🔎 Semi-Final 1 Running Order Analysis | Eurovision 2023

[@Midnightsstan521]

This is a Manifesting Circle for Latvia’s qualification 🕯️🕯️🕯️🔮🔮🔮🙏🙏🙏

[@oonanas6507]

🖐🏼🔮🤚🏼

[@kaylie209]

🔮🕯️🕯️🕯️

[@freshlypainted]

it’s qualifying. like why wouldn’t it. my non-esc friends that listened to a couple of songs all listed latvia as one of their faves!

[@sparkz2337]

@@freshlypainted the best songs dont usually win sadly

[@freshlypainted]

@@sparkz2337 I mean it won't win. but it will qualify.

[@zwelfbungt]

There is actually one moment in this running order where I have to laugh: Croatia and Switzerland back-to-back. Croatia lyrics: "Mama, I go to war", Switzerland lyrics: "I don't want to be a solider". Already iconic!

[@sixtiessyl]

He lost his desire to be a soldier when he saw the Let 3 guys 😂😂😂

[@nian60]

Yup, an anti-dictator song followed by a pro-fascist song. Hopefully the pro-fascist song is an NQ.

[@trildi]

@@nian60 How is it pro-fascist?

[@annisaurus]

2021 grand final: Germany: "I don't feel hate" (Next up) Finland: "We do"

[@jannerissanen2677]

Finland had to be last because they need time to repair the roof after the show 💃

[@sixtiessyl]

I was today years old when I realised Aija was the name of the song and Sudden Lights the name of the band, not the other way around 🤦‍♀️

[@ESCTom]

😂 🇱🇻

[@mattiassollerman]

Ben Robertson argued that the breaks will be between 5/6 and 10/11 and that we should think of the semis in terms of 3 mini shows 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15. In this sense Norway, Ireland and Sweden are 'openers'. Just a perspective. Trying to psychoanalyse the producers is always fun.

[@thelobsterperson]

Exactly, I don't understand how 6 and 7 are seen as these golden spots when they're nowhere near the end and just kind of in the middle not before a big break.

[@neconeconeco]

yeah sandwiching little Moldova between Israel (gigantic budget) and Sweden (gigantic budget) is so rough.

[@zsokapados5197]

Moldova really knows how to make an effective staging. I'm not worried about them! Also I think it's a break after Pasha's performance, because of Loreen's staging.

[@s2Capacidade2s]

Moldova is normally popular with televote. Here in Portugal we will likely give them our 12 points, cause of diaspora.

[@neconeconeco]

​@@s2Capacidade2s for sure, I think Moldova is a quite beloved country in the contest and they've come with something very authentically them; for people who aren't into the super produced girly bops it might be a breath of fresh air. i just hope they don't get forgotten!

[@jacklinders7495]

Moldova will go through. They mostly do

[@TH2714]

The Moldovan team is very creative when it comes to creating a great staging for a very cheap price. I am not worried about them.

[@worsttaste.3464]

I do not think the producers care about the statics and qualification history for each slot, they are just trying to make the best possible running order show wise.

[@ESCTom]

yea maybe, but i would be very surprised if they dont have delegations complaining to them every year about running order. There are definitely delegations who are pushing for a better spot. and if that's so, then the more they can improve the reputation of all slots, the less complaining and accusations of favouritism that they would get

[@WankingVanKing]

This is really shaping up to be a battle between Sweden and Finland. I agree with you that the odds of Finland are gonna rise a lot after the semi, i'm predicting they will be somewhere between 20-25%. The odds of Sweden may also go down a bit, maybe to around 30-35%.

[@michaelhammar2778]

If you are frome Finland you might think so!

[@budigunawan5624]

I think Sweden will win

[@Noksus]

@@michaelhammar2778 why only then?

[@michaelhammar2778]

@@Noksus Because there many other countries that can win over Sweden

[@budigunawan5624]

This is shaping up to be The Nordics vs The Big 5. My theory (based on the occult) Norway - opening SF1 Denmark - opening SF2 (likely NQ) Iceland - SF2 7th (borderline NQ) Sweden - SF1 11th Finland - closing SF1 7/11 LOL So Sweden wins since it's the only country that hasn't been in the opening or closing.

[@tappytoeclaws2233]

Malta and Moldova's slots have me REALLY worried. I'd love to see both those countries qualify. I think Malta's a little bit of a stretch but I REALLY don't think Moldova would have been a question if not for being stuck between too very bombastic songs. I love my pagan deer lady vibe song and I want it in the GF so badly.

[@Marie-rq2gp]

Yeah, and the thing is Pasha Parfeny has already been in Eurovision before, if Loreen passes to the final, so should he, its only fair

[@EmoBearRights]

Moldova's my fav in this final and in the UK I can't vote in this one.

