Can we trust the 2024 election polls? | Reason Roundtable | October, 21, 2024

[@ReasonTV]

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[@michaelmeehan9083]

Trying to predict the electoral behavior of around 150-160 million people with a sample size of 2500 or less is an exercise in futility in my estimation.

[@georgedixon9863]

it's called math, the internal polls are accurate - that's the reason she's panicking. The public polls are paid for / published by media. They have an agenda - it's called driving clicks/views

[@michaelmeehan9083]

@@georgedixon9863 I stand by what I said.

[@michaelmeehan9083]

The fusion of liberty and virtue is also very much an 18th century ideal that animated the founders.

[@gravitaslost]

My understanding is that the betting markets have only been wrong once in the last ten presidential elections, and that one time was 2016, unsurprising when the media was in denial that Trump could win and many voters wouldn't admit that were going to vote for him.

[@michaelmeehan9083]

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future." Yogi Berra.

[@michaelmeehan9083]

The extreme divisons and constant back and forth in the regulatory framework and tax structure has incredible costs to the economy because of businesses having to hedge against the uncertainty.

[@Justin_Beaver564]

Yup

[@fsrsaa]

They are never off to the favor of the Republican presidential nominee. Let’s be honest here. They had Biden beating Trump by 10 he won by 4 they had Hillary beating trump by 6 she lost electoral. Polls slant left in recent presidential elections.

[@quintenm4316]

In 2012 polls were off in favor of Mitt Romney. The national polling average was almost tied to Obama +0.7 with realclearpolling and actual result was Obama +3.9

[@thejedioutcast804]

@@quintenm4316 Anyone with a brain new Romney didn't have a chance against Obama, no one did. If he could run again today he would easily win, especially in today's socio-political climate. Thank goodness he can't run again though, you just have to pray Michelle Obama doesn't run because no one would have a chance against her either.

[@acd2050]

She sounds like she is giving a cope answer…. The betting markets have been correct every election for a long time.. it comes down to 7 states…

[@I922sParkCir]

I think election betting has hit a point where normals have started following. What happens when people dump huge amounts of money into a candidate’s outcome, specifically so that normals see the betting markets and come to the conclusion that one candidate is ahead? A few million dollars buys a lot of impact.

[@KriegerKrieg]

33:14 It's utterly baffling that a senior editor at Reason magazine can simultaneously think that a Trump presidency would result in more libertarian supreme court justices, but reject him as the better choice because of how those who oppose him would act irrationally to more freedom. Am I misunderstanding her position?

[@I922sParkCir]

Look at Trumps record. Solid judges, but terrible policy positions and spending habits. There’s totally a chance Trump gets zero Supreme Court Justice nominations if he is elected. Not a great reason to support him.

[@IAmInterested-cc4hr]

The "them" isnt college educated its the college educated then did nothing productive or lived off our taxes or student loan debt. Aka professors, lifelong gov workers, ngo workers. The engineers and people who actually have to make things have no trouble voting Trump

[@gregoriopassport]

I'm an engineer.. I approve this message.. Trump 2024

[@Watcher4187]

@@gregoriopassport Also an engineer. Only people at my company not voting for Trump are the insufferable HR type people who don't do shit all day except sit in meetings and make everyone's life worse.

[@j5her727]

I am so tired of the category of "college educated". Discipline of the degree matters. I will concede that universities have required more uniform thought over the years - just lucky I was out long ago and kids survived with their minds intact.

[@shaun7142]

People who make things, like the members of the "International Union of Operating Engineers"? You know, a union made up mostly of almost 400,000 construction workers, and has fully backed Harris. Or are those people not "real" workers? It would be hilarious if it wasn't so disturbing how hard partisans try to make the "other side" out to be as terrible and monolithic as possible.

[@jhor729]

Lol....those people grow engineers and regulate steel quality and break up monopolies to give the rest of us a chance to bring our better product to market. Lmfao. Use logical conaistency

[@owensmith5411]

Check pollsters record. Some have shown they can poll presidential elections that include Trump. Most have shown they either can't or won't.

[@spectator-o8h]

Is there a Nick Gillespie action figure yet?

[@ReasonTV]

Not yet....but we are definitely keeping this idea in mind!

