Should Selbst FOLD Aces Full? (BRUTAL Cooler Analyzed)

[@PhilGalfond]

Thanks for watching! Want to improve your poker mindset? My 44-page Mindset Strategy Playbook is free to you -> www.philgalfond.com/mindset-yt

[@Jooolse]

Great analysis! In particular, it was really interesting to hear you break down her thought-process step by step. There are many factors I would have totally missed. By the way, she seems to be a great player indeed... whatever some other youtuber with a similar haircut might say.

[@UnconventionalReasoning]

Selbst's heart said fold, her head said call. It is much easier to listen to our heart, Vanessa is disciplined enough to listen to her head.

[@skyeangelofdeath7363]

Very nice analysis. The only thing I'd add is that Selbst knows Baumann is a bit of a "rock". That really helps make folding possible. In a weirdly funny theoretical situation; if Selbst was playing her "clone" as in against herself, then it's never possible to fold. After all, she has the absolute best possible hand she can ever arrive with at the river here.

[@NameHerbert]

11:26 this is weird point of view.. minutes earlier u said vanessa is representing a full house there - please make a video about spots where to bluff full houses profitable. i just can`t see my opponent folding 55+ there unless i played thousands of hands with him.

[@PoliteAF]

It's been a little while since a hand analysis gave me this much fresh food for thought, especially without a solver output. Thank you, Mr. Galfond. I can't wait to rewatch this in a couple hours. Have a wonderful day! :D

[@mickaelmalove2553]

I love that sentence: she couldn't find this fold, because she's not supposed to find this fold.

[@stevescontriano860]

I don’t know about you, but every time I See Vanessa, I wonder if she’s the one who wears the strap on

[@irishkniferd9837]

Donald Trump would have won the hand

[@AB-nk5wv]

You can’t fold there getting around 3/1 to call on a coin flip. The main question is would Baumann shove with Ah7h. I kinda don’t think many top players would there but Baumann did have a lot of chips it appears.

[@claytonbrown7120]

Trumptards would believe him! 😆

[@gurdiprooprai6453]

Ummm *anyone*, let alone a top pro, with A7, def raises all in there lol. You've got the second nuts, you're only losing to one hand AA, not to mention it's not even a large raise, giving your opponent over 3:1 🤦🏾‍♂️.

[@ivorscrotumic3556]

That whole thought process, around whether she could've had A7s or not & Vanessa checking her suits & might even have folded if she had the Ah in her hand, is a fantastic example of the gulf between the best players & recreational players like myself. Snap call for me, every time.

[@drewg3669]

Also knowing what opponents will bluff, in cash games and most smaller tournaments players care less and will bluff more often

[@gs6810]

100% would have folded. She was very transparent that she thought there were only two possible hands her opponent could have, each with one combination. Thus 50/50 she wins or loses and there is already chips in the pot giving her the pot odds to call.

[@ivorscrotumic3556]

@@gs6810 "100% would have folded"...😂😂😅😅 Brilliant. Do you not know that you don't get to see the other player's hole cards, in real life poker...???

[@ivorscrotumic3556]

@@basdfef4775 Nah. I'm felted. As are the vast majority (if not all) of the people in the comment section, if we're being honest. I'd be broke after that hand, for sure...😁

[@arnoldvosloo220]

@@ivorscrotumic3556 Pretty sure he's saying Vanessa 100% would have folded if she had the ace of hearts, given the context of the rest of his comment. Given she didn't have the ace of hearts she had the pot odds to call.

[@Pokerfarhang]

The gentleman at the table who thinks she has a flush is the skill gap that Phil is talking about

[@mrbejam]

If he said ak it would’ve been even funnier 😂if

[@a55tech]

how he supposed to know it ain't a flush?

[@Pokerfarhang]

@@a55tech cause a flush snap folds after overbetting the river and getting raised all in

[@a55tech]

@@Pokerfarhang ah i c tho can see newer players die on the flush just cuz other hands are unlikely ha

[@MarcoAshford]

@@a55techOn a paired board, flush is worthless facing deep stack action. You all in with only nuts or 2nd nuts in action heavy play like this. Basically like only all in with AA KK preop. A flush will be beaten by any FH, so it’s basically like deep stack all in preflop with 88s or something, only donkey player do that.

[@JCizzleSoCal]

The announcers kept saying that there could be a 4th Ace drawn but Rosen already folded it before the flop

[@deltadealer]

So true.

[@Tom0x56]

I was thinking that too. I guess that the announcers were looking at the percentages. It was showing 98/2. But with the folded Ace, it was already 100/0.

[@Beyond_Darkking]

You're watching an edited video. Thier watching live and the announcers probably examining hundreds of hands that day.

[@Neurotik51]

I mean they just didn't see it, shouldn't blame them for that they're doing it live.