[@silencestation557]

As long as Aijā qualifies from this semi, I'm happy. And Finland of course but there's not much to worry about. Glad they didn't put Latvia on 2nd slot... Can't vote myself unfortunately in semi1 but I've seen many comments about people loving Latvia and it gives me so much hope that they'll go through. Btw I really like your videos, subscribed recently 😊.

[@oonanas6507]

Latvia is the only one I was planning on voting for, so you can vote for Finland for me 😄 if we don’t win I hope it’s Latvia or Norway

[@silencestation557]

@@oonanas6507 Well I can't vote on sf1 but Finland will qualify for sure anyway. Thanks for voting Latvia!

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Silence 🙏🏻

[@lillecathrine]

I was right about Alessandra! Actually, my first thought when she won MGP was "Well I think we're being put to open the season after this." It just made sense. Finland is gonna get a momentum going into the grand final (like you mentioned) and I really hope this is a part of setting up a win for them. I just feel like this is the winner we all don't know we need for this year, but also the future of the contest. I think it's important to see an out of the box entry done this well manage to win, even with a jury weighing in 🤩

[@ESCTom]

i forgot to mention here but she also opened the entirety of MGP, the first song in the first semi 😂

[@michaelhammar2778]

And the fact that Loreen is fantastic and the Finnish entry is if you are nice catchy but in reality is kinda really bad music ,he cannot sing doesnt matter?

[@tuulas8650]

@@michaelhammar2778Luckily your opinions are not facts even though you may feel that way.

[@Scheherasad]

@@michaelhammar2778 Did Lena win because she had the best live vocals 2010? No Did she have the best performance? No Were there better songs+singer+performances that year? Yes Yes Yes Nevertheless she won so did also Netta with "Toy" or Lordi with "Hard Rock Halleluja"so why not Käärijä this year? Not always wins the best singer(+BlancaPaloma, La Zarra, Noa Kirel.....are great singer too and will also have an impressive performance not onlyLoreen and compared to Euphoria Tattoo is boring and some people will compare it to Euphoria) If you want that Loreen wins vote for her as many times as you can and we other ESC fans will vote for our favorite, in my case Käärijä and Luke Black

[@michaelhammar2778]

@@Scheherasad Get over it hater

[@magdalenap.7420]

Day #Ilostcount of convincing myself Latvia's a qualifier Slot 4 being statistically lucky has given me teeny tiny slice of hope 🥲 I checked, and excluding last year, all songs in that slot in 2019 and 2021 were televote qualifiers. Sudden Lights were placed between two songs that will have very extravagant stagings. Portugal is bringing a song with a different theme and mood, Serbia talks about a similar thing, but is a bit more experimental. I think it still makes them stand out, and there is a market for songs that are more atmospheric with a low-key staging. However, all the other songs they could potentially be compared to - slower/more emotional/guitar-driven - all come later, so I hope they'll bring a performance captivating enough to make people think they were better than the rest 😅

[@fitnessocelot123]

Luke's song is one of the strongest in the whole contest, and I'll be throwing my toys out of my pram if he doesn't qualify through being in this semi and this slot. 😬I would have swapped his slot with Croatia's.

[@021liman]

Slots arent that important in semis. In finals it is important becouse there is 3 hours between first and last song and nobody can remember what he saw at begining. In semis song are over in max 90 minutes and most ppl will remember for that much time.

[@oisin25]

Qualifying, imo Norway, Malta, Portugal, Israel, Sweden, Finland, Czechia, Moldova, Netherlands.. and then between Serbia or Swiss and Im leaning Serbia

[@markojovanovic5901]

What serbia is sure qualifying its big favourite of fans song is good, different and staging will be AMASING. I get serbia is always underated but tgis will be loved by fans caus eits wierd and good. Especially with tons of generic songs like isreal, sweden, armenia, austria etc

[@willardprenfrew4303]

I love this running order overall, I just hope Luke Black can get through!

[@askafroan525]

he will, he stands out alot and people will remeber him, so i'm not worried for luke black

[@venomasmr]

Konstrakta had no issue last year (number 3 in semi and number 5 in the final) do I'm not worried. Especially because it's televoting and us Serbs are everywhere 😂

[@HailTheHordes]

​@@venomasmr konstrakta nije bila 5 u finalu. Bila je predzadnja mislim

[@bojana9100]

​@@HailTheHordes 5.je bila

[@HailTheHordes]

@@bojana9100 gde je bila 5? U velikom finalu?

[@kingtrebor7215]

It's interesting that the two songs that stand out in terms of style in both SF1 and 2 are in slot 5, Portugal and Belgium. I hope it works out well for both of them!

