Russia on the offensive again

I look at the current Russian fall offensive. It was somewhat surprising that Russia had the resources to launch an offensive, but now that it is here, we should expect it to continue for the foreseeable future.
0:00 The Russian fall offensive
0:27 Three offensives of 2023
2:02 A positional deadlock
3:01 Russia's offensive ambitions
3:50 Political reasons for the offensive'
5:12 Brutality of Russia's tactics
5:35 Russia's personnel resources
8:53 Don't expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive
Link to the interview with me on @SiliconCurtain: • Anders Puck Nielsen - ...

[@The_ZeroLine]

BTW, your interview on John Fink’s Silicon Curtain should be required viewing for political leaders / advisors + military decision makers.

[@sergiyrospysdiyenko6224]

haven't seen it yet, thx for pointing out!

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

I couldn't agree more.

[@idaho_girl]

I have it cued up to watch tomorrow morning. (It's 1 am here in the US at the moment.)

[@timmommens901]

✌😊👍

[@larsrons7937]

I agree, that's what I've already told a number of people. That conversation whould be a "must" to watch.

[@lethalfang]

Very much agree that Ukraine *should* stay on defensive, especially when Russia wants to stay offensive. In an attritional war of peers, the defensive side is more resource efficient at attriting your enemy's resources.

[@olmostgudinaf8100]

Who would have told just 2 years ago that the war between Russia and Ukraine was a war of peers? We all still believed then that Russia was a "superpower".

[@SanderBessels]

Yes that’s sensible, but they need just enough offence to keep Russia busy and spread thin over a big frontline. Especially the Kherson actions of crossing the river and having some small successes around Krynky is tactically a smart move.

[@CMMDRAsh]

The Fabian strategy

[@yudhiadhyatmikosiswono9082]

Kinda to late for that btw

[@vaskodimoski5690]

It won't work if Ukraine doesn't get lots of supplies from the west Russia has its own supplies plus its friends are supplying them weapons at large amounts and the size of army man power is also on Russia's side

[@earlthepearl3922]

I always look forward to you re-surfacing with a new video that gives new food for thought. Thank you!

[@maxdelaserna9540]

To me its again and again ridiculous that in this age we can have professional , factual and reasonable commentary of a war, by youtube a free portal. It almost cant get better. Thanks Sir

[@agffans5725]

Well, Anders Puck Nielsen is a Military analyst at the Defense Academy Centre for Maritime Operations in Denmark, and used to be Commanding Officer of the DIANA-class patrol boats for the Royal Danish Navy. He is also the top analyst in the Danish media regarding Ukraine, because Russia is his specialty, so this YT thing is just some spare time "fun" and in English to reach a wider audience abroad.

[@stockdale829]

@@agffans5725 it has been interesting to see the western commentators in the last week start to realize how wrong they have been about the war. They can't fully admit it, but they at least feel compelled to repeat realities that would've got you labeled a Russian bot earlier in the war.

[@garethmartin6522]

Well we might, but you certainly didn't get any of it here.

[@cl8804]

beats the propaganda for the mass mordorors of children he sh0t out last time

[@agffans5725]

@@cl8804 ... Anders is deliberately not wearing his uniform on YT, because he is not representing the Danish army and not paid to voice his personal opinions on YT, so if you think his personal opinions are some kind of propaganda, then you are dead wrong.

[@dennis2376]

Thank you and have a good week.

[@luminyam6145]

Excellent video, thank you.

[@DavidPetrovich108]

As always, another, well-thought-out and lucid video! Thank you!

[@DrTssha]

I'm so glad Perun interviewed you and recommended your channel. I appreciate the updates on this important conflict and always want to stay on top of news about this, so thanks for being an informed and educated source on this. War has definitely changed...with apologies to Ron Perlman. 😅But yeah, the lack of surprise in a war where neither side has an overwhelming advantage would make things rather static. As much as I feel for the individual soldiers roped into Putin's war, I hope they make little-to-no progress this season. I just hope a bunch of them get the chance to surrender and survive this war.

[@brendanblondeau8631]

Thanks Anders. Very much appreciated. We get to be updated without having to dive too deep into this madness. Keep up the good work 💪

[@creator7583]

so , u agree , good

[@brendanblondeau8631]

@@creator7583 agree with what ? What do you mean ?

[@BratBugarin]

Completely wrong starting premise. Putin nicely explained the goals of the Russian Special Military Operation, for us in this war, demilitarization and denazification. If we keep that in mind, then it is clear why the Russians are conducting offensive operations in this way, which seem to you like some big offensive. It's not an offensive. You will see the offensive when the Russians actually launch it, like the one in February 2022.

[@fionaryan631]

Was excited to see you on the silicone curtain episode and as always, a great listen. I hope your book will be picked up by an English publisher soon!

[@cl8804]

at least he's not spamming propaganda for the mass mordorors of children again

[@marionugnes2089]

Thank you for explaining. That was very helpful

[@stevenjohnston7809]

Thanks for the video update.

[@johannesg7997]

Tusend takk!

[@jesperscheel-bech998]

Insightful as always 👍

[@liviadix1433]

Yes the video and analysis was very helpful, Thank you.

[@mollirodhaet7224]

Always very good. Thank you.