[@shashipancholi]

Yt algo came in clutch recommending this video. Really great analysis. Very approachable for the casual viewer while still being informative for an experienced player

[@victoryu3978]

ngl, this one play makes me respect her skills and intuition a lot more and makes her awful shove not as memorable lol

[@TheSherlockHomez]

J7o against AA from Friedman you mean? Gotta be honest, her thoughts for that hand were legit aswell, just unlucky she went against AA 😅

[@markwinchester5434]

i assumed he was talking about her pocket 4s vs A9o shove@@TheSherlockHomez

[@noweasyjay]

It was perfect shove. I mean, understandable. Every once in a while, we find ourselves in spots we didn't expect to find ourselves in. Everyone.

[@victoryu3978]

yeah i was referncing the j7 punt but the 44 shove is one too lmao@@markwinchester5434

[@gabeop9615]

​@@markwinchester5434that wasn't so bad at least she was ahead before the flop just a typical tournament race 😂😂😂

[@ajhieb]

Vanessa is one of those players I typically like to pile-on, but kudos to her in this spot. Not only did she come within a frog-hair of making an unbelievably good fold in a spot where it's almost unthinkable, when she received the bad news, she handled it as gracefully as I've seen.

[@arlencarroll1964]

Usually she doesn't take it gracefully at all though and had her opponent been a man,we'd have seen a different reaction still

[@motivationiskey4993]

🤣 lmao had to bring the gender rolls into it 😂. Ppl like you are who create that type of mindset for others.. Being a woman opponent had absolutely nothing to do with how she reacted.. Nothing. She simply lost to quads at the main event, so there is nothing she could get mad about. Period. Nothing to do with gender.. So sad that ppl like you create these types of judgmental situations on others out of thin air and your own personal ego. Good luck at the tables

[@CribNotes]

Yeah, Vanessa handled that cooler like a champ!! Way better than she did after 6-bet shoving with pocket 4's and getting called by A9o.

[@Ken-sh8vr]

No player is going to fold aces full in the Main Event

[@antzooma]

this says more about you tbh, hating on Vanessa for no reason lol

[@Doodz613]

Incredible breakdown and lesson on how to evaluate the strength of your hand based on the action that unfolds. Keep it up Phil! love the content.

[@drslyone]

How do they figure the probabilities? We saw Rosen fold with the ace of hearts, so there should have been 0%, not 2% chance for Selbst at the river. And the announcers could have known that too, no ace was coming.

[@matthewossi4060]

It's assuming what the odds are from their perspective

[@solz22]

It doesn’t count cards burned or mucked. Because the players in the hand would calculate those odds in their heads not knowing what others had. So it’s always assuming a best case scenario

[@johnjeffreys6440]

You can't play the game putting people on quads, or flopping a set. Mathematically speaking, you will lose in the longrun assuming that.

[@very5ick112]

exactly

[@dr.options]

She was drawing dead. The last Ace was folded pre-flop.

[@pglover64]

I saw the same thing, one of Rosen ‘s hole cards was the A❤️. I was wondering why they were giving 2% chance when A was dead.

[@qsdailydose8970]

Love Phil’s commentary

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you ☺

[@KenDavis-uo8kq]

Agreed! The best imo.

[@richard7645]

When you going to play at the lodge phil?

[@joereinartz1369]

The breakdown of checking if she had Ace of hearts and Ace of diamonds is something i would never think to do. And makes me realize just how much i have to learn despite playing for a decade. Great video Phil.

[@brucelee5576]

For real man.

[@madlok9114]

i wouldnt give a shit quads is like 1 out of 200k hands,

[@danielmouncer4131]

@@madlok9114 yeah quads is rare approx 4000-1. BUT in a main event repeated raising and getting it all in on a paired board makes quads far far more likelier in that particular hand. Like Phil said, what is your opponent representing here? It's top full house, quads OR a bluff. And how likely is this bluff?

[@janpiet9921]

Even if you snap call here without thinking about anything, I don't think it hurts your overall profit as a player. You can comfortably call the second nuts as a general rule and still very much be a great player. That said it is definitely a smart thing to keep in mind to check suits and see if your opponents can have suited hands :D

[@madlok9114]

you play 1-2 live with 200 max buy in stfu already

[@magiciangob]

If Vanessa had managed the fold, and Baumann had not shown, I think Vanessa would have felt even worse than she did losing the hand. This is a great hand in many ways, I think it also serves as an example of where folding correctly can throw someone into their worst level of tilt. I hope I can remember this the next time I make a tough laydown where I know I'm beat.

[@lightningsoulde]

She for sure would have gotten the news by like 5000 mentions on Twitter alone as this was livestreamed with a delay (probably 30 minutes or an hour). Would have been one of the greatest laydowns in the history of poker imho.