[@aishirii]

I found your channel during the national finals and really like your reaction&analysis videos. Great work! 😊✨ And seeing that Finland is last, I was thinking maybe they are planning even bigger stage performance etc than originally people thought. Also tbh, watching UMK, I don't remember anything about Keira's performance because poor thing was right after Käärijä so maybe it is the best for him to be last. There may not be a roof left after him. 🤣

[@ESCTom]

awww poor Keira 😂 yea im hoping that he elevates more too. i know he said that he wanted to keep it the same, but hopefully the finnish team have spoken to him that they have a real chance to win

[@aishirii]

@@ESCTom I would think so since I have seen a lot of the feedback from Finns that the palets should not be taken to Liverpool 🤣 So I am trusting that him and his team will listen and polish the staging to be winner material. 🥰 Cannot wait! ✨

[@markojovanovic5901]

Serbia has iconic song and they have huge twlevotes always in top 10 by televot voting in finale so i am not worried about serbia the aong is liked by people a lot

[@jammysandwich]

I’ll be gutted if Latvia don’t make it. 🤞they do.

[@taijat]

They saved the best for the last🔥😍

[@stuh9584]

slightly worried about Moldova and Serbia after the draw now

[@Marie-rq2gp]

😢😢

[@luckysan4653]

Honestly, the only thing I ask for is for Serbia and Moldova to qualify 😩

[@RuddeyBoy90]

I predicted Sweden and Finland in their correct spot haha. That's it 😂 And we are agreeing completely on who we think at the moment will qualify! (Still hoping Latvia will go through somehow though. It will be difficult)

[@nsomandin5342]

Oh Tom thank you so much for putting my heart to rest with this positive Netherlands message lmfao, I'm gonna be mad if we don't qualify but there are so much songs in this SF i'd like to see qualify.

[@LifeSaver996]

We always get a shit draw in the semis and then a great one in the grand final. It kinda sucks we have to single handedly carry the qualification record for slot number 3 but someone's gotta do it! Remember to vote for Luke if you live in semi 1 countries, y'know for statistics purposes 😄

[@Scheherasad]

I will vote for Luke (now he will get more votes from me than I already had planned)and Käärijä , both are my favorites for the win

[@eoinon]

i will be voting multiple times for serbia and latvia from ireland :))

[@existence5964]

I'll be voting for you and Portugal, from 🇮🇪

[@ESCTom]

dont worry, im voting for Luke

[@nilstons8334]

They should have kept the randomly selected running order. It was the Swede, and producer for many ESC finals, who introduced this. His name is Christer Bjorkmann - Have you noticed that Sweden has never had one of the unfavorably spots? - The same person, introduced the new voting system, with juries. This system has been practised in Sweden already…. Why on earth, should a few people, over rule peoples opinion? I.e, if it wasn’t for Bjorkmann, Norway would have won the ESC in 2019, by a land slide.

[@EmoBearRights]

Or it could because random running orders made a mess of things in Baku with a glut of ballads at the start that helped neither those artists or the show. Also my fav song of 2011 was Love in Rewind which ended up in early slots for both it's semi and the final which did not do it any favours whatsoever. I hear you but running orders are never going to be entirely fair however you determine them.

[@TH2714]

Strongly disagree. I don't want a boring ballad like UK 2012 (I think) to open the GF ever again.

[@svetlanavukovic8046]

Honestly, I'm so tired of ESC producers doing my country dirty... Why number 3 AGAIN? Now I'm really scared if Luke can qualify or not, especially seeing people in the comments saying very often that he can be a shock NQ. Hate to even think of it 🥺By the way, Serbia has been nr 3 in the semi final 3 out of 5 times for the last 5 years. The other two, we've been nr 9 both times. Not very fair, tbh. BUT, what gives me hope, is that Samo Mi Se Spava is mainly a televote pleaser, so if we can't qualify that way, where the juries can only burry us even further, then this is just not our year. Looked into the televote statistics of ballads from last year, barely any of them qualified without being pushed by the juries. Hope is still alive😅

[@vesna1023]

Кад су песма и наступ добри нема везе који по реду наступао.Пролазимо сигурно,ако ништа друго наша дијаспора увек гласа што значи:Малта,Швајцарска,Шведска,Норвешка и незнам ко од директних финалиста+Хрватска

[@svetlanavukovic8046]

@@vesna1023 Daj Bože, nadam se naravno najboljem, ali uhvati me paranoja kada pomislim da nastupa toliko rano, a pred sam kraj idu najveći favoriti.

[@adamtideman4953]

Are Serbs worried they won't qualify? If you get a bad slot in the semi you're more likely to get a better one in the grand final like Konstrakta got last year.

[@vesna1023]

Ма не бринем ја за нас уопште.Ови јутјубери који сада говоре све нај о Констракти редом су прошле године у ово време били соооо воооорид абаут хрррр 😂

[@tead5675]

​@@vesna1023 Mislim da su nam povoljne i "big five" zemlje koje glasaju u prvom polufinalu: Nemačka, Italija i Francuska, ako se ne varam. I mislim da se Luke dovoljno istakao pesmom i nastupom, i da će do maja zablistati još jače... Možda bi trebalo fanovi malo više da se angažuju i podignu hajp na drugim društvenim mrežama, slabi smo ove godine u odnosu na prošlu, čini mi se. A pljuvači su jači, na žalost. Meni to privlači jaču negativnu energiju nego running order, koji mi zvuči kao čisto sujeverje 😂 Mislim da skoro da ni nema veze pod kojim brojem nastupaju. Fanovi i komentatori više razmišljaju o tome nego producenti festivala😂 Oni gledaju da izbalansiraju brže i spore pesme, i naprave dobru žurku. Čak ni o temama ne vode računa - Švajcarska i Hrvatska sa istom temom jedna do druge, 'We are one' na nekom random mestu, uz onakav slogan festivala, bezveze...

