Mindscape 143 | Julia Galef on Openness, Bias, and Rationality

[@ExistentialistDasein]

Julia Galef is great. Thank you for having her on the show:)!

[@Im-just-Stardust]

I imagine Professor Caroll with Ariel sleeping on his knees the whole conversation, and it makes me feel good. Thank you professor for making monday amazing.

[@themagicpancakes]

Julia is amazing. This interview was amazing. Thank you!

[@seionne85]

Thanks in advance for giving me something to think about while I drive! Love your work Sean, excited to hear your ideas Julia!

[@chewyjello1]

WOW. I enjoyed this a lot more than I thought I would! The two of them should write a book together...it would be amazing.

[@HarryNicNicholas]

all his women guests have been brilliant, it's encouraging to see so many women making it onto these sorts of programs.

[@Emanresu56]

I always go back to Sean Carroll's podcast and similar podcasts when I'm feeling down. Music helps too of course.

[@ezbody]

The problem of achieving rationality is much more complex than simply learning how to be rational. Indoctrination; tribalism; cult(ish) environment; dysfunctional family; no developed habit of habitual cleaninness, organization and discipline; undetected, undiagnosed, ignored physical, emotional, psychiatric and psychological health issues; lack of proper education; lack of communication skills; lack of emotional intelligence; lack of clearly defined rules for rational thinking and thought organization (i.e. disorganized, chaotic thought process); etc. Edit: The main reason that I am even aware of it is because most of the factors listed above either have been, or still are an issue in my own life. :)

[@idhaiwandari7573]

Agreed!

[@relaxbro5605]

Yes, unfortunately, the topics discussed are much more complex than the way in which they are addressed in her ideas.

[@naturallaw1733]

@@relaxbro5605 I learned a lot from her on my way to becoming a Rationalist so..... 🧐

[@relaxbro5605]

@@naturallaw1733 whatever that means but if it makes you happy... you do you. I'm happy for you.

[@naturallaw1733]

@@relaxbro5605 "whatever that means" ? thanks I guess..😕

[@robertglass5678]

Sean interviewed Julia because when you do a KZbin search for Bayesian Statistics, hers is one of the first to come up.

[@limweixuan7479]

Amazing! I just discover her then now it comes

[@HarryNicNicholas]

27:00 speaking as a psychopath i think this is true, being intelligent means you can be good at arguing (and persuading people) of your point of view, even if you know it has, er, flaws.

[@ezbody]

With the amount of widespread irrational thinking and beliefs present in humanity, I am surprised that we even got to where we are at today.

[@naturallaw1733]

hear! hear! 🤷

[@naturallaw1733]

I Love hearing Julia spread this knowledge. 🤝

[@seth4766]

episode number 143 is very appropriate cos Julia I LOVE YOU

[@DjSapsan]

I discovered Julia recently and Sean instantly made Mindscape with her. Therefore god!

[@seionne85]

This is the most rational thinking I have ever heard!

[@stephencolbertcheese7354]

i luv sean & julia sooooo much...get them talking 2gether & im in heaven (atheist heaven that is) (& sorry real stephen colbert)

[@mikeg9b]

5:20 "How do you know that everyone's always better off being rational?" Answer: Because "being rational" is, by definition, making choices that maximize your well-being? www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rational-choice-theory.asp

[@deeptochatterjee532]

In the podcast, Julia makes a distinction between epistemic rationality, which is how she in the most part was discussing rationality (it's like skepticism and Bayesian reasoning), and instrumental rationality, which is acting to optimize some kind of metric. The question she is asking is "How do you know that everyone's better off acting according to epistemic rationality?". If she were referring to instrumental rationality, then the answer would be yes by definition, as you pointed out

[@mikeg9b]

@@deeptochatterjee532 Thanks. I only listened to about 6 minutes of this podcast.

[@edansw]

I didn't like the use of politics as an example. Politics are beliefs on unknown future, which no evidence is really sufficient to detriment one side to be more rational. On the other hand, our brain optimizing survival and re-production, which are likely to affect rational thinking. Studying these conflicts and methods to overcome our primitive needs is very interesting.