[@namelastname9578]

Excellent analysis, as always!

[@GeneralGayJay]

A human life is not much worth in Russia 😢 Thoose poor boys, and their poor mothers. This is, kids, why we cannot let dictators rule.

[@2424baja]

Once again, thanks for you analysis

[@strikehold]

The "SUMMER OFFENSIVE" was a failure of the West (NATO) for not giving enough materiel support and the slow delivery pace of the materiel that was sent. Another factor is how timid NATO is about letting Ukraine us3 what they have in country and their lack of confidence of the Ukrainian military. When the Ukrainians tried to implement the NATO plan for the Summer Offensive (and there is no doubt it was a NATO plan) and were hit hard ,NATO (US) went into panic mode and did not approve any major moves from there on. There are tactics to deal with trenches that have direct and indirect fire support but it takes materiel and that is something the West is trying to do on the CHEAP!

[@ievgenmajor3301]

True words

[@mostlymessingabout]

Why spend more when you can spend less and get the same result ~ indefinite war

[@clarkeorchard2304]

💯👌🇬🇧 agreed. The west is a let down

[@alancx523]

I think its more about the West not wanting Putin to lose.

[@concernedaussie1330]

@@alancx523🤪😂

[@flykas1935]

Im still surprised why the western Countries are not delivering. European security is at big risk and politicians dont seem to see this.

[@hotdogmaster33]

European countries are not well known for their good strategic politics

[@misarthim6538]

They don't care. I suspect most of them grew tired of war and are looking how to force Ukraine to compromise.

[@JB-pu8ik]

"Nothing bad has happened to me yet, so nothing bad will ever happen to me."

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

I think that Ukraine is a victim of its own success in 2022, Kyiv, Sumi, Kharkiv and Kherson. This gave the politicians the mistaken idea that Ukraine had basically already won. And that hence massive amounts of military aid we're not that urgent. And definitely Russian hybrid warfare also plays a role there.

[@kgeri6089]

I think that it's because they are losing the information war. They either supply Ukraine, or win the elections. There are right-wingers slowing down the process everywhere, like the republicans in the US or Hungary in the EU, and they are getting more and more support. I think that people in western countries are tired of the war, even tho they don't actually commit that much, it's more like they are tricked to believe that they are spending a lot more on this than they actually do. So funding gets a lot less support, and parties opposing it get more support, gradually decreasing the pace of supplies.

[@karinlindblom2934]

Another interesting analyze. It's always worth the time to check your videos :)

[@Buffy_Summers_Sunnydale]

Love your discussion on The Silicone Curtain.

[@stevemccarley1687]

I wish I could like Ander's vids twice... always insightful.

[@Grissinen]

What about Black Sea fleet? If we look at the full year, this is probably the best change and is from UKR side...

[@TheSietch]

I liked the video a lot (good and to the point analysis) + but I also would like a quick run trough of the combat map. It’s good to have the over view, but without the specifics (on the ground) I have to use other sources to stay updated. A run through of the map (deep state map, etc) should only take a few minutes.

[@kosta2177]

I’m a Ukrainian and follow the war closely. And I always have to admit how accurate are your videos. Thank you

[@upsguppy520]

boy are you in for a rude awakening

[@butbutmybutt]

No, he wasn't. Russia has no missiles etc etc.... but somehow Russia is in offensive meanwhile Ukrainian offensive failed massively. Russia got more ground in Ukrainian offensive than Ukraine.

[@vanjamenadzer]

@@butbutmybutt but but RU army is full of inexperienced troops that have no ammo or weapons to fight and will flee at the first sight of UA troops rolling in for offensive and by november Crimea will be sieged. Oh, wait, that didn't happen. How peculiar.

[@jesan733]

@@upsguppy520 why? Because you trust Russian propagandists who have been saying for two years now that Russia will take Odessa next month?

[@toto-yf8tc]

Do you have the internet on the frontline? Great. Which part of the front do fight in?

[@danpetersen8868]

Thanks!

[@thepoet82]

I read somewhere that the reason the Russian economy has been doing so well is because of a series of preventative measures taken by the central bank. However, all the things they have done relies on being able to severely cut military spending by 2025. If this is true, it means Russia has about a year to achieve their goals before the economy starts tanking. Might explain why Russia is still doing offensives and transitioning into a Wartime Economy... sorry, a 'Special Military Operation'-time Economy. They are in an awful hurry.

[@dismantledbrain5910]

The poet is actually a fitting name for someone who is this creative with cope.

[@bewing77]

@@dismantledbrain5910one could point out that your screen name seems pretty fitting as well….

[@dismantledbrain5910]

@@bewing77 touché I thought I was commenting from my main account, named "bigbrain420"

[@arjan2777]

Nobody knows the real state of the Russian economy because they are using all kind of tricks to hide it and look better than it is but how much better?

[@johnfrench1239]

As ever a careful, well balanced and thoroughly excellent presentation- which is very much appreciated- thank you.

[@cl8804]

beats the propaganda for the mass mordorors of children he sh0t out last time

[@dpelpal]

I'm still laughing at putin and his "Kyiv in THREE DAYS!" nonsense😂

[@hmmm2564]

Nothing is well-balanced. But like all cowards , you guys seek lies instead of the truth

[@wallingnaga6563]

Worst propaganda

[@tiitsaul9036]

Thanks

[@solimaro]

Great update.

