Sergei Guriev on the political economy of Putin’s war in Ukraine: Global Economy Lecture 2023

Russian economist Sergei Guriev on the economic impact of Putin's war against Ukraine and its consequences for the world.
Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/gurie...
A summary of Sergei Guriev's lecture is available here: wiiw.ac.at/n-587.html
#russiaukrainewar #russia #ukraine #ukrainewar #economics
Video edited by Iulia Anamaria Barta
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The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) is Vienna-based policy think tank with a focus on Central, East, and Southeast Europe. We conduct research on international economics, deliver macroeconomic forecasts, comment the ongoing events, collect statistical data, and organize events to discuss policy-related questions.
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[@siegfried182005]

It is nice, because you can see the whole projection screen:)

[@Sir_Godz]

its not like data is essential to this topic

[@WiiwAcAt]

Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@pagarb]

It would've been better if the charts could have been seen when he was talking about them..

[@WiiwAcAt]

Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@valentinann7823]

Excellent questions, informative answers. Thanks for posting this presentation and making it available for broad audience!

[@christiangeiselmann]

Thanks for video-taping the lecture. But you should learn to display the slides when the lecturer refers to them.

[@rossmurray6849]

At 1:24:40, Mr Guriev said, "In May, I wrote an op-ed for The Economist..." The Economist just happens to be the only news source I trust enough to read regularly. In its latest edition, 3rd February, it had a lengthy piece giving reasons to believe the price caps on Russian energy exports were not producing the desired outcome. That's quite different to what Mr Guriev said in his presentation. I don't know what to think now.

[@daniell.staetsky3110]

I will tell you something. All manner of dissidents and Putin haters talk at us non stop. They may well be stellar in their line of business. And their grievances may be justified. But - because of how affected and bitter they are- they cannot offer analysis. Full stop . End of story. Right the last page.

[@charlytaylor1748]

This guy went to Luhansk - you may find it interesting kzbin.info/www/bejne/eGHMYa2Yqqh8f68&ab_channel=BritannicaPolitica

[@VangelVe]

Correct. The evidence shows that the price caps and sanctions did not do what the politicians expected.

[@voya8480]

Read todaysnews. Putin cut export of oil.

[@Driver-ur9mf]

Oh dear, feel like you have been misled, or lied to? Tsk tsk, is Putin not playing well with the NWO? As long as you listen to those who spin the situation as an invasion, rather than listen to how it was explained, a liberation of his people, You chose your side. Choices have consequences.

[@georgechirayus4865]

Very interesting talk. Such a shame that the wide shot doesn’t include the full presentation screen the speaker refers to. Worth noting for the future.

[@WiiwAcAt]

Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@ibikic]

Did they answer why goverment was removed in 2014th in Ucraine, and why is Minsk agreement rejected to respect? Also why does US occupy Siria oil teritorry?

[@peternewman7940]

You raise some good points! The removal of a democratically elected government in Kyiv is rarely addressed in Western news media. I remember the murder of democratically elected Allende in Chile. Was that the CIA too? Remember how the Americans supported the Pinochet dictatorship? And Suharto's genocide in Indonesia. Half a million of his political opposition murdered - with American assistance and encouragement. Syria is a quagmire of competing interests. They have had a particularly rough ride. And Minsk? We in the West are simply never told why the agreements failed.

[@Somebody_else_u_know]

Thank you for the information!🤝

[@wingedpearloyster]

This was brilliant. We need to have this kind of information in order to get a better grasp of what's happening. Thanks very much!

[@usernwn7qe]

Absolutely brilliant and unbiased, just badmouth every political opponent of the west and skip all other western friendly tyrants. That´ll guarantee you a career in our education system for sure.

[@ennediend2865]

Fully agreed 👍

[@igawiga4452]

As always, an excellent speech from Dr Guriev I used to attend his talks at the LSE events , he is extremely knowledgeable researcher and his curriculum speaks for itself

[@mustno3]

Thak you for this great talk.