[@nathanhubball]

🇭🇷🇲🇩🇭🇷🇲🇩🇭🇷🇲🇩🥳

[@hith2re]

13:35 If you check who qualified from SF2 in 2012 from the 11th slot, it was in fact Loreen herself!

[@ESCTom]

😂😂😂 Shes single handedly carrying that slot

[@pahakuutti]

11 years ago.

[@Phantas43]

I'm thinking everyone's overthinking Croatia's chances... in fact I'd daresay their performance will put off more people than that it will draw ppl in, hence decreasing the amount of votes they might get. If we go with breaks after songs 5 and 10, Moldova should be pretty safe and Ireland's chances rise a little, but I'd be more inclined to say Czechia might be a shock NQ as well...

[@fuongv4894]

Ireland is going to bring a giant globe for sure

[@ESCTom]

Oh god 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@quota2.0]

I am super happy about Let 3 receiving the first half closing slot. ❤ This is probably the most optimistic that I have ever been about our chances to actually qualify to the finals. Fingers crossed for tractor squad to finally break that 4 year non qualification streak. 🤞🚜

[@seanmcmichael2551]

I think the organisers will position Let 3 immediately before a break (in the Grand Final too) to allow for dealing with mayhem 🚜🚜🚜🐊🚜🐊🚜🚜 Zero chance they won't qualify.... Will be right up there in televote along with the opening/finishing bangers plus Queen Loreen.

[@quota2.0]

@@seanmcmichael2551 I'm still not convinced 100% because sonically the song is still very jarring on a first listen (even for me who loves it now). But I am definitely more positive about this than the likes of Mia, Albina, Franka, Roko and even Nina who actually made the final.

[@seanmcmichael2551]

@@quota2.0 The 'jarring' is not an issue in my book, it will be seen as the chaos it's meant to be. My doubt is the repetition and slow build-up at the beginning... Mama kupila traktora. But the audience is not going to lose interest. In UK and Ireland we might call this a Marmite song. Those who like it, will LOVE it, and will vote. By the way, I felt sorry for Mia last year.. a schoolboy error to send such a pretty song 😢... Netherlands and Azerbaijan both have that issue this year, but I think Netherlands will complete the qualifying of 4 out of the final 5 timeslots in Semi 1.

[@ESCTom]

im looking forward to the chaos 🚜

[@andcar2544]

I really can't agree that Switzerland got a favourable spot, in fact I think they've basically locked in the NQs with this RO: Malta, Latvia, Ireland, Switzerland and Azerbaijan. Also, putting Loreen and giving Käärijä the pimp slot, it feels quite obvious that should Finland and Sweden fall in the same half in the final, the Swedes will get the better draw, in case there's any doubt on who's winning the whole thing.

[@saudade_saudade977]

I really hope that Switzerland qualifies

[@WannabeBackbencher]

I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I am worried a lot about Portugal. I don’t think their song is as memorable, but Mimicat is great, maybe her performance will shine through. I think Latvia’s in over Portugal, Moldova pulls a rabbit out of their hat again and Switzerland’s qualification streak is broken.

[@nian60]

Repost. I initially put where I had posted my prediction. But since that comment disappeared I'm leaving it out this time, just in case that was the problem. My result after the running order reveal. What I got correct, semi 1: 7 out of 15 slots right (3,4,7,8,11,14,15). Croatia being as late as possible.✅ Finland closing. ✅ Sweden getting 11th.✅ What I got wrong, semi 1: I thought Norway would not be opening. 8/15 slots. ☹ (Semi 2 predictions went badly so let's skip that).

[@ohbitxc9793]

I managed to predict Norway opening and Finland closing, as well as Israel in 9th. Must be nearly impossible to predict it all correctly !

[@ESCTom]

Oh yeah the amount of permutations is gigantic. You only need to get one wrong and then it messes up everything else so it's pretty much impossible

[@sadsadratatouille5984]

I actually think if the Netherlands goes through, Switzerland isn't. I feel like they have the same target audience who will vote for the one they like more out of the two, while Moldova is not sharing anything with anyone. I still stand by Moldova qualifying.

