🔍 Semi-Final 1 Results & Analysis - Eurovision 2024

I give my deep dive stats analysis of Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2024, looking at how the numbers tell the story of what happened in this Semi-Final
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:49 Running Order
5:38 People like Ballads
8:00 Points distribution
12:17 Iceland
12:49 Croatia
16:04 Ireland
19:39 Luxembourg
22:05 Finland
23:08 POrtugal
24:08 Poland
24:45 Moldova
25:40 ROTW Vote
27:52 Updated Qualify Streaks & Serbia
30:32 Azerbaijan
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Eurovision Hearts: Thanks to Smthngnw on Wikipedia
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Video Link: • MBB - Feel Good (Vlog No Copyright Music)
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[@pirukiddingme1908]

“If you have a ballad where they’re just standing there doing nothing, it won’t work” hi hello from Latvia

[@ESCTom]

I guess people liked his guns 💪🏻 and giant hoop ⭕️

[@pirukiddingme1908]

@@ESCTom he’s a handsome boi

[@tonyttt31]

Latvia broke a lot of rules too this year.

[@thefloatingmadness]

​@@ESCTomThey liked emotions in his voice

[@zwelfbungt]

@@ESCTom looking forward to the SF2-analysis to see your conclusion how an entry that was last in the qualifying odds wasn't even a borderliner in the end.

[@escgabe]

Again immaculately timed for me to watch on my commute home (and banger video as always)

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Gabe ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@nielsb1046]

Large Portuguese diaspora in Luxembourg. So it makes sense they voted for each other.

[@diegosanchezhernandez2356]

Portugal also gave 8 points to Cyprus, so maybe they really like those girl-bops XD

[@robertcepo1505]

Im dying over ''croatia's basic bitch pop era'' hahaha

[@Ben-mz9vn]

I remember Semi 1 as the calm before the storm…

[@ESCTom]

they were better times...

[@luukjoling1]

When there was still some joy left 😂

[@meropale]

Semi 2 was the calm before the storm

[@njtyan7297]

Storm is a very soft word to describe what happened. I would rather call it the calm before the hurricane😅

[@meropale]

Right now I prefer using storm over the other word.

[@theHKguy]

You dont understand how long ive been waiting for this 😂

[@audi0078]

Hey Tom , just wanted to tell you i saw Irish GF performance 100 times. It was amazing. Im so happy for you this year 😊

[@logi-a]

There is a massive polish diaspora in Iceland, like 8% of our population is polish. Also our commentator made a funny political reference about the staging (more specifically the red horse) which probably kept the song in peoples minds.

[@in_wino_veritas]

Yeah, it might be this, but once I saw an interview of Hera Björk where she was being asked about the other contestants' songs and she named The Tower as one of her favorites, which could have had an impact as well.

[@wilyriley_]

@@in_wino_veritasrealistically, this wouldn’t have an impact; the vast majority of voters are casuals and would therefore never have seen the jntervirw

[@RiyaSDesai]

i'm so ready to replay this video every day until the next video is out

[@ESCTom]

😂❤️

[@erinnadia0409]

Ireland is still my most watched performance of the year! It's just so much fun to go back and re watch. Because this year left me feeling angry and depressed I haven't been able to re watch the show itself which is something I usually do, I just can't bring myself to re watch the year but I love going on KZbin to watch Bambie's performance 🇮🇪🖤

[@tonyttt31]

I watch it daily and also love watching reaction videos of it too.

[@ESCKrish]

the results of this semi prove that although diaspora/neighbour voting does not guarantee qualification (i.e. Poland), it absolutely does give you a head start over other countries (ie. Serbia vs. Australia). That's not neccesarily a bad thing, obviously people from the balkans are more likely to understand the lyrics of Ramonda and resonate with it. But as long as we all recognise it

[@Eum67]

Congrats Tom. How happy to see you feeling over the moon for Ireland’s incredible results. Honestly, Bambie was TOP on every level. WOW love from Armenia 🇦🇲

[@CalMilligan02]

The 12 points from Moldova to Cyprus is bizarre to me. Azerbaijan makes a little bit more sense since they gave 6 points in the televote in the final, but Moldova gave Cyprus 0 points in the final, which doesn’t add up

[@kpeyton3]

Luxembourg has a significant Portuguese minority at around 20% of the population. Maybe that explains the high score due to their connections??

