RETRY: Elden Ring | Ep.29: We Finally Lose Our Minds

After all these years, it's finally happened.

[@patrickbradley4616]

To start, we will assume that for the entire 68 run duration, Finchy had an arcane stat of 22. This means that we are assuming that item discovery was always at its maximum possible unbuffed value for the entire episode. Under this assumption, with an arcane stat of 22, Finchy would have an item discovery of 122. We will include the buff from the 25 Silver Pickled Fowl Foot that were used as a part of a second calculation. With the chicken foot buff, Finchy's item discovery is raised to 172. Now, we need to calculate the adjusted probability for an item with a 3% drop chance to drop for Finchy both with the chicken foot and without. We will use the item discovery formulas from the Elden Ring Fextralife "Discovery" page, which covers item discovery in game. The formulas are: W = Floor(P*10(D/100)) Chance = (W*100)/(1000+(W-(P*10))) Here, P is the % chance for an item to drop, which is 3 for our scenario, and D is the item discovery stat value which are D = {122, 172} for our two cases, without and with the chicken foot buff. Doing the calculation, we find that our adjusted chance for the item to drop without and with the chicken foot are respectively, Chance = {3.63%, 5.05%}. There is therefore a 3.63% chance for the item to drop without the chicken foot buff active, and a 5.05% chance for the item to drop with the chicken foot buff active. We now split the episode into two categories of runs whose sum will total the entire 67 failed runs. The first category are runs that do not have the chicken foot buff active, and the second are the runs that do have the chicken foot buff active. The first category contains 43 runs, and the second will contain the remaining 24 runs. When calculating the probability for item drops after a certain number of runs, it is often easier to calculate the chance that the item does not drop after a given number of runs instead, and then subtract that value from 100% to determine the percent chance of the item dropping. To see why, consider only the first two runs. We will use the original 3% drop chance value in the example for simplicity. After the first run there are two possible outcomes, either we have item or we don't. We have a 97% chance to not get the item and 3% chance to get it after a single run so total percent chance value for the item to drop is simply 3%. However, after two runs we have four total possible outcomes, we could get the item in the first run but not the second run, we could get the item in the second run but not the first, we could get the item on both runs, or we could not get the item at all. To find the probability of each possible outcome after 2 runs we must multiply the probabilities of each run's outcomes together. For example, to calculate the probability that the item drops on the first run and not the second we would multiply 3% with 97%, (0.03)x(0.97) = 0.0291 or 2.91%. It should be noted that the scenario in which the item drops on the second run and not the first has the same probability as what was just calculated as the equation is (0.97)x(0.03) = 0.0291. To calculate the probability that the item drops on each of the two runs we would perform the calculation (0.03)x(0.03) = 0.0009 = 0.09%. If we want to know the probability that we get the item after four runs, we must add together the probability of each successful run, 2.91% + 2.91% + 0.09% = 5.91%. This process only becomes exponentially worse as the number of possible outcomes doubles after each run. After 67 runs, the number of possible outcomes is approximately 2^67 = 1.47 x 10^20 = 147000000000000000000. In all 1.47 x 10^20 outcomes, there is only 1 scenario in which the item never drops after 68 runs. Finding this probability is done simply using the formula P^X, where P is the probability for the item to not drop and X is the number of runs. In our earlier scenario where we only considered the probability after two runs, we can find the probability by calculating (0.97)^2 = 0.9409 = 94.09%. Subtracting this from 100%, we find that we have a 5.91% chance for the item to drop. This result agrees with our earlier calculation. With the groundwork now set, we can begin finding the probability that Finchy will get the Redmane Knight Armor, which has a base drop chance of 3%, after 43 runs with an item discovery of 122, then another 24 runs with an item discovery of 172. In the first scenario, the adjusted drop chance for the armor is 3.63%. Therefore, the chance for the armor to not drop is 100% - 3.63% = 96.37%. After 43 runs, the chance that the armor does not drop is (0.9637)^43 = 0.2039 = 20.39%. In the second scenario, the chance for the armor to not drop is 100% - 5.05% = 94.95%. The probability for the armor to not drop after 24 runs is then (0.9495)^24 = 0.2883 = 28.83%. To find the probability of failure after each of these two scenarios, we need only multiply both of the probability for failure in each scenario together, (0.2883)x(0.2039) = 0.0588 = 5.88%. If we subtract this percentage from 100%, we can see that 94.12% of theoretical players who did this would have gotten the armor by the 68th run. Congratulations RKG, you are among the top 5.88% of Elden Ring's most unlucky players. Now go enjoy some king sized, dark chocolate dick snickers.