[@annemcleod8505]

Thanks, Anders. Always, helpful and informative!

[@cl8804]

beats the propaganda for the mass mordorors of children he sh0t out last time

[@dpelpal]

I'm still laughing at putin's "Kyiv in THREE DAYS!" 😂

[@wallingnaga6563]

@@dpelpal What’s wrong with you and this comment in all the replies?? Have you even researched the origin of this words you said ?? Three days to Kiev is a meme originated by western media which was originally published by some Russian journalist (their opinion) The Russian Military never said anything like that nor the Russian president. Don’t come and make yourself a mockery !! You know how MSM work in all countries they all talk big some Russian media journalists even talk about Nuking Ukraine but it doesn’t mean Putin is gonna nuke Ukraine… it’s how media outlets talk about ie Propagandas .

[@squireson]

Russian prisons have decreased their populations by 142,000 people in the past year. That _is_ the new mobilization. The fact that it wasn't announced doesn't mean anything..

[@macmcleod1188]

The Russian commanders are very wasteful of those soldiers. That is less than a 5-month supply current rates.

[@gaborszabo3110]

How do you know that? Is it really true? If it is, than it's unbelievable... these russians are really fkin crazy

[@jimmyc974]

Russian prison populations have decreased by 50% since 2008 , how does your single brain cell account for that then kid

[@eduardojunqueira8904]

Thank you so much

[@DuckNatic]

Thank you.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you Anders! Nourishingly sensible as always. It’s a good question how close Putin is to a certain recruitment limit, beyond which he will need to face new levels of evasion and resistance. I don’t know. But I think he is concerned about this, and knows the solution must be further politicisation. 🌻

[@levi_exiled8579]

I wasn't expecting to see you here. I love your videos. Keep it up man.

[@BratBugarin]

Completely wrong starting premise. Putin nicely explained the goals of the Russian Special Military Operation, for us in this war, demilitarization and denazification. If we keep that in mind, then it is clear why the Russians are conducting offensive operations in this way, which seem to you like some big offensive. It's not an offensive. You will see the offensive when the Russians actually launch it, like the one in February 2022.

[@jessepaulsen973]

holy shit it's vlad! I love your channel. For people unfamiliar with Vlad Vlexler, he provides the psychological and philosophical analysis at the same level of quality that Anders does military and strategic analysis. A wonderful and thoughtful channel to subscribe to.

[@hmmm2564]

So many lies that you both spew

[@dpelpal]

@@hmmm2564 Like when putin screamed "Kyiv in THREE DAYS!" 😂😂😂 Russian army is now the world's joke lol

[@eamonstack4139]

Excellent analysis - very informative. Thanks

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

I have a question. Is targeting logistics and supply lines considered offensive or defensive in military terms?

[@sparkyfromel]

neither , it's just military action and can take place at any phase of operation

[@cultugarvealgarve7380]

offensive

[@CrazyGaming-ig6qq]

It's an offensive action but it can be both part of an defensive strategy or an offensive strategy.

[@gags730]

Simple answer... Both. Logistics is always targeted.. It has to be knocked out at all costs to further either agenda (off/def) during war so it's more like a constant than a choice.

[@eugenmalatov5470]

so why were the experts so ridiculously wrong?

[@olgap.]

Wishful thinking, arrogance, ignorance, telling lies on purpose. I don't know which of those ist worst.

[@runethorsen8423]

"Experts" means academics being funded by ... by whom again?

[@timandsuzidickey9358]

Thanks. !!

[@rocko7711]

Spectacular analysis

[@beautifulsmall]

I never thought I would be cheering for OPEC to produce more oil.

[@cinghialemannaro76]

is it possible that they did a "covert" mobilization without a lot of noise?

[@olgap.]

Not covert at all. Mobilisation never ended, advertisement for joining the army was pretty noisy.

[@michaelnitake2534]

Excellent assessment

[@yycdk]

As always. Great Video Anders. Ps. there is the tie from ?

[@nomoss9600]

Thank you for the update

[@hemlock40]

The use of language is very subtle but it's significant. Russia might not have a formal "mobilization" but there is heavy "recruitment" efforts on a variety of fronts. Older men in remote areas won't be missed by St Petersburg or Moscow. Mobilization can happen under several other terms.

[@nicktecky55]

Yes, that term "volunteers" is a euphemism. The rural poor being offered salaries at many times what the domestic economy can pay. In the Far East there is already resentment at the loss of young men there. That may serve Putin a second way, by removing those of military age, he is countering the threat of a separatist movement gaining ground.

[@jimmyc974]

Oh dear another deluded child of the spoon-feeding media , the Russian mobilisations have been purely voluntary , not enforced , be even better if you educated yourself on facts instead of spouting through snot bubbles child!

[@zloymyx2486]

@@nicktecky55 Do you think that it’s better to just pluck anyone from the street, without examining whether they are even suitable for military service, and without offering them anything in return, as is now happening in Ukraine?

[@tromgytromgy4574]

Watching it in April 2024 and the analysis is 💯% correct!