[@AndyT-np8mm]

And what if decoupling is the goal?

[@aclvaz]

I just love how economists explain everything after the fact. lots of assumptions and the major one is thinking that Putin is only just looking at his power and public support readings. what if is looking at Russia's future, and not only him but a big part of the leading team that supports him?

[@pleasantturtle2799]

Game theorists can’t calculate such variables so they act like such things don’t exist.

[@stevenmaritz2681]

He's a political scientist.

[@charlytaylor1748]

"if you laid all the economists in the world end to end they still wouldn't reach a conclusion"

[@carlabroderick5508]

Russia’s future is no longer in the equation because the loss of this war, even the revelation of Russia’s weakness due to the effect of corruption on its military, has damaged Russia’s future indefinitely.

[@aclvaz]

@@carlabroderick5508 it has revealed more the unpreparedness of NATO for real combat and the inadequacy of the private military sector to provide the necessary weapons and at reasonable costs. it has also shown other countries that they cannot trust on the USD for currency and wealth reserves

[@Sunny-jr8kb]

Thank you sir for such a wonderful knowledge and that to free of cost.

[@Claudia-yd3dd]

Please show the slides with the graphs

[@WiiwAcAt]

Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@yossarianmnichols9641]

I am impressed by his speed of lecture in a language that is not his native language. He doesn't seem to need notes very much.

[@AlexdaCunha]

I would like to look at the data that supports the prediction that Russian economy will grow in 2024 with such a small fall in 2023

Sounds like a good lecture, but where are the graphs Guriev is referring too?

[@WiiwAcAt]

Thank you for the comment, you can download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@milanciga]

Can you also do a video about NATO invading Serbia and anexing its midle-age province Kosovo?

[@richardfarmbrough2335]

Looks interesting, but it's too quiet.

[@antonioflores4936]

Surprisingly this economic and political picture looks like a mirror image of USA’s problems and strategy for coping with their economic problem

[@rokiev8397]

Guriev is rock star in question of sanctions

[@AlphaPOTUS]

1:08:27 Please share your thoughts here by replying to this comment.

[@rubainijubil6338]

iMf said Russia economy is growth..

[@usernwn7qe]

Growth for RU is 0.3% but it will unavoidably drop this or next year. Still Russia did very strong outperforming all predictions (8-12% drop).

[@longandshort6639]

Only because they stupidly adopt the numbers published by the RuZZians which are all lies.

[@shramshram4137]

Thank you, Sergey

[@paulbadics3500]

Russia doesnt need chinese military support.

[@walterbo7687]

Well... It needs Iranian support, north corea support

[@eumefmeauh6193]

Like!

[@seadog8807]

What a fantastic speaker, a truly impressive breadth and depth of knowledge and some excellent and insightful questions posed at the end of the main presentation. Thank you for posting this 👍👍

[@_mimika_]

Да, фантазия у него действительно выдающаяся.... Столько всего придумал😄

[@seadog8807]

@@_mimika_ Well, based on the official Kremlin figures released yesterday, I guess it won’t take that long to see who is right, and who is wrong here…… 🙈🙈

[@_mimika_]

@@seadog8807 я указываю на конкретные аргументы, озвученные в начале, которые на самом деле ложные. Ну а на них выстраивается повествование. Не могу слушать и верить тому, кто врёт в самом начале своего выступления. И не раз. Очень легко проверить его слова☺️

[@seadog8807]

@@andrei6267 What an incisively balanced and well weighted counterpoint, I congratulate you on your excellent contribution 👏👏

[@seadog8807]

@@andrei6267 It’s impossible to have a balanced counterpoint you say…. Guess we’ll just have to disagree on that. But thanks again for your contributions 👏👏

[@jessiejb4684]

The west is so united that the u.s. blew up germanys energy security.