[@garethwilliams3583]

Surely this deserves at a minimum, a like from the RKG account!

[@RaymondEggwhites]

Thank you for this. My friends and I just nerded out about this!

[@BoatSoccerPlayer]

Was not expecting to break out my old Stats coursework, but this all checks out! May the odds ever be in your favor, I guess, lol Edit: Actually, it's worse than that, they needed 1 of two items, so the drop rate is essentially twice as likely, which if I did the math right means that there was a 99.65% chance of something dropping by then...Miyazaki's revenge, I think

[@JAHIDxJD]

Just wow...

[@allang.galeano4843]

Wow, this was amazing!

[@gamergrub6917]

Once the counter showed up, I knew it was gonna be wild ride

[@drews_day_off]

This feels like the RKG equivalent of the fly episode from Breaking Bad, it sounds like filler but turns out to be a maddening masterful work of art. Welcome to the retry hall of fame episode 29!

[@gamergrub6917]

Can't wait for their Ozymandius

[@Darkprosper]

They can't keep getting away with this !

[@bossdozz]

This is the 3rd? Time ive seen this comment on an RKG video and its 100% accurate

[@sam_i_am_300]

Retry Elden Ring Episode 29 Stats Crimson Flasks: 103 (1618 total) Cerulean Flasks: 1 (297 total) Shrimp: 0 (15 total) Parries: 26 (100 total) Guard Counters: 0 (33 total) Cutaways: 4 (61 total) Dones: 1 (15 total) Michael Zaki Mentions: 1 (41 total) Spirit Ash Summons: 0 (118 total) NPC Summons: 0 (15 total) Cymru Counter: 0 (9 total) Rainbow Stones: 0 (16 total) Accidental emotes: 1 (At least 42) Pints 10 (12 total) Deaths: 4 (573 total) Bosses Defeated: Probability NPC Invaders: None Dungeons complete: None Knights: 69 Chicken Feet: 36 Times Items Dropped: 22 Boots: 10 Gloves: 4 Shield: 6 Sword: 3 Armour: 1 Rory Pints:4 Krupa Pints: 2 Gav Pints: 4

[@mattangell9098]

Big fan of Daniel wearing that t-shirt for an entire episode of farming a single morsel of tasty lore.

[@onocny]

"I get more treats? Am I getting put down today or something" god damn ideal ending for an ideal episode

[@drewsterk1]

Top 3 RETRY episodes of all time. The shield and boots dropping together killed me off

[@overseasguy]

Absolutely done 'em!

[@TheByrdman85]

I think we need a "Run It Again" shirt with greaves, gauntlets, shields, and fowls printed all over it. Loved every minute of it boys :)

[@partialprops]

And one chest…

[@Slausondesigns]

Run it Again with a Run the Jewels logo except the right hand is holding a fowl foot

[@supremebuffalo6322]

Put the entire description of the chest armor on the back of the shirt 😂

[@BryceLK]

@Slausondesigns A hand holding a foot feels convoluted to me. Especially when a fowl has only feet and no hands; i think you can just make them the hands in the logo. That's how I immediately saw it when I began reading your comment and I loved it.

[@charlottesreadsthings211]

I am going to be hearing Gav saying "run it again" in my head for weeks.

[@osric190]

Run it again! Run the simulation again!

[@Nrazzz22]

My favorite thing was checking the timestamp every time someone said, "this is it" then seeing how much video was left 😂

[@Peashmur]

3 Reasons why this was the most valuable content RKG has produced 1. Relatable. Grinding Cleanrot knights for their gear was a chore. 2. Provided a look into gambling addictions in society and it’s mental effects. 3. Reminded me of Walter White in “The Fly” episode of Breaking Bad.

[@troy8420]

I fucking lost it at Rory realizing he was the voice of reason while Daniel looks like an absolute madman lmao

[@jeomaiduldulao6655]

Where?

[@abnerrufino3613]

​@@jeomaiduldulao66551:19:59

[@shadowxps]

around 1:20:00@@jeomaiduldulao6655

[@jordanomaly]

​@@jeomaiduldulao6655 when they were pushing for the rebirth arcane build lol.

[@randymcleod6147]

This is genuinely one of the best episodes, absolutely riveted. I feel like a gambler that can't quit the table

[@rocksun1933]

So here are my stats of the episode: 68 Knights, 10 boots, 6 shields, 4 gauntlets, 3 swords, 1 chest piece Damn.... that knight sure loves boots.....

[@silentspartan46]

All that and no helm?

