REPLAY: S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 - US Stock Market 2024 Big Picture Analysis & Longer-Term Outlook

[@kdavids1009]

Great analysis as always Steve. I can say with a high level of certainty that the market this year would be profitable since I have seen it firsthand. Knowledge and professionalism are unparalleled.

[@askSlimTeam]

Many thanks for your comments

[@douglasjefferson8533]

what makes you so certain ma’am ?

[@kdavids1009]

I believe everyone got a unique means of operating, I’ve seen firsthand the importance of an FA as regards lucrative investment. My portfolio has seen consistent positive returns.

[@user-dr2ky5sb1u]

Thank you for taking the time to make this! Really appreciate it. It takes guts to make such bold calls publicly.

[@askSlimTeam]

Yes, thank you!

[@doug5246]

I find this interesting and useful. It's very ambitious to predict both price and timeframe---I can't really think of anyone else doing this based on cycles. I also find it interesting that you slightly adjust your cycle lengths as you go along; because things change! Good stuff! You've got a frequent viewer here. Thanks!

[@askSlimTeam]

Great comments! Thanks!

[@jz77096]

Wow lots of money to be made if correct. Also SPX close to top trendline since 1920s log scale

[@askSlimTeam]

Oh. Have to check that out

[@chairman67]

The YT algo presented this vid to me.. I love market cycles analysis.. very interesting.. and so I subbed.

[@askSlimTeam]

Awesome, thank you!

[@seankhrazmi2712]

Thank you for the video Slim. I have 2 questions and I hope you can answer them. Can we still rely on the Vix with the zero day to expiry options? And can the market really decline with QE and the Fed buying the dip every time. If the Fed hadn’t stepped in back in March of last year, things would have gotten ugly. Thank you for your time.

[@askSlimTeam]

1) I don't believe zero day expiration effects the intermediate or long-term patterns in VIX 2) Right now we have QT and sharply declining money supply. The lagging effects of THAT is the immediate concern. We're a long way off from the next round of QE.

[@seankhrazmi2712]

Slim...thank you so much for answering my questions. I appreciate your work and knowledge@@askSlimTeam

[@egosystem9959]

So, Friday the SPY closed less than 1% higher than the 2022 high and less than 1 % higher than the 2021 high. but we have had 13 to 15% inflation during that period. So, in real dollar terms we ain't in a Bull market... (more like two thirds of a bear market)

[@askSlimTeam]

Interesting perspective

[@jamonzonv]

So we got to 5100 points in the SP500 already end of February... how would this projections look like now?

[@askSlimTeam]

Its been updated in this weeks show

[@rc2276]

I really enjoyed this presentation. I love long term charts.

[@askSlimTeam]

Great to hear!

[@Juanro_7]

Once explained like this, I agree with the macro view. I was thinking of a swamped cycle starting to form but big picture-wise there is more wick left to burn going up. Inflation has to go really ugly as well

[@askSlimTeam]

I don't know your time reference toa "swamped cycle." There was already one in the weekly chart this month. Its too soon to tell on the monthly.

[@Rbsvious]

I had noticed similarities between 2017-2021 to 2021-2023 (possibly to 2024). Current cycle is reminding me of a stretched out version of 2017-2021. Thought we would break the ATH in the s&p then dump just like we did in 2018.

[@askSlimTeam]

Watch out for March -April

[@callme_iso]

How am i suppose to understand your graph ? You should make a tutorial or a video explaining how it works. Btw i'm new to this channel, did your forecasts end up having results ? Over the long term ?

[@askSlimTeam]

You can become a member and we discuss our charting style all of the time.

[@jeffy911]

Wow Slim, that was very insightful. Thank you so much for sharing that. You're the best!

[@askSlimTeam]

Glad you enjoyed it! Appreciated

[@ahmadal-rubayee6085]

Great analysis. s&p500 hit 500 this already does it mean we are getting earlier correction or are we still aiming for end of April early may?!

[@askSlimTeam]

Thank you, the timing has not changed. However, the downside targets have been raised.

[@Jaroej]

Slim, that's a great job you did. Some remarks. Morgan Stanley says that EURUSD rate could go down to some 1.04 value in first half of the year. This would mean correction in stock market. They also see that strength in business cycle that can last till half of 2025. So this can represents a SP500 peak in first half of 2025. I’m from Poland and I do a cyclic analysis for a polish WIG index. There should be peak (43 month’s cycle) in stock market between 1 November 2024 and 1 August 2025.

[@askSlimTeam]

Thank you! I greatly appreciate your comments. And your stock market analysis aligns well with mine. If you check out the analysis we posted on the dollar and euro, and the separate one on interest rates, you will see that you analysis on euro is different than mine.

[@providencez9496]

Sorry Steve. When u mentioned SPX cross gold. What does it mean? Gold will go up and SPY down? Whats the price target for the cross though?

