Anastasiya Shapochkina - Grain. Energy. Fuel. There's Nothing Russia won’t Weaponize in Order to Win

GUEST: Anastasiya Shapochkina - Founder and president of Eastern Circles, and energy industry expert.
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INTRO:
Grain. Energy. Fuel. There seems to be nothing Russia won’t weaponize to achieve its imperialistic and expansionist ambitions. But are all these strategies now failing? Will Russia face a perfect storm of battlefield losses combined with losses in its hybrid economic warfare?
#AnastasiyaShapochkina #ukraine #ukrainewar #russia #zelensky #putin #propaganda #war
#disinformation #hybridwarfare #foreignpolicy #communism #sovietunion #ussr
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SPEAKER:
Anastasiya Shapochkina is Founder and president of Eastern Circles, she has 11 years of experience in consulting and energy industry, where she worked on companies, technologies and market analysis in the renewable energy, utilities, nuclear energy, and e-mobility. She led development of international cross-industry partnership research projects on these subjects and represented business in European industrial and research associations. Anastasiya is a lecturer on geopolitics in Sciences Po Paris since 2