[@spencer_]

@@lightningsoulde this was before the live streamed days

[@theinfamous1402]

@@lightningsoulde That would be after the night of poker, not in the moment of tilt

[@danwittal1788]

@@lightningsoulde yep the fact she really considered the fold. When you hit a certain level I think your way more conscience of the monsters under the bed I think it was part read and the somewhat pessimistic view top players have , but I could tell her gut was telling her she was beat but that dam brain told her she had to call.. the gut isn't always right but it sure is sometimes...

[@Robert-fu1pq]

Correct about feeling worse if they don't show. If they don't show such a big hand your going to think they didn't have it and go on tilt. I have called for just that reason I'd rather be beat and see it.

[@mistert8348]

Which Hand would Baumann target with her move on the River, If she has only a7? So i suggest, Baumann would have just called with a7

[@matterdoo]

There’s no chance that anyone is folding AA in this spot, just zero, none, no one, period. The idea that she even thought about this for more than 20 seconds is amazing. You just have 77 and it’s GG, period. Putting your opponent on once exact hand and folding aces full there in the long run would be a losing play, and you would be extremely exploitable.

[@papadwarf6762]

They call players that fold there nits

[@stevescontriano860]

Do you think Vanessa is the one who wears the strap on?

[@brandontownsend2756]

She narrowed her range down to 2 exact hands based on how the hand played out. It's real easy to do.

[@xavierb9061]

Easy fold. She playing with 75? Or 4s and reraised in main event? Easy fold

[@marcusprice3199]

If she looked down at AH AD she's throwing it.

[@imwatchinberniemac]

You wouldn’t believe how many people said they would fold this hand on the actual video

[@freshfritz4649]

They should quit poker.

[@geoffreybrooks5207]

I’m folding AA pre flop. It’s just a trash hand unless you are heads up against the blind

[@VOT3BYMAIL]

Ngl it'd be a really tempting fold against any female player who isn't Vanessa lmao. I still wouldn't find the fold but I'd be shittin' bricks fr.

[@bajorekjon]

Just a bunch of captain hindsights

[@Manihsi]

@@geoffreybrooks5207 "You're right in limit games, but in no-limit tournaments, pocket AA (aces) is the strongest starting hand."

[@Anubis-xk6vw]

The fish at the table: "You have a flush"😂

[@wilc.2095]

That’s why if I were in that situation and she asked me what I think she has I would just shake my head and not answer. Dude wasn’t even in the hand and he gave everyone a read on his ability. 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@eVaLuShIn]

Yea I'm not a pro but I hope he was lowkey just trying to troll there lol. If he's made the main event there's no chance he believed either had a flush lol.

[@ijmad]

Yeah I'm learning about range vs range and range polarisation at the moment, he is me a few years ago

[@cweave5443]

@@eVaLuShIn You don't have to have any talent to make the main event of the WSOP. You just have to have $10,000 sitting around.

[@eVaLuShIn]

​@@cweave5443so this wasn't final table?

[@randylahey8207]

Vanessa broke it down perfectly. Since she could have had A7 of hearts, it's literally a 50/50 proposition. It's either that or the other two 7s. With that much money in the pot, she just unfortunately has to call. You could see the pain on her face, so brutal. One of my all-time favorite posters on 2p2, legend..

[@jaymiller6009]

The only person I can think of who would have folded in that situation is Mike Postle; and he would have immediately folded the raise on 4th street! Haha!!

[@dylantheTD]

@@jaymiller6009 nah, he would have called then he would have open folded river lmfao.

[@dhinton1]

Vanessa actually did break it down flawlessly. There was one ACE and three 7's left unaccounted for. and she knew the player well enough to know she wasn't bluffing ..... so it TRULY WAS 50/50. either she had A7, or 77. there literally is ZERO fold options there 🤷🏾‍♂

[@randylahey8207]

@@dhinton1 oh it's definitely not a bluff, certainly not on day one of the main event. That's the only conceivable way I could think of folding there, because with a decent stack and the blinds that low she's obviously so talented she could just accumulate slowly and wait for MUCH worse players to get involved with. But in real time, I'm sure I'd sigh call too...

[@TheGoodChap]

​​​@@jaymiller6009the instant the 4th seven came out Postle would have visibly frowned, shook his head and then folded lmao. He literally did that in a hand where he should have thought he was best. I think the other person made a set and were holding two of the same card so there was no way for postle to know the guy improved but he instantly looked frustrated when the card came out lol

[@zottffss]

It's honestly incredible how Selbst considered folding Aces full like that. Like many others, I would've snap-called and gotten brutally coolered.

[@GuddaGang]

What a great explanation Phil! Breaking down that thought process taught me some things I didn’t know and hopefully will improve my game! The pros consider every angle! Great analysis 🙏🏾

[@daveclark6324]

This is one of my favorite hands. When I originally saw it, I liked Vanessa explaining why she considered folding. It helped an amateur like me understand the game better as does Phil's explanation. 👍

[@christiang5209]

The explanation of her is most likely also a way to aquire information. I mean Baumann bqsically knows selbst have AA, is she now uncomfortable or happy? Many (top) poker player do this, or throwing hands in to get a range - especially when it is just about calling or folding. Negreanu often guesses the hands of the opposition, but he is also off a lot but he gets over or under with such estimations.

