Rising Term Premiums Could Be A Big Problem For Interest Rates

[@nadinesaunders5584]

Many thanks - really helpful 😊

[@bssb936]

Excellent thanks

[@soloman747]

Nailed it on the weekly bearish engulfing.

[@matmerz]

Yep. Closed at 46. Big trouble comin

[@Scott_72]

Just came back here to say the same thing. When this video came out I thought "there is no way", but there ya go. Will be interesting to see if we get an inside candle or two then a bigger drop.

[@Kombaiyashii]

Thank you.

[@Carol-cb9yu]

Yes, helpful. Thanks

[@mervingoose1151]

yup very good thanks my man ..

[@blank-964]

Thanks

[@steveh7823]

Rates breaking out of falling trend line dating back to the 1980s is a big deal.

[@cvrart]

The bond market may end up dictating "higher for longer". Reckless spending by the US government and an unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to blame if rates stay high or even go higher. We're going to be hitting up against the so-called debt maturity wall where ultra low financing rates for corporations are a thing of the past and debt needs to get rolled over at much higher rates, if the Fed can't come to the rescue because their hands are tied. Corporations will need to go back to public markets for their borrowing, in part by issuing shares and diluting shareholders - the opposite trend to what we've seen with share buybacks. The pace of layoffs and other cost cutting measures will pick up, so it seems like a fairly painful recession would be hard to avoid in 2025.

[@jkent746]

Good information, thx

[@joelh3364]

I shorted TSLA and SPY on close, probably should have bought puts. But lets see how mon-tue next week shape up based on your weekly s&p close. Thanks for the heads up there.

[@Scott_72]

Good setup for S&P short, not sure about TSLA. These meme stocks tend to have a mind of their own.

[@TY-qn6ed]

I believe TSLA will test ATH in few months.

[@PJC-kf1gj]

Totally lost you on the 10year yield trend. Are you saying the 10 year yield is establishing a more persistent higher yield going fwd?

[@TradingwFreddy]

In my opinion the SPX is in a pullback now to its old ATH at 5.683… and then we’ll see if the bulls can hold this level

[@b3746]

I would argue that there is a huge carry trade shorting US10Y. Just get the moviment on 10US rates and the yen after the first fed cut. Have a look at it closely. Japan is having elections this Sunday. If BOJ increase rates again you will see all this unfold. Just look what happened in August

[@mariaandjohnyoung7057]

Bingo! This has been my thesis of late. The carry trade is controlling the market with many different structured trades. Carry trade is just taking advantage of the seasonality of rising dollar and yield in October.

[@thijsgadella]

So if the BOJ hikes the trade will rewind and the 10 year yield will drop right? Im guessing dollar will drop too and the yen will subsequently rise limiting the carry trade more with a vicious cycle?

[@Kombaiyashii]

What are the conditions needed for the market to think Japan will increase interest rates?

[@PJC-kf1gj]

Newbie here. Can you tell me if shorting the 10yr means betting on the yield to fall?

[@b3746]

​@@KombaiyashiiJapan is having elections this Sunday and raising minimum wage is the main proposal from incumbent and challenging parties. Massive yen devaluation is hurting japanese citizens. So either FED aggressively cuts or BOJ will need to increase rates

[@gmarkv10]

Thank you