Roth Conversion Breakeven? Don’t Make This MISTAKE in 2023...

[@wdeemarwdeemar8739]

For me the ability to not have RMD’s and avoiding the widow tax trap when my wife or I make that last revelry is as important to me as any other benefit.

[@CodaBroda]

RMDs are something entirely overlooked on channels or social media aimed at younger people like myself when discussing Roth vs Tradtional investing; it's only properly discussed on channels that focus solely on retirement/retirees. Shame too, because younger investors' dollars are so powerful. Luckily found the information on RMDs before my Traditional bucket was too large to start sensibly converting in my working years, but I imagine others won't be so lucky

[@EasterBunny325]

Exactly. The tax rate will never be lower than it is now. If we lose a spouse, our tax rate almost doubles. With the national debt, congress will never lower our tax rate. And, they probably will be forced to raise it, considering how they throw money away. Also, our current tax rate is temporary. It’s slated to go up for the 2026 tax year. Take it out in small portions over 2024 and 2025.

[@apeel2008]

You videos are the best. Hands down. I will watch every one going forward. That said, I noticed that recently you have added a music sound track in the background. I would respectfully suggest that you do not do this going forward. Depending on what type of device someone is watching your videos on, or how old the listener is, the music can make it more difficult to hear you well and focus on the details you are presented. Thanks for all your efforts!

[@terryadams1830]

I agree on all counts! Eric is the best, but the music is a distraction (although this video is much better in that respect, for me, than the last one). I would prefer no background music so I can concentrate on Eric's content and clear speaking voice. Thanks again, Eric!

[@ralphparker]

@@terryadams1830 I agree! The less music the better.

[@rnggall9640]

I listen to these sped up, music is very distracting

[@tjbonzo]

great CONTENT - get rid of the music please

[@cindymartinez8347]

Music is distracting!

[@mikeryan3678]

Thank you for this. 99% of so-called experts get this wrong. Current and future tax rates are the ONLY consideration.

[@gg80108]

but what is amazing there does not seem to be any calculators where one can play what if games with. Schwabs got a simple one, the only one I could find but does not show any real tax saving numbers.

[@keithmachado-pp6fv]

You are correct, the % tax rate you pay is the only thing that matters. With that said, it is not your tax bracket which determines your marginal tax rate, it’s your average/effective rate. Simple example you convert $100k today while in the 22% bracket and pay 22k tax all up front today. If instead you defer and are later in the 25% bracket it appears you would have come out ahead by converting. However, if you have very little income other than your SS and RMDs, the average tax paid on the RMD will likely be much lower than 22%, as you take advantage of the annual inflation adjustments to the standard deduction and tax brackets.

[@jpdriver1967]

One of the best explanations of the hurdles I have seen. Thank you! This reaffirms my decision to complete conversions before taking SS.

[@davidroush1224]

Agree with most of the presentation. It captures many of the reasons my wife and I are making significant annual ROTH conversions over about a 15 year period until I reach RMD age for my 401k & IRA. We are also delaying claiming SS until I am 70. We don't need the income now and taking it before 70 just reduces the ROTH annual conversion amount we can make before breaching the next tax bracket. We are about 7 years into our conversion ladder and already converted approximately $800,000. I slightly disagree with the conversion example showing the ROTH never catches up. The calculation uses $100k left in a tax deferred account vs. only $80k for the ROTH, assuming you used part of the conversion for the taxes. But it is different if you convert the entire amount then pay the taxes due out of pocket, i.e. the full amount ($100k in this example) is invested in the ROTH as well. This is how we have approached it. I fully agree it is all about later tax rates. I still think in terms of time (sorry). For example, if I paid $20k out of pocket to move that full $100k into the ROTH, then if it is invested making 6%, it has paid me back for that conversion in a little over 3 years. Now assume the $100,000 might double 3 times before an heir would need to exhaust these funds, or to $800,000. If the heir is still in the 20% bracket, they will owe $160,000 on the tax deferred account vs. just the $20,00 tax paid on the ROTH decades before. Another consideration is the "widow tax" where one spouse passes then the survivor often moves up at least one tax bracket as they have to file single. ROTHs can help reduce RMD income to avoid a surviving spouse permanently being pushed into higher brackets. And, if you believe that the government will need to raise more tax money over the coming decades, then the ROTH conversion earlier would have been even more valuable. That is how we came to the decision to make significant ROTH conversions and bleed down the 401ks and IRAs as much as possible before RMD age. It will be too late to reduce RMDs later, so the earlier the better and greater the benefits, especially if at least of us lives another 20 years then 10 more for our heirs. Definitely worth the pain now in our situation.