[@akhilbhatt4746]

All that and no head?@@silentspartan46

[@tifosiye]

You know the situation was dire when Rory was the rational one

[@rocksun1933]

Me reading the title when notification shows up: Huh what could have done this? a cave? a catacomb? a field boss? NO.... a f-ing knight

[@fedwyn]

68 knights actually

[@sircundoo]

I know you don’t want to hear this lads but this is the hardest I’ve laughed all series. Absolutely spectacular.

[@chrishendrickson2585]

"this is such a stupid idea". No, this is a genius way of getting the causally lost runes from the last 28 episodes.

[@rowanlamb]

I watch Retry for the banter, and for Daniel’s thoughtful and comprehensive lore explanations. This episode was pure heaven for me.

[@Stephano217]

That counter popping up was such a dark omen hahaha what an absolute banger episode. It's proof that you boys could stream literally nothing but TV Static and the charisma charm and banter you three have together is captivating as hell. An episode for the history books.

[@CiaranCorrigan86]

I’m 26 knights in and i can’t even remember what they’re doing this for anymore, but i am INVESTED

[@rocksun1933]

I'm on 43 knight now and they have more boots for a centipede.

[@osric190]

@@rocksun1933 It was that pesky Gowry's fault ! Knew that centipede pest was trouble

[@wingdings369]

Pure Madness! But also genuinely funny. This ep is definitely a favorite of mine.

[@dankilrea]

I was so hyped and ready to see the festival and an epic boss episode. Somehow this was just as funny and surpassed my expectations. Great episode lads

[@partialprops]

Rory pumping himself up and saying, “I’ve got the next one, I’ve got the next one!” *halfway through the episode* told me everything I needed to know for this one. Absolutely loved it and can’t wait for next week’s episode!

[@hunterroling4342]

20 minutes in and I've laughed more this episode than i have so far this series 😂

[@jonimated]

I feel like Padme in that Start Wars meme. "Surely this is the episode they fight Radahn, right Anakin?" 46 minutes later "Right...?" Only RKG could make an episode about farming a single minor enemy for over an hour entertaining 🤣

[@jcace13]

Any other channel would've done a couple of runs, given up and looked it up online. RKG makes this into an episode full of laughs. Well done.

[@omnissiah7247]

This was the single greatest piece of media I've ever witnessed in my entire life. Well done lads, ya done did it!

[@BenH5150]

Aunty Finchy’s suck shop is the kinda merch I would purchase immediately while knowing I would never be able to wear it out in public without people looking at me strange 😂

[@mitchb9882]

This is peak RKG and it's maybe my favorite episode of this series so far - cheers for making a hard time in my life happier boys

[@MrLazyPhD]

Really goes to show how strong the boys friendship is that they somehow had fun nearly the entire time

[@JamesOD91]

I've been replaying Elden Ring along with you boys and these episodes. Getting to this episode with my playthrough, I had a quick look at the comments and thought it was gonna be hell on earth. I got the armor twice and 2 helmets in about 15 minutes. Truly one of the best episodes RKG has ever done. Worth every single penny of my Patreon sub. The best of the best, slugs!

[@kenallsop7502]

Y'know what? Maybe I just lost my mind alongside you boys, but I really enjoyed that snippet of lore. Very touching. Worth it.

[@adlessyt3129]

This is the most I've laughed at one of your videos and I've been in since PTT. Absolutely hilarious

[@ahbleza13]

There’s a frenetic energy to this episode that I love, and truly harkens back to PTT season 1. Having heard you guys talk about not being treated the best back then, I’m glad to see that the same energy can be captured while you’re working in much better conditions. Loved this episode!!!

[@vicentematos8464]

2 things: 1 - love how the first montage in demons souls was to get the chinning mits and and this one we got 2 just for chicken feet lol 2- the bants alone make this episode legendary

[@whipseryname4295]

As a long term wow player, watching this was so theraputic for me.

[@patricoda]

So THIS is why the next episode is delayed! they'll be nursing that hangover for a good week 😂

[@alexintheory]

First episode I could watch a week early as a new patron - worth the price of admission alone 😅

[@RKG]

We're so sorry.

[@griffithwilliams_1]

Started the video, and then scrubbed through a little bit looking at the preview, and was like "huh, kinda looks like they fight one normal guy the entire 90 minute video. lmao, that would be crazy" and it was crazy hahahaha

[@Eckdirt]

You know you guys have something special when an episode about you farming the same knight over and over again ends up being a banger like this. Never change, Boys. The slugs will follow you wherever you go!

[@MaxStephens77]

Gav with the NOFX shout 🙌 one of my favorite bands in high school haha

[@RKG]

I’ve just got properly back into them too. So silly - Gav

[@erdna10]

This is the stuff legends are made of. Outstanding.