[@ProfessorBeautiful]

Just to clarify the terms... Bayes Rule is a rule, Bayes Theorem is a theorem. The evidence can point to X over Y (Bayes theorem), while the optimal decision could be the reverse because it also weighs in the loss function, which may say the consequence of being wrong is much much worse if Y is true (Bayes rule). This distinction occurs a lot in medical decision making. Full disclosure; Keep in mind that people much smarter than me conflate the two.

[@ryrez4478]

awesome episode!

[@myothersoul1953]

26:00 What the graph of despair shows is people over generalize from the results of surveys and questionnaires. The replication crisis in the social sciences is result of that propensity. The study did have a large number of participants but they were all active in a public opinion research firm respondents pool. And even if the sample from that pool was chosen to match the demographics of the larger population it may not have accurately represented that population. We should neither discount the result or read much into it until it has been replicated with other means of sampling the population.

[@GreenPatches]

Something to listen to with lunch, thanks!

[@naturallaw1733]

Enjoyy!🤗

[@sasstemir]

This was so good, thank you

[@Tom-sx4tw]

Love topics about rationality!

[@Finkledorfed]

Thanks for being a great host sean. She was hard to listen to until the last quarter of the podcast.

[@yurona5155]

Thanks for a delightful conversation (and keeping it light and exploratory where other self-described 'rationalists' might have taken the road to improvisational evopsych halfwittery ;)). On the choice of metaphors: Although "scout vs. soldier" probably is most suited to the US context, Julia's "judge vs. lawyer" alternative actually works really well in countries with more Roman law-type legal systems (e.g. most of continental Europe) where discovery is almost entirely "judge-driven". P.S.This may be my soldier mindset talking, but an idealist's "graph of despair" is a materialist's "graph of duh" (it's not necessarily comforting, i know). ;)

[@LLlap]

They mention a person that understood that his purest good intentions actually caused harm and then go on to claim that it`s good to help and encourage young kids actually CHANGE THE WORLD. Clearly defunding the police will improve police performance. Now go and spread the word, my beautiful children!

[@tjthreadgood818]

I agree, and keep in mind that GENETIC mutations are random, and so nearly always either neutral or deleterious. On the other hand, the beliefs of rational agents (e.g. humans) differ from genes in that rational agents have the potential to model potential changes, however imperfectly, and reject many counterproductive ideas. A selfish gene is always best served by complete dedication to conservation of its genetic code. Changes in a rational agent’s beliefs can be vetted before being adopted in a way that mutations can not be [even temporarily setting aside the fact that a gene is by definition it’s code, and so a mutation is effectively death for a gene]. Therefore It’s appropriate for [even selfish] rational agents to significantly relax the genetic imperative to deny change as much as possible. In a rational agent appropriate resistance to change is a balance between accepting productive change and rejecting counterproductive change, while leaning just a bit towards conservation because of the imperfect nature of the vetting process.

[@alexmijo]

thanks for introducing me to Julia Galef

[@nickhall1632]

What I like is that there is no direct definition of rationality other than updating one's view in light of new evidence. That is a fair definition but a lot of their argument for the use of rationality comes from the moral praiseworthiness of using rationality. This moral praiseworthiness comes from an intuition about what is morally good and also about what is morally good about the use of rationality. Neither of which can be confirmed in any objective sense. Rationality will not lead you to the Truth and there is no way to ensure that your rationality doesn't simply just track your subjective set of beliefs. We can try to not be motivated nor hold cognitive biases but that requires a surprising amount of control over ourselves. This is why talks about rationality really only excite those who believe rationality is praiseworthy and it is likely that most of those who are champions of rationality use it to abuse others.

[@naturallaw1733]

I'm a Rationalist and all it means to me is having a more Broader and Nuanced view of the World. and to come to more Reasonable views, beliefs based on that more comprehensive understanding and perspective. to think this way, is essentially the Opposite of Ideological thinking. and the World is really Stuck on different Ideologies so that is why it's so difficult for a lot of people to think Rationally.