[@patrickdonohue530]

It is called “Burning the Bridge” so there is no going back.

[@richardsimms251]

Again, what a great discussion with a very credible academic. RS. Canada

[@AtlasGaming4k]

Great job not having a camera on the screen in a lecture where the speaker constantly refers to charts… fail

[@WiiwAcAt]

Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@KarlFullerNZ]

Very good talk on the reasons why the war started. Thank you!

[@holger3943]

Did he mention Vicky Nudelman, the Maidan coup, and the civil war started by the US backed Kiev regime?

[@rudyschenker]

Introductions are just long enough to take a short nap.

[@Deadpoolion]

It's funny how the loss of the Russian market for Western firms that exported goods worth 400 billion a year is presented as an achievement

[@DrDonnyTheBookofYou]

This!!!!!!!

[@paulbadics3500]

Good point..must have impact on germany & eastern europe but media wont admit it

[@ekesandras1481]

we can live withouth them, let's see if they can also live without us.

[@username7777771]

Lol, what will we do if we can't sell toilets and washing machines to Moscow???? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@DarkRoomAmbience]

Wow 400 billion sounds like a lot, considering Russia's total imports were around 250 billion in total before the war. Russia is a tiny market for exporters, they are a poor nation, with a small economy.

[@asgerjrgensen1414]

Very difficult to understand when you see what they are talking about.

[@Joelmonterrey]

This is excellent. Very clear, comprehensive.

[@paoloperrucchini8207]

too ideologic ... very funny the fact that he really seem to think that UE is democratic

[@carlabroderick5508]

Tell us who is more democratic. Or are you referring to the EU customs Union somehow being undemocratic?

[@bsh819]

United Emirates?

[@Deadpoolion]

An unsubstantiated theory about tyrants, for example, it is mentioned that they do not change the regime, but there is an example of Chiang Kai-shek and Francisco Franco who were very radical and bloody, but switched to democratic peacefully transferring power. Also an example of the same South Korea where a bunch of military dictators led to democracy.

[@Filisteu1900]

Franco didn't change the regime in anything, neither did Chiang Kai-shek, they died.. This autoritarian regimes are build around one person, the dictator, when they die the regimes can fall soon after.. there is not a change, they ended when the dictator dies or gets overthrown.

[@Deadpoolion]

@@Filisteu1900 Franco voluntarily resigned from his post 2 years before his death. It was he who chose Prince Juan Carlos as his successor. The King of Spain Juan Carlos I completed the process of turning the country from an authoritarian to a democratic one (yes, after the death of Franco), but it is obvious that the regime does not change overnight and there was preparation for this. Yes, Chiang Kai-shek ruled to death, but if you look at the history in detail, his regime, which at the beginning mass-shot dissenting people on the streets, softened and drifted into democracy. In his political testament, Chiang Kai-shek urged his compatriots to continue to implement Sun Yat-sen's three people's principles: to strive for the recovery and restoration of mainland China, to revive national culture, and to vigorously defend democracy. Yes, He transferred power to his son, but he did not turn Taiwan into North Korea, where the monarchy was actually restored. Jiang Jingguo In 1987, martial law was lifted and Taiwan's politics took a democratic path. Taiwan's economy has developed successfully. Jiang Jingguo had a reputation for being an honest politician. Under his administration, "Ten big construction projects" began. Jiang Jingguo paid great attention to Taiwan's economic growth.

[@loic-6862]

@@Deadpoolion the three principles of Sun Yat Sen were : minzu, minquan and minsheng. Minzu : independence for the chinese people internally and externally, by chinese he meant Han. The Qing were Manchus and he saw them as internal usurpers. External independence meant for him to be strong enough to fight imperial powers and to command as much respect as they did. Minquan referred to democratic rights for the people. Minsheng meant welfare, his explicitly stated model was democratic socialism. Sun Yat Sen died in 1911, 38 years before the KMT flew to Taiwan. Why would he talk about “mainland”? Chiang Kai Shek cared for none of those during his lifetime. This is what matters, not what he wrote on his deathbed. His son, great man. Nothing bad to say about him, strong legacy in general.