[@randomcoyote8807]

I love your commentary, thanks for the update. I feel like there's something desperate about this Russian offensive; they're going all in on this big push and if Ukraine can hold, there may not be enough left for any follow-on actions.

[@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416]

Like the case of Bakhmut.

[@passenger8705]

Interesting video. I have a puestion , is it possibl that russian authorities not rotating soldiers , because if they do they will vote and they will not vote for Putin?

[@nattygsbord]

I think putin do not want men to return home from the war and tell people how horrible it was, and he do not want people to see men who lost an arm, or a leg, or an eye. And he do not want people to know about the incompetence of their military and how the officers waste their mens lives in meat assults, and how men are not given good equipment. All those things can cause anti-war protests, and such protests are things that putin fears most. Putin does not fear the election itself since it is rigged and fake, and all his political opponents have been thrown in jail (Navalny, Girkin) or killed (Prigozhin).

[@pedtrog6443]

A lot of Western politicians need to be shaken out of their apathy and gain a backbone. I think many of them are just hoping if they ignore reality for long enough the problem will go away

[@HDdeiu]

Thank you for your work!

[@StewartChaimson]

Very helpful for understanding the war, thank you.

[@boleslawzajaczkowski9392]

Poor Russians, barefoot and fighting with shovels in winter time.

[@brianrasmussen2956]

Top notch content as always. Thank you Anders, for your continued efforts!

[@dpelpal]

What isn't top notch is the russian army, which has now been shown to be the joke army of the world lol

[@allydea]

Does he still hold the position that Nord Stream was a Russian job? If he does, how can you possibly take his analysis seriously?

[@brianrasmussen2956]

@@allydea Well, you will not find a more qualified analysis of the war than from Anders. And as unbiased! Which is rare today. This is probably the closest to truth you will get on the internet.

[@allydea]

@@brianrasmussen2956 Strange, because I did find much better analysts on the internet.

[@brianrasmussen2956]

@@allydea couldn’t say. But I know Anders to be highly regarded as an analyst.

[@andershasselquist1904]

Did the mobilization really end? Or did it continue "under the radar"?

[@Benecki]

Perfect as always! Thank you for your content!

[@RealRockman900]

Thanks Anders for your insights! Always so happy when you have another upload. I feel like this conflict has some similarities to the Spanish Civl War in the 1930's, as it shows the modern capabilities of armies very well. Let's just hope it doesn't follow the same trail and that we won't be in a world war in 3-5 years.

[@emikke]

You always present the most sober perspective 🙏🏻

[@moobaz8675]

Excellent as always. Thank you.

[@clifforddicarlo9178]

Clear and cogent analysis of the Ukraine battlefield situation.

[@hansauning-hansen5865]

Tak!

[@barbaramassey3787]

Thank you. Clear analysis.

[@Burkhard_Ehnes]

certainly one of the lucky things in all this to have someone like you out in the public sphere to continuously give some sense to all. Thank you and danish state and army to let you do that.

[@wimdejong5399]

Very informative, Thanks Anders.

[@mephisto8101]

For the summer offensive of Ukraine, they did only receive about a third of the material they asked for. They calculated the bare minimum they would need to succeed and received only a fraction for it. Furthermore, they are going to need special equipment for another offensive: Lots of tanks and IFVs, lots of mine clearing equipment. And they need soldiers capable of maneuver warfare and combined arms. Currently, no western country is ramping up production of tanks and IFVs. The amount of fighter jets they are going to receive is minimal. And Ukraine has lost lots of experienced soldiers in the war and struggles to get their troops to a high level of combined arms warfare. To be fair, russia has the same problem. Russia is unable to attack in a combined arms manner as well. I am a bit surprised though, that russia can manage to not rotate troops. I would expect some point in their defesive line to fail, but I guess they can manage that right now.

[@ilya2226]

Or they do rotate troops since this man just made that up

[@dpelpal]

@@ilya2226 I think we can all agree russia is nothing more than a joke at this point lol. We in Sweden simply laugh at "bear' that is now subject of a jokes🤣

[@claus-not-santa]

@@dpelpalSweden soon will be taken over by Muslims! Enjoy your laughing........

[@ilya2226]

@@dpelpal You can laugh as much as you want in your swedestan ☪

[@ailinofaolin8897]

@dpelpal Sweden? Now it makes sense you comfort yourself laughing at Russia whilst your own country becomes part of the Islamic caliphate good luck with that.

[@Kavala76]

If I was surprised by Russia's ability to take the initiative with a front-wide offensive I would start to question my sources. Have I been told the truth? What is my source's record regarding wars? What are other sources saying? Do they make more sense? I'm reassured by the fact I was not at all surprised by the latest Russian offensive.

[@thedabblingwarlock]

Just curious as to why you didn't mention the possibility of it being a desperate gamble and explain why it wasn't that. I don't think that's what's happening, but I do think that is a possibility to consider, and was kinda surprised that you didn't bring it up and state why this wouldn't be the case.

[@cl8804]

beats the propaganda for the mass mordorors of children he sh0t out last time

[@lorenzcassidy3960]

I agree. The mobilised troops from the early stages of this war were sent to the front and left there without chance to be rotated out. Their battlefield experience was thus squandered and was not passed over to the new troops. The latters (volunteers, prisoners, migrants...) are mainly green troops with, for the most part, less than optimal motivation and they're going to be lost (KIA/WIA/MIA/prisoner...) in numbers pretty soon anyway. Also, the wisdom of starting offensive operations during the infamous "mud season" looks questionable at best. All this looks much like desperation, imo.

