SECRETS Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: LIQUIDITY is Coming!

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3U1GFAD. It's time for a liquidity masterclass with Michael Howell. Raoul's Everything Code thesis suggests that liquidity is the biggest driver of asset prices across both macro and crypto. Today for all viewers, he welcomes the industry's foremost liquidity expert Michael Howell, founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, where global money flows are headed, how this impacts markets, and whether it could push us into the next "Banana Zone." Recorded on June 24, 2024.
This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world's largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana's Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there - this is the one event you can't miss this year.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore
00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel
01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman"
01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis
02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role
03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity
03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity
05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept
07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics
10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s
12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance
15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets
17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics
18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt
21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises
23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises
25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US
27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity
28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength
31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape
33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity
36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity
39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity
41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets
43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity
44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector
45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets
46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years
50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy
51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends
56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles
57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth
59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation
1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends
Connect with me:
Twitter (X): / raoulgmi
Instagram: / raoulgmi
LinkedIn: / raoul-pal-real-vision
Newsletter: raoulpal.substack.com
My other work:
Real Vision: rvtv.io/3LHYIaH
Global Macro Investor: globalmacroinvestor.com
EXPAAM: expaam.com
Disclaimer: media.realvision.com/wp/20231...
#raoulpal #crypto #macro #liquidity #realvision #michaelhowell #macroeconomics #macroeconomia #financialeducation #financialmarkets #financialfreedom #financialplanning #financialliteracy

[@RaoulPalTJM]

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore 00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel 01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman" 01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis 02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role 03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity 03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity 05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept 07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics 10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s 12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance 15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets 17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics 18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt 21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises 23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises 25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US 27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity 28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength 31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape 33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity 36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity 39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity 41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets 43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity 44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector 45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets 46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years 50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy 51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends 56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles 57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth 59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation 1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends

[@atangbingana283]

thank you for time stamps!!

[@macco66]

Here for the hopium

[@larafer77]

Same, much needed brotha

[@kenfordbitana]

oh yeah, this latest sell off has been the most dramatic my time being in

[@BootsOfLeather]

The dips from 14k back to 6k was much worse. Also the 3k double bottom was nasty. Although it was a similar feel.

[@juliusfichtl4525]

Stayed for the education

[@tomasnunez8518]

Much needed after those downward spiral fireworks on July 4th!

[@user-diwm9wl2fp9s]

Michael is 2 steps ahead of most talking heads. Clever and forward looking. Zoomed out, yet present. Excellent!

[@bizarreaudio]

78 gg. P ..b v😅😮😮😮😮😢😮😢😢😢😢😢😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😢😮😅😢😮😮😮😢😮 nm. . Ml. B Pp. M.7 . ..nm... g 😅😅😅. M. Nm

[@Lenny37s]

Absolutely fantastic. What a fountain of economic knowledge Michael is. Thoroughly enjoyed this one

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@soothingrelaxationandmedit68]

Working with professionals who have expertise and experience in the market can provide valuable insights and guidance to navigate volatile times. Thanks alot for this insight.

[@camela8445]

Certainly can provide personalized insights and help align your strategy with your goals.

[@V.stones]

Vanguard VTI. You can count on a net 9% with a reasonable standard deviation of 15 to 17%. Start early, be consistent and the miracle of compound growth will take over. Use time as the real basis of growth...it takes about 5 years.

[@Deitricklaverne]

It's also essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.

[@Deitricklaverne]

the problem is that most don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high in these challenging conditions.

[@Deitricklaverne]

the strategies for diversification into other commodities are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skills and knowledge

[@XRPeasy]

Came for the hopium, 11:33 stayed for the KNOWLEDGE 😊 !!!

[@beginning-j8h]

Howell is the only person on RV who has been right about the market direction for the last 3-4yrs (Steno is another but with a bit lower accuracy). All other folks on RV are basically same as cramer.

[@peterbedford2610]

Exactly

[@markpalmer8083]

Cramer?

[@dtb7872]

Can we all pitch in and get Michael an external microphone?

[@oggyoggy1299]

Go for it.

[@AdamTemple8888]

No for real. He's speaking to us from 2005, about 2025.

[@tommipommes]

😂

[@VDJ4500]

Let’s get him Temu app, maybe he’ll win a coupon and get one great mic for $3 + $45 of other junk.

[@jimlynch5608]

This was a great interview, a must to listen to. I’m on my 3rd time

[@CryptoTaxAttorney]

Sorry Raoul but Michael is the absolute GOAT.

