mention conscripts who don't know where they are, or why they're there, and don't want to be there. Add to that the fact that Russians and Ukrainian people, villages and towns all look pretty much identical, and the poor sods must wonder if they're fighting their own people (witch, ironically, is exacly what Putin says they are doing!).

[@markfromct2]

Thanks for putting the timestamps. Great journalism

[@TheArmourersBench]

Great video Chris.

[@mikkelboisen5543]

I was in Army Intelligence back in The Bad Old Days and we made plans and strategies for pretty much everything - even the really silly stuff - but we all knew that it was all mostly academic and basically just training. I'm pretty sure what's happening to Russia right now is that they dusted off an old manila folder labelled Ukraine and never thought to read any Helmuth von Moltke.

[@dragonsword7370]

That unfortunately sounds Way to plausible for it to be true considering who we're talking about.

[@mikeholloway2625]

Excellent... The book they read likely said, everthing is nail. Hit with hammer. Everything not nail hit with hammer. We only have hammer.

[@dasboototto]

The average Russian soldier probably doesn't want this fight and may be slowing things up on purpose.

[@bdon661]

Excellent analysis by all! This content is superb - many thanks.

[@johnheigis83]

Outstanding! Thank you. Semper Fidelis...!

[@brianhathaway8511]

Excellent presentation! I think you touched on many causative factors for the current situation in Ukraine. I see several factors: 1. Failure to establish air dominance prior to the movement of ground forces into Ukraine. I contrast this to the Allied Coalition in the first Gulf War, where there was a steady build up of air power in the gulf area over several weeks. The Allies used reconnaissance resources to identify and prioritize air targets and then applied air assets to these targets when the assault began. 2. Lack of evidence of a combined arms approach to the battle once the ground assault began. Gen. David Petraeus noted that in an interview a few days ago. 3. Lack of a training culture in the Russian Military in conducting large complicated air operations. The USA conducts annual Red Flag exercises annually that utilize a comprehensive approach to deploying air assets, including fighters, bombers, reconnaissance, tankers, air cargo including air drops, and AWACS, including allied air assets. Lessons learned during each Red Flag are rolled into training curricula. 4. Aircraft readiness. Apparently, VKS air assets are so constrained from use that their pilots get about 100 hours of flying training. That is not enough to maintain aircrew proficiency with complex weapons systems and aircraft. 5. Target selection. Because of some of the above factors, those assets that are flown are largely attacking large fixed targets along with artillery, unguided rockets and dumb bombs. In an effort to cow the Ukrainian population and military, this approach will most likely stiffen the Ukrainian people's resolve. Way back at the end of WWII, the Strategic Bombing Survey conducted by John Kenneth Galbraith came to the conclusion that Allied bombing of cities and civilians had the result of stiffening the resolve of German citizens. A lack of PGW weapons and targeting equipment is probably a contributing factor. 6. Russian Military Conscription. in 2007 - 2008, conscription into the Russian Military was reduced from 2 years to one year. Conscripts comprise 80% of the military. It is not possible to maintain a skilled fighting force with enlistments this short, especially when it comes to sophisticated weapons systems. According to what I have seen in some videos, Russian captured soldiers are demoralized and believe they are there to be "cannon fodder". 7. President Putin and the Russian Military and Government structure and behavioral norms. Body language I have seen in videos of Putin indicate that he is living in an information vacuum, with underlings unwilling to say that "The Emperor Has No Clothes". He is operating in a bubble which stifles creative thinking, problem solving and honesty among subordinates.

[@rhyswong8976]

Good analysis

[@gregoryjones5763]

Could the lack of integrated operations within the Russian military be the result of a fear within the Putin oligarchy that a more integrated functional military could be a threat to the leadership?

[@Wassenhoven420]

Super interesting thought, that would mean they are doing much worse than people realize regarding stability.

[@HarrisonCSmith]

I feel like this has been an issue in the past. Especially during operation barbarossa.

[@Max_Da_G]

Point-blank NO to that.

[@Max_Da_G]

@@doodlebug1820 He killed a bunch of generals specifically for sabotaging Soviet Red Army.

[@gregoryjones5763]

@@Max_Da_G how do you explain the lack of coordinated operations?

[@mykepredko4087]

Nicely done. Informative and interesting. Thank you

[@unclemikey2004]

Thank you for this video...I haven't heard or seen you before but I'll start following...