[@Deadpoolion]

@@loic-6862 At the beginning I wrote that they are bloody authoritarian dictators, I did not justify them. I argue with the argument that authoritarian tyrannies do not change without revolutionary or outside intervention. To make it easier There is also the example of SINGAPORE and Lee Kuan Yew. He is also an authoritarian ruler who ruled the country for 30 years, who peacefully democratized and transferred power.

[@VangelVe]

The problem is that he is speculating about the future in the same way as was speculated last year. Russia did fine, given that it was the most sanctioned country in history. It has an industrial base and all the materials it needs to grow. If LG pulls out of the market in Russia, plenty of Russian and Chinese companies can step in and take its market share. Some sanctions were a boost to domestic producers. And who cares what the IMF is forecasting? The 2014 coup took place because the IMF wanted Ukraine to increase gas prices by 40%, but the elected government balked at the political and economic costs and went with Putin's offer instead. The coup was funded by Western countries and has come back to hurt them badly. Germany is deindustrializing, and the middle class in Europe is getting slaughtered as costs are rising much faster than their wages when their pension and healthcare systems face insolvency. The Eurozone is looking at a Debt/GDP ratio of 80%, while the Russian ratio is under 20%. Russia holds no certificates of confiscation in the form of USTs and has diversified into bullion that will be used as the basis of intercountry trade settlement. This presentation looks like wishful thinking.

[@macster1000]

Great Session!😊

[@puckluck2357]

Great lecture, I love the concept of polling the popularity within a repressive regime. Brilliant

[@richardsimms251]

Wonderful quality talk in keeping with other scholars not living in Russia, or employed by Russian institutions or universities. Excellent

[@johngame2119]

There would be nothing but propaganda from scholars based in Russia or Russian institutions. Unless of course they fancied an impromptu flight out of a window or poisoning.

[@funnstarbloggest7124]

When western countries bombed other countries no Europeans talked about humanity. Now lecturing others

[@walterbo7687]

They did. You were not born or sucking your mum breast so you don't know

[@bsh819]

Sure they did, lel

[@pagarb]

The most brilliant and sophisticated analysis of the situation in Russia and what happen, what Putin might do, and what are the many possible outcomes and their effect on an extremely complex and nuanced situation that's laced with so much uncertainty

[@michalrudis2578]

@@andrei6267 It was just pure western propaganda claim back then to support the help efforts for UKR. What else would you expect from anti-Putin influential russian economist, that sees the long term implications of such massive sanctions destroying his own country? I would have said the same if I wanted to encourage the western society to make the move to massively support UKR which obviously will cost tons of money and to discourage any potential Putin ally from supporting him, because he might be out of power soon. Anyway I'm quite sure that the sanctions will bite and the russian economy will eventually collapse, sooner or later. I personally feel very sorry for the ukrainians and also for ordinary russians, who cant do anything about it, unless they start starving in huge numbers and the massive anti-Putin movement starts, that can't be covered up by the propaganda anymore. Peace from Czech Republic :)

[@MT-ok9xv]

@@michalrudis3519 They have 700,000 thousand troops on Ukraine for an offensive. It is already over. NKK report claims Biden offered Putin 20% of Ukraine in January. BRICS is stronger. Russias economy is growing in 2023.

[@PoisonelleMisty4311]

“After all, a woman who doesn't love cats is never going to be make a man happy.” ― Orhan Pamuk, The Museum of Innocence

[@yossarianmnichols9641]

No way will Russia pay reparations.

[@nikolazuzic]

Never.

[@walterbo7687]

It's like Trump wall that was to be paid by Mexico

[@bsh819]

Everyone will take a bite out of Russia for their reparations. First Ukraine... then Georgia, then on down the list. The Rus will be back to their 18th century borders and everyone will be happier.