[@johnjeffreys6440]

You can't play the game putting people on quads, or flopping a set. Mathematically speaking, you will lose in the longrun assuming that. Reply

[@sal78sal]

@@johnjeffreys6440 you've got the second nuts and on the river the other player is playing like they never want this hand to finish. they are literally milking you. folding is real option.

[@johnjeffreys6440]

@@sal78sal only fold if there’s 3 of a kind on board

[@sal78sal]

@@johnjeffreys6440 what are the odds of getting 4 of a kind with 3 on the board vs 2 on the board? I would guess the same %. Whether you fold depends on the player. Admittedly A7 and 77 would play fairly similarly pre flop. But getting milked by a very good player is a give away. I've never had this situation. I did have K7 and flopped 777. got paid by 2 players going all in on the river. I was only calling. hehehehehe Amateur city.

[@hushpuckena126]

This hand recalls the fold deep in the Main Event the year before by James Obst with a full house vs a possible straight flush. Obst tanked, then mucked; his opponent had the goods.

[@RolandoAvila-ep7cu]

James Obst is an amazing underrated player. I loved that hand, he made one of the sickest reads and despite all that money in the pot he made a discipline lay down.

[@chriszehren3856]

I ran into this exact situation at Daytona Beach Poker room, except it was Aces vs nines, no flush draw, and even referenced this hand while agonizing over the guys shove when he hit quads on the turn, I said this is the Vanessa Selbst/Gael Bauman hand. I unfortunately couldn’t lay it down either

[@Funktaro5]

To be honest, a huge part of the reason Selbst even has a decision here is because it's the Main Event. If this is a cash game that isn't super deep stacked Baumann is shoving 75, 55 and almost certainly a king high flush as well, and possibly some bluffs if she's really elite to maintain some balance. (i.e. the naked Kc). There's not many boats in Vanessa's range, and you can definitely hope to be called by AxKc, 7x or lower flushes. In this exact spot, with pros valuing their Main Event lives so highly, all of that disappears, and even A7 becomes a "maybe she wouldn't shove it" spot. Which changes things entirely. In over 99 out of 100 spots, if someone tanks here with AA it'd be incredibly obnoxious because they're almost always winning. This isn't one of those times though.

[@MarioRossi-lh7rr]

I remember that

[@chriszehren3856]

@@MarioRossi-lh7rr you remember the Selbst/Bauman hand, or you were at my table?

[@jonathanbosma9932]

​​@@Funktaro5well, I doubt someone would build a pot from 2k after the turn with the full house already out there, to 100k at the end of the hand with a flush. Especially at the main event against the only other pro at the table. But also not in cash games. Yes, if the hand was played a bit faster preflop and on the flop there is a possibility, but not with this action and this way of building the pot at the main event with the only 2 pro's on the table battling eachother. Against a overbet check-raise on the turn and an overbet river raise a flush is nothing more than a bluff catcher.

[@gilliganallmighty3]

​@@Funktaro5 in cash games, that call will win more in the long run with similar pot odds.

[@gilbertnevils7393]

How does 2% show up when we saw the case ace folded pre flop

[@mnm1273]

Those odd calculators do not usually take into account folded cards.

[@Testing-kg5di]

Phil, I’m a big fan of yours. You can NEVER make that fold. Sometimes you have to say to yourself, if she has it, she has it. It’s a losing play in the long run if you fold. Thanks, Alan from Boston

[@Skyboub73]

Phil, these 15 min tutorials are nothing short than fantastic !!!!! Thank you sir !

[@PhilGalfond]

You’re very welcome!

[@christinaanderson5295]

Did it need to be 15 minutes long though? Jesus. Six minutes at most.

[@danbreilin9169]

I didn't notice how long it was because, well one of the best players in the world commenting on another top player in the world about the hand reading, bet sizing, and thought process of an incredible hand I was too busy enjoying every minute. Thank you Phil

[@Hardcoremetis]

Lol tutorial 15 min 1 hand

[@CheckLeftHookKO]

This was such an awesome hand by elite players and an elite analysis really showcases what hands each player is representing. I, of course, would have snap called fist pumping the river lol. Great video, Phil!!!

[@RobbieStacks90]

It was played horribly by Selbst. You're at level 1 of the WSOP. What are all of your chips doing in the middle? If a tight player like Baumann is shoving all her chips, she has quads. Selbst's ego is the reason she busted. She convinced herself from the flop that her full house was good. She deserved this because of her myopic line of thinking.

[@АндрейБулгаков-с7ю]

​@@RobbieStacks90не было там паса...ты бы выкинул?... там пара пятерок так же ставили бы...

[@id10t98]

@@RobbieStacks90 exactly. Selbst being Selbst, incapable of believing she can be beat.