[@ESCTom]

wow that is huge, i had no idea there were so many portuguese there

[@JJSFC]

Interesting that Azerbaijan have started not qualifying now there isn’t any jury involvement in the semis. Veeery interesting.

[@thel8624]

Very impressive that the first five and six out of the first seven qualified The entire top 4 came from the first half

[@maja-tea]

The Azerbaijan situation seems to be even more dire than you'd think. Someone from their team said that every single decision made for Eurovision is the work of one influencial person who doesn't know much/doesn't care about Eurovision. Not only staging and styling, but also the act as Fahree actually didn't even win the internal selection process but the winning artist (who is pretty much hinted to be Aisel) was ditched in favor of Fahree by this person with a lot of power.

[@ESCTom]

Jaysus ok that sounds like a very bad situation

[@complainingperson2883]

I love the new intro pic; happy to see you include countries we're missing

[@GLee-sy7ek]

Hoping Australia’s broadcasters SBS and Blink TV watch this and bring back Australia Decides next year or at the very least encourage songwriters/performers to compete in an internal song selection. Competition brings out the best in Aussies🇦🇺. Bring on 2025!

[@ritvarsberzins9426]

I was starting to wonder if we will have these semi-final analysis with nerdy table and complete overlook of point distribution! Yessssss

[@enthughesed]

Cyprus won Moldova's televote in the semi final, which is one of the smallest in terms of total votes, but only came 18th in Moldova in the final... They certainly used some "creative" strategies to qualify let's say. And the team behind the entry has done this before, I think they did Sugar - Moldova 2021.

[@skprincess725]

Are you implying cyprus cheated?

[@alexandrenabais6053]

There a lot of Portuguese people in Luxembourg, so that is probably why we gave them 10 points and they gave us 12 points.

[@catherinecurran7898]

One of the only SFs where I'm not disappointed about any of the NQs

[@nobodyimportant281]

As Serbian, I'm really happy we made it and I'm very proud of Teya Dora, but RTS needs to change our approach. We need to stop relaying on disapora and neighbour votes. Poland proved they're not 100% reliable anymore. Or maybe EBU just needs to stop putting us in death slots.

[@ESCTom]

Yea it’s half the bad luck from the running order slots, and half that I think the staging needs to change a bit

[@belosevickris3379]

I think the rock was not on the mark in the semi, and the lights were all wrong. Teya's movements depended on where the rock was, and nothing worked. It was too dark. I genuinely thought we wouldn't qualify because the performance looked bad, sort of a dark mess with weird camera cuts. But in the finals, the lights were much better. Still, I think RTS should actually send with the delegation someone who knows camera work and light, to help with that part. Lights were off-beat, camera cuts were too wide and also off-beat, and some of them were just weird like someone drunk took them. I am a bit frustrated that performances on PZE actually always have better camera work and light than the ones on ESC when it should be the other way around

[@dora01abale]

I think the televote did everything right in this Semi-Final. I was so, so happy for Raiven, because the odds predicted Slovenia not to Q. Furthermore, I was only a bit surprised that Poland didn't manage to qualify with all its neighbors and diaspora potential.TBH, Luna's vocals were not on point, and the staging was not effective enough for the causal viewers...Above that, so happy that 🇵🇹 🇷🇸 🇸🇮 made it through ❤ Most positive surprise: Luxembourg qualifying comfortably (I always believed in Tali)

[@andrewng5216]

I wonder if the balkan non participants are showing up in rest of the world. I'm actually happy the balkan block stayed strong (despite being australian, that staging missed the strrngth i associate wuth electric fields). Hopefully it will encourage some of the others to come back.

[@konstantinkoychev1781]

Re: the Portuguese points for Luxembourg - Tali's dancers were Portuguese and I think the commentators made sure to mention that multiple times. Also, let's not kid ourselves with those 12's for Cyprus - Kontopoulos and the dream team are notorious for buying televotes (Moldova 2021, anyone?). Is it surprising that they got 12 from the 2 countries that tend to have the lowest televoting figures? There is no way Cyprus of all countries could beat Ukraine in the Moldovan televote in a natural way, it's just not realistic.

[@ESCTom]

yea tbh i didnt want to say it cos i dont have any solid evidence myself

[@cathalsheehan9596]

Especially when you consider in the final Ukraine got 12 points in the Moldova televote and Cyprus end up 18th...