[@nikolazuzic]

@@bsh819Ukrajina is Russia ,usa must be desolated

[@TomTabaczynski]

All the politically correct talking points. Why do you need a PhD for this?

[@ulfsoderberg2581]

Dont listen to this. If you do , you would not get anyting right.

[@felipe-vibor]

What i don't understand is how do dictators are so popular in their countries? Or maybe i should ask what is the definition of dictatorship because i think there are other definitions out there. A dictator is brutal and cant be popular.

[@antonyfrancis3247]

Why would Russia, with energy sector contributing towards 21% of GDP, follow the South Korea model of growth?

[@tonygold1661]

An excellent talk by Sergei Guriev. Thank you.

[@jmbpaz]

All risk is worth it for a new multi polar world my dear

[@username7777771]

The crazy thing is the US sits in a stronger position than before the war started. So far, the only winner here is the USA. So, thanks Putin??? 😊

[@stephenbuck1280]

So you want to live in a dictatorship like China or Russia😮 China has imprisoned 1,000,000 people due to their religious beliefs and Russia is highly corrupt and economically uneven country where a few are very rich and the poor are very poor.

[@walterbo7687]

So go and fight on the front line

[@colettescobie1878]

Grocery inflation in Ireland 16.4% today as opposed to 2% 12 months ago. Electric prices gone up by 100%

[@alexandertumarkin5343]

The same thing, even worse. With the basic difference: besides the economic struggles, our people are being killed by russian occupants.

[@kyhber1]

Brilliant 👌..Now that's an expert in his field .

[@user-ii1bw4rk4z]

Speaking about Putin in this tone, he wants to rise, but in fact politics is a much more complex thing than economics and he is simply unable to comprehend the scale of this personality. Time will tell everything.

[@ekesandras1481]

actually politics is much more simple than economics.

[@anthonykenny1320]

was it really so difficult for the camera to move up a bit to take in the graphs almost made the talk pointless

[@WiiwAcAt]

Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@petermann7131]

Nice lecture, but like all forecasts, assumptions and inputs dictate predictions. Some used here have been demonstrated to not be correct both methodologically and factually. ...but that's economics, it's not a science.

[@peternewman7940]

Economics is very much a science. But like all good scientists, economists must sometimes quantify things that are not countable. What is wrong with that? All social statistics do that.

[@DRArthur]

🎉

[@maxotaurus5140]

We're just financing the debt? The Putin 350 billion frozen would pay it off.

[@qatestmit]

You mean the lost £350 billion the EU cannot find.

[@maxotaurus5140]

@@qatestmit If it is gone, good 😊 👍 F Putin

[@LeutnantJoker]

11 minutes of useless intro. When will organizers finally understand that people want to listen to the invited speaker, not you

[@bisin87]

Skip to 11:13

[@margaretgoodheart4167]

Title more accurately should be "NATO's War Against Russia".

[@Bebe-ch8zk]

Good one Margaret, sike! Let's try this one "Russia is annoyed with NATO so they go and invavde Ukraine"

[@user-ii1bw4rk4z]

You are not only goodheart, but openmind).

[@scorpio9420]

Yes, furthermore NATO=The USA.

[@spiderone4]

@Adriano Celentano Why I can't see @Scorpio comment but I can see yours. "Putin was obviously worried that Ukraine could become a succesful democracy" Lol big lol after coup in 2014 first thing new democratic government did is to ban 2 political parties that had ~60-70 voter base.

[@walterbo7687]

Russia against the free world

[@paulbadics3500]

"Spin dictators" sounds a lot like US Canada Australia EU during covid & after

[@walterbo7687]

And you're still alive ...

[@JRBendixen]

One of the greatest things about this man is, he is shy of saying he does not know the answer to a question.

[@AndyT-np8mm]

shy or not shy?