[@Daniel-ih4zh]

Waiting for this :)

[@woody7652]

Thanks, Sean!

[@dmarsub]

11:00 thank you sean for calling that out. To be clear i really value her work. I am sure she *hears* a lot of people who hold such opinions, but 5 minutes ago she talked about people misrepresenting and misunderstanding her position. Even though she has a larger body of work out there and she just sees shortform tweets she can interpret. This seems like a classic unintentional strawman. Of course there are some people who hold more subtle positions, but the extreme she portrays seems a bit out of place.

[@snackentity5709]

I disagree. Sean has a serious blind spot and tendency to ignore the anti-science dogma coming from the woke left. Sean's a smart guy, but he's in a hard-science ( and left-leaning) academic bubble and simply is not exposed to what is happening on the woke-left front. It's ironic that he exposes his own information bubble in this podcast in attempt to bring to light the hypothetical bubble of Julia, who is much more sensitive to the concept of information bubbles. Julia also brought up "Q-anon" in the same vein - no push back from Sean there. How prevalent is Q-anon in the broader society? More prevalent than the anti-science woke left? It certainly isn't supported by mainstream media and social media like the woke left stuff is. But this just goes to show you, it doesn't matter how smart you are, if you're not exposed to information, your intelligence can't operate on/filter/sift through it. Both the right and left media do this - prop up the extremes of the opposite side, and omit the extremes of their own side. You'll have intelligent right-leaning people that have no idea that Q-anon even exists.

[@andrear.berndt9504]

Thank you for the new episode!

[@life42theuniverse]

Scout and soldier mindset made me contemplate the impacts of ancient Greeks, Romans, Sparta and Alexander the Great.

[@eugen10min]

i cant afford to be a patreon, but i wonder could it be that all we se it;s a transformation, from the compressed space of a black hole to our free light rooming universe?

[@calvingrondahl1011]

In the movie Dancings with Wolves... the Scout mindset.

[@JustOneAsbesto]

But noted philosopher James T. Kirk taught us that pure logic wasn't enough!

[@charliesteiner2334]

I can't find it, but I'm reminded of the short story where Spock says "Captain, we must take evasive maneuvers to avoid the black hole - if we go much closer we only have a 2.3% chance of survival." Kirk replies "Damn the probabilities, we've always pulled through before!" "Yes, captain, I have also noticed that we tend to succeed in surprising ways, especially when the stakes are high. I have attempted to model this effect, and have validated the correction term to our success rates by making advance predictions for our last 3 surface missions." "Even the..." "Even that one, yes. So when I say 2.3%, this is after taking our ability to defy the odds into account - without it, the chance would be several orders of magnitude smaller." "And you're so confident, Spock, that you've captured our grit and determination in your equations? That we won't pull through in the nick of time if we buzz right by the black hole?" "Yes, captain." "Well damn. Guess we'll go around then."

[@nibblrrr7124]

@@charliesteiner2334 Julia Galef herself mentions that exact example (at least the premise) in her "Straw Vulcan" talk. ;)

[@wynonahshawamd2271]

Do the right thing. Easy peasy lemon squeezy!

[@_ARCATEC_]

A measure of rationalisation of values as a functional combinator @ P6 D4 . Agency of Mind .

[@grahamhenry9368]

The world needs more rationalists

[@aresmars2003]

I see a "scout mindset" is useful when dealing with critics, to help you isolate your own biases and self-deceptions. That is instinct says take a "soldier mindset" when listening to a critic, so we need a way to avoid falling into a state that prevents you from really hearing what you don't want to hear. Well, that's why we talk of "constructive criticism" and you can tell the difference is when someone can show where they agree and disagree.

[@peteryyz43]

I like to imagine that in a parallel universe, I'm married to Julia.

[@jesperburns]

8:30 Many political beliefs have nothing to do with evidence or scientific facts. Just because you disagree doesn't mean they're wrong. Note: I dislike Giuliani and his beliefs.

[@jonathanhenderson9422]

Many political "beliefs" are about subjective values, not objective truth; but Giuliani was literally the guy spearheading the "election fraud" campaign that was concocted without any evidence. So, yeah, his quote about changing one's mind with evidence is absolutely hypocritical as his actions were the epitome of irrationality.