[@skillz4life360]

2 veterans with a collective 85 years or so of experience. Just amazing

[@jeremyplante6698]

It sounds like we have a Liquidity Super Cycle forming

[@engrahmed7122]

What a timing and what a guest. you are the man Raoul. we are in-debt to you. Hats off

[@michaelholmes8848]

Why do people feel the need to speak for others?

[@donTeo136]

Certainly Raoul / Howell makes it easy to stay in crypto on dumps.

[@mwilliamson4198]

Dump = retracement. It's a standard part of ALL markets. Just it's a higher % in crypto

[@dav1ddjg]

Thanks for reiterating why value investing is dead (SPYV is perfectly fine) but picking individual value stocks led me to value traps.

[@saxonsmith1475]

That was great interview

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Thank you so much for watching and for your kind words!

[@gabrielalfoad9222]

@@RaoulPalTJM Thank you for your hard work. one Q: ISM is the 1-United States ISM Manufacturing PMI or 2- PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX ? thanke you

[@angelawinstone7236]

U.S. Manufacturing PMI is at 48.5. It has declined each month for the last 3 months.

[@MilesC-i5z]

Liquidity inflow ✅

[@pondweedfilms]

Another fantastic contribution to the space from RV. We learn when we listen - this is worth the listen.

[@ecoflowchch4024]

There is knowledge and experience. Experience is linked to time. These two gents have bucket fulls of time in the game and therefore the experience gained is invaluable. Fantastic .

[@ChristineMeier963]

Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.

[@aaronnorton2006]

12m16s: Raoul asks Michael straight-up if [Michael] ever gets frustrated with the "mid-curvers" who claim global liquidity is bunk. Great question, Raoul! Loved Michael's response. Spot on.

[@whoiswho22]

Thank you so much for bringing clarity into whats going on and really driving the markets.

[@evermore8888]

Awesome analysis presented in such a clear and understandable manner by 2 amazingly intelligent and perceptive men….thank you both!

[@narcissus10]

Super discussion.

[@SuperBadger1983]

when MEWN? 🌔

[@MB-tz7by]

A but complicated to follow. Just some feednacl @rv how to simplify for the layman? Can we get a summary of takeaways at the end or something?

[@marcjost6695]

lovely talk!

[@johns4412]

Outstanding discussion

[@jackycornille8027]

Super interesting. This liquidity is everything.

[@glennhamilton6752]

Great interview. Covers so much I’ll need to listen to this a few times. Thanks

[@ChristopherWalkenPUA]

Amazing! Great emphasis on how the current 4 year cycle is necessary to refinance debt.

[@victoriaramsay1219]

When are you coming to Perth?

[@batboy.]

Buying 10 year Treasury Bills as we speak, nah ill just back crypto thank you very much!

[@issenvan1050]

How about the long & variable lags?

[@investograf]

Can you please share where exactly can we find data about PBOC liquidity injections?

[@SnowShredder81]

Outstanding stuff. Loved it

[@TheAlp99]

bombastic thnks a lot.

[@youssefnassar693]

My day gets better when Raoul post a video

[@garyobrien8387]

Brilliant....

[@wbltrack07]

why not show the different watches via tagging(?) on the video timeline?

[@julius_nuernberger]

THANKS Raoul and Michael!

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Appreciate your support, glad you enjoyed the video!

[@clarewithrow]

Excellent! Thank you

[@StephenBennettOnGoogle]

Absolutely THE best podcast I've seen in a long time.

[@todorgrigorov8408]

What id TGA and liquidity drags the greenback down, then the OIL price shoots up and inflation comes back? How that is going to affect the interest rate cuts? Also, what if before the liquidity shooting higher we get into a recession in the US with spillover effects across global economy? Also OECD YoY 3-month MA has started rolling down for China and other developed economies. M1 has started turning up on a YoY basis, but China hasn’t participated so far. China Total Social Financing also still hasn’t turned up. Is China waiting for the FED to cut to start stimulating?

[@beary0418]

Great listen

[@simplehomecookingandpainti395]

Thank you! ❤❤❤

[@JToddDavey]

Great show thx Raoul!

[@repelista6967]

Great piece!

[@DavidIckringill]

This was an incredible video. Thank you both, awesome.

[@leonard_Greatness]

Thanks RP for creating a platform for high level discussion ❤

[@RamoStar11]

Thank you 🙏🏾

[@tjunglec]

Thanks both ❤

[@SteveDressler]

RAOUL has it down HODL Cool heads prevail

[@RatherBeSailing]

Listening closely to you. You’re a crypto rock star.

[@cryptoassetcai]

Great video

[@kenr4186]

So, the S&P will continue to rise through the end of 2024, regardless of what the charts are saying?