[@leonidragozin2247]

In other words he's arrogant.

[@fearhungerpride]

The talk was fine, but it would have been great to see the slides that the speaker was referring to. Whoever was producing this needs to lift their game.

[@WiiwAcAt]

Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@johnaguirre9196]

US/Nato's war.

[@walterbo7687]

Russia war

[@dongye3645]

👍👍👍 very good lecture, , , a funny professor is always appreciated, , , otherwise i fall in sleep in class 😄😄😄

[@rkmenescal]

I had a laugh when he mentioned "eco-chamber" as if he is not trapped into one. Never underestimate the power of denial.

[@walterbo7687]

Talking to a mirror 😂😂😂

[@hujintao6862]

This is a real, high level lecture by a competent academic.

[@jmbpaz]

No, this guy has a HUGE ax to grind, also, he's total believer in liberal democracy and thinks free markets work. So no, he's trying to be more western than than the westerners.

[@barissavas4027]

@@jmbpaz true

[@alexandralexeev6057]

I am really proud that Sergei is russian, because people can see that we have liberal and educated people. And he shows that Russia has a chance to change and to be a democratic country

[@constantquestioning4010]

A Russia traitor betraying his motherland is an odd spectacle, a feeble mind spinning lies according to the neocon tune to satisfy Western audience. Vague simplistic opiniated misguided. He sounds uneasy. Distrust his biased analysis from start to finish. « EU is stronger than it was. » Such a denial of reality. Quite obvious that sanctions are not working, it is clear for all to see. Europe in recession, Russia developing fast a new future in a multipolar world order. The US must pay him lots.

[@nuurnwui]

Fir enough

[@303pools2]

Russia is a democratic country a lot more democracy than anywhere else that’s for sure

[@leonidragozin2247]

And I really despise his heavy accent and minuscule vocabulary. A renegade who didn't even take full advantage of his treason!

[@Overlord734]

@@leonidragozin2247 go away, rusnya, there is no vodka here.

[@asbu5716]

Great talk.

[@zadadazadada4298]

Very informative, awesome presentation.

[@janslodicka9020]

Terrible camera, sorry

[@bjrnhjjakobsen2174]

The Russian fiscal 2023 budget is based on a oil price of USD 72.(actual price is 50). The deficit will eliminate the “special savings account” by June/July.

[@nikolazuzic]

Yeah,you wish

[@nikitamuller1579]

​@russiantroll9717keep coping. Its gonna be even lower.

[@richardcory5024]

Sergei Guriev forgot to mention that the oil and gas no longer purchased by the West cannot be transported in any significant amounts to other markets. The logistics simply do not make this possible.

[@stevenmaritz2681]

He did price cap on oil sales to external buyers, shipping insurance premium increases to increase costs.

[@richardcory5024]

@@stevenmaritz2681 The Russians said they would not abide by the price cap on oil by maritime transport but they have no choice.

[@paulbadics3500]

Not so sure..turks & indians figuring things out very quickly & china has already been building pipelinea

[@richardcory5024]

@@paulbadics3500 There is no way on earth that the Chinese will pay the absolutely staggering cost and decade long work for thousands of miles of pipelines thorough virgin, uninhabited territory when they can continue to get fairly modest amounts of Russian oil at a huge discount and source all the oil they want from the rest of the world. The Chinese are not stupid, and neither are the Indians. There are no free rides for the Russians anymore.

[@paulbadics3500]

@@richardcory5024 while it wont be easy for Russia to replace european buyers with asian ones quickly the transition has been well underway for several years & progressing at a fast pace...nat gas pipeline exports from russia to china already huge & will double by 2025 & again by 2025 & more Oil pipelines in the world , in meantime shipping LNG, Crude & refined products from arctic to pacific & through turkey & central to India..china & india big winners buying discounted oil & gas from russia while western economies suffer high prices & inflation..russian indian & chinese energy & shipping companies making a killing & lots of product being diverted to avoid sanctions & price caps

[@sambassil7825]

Thank you, great presentation, do you think Putin will be allowed to use nuclear weapons to save his regime?