[@jennysid]

Hi Tom, great video as always ! Just wanted to let you know that there is a HUGE former Jugoslavian diaspora all over Europe and the rest of the world, especially in the United States and Canada. One thing about this diaspora is, that they are all PASSIONATELY voting for all the former jugoslavian countries, since the rest of the world vote was introduced. Thats reason why Slovenia got 7 and Serbia 4 points from the rotw- vote, not because of a euro fandom thing.

[@iAvrilFan1]

Ireland getting 666 points from Azerbaijan, Croatia and Cyprus combo on that tab 😂

[@rowo2774]

6 times 6 points

[@debsiduracel]

Wouhuuu, what a detailed analyzis Tom!!!😮

[@nikolag.-rb5ql]

Finally, I've been waiting for this. As you said, I'm also so excited for Croatia🇭🇷 for next year. Maybe we could try with ethnic banger, like Nevera (Lei, Lei) last year for Dora, but with real staging, of course. Also, I'm so happy for Ireland 🇮🇪, Bambie did an amazing job. Very nice to see all three female ballads in the finals, but it's second time in a row that Croatia🇭🇷 basically saved Serbia🇷🇸 from elimination (last year we also saved Luke Black, otherwise Latvia would pass). Please, next year no more dead slots for Serbia.😄😄😄

[@ESCTom]

yea I agree about Serbia and that the flip side is that they have the most horrible luck in always being in the 1st half.

[@ElfenLied987]

Got you Tickets Tom for any of the irish concerts! So excited to see them...

[@cathalsheehan9596]

In regards to Cyprus getting 12 from Azerbaijan and Moldova. Two words…dream…team.

[@ESCTom]

😇

[@lynetteh824]

Hiya Tom! Guys! 😊 FYI, if you dont already know, watch Brunette being represented on the COLOR channel, with a new song. She's brilliant with a really cool song! Enjoy, cheers.

[@DarkFlareGC]

Thanks for the roundup Tom! 😁

[@ESCTom]

❤️

[@CarlosCarvalho-kg7is]

I'm Portuguese and I've voted 5 times for Moldova :) so I like to believe i've contributed for the Portuguese 5 points to Moldova :) Also voted 5 times in Ireland. My fave in semi 1 was Croatia, but I was so sure it would reach the final, so I decided to help others :) In the final, I voted 5 times in Croatia, 5 times in Ireland and 5 times in Norway... my top 3 since the beginning. :)

[@perfectXcrime]

Hiii! ✌️ I gave all my votes to Slovenia this year and last year as well. Reason I did that is because they sent really nice artists who had lower qualification chances, but nonetheless I could see how much they worked to be there and how genuinely happy and thankful they were for having the Eurovision Experience. I loved mother Raiven this year, I think her vocals were superb. And Joker Out brought so much energy and good vibes on stage. I think Slovenia artists from this year's and the last were very relatable and active on social media. I also hate to see such nice artists having lower qualification chances because their songs are more or less niche. I am the type of person who votes for the underdogs in the semifinals, ngl 😅 but I guess main reason I voted for Slovenia is because I voted with my heart, not just for the song but also for the people they sent. Sort of like Miss Congeniality award if you want to call it like that 😂

[@perfectXcrime]

And I also loved the meaning of Veronika

[@ESCTom]

Yea great summary of why Slovenia were very popular in the community this year and last year too

[@jum4092]

I was planning to vote for Australia until I saw the performance. It felt just flat, nothing was happening and the singing was also not great. In the end I actually couldn't vote at all because I didn't have money (should have checked before), but the 8 other countries I needed to go through went through. I was undecided on Cyprus and Luxembourg but their qualification still felt right

[@lovemeamerica]

Cyprus cheated to get those 12s from Azerbaijan and Moldova. No doubt in my mind

[@ESCTom]

you mean like buying SIM cards or something?

[@lovemeamerica]

@@ESCTom Probably something like that. They don't seem like difficult countries to target

[@Troyian74]

I do believe that you believe that but you are cherry picking and you know you are doing it. All countries cheat one way or another. I mean for example Polland was expected to qualify based only on their diaspora. It was pre decided by the fandom etc. but then they didnt. But had they qualified it would have been only based on their diaspora and it would have been ok cause it was expected. And diaspora voting becomes a given right in peoples calculations. So everything will fall into line according to the perceived ideas and there wont be any upsets. Was Cyprus qualifying an upset? It was to many people. How about Serbia then who qualified thanks to Croatia and Serbia basically? That wasnt really an upset was it? Cause everyone knew that the only way to qualify was gonna be with friendly votes right?