[@askSlimTeam]

Yes, that is what I said in the year-end special video on the stock market, posted on KZbin. 3200ish

[@Juanro_7]

I mean, an ARKK price going from 30 to 50 is big, not compared to what it was but a swing trade was good. Wouldn’t hold it long term

[@askSlimTeam]

For ARKK, after falling 80% plus, that bounce is not much. However, if one bought it near the lows, at 30, it would be significant. Most were happy to see the bounce and are losing less.

[@AD24873]

Already blew through your upside target for 2025 - thoughts that it will exacerbate the mid-year pullback or does that cancel it?

[@askSlimTeam]

This will be discussed in our next market week live.

[@gregoriomancini5876]

but what about now? the chart changed a lot from this video...

[@askSlimTeam]

Yes, members have been shown a change

[@baggervance8454]

SPX just hit high of 5030, what does that do to your calculations now? Pullback imminent?

[@askSlimTeam]

Slightly raises downside targets.

[@javiswayne]

Thanks from Peru

[@askSlimTeam]

You're welcome

[@bigmoose143]

When was this recorded?

[@askSlimTeam]

Midday Friday- as usual

[@bigmoose143]

@@askSlimTeam sorry, I meant the date?

[@theblockchainadvisor-cenac8683]

Great analysis Slim. You always had my respect on the CBOE trading floor. Holding long term volatility can be a struggle as the VXX is designed to decline. Keep up the good work! Do you see any assets classes trading positively in the same time frame from now until 2024-2030?

[@askSlimTeam]

I really appreciate your kind words. I don't project stocks out that far. However, our members are always privy to our intermediate analysis on the stocks and groups.

[@nhardaker]

This could have saved me so much in 2023. Just such good analysis!!

[@askSlimTeam]

Really appreciate that!

[@nigrifrons]

Great work!

[@askSlimTeam]

Thanks!😊

[@ШитиковВиктор]

You are the best !

[@askSlimTeam]

Many thanks

[@krisnah7]

Top analysis

[@askSlimTeam]

Appreciate that!

[@Grateful.forever]

Thank you so much.😊

[@askSlimTeam]

Very welcome 🙏

[@MK-pj5qk]

Thank you so much for your great analysis!

[@askSlimTeam]

My pleasure!

[@BigErnieBrown]

Packed a lot of info in. 🏆🏆🏆

[@askSlimTeam]

😀🙏👍

[@paluszter]

Very nice analysis. Looks really something like long stagflationary period is before us. I would be personally surprised if we are gonna to see another cyclical bear market as soon as in 2024. I was analysing macro trends and we might have still plenty of time to have another bear (more likely in in second half of 2025 and recession in 2026 - as you have projected). Really like your strategy, analysis, even I do use different trading str. Extremely useful work for traders, thank you!

[@askSlimTeam]

I appreciate these excellent comments.

[@jitenpatel5225]

Now currently spy from @485 can first go down to @467....then again from @467 by 14 feb spy can go up to around @491.....thereafter by 23 March 2024 can again go down to @458.....so expect lots of volatility in next 2 months

[@askSlimTeam]

👍

[@jgzbaby777]

I like the cycle timing

[@askSlimTeam]

Great!

[@michaeldevere694]

Love your work….

[@askSlimTeam]

Thank you!

[@RoryVanucchi]

👍 Great work.. Buddy Guy

[@askSlimTeam]

Thanks 👍

[@paulburbank6256]

The 10 week M.A. exceeds the 40 week M.A. on the indices I follow.

[@askSlimTeam]

👍

[@inicMich-rc5wo]

How does this trading stuff work? I'm really interested but I just don't know how it go about it. I heard people really make it huge trading

[@askSlimTeam]

Can’t answer that huge question here

[@rosjay_2119]

Buy stock everyone is buying them sell it when everyone is selling and repeat 😊

[@maxrossi441]

very good analisis

[@askSlimTeam]

Appreciate that!

[@jackz166]

I hold longs to way beyond Spx 5000

[@askSlimTeam]

OK Good luck!

[@drsjamesserra]

We are already over 5000.

[@askSlimTeam]

I am aware

[@paulc9848]

We hit new highs right so top line is playing out

[@askSlimTeam]

👍

[@superbananamen1735]

Everytime i Watch spx its up another 100 points 🤣 is it always this easy?

[@askSlimTeam]

HA! NO!

[@jz1332]

Seems we are in the 70s again

[@askSlimTeam]

Yes

[@91595sunil]

$AMRSQ $INPX

[@askSlimTeam]

We cannot do requests

[@dualmass]

Everything is over priced, just use some common sense.....

[@askSlimTeam]

✔️

[@alexzagariya2945]

Nice to pick Tesla under 180

[@askSlimTeam]

Thanks!