[@freshlypainted]

idk moldova can be sharing with finland for being crazy and czechia for being ethnic. i just don’t think all crazy and upbeat songs will make it especially since we have loads of them here. we only have azerbaijan, latvia, netherlands, switzerland with slow songs

[@samsmales3718]

It feels that they've ignored the odds and fan opinion and focused just on the songs and staging - maybe why there's good songs in "death slots" - which is probably the fairest way to do it 😅😅 But still gonna moan about Malta being given a harsh position 😅

[@betwixttales]

I've been looking at the numbers, and 2nd and 3rd place in the lineup have actually the same statistic. Since the semi-finals were introduced in 2004, 11 songs have qualified from both 2nd and 3rd slot each. So statistically speaking, 2nd and 3rd slot has the same success rate as far as qualifing goes. What's interesting then, is why it's only the 2nd slot that has the reputation of being the "dead slot".

[@ESCTom]

personally i dont include 2004-2007 when there was one semi cos the size of the semi is so big. just a personal preference

[@betwixttales]

@@ESCTom Oh, interesting. But yeah, the semi in 2007 was crazy!

[@mi-dt3ps]

Serbia alone fixing the statistics. We got 3rd time spot 3 in 5 years.

[@BestesBart]

Actually I got 6 places correct in my own prediction! I got 🇳🇴🇲🇹🇱🇻🇮🇱🇨🇿🇳🇱 correct 🙌

[@ESCTom]

🙌🏻 I looked back at my vid and i kept having some in the right place and then moving them out 😂

[@richarddirnberger1964]

Just a thing about the number 8 spots good result and why Switzerland may differ, you have to take in consideration that the years before it usually were more than 15 Countries in a Semi, so the number 8 spot is usually for the great songs drawn in the first half

[@ESCTom]

ah yes thats a good point.

[@Dashew]

Another great analysis video! Thanks Tom!

[@ESCTom]

Thanks dashew 🥰

[@rortegagc8981]

You are amazing Tom! I love yours Analyses, really impressive. Greetings from Gran Canaria. Raúl.

[@ESCTom]

Thank you Raul 🥰

[@martinjmcc1981]

If Switzerland put out Moldova with Marius Bear 2, I will believe the televote is off. Bops must go through with televote! Sorry boring songs! Malta qualifies, too, please!( I am wishing right enough...)

[@Xenia277]

I certainly not wishing for it but it would be pretty funny and shocking if Sweden wouldn‘t qualify. 😅 The running order didn‘t help much with my prediction though. I‘m still moving a lot of countries around atm.

[@nian60]

I am wishing for a Swedish NQ. I strongly doubt I will get my wish though.

[@TH2714]

I would not be against a Swedish NQ. And I definitely hope they don't win!

[@magneticvegetable7512]

It seems unfair that the size and complexity of staging puts pressure on the show producers to place songs in favourable places near a break or at the end.Being 2nd in the running order is the kiss of death so all you need to do is bring a big prop and there's no way the producers can put you there.Surely all entries should have the same time to set up and vacate the stage and if you can't get ready in the same time as everyone else it's too bad

[@ESCTom]

Well the prop needs to be so big that it can’t easily be taken off in 30 seconds. So Yea it’s posible. But keep in mind that your idea needs to be submitted and okayed by the producers. So you can submit something and they can refuse. It’s an expensive gamble to try and get a better slot that you might have gotten anyway

[@magneticvegetable7512]

@@ESCTom I think they should say no more often as the show running time is bloated enough and we don't need a repeat of Mika trying to adlib while they built a replica of Cape Canaveral for what seemed like hours.We all know that the producers would never say no to whatever version of Loreen's panini press Sweden will be bringing

[@leendertjanw7540]

I love your statistics and your analysis! Great work Tom 👏 Yes, it's going to be a great show from start to finish. We've really got two showstoppers at the end of both semis. I'll still be voting for number 5 and 4 probably. Of course I can't vote for 14, but this is indeed not a bad draw. Netherlands always stands out when I listen to all songs of this semi.

[@ESCTom]

yea this week ive been listening to NED and SWI the most. Im not sure who im voting for yet, its going to be Serbia and then the rest will be strategic

[@saetemusic]

I'm still hoping that Sweden doesn't qualify. For me, the song is so nothing that it didn't even deserve to win the MelFest

[@askafroan525]

it was def the best song from Melfest and it deserved to win! It's leagues above the rest. A certain qualifier in ESC semis too so go cry yourself a river if you don't like it.

[@Scheherasad]

Compared to Euphoria Tattoo is boring and I am sure many will compare it to Euphoria, she could end up like Dana International or Alexander Rybak

[@askafroan525]

@@Scheherasad i don't think so

[@nian60]

I don't think anything can stop Euphoria 2.0 from qualifying, sadly. What we can hope for is that not too many people vote for it in the final. It definitely does not deserve to win Eurovision.

[@sav0001]

@@Scheherasad No they won't, the casual audience which makes up the majority of votes in the final will not be comparing Loreen's song to a song she performed 11 years ago. They are not as obsessive as ESC fans

[@TheManInBlueFlames]

Bit confused why Ireland or Malta aren't headlining. First half confuses me but the second is okay. This semi final was ALWAYS gonna be a bloodbath. Also, why do I feel like Portugal will be the shock non-qualifier? Idk, I haven't seen people talking about it TOO much within and outside the Eurovision bubble.