[@lovemeamerica]

@@Troyian74 Diaspora and SIM cards are not the same and deep down I think you might be just bright enough to grasp that simple notion

[@Iamyouiay]

Having points from as many countries as possible doesn’t necessarily mean you don’t rely on the diaspora. It simply implies that you may have a more widespread diaspora? I believe this year has demonstrated that the televote is way more political than the jury vote, not always in the geopolitical sense but sometimes in the social or cultural sense.

[@cameronclare2132]

I would be suspicious of those 12 points from Azerbaijan & Moldova (over neighbouring Ukraine?!) for Cyprus if I was the EBU. After all, the song was composed by a member of the infamous "Dream Team" that used to contain Filip Kirkorov. And their songs always used to obtain weird voting patterns...

[@adamtideman4953]

Luxembourg returning to the contest is proving to be a bit of a hidden gift to Portugal. Now they have their own satellite state with diaspora to squeeze in some extra televote.

[@ESCTom]

tbh i dont mind that, as i dont feel portugal got much for free ever

[@adamtideman4953]

​@@ESCTom Yeah they usually dont get that much in terms of diaspora or neighbour voting anyway

[@daydani]

​@@ESCTomNot even from Spain!

[@ESCOscar]

Hi! I love your videos ❤❤ very well detailed

[@ESCTom]

Thank you so much ❤️

[@willardprenfrew4303]

Supreme analysis Tom 👌💜💙💜👌

[@ESCTom]

Thank you ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@ATG-gc2cy]

24:56 I can’t say “An analysis” either. 😂 Super Video Tom, thank you.

[@henning1152]

the Cyprus, Moldova and Azerbaijan scores being a bit to close to not suspect anything wierd, like Azerbaijan always has some interesting things with their votes

[@henning1152]

(yes all the scores are quite similar i semis)

[@tony0930]

May be alone with that, but I hope that the juries can make a comeback in the SF The problem is that in Final we don't have a big jury pool anymore so probably we gonna have every year that one jury winner with 340-360 points so that any public winner cannot beat And an Benjamin Ingrosso Moment isn't realistic like in 2018, because all jury bait songs potentially getting destroyed like Benjamin will NQ. So the jury winner is getting at least 150-180 points from the public and basically impossible get overtaken. I guess we have to get used to Moments like Baby Lasagna this year/ Käärijä last year And that's NOT good for the competition and it's reputation

[@christianglas1584]

I agree. Also juries tend to support smaller countries like Malta, they always had good jury results (2018 for example) and were screwed by the televoters then. And we do see Malta struggling brutally the last two years without the juries in the semis. Juries made sure the countries are more diverse, but the next years we won't see Malta or San Marino in the final.

[@Scheherasad]

??? Public made sure that singer with great vocals got through even though they sung ballads(Serbia, Portugal, Slovenia, Latvia)

[@ESCTom]

Yep I spoke about this my grand final jury video last year, I’m going to speak about it again this year, because it could be a possibility that this is a new trend. 2 years is too early to say, but I’m gonna compare the last 2 years jury winner leads over previous years

[@Alonpas]

The problem isn't small jury pool in the final. The problem is that the juries had 1 clear favourite year after year so they gave them million points to make sure no one will be able to catch them. And we definitely don't need to get used to that. The solution is not to bring them back to the semi finals. On the contrary. The solution is to reduce their power in the final. Something like 60-40. Would be enough for kaarija and BL to get the victories they both deserved!

[@Iamyouiay]

Taking the juries away from the semis was the worst decision ever. Not only it disables talented artists from getting in the finals like Australia and Malta this year or Latvia last year but it also takes away the entertaining factor from the voting part.

[@tonyttt31]

My thoughts. I think there's a lot of positives to be taken from the voting patterns in semi 1 this year. It's great that the quality entries from the first half shone through and that there were no undeserving casualties of the running order. Secondly, even though all of Poland's friends were in the semi, they didn't qualify. Which I felt was the right result. Thirdly, multiple ballads can qualify. Although, Serbia and Slovenia may have managed it because of neighbourly votes. I wonder if Slovenia's ROW votes came from all the Balkan countries that didn't participate this year and so would come under ROW.

[@ESCTom]

Yea that’s true about the Balkan votes if Montenegro And Bulgaria were voting

[@tonyttt31]

@@ESCTom N Mac, Romania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Slovakia.