[@mr.j2776]

Makes perfect sense to me. I will be paying the tax from my savings as well.

[@davidroush1224]

@@mr.j2776 One tool we use to reduce the out of pocket expense is donation of stock. We have stocks we bought ~30 years ago that have gone up almost 10 times what we paid. If we sold those shares, we would pay taxes on that 90% gain. Instead, we donate some shares to a local school every year. We get current market value to write off of our taxes. When we first started we donated about $15,000 in stocks (that we had roughly $1500 in decades earlier) and it offset about $65,000 of ROTH conversions at our tax bracket. We the pay taxes out of pocket on the amount that we convert over that. Very useful for us. If you have highly appreciated assets to donate, might be worth a look. Good luck with your ROTH conversions.

[@mr.j2776]

@@davidroush1224 Thank you. At this point, I have a much more manageable balance in my rollover IRA.

[@anthonyfaust886]

You might disagree with his example but he is correct. You are comparing $100k to $120k. Not the same amount. Additionally he left out the net tax amount which usually reduced the difference even further. Prepayment of taxes only make sense if you know your tax rate will go up. For the majority of people the tax rate will go down in retirement.

[@davidroush1224]

@@anthonyfaust886 This analysis and similar articles often discuss the effects of converting "X" amount then they choose a tax rate to say a Roth comes up short and that is to me that is sloppy. $100k or any amount placed in either a Roth or 401k in the exacty the same investments will produce exactly the same balance over decades in that account. The important differenct as you note is in the tax rates at time of conversion vs. distribution. If one can make conversions early in retirement and time it when there may be little to no taxes are due on small amounts, or combine it with of setting deductions or charitable gifts, then the Roth looks increasingly better. Especially if tax rares increase later. As for tax rates, the current ones sunset in 2026 if not renewed. It also seems extremely likely to me tax rates will go up over the coming decade given the wild spending of Congress and the national debt. Over 50% of all current retirees already make enough that the pay taxes on at least part of their SS checks and since not indexed to inflation that will just increase as well. Place your bets as you see the future unfolding.

[@mikefochtman7164]

I've been looking into this a lot lately. Since I have a pension, when I file for SS at 70, I will be in the enviable position of not needing to withdraw from any tax deferred account. But as they continue to grow, my RMDs will also. For me, it actually looks like I can convert a lot, even at the cost of higher brackets and IRMAA payments now, for the next 5-6 years. By paying now to do a very large conversion, I can avoid RMDs pushing me into higher tax/IRMAA brackets for (hopefully) many years after age 72. Because growth outpaces RMDs for the first several years, I would end up better off doing the large conversion now (especially if tax rates are expected to rise)

[@i-postm4943]

I was thinking about this sort of thing as well and have converted some to Roth already last year at age 61. No pension. Now with the market downturn and possible long recession, we can't assume market growth will exceed RMDs. That'd impact strategy, no?

[@Antandthegrasshopper]

I'm in a similar situation... Therefore I'm converting @24% tax bracket now at 58 till 63... then dial it down to 22% and hope to keep it at the least expensive IRMAA level. Will stop all conversions at 66.

[@davidbrisbin8735]

Great video! I really like the information that you present and the manner that it is displayed. Thank you also for speaking a little slower - some of the past videos have required me to "rewind" several times to figure out what you said. How about a video (or can you recommend one) about withdrawing money from IRA/401k for living expenses while waiting several years to get full retirement age for Social Security AND doing some Roth conversions at the same time. Thank you again for sharing your knowledge!

[@ellenmariejohnson589]

I agree- thanks for slowing down a bit. Makes the info more digestible. You always have such great info that is presented clearly. My brain just needs to be able to keep up. Thanks again for providing this content.