[@ddraven3180]

For Portugal to be a surprise NQ it'd have to be a likley Q in the eyes of people, and it's a 50/50 at best

[@dannaylor8716]

I think the Netherlands is fine, they'll bring it and it will be beautiful 😍 The Malta and Latvia prayer circles need to start now, I will happily sacrifice Israel and Moldova for them 😅

[@judithatias4741]

don't do it 🤣🤣💗🇮🇱

[@timtilidim]

don’t be stupid 😂

[@ddraven3180]

Portugal is always low in the odds lol, it's the same every year. Just like how it's always the same countries every year getting good running order slots irregardless of the quality of their songs, some countries are just more equal than others to the EBU

[@ddraven3180]

If anything the ad breaks this year should be, at least in semi one, between songs 5/6 and songs 10/11, Loreen being 11 basically confirms it

[@ESCTom]

yea theres almost certainly one after 10

[@erinnadia0409]

I'm so tired of Serbia always been given a terrible slot. I so hope Luke still gets to the final 🦞

[@agnieszkakozowska4171]

I'm sorry. I think that Luke will be Q. Greetings from dark Poland.

[@johnny11415]

Interesting analysis as always. I am thinking however that with social media that you can listen to the songs well in advance is the running order so important? For sure a bad or great performance could make people change their minds, we'll see. 🥰

[@Scheherasad]

most viewers who watch ESC are not hardcore ESC fans, they do not search for the ESC songs on social media but want to vote nevertheless for their favorite song.

[@sav0001]

@@Scheherasad In the semifinals, its mostly the ESC fans voting. The majority of the general public don't even know they exist

[@esclad]

EVERY semi always has a shock non-qualifier. Who will it be in SF1? I'm gonna say it's a toss-up between Portugal or Czech.

[@ESCTom]

Yea there will definitely be some. Czechia, Portugal, even Serbia and Moldova would be shocks

[@nian60]

Portugal NQing wouldn't be a shock though. It's currently 11th in the betting odds.

[@Littlepip411]

I am really holding out hope for Portugal. Their song is amazing and the odds are getting me really worried

[@nian60]

Typically the odds only get 8 out of 10 songs correct.

[@ESCTom]

Yeah usually the odds right before the performance get eight or nine correct sometimes even 10. It depends at what time you look at them

[@adamtideman4953]

I would argue this running order might actually be bad news for Finland because it directly helps countries that could hurt Finlands chances of winning in the grand final i.e. jury-friendly songs like Netherlands, Switzerland and to some extent Latvia. Netherlands especially is a big winner with this running order. The running order in this semi doesn't matter for the Nordics chances of qualifying. They would've qualified from any position. However for Finland to win Eurovision they will need to do well enough with the juries to be within striking distance of beating Sweden because the televote won't be a problem for Finland. That's Finlands win condition and that's less likely to happen with countries like Netherlands and Switzerland in the mix. I could easily see several juries giving more points to Netherlands and Switzerland over Finland.The more jury-friendly songs like that in the grand final the more competition Finland will have for vital jury points. While I don't think the juries will bury Finland, I don't think it will be top 5 either. Cha Cha Cha did win the jury vote in UMK but it wasn't convincing and the competition for jury points will be tough. I predict Finland to be around where Ukraine was with the juries last year. And you said Finland might gain momentum after the semis which could cause the odds to change. Well, if Sweden gets a good draw in the grand final while Finland gets a bad one that would completely negate any advantage Finland had in the semi. Again, the running order in the semis doesn't matter for either Swedens or Finlands chances of qualifying but the running order in the final will be significant for their chances of winning.

[@nian60]

I suspected Finland would be put last in the semi to give casual people less time to decide to vote for him. The organisers will most likely put him in slot 1 if he draws the first half, in order to put him as far away from Loreen as possible. Then he gets less televotes and Loreen wins. Norway first and Finland last in the semi was to minimise their votes, and maximise Loreen's votes. Make no mistake, the producers will do everything they can to trip Käärijä up. 😞

[@ESCTom]

I see the point that you are trying to make, but i think that SWI and NED going through also affects Loreen as well. If Loreen is winning a jury vote and then NED and SWI are next and then FIN are lower down, then year those buffer countries will affect him. but the reverse can happen too

[@eledile8766]

Loreen had slot 11 back in 2012, so she’s probably euphoric to have it back

[@ESCTom]

She'll need to get "slot 11" tattooed on her back

[@nilstons8334]

Courtesy: Swede, Christer Bjorkmann.

[@miguelnvsamorim]

I really enjoy your analysis. I just can't help my self from feeling some favouritism towards the Netherlands. Burning Lights gets a lot of advantage at 14th place.