[@drfell9105]

@@RobbieStacks90 Keep folding everytime there is a pair on the board because your opponent has to have quads 😂

[@m.7877]

@@RobbieStacks90 oh sure buddy, a professional like you would have definitely snap folded in her position right xD love how you poker 'gurus' always think you're better and yet it's not your hand that's being analysed. The irony of saying that she has a big ego lmao

[@Jimmy_James79]

I love this format...Your hand break downs are top notch!

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you!

[@eVaLuShIn]

Your clip just happened to pop up on my feed and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I play 2 house game tourneys a month and have been winning or placing consistently for the past 6 months. Consider myself an above avg player, but without you explaining why she wanted to check her suits on her Aces I would have never known. I've watched this particular clip 50x on fb thru the years. Your insight and analysis on why she said that will definitely be on my mind now in upcoming tournaments when making reads. All the best buddy!

[@etpc2023]

3:20 also how is Selbest 2% to win at this stage? We saw the A of hearts get folded by Rosen so she will not get quad A’s. Someone in the team of the tv show f’d up on this

[@mnm1273]

No, it's standard not to include folded hands (at least preflop) in the calculation. It's too much of a nuisance

[@AndreasInLondon]

Great commentary. Love Selbst as well, proper old school aggressive play back in the day. There's no way she can fold, but it would've been the best fold ever televised for sure.

[@yoitsdan]

It would have been a minus EV fold if you're playing GTO. The only way you correctly fold this hand is if Baumann's hand flashed.

[@Brazz27]

@@yoitsdanGTO should never be your reference in cooler spots lol

[@michaelmarsico9740]

@@yoitsdanabsolutely a minus ev fold of playing gto, but sometimes you have to go with good old instinct and get an edge on gto. This would have been an incredible fold by instinct, but incredibly bad fold by gto. Agree with ya

[@alistairwillock7266]

​@@yoitsdanFor the reasons that Phil covered in this video, this isn't a GTO spot. Both players have such huge edges over the majority of the field, and start the hand with so much stack depth, that they _need_ to deviate to maximize their ROI in the tournament. Once Baumann takes 2/3rds-pot sizing on the turn, and then Selbt c/rs 3.5x and then _overbets_ on the river, Baumann has zero bluffs as played. The key difference of opinion that I have with both Selbst and Phil himself here is that - in this spot - I don't believe that Baumann _ever_ jams A7hh. Why? Because Baumann would have known that Selbst has the same disincentives to stack off as Baumann herself. Therefore a shove by A7hh would only be called by better. A7hh is a pure call once Selbst takes the c/r-turn-overbet-river line. And if Selbst had been able to realize just _how_ unbalanced Baumann _has_ to be in that spot, I think she could still have found the fold. Crazy though it may be to say, I don't think that Selbst is good in that spot basically ever. Certainly less than 1-in-10, and likely less than 1-in-20. Along with the future value of, you know, _staying alive in the Main Event_ ... This is a pure fold. And no, I couldn't have made that fold either. I'd have made the same rationalizations that Selbst did and stacked off too 🤣

[@michaelmccarthy7138]

Easy fold, right? I don’t think anyone would be able to fold there. Do you believe she would’ve folded if she had AAhd in her hand like she said? What if she just had pocket 5’s?

[@John-ng3pj]

You're excellent at explaining the strategy and the logic behind it, Phil.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you very much 🙂

[@MrJamberee]

In this hand, it’s all just talk. Nobody is laying that hand down. It’s not happening. If the opponent has quads, you’re just going to take your beating. She called. Gave reasons why she thought she might be b beat, all meaningless. She called. Just like every other poker pro or amateur would do.

[@Mark-rw3kw]

@@MrJamberee You are absolutely correct, and no one is going to fold top boat. No analysis is needed. I folded a boat one time against quads, but there were two other higher possible boats, plus the possible quads (which is what it was), and I knew I was up against one of those 3 hands that beat my boat (based on the beating action).

[@markgrade6644]

I absolutely loved the analysis and narration of this hand from a poker pro. Always something new to learn, think about, and / or incorporate into your playing style. Thanks, Phil, for the breakdown.

[@angc214]

I think the TV crew forgot that somebody folded an Ace early on. Selbst was already drawing dead on the turn.

[@travisblack9519]

Phil I am a returning pro player who is re-sharpening his game and hoping to reach new heights. I want you to know I think your channel is great and I subscribed - not just because the advice and analysis is good but also I like your attitude, you seem kind and genuine.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you! Good luck on your return 🍀

[@JimmyMidnight]

The guy needs to shut up

[@camilloneverfolds]

I think you need to play a lot of live poker to feel as sick as Vanessa did immediately after getting shoved on the river. I've seen many coolers where there might be a slight hesitation from someone in Vanessa's spot, followed by a rather quick call. Like you mentioned, huge props to Vanessa for even taking the time she did to rewind the hand and check the suits to make the decision. Although nearly every fiber in her body is screaming fold, there's always that spaz factor to keep in mind, or the A7hh combo. When I get coolered, I try and think to myself, "this is why we have a bankroll." Thanks for the break down!