[@jesperburns]

@@jonathanhenderson9422 There was some small scale (or single instances of) election fraud, and no valid investigation has ever been done. There was *probably* no large scale election fraud and Trump wouldn't have won anyway.

[@jonathanhenderson9422]

@@jesperburns The claim wasn't about "small scale" election fraud, but election fraud widespread and systemic enough to change the outcome of the election: there was never any evidence of THAT. Every single study that's ever been done on the subject says the same thing: election fraud (even isolated cases) is extremely rare. It's still deeply irrational to throw out all of those past studies and insist that this time it must've been different based on nothing.

[@relaxbro5605]

I really like and respect her but she hasn't put enough thought into many crucial things. One of the most important questions you must reflect on is for example the question about the definition of rationality. She, it seems, has not put tons of thought on this in advance. If she wants to make a difference, she needs to put more thought into this. Otherwise she's risking to be just another person following a career by following her agenda. I think she's great but she needs to be better prepared and put more thought in the philosophical fundamentals of what she's talking about.

[@aresmars2003]

I think "scout mindset" can include "popularity" (rumor?) as a factor in evaluation. If lots of people believe something exists, like religions, then they are more worthy for attention, EVEN if they are not physical reality, they are "psychic reality" of the world you're trying to understand.

[@b_tang]

It's interesting that this expert on bias and rationality t several points demonstrated bias and faulty reasoning. I expected a different conversation in this podcast. Sean is clearly a more clear and unbiased thinker which made her deficits stand out to me.

[@eklim2034]

Many of us are the products of our parents' irrationality. Irrationality keeps the evolution ball rolling.

[@aresmars2003]

Soldier mindset: Just ask "Is this the hill you want to die on?" George Bernard Shaw: “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

[@aresmars2003]

Ha! 1:19:40!

[@aresmars2003]

Current debate, people who are CERTAIN that wearing masks outdoors serve the greater good, even if they have almost no practical impact in reducing covid spread. and trying to socially shame people who disagree and creates unnecessary opponents who otherwise completely agree caution is warranted.

[@dmtgallardo]

im just a big simp

[@wynonahshawamd2271]

Numero Uno! WE♥️💎🍑🏹

[@eljeorgo]

Not bad.

[@walkingcarpet420]

I asked my meteorology professor what he thought the effect of Earth's weakening magnetosphere (10-15% weaker now than 150 years ago) had on weather / climate, and he said he hadn't heard about that and proclaimed that plant food in the atmosphere measured in parts per million was the only factor that mattered. Lost a lot of faith in the "experts" and "scientific consensus" regarding climate after that.

[@tech-utuber2219]

How effective is it to be advising people to consider to be more rational while ignoring the highly level of immaturity among many grown adults? Many adult Americans exhibit limited reasoning and poor emotional regulation when challenged, suggesting that we are seeing strong symptoms of unhealthy families for many children. Also, it is not uncommon to people who seem to posses cognitive skills while exhibiting social immaturity and dysfunctional discourse. It's alarming how many Americans look like adults but are actually developmentally stunted, reactive children, who often resort to defensive, simplistic reasoning, and often leads to disagreements being taken as personal affronts. She is bright, motivated, and has a good cognitive skill set however, I would have advised her to delve deeply into what constitutes functioning maturity in adults and get at least 10 more years experience under her belt before tackling a subject like this as her approach seems naive to me, although I can only comment on what I heard today, since I am not familiar with her book. I would speculate that she is not familiar with the stages of mental development which fosters much of what she is advocating, the important point being that it unfolds in a naturally emergent manner, when children are raised by healthy, functioning adults. It seems quite common for physics and science people to have little to no understanding (a kind of silo affect?) of what underpins what was discussed in this podcast. It's a shame because since the mid 90's, neuro-imaging technology has led to vast improvements in many aspects of mind and psychological research topics.

[@thiagodemelo608]

If you use 0.75 the playback speed, you can undesrtand.