[@antoniomarsicola8608]

A great explanation

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Russia annexed Crimea in 1783, the West appears to never have noticed? Tennyson may have mentioned it in poem, about the Light Brigade...... But the economy of Crimea has been as tied to Moscow, as San Diego is to Washington DC. The eternal effort to exploit Russian Resources is evident and harmful.

[@DavidSmith-yi8ou]

@@andrei6267 wrong. Russia occupied Crimea in 2014.

[@DavidSmith-yi8ou]

@@andrei6267 keep trying to justify the war why don’t you.

[@DavidSmith-yi8ou]

@@politichia6820 like retreating from Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson… like that real world?

[@DavidSmith-yi8ou]

@@politichia6820 you’ve been watching RT haven’t you.

[@DavidSmith-yi8ou]

@@andrei6267 you mean that piece of Ukraine Russia annexed illegally in 2014?. Hypocrite.

[@pulmo1]

Well done.

[@bouloshijazin5129]

Interesting drivel

[@maggiemay3520]

The speaker lives in a dream world😴

[@davidfrommer587]

Useless to watch without the slides he is referring to.

[@WiiwAcAt]

Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@davidfrommer587]

@@WiiwAcAt Nah, train your camera person better to show them during the talk

[@henrycunha8379]

Awful video. Doesn't show the graphs, for whatever strange reason.

[@SuperTonyony]

If nations can still invade other nations and annex their territory, then the Allies fought WW2 in vain.

[@DominicFlynn]

But that's not what happened in Ukraine is it

[@dominik36127]

@@DominicFlynn How come? Russia invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory so I guess it is precisely what has happened. First Crimea in 2014 and now they are trying to annex Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozia and Kherson oblasts.

[@DominicFlynn]

@@dominik36127 that didn't happen

[@dominik36127]

@@DominicFlynn Yes it did. This is precisely what happened. But if think otherwise maybe you can enlighten us what do you think happened so we can explain to you where does your confusion comes from.

[@vishwas1868]

yes you need to tell that nato and the US, they have created havoc . No wonder russia which lost 27 millions lives in ww2 cannot stand the hypocrisy

[@brianfriedman101]

What aggression? Are they talking about ukrainian nazis?

[@ekesandras1481]

are there Ukrainian troops in Russia? No. Are there Russian troops in Ukraine? Yes. So who is the aggressor?

[@endlesssolitaire731]

Imagine being so dumb to think that retarded post-soviet youth subculture which has no political representation has something to do with this war beyond being propaganda boogeyman for stupid people. As Russian citizen I saw this neo-Nazi subculture in Moscow, however idiots didn't justify any actions against Russian federation because some thugs bullied people with central Asian phenotype and shouted neo-nazi slogans.

[@stanislav7920]

46:14 "Accelerate the greening of the European economy..." - после этих слов, не вижу смысла дослушивать до конца. Скорее в Африке случится эта "green economy" - потребления там меньше.

[@Pajune]

What are you smoking? Are you aware Africa is a continent with 54 nations with highly different corruption indexes?

[@elizabethfitzgibbon3908]

Too much time spent on introduction

[@davewalters6348]

Whole lot of speculation and outright propaganda mixed in with a few more then obvious observations

[@jmbpaz]

How can a guy be so ignorant, the whole global south understands exactly what's going on, BRIC's baby.

[@duncanbirnie4158]

👍👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

[@LosTCoz3000]

it's ukraine's war. they could have ended this a year ago.

[@ekesandras1481]

by surrendering?