[@karleduard7725]

Switch Switzerland and Netherlands and i get all the second half correct haha

[@ESCTom]

ah nice!

[@RickyPro888]

I don’t think 11th in the RO is that bad though. If you remember last year both Croatia and North Macedonia almost shock qualified from that spot

[@sarahenchanted]

whoever came up with croatia and switzerland being back to back is a huge troll lol both running orders tell me the producers are trying to get one step ahead of us and "prove" certain running orders don't mean you're dead on arrival and vice versa (ie Armenia going second in semi 2)

[@ESCTom]

Yeah I do get a sense of that this year as well. I bet also that delegations are complaining behind-the-scenes if they are given a "bad running order"

[@bbubbinklm4320]

I think as a fandom we obsess with the running order far too much hahah

[@ESCTom]

There's not much else to talk about between mid March and the start of May 😅

[@ceciliacampbell4656]

I’m surprised there’s such big expectations for Moldova to do well considering how similar it sounds to France’s song from last year which didn’t do amazing with the public…

[@neconeconeco]

fulenn had two other modern ethnic songs to compete with that year and had a pretty unfortunate live show, but it's a valid concern.

[@drjulietburke]

Europeans punished France for not sending a "French" song. Moldova does ethnic sounds often so they will be rewarded

[@sixtiessyl]

I have a feeling Czechia and/or Israel and/or Portugal will be surprise NQs. And Malta will be the surprise qualifier

[@ddraven3180]

What's surprise NQ about Portugal? They're a 50/50 at best as is lol

[@drjulietburke]

Yay finally someone else that thinks Malta will shock everyone and qualify. We should be besties :p xD

[@inesvbm1]

Why is add break after song 6 and not 5? Considering 15 songs and two add breaks. Wouldn’t it would make more sense to make them between 5/6 and between 10/11?

[@ESCTom]

yea 5/6 and 10/11 is the most likely

[@EmoBearRights]

It's going to break my heart if Moldova don't qualify.

[@gaber1346]

My money’s on an add break between 7 and 8 they need a lot of time between rockets and tractors and Sasha Jean Baptiste 😅

[@fervanhier]

I am loving your analyses

[@ESCTom]

Hey Fervan, yea i did consider that but already the sample size is quite small, so if you further only look at semis with 15, then it becomes too small. one possibility is to look at each slot instead as Last / Second last / Third last etc, i might do that in the future, but right now im working on the semis if they were televote only

[@fervanhier]

@@ESCTom Definitely get that! Thanks for answering! Can't wait for your televote only data!! Best of luck sifting through all that! 🫶🫶

[@christianj5950]

I know Norway will qualify from any spot, but I'm super worried that them being so early means that it won't get as many points as they could, and this will be used as an excuse by producers to put them early in the final (in whichever half) as well. Televoters are extremely biased when it comes to running order and if Norway underperforms after being so much earlier than Sweden and Finland, the producers may not consider it as strong of a favorite as it really is. Of course there's also the argument that opening the show means the producers will almost be forced to put them later in whichever half, but that hasnt always been the case. I just pray they draw 2nd half in the final, they deserve it after both the other major favorites this semi (Sweden and Finland) drew 2nd half here.

[@budigunawan5624]

This is shaping up to be The Nordics vs The Big 5. My theory (based on the occult) Norway - opening SF1 Denmark - opening SF2 (likely NQ) Iceland - SF2 7th (borderline NQ) Sweden - SF1 11th Finland - closing SF1 7/11 LOL So Sweden wins since it's the only country that hasn't been in the opening or closing.

[@mr_zannettos6780]

My reading would be less ''lucky slot no. 4'' and more ''time for slot no. 4 failure after all this back to back success'' hihihi.

[@patrickmackin2941]

My 5 NQ are Malta, Ireland az, Croatia and my surprise NQ is the Netherlands

[@Saturinus]

My prediction: 1. 🇫🇮 2. 🇸🇪 3. 🇳🇴 4. 🇮🇱 5. 🇵🇹 6. 🇷🇸 7. 🇨🇿 8. 🇨🇭 9. 🇲🇩 10. 🇲🇹 ---------- 11. 🇳🇱 12. 🇭🇷 13. 🇱🇻 14. 🇦🇿 15. 🇮🇪

[@sushigirl1069]

Ireland's ESC entry is very average 😢

[@nian60]

I posted my prediction but it's gone. Guess it wasn't valued then.

[@ESCTom]

I would never delete your posts mate. Posts getting deleted can happen with KZbin sometimes. When I get home I’ll have a look for it. Sometimes posts also get held back for moderation if they have a link in them

[@ESCTom]

@nian60 i checked and there was nothing held for review. Sometimes if you have a dodgy connection while you send a comment, KZbin just deletes it. I have had that happen a lot of times to me here when writing replies to people which has driven me crazy sometimes. that is why i have a habit now of ALWAYS copying long comments before i try to post them, because its happened to me so often.