[@dichebach]

I think Commander Nielsen goes to great pains to be objective. Speculating on whether the Avdiivka Offensive is an "desperate gamble" or not is speculative, not objective. It looks like that might be what it is to me too, but I'm biased of course. Ukraine's 2024 Defense Budget was published recently and the total defense allocation is the equivalent of $49.4 bn. $1.2 bn of that is to be allocated strictly to "domestic drone production." I am not sure how much of an increase this "$1.2bn for drones" represents compared to their allocation to that form of weapon system in 2022. My understanding is that, the components for their domestic drone production are largely sourced either in Ukraine or from the global commercial market; as such, this represents a form of warfare which they can be confident is relatively secure from fickle Western domestic politics. I think that this is noteworthy because there seems to have been (and this is the impressionistic part) an increase in the extent to which Ukraine is focusing on the use of drones, based on the frequency of shockingly brutal videos being released by various Ukrainian organizations depicting successful drone attacks on Orc personnel. I believe they are leveraging drones as both a combat tool and an information warfare tool based on the numerous formations of the AFU which are routinely producing fairly sophisticated edits of drone kill videos which are pretty clearly meant to be suitable for Russian consumption. Many of these videos focus on the effectively completely defenseless nature of the Orc personnel being attacked, the gruesome nature of the wounds, and the generally hopeless nature of the Orc forces at present. Ukrainian leadership may be as skeptical as any of us that it is possible to cause a 1917 style mutiny in Putin's Orc Horde; but it would seem they intend to give it the college try nonetheless! Without detailed information on acquisition and operational costs for the drones used by the AFU, it is only possible to speculate; but it seems plausible that Ukraine will enjoy an order of magnitude more drones fielded in 2024, perhaps more than that. This fits with many of the points you made here, including the observations made by General Zaluzhnyi in his essay.

[@RexIlluminatus]

Another reason could be that the reported RU losses are smaller than reported.

[@mollirodhaet7224]

No.

[@marquisdemoo1792]

I think there is enough collateral evidence, such as stories from Russians about hospitals being swamped, and phone conversations with Russians talking about their losses, to be sure that Russian losses are very high. However, to what degree of confidence the exact figures reported are I do not know. I would suspect that the actual figures are probably within +2% and -20% of calculated losses.

[@nikolay4354]

Much smaller

[@marquisdemoo1792]

@@nikolay4354 You might want that to be true. However an analysis of excess deaths for 2022 by Meduza was of the same order as British and US Defence estimates. Their statistical analysis did not include soldiers fighting for Russia who were citizens of the annexed oblasts.

[@johnm7267]

Then why are they recruiting women?

[@ebb_]

There was no Russian winter offensive

[@kotpes]

Good stuff as always. Though one note - putin’s inner circle (such as gerasimov and shoigu) do not hold their positions due to their competence, but due to their loyalty. That means that the result of their work has no effect on whether or not they’ll keep their jobs.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

100% this.

[@black_triton9264]

Has hell frozen over? You actually said Russia did some things well.👏

[@djbrock65]

Brilliant analysis as ever Anders - thank you for your great work 👌🏼

[@IliyaOsnovikov]

@Anders Puck Nielsen, if you are surprised that Russians still have more soldiers than they should by your estimates, maybe you need to check and verify the numbers of Russian casualties you are using in your calculations. Col. Douglas Macgregor gives very different picture of losses on both sides.

[@worfoz]

Yes, checking and verifying the claims of McGreagor is needed but not very possible. My neighbor Johnny also claims a lot.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

MacGregor predicted Ukraine's loss in April 2022. He's just been pushing the date forward for over a year. Like a doomsday cult leader.

[@user-kq4hf8se5b]

22 months into a 3 day offensive.

[@jimmyc974]

Stated by General Milley February 2020 , you missed that fact kid!

[@SciFiDucky]

I get the sense from various reporting that Russian conscription never really stopped, there's just no official push.

[@olethomsen4931]

Is it really surprising that the Russians have the ressources to go on ther offensive? Without knowing for sure, I have the suspicion that we in the West continue to exaggerate Russian weaknesses. They have improved a lot since the first months of the invasion, and still somehow many Western sources expected them to crumble when Ukraine started its offensive earlier this year. So my question is how reliable the estimated loss figures are? If the figures for Russian losses are exaggerated, then their ability to go on the offensive is not that much of a surprise. Also, the Ukrainians are showing signs of exhaustion - low on firepower, personnel and Western support- so pressing on makes perfectly sense from the Russian perspective - unfortunately.

[@jesan733]

We do exaggerate Russian weaknesses, but the weaknesses are there and Russia is by no means invincible. We continue to not give Ukraine full support to win this war and eject the Russians. One example is the very slow pace in providing western air capabilities and e.g. ATACAMS, another is that we forbid Ukraine to use our ATACMS and similar to target Russian soil.