[@_mimika_]

На Украине все могло закончится ещё в 2014 году, без необходимости вмешаться в конфликт России. Для этого были подписаны минские соглашения... Которые поддержали Германия, Франция, Россия и которые Украинская власть обязалась исполнить, но как и всегда, обманула :( Но учитывая что Украина лишь марионетка, думаю что мирно развиваться России не дали бы, просто сменили марионетку:( У России много слабостей, которые используют¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

[@malfeasance62]

@@ekesandras1481 by following the Minsk agreements.

[@walterbo7687]

​​@@malfeasance62 Russia did not follow the agreements (btw: I saw you are a Russian following Russian websites)

[@jmbpaz]

Maybe, but Russia's economy grew faster than Germany's, not to mention insane UK with negative growth !!!!!

[@jaarneal]

Not sure what you’re referring to. The head of Russia’s central bank said that Russia’s gdp dropped by about 4%. Germany’s gdp grew (something like 2-3%), and the UK’s seemed to stay nearly the same… so it MAY be in a recession. We still don’t have all of the numbers yet. Regardless, compared to both of those western economies, Russia’s has suffered more. Like this guy said, given high oil prices, one would expect that Russia’s economy would grow by 5% in 2022. Instead it shrank by 3-4%, which means the sanctions have had a significant (but not catastrophic… yet) impact on Russia.

[@malfeasance62]

@@jaarneal he's about recent IMF predictions

[@jaarneal]

@@malfeasance62 Probably not, because he used the past tense “grew”. But yeah we’ll see how close the IMF comes to being correct.

[@peternewman7940]

@@jaarneal Interesting that when Western sanctions throttled the flow of imports Russia receives from the West, this naturally improved Russia's balance of payments - despite reduced revenue streams from oil and gas.

[@Duginich]

Guriev is a great and sympathetic guy. At the same time, his views have their limits.

[@dnickaroo3574]

He follows the “acceptable narrative” as maintained by the BBC and TNI.

[@minka6]

russia will be somewhere between Iran and N Korea. excellent lecture

[@fazm7093]

Quite one sided. How about bringing someone on who supports the current Russian government. It's very selective to say Russia has extra judicial executions when whe US does it regularly and uses it as a badge of honour

[@theresaadams7143]

We are being deceived in believing that the deaths of high level missile scientists and other Russian elites are Putin's doing. I would not rule out CIA operatives doing the kiling instead.

[@ekesandras1481]

both have extra judicial executions, Russia has more.

[@fazm7093]

@@ekesandras1481 I doubt that but would be great to see the evidence. I think it would be more weighted towards the US by 50 to 1.

[@theresaadams7143]

@@ekesandras1481 please provide sources for your claim. Because I can produce an overwhelming amount perpetrated by the USA, one such person is Kennedy and Osama bin laden, Sadam, Iranian general, khadafi and many more.

[@PaulMitchell-uj1uu]

Heavily propagandized.

[@stevenmaritz2681]

Balanced view

[@thomasmoseid2145]

Can't see the charts!!!

[@WiiwAcAt]

Download the slides of his presentation here: wiiw.ac.at/files/events/guriev-january-10-2023-n-601.pptx

[@tubefm01]

I have the impression Russians generally speak honestly, this guy is an exemption.

[@barcode6495]

There is no other russia and never has been.

[@vi_terminator]

This is pure one-sided POV, Why don't this Prof. also discuss how US, NATO countries invaded and ruined so many countries. Because of the West aggression, Libya is now left devastated. See what happened to Afghanistan.

[@uschurch]

Ghaddaffi gone, Saddam gone, milosevic gone. And you cry. Think about it.

[@spiderone4]

@@uschurch Bashar el Assad holds because Putin decided to back him up. Obama gone ,Trump gone. Biden is desperate, waiting for Putin to drop him some bone so he could save some face. Neeext.

[@walterbo7687]

Because is about Ukraine war. Get over it. Or organise your own convention

[@paulbailey5322]

This is so one sided.

[@walterbo7687]

Yeah, you should have been there