[@kirblar]

Additionally she's just out of chips if she folds now. It's why even though her intuition is screaming to fold she can't do it because folding all but takes her out minus some incredibly good luck in the next few rounds of hands.

[@williamking7800]

Let's say that Baumann has a 2% chance to bluff, and we presume the only other hands she could have are 77 or A7s. Based off suits that could only be Ah7h, so that'd still give us 49% 77, 49% A7, 2% bluff. This is indeed a call every single time, it's just Selbst is smart enough to know it's barely better than a coinflip.

[@pegasrio]

50% chance to win, so it was a good call. But maybe, if A7hh vs overbet only calls thinking “im playing vs AA, A7 and 55. And 55 would fold, so if a shove im only getting called losing or drawing”, so if this is the case she can fold AA. But its too hard i think.

[@williamdavis2505]

Two combos of A7 v one of 77 makes it more of a call.

[@HighlyCruciferous]

​@@williamdavis2505Only one combo of A7 suited, but even that is questionable, given how tight her opponent plays preflop

[@williamdavis2505]

@@HighlyCruciferous ah I haven’t watched the hand in a long time didn’t consider the preflop action.

[@billmoran6]

If she has A7 it's ironically a call bc Baumann never flats AA pre

[@xavierb9061]

0 percent main event day one, with 3rd nuts a passive player reraises a pot river.

[@inordirectional]

question: should Bauman even be raising A7hh on the river here? What would she be targeting to make a raise profitable? Based on how it played out and Phil/Vanessa's comments, it seems she would only be getting called by better. if this is true (and Gail realized it, could be expected to play accordingly), could selbst could have folded profitably?

[@sal78sal]

exactly. why would A7 be raising on the river? Who is going to call you? AAA77 is getting milked here and she doesnt see it.

[@ijmad]

Wow, seeing Vanessa work through this hand is educational! Thanks for the commentary it really enhanced it.

[@pr1metime.]

Hi Phil love you contents! Just an idea but I would appreciate it if you could make a video on optimal way of playing deep stack cash games with 300+ BB's. I feel like my sweet spot is around 150 BB's but when it goes beyond that I struggle with it sometimes. Also I would love your take on potentially folding KK's preflop when playing deep stacks (I recently ran into AA's with KK's playing 300+ BB's 🤣) I don't know if you still live in Vancouver but if you do I hope you enjoy the sunshine while it lasts before it gets rainy going into autumn 🌞

[@stephenjones6030]

Vanessa is NEVER seriously thinking about folding that hand. NEVER. That's what makes this so sick.

[@janne_plomeros]

You are not describing Vanessa, only says how bad you are

[@AmongUsAcademy]

Thanks for breaking down such a memorable hand from Doug

[@marksmith8667]

Great video. But - at 00:35 we see Rosen folding A 6, so Selbst was drawing dead after the turn - no?

[@ColorOfMoney7]

It's amazing how much commentary there is on one hand

[@elastronaute1198]

I can't quite believe Selbst's reaction to Baumann's rereaise on the river, she is giving massive respect to Baumann, basically knowing she must have quads there. Incredible respect between both players.

[@DMTsmoke]

She did Baumann a disservice even suggesting that she could be picking off A7, which has to be concerned about AA and is never getting called by 55. So tough to find the fold, but there is NO hand Baumann should EVER have in this spot other than 77.

[@MrJamberee]

This is nonsense. She has aces full and is pretending to be in a tough spot about what to do. She’s not folding aces full and all of this silly talk around that possibility is just that-silly talk. In this spot, you’re just going to take your beating. Nobody is folding, so just stop it.

[@higosu4770]

​@@MrJambereeof course she was in a tough spot, she literally got eliminated for not finding a near-impossible fold

[@BW-eo3rn]

It's actually a showing of disrespect. She's saying with her action to Baumann that "you're not good enough to find a bluff here." If she respected Baumann's game fully, she'd have snapped.

[@Funktaro5]

@@BW-eo3rn While you're technically right there very well may not be a single pro in the world that is bluffing in this spot in the Main Event. It'd be the ultimate punt to minraise all in on the river in level one in a spot where Selbst herself is almost never bluffing.

[@davidcampbell4174]

The thing that was missed in this review was that an ace had been folded already early in the hand. Selbst was drawing dead on the flop. Not a 2% chance. Great breakdown though.

[@MrBenW]

Thank you....been looking for this comment cos I didn't know why she had a 2% chance there

[@smhoangs]

No, not dead on the flop. Dead on the turn…..Selbst was ahead on the flop….dead on the turn because the ace of heart is folded pre-flop.

[@likemostthings]

the fact that she paused and looked at her aces shows why she is such a great poker player and why I should not ever play poker!