[@jirkazalabak1514]

The West has been pathologically over-confident ever since the Russian blitzkrieg towards Kyiv was stopped. During the Kharkiv counter-offensive, there were voices all over the place saying that the operation was the beginning of the end for Russia. When the weapons from the West started arriving in significant numbers, there was again a rush of optimism saying that the Russian would be unable to resist the power of Western weapons. The more realistic people saying that these weapons were not arriving in sufficient numbers, or that Ukraine has managed to resist Russian weapons of comparable quality with no issues, were dismissed as panicmongers. The reason for all of this confusion is very simple. Most people see the world for what they want it to be, not for what it is. They will ignore obvious evidence simply because it disagrees with their idea how of things *should* be. There is also an inherent bias towards optimism in our society. Being realistic is often mistaken for being negative, or even nihilistic. That being said, I don´t think that Ukraine sticking to defense is a bad thing. The battle of Avdivka has been one of the most one-sided bloodbaths so far in this war, and as long as the defenders don´t get surrounded, they can inflict some serious casualties while taking very few themselves.

[@toto-yf8tc]

​@@jesan733what is the result of the Storm shadows and where are they now? Have you heard about them the past 2 months? The ATACAMS?

[@benothing3350]

​@@jirkazalabak1514very true it seems a kind of mental laziness that wants magic to happen without much effort the same seems to be the basis of religions. And when our own neck is not under the line people seem to be ready to risk procrastination.

[@gags730]

@@jesan733 You need to read your own comment. Your comment makes no sense at all.

[@rphb5870]

It only came as a surprise for people that don't pay attention

[@toonverberg1313]

Very solid analysis, Anders. Your expert assessment looks spot on. Negative part of staying on the defensive is that it's getting even harder to get better support as the goal of driving the invaders out becomes a more far away prospect.

[@crhu319]

There are no "invaders". The border at this point is about right to represent Moscow vs Kyiv supporters. Except Odessa which is more pro Moscow.

[@BratBugarin]

Completely wrong starting premise. Putin nicely explained the goals of the Russian Special Military Operation, for us in this war, demilitarization and denazification. If we keep that in mind, then it is clear why the Russians are conducting offensive operations in this way, which seem to you like some big offensive. It's not an offensive. You will see the offensive when the Russians actually launch it, like the one in February 2022.

[@TheStephaneAdam]

@@crhu319 After a year of bombing I guarantee you Odessa ain't pro-Moskow anymore.

[@emildavidsen1404]

@@crhu319 you're upside down m8 - turn around and let your mouth talk a little instead.

[@dpelpal]

@@emildavidsen1404 Reminds of when putin screamed "Kyiv in three days!" or russia sayed "Moskva not sink!" 😅😅😅 We in Sweden laugh loudly at russia military, thd world's joke lol

[@sogerc1]

Good point, although I wouldn't be surprised if Putin was bluffing and they were already low on personnel. That's what they did last time too.

[@user-gf7kc5fc5m]

Thank you, Anders, for the great report. Wouldn't you count the expulsion of Russian forces from Kiev region, Kharkiev region, and Kherson region, offensive actions?

[@jimmyc974]

Ah you mean the withdrawals , with very limited losses but prefer the word expulsion because it suits your spoon-fed Ukraine are winning mentality!

[@johnwalsh4857]

The motives for this offensive in my opinion is Garasimov trying to fend off allegations of his criminal incompetence by other Russian generals, Garasimov has been criticized for being criminally incompetent and constantly micromanaging and meddling into the work of other generals, he is also considered to be a politicking ahole who likes to bully his subordonates and likes to fire any Russian officer who crosses him or threatens his position real or perceived whether they are competent or not. So the Avdiivka offensive is his baby and he wants to prove to the Russian leadership and other Russian generals that he is competent. and has the balls and knowhow to successful lead and plan a campign. I would compare Garasimov to the suckhead Soviet generals Buddyonny and Pavlov. he is that bad. and Garasimov is still in power due to his close friendship with Shoigu and Putin. Also what hurt Garasimov's prestige was his political fights with Prigozhin and Igor Girkin with the latter two having a strong following among Russian military bloggers, nationalists and Russian officers along with the dismissal of Major General Vladimir Selivyorstov commander of 106th airborne division, (who was later reinstated after loud calls from various poltiical factions) which was caused by his political fights and criticisms of General Garasimov.

[@toto-yf8tc]

The purpose of war is to... beat the crap of your opponent. Except in the mind of LGBT for Ukraine who think there are hidden psychological motive between mummy and daddy fight. What a shitty mind they must have

[@Peterski]

Does he stay sober long enough to do all those things tho? 😅

[@worfoz]

I think it's safe to say that he is one of Ukraine's most reliable ally. And he will remembered for ever thanks to Prigozhin's famous poem: "We have a 70% ammo shortage! Shoigu! Gerasimov, where the fuck is our ammunition?” But we also should not underestimate our ally Shoigu, both Russian heroes deserve a huge NATO medal.

[@dpelpal]

@@worfoz The entire russian military is nothing more than a clown show lol.

[@arturobianco848]

@@dpelpal That might be but they still have lots of pointy things and things that go boom. And quantity has a Quality all of its own.

