Russia Ukraine - What comes next after the fall of Avdiivka?

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Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated:
en.zona.media/...
Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe:
www.osw.waw.pl....
List of Ukrainian oblasts and territories by population:
en.wikipedia.o...
Deep State Map: deepstatemap.l...
Map of a truncated Ukraine - with a Russian-aligned government installed in Kiev and the southern and eastern regions acceded to Russia - would be uninteresting to the Western alliance in that it would possess no strategic military advantage. The western regions could be monitored by Hungary and Poland as part of a security agreement:
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The Russians will demand in negotiations the regions surrounding the cities of Kherson, Nikolaev, Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Odessa, Izmail, Transnistria, Kiev; the regions east of Kiev, and anywhere else there is a near 50 percent self-identifying Russian population. They will leave the western (predominantly Ukrainian) provinces to security forces from Poland and Hungary. These are the former Polish regions of Lviv and Ivanovo-Frankivsk; and the Hungarian Transcarpathian region of Mukacheve and Uzhgorod. Russia would thereby avoid an occupation problem, which would be the Russian version of trying to swallow a porcupine.
However, the West and the Ukrainians will decline Russia’s offer. Then the war will continue until it becomes unreasonable to continue, or until Russia has taken what it wants anyway. At that point, Ukraine will auto-revert to the pre-2014 situation, with Ukraine being run by a pro-Russian government and tied to the Russian economy, but with the southern and eastern parts of historic “New Russia” ceded to the Russian Federation.