[@johnmoynahan874]

I was waiting for this Tom Totally in your element surrounded by stats and streaks! Very entertaining and your graphics/graphs are so easy to follow. I had 2 suprises in this semi. #1 I was suprised by the performance of Luxembourg. With no natural "friends" voting in this semi (Germany perhaps) to do so well across the board was a shock for me. Was there a similar event happening here as in semi 2 due to ethnicity. I hope not! #2 Serbia qualifying. I really liked this song pre the semifinal but I have to say that for me, this was the longest 3 mins of the night. Totally uninspiring and was only the last 30 seconds that I enjoyed. This really was a shock for me and if it wasn't for the 22 pts garnered from Slovenia and Croatia it would have been a deserved NQ. I'm sorry Serbia but this is my truth. So glad to see Ireland rewarded by every televote in this semi. It was totally deserved. Whether you appreciated the song or not, noone could deny that this staging was absolutely amazing. Sergio Jaen better be prepared for a load of offers for future staging productions. For this vision of a 22 year old to come together in just 5 days was nothing short of incredible. Well done again Tom. Looking forward to the semi 2 and grand final deep dives 👏👏👏👏

[@ESCTom]

thank you so much John for the lovely comment ❤🙏🏻 I agree with everything you say, and i think Sergio will be in demand next year, but i also think he'd only accept something edgy. i really dont think hed accept an offer to do a girly bop

[@johnmoynahan874]

@@ESCTom er....no! 😁

[@Xiiao21]

I think you're on to something about the ROTW vote putting in a lot of votes for beloved songs that are in trouble. In a lot of places online I saw how people were saying Raiven was in trouble, I think even in one of your videos I saw you said that lmao. So instead of voting for absolute favorites we would vote for someone in our top 5 or top 10 who we think won't be able to make it otherwise.

[@garryd7748]

Wow….. Serbia’s neighbours did some heavy lifting to get them into the final…..

[@dra900nka1n]

Overall I think Luktelk is my favourite of the season. Hey Tom, I know you've been busy with unrelated stuff, but have you heard Sudden Lights' recent single Eastern European Dream? Morgan says it sounds like an instant indie rock classic and we both love it.

[@ESCTom]

I haven’t seen it yet. I’ll keep an eye out

[@jum4092]

There is a huge Polish diaspora in Iceland btw, I think at least 20k people, maybe a bit less than 10% of the population. Also, Luxembourg has a big Portugese diaspora so it seems that they swapped a few points as well (I didn't expect Luxembourg to get such high points from Portugal though)

[@LlamasAtMidnight]

Eurovision is over! Time to binge watch all of Tom's videos

[@ESCTom]

😂 ❤️

[@Ri_F]

Portuguese here: probabily all the votes for Luxembourg were sort of a "Stay with us 🥺" and giving back the high amount of points.

[@gameotaku900]

As long as you keep sending these great songs, I'll be voting for Portugal. I would have voted Portugal last year and the year before that as well, if I could have. Luxembourg loves you.

[@onidii]

I voted for Slovenia from ROTW because i was scared she wouldn't qualify, so i definitely believe a lot of other people did aswell

[@sav0001]

Definitely, I know that's what I did, all my 20 votes went to Raiven from Australia because I was scared she wouldn't qualify

[@leendertjanw7540]

Thanks for your thorough analysis Tom. Very well put together and a lot of things I can agree with. Personally I liked the Australian song a lot more than Luxembourg's as well and I agree that Australia's staging was just not that inspiring. And it's lovely to see you so ecstatic about Ireland 🙂; fantastic job from Ireland this year and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that RTÉ will learn from this and move forward, like other countries (such as Switzerland) have. Btw Poles are the largest immigrant group in Iceland, so that might indeed explain Iceland's 8 points for Poland?

[@ESCTom]

Yea next year is going to be a make or break it year for Ireland

[@radharose99]

24:23 there are many Poles living/working in Iceland

[@kc9music]

Australia didn’t have dancers, they were backing vocalists.