[@CartoonHero1986]

Something I am surprised Richard missed in part of his point is not only is the economy in Russia too small to support their military spending, their population has been on a steady downward trend due to their economy. The size of Putin's Military Aged citizens has been shrinking and will continue to shrink, so his stock of citizens he can draft in the event of a full scale war is a logistical weakness for Putin in all of this as well.

[@PaletoB]

Interesting thought, also I guess old cold war tanks, ifv's and conscripts are cheaper than aircraft and trained crews 🤔

[@andyf4292]

TBH,,, I'm surprised anyone still used conscripts

[@abrahamdozer6273]

The general health of the Russian population is quite a bit lower than their Western counterparts, too. The Russians have shorter life spans in general (by a decade) and Russia has done an abysmal job of controlling Covid 19 at the present. The Russian information machine says "powerful" but reality says "weakness". That may be one of the driving factors o this war ... a general malaise in the Russian population. It's only going to get worse, now.

[@abrahamdozer6273]

@@andyf4292 Conscript armies are generally useless. If you don't even tell them what their mission is, the conscripts are a liability.

[@stsk1061]

@@abrahamdozer6273 Covid is an advantage if anything, because it reduced the number of older people receiving pensions from the state.

[@bluerex0521]

This has been a great look into the Russian air force situation. I am having a hard time grasping the fact that his is the most accurately documented war in history and not only can you get near realtime updates from people on the ground in social media, you can also get an expert breakdown from multiple sources. All these disparate pieces are painting a picture that you just couldn't get in the past. Thank you for the update and I appreciate the depth of the analysis considering the time frames involved.

[@ericluffy7970]

Agreed very much so. It is almost incomprehensible at this point how much information we are being fed on this Russian aggression. Let alone the COVID BS bubbles we were all forced into and held hostage for over the last 2 years. Now all the sudden masks can come off, breathe fresh air again but simultaneously reminded everywhere we look that Nuclear War is around the corner so its time to get back to work and support nationalism again. Almost funny isn't it....how convenient this all is. France gets rationale for pushing an EU Army, The US gets to focus on China if they attack Taiwan, and Russia gets more shoreline in the Black Sea and can still sell oil and LNG to everyone in the world. So please focus on that side of the intel as well while you keep dogging on the situation. Because I am sickened by the boasting of sanctions and chasing Russian Oligarchs Airplanes and Yachts knowing that Russias energy sector is still in full swing.

[@kettelbe]

It s gonna be the 1st near full well documented war in history, fascinatingly awful in a way.

[@kettelbe]

@@ericluffy7970 ok dude, hostages lol, free as flies now? Forgetting sth maybe? Vaccines maybe? 🤦

[@ericluffy7970]

@@kettelbe yeah, I suppose I forgot. Side effects maybe.

[@spiritualastronomy]

I agree with you on the information overload, but what do we really know? Almost nothing. That's right, the propaganda, lies, deception, and psychological warfare are off the chart because of this abundance of "information." If you cannot see the sickening propaganda from the world media, then I might suggest you look again. Therefore, as we learn in Philosophy 101 what is knowledge; and how can we ever know the truth? And that leads into Logic 101. This is what we call Critical Thinking. The analysis in this video was so bad, I could only skip around and feel a bit discouraged to see how ignorant and/or biased my fellow countrymen appear to be. Everyone thinks they are armchair Generals and I'm sure we have some armchair Admirals too! May I offer a few key concepts to ponder? I'll keep it to 3. 1. Russia does not want nor need to use their First String Military Units, and you have not seen ANY of Russia's Go To War Equipment. You are watching their 3rd String Units, old equipment, young soldiers, similar to US National Guard Units. Good, but not the same as Full Time Active Duty Combat Troops. He's not showing NATO his new toys yet. 2. Modern war requires Air Superiority, or at least contested skies. Otherwise helicopters and ground attack jets can dominate a battlefield, and Javelin [anti-tank] Missiles become difficult to fire effectively. Modern Russian Armor can absorb hits, Russia has a significant history with Tank Warfare, just ask the Germans. Russia has 100% Air Superiority, with old equipment. Like left over gear from the 1980's Afghanistan war. Russia has stealth fighters...you just haven't seen one ...yet. 3. The Russian history in this region, with all players involved is extensive, going back more than 1000 years. The United States we can say started around 1620 with the Pilgrims landing at Plymouth Rock. The entire area of the Black Sea, all of Europe, the Ottoman Empire, Arabia, Scandinavia, North Africa....it's been CONSTANT WAR for 1000 years! In fact, after watching a well made video on Russian history, I realize we are just watching a re-run of a show that copied an earlier show, and it all seems eerily similar. EXCEPT...this time, the technology is beyond imaginable, the world leaders boldly share their Utopian Nightmare Dreams of a One World Government (Vaxed of course) and with this technology comes the light, that illuminates the dark places. They are flipping everything upside down, and if you can't see that, you are probably upside down. Peace-

[@zeckj83]

This is the first truly livestreamed war. It is the first time i fully understand the horrors of war. It is horrific in every sense. Hell on Earth.