[@Marsubleu]

Russia is also mobilizing soldiers without saying so. The new email system to send notices was for this reason

[@zloymyx2486]

The introduction of the electronic system has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine. This solution has been asking for a long time, instead of the archaic system of serving summonses on paper (by law, they are valid only if they are handed over personally against signature, or they are received by the employer with whom the person is officially employed). In Russia, military service is compulsory, and every year there is mobilization for military service. These young people do not participate in hostilities. Volunteers with whom a contract is concluded are recruited to participate in hostilities. And recruitment is going quite successfully (currently almost half a million people).

[@arjan2777]

@@zloymyx2486 Officially. If you are conscripted there is still a considerable chance that you end up in Ukraine one way or another against your will.

[@zloymyx2486]

@@arjan2777 After the scandal in March 2022, when the Ukrainians captured soldiers at the call of one of the rear units engaged in support, such a possibility is extremely insignificant. Because now it will cost the career of the officer who made such a mistake. A soldier cannot suddenly end up somewhere. He is assigned to a specific military unit, and its movement anywhere and participation in anything requires a written order.

[@zloymyx2486]

@@arjan2777 So that you understand, the people who were mobilized in 2022 had already previously completed military service under conscription. That is, they have a specific military specialty acquired during conscription service. They did not call up just anyone, but people with a sought-after military specialty (driver mechanics, riflemen, grenade launchers, artillerymen, etc.). And before they entered the territory of Ukraine in the combat zone, they were carefully prepared for this and, at the same time, those who were no longer suitable for health reasons were weeded out. As you understand, people don’t get better with age.

[@arjan2777]

@@zloymyx2486 I said officially. There were conscripts on board of the Moskva as well. The army is one of the most corrupt parts of Russian society and the corruption goes all the way to the top. If you believe these problems are solved you are incredibly naive. The army needs those men and there will be pressure to make them sign contracts from top down and the officers have enormous power over their men. The brutality inside the Russian army is legendary. Before you know it you have “signed” a contract out of “free will” and the rest is history. I am sure there are other ways to and maybe there will be some examples set but that doesn’t stop it. You show a childlike trust in the authorities. There is no rule of law in Russia.

[@tordsteiro9838]

I don't think Russia really have the resources. However, ukraine is suffering from severe supply disruptions, and its logical that Russia tries to exploit this opportunity. Furthermore, it's a good point about Zaluzhny's article. He asks for certain capabilities in order to break the positional order of battle, and my bet is that ukraine will stay mainly on the defensive until these capabilities are met. However, "defensive" may be a misnomer here. Ukriane is currently winning the battle of the black sea, and sabotage actions within Russia proper appears to be increasing. Those different types of offensive actions, however, offensive none the less.

[@jimmyc974]

You simpy do not have the capabiity to "think"

[@dichebach]

"Supply disruption?"

[@tordsteiro9838]

@dichebach in lack of better wording, yes. What else would you call it, when the EU delivers 6% of the promised ammunition, US Congress goes, well, stupid, and neighbouring Poland, Slovakia and Hungary has some truckers blocking the borders? I just found "supply disruptions" quite fitting.

[@treyd3433]

Thank you sir for such a succinct and logical analysis.

[@bigman23DOTS]

The defenders only have an advantage when they actually have ammunition ! Hard to fight with out artillery shells or even simple bullets

[@jesan733]

Much of the ammo is fpv drones and hand grenades dropped from drones these days. Very precise and lethal stuff. Spraying bullets and tossing artillery shells over the fence without really looking, and hitting with 1/1000 is becoming last year's war.

[@jantzfitzgerald6115]

​@@jesan733 Last years war ( artillery rounds have caused 70% of all the casualties in the war) and Russia is way outproducing Ukraine in drones. 😊

[@jesan733]

@@jantzfitzgerald6115 artillery rounds were more important early on. Now drones is the leading killer. How do you know Russia is outproducing Ukraine in drones, and why do you smile at the idea that the fascist aggressor is outperforming the defending democracy?

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@jesan733he smiles because he lacks morals. He’s an abject failure as a human being and his moral development has been arrested. He probably sees the war as a game, and he’s trash talking to “support his team”. I don’t want to speculate on what sort of trauma or terrible experience has led him to this wretched existence, but clearly it was ugly. That doesn’t excuse him, like everyone else he is a moral agent, and he is choosing immorality.

[@GordianThoughts]

Simply because Russia is in full wartime production

[@zaqsdk]

I said a long time ago "Never underestimate Russia's ability and will to just throw human lives at the problem". .... Yet I feel I underestimated it myself! I didn't know HOW right I was.

[@johnm7267]

It is Ukraine that is throwing lives at the problem, they are now throwing women’s lives at the problem. Don’t you think before you speak?

[@mausolos8]

Clear, concise, unbiased analysis. TY.

[@MattPerdeck]

Re. the reason for the Russian offensive to take Avdiivka, could it be that it is indeed simply "active defense"? Looking at a map of Ukrainian railway lines, to send trains from Russia to Crimea via the land bridge (that is, avoiding the Kerch bridge), they have to go through Donetsk city. And Avdiivka is only a few km away from Donetsk. I guess it makes sense for the Russians to try to push the Ukrainians away from such an import supply line.