[@gameotaku900]

Love to see the Luxembourg x Portugal alliance ❤ We love you irmaõs. I voted 12 times for iolanda in the semi :)

[@sarahenchanted]

Moldova giving 12 to Cyprus is VERY weird but also this is Moldova we're talking about 😂

[@stevenwilliams3038]

One thing I noticed while looking at the Points Distribution is that every country that qualified from Semi-Final 1 (except Slovenia) got 12 Points from at least one other Country (Slovenia did get 2 10's) And the Only Non-Qualifier to get more than 6 Points form Any Country was Poland who got 8 Points from Iceland and 7 from Ireland. Also both the Top 2 Got Top 5 From Every Country. So Its not Only about getting Points From Every Country but getting Big Points from Every Country

[@mirka1107]

Sweden has a HUGE Finnish diaspora. Estimate is between 400.000-700.000. So Finland will always get good points from Sweden.

[@pasiheinonen4067]

22:18 Lots of people with Finnish background living in Sweden

[@VigoJ]

I honestly think Songvakeppnin is fine, last year they had a borderline qualifier and this year the public chose Hera Bjork over Bashar who would have most likely qualified, it's a blip but with context I think they're fine honestly.

[@yodenman]

Hi Tom. I know you are the king of Eurovision stats. I thought you would be quite interested in the UK chart placing. After just one week Ireland, the UK and Ukraine have dropped out of the top 100. Nemo is 37 dropping from 18. Both Croatia and the Netherlands have dropped down considerably but are still in the top 100. When you look at Eurovision music in the UK charts it's really surprising how few chart toppers there have been. There has been 5 UK songs...Sandy Shaw, Cliff Richard, Brotherhood of Man, Bucks Fizz and Gina G. That last one was way back in 1996..... good grief. Only 4 foreign acts have had number ones. Dana, Abba, Johnny Logan and Nicole.....way, eay back in 1982.....scary.

[@idankingon]

27:52 If Israel qualified in 2022, it would have 8 consecutive qualifications (not including 2019 when they hosted it)

[@sarahjcgillespie]

Interesting that both the UK and Ireland gave 12 points to Lithuania! Is it just the kind of sound that's trendy over here? I absolutely loved Luktelk and voted for it loads in both the semi-finals and the final, but I didn't think the whole country would, most other Brits think my music taste is weird 😂

[@panosg2686]

is the running order that important at the end of the day? Since the day the songs are out, us fans and the odds have like a 80-90% correct prediction of who goes through just based on the song and the country behind it. Only a few songs are really 'borderline' each year

[@ESCTom]

Personally I make some decisions based on running order and I think the odds do too

[@gothiclight8048]

I think Iceland was under pressure to pick a safer choice particularly given what might have gone down if they had sent Bashar Murad but 3 points is still disappointing for them

[@utkarshrastogi3996]

Waiting for this video since so long 😂. Australia would have placed over Serbia if not for the friendly voting

[@lambrosfoukas]

the points worth mentioning are the following, firstly, Luxembourg went better than we expected, because Tali is from Israel, secondly, because I am from Greece, I believe that Dimitris Kontopoulos, who has written many songs for Eurovision in Moldova and Azerbaijan , this helped Cyprus a lot, of course let's say that even without the 24 points, Cyprus would still have pass, thirdly, it seems that when the song is not good or does not have good vocals, the diaspora does not help you, for example this year Albania and Poland and last year Greece, fourth, Azerbaijan without committees will have a lot of difficulty getting by, as is already happening with Malta and San Marino.

[@DramaticTeacup]

I am surprised that we 🇺🇦 only gave 3 points to Poland , I thought that Luna would be in our top 3 regardless.Last year we gave 12 points to BLANKA and here we're giving 3.Could this maybe be influenced by that Polish farmers scandals we had this year?Is our esc friendship over ?

[@aribrava]

Maybe they ukranians Simply didn't think It was good?

[@DramaticTeacup]

@@aribrava maybe , maybe

[@ReckMech]

I think it's better in the semmi final to do a 75 tele 25 jury dplit

[@antoinemadelon1274]

I think Poland we're also really hurt by having to perform in the middle of the Ireland, Ukraine, and Croatia run, all very strong entries with very good staging and performances. In comparison their package just wasn't regarded as being nearly as strong, and even the Polish diaspora didn't turn out for it (except for in Iceland where there is a big Polish diaspora).

[@umutcertel3398]

8 points from Iceland to Poland: Polish are the biggest diaspora in Iceland by a huge margin. According to 2023 data, 6% of Iceland's population is Polish.

[@ConESC26]

Interesting that Serbia received points from few countries but qualified

[@vohol6158]

What was the jury golden rule? I've never heard of it

[@ESCTom]

10th qualifier was the highest ranked jury song

[@vohol6158]

@@ESCTom ok, thanks!