[@viking_fisherman]

Nobody, and I mean nobody on KZbin explains the complexities of retirement finance issues better than you do!!!!! And you have put out so much information, with just a little effort to find the right videos, anyone can learn all they need to much better understand what they face going into retirement. This better arms folks with the necessary information to better plan their own distribution strategy or to better participate in conversations with a financial planner. Please keep these videos coming!!!

[@vistahawk1688]

Thank You Sir....I have learned a lot from your videos. I started two months ago with zero knowledge of the value of Roth conversions and this week submitted a conversion for 2022 (even though I am still working). I see lots of value in having my money grow tax free and stabilizing my RMDs.

[@kentarquinio7629]

Your presentations are quite thought provoking. I wish that I had watched them five years ago! I am no accountant. So, I am unsure if my analysis is sound. So, one should not act on my observations without confirming that they are correct. A common theme of your videos is that the thing of greatest importance is the amount of tax paid on a conversion today versus the tax on a future conversion. You state that whichever offers a lower taxable rate is the best choice. However, it seems to me that this minimizes the importance of conversion. My understanding is that once a tax deferred account has been converted, there will be no additional tax on future earnings. However, a tax-deferred account not converted will continue to earn income that eventually will be taxed when withdrawn. However, over many years, the funds converted to a ROTH will continue to earn income that is tax-free. Let's assume that converted funds continue to earn income at six percent annually and one is in the thirty-two percent tax bracket (easy to do if one lives in California). In this case, this is a little under a third of the future earnings would be paid as taxes for tax deferred income versus no additional taxes for funds in the Roth. That would result in about two percent additional income per year after taxes. If this is compounded over many years, it would amount to significant income. The implication is that even paying taxes at 40 percent (state and federal) to avoid taxes at 32 percent in the future on an investment that earns six percent annually may be a good idea if one expects to earn income tax-free for several years after the conversion. I calculate that after a little more than four years using such a strategy a person would break even and after that a person would be money ahead. When one considers that a person can also convert a taxable investment to a non-taxable investment by paying the tax on the conversion with funds that would otherwise be taxed in the future, this makes conversions even more attractive. Of course, there are other cost issues such as possibly losing the affordable care act medical premium subsidy or greater premiums for Medicare (IRMAA), and the social security torpedo. These would have to be factored in for people who would be affected. Another concern is the widow's tax. Converting prior to the death of a spouse would eliminate this tax on funds that have been converted to a ROTH. When one considers that some people may have a federal marginal tax rate jump by seven percent or more if one's spouse dies by not converting prior to their death, one can see that early conversions would be beneficial. Another observation that I have is about choices that pensioners might have when starting a pension. I had a choice of whether to continue my pension at the same amount after my death for my surviving spouse or take a larger pension that would decrease or be eliminated upon my death. The pension administrator claimed that the statistical probability of the various options was determined to distribute the same amount of money for the average annuitant. Now that I know about the widow's penalty, I wonder if continuing payments at the full rate was better or taking it earlier might have been a better choice. One final observation is about pensions not indexed to inflation or pensions that are not fully indexed to inflation. My pension is indexed to inflation. However, it is capped at a two percent increase of the first year's benefit each year for the rest of the beneficiary's life. With inflation at eight percent, that means that my pension's purchasing power decreases by roughly six percent in the first year and increasingly more if inflation were to continue at eight percent. If income taxes are indexed for the full amount of inflation, then the tax brackets that I would need to pay in in the future may actually decrease. This might be a factor that a person might consider when making a conversion.

[@robstreicher5561]

This guy is brilliant! I've learned a great deal from him. Love his videos! .

[@KarenDemille]

a lot of good information and I may not understand much of it. I decided 3 years ago to open Roth IRA accounts for our adult daughters and I have funded them and recently opened a Roth for an employed grandchild as well. I received an inheritance from my grandparent that covered my college expenses, so I am paying it forward. So pleased that I began my own conversions a long time ago and with a very reasonable amount in a non-Roth, my RMD's will likely just $5k to start in a couple years. I avoided opening any 529 accounts as I think helping my grandchildren with their college out of my Roth IRA allows me to have more control. The unused 529 conversion to a Roth is nice, but the $35k limit to the conversion is kind of small. I would encourage others that have a desire to leave a legacy to their heirs to consider leaving them some of their inheritance while you can see how it is utilized. Just a thought! Blessing to everyone!