[@foseninfo8954]

I believe active defense does not require ground to be taken, so maybe call it a small offensive? I agree avdiivka threathens donetsk. Just see where donetsk airport is! Remember russia is already building an extra southern rail to avoid the kerch bridge. Also people still do not now wether to call russias last winter offensive an offensive! Russia itself never called it as such.

[@Vitamin_71]

All adequate and understanding people have long known that Russia cannot be defeated, especially Ukraine, which walks around the world with an outstretched hand in the face of the cocaine clown Zelensky. Even this bald propagandist Anders can no longer fool people about the “victories” of Ukraine. NATO+USA really screwed themselves up in the war with Russia.

[@andzzz2]

I think you are right about the importance of improving logistics in the land bridge. That was the objective of the Ukrainian offensive and the Russians are very sensitive to the propspect of Crimea being cut off. That said, I don't think that is why they are attacking Avdiivka. It is hugely symbolic for both sides. It has been fought over since 2014, is hugely fortified and has been where Donetsk has been shelled from. For the Russians, conquering Avdiivka would be a massive morale boost. They also hope they can get the Ukrainians to waste resources defending a partially encircled city with threatened supply lines like in Bakhmut. If nothing else it forces the Ukrainians to stop shelling Donetsk to conserve ammunition.

[@michaelstanley5215]

@@foseninfo8954 An active defense could very well require ground to be taken, in this case it would be a buffer zone to protect the railway line. Not taking ground would be more of a passive defense.

[@CesarFerraro2]

@@foseninfo8954 Russia doesn't call the war it started in Ukraine a war, so I'm pretty sure what Russia calls its operations is completely irrelevant, at least to observers outside of Russia trying to understand what's going on. Both offensives were offensive, that is, they were Russian attacks to take more land. The problem with the idea that the Russians are just trying to protect supplies for Crimea is that this is an argument you can make for the entire territory of Ukraine. Obviously the more territory Russia captures from Ukraine, the better Russia's position in the Donbas and Crimea is, for the simple reason that Ukraine would have to take back more and more territory before reaching the Donbas and Crimea. Also, Russia explicitly says that they want all of Donbas, and there is no reason to doubt this, given that they have continued to attack to take the rest of Donbas.

[@diogorodrigues747]

I'm surprised to see this quantity of trolls here in Anders' channel. Olgino is clearly working very hard these days...

[@Begbie9000]

How it can be a surprise that Russia has capabilities to launch this offensive is the only thing surprising here.... The Russia military complex is in full swing and all military capabilities grow each day this conflict goes on.... Russia produces at war time decree at much lower cost and scale than we can supply Ukraine at for years to come.... we are now the cause a total modernisation and battle trained Russian combined armed forces are taking place...

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

What is a full swing of an institution based on grifting? Meanwhile in the real world, Russian servicemen are discussing on telegram how bad North Korean ammo is.

[@stvrob6320]

what would become of the war if both sides decide to stay on the defensive?

[@TheBozodclown]

Thanks for keeping on Ukraine and not chasing the Gaza/Israel story

[@ropeburnsrussell]

Sadly the Russian army seems more resilient than we had hoped. The US needs to approve more funding .

[@dr.jonas.skeppstedt]

to create more ukrainian orphans? or remain neutral and let families rejoice?

[@ropeburnsrussell]

@@dr.jonas.skeppstedt to regain the Ukrainian children that Russia has kidnapped. To oppose and defeat this unprovoked aggression. Why would you support a maniac like putin?

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

​@@dr.jonas.skeppstedt Who's going to rejoice? Families are separated due to Russia.

[@jesan733]

@@dr.jonas.skeppstedt families won't rejoice by occupation and the follow-up Russian killings, rapes and torture.

[@geitemans]

Mange tak! So well said and a great analysis

[@aleekamui]

Putin predicted the US would stop funding to Ukraine. What a strategic genius ✌️

[@alexkonstantinou9605]

We’re you get your information?

[@sandrajohnnewmanwarnock2232]

Thanks for the analysis. I think you have it spot on with one exception. You say the Russians must be happy with the manpower levels for them to continue with their offensive. I believe it could be that they don’t have the choice - you said earlier in the video that they had no choice but to take more ground, so the offensive must continue regardless of the manpower levels. Most probably Putin and his team in Moscow are not aware of the true level of losses as these are not correctly reported and the bodies of the fallen are not returned to Russia - they are left to rot on the battlefield - meaning Moscow probably believes many of them are still available to fight! No doubt the Generals are too afraid to report the truth and if Moscow sees any western analysis of their losses it will be disregarded as western propaganda!

[@zloymyx2486]

Do you think that people in Russia still write letters to each other on birch bark sheets and stone tablets? The information would have spread in two days maximum, even to the most remote corners. In Russia, almost half a million volunteers have been recruited on a contract basis, and in Ukraine, people are literally kidnapped on the streets, sent straight to the front line. Ukrainian Telegram channels are chock-full of such videos. And also a video of countless huge military cemeteries with fresh graves. This gives a very clear idea of ​​the true state of affairs.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

@@zloymyx2486😂😂😂

[@markanderson3870]

As it stands I totally agree that Ukraine will hold tight and Russia will try to make gains. But history if full of one side or the other making major mistakes and miscalculations, and I think those are Russia's to make and Ukrainians could well capitalize on those. But we'll see how things unfold!