[@oceanbearing]

Great video. There are always great insights but don't really do much better financially then before. Still entertaining to watch and great insights from the guests.

[@sethdub8795]

wow 🔥

[@jarinorvanto4301]

I'm not sure if it is true (29:00), but if it is, isn't it part of the so called Triffin paradox?

[@jaykeough6199]

As the FED and the Treasury change their approaches to injecting liquidity, it’s really helpful to understand the timing and what the alternatives will be. Thank you Raoul and Michael!

[@DJToaster2]

fantastic duo

[@andrewhajduk3865]

This guest is brilliant! Thank you Raoul for bringing such talent on the show!

[@TheNewDaVinci_Chess]

13% sell off overnight. Fear at its height. Sounds like BTC is a lead for the economy slowing, fed cutting and pumping and then crypto flying

[@markpalmer8083]

Bitcoin, not crypto. Learning why will be beneficial to you.

[@jorgelopez3288]

Really amazing. It's difficult to believe that's been so easy to invest. But it's not easy to not mid curve it. Dftu, don't midcurve

[@jacksonbi3391]

Don’t fight against the price action

[@sgstuff]

The bananas must flow.

[@CurtwoodBearsman]

2nd 😎

[@rob1065]

For clarity it’s not a “second mortgage” it’s an increase in Mortgage limit, which can be used and paid back at will…. If the USA does this it will be huge, furthermore most of EU does not allow this type of home equity redraw, if / when they do the amount of capital locked up in generational property is €tn’s it will fund entrepreneurship and will be enormous

[@tomaszkobusinski4266]

Awesome. I'm really beliver in that...

[@careychambers6641]

🥇🙏

[@JosiahSmelser]

Raoul - phenomenal value as always. Thanks for all you do!

[@lobs7635]

Great job as always Pal! Love to have liquidity updates a quarterly thing 😊❤

[@vatchebalayan3397]

Thank you!

[@anilpandit2607]

The Vematum ecosystem is top-notch. Can't wait to see it grow!

[@tonysilke]

Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

[@Nernst96]

Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

[@CharlieMoneyPH1]

Thank you Raoul and Michael. Another for keeps video. Save and Bookmark this!

[@user-nu5ww1el4q]

Inverse banana so far

[@radeque]

Lol

[@alexmcleran9680]

On what time scale? Did you get into Crypto in 2024

[@G-immortal7]

😂

[@achimillner8109]

😂

[@Shakdnugz2024]

Hi not a bot, but this is one for the history books, great ep!

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Glad you enjoy it!

[@jarinorvanto4301]

When "Charlie's trying to diversify", we're talking big digits.

[@issenvan1050]

What do you think about Eurodollars?

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks

[@Simi1984]

Thanks!

[@amp2463]

thank u

[@tony57racing4]

Thanks guys/gals!

[@issenvan1050]

Watch Steve Hanke on the Quantity Theory of Money. You sound like a monetarist.

[@SB-ob8ec]

Amazing deep dive into liquidity. Thanks Raoul!!

[@RaoulPalTJM]

You got it!

[@dennisxenos2790]

Great stream gents

[@jason1014]

Brilliant guys

[@slamslidestyle]

M. Howell is one of my favorites. So much insight.

[@RaoulPalTJM]

Your support means the world to me. Thank you for being a loyal viewer!

[@yardencohen1195]

GM from The Real World by tate. Raoul Pal is a true G

[@shurikansounds]

Appreciate the information sehr

[@walkonearthofficial]

You can almost hear Christine Lagarde's voice saying " Clever Men" while taking a sip of Tea lol

[@patricethomas7703]

You need to interview Jeff Booth..

[@hume1234561]

More liquidity means monetary debasement as was mentioned. Which forces gold monetisation and a gold revaluation. That is the end of the USD as the global reserve currency. What is being implemented is capital controls and further deindustrialisation. A permanent recession if you will. This stops domestic claims on currency so governments can meet oversea obligations.

[@paulw1969]

Brilliant! Thanks for this, Raoul. Brrrrrrrrrrr.

[@jarinorvanto4301]

What's the correlation, if any? (50:35) And if 'strong' correlation (what is strong, by the way?), which of the two is a leading indicator, with or without causality? It could be applicable information, regardless of causality, if only the correlation is strong enough.

[@lucaskoa]

🐐🐐

[@issenvan1050]

All inflation is monetary, there is no non-monetary inflation!

[@simrans3675]

Raoul, if this debt refi cycle has been there every 4-5 yrs for the last 100 years, why havent markets always one up forever? Look at the markets in 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 200s....markets have 0 return for 10-15 years many times.....only after 2008 did we see a secular markets go up