[@terryadams1830]

Excellent video! Thanks Eric! I'm looking forward to your deeper dives on ROTH conversions.

[@timeveritt3659]

Oh man...I need that "Problems that RMDs Can Create" graphic! That's a nice reminder for doing Roth conversions. The Widow Trap should be first and foremost in anybody's mind for a married couple. Huge tax rate increase plus IRMAA plus who knows what else. That plus the SECURE act killing the value of an inherited Traditional IRA really help to tell the story of destroying your hard worked for chance of leaving a legacy. .

[@jimlow6824]

My heirs will be at higher tax brackets than me, therefore I'm doing the conversions and taking the hit now.

[@mikefochtman7164]

And for me, I've a mixed bag. I know one of my heirs will be in a higher bracket, but another will probably not (different careers, different life-choices). At times I've been concerned about this, since it means the 'after-tax' value of their inheritances won't be fairly shared, but what can ya do. Of course if I get most of it tax-free through ROTH conversions, that's one method to help equalize things.

[@jimlow6824]

@@mikefochtman7164 - I think Safeguard did a video about this, possibly passing the ROTH to the higher earner and a slightly bigger Traditional IRA to the lower earner to hopefully equalize things.

[@terryadams1830]

@@mikefochtman7164 Jim is right. Here is a link to the video (it is a good one for your situation): kzbin.info/www/bejne/r5aXfaCHoMSUpJo

[@HB-yq8gy]

Our children will be in lower tax brackets Roth conversions don't make sense SS will be taxed with my pension.

[@jimlow6824]

@@HB-yq8gy - It's great if you can avoid ROTH conversions. Additional income could increase medicare IRMAA as well as pushing you into a higher tax bracket.

[@nikroo92679]

There is indeed a break even point as someone else also seemed to mention. This is given the RMD start up time (now 75 years old given the new law) and how much you earn outside of such forced distributions at that point in time. And of course taking into account the tax brackets as mentioned as the key parameter. So, one can end up with a much more advantaged positon without a conversion if one is in a high tax bracket now and then the early RMDs still put them in lower brackets until the RMD factor becomes so high that one ends up in a higher tax bracket. So one has to put this all into a spreadsheet or formula and indeed find the break even point which does exist.

[@emmymayer6848]

Content is clear and helpful. Thank you. Please ditch the background music. It is highly distracting.

[@rodrigok1220]

So, if you have 7 figures in your retirement accounts and RMD’s start in your early to mid 70’s, it’s beneficial if you can convert some of that money at a lower rate. When RMD’s start, it forces you to take money out. If that pushes you into a 22 or 24% tax rate, you are losing some of that money that you could’ve converted to Roth in smaller increments reducing your future RMD’s.

[@tracyalanlownsberryii4535]

Great Video from another financial professional. I learned a thing or two!

[@brisca3301]

You can trade covered calls/puts after conversion and make that 20% back first year. ;-)

[@namewithheld367]

Excellent video sir. My mother unfortunately passed away at the end of last year very unexpectedly from COVID so now my 82 year old father is in that Widow Trap area and being forced to take large RMDs. My father has asked my sister and I to handle his finances. Any suggestions on how to handle this? We realize that the Trump tax cuts will expire soonish and with the market being so low, we are considering doing a fairly large Roth conversation. If you have another suggestion, we are all ears.

[@rickblake7178]

I saw one of your illustrations mentioned the widow trap but you didn't discuss it and I haven't seen you discuss it in the 5-6 videos I've watched so far. Have you discussed it? It seems to be a big issue for the surviving spouses taxes making a conversion more sensible.

[@keithmachado-pp6fv]

Not judging whether converting is a good decision as that is different for everyone, but there is no such thing as a break even with the exception of converting up to the standard deduction with no other income, in which case you converted for zero tax and know for certainty you will come out ahead by converting. Otherwise you can’t determine the winner until up to 10 years after you and your spouse dies and the account is emptied.

[@SantaBarbaraAlberto]

Sure, it's very insightful. Now, if the future tax rate is like during the RMD period, it is equal to the pre-RMD, and then time in Roth is greater than out of Roth. Right?