[@Peter-ud9bx]

Very interesting. Well put together, informative and objective.

[@gundwanrushinga1373]

The old East German Strelas must still be deployed (unless they are a danger to the operators) in the Ukraine because they are an effective missile. We, in Rhodesia, lost a number of aircraft to this system and it curtailed our air operations. This was when used by forces (Zipra, Zanla, Frelimo) who were not very sophisticated and reasonably undisciplined (compared to the modern combat soldier). The flares used by Russian air assets as counter measures may be effective against the Strela but there has to be a limit to the amount of flares available to those aircraft therefore the time over target has to be limited IF Strelas, even old ones, are available to the Ukrainians. Better old equipment than no equipment. Even the old Lee Enfield .303 would be useful as a sniping rifle in the Ukraine. We have to think outside the box now.

[@JG-mp5nb]

I am surprised that anti-tank mines and even IEDs are not getting as much use as they have a great leveling potential. Perhaps they are being used and are confining Russia’s armor to paved surfaces. Hard to know with out more detailed coverage. A salute to the Ukrainians for showing considerable mettle!

[@jerzykaltenberg298]

Germany is supposed to be sending former DDR stock strela to Ukraine. Polish Piorun and Grom are defo a better missile, but there is not enough of them

[@larslarsman]

@@JG-mp5nb Salute and prayers for the Ukrainians.

[@billwilson3665]

They brought down a mig with a shoulder fired missile yesterday. Makes me wonder how good these Russian fighter pilots really are. In fact I'm wondering about the competence of the Russian military in general.

[@termitreter6545]

@@billwilson3665 Migs were always the cheaper plane compared to the SU's, and you probably have to go quite low to drop unguided ammunitions. The competence of the russian military is a bit shocking though. In a positive way, I guess; at least the biggest warmonger in Europe is pretty inept. In the 2010s NATO was worried that Russia could overrun big swathes of eastern europe before NATO reacts. Now they struggle to go from the belarussian border to Kiev...

[@UkraineStar77]

You also have to remember that most of their operational air assets and experienced crews are still largely deployed in Syria. They just moved various TU-22M's, 160's and Su-34's to there. We also dont know the dispatch rates of said air assets.

[@Seriona1]

Russia is large enough that they can split their division and fight multi wars. The issue about the pilots in Syria is that Russia and Syria was unchallenged in the air so whatever experience the pilots have is conducting CAS or air strikes which doesn't necessarily help in Ukraine as Russia is raging a war against a nation that actually has an air force.

[@pietroferrari4279]

Nice profile pic

[@Lawofimprobability]

@@Seriona1 If Russian forces had proper funding, that might be true. With a military stuck in transition for years and notorious for disciplinary problems and insufficient training, they have to prioritize where their competent people are going to go.

[@Seriona1]

@@Lawofimprobability I don't buy into that bullshit that Russia is un-funded, using out dated equipment and maybe lack of training sure. But lack of funds I don't buy. Russia since the fall of USSR every day sends two bombers, two fighters, and a fuel tanker from eastern Russia to fly outside Alaska and British Columbia and then turn around. Every. Damn. Day. I mean the Russians are sending their Terminators into Ukraine as we speak. They have funding. What I think is going on is that Russia is operating off shit logistics with terrible intel and they are sending in conscripts into battle without the proper reasoning which is leading to the disaster they are in. Russia may be using outdated shit but so is Ukraine and in terms of naval and air assist, Russia is way more modern than Ukraine. I believe it's coming down to poor logistics, bad intel, and a green army.

[@shiroamakusa8075]

@@Seriona1 Russia's per capita GDP is lower than Romania's. And then there's also widespread grift and corruption skimming off the top. Their armed forces are absolutely underfunded.

[@LAR-hs2qt]

Bless your heart (and all cthers) for the contribution.