[@PhilGalfond]

😂

[@j.mikerosner5722]

Wow; EXCELLENT Commentary! Really got me ~’in their heads’; AWESOME, thank you!!!

[@pokermonfacegaming]

She broke it down perfectly. Gaelle being a good player also plays a major factor, because of that Vanessa was able to break it down to 2 hands. If shes up against someone whos playing a lot more hands, then she can never fold AA there, even if both aces were red.

[@neowenyang2944]

9:42 - 9:47 : Me searching for meaning of live

[@nvkzz0923]

This break down is so valuable, this is what seperates the best players from others like myself. I will be completely honest I would've snap called any day of the week if I were in that situation. Very valuable breakdown of the whole thought process as well as checking the suits and everything. I;ve got lot of learning to go still

[@Gingnose]

With that humility that you have, you can achieve anything

[@eaton6020]

Thank you for giving us such insightful commentary on these interesting hands. No idea how you don’t have more subs - you’re more than just skilled and experienced, and you are concise and in-depth in your commentaries.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you so much 😊 I’ll keep on doing what I do!

[@MrJamberee]

“Considered folding”. But she didn’t fold

[@nickmannion3879]

Can I ask how the aces were given 2% after the turn, as the case ace had been folded by the small blind pre flop?

[@LayzeeGiant]

Never liked Vanessa but that was a very smart read, even if she didn’t fold.

[@DontBeStatusQuo]

I would have snapped called jumping up and down, and been bummed to see the result. And that’s why I’m a losing poker player

[@AzeOfSpadez]

Even winning poker players would snap here 99% of the time

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

If you’re a losing player it’s not because you’d snap call in spots like this.

[@sal78sal]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj With her final bet, Baumann said "the river is here, I'm going to now milk you" and you call. Not very clever, bad impulse control.

[@darrenhadden1037]

Can't fold just a sick cooler. Checking the suits was cool. Well played by both players.

[@darrenhadden1037]

@@Boltzmann-eh7uf yes!!!!

[@charliesaxs]

Why was selbst's chance to win still 2% after that 7 rolls off the turn? One of the other players folded the case Ace so therefore isn't she drawing stone cold dead? Edit pt 2, btw phil love your stuff, extremely informative and you make sense with everything you say

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you so much! Some TV graphics packages take the folded cards into account and some don't.

[@Mdevlin0]

Nice catch! The announcers didn’t catch that either. She was drawing cold dead.

[@prestonjulielesniak6314]

Thanks for asking, just typing that up wonder what run out was possible.

[@charliesaxs]

@@Mdevlin0 yeah thats what i thought too lol, they said she needs the case ace, i was thinking she'll be needing for a long time lol

[@copium5050]

@@PhilGalfond Which do you prefer? I like not taking into account the folded cards so you see what the equity is like from the player's perspective.

[@markcapestro5390]

Great video! Great breakdown of a fantastic hand.

[@jonathanmoore9661]

That was intense. I’m just starting to learn Poker, will be watching your channel a lot!

[@PhilGalfond]

Welcome! 😊

[@marcpower3482]

This exact thing happened to me two weeks ago. I had AA and flopped A33. Turn was a blank and river brought front door flush possibility. I bet on river, she pushes. I call. She had 33. Haven’t played since. Definitely needed a break.

[@sal78sal]

ouch. flopped 4 of a kind. no bet on the flop or the river?

[@jchesswithconstantine]

If you ever fold Aces Full in that situation, you should stop playing poker. Because the mathematically correct move is always to lose your entire stack. It would have been hilarious if she had the two red aces and folded and the opponents flipped over a stone bluff.

[@chrisleos1235]

That was the most relaxed iv ever seen Vanessa take a bad beat and get eliminated, she was definitely in a good place that day and had better things to do evidently ☺️

[@LucianDevine]

Yeah, she took it like a champ. She had perfectly good justifications for going either way, made her decision, and stuck by it. That's really all you can do.

[@jamesnovotny2991]

These hand reviews and analyses are brilliant and fascinating. Great content.

[@BobbyBrown-yz3pw]

The way she put through those chips in there it should have been a call. She was trying to get her to turn her hand over then when she sees quads she can say she didn’t call.

[@C3Nik]

Can't wait until he discusses it on Polker Hands.

[@dixinbuttz44]

vanessa can neva fold lol

[@johnr5252]

What’s to analyze? You have a full house. Of course you will bet.

[@kingpinballer242]

No, you missed the whole point of the video. Someone like you would think they were going to win the pot 100% of the time, but good players can analyze and see that they might lose. Come play at my game John, we need more fish

[@johnr5252]

@@kingpinballer242 there’s no ‘analyzing’ that hand. That’s total BS. You don’t get hands much better than that. Play it!

[@butcho7492]

Great breakdown Phil- your delivery is easy for newer players to grasp as well as those of us who have been playing for years. Thanks, man.

