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[@SwerzelTheMorzencule]

Dang, that beginning got me feeling emotional. Baalorlord is so good at addressing important issues in such a kind and comforting but at the same time direct and factual way. This cozy channel is always a respite from the mundane and the pain, but when the night is darkest, you really appreciate that tiny sliver of moonlight that shines brighter in the context of it all. Thanks Baalorlord. Your appeal lies not merely in your gameplay prowess, but in the way you approach the world and teach others to do the same.

[@HabingerOD]

That first silent run was insane

[@bloker86]

That was one of the silliest Silent runs I've ever seen. Why not just become a poison deck at the end?

[@FALCONLICK]

8 days in with a streak like this. Intense

[@MichaelNerman]

Baalor's right about Nilrys Codex. The odds of getting a specific card in Defect's pool is simply 3/71.

[@Buenz.]

Since you can't see repeat cards, it is 1/71 + 1/70 + 1/69 to see any specific card from Nilrys, which is slightly better odds than 3/71. But I like to use the 50/50 line, you either get it or you don't

[@MichaelNerman]

@Buenz. That's wrong. Imagine there were only four cards in the pool. Your approach would make the odds 1/4+1/3+1/2, which is greater than 100%. The second card has a 1/71 chance of being Amplify, since the first card might have been Amplify.

[@pianoplayer1262]

Yes this is called the inclusion exclusion principle. 3/71 is right if no repeats are possible, else it would be a little bit less (as each missed card brings you no closer to a hit).

[@Buenz.]

@@MichaelNerman thanks for the correction, math checks out

[@DavidCrawford-h7r]

@@Buenz. Pretty rare to add things in probabilities like that. In this case, you are essentially drawing three times without replacement. The odds of the first card not being amplify are 70/71, if the first card is not amplify the odds of the second card not being amplify are 69/70, and for the third 68/69. So you’ve got the odds of not getting amplify as (70×69×68) / (71×70×69). Cancel out the 70 and 69 from the top and bottom and that leaves 68/71, ∴ the odds of getting amplify are 3/71.

[@mind.journey]

First!