[@Nast33iSsHxC]

This episode is absolutely hilarious. Anyone who didn't enjoy this really doesn't enjoy the core, heart of why the RKG boys are the most amazing let's play out there.

[@maxt5319]

What a ridiculous episode! I loved it. Honestly, I'm surprised that farming for an hour and thirty minutes could be so entertaining. The pure elation when it finally dropped was so funny. Seeing you all get so wound up after getting those greaves over and over again was so funny. 😂 Also, I did that farm for the Dark Souls 3 platinum as well. Took HOURS.

[@quintonbuyck1020]

Only halfway through and this might be my favorite episode yet. Give the boys a laugh

[@AJRContra]

Having a really tough week and this has cheered me up no end! This is vintage RKG, absolutely hilarious ep boys.

[@ootf]

Champagne Retry. Bloody loved this. ❤ You know you're onto something special when you can focus a whole episode on this aspect of the game.

[@LootTheTruth]

As soon as that first counter popped I knew what we were in for 😂

[@dinnerboi]

I cannot believe how entertaining and fun yall made farming lmao. Legends.

[@ArtoriasJax]

I give this episode the Gav official nod of approval 👏🏼 Cracking episode, bring on Radahn

[@charlottecasant2122]

You guys are dragging me through a rough time, thank you so much

[@RKG]

You got this ❤

[@AaronNesbitt]

Aye so like… you’re going to hate this but…. What a fucking banger of an episode. When the banter is on point and the mission is clear.

[@ballunix]

extra kudos on the b-roll shot for the opening this week! really great choices!

[@nicksmith9640]

I never thought this is how I'd be spending Saturday night, but here we are. 10/10 episode

[@infinityappears]

This is the best boss episode so far.

[@burntsweater_8574]

When Rory has to be the voice of reason you know they've lost it! I loved this episode boys thanks for the laughs!

[@shadowpsyke]

This is the best episode, easily. I had the same issue grinding for the Grave Scythe at the start of Liurnia

[@pmoneyelite4719]

I am in literal tears watching you all unravel at the boot drops. Top tier mates!

[@donalcahalane1222]

Powers -I've never had tia Maria before . Also Powers - tastes like a baby Guinness 😂

[@hyc10]

Genuinely one of the best episodes… I was HOOKED like a gambling addict waiting for that payout

[@Lewis-pt7wv]

Really enjoyed the amount of random banter in this episode, my favourite part of RKG.

[@ambientvibes2118]

Most enjoyable episode so far, I love your dedication and camaraderie ❤💙💚.

[@ripleyinskates]

Rory asking if hes gonna be put down at the end is the funniest thing hes ever said. 😂

[@goodcupoftea5746]

I love this episode 😂 Not sure what changed but you guys were so relaxed and bouncing perfectly off each other today! ❤

[@willhoe3272]

To be awfully honest, I think this is the best Elden Ring episode so far. The fact that you guys created a goldmine of content out of absolutely miserable gameplay is just the best testament to how wonderful your stuff is.

[@jonathanbarlow5387]

Absolutely incredible episode, up there with sone of the best content across PTT and RKG.... and I'm only halfway through 😂 A beautiful encapsulation of how you boys can create such fun out of a situation that could be maddeningly mundane on other channels!

[@IcyLucario]

You know.... The armor really complements not only the shield, but the sword too.

[@TheNinteno]

Been watching RKG/PTT since my GCSE days when the first episode of Dark souls 1 came out. After all these years of studying I finally have a job with a steady income I can finally become a Patreon supporter!!! I’m quite stingy when it comes to money but this is money well spent for sure! Not only do I get to support you guys but I can’t wait to all the podcasts that have been piling up. I’ve recently started running and found that listening to your guy’s podcast is a game changer, can’t wait to go on more runs! (The 100 questions Christmas episode really got me through the initial runs haha)

[@leojbone86]

A brilliant example of a bottle episode, and one of your finest yet.

[@Katubug]

This is unironically my favorite episode so far. It's delightful to have you boys yelling at your screen instead of my bf and I yelling at ours 😂

[@GoldnDusty]

40 minutes in and I feel like I'm losing my mind. This is like when I was farming the Cleanrot Knights and their chest armour wouldn't drop.