[@PhilGalfond]

Awesome! Thank you very much 😊

[@dhinton1]

​@@PhilGalfonddefinitely a great analysis ..... and i have enjoyed watching you play too 💯

[@dudutpatarlas8811]

The 4th ace was already folded. What was the 2% for sebst for?

[@Moonlightmaster]

It's 0% because of the folded Ace (as you mentioned) but not all poker overlays account for folded cards.

[@freddyjefferson5164]

Best commentator I’ve ever seen…..nice job explaining all the options

[@rajahferrier7475]

Massive decision for Doug Polk there.

[@luisruizdiaz2242]

You talk to much brother

[@danielchesee3895]

I spoke to Vanessa about this at a group dinner a few days later. She said she felt she couldn't fold as it was A7 or AA.

[@j.pam.9549]

Keep these analysis going!

[@billyjack3361]

Too much talking. Just show the hand.

[@Apokalypseplease]

Too much commenting. Just watch the video.

[@BigRedOne1978]

Does Aces over 7s not beat 7s over Aces? I don't understand the thought process. All indicators say fold. Quads is the only hand should could have lost or am I in the wrong about something.

[@aerotus888]

U too dumb bro

[@sal78sal]

by calling, the AA was just saying, I dont believe your bluff.

[@podunkest]

Man I just stumbled across this thanks to the algorithm, super excellent analysis and commentary! Subbed! I like your style. Also, Vanessa is a super classy player, I appreciate people who are graceful in defeat.

[@alfredotto7525]

Played in a game once in Reno, caught 4 jacks thought i had it in the pocket. Dude flopped 4 kings on the river .

[@ruelpile]

Really great analysis. Keep it up!!

[@justinspadafore4991]

How did she have a 2 percent chance to win ? It showed the other A being folded does I’m not take in account of that ?

[@juegacomocampeon4493]

Great breakdown. Tremendous playing (and poker facing)

[@freddyfox5002]

Such a great, and easy to understand analysis

[@exbankerbob1]

Great video. Why do you switch to black and white from time to time.

[@darthrage2464]

The play by play guys and Phil kept talking about the Ace of hearts. It was clearly folded early. But good video. Baumann's shocked face about Selbst's hand was great.

[@patrickmaline4258]

you picked a good one to talk about. selbst is fun to watch. so talented.

[@puredeadmagicman9652]

Phenomenal hand review Phil. You really broke that down good 👌🏻

[@tumbleweedconnection7906]

Phil makes a great point about it being early in the tournament and both players know that the other is very talented and on that board it's highly unlikely that either one is on a pure bluff or not strong bc as phil says they don't want to risk a lot of chips against another strong pro without a very strong hand this early on when there will be opportunities to accumulate chips against weaker players and in better spots.

[@spicekid2582]

If you did not know what hands they had. Could of both been playing A7s ?

[@ejlaffsalot1382]

Don't get it. Rosen folded an ace so how did we get a 2% chance at one point after quads show up?

[@tokarastrait2323]

This istantly became my favourite poker hand ever. Selbst is really one of the best ever

[@m1keyfreshhh256]

The problem when you check the turn is that when they fire back at you, you get trapped into thinking it’s a bluff or semi-bluff. You sort of devalue the fact you could be behind. Obv with AA boat your never thinning your behind but I’m saying in other situations also

[@JAMsPop51]

I am NOT a Selbst fan but listening to your terrific and easy to follow analysis - I have to agree that these two players played the hand as best as possible - UP TO the call. Selbst was NEVER going to fold this despite AWL her theatrics to the contrary. She simply didn't have it in her. I might have changed my mind about her a little bit if she did. I am sure that she would do the same/similar again if it came up.

[@ivandrag0502]

Why overbet the river? Why not just a large bet, like 2/3 or 3/4 of the pot? Could someone explain please? Because the opponent’s response makes the range more polarized and gives you more certainty you’re not up against bluff? Meaning your opponent would only raise an over bet with absolute nuts?

[@papadwarf6762]

Greed

[@papadwarf6762]

The check raise on turn means she probably had a monster hand . Which she did so when a good player calls and shows aggression they also have a monster knowing you have a monster . Therefore she had to have quads

[@kamcashman]

Rosen folded A-6 preflop She was dead out of the gate

[@boardmandave]

I thought I was pretty good at poker but listening to this makes me realise I'm a complete noob

[@richard7645]

Don't sell yourself short

[@eyang7]

Why does selbst have a 2% on the turn? The a is already out? 😅

[@robertwebster1112]

Hi Guys. Shop looks great. Just wondering are Your Canadian views able to win the S10.

[@djones2170]

I'm a little confused, shouldn't Selbst have been drawing dead once the turn came with the 7 since the other ace got folded, it shows she still had a 2% chance at that point and I'm wondering if I'm missing something

[@mnm1273]

Those odd calculators often don't take into account all the folded cards.