[@takedakiwi]

Very interesting, thanks for the expert analysis

[@davidbeattie4294]

Great commentary. I really appreciate that you aren't pretending to have a conclusive picture of whats happening. We are dealing with incomplete and often inaccurate information and the fog of war. Thanks for trying to put it in perspective. I still hope the Ukrainians kick Russian ass!!

[@ademsmith25]

When a beautiful dreaaaam became a nightmare 😂😂😂😂😂

[@guydreamr]

The Ukraine has *already* been kicking ass.

[@startingbark0356]

NATO betrayed russia by expanding its territory closer to russia….

[@buffuniballer]

@@startingbark0356 NATO betrayed Ukraine by not saying yes or no back in 2008. The "sometime in the future" answer was just enough uncertainty to create today's situation.

[@wiryantirta]

It maybe just me, or we’re just used to the kind of systematic high-budget air warfare western forces do, but everything about this Russian invasion seems… sloppy. Either that or they never expected / never trained in situations where the opposition could mount an effective resistance with similar equipment even in smaller numbers. I’m somewhat in line with what you present today. Also, what do you expect when you fly Ka52s low and slow near tree lines / buildings? Or willy nilly drive vehicle convoys down highways? 😂

[@timthorson52]

I wonder if Putin has started to believe his own propoganda and assumed Ukraine would just surrender to Russia's sheer force of numbers? I also wonder how much is true about soldiers sabotaging their own efforts

[@TenOrbital]

Putin lied to Ukraine and the West, his generals lied to him about the readiness of Russian forces. Putinstan is an empire of lies!

[@Riceball01]

If you go over to Task and Purpose, he (and others) are suggesting that what we're seeing on the ground aren't Russia's top forces, these are their conscripts,. their cannon fodder if you will. They're going in first, taking the hits, softening up the Ukrainians, making them use up their supplies and amo, once that' done, they'll send in their regulars, the more elite units to mop up.

[@jakobrinsdorf7791]

@@Riceball01 isn't that counterproductive? If you send in the regulars and special forces first they have the firepower and experience to disperse or overrun their enemy and the conscripts get the mopup tasks

[@stephenjenkins7971]

​@@Riceball01 No country, no matter how insane or evil, would literally throw conscripts for a military victory or to "soften up" the opposition. Not only would that bring immense prestige to the enemy, it completely shatters moral for your own armed forces. Just because the Soviets were stupid in WW2, initially, doesn't mean that that's literal military doctrine. That's ineptitude.

[@teenybopper777]

Lack of communication combined with a lack of planning has hamstrung their air operations massively. The timeframe I've seen re planning is around 5 weeks planning total, with a final signoff 12th February, so under 2 weeks once plans were finalised.

[@myparadiseonbantayanisland9030]

Great info!!! - not too much info available from other sources😊

[@RonLWilson]

A couple of thoughts: Modern jet fighters are quite complex with high tech avionics and so require a large numbers of spares (e.g. 30% or so) to keep the force readiness high. But if one has limited dollars (plus corruption) Russia may have skimped in buying those spares. Also there are two sortie rates that Air Forces employ, surge sortie rates and sustained sorties rates where the later may be half or a even a third the former. But there is also the time one can maintain a surge sortie rate before it seriously degrades the sustained sortie rate, and even more is if one lacks spares. So it is not just combat losses or damage that limits sortie rates but simply flying a mission can reduce ones sortie rate due to equipment failures [edit] and having to cannibalize working aircraft for spares thus rending them as hanger queens... but if you don't try to choose to fly them you can hide that too from Putin that they couldn't fly even anyway if you wanted them to. On top of that Russian equipment may have low MTBF (mean time between failures) and this too (due to corruption) may be hidden from Putin in that why admit that if one cannot do anything to fix that, better just hide that. But the Russian Air Force generals would certainly know that and may be fearful of reducing their surge sortie rates given say NATO decides to employ a no fly zone and such and they too must be terrified of having to face off against western aircraft, proticual;ry 5th gen fighters such as F-22s and F-35s, [edit] and not just in losing their entire Air Force if they try to prevent that but in losing their heads once Putin sees that is indeed the case, the later being more than likely the much greater fear). Hence the urgent imperative to keep as much as their Air Force flight ready as one can. So these are logistics factor that even careful planning could not mitigate all that much but would be systemic.

[@chrissim4386]

@@Plyushch22 dollars is only used to refer to money here. And while their might be corruption in the US, the US Air Force is really capable of conducting very long und powerful campaigns and showed that a couple of times in the last few years.