[@gothiclight8048]

Is Semi 2 analysis also coming soon?

[@ESCTom]

yep im editing it now

[@gothiclight8048]

@@ESCTom I look forward to it!

[@kolbrunbjorg6559]

24:23 there is a huge Polish diaspora in Iceland!! Most of the immigrants here are Polish so the 8 points are probably largely because of them hahah! They are around 36% of all the immigrants in Iceland actually. Edited to add a fun fact: many signs in Iceland now have three languages. Icelandic first, then English and the last one is Polish.

[@christianglas1584]

"If you're not doing well, it's your fault." I disagree with that. Still remember Ireland 2015? Many people loved her but she didn't qualify, probably because of the running order. But that was neither her fault nor was it Ireland's fault in general.

[@ESCTom]

i loved 2015, but that staging was super flat and unimaginative

[@christianglas1584]

@@ESCTom It was rather uncreative, but I think it added to the charm of the song. Also I don't know how I would've staged that song, and since it was very beautiful and charming yet simplistic, I don't have issues with it.

[@ddraven3180]

Technically, while the jury prevented it, by the rules we have now of only tele mattering we actually would have had the first 3 songs all Qing in semi 2 of 2012. Edit: Also no, tele absolutely is still not good for ballads lol. All 3 ballads here barely scraped through and were heavily helped by having free 10s/12s from neighbors/diaspora heavy countries. All one needs to see is their "amazing" tele in the final to confirm that no, ballads still need to either be perfect or they'll get scraps while basic up tempo sells far more easily

[@VascoTeixeira354]

But two of the three ballads just qualified because of neighboring votes. Slovenia and Serbia would have not qualified without each others’s and Croatia’s votes. (Having the whole three ex-Yugoslavian states in the same semifinal is… weird…) Even Portugal’s 12 points from Luxembourg are diaspora, although they would’ve qualified even without those. And maybe the votes from Portugal to Luxembourg are “reverse love”.

[@ESCTom]

Yea I agree but at the end of the day, I think if Australia had sent more impactful staging, they would have made it. Also they had the best running order of those 3

[@5114355]

You missed Slovenia who also gave points to all other the qualifiers. And Like Croatia, and unlike Luxembourg, gave their 1 point to the non qualifier country, which makes it even more impressive in my opinion

[@ESCTom]

yes, good spot

[@catherinecurran7898]

Agree Australia blew it, I always said that song could have qualified with the right energy but it wasn't good. Really messy and Z's vocals were poor towards the end, and they didn't look very happy Delighted that Raiven Qd.

[@gabesotero]

I am Brazilian and I don't think Portugal high points were from Brazilian fans. At least from what I saw in my little fan circles... And we didn't come top 10 in countries that voted the most for RoTW

[@TomCatwhick.]

I was part of the rest of the world living in the US. voteing once again and I voted 20 times using 16 of my top 20 of the votes on 4 of the top 6 only not voting for Croatia and Luxembourg; Lithuania being the lowest of the top 6 there makes sense as I only ended up giving them 1 point in the end while everyone else I gave around an equal number of votes to. I was also on Twitter looking at people who posted their votes in the Rest Of the World who voted as soon as voting opened and one of the early ones gave 20 votes to Slovenia. I'm surprised Azerbaijian got 0 points from the Rest Of the World as the people I saw voting as soon as voting opened voted for Azerbajian (including me).

[@Saturinus]

Azerbaijan receiving 6 points from Moldova while all other countries gave them 1 or nothing. Do they really like that style of music in Moldova or...?

[@gothiclight8048]

Both returning artists in semi 1 both didn’t qualify. I think Moldova & Iceland were a bit too inspired by the returning artists who all qualified last year maybe

[@greygust3936]

4:50 Netherlands flag lol

[@ESCTom]

Omg you scared the crap out of me. I thought I’d gotten a flag wrong 😭

[@greygust3936]

@@ESCTom oh sorry

[@FeeESC]

luxembourg doing so well still blows my mind ngl

[@slovakian_cheese]

1:54 if poland would have qualified it eont happen cause serbia was 10th so if poland qualified serbia wont

[@annhenriques3520]

I vote for the song, not the country. Every year I have different countries in my top ten, with the exception of Ukraine, which almost always sends great songs.