[@acd2050]

Congress does not do its job, such that everything ends up in the courts at the whim of some judge, (at least for some time).. congress needs to do its job and pass laws.. I wish that would be part of court decisions where they say “if you don’t like this decision then tell you congress person to do there job and pass a clean law

[@ericirwin4385]

The only "scary" thing about an originalist Supreme Court is that the laws concerning social issues will have to be Legislated (debated and voted on) in the house and the senate ...With the understanding that it is extremely difficult to ammend the Constitution and that some issues will be sent back to the individual states to be decided on. I believe that this was by design by the nations architects.

[@ChristopherDonnerArtist]

Im very curious how accurate the polls will be. Sample size of 2 is a great reminder. I have faith in Trump but who knows.

[@brianwarnock]

A long time since I’ve heard so much inane nonsense

[@99guspuppet8]

❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ SLADE especially

[@STACKYCHAN-u1f]

I WAS NOT AWARE THAT AMY FARAFALLER WAS A POLITICAL ANALYST! YOU GO GIRL💋

[@JeffHoldenWS-NC]

Blah blah blah. Worthless commentary. Leaving now

[@JonathanRossRogers]

No birthday cocktail from the Sude?

[@jlpowell51]

I don't put a lot of weight in the spread of an individual poll, but taken in aggregate over a period of time I think they're effective in showing trends. The current trend appears to be Trump on the rise and Harris in decline. Early voting numbers in some of the battleground states also lead me to believe that the Trump campaign is doing a better job at bringing out the vote.

[@epiphaniesjuxtapozed]

Oh the plank length between libertarianism and anarcho-ouroborific-capitalism

[@DarkHorseSki]

The folks pushing fears of Trump are being stupid. We have Trump's first term in office and you need look only at how he governed before the Democrats demanded we panic about COVID to see how much better he is than the other option.

[@michaelmeehan9083]

Yes, Michael Cohen claiming that Trump will abolish the legislature and the courts is an absurdity, but some folks will believe it.

[@Justin_Beaver564]

Every little thing these days is rooted in blind partisanship

[@shaun7142]

Yes, we have a first term of chaos and poor governance, capped off by his poor handling of the COVID pandemic, which his supporters demand we put on Dems, thus making Trump out to be a weak and ineffectual leader who failed in the face of a party that didn't control the most powerful office in the land. That's the best case scenario with Trump. That he's so poor at governance that he fails to do the overwhelming majority of what he is talking about. And when that is the best case scenario, that's a problem.

[@BrapBang]

@@shaun7142 Please remind me in what ways the democrats handled COVID better than Trump? The chaos of Trumps first term? Are you referring to mean tweets, appointed officials getting fired and the press making up WILD stories such as Russia gate? Hardly compares to a dementia riddled president, several bank failures, a soft economy, COVID over reach and mismanagement, rebels in Yemen targeting international shipping, Israel fighting on 2 fronts in the middle east and an active war in Europe. My problem with Trump isn't that he was ineffectual. He worked with congress to spend waaaay too much money! Trump sucks and Biden/Harris suck more.

[@shaun7142]

​@@BrapBang It doesn't matter if Trump handled COVID better than Dems. Slightly better than terrible is still terrible. I think it's amazing how people think being "better than your opponent" is somehow an endorsement. > The chaos of Trumps first term? Are you referring to.... Instigating a riot because he lost an election, assassinating a military leader, obstructing investigations into his corruption (including pardoning aids who lied for him, firing Justice department officials who were investigating him, etc.), profiting off the Presidency by having government officials and foreign leaders stay at his resorts, multiple violations of a host of laws including the Presidential Records Act (which obviously continued after his presidency), and to end this section (though this is nowhere close to exhaustive) his cabinet was a host of nepotism, criminals, sycophants, and apparently a host of people who despise Trump (which just shows his wonderful management style, right?). > Hardly compares to a dementia riddled president Have you seen how Trump is acting recently? > several bank failures Not an argument you want to make. According to the FDIC there were 21 bank failures from 2016 to 2020. There were 7 in the past 4 years. To be clear, I don't consider this to be meaningful, but you made the argument. > a soft economy By what metric? Because by many metrics Trump started with a "good economy" and ended with a "weak economy". And by many of those same metrics, Biden started with a "weak economy" and ended with a "good economy". > COVID over reach and mismanagement Sounds like Trump. > rebels in Yemen targeting international shipping, Israel fighting on 2 fronts in the middle east and an active war in Europe. Some of which is thanks, in part, to Trump. Trump decided to support Israel expanding settlements and antagonised Iran, including by blowing up one of their military leaders. Etc. So yeah, Trump's presidency was chaotic.