[@machetedonttweet1343]

You must have been, or are, an Air Force Officer. I was an Army Security Agency enlisted man. I understand what you are saying. That's why they put me in ASA, I scored high on my entrance exam. I'll sleep better tonight.

[@gocanada9749]

GOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... F-35:s !! Nobody has technology like that

[@frankieshankly703]

My guess is that Putin uses his worst/oldest units just as a "cannon feed" to get the Ukranians to use up their air defense assets

[@machetedonttweet1343]

@@Plyushch22 Ummm, no he's not wrong. As a veteran of the US military, who worked in intelligence and law enforcement is there corruption? Sure,( that's why I had a job) but most of it is smuggling, black marketing, weapons trafficking, etc. But we put them away forever when we catch them. Back in the day, when the pentagon spent $1200 on a hammer or $500 on toilet seats, the money went to classified operations that oversite committees would leak to the press with. Now SOG is funded and Classified at the highest level they even have their own operations base now. Go to the press, go to prison, (ask Snowden, when he was active duty in a combat zone he most likely would have been on a "kill before capture," list). Field grade officers that cut sweetheart deals for after retirement deals are hard to prosecute. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that most of the Eastern European Olegards who are having their yachts impounded got their seed money from the US government by selling unaccounted for nuclear weapons, and fisel materials to Nato agents, instead of terrorists. That was Valerie Plame's job, to secure those items, by purchasing them before Dick Chaney outed her. So suck it up and go sign up "Pavel", Something tells me Putin is gonna need a lot of bodies.

[@misterbeach8826]

Thank you for the video and interviews. I'd like to remind us of the Russian military reform of 2008, and the NATO reaction to it 10 years ago. At that time, experts at IISS and NATO, analysed not only that the Russian air force is weak, simply due to budget reasons (say, compared to the West, or even just the EU), but that the Russian military is unable to move and coordinate large troop formations. The military reforms of 2008 reduced the number of officers by -50-60 % for good reasons. So, those experts stated that the current Russian military does not pose a threat to the West, except for the nuclear weapon systems, obviously. The reason being is that the West and the US are not only better funded but simply have, well, more combat experience.

[@robertferguson851]

Early in major wars it is common for combatants to manifest the effects of inexperience, incompetence and ineptitude. That could be what is happening here with the Russians. The upshot of this is that the fact that they are performing poorly now does not mean that they will continue to do so. Fighting a war, like any other difficult activity involves a learning curve.

[@realdjoffski7201]

Thank you from Poland for this insightful input. Loving your work! Amazing.

[@KrzysztofCygan]

Also I'd assume they have these too: The tactical defense alert radar (TDAR) is not a component of the Stinger weapon system but is an associated piece of equipment used to detect targets. The tactical defense alert radar is a lightweight, early warning detection device designed to be a rugged, transportable radar system that provides LAAD units with an organic cueing, alerting, and early warning capability. The tactical defense alert radar provides low altitude air defense units with a 20 kilometer detection capability against fixed-wing aircraft and an 8 to 10 kilometer detection capability against rotarywing aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles.

[@jenswulff732]

Good initial analysis. I think especially in the phase after the initial barrage there was also some restrain, as they are not able to keep collateral damage down. With more resistance than expected they will tolerate more collateral damage. The targeting weakness lack of planning agility and the low level of training on average also show. One small point: When you talked about the Su-25 and Su-34 at around 7:49 you showed a MiG-27 and not a Frogfoot.

[@dasbubba841]

It could also be that they simply ran out of precision weapons. Russia's military lacks significant numbers of modern weaponry due to budgetary constraints. The sanctions haven't helped either.

[@markthorrowgood3266]

@@dasbubba841 Did you see the Twitter thread allegedly from Ukranian Intelligence speaking about Russia's limited missile stocks in the initial invasion? It's a plausible idea.

[@bennuballbags2]

@@dasbubba841 Yep, massive army with out of date weapons

[@ollep9142]

I agree. Russia using more airpower doesn't go well with their official narrative of "peacekeeping" and "rescue". That should be a contributing factor to their restricted use.

[@melvynobrien6193]

MORE NONSENSE.

[@erideimos1207]

Thank you very much for what you do. As usual, pure luck that I found you but I'm subbed now. :)

[@parrot849]

Your yellow “loading bar” 6:51 while promoting the channel is hilarious! Bravo!