[@christianglas1584]

"Standing there and looking pretty doesn't work, lazy generic jury bait ballads won't work then." Czechia 2016 with 0 tele points and only coming 21st with juries:

[@jijitters]

“If you have a ballad where they’re just standing there doing nothing, it won’t work” I agree but for some reason people voted for boring old France this year anyway haha

[@user-zl4mq3bf5c]

croatia - a convincing victory (televoting) in the semi-final and final, while the announced winner Nemo was only fifth in the semi-final and final, unfortunately😮😮😮😮😮

[@diekommentarekommentiererin]

4:10 If we look at just the first semi final, number 4 had a qualification rate of just 27%, the WORST of any slot in both semi finals, so that's the true death slot. 4:35 No, Slovenia was number 9 which had a qualification rate of 80% in the first semi final. 11 was Moldova, and that number is now the sole one to be tied with number 2 (since 3 qualified twice) And 11 is actually the televote death slot, qualifying one time less than number 2. 4:50 This looks like the Dutch flag lol 😄 5:40 Yeah, can we stop this myth now? Also regarding the juries who don't reward ballads by default. In both 2023 and this year, only two ballads were in the juries' top 10. 10:30 Didn't some people say Australia could pull a Gustaph? Well... They probably didn't have a lot of budget for the staging. 12:10 Both times the last place had 3 points. It's wild to finish 12th with just 10 points. 12:55 They got the exact same points as Finland in the semi final last year... and both had the same fate in the final. 13:55 This is just wild. It all could've gone differently for Croatia... They literally had a televote winner as a reserve entry! 14:35 Well, technically, Luxembourg has it too 😄 (29:45 Hehe...) 15:25 Would've happened in 2012 if only televoters decided... Still don't understand what juries saw in it. 17:50 Well, Latvia barely qualified in 2005 and then finished 5th in the final, so such things can happen. 21:40 Lena actually had only turned 19 a few days before the contest, even. 21:55 They have a 9 year televote qualification streak, so if not for juries, they'd have the third longest streak. (29:45 Never mind 😅) 22:05 I called it early on that it wouldn't do as well as everyone expects. The first half (5 of the 6 first half qualifiers are in the top 6) was just too strong and had songs people would vote for over Finland. 23:30 I was surprised Portugal received so little points from Luxembourg in the final considering their HUGE diaspora. Not even top 3... 26:15 It's odd that they drastically dropped in the final, finishing last in ROW vote iirc. 28:10 57 points for Serbia next year then? Since they improved by 10 😄 28:55 All of Finland, Lithuania and Portugal now have their longest qualification streak (not counting Finland hosting in 2007 since they didn't have to go through the semi final) Lithuania also has a 100% qualification rate in the first semi final (compared to Latvia having 0%) 29:30 This was Croatia's 3rd and Slovenia's 2nd qualification in the first semi final. On the other hand, Cyprus has only failed once in this semi final.

[@ESCTom]

great comments and stats there 🙌🏻👍🏻❤️

[@dragonblossom-qw2pl]

For Croatia this never will hapoened again and really hope that Croatia delegation will leave this competition and baby lasag a is one and only and nobody can replace him

[@ESCTom]

Why can’t it happen again?

[@dragonblossom-qw2pl]

@@ESCTomi don't believe in that we now have everything first time to win and on some way politics do whT did we can't denied that politics exist there🥲who cares for small country like Crostia

[@sucha0000]

Agree! This will probably never happen again. This was our chance and it's gone. BL had this incredible story and charisma. I don't think anybody could beat him. I guess we are going back to basic bitch pop songs 😂...HRT is corrupt as hell, nobody resigned, there were no consequences for these SOB's at all. So it would be better for us to withdraw from ESC.

[@Alonpas]

​​Switzerland thought the same in 2021 and now they did it. Italy was close in 2015 and 2019 and they did it in 2021. You are in a good momentum in the last 2 years with Let 3 and especially BL. If you keep that momentum - Your day will come. Loved BL by the way. Thank you for sending him. Not just a great song and an excellent performance but also such a sweet and kind guy. A new eurovision legend that will never be forgotten. Wish him all the best. 😊😊😊​@@sucha0000

[@noem.7430]

iceland should have sent bashar murad........

[@CallistoTheWarriorQueen]

Yeah our staging really let us down. I think it was a bit rushed and lower budget. Would have loved a lot more Aboriginal dancing and reall could have celebrated our indigenous culture. Missed opportunity indeed.

[@ESCTom]

Yea maybe tease the yidaki player earlier in the song? Have his do something in the first minute and then climax in the third?