[@RussellFlowers]

Not a sample size of 2, necessarily... A sample size of poll after poll after poll in 2016 and 2020, specifically involving Donald Trump. But her point still stands.

[@epiphaniesjuxtapozed]

It’s globalism vs localism? Where’s the top and where’s the abyss?

[@spimoin]

2:23 in until real podcast?? at least do some timestamps ro let us plebs know,

[@epiphaniesjuxtapozed]

The tectonic slide.. why isn’t there a “post punk track” addressing such? Is pop an inept format? Is there a greater affinity between the high and the low?

[@rhwinner]

The real question is can we trust the 2024 _election._

[@Seekthetruth3000]

If Trump wins, will the Democratic Party, its corrupt Orwellian news media, and Antifa accept the result?

[@shaun7142]

The answer is yes. There is no evidence to claim otherwise, and the only time anyone is going to complain about the results is if their person doesn't win. Trump claimed that voter fraud was a huge problem in 2016, and yet he did nothing in the 4 years after that. Obviously, it's only a problem for him if he loses.

[@jujjuj7676]

Why is this such a nonsense channel...if your called reason try to USE it 😂

[@thecincinnatiryans]

Much rather see direct checks. Accountability and populism cross checks moral hazards.

[@ChengHao03]

We’ve talked a lot about how the 2024 election might impact the markets. Has anyone made significant gains or losses in previous election years? .

[@BaozhaiDongmei]

Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased... Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.

[@Magdalena-u7l]

Oh, for sure. In 2016, I took a hit with tech stocks-lost about $70k in just a few weeks because I wasn’t prepared for the regulations that followed the election. But I did make around $85k by shifting into defense stocks, which surged after the election. It was a rollercoaster, but I didn’t have the right strategy going in. things got better when i employed the services of a CFA.

[@JunlaiAiguo3c]

Yeah, I've noticed a big dip in my portfolio too. It's been a rollercoaster ride these past few months. Please who is the advisor that guides you.

[@Magdalena-u7l]

Nicole Anastasia Plumlee can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like.,.

[@Jm-Gonz]

Trump takes 5 of the 7 swing states by slim margin, senate will be 52/48 R and house will be R by 3 -5 so some progress will be made in immigration and the economy, also Ukraine will eventually be negotiated as a draw, and the Middle East will have a tentative peace with very low grade exchanges Those are my predictions for the next 2 years

[@epiphaniesjuxtapozed]

How does legalese define deference?

[@JonathanRossRogers]

56:14 I'm sure Slade is aware that Hayek didn't like the term "libertarian."

[@spectator-o8h]

Ugh. They Them...

[@epiphaniesjuxtapozed]

The hecklers veto oof

[@quintenm4316]

Wow. I thought libertarians watched anime. None of you mentioned any anime your watching. Very disappointing

[@99guspuppet8]

❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ GOD created S Slade and shish kabob ……. there is no free wheel what a stinking mess is politics there will never be a shortage of leeches ……. let’s all go to Sugar rock Candy Mountain

[@holdruss6197]

How can you guys say Trump doesn't have a vision for the country? Do you not ever listen to him?

[@shaun7142]

You mean the guy who whines incessantly about China and promotes his religious doctrine but then mass produces branded Bibles for his campaign in China? I'm sure Trump does have something approaching a "vision" for the country, but it is so warped as to be unrecognizable.

[@alexcannon9364]

No they are libertarians they only listen to the sound of their own farts.

[@shaun7142]

@@alexcannon9364 Says the Trump supporter who uncritically accepts every utterance of their dear leader.

[@joelanderson5285]

If those utterances include a plan he wins, nice Bulverism.

[@shaun7142]

@@joelanderson5285 I take it you didn't pay attention to what I wrote; "I'm sure Trump does have something approaching a 'vision' for the country, but it is so warped as to be unrecognizable." Nor did you address the central point. Their claim was that libertarians, "only listen to the sound of their own farts", which is clearly false, and yet you had nothing to say about that. Good job.

[@michaelmeehan9083]

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future." Yogi Berra.