[@BurstVessels]

Gav, even if you didn't edit this episode, I'm sure it was very hard work just being present for it, so I'm going to tell you something you were right about: US craft beer. A few years ago you said it was almost all too-sweet IPAs, and I was in a bit of a bubble and thought no wayyy, but the more time goes by and I see what's on offer at grocery stores and gas stations, I have to begrudgingly admit that you were completely right. There is an absolutely enormous volume of same-y too-sweet IPAs in every "craft beer" selection I've looked at lately. Sure there are some amazing standouts in the US brewing industry but the glut of junk has pretty much totally eclipsed it, to the point that many of the best brewers are forced to sell beer strictly from their breweries, because the distributors don't want to bother with good beer. By the way, the best brewer in my city? Is from the UK 😮

[@RKG]

I got really into craft Amber Ales in Minnesota. Basically like lagers with a little bit more going on. IPAs are a bit too heavy for me now. Diolch for the comment - Gav x

[@Snackery24]

Not sure I can ever eat a Snickers without thinking of a veiny Snick now. Thanks lads.

[@RKG]

Our pleasure!

[@jordanomaly]

Legitimately the best episode yet. From snickers chat to losing their minds slowly, to gav and Daniel both pushing for an arcane rebirth, to real snickers being eaten. Also, someone please do the math for the odds of being this unlucky.

[@TheMaacGaming]

RKG Redmane socks coming soon! Great episode, one of the best Retry ever.

[@M00SHTY]

"This is our last chicken foot" Just really made me laugh because its such a mad thing to say out of context

[@rocksun1933]

And the line "I'm out of feet" LOL

[@VIIStar]

@@rocksun1933 - and 'can you stack feet' and 'something Ed Gein would ask' 😂

[@ddanielisjefff]

The pain of a low drop rates is almost as bad as a cold infusion. Amazing episode, lads!

[@GlynJohns-s5f]

Gotta be honest this is my favourite episode of the series yet. The banterbus is going at 90 to the nearest Oneils. Thank you gents @RKG for the consistent quality content!

[@jakehowry939]

The second montage. I’m crying

[@mattwolf1595]

This episode was fantastic loved all the added music bits so funny 😂

[@mikepmcgehee]

I have nothing to say that hasn't already been covered better by everyone here but my god, what an episode. Actual tears of laughter favorite episode of the series so far with so many more to come. Bloody cheers

[@omrikadim8864]

Absolutely masterful display of sunken cost theory, lads - thank you for that! 😂

[@russmogg9754]

That montage/music @1:05:00 made it all worth while😂

[@therealcozyboy13]

When they busted out the Redmayne Knight counter the first time Powers killed him, you just knew they were in for it

[@rw3426]

"Tuck Shops not Suck Shops!" Pure gold

[@TheBaileybomb91]

In other news the Redmane knights have now been added to the endangered species list

[@hodge105]

Me: This will be a nice 5 minute distraction before they head to Redmane castle… Gav after 50 minutes: Patreon members can watch the next episode, where we finally head to Redmane castle. Me: Dear god What a banger!

[@azamonra]

I was laughing my arse off at the half way point. Classic simple little detour turned madness stuff from the boys. You couldn't write it.

[@theroguerider]

You know something has gone completely wrong when Rory is the only voice of reason. #AllArcane

[@Lady_Vengeance]

Oh THIS knight! Gives me so much PTSD. On my offensive shield build I was on the hunt to get every shield in the game. I farmed this fucking bastard like 100 times over the course of several evenings to get that goddamn cool-looking shield to drop. So wild to find the boys have an entire Retry episode descending into the same madness!! If only I had a Krupa and a Gav sitting next to me to keep the banter flowing. Cheers, boys! Sword and Fang

[@mmmsome]

This was an absolute roller coaster - one of the best RKG episodes of all time.

[@oswgaming809]

This episode was a digitised descent into madness & I'm here for it. Incredible content lads

[@jaiaxe7145]

Hi Lads, I have done some fairly basic calculations and think i have found the chances of not getting the item in the 68 attempts. For simplicity i rounded the drop chance up to 5% to account for arcane and the silver feet. The chances of not getting these items in the 68 attempts was 1.33%

[@bernardolange8739]

You did it, guys. You turned a “boring” and grindy episode into an all timer for the Retry series. I hope it was worth ruining your sanity. Keep it up! Amazing series so far

[@aksen303]

that....was art, gentlemen.

[@ThatGuyCalledSteeve]

I'm assuming that the Radahn episode will be the end of part 1 so that makes this episode way better, not only does it give us one more before the break but it's also the calm before the storm

[@oranjekenny]

Here's to the intro! The weekly appreciation comment is here! So freaking epic! Love you, slugs!

[@Lady_Vengeance]

>Reads title >Drops everything and fires up KZbin

[@linamiller4208]

Radahn just might be the best boss in ER. Especially when going in blind. I'm sooo excited for next episode! Also; as someone who enjoys loot games quite a lot, I can more than sympathize with the seemingly endless grind without getting what you need, it's brutal!