[@nian60]

@@ESCTom OK, thanks. I will attempt to repost it then.

[@pahakuutti]

Wonder why they put 2 anti war songs back to back as 7th and 8th.

[@ChrisStevens6]

Can we order those magnets from somewhere? 😍

[@ESCTom]

I got them from China

[@vveles]

Shockers all around. I can definitely see why having a random running order is bad. 🙄 I don't know if I should file this under "wow, look where the Netherlands' 'color scheme' has landed them" or "wise Hungarians and Slovaks pointing and heartily snort-laughing at everyone foolishly wasting their money on being treated as filler between the 'true' participants". Stay classy, EBU. Stay classy.🤣

[@sergey.m5526]

Moldova out, Switzerland in 💀. Switzerland have it worse performing before Israel, Moldova and Sweden together so I think you've got that wrong

[@nv2605]

Wait what happened with France?

[@ESCTom]

theyre automatic qualifiers

[@nv2605]

@@ESCTom aaaaa yes I forgot 🤦‍♀️

[@alipanroosendaal9503]

I'm not happy for Croatia to get a favourable slot to break their NQ record. Why? In future, any country in that predicament will also simply select a noisy messy daft song.

[@gamerexbruno]

Portugal will certainly pass. Screw the bets. (I apologize for the term)

[@ashleyw6728]

Let 3 best get there arse out

[@alioth7403]

I like Ireland way more than Latvia. Ireland is good. I hope they qualify.

[@stevenkendall3092]

Is there any rule that the performance has to be on the official stage? Why can't Sweden's be aired from the back somewhere in the arena - taking last year's Armenia concept to an extreme. For Loreen's song to create the otherworldly feel I think the audience noise is actually a distraction. Or would be seen as an unfair advantage to the other acts. My idea gets rid of the screen weight issue and set-up time constraints.

[@tead5675]

Maybe she should compete with herself, since she is so obviously better and so special that she should even be provided with a separate stage. Of course that wouldn't be fair, come on! That masterpiece needs silence, tell me more about it😂

[@ddraven3180]

You're not the brightest are you

[@gabesalgado789]

After seeing this running order, here is my final pre-rehearsal prediction: 🇸🇪 Sweden 🇫🇮 Finland 🇮🇱 Israel 🇳🇴 Norway 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 🇭🇷 Croatia 🇵🇹 Portugal 🇷🇸 Serbia 🇲🇩 Moldova 🇳🇱 Netherlands Both Moldova and Switzerland are placed between juggernauts, but Moldova is the stronger and more memorable song in my opinion. Moldova is also higher in the community app, and remember there is no jury. Coincidentally I think this is the same list as your initial prediction haha

[@ESCTom]

haha yep it is 😅

[@gilmourattard3625]

Switzerland will qualify over Portugal

[@user-bm9bx4cz8f]

ISRAEL SLAYED 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱

[@aquaxvy45]

My prediction: 1. Sweden 2. Finland 3. Israel 4. Norway 5. Czech Republic 6. Croatia 7. Switzerland 8. Netherlands 9. Portugal 10. Moldova 11. Serbia 12. Malta 13. Latvia 14. Ireland 15. Azerbaijan Even though I love serbia's song i don't see it qualifying for some reason I would love to see my country malta qualify but it doesn't do well in televote, especially in a semi-final like this Both Azerbaijan and Moldova are sandwiched between the strong countries but I still see Moldova qualifying

[@AntonioR05]

I think Serbia is going to flop cus i fell like they dont have a good stage,if they did they would never be after Malta who is going to have milion props.Idk if that makes sense 😭 The biggest shock was Croatia being so late i was thinking 4

[@ESCTom]

tbh as long as you can get the props off the stage in 25 seconds, then it's ok. I think Malta will have some, but i think they can just put them on wheels and wheel them off quickly. I think Luke will use the dancers like he did in PZE, so that takes no time to set up

[@mnjk1558]

I heard that Serbia has big budget for their ESC stag. But we'll see.

[@zvezda553]

I’m bummed about Serbia’s position:/ same as last year, but hey, we made it work! He’ll use the same four dancers, they’ll rework the choreography and he’ll(supposedly) upgrade the staging. He said he had big plans and that the broadcaster agreed with everything he asked for …

[@sanjaa.2396]

@@mnjk1558 Yes, they do. Konstrakta basically didn’t use any money last year. She just needed towels, basin, actors who were her friends and not real dancers. She did what she always does anyways so RTS said they are really standing behind Luke and will support his team.

[@misshippeia]

RTS has big budget, don’t worry for the staging. Konstrakta made it with minimum funds, because it was art.

[@trao1938]

I predict Portugal will be surprise non-qualifier.

[@serendipity3388]

Hope you’re wrong, we need them in the final

[@ddraven3180]

What would be a surprise about that?

[@drjulietburke]

In what universe is Portugal a sure qualifier?