[@Rocketsong]

I think we are really seeing four things: 1 - The West has always vastly overestimated Russian/Soviet maintenance and readiness levels. 2 - Ukraine managed to scatter their existing S-300 assets. So while some were taken out in the initial strike, more survived than the Russians are comfortable with. 3 - Russia does not have a comprehensive SEAD doctrine. 4 - Air Forces are a nice to have, rather than a requirement. And Russia has always been willing to take significant ground losses to meet an objective.

[@Snoodlehootberry]

Absolutely awesome that you timestamp this, so much that goes onto KZbin and the Internet is not properly timestamp and so there is no way to verify when it was recorded. Not only a good video with information but well thought out and properly timestamp. 10 out of 10

[@iustintarachiu9326]

I think that one contributing factor to the perceived low performance of the Russian Military (RuAF included) up to now is the fact that quite often people are promoted based on political reasons and not on competence, and this issue precedes even the USSR. The best example is "General of the Army" Sergey Shoigu who has never ever served in the military but has one of the highest possible military ranks. He is a civil engineer by trade but somehow appeared almost out of nowhere and has been named the Minister for Emergency Situations and about 10 years later has become the Defense Minister with an outrageous rank. I am aware that many countries around the world have Defense Ministers that have no military experience whatsoever (like Ursula von der Leyen), but in this case they just manage the political aspects of the military, they don't plan or take strategic decisions in actual military operations. In such cases in normal countries they leave the planning to actual high ranking military officers who gradually climbed the chain of command during their career and have a full understanding of what the military can do and what it needs. How the *&#$ can you name someone as General of the Army and let him parade in the uniform like that, when he never had the rank of lieutenant or captain?

[@NotRexButCaesar]

You know the video is good when all the top comments have more than four lines of full text.

[@LTVoyager]

An old saying says something like “Complex questions have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers.” So, it is hard to say what all the issues are here, but it seems to me that the fundamental problem is that Putin made the error of believing his own propaganda. It appears that he thought that either the mere presence of the Russian military at the Ukraine border would terrorize them into submission (this would explain the captured soldiers comments that they were on a training mission) or that taking Ukraine would be as easy as driving the tanks to the big cities, having the government of Ukraine flee to other countries and then Putin could install his own puppet government. It does not appear that either he or his military planned for any other options and have been caught completely off-guard by the breadth and ferocity of the Ukrainian resistance and the nearly unanimous world response with sanctions and condemnation. It is possible that we are seeing structural issues in the Russian military, but I would not jump to that conclusion or we might be making exactly the same mistake that Putin is making now: underestimating your adversary. I would not underestimate what Russia can do and still might do.

[@melvynobrien6193]

A LOT OF NONSENSICAL COMMENTS HERE.

[@LTVoyager]

@@melvynobrien6193 Especially from people who can’t operate a caps lock key.

[@MrAnimal1971]

I totally agree. Its not wise to underestemate the Russian military. I wonder if the military is unified in their view that the invasion of Ukraine is justified or if some refuse to carry out Putin's orders.

[@kushicushi875]

They can only defeat a modern peer to peer military if he goes to tactical nukes. He knows west is lacking in the department currently. And the West won't escalate to ICMB

[@LTVoyager]

@@kushicushi875 Don’t underestimate what the West will do if no other options are available.

[@SergeantAradir]

Oh and btw: I disagree that the TB2-UAV is indeed performing only because of bad russian AA usage. Remember the war in Armenia? Well, they had all the newest russian and a lot of older soviet AA-stuff, even systems sold on the market as upgraded against UAV. And it did not meant shit. The UAVs bombed them to pieces. To me the lack of any sort of PR about shot down UAVs points more to the fact that the russians managed to get quite a few of the very few ukrainian UAVs on the ground and less to their AA being able to shoot them down.

[@N17C1]

If you hit a UAV with a missile, I doubt there would be enough debris to positively identify it. They are usually composite structures that would flutter down across a wide area.

[@dylanmilne6683]

It's small with a 100hp piston engine and a fibreglass shell - of course missiles developed to hit big fighter jets with big radar returns and heat signals will find it difficult.

[@crash1985]

We didn't see any footage of TB2 in the last 24h, so I doubt Russian AA in know overwhelming and they maybe learnt their lesson from that war and the last days.

[@adamsmith2944]

Where is the proof tb2s have had more than 3 hits? That's all ive seen confirmed.

[@exploringtheplanetsn]

@@adamsmith2944 there are lots of claims of on social media, as well as photos and flir footage.

[@edcarter405]

Refreshing to see and hear some knowledgeable people who are providing real world analysis. Kudos

[@MisteriosGloriosos922]

*Amazing!!!*