[@stephtraveler7378]

RMD's will hit me at 75. Its a tertiary issue for me. My reason for Roth conversions is to take advantage of government entitlements in retirement. No IRMAA, max ACA subsidies, low LTCG rate when I sell securities.

[@headlibrarian1996]

You obviously intend to retire before age 65, otherwise ACA subsidies would be irrelevant. I’m not entirely certain voluntary poverty is the best way to handle ACA. Your insurance is cheap but you can’t afford much of anything else, unless you’re already 59.5 and can draw Roth funds. You can’t do much in the way of Roth conversions either or you blow your subsidy. It’s just too restrictive. I’m thinking the way to go for me is to accelerate conversions before 2026 tax rates hit, but that will make me ineligible for subsidies for several years. I’ll chalk that up as a cost of doing business. IRMAA and NIIT really bother me, even if my base rate is LTCG. The latter isn’t even inflation indexed.

[@lostinmyspace4910]

I think the best way to convert IRA's to ROTH is to do it every year you received the IRA. This way the IRA is as close to principle as possible without having to include interest or gains on the growth. It's one thing to convert $100, but to convert $112 or double the amount, because you didn't keep up just increases your tax expense..

[@ahsugoi]

How should one consider inflation when thinking about present and future tax rates?

[@patbattipaglia2636]

Excellent information thank you!

[@akalrove4834]

This is gold

[@SVaya2018]

Ditch the music...distracting. Thanks for the video.

[@donreinholz8121]

An actively managed Roth account can grow faster than an index Roth so it gives you flexibility and more input.

[@jefflloyd394]

Thanks again Eric! Is there a rule of thumb, or even best guess, at what 401k account balance you should stop making pre tax payments into it, even if in a high tax bracket today? Maybe a tax rate, current age and current account balance triangle ? Cheers,

[@SilverCharlie]

you need to think this out if you pay the conversion tax with other funds. The amount of the payment will make those dollar are then tax free forever. So that the real reason to do a Roth. Thus the 20 percent that you pay in tax initial would grow tax free If you do not use those fund for the tax they would be taxable.

[@teekay_1]

Wouldn't the best way to do the Roth conversion is to put excess money from your RMD's into a Roth?

[@tills4020]

great explanation 🌟

[@brianpeterson1675]

Important question, when is the converted amount available without penalty?

[@SafeguardWealthManagement]

Depends on your age. If you are over 59.5, the converted amount is available right away. If younger, than 5 years or 59.5, whichever comes sooner

[@CritterCamSoCal]

Excellent videos

[@brenn4063]

can you convert any tax deferred account to a ROTH IRA?

[@DB-xp9px]

when someone hits retirement age w/ 1 million+ in their 401k (tax deferred), there appears no reasonable way to avoid all these traps. u can only convert so much each year between retirement and when RMD's kick in. all the while SS income is making the conversions more tax-vulnerable and increasing your obamacare/medicare premiums. in an indirect way, ppl get penalized for being avid savers.

[@kennyhart2699]

To me roth conversions are mostly done to leave your kids millions. I dont like the way my kids spend money so I will leave most of my estate to charities

[@kbmblizz1940]

If my FA doesn't model future tax liability in Roth conversion breakeven analysis, I'd immediately fire him. I've created spreadsht models that take future, ord income tax, cap gain, vs Roth tax free scenario and let me tell you, it depends on what effective tax rates, today vs future, state Roth tax, most important *ROI* you project and your lifespan for your specific case. For most ave ppl, Roth conv is good if hold for long enough compound TIME. !!If one can arbitrate low tax brkt today for higher tax future, then Roth conv may be good. For me, no, bc we'll be in top tax brkt today...and future with RMD.

[@vogeljennifer6318]

approximately what percentage of your portfolio should be in roth, or the best way to know if enough has been converted (especially if you're still working)?

[@terryadams1830]

Maybe Eric will chime in, but I think the allocation will vary. You should consider whether you can reduce the % of your SS, that will be taxed, by increasing the size of your ROTH. You usually should leave enough taxable income to fill the lower tax brackets though (in years after conversion). My plan is to have no pre-tax IRAs. That doesn't make sense for everyone though. I have a medium sized pension that will allow me to fill the lower tax brackets even in the years after my IRAs have been fully converted to ROTHs.

[@ralphparker]

If you are over 59.5, there is nothing wrong with all of it being in a Roth. Assuming you got there tax efficiently.

[@vogeljennifer6318]

im 50 and may end up having to take disability at some point (deaf completely in one ear and deaf in other without hearing aid). of course I'd like to work to 60 if possible. How do I plan? What should be the target percent for roth so that I can prepare?

[@ralphparker]

@@vogeljennifer6318 Your answer is not a percentage but where is the best place to put my future investments for retirement savings and should I make Roth conversions (and how much). This would be based upon your current income levels /tax situation and you need a forward looking tax plan to develop this strategy. Everybody is different and is dependent upon their own economical situation. I used spread sheet for my analysis and accounted for income, expenses (Spend rate), Fed and State Taxes, Medicare and optimize the account value at age 85. I found for me, there is an optimum amount to convert too much and the expected value at 85 starts going down. Note that you have to de-rate the value of your IRA by the rate you pay taxes on it to make the analysis work. For instance, If you are in the marginal tax bracket of 12% with 5% state tax then multiply the IRA account value by .83 to account for those taxes because you can't get the money without paying the tax. I wrote VBA macros to make the tax, Medicare and RMD calculations efficient but the analysis is still a bit tedious because changes early in life have implications in later years that have to be fixed. I pretty sure Safeguard Wealth Management already has a program to do this for you but I don't know how they would charge you to give you your specific recommendation.

[@wdeemarwdeemar8739]

@@vogeljennifer6318there is no reason to have any in traditional in theory but you may have different circumstances and decisions. I personally have 900 k in pre tax traditional and plan on converting about 600. I plan to retire at 60. I am 52. That 300 k I will live on that from 60 to 70. When I run out (roughy 4 years) then will draw from my brokerage account (roughly 2 yrs) then only have Roth and Social Security. I want to avoid having any money in traditional pre tax by the time I would be 72 to avoid RMDs.

[@lostinmyspace4910]

In a sense you can understand what a person is asking when they ask about breakeven. It's not an immediate answer, and may take years and years to finally figure out. Say by age 72 you are forced to make RMD withdrawals on your 401. Whatever you paid in taxes for that RMD or actual withdrawals IS one years' worth of taxes paid. Keeping track of each years scenario of taxes paid on that 401, you're going to get a better picture of annual taxes you paid, vs what you actually paid to have converted years prior. It may take you your entire retirement lifetime to finally figure out what you paid in taxes for in 401 withdrawals. Tax rates may be higher in those later years, so the unknown tax rate will show its ugly head. All in all, I'm sure everyone just knows its cheaper to convert into ROTH than wait it out unless, God forbid you know you're going to die much sooner into your retirement years.Yes, it's a crap shoot, but if you plan to leave money to your children, that valuable ROTH, for their sake, and their future, just convert now little by little before you retire while you're still working and can afford the extra taxes on the conversion, and simplify your life. Isn't it great to say you own a million bucks and it's all tax free?

[@Ameleprep]

Please slow down it’s hard to absorb at that speed

[@shankil2975]

This is the first video that I watched nails the ROTH vs IRA as a "tax breakeven" equation - specifically as it applies to RMD. The best explanation(and also correct way to approach IMHO) I have seen so far. Does anyone agree that future tax rates will tend to be higher due to federal deficit, Trump era tax bracket expiration etc..? If so, all the more reason to look this closely. Another factor to look at is the SEQUENCE of withdrawal. IN this video, the assumption the only source of income is ROTH/IRA draw down. What if one has savings/taxable brokerage accounts? In case of several sources of income, what bucket to dip into first?

[@stephaniepeterson7515]

Please lose the music, distracts from your great content.

[@albertsly8026]

You left out the strategy of NOT paying the taxes out of your Roth conversion withdrawals-take $100K out of Traditional IRA and put the full $100K into a Roth. Pay the $20K in taxes from your other earned income so you maximize the full tax free earnings of your Roth conversion dollars. Don’t waste your tax free earning ability of your IRA dollars!

[@nikroo92679]

You are forgetting that you are now losing $20K you could have gained on outside a tax deferred account as do most who explain this. Not to mention having to come up with the $20 or even larger if you have more to convert.