S&P 500 Downside Target 4800?!

05.23.24: Final Bar host David Keller, CMT welcomes Jeff Huge, CMT of JWH Investment Partners. David reflects on NVDA's gap higher, quick deterioration in market breadth indicators, and bearish candle patterns for ON and HOOD. Jeff shares his downside target for the S&P 500 and updates his prescient bullish call on gold from year-end 2023.
Dave's chart of % of SPX stocks above the 50-day MA: schrts.co/MTNbABIu
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00:00 - Intro
01:06 - Market Recap
08:49 - S&P 500 Index ($SPX), NYSE McClellan Oscillator, XLY:XLP
14:54 - NVIDIA (NVDA), VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
16:04 - ON Semiconductor (ON), Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
18:43 - Jeff Huge, CMT
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Dave's chart of % of SPX stocks above the 50-day MA: schrts.co/MTNbABIu 👀 See what better financial charting can do for you! Start your FREE 1-month trial today at stockcharts.com 👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP ✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: tinyurl.com/wvet7qj

[@Options-zj1vm]

Motley Fool keeps pushing Pfizer as the next NVDA. They are talking about the merging of AI and diagnostics for the next big thing. Would you please review this for us? What you see on their charts and financials? Would you be buying it now for your portfolio?

[@saiyedsallahuddin1040]

Jeff. My pleasure to listen to you.

[@titusrider7948]

I too had a dialogue with the S & P today, it wasn't pretty. 😅😅

[@DKellerCMT]

hahaha yep D

[@user-bi6kx8ir5g]

Thanks for having Jeff Huge on. While Elliott wave is not my favorite "technical" trading tool I appreciate his overall approach. It sure is helpful to have different opinions. In Bear markets you can usually always see five waves down after the fact. The problem with Elliott is that if you use it to trade from it is frustrating. However, after the waves are complete it looks real easy but when you are in the waves you can't know where you actually are, in my opinion.

[@jasonclement6305]

I like it from a big directional move followed by a week squigly countermove standpoint.. but beyond the basic zigzag and flat corrections I get lost...

[@DKellerCMT]

Great for understanding the behavioral conditions around different market cycles IMO D

[@B_M]

Jeff Huge - Thank you for bringing in this much needed perspective.

[@DKellerCMT]

I love guests like Jeff that make me think!! D

[@mikem2492]

Thank You

[@jasonclement6305]

Calling tops is hard. I appreciate Jeff.

[@DKellerCMT]

You are not kidding. D

[@joshuaklith7225]

Great show

[@DKellerCMT]

Appreciate that! D

[@mlangbert]

Great video.

[@DKellerCMT]

Thank you so much! D

[@tradingpoker1324]

Love the show, my small recommendation is no poll question, or at least not to start the show. I prefer to see market recap at beginning. But I understand I'm just one opinion of many viewers.

[@DKellerCMT]

Appreciate that feedback! D

[@felixiavarone4692]

finally a market bear - i think jeff huge is your only one?

[@DKellerCMT]

The world needs more bears! D

[@sridharv]

Thank you for another good show. A question for the mailbag, off the back of the discussion with Mike Singleton - Buying the index above the 200DMA and avoiding it below the 200DMA has resulted in the best risk/reward skew, but does the same apply to individual stocks as well? How would you approach trading a name which, for example, has bounced convincingly off a strong horizontal support level from anywhere between a few months to a couple of years back, or has had a clear break of a multi-month downtrend line, but is still below the 200DMA? Would such a name still be an avoid until it convincingly breaks above the 200DMA? Does the slope of the 200DMA itself matter i.e. would you wait for the 200DMA to also curve upwards before putting on any sort of position? I know that part of the answer depends on an individual's risk tolerance, but some more colour on the strategies used to manage positions relative to the 200 DMA line will be great to hear!

[@DKellerCMT]

Great question and added to the list!! D

[@savalaimanohar2353]

Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder!! The same market, same data but very different interpretations! By a doyen like Larry Williams a few days ago called this Bull phase to remain intact till 2025. A reputable TA like Jeff Huge calls for 4800. This is what makes market interesting!

[@DKellerCMT]

I so value hearing different takes like this. So glad you do as well! D

[@JustPhil-yw6bt]

I still don't quite understand why silver shot up 2 weeks ago- but I'm glad it did!

[@josevilla7829]

Could we go lower tomorrow on the SPX

[@DKellerCMT]

Yes. We could also go higher. :) D

[@iamric23]

The reason that the price volume was lower yesterday for nvidia was due the the price of the stock. If you take a look at the other times that nvidia advanced, you'll notice the price was much lower and the volumes were powerful.

[@DKellerCMT]

Not sure I can agree with you there! In the age of fractional shares, high stock prices not much of a deterrent. D

[@pezzodipunto2239]

One can only call the top so many times before it becomes pointless repetition at some point, we can debate what that point is, I suppose. Either way calling it, again and again (how many times now?) until it actually rolls over is not useful, I can do that too, sans elliot waves.

[@tanleproe]

Apple's support is 182. Resistance is 200. GL

[@DKellerCMT]

AAPL remains happily rangebound! D

[@rockitman7909]

missing bitcoin which is up 61% for the year as of this moment :)

[@grognard]

Jeff to the rescue.

[@JISBR2g1]

All subjective...

[@DKellerCMT]

Hope it made you think a bit!! D

[@mlangbert]

I know you said that it's too early for VXX, but Mr. H convinced me to wet my beak.

[@HouseofTheRisingFunk]

4850

[@justindog]

4500

[@EdED-gg6fr]

No, 2000!, and it will see on that way down 4800 of course😉....A long way to go yes, but not in 5 days.... So be patient🤓...The chart has spoken🤔

[@dorothymoller566]

I’m a little surprised that none of your discussion of gold includes data about how much of that run higher has been driven by Chinese - and to a lesser extent, Indian purchasers. There are numerous articles about heavy gold purchases by Chinese buyers - as a hedge against instability in their own economy. Clearly there is a doomsayer element of domestic purchasers who are flocking to gold and bitcoin driven by their ideas about fiat currencies and debt. But, I don’t think that’s the whole story.

[@DKellerCMT]

We don't dig much into the fundamental drivers but I don't disagree with some of your comments here D

[@user-hi9sm3wz2t]

one day and we get Jeff out of his cave.......oh boy.

[@titusrider7948]

So I'm guessing we were a little late to the party and the culprit is now guilty rather than innocent ? 😅😅😅

[@DKellerCMT]

TBD!! :) D

[@QuiLe-qw5jb]

4800??? 🤣🤣🤣

[@chipshiner2371]

I think that 4800 is possible. I think that 4500 is possible and I also think that 5600 is possible by the end of the year. If you have the idea that you know where the market will be then the market hasn't taught you the lessons that you will inevitably learn. But today was a special day. Great earnings new from NVDA, one of 3 stocks that provided 30% of the gains year to date. And the market gapped and crapped. Markets create a top, local or otherwise, on good news. I am interested to see what comes next.

[@timpc07]

Dave, please go back and look at Jeff's previous bearish calls: 11 months ago "Ticking Timebomb" 9 months ago "S&P target below Oct 2022 lows" (your show I believe) 5 months ago "Prepare for the bear" 4 months ago "Epic plunge" I have no respect for someone who is a perma bear with no track record. Perhaps this time he will be right but contrast Jeff with your other guest Chris Ciavacco who I have much respect for. You can do better Dave!!

[@DKellerCMT]

Appreciate the feedback and will strive to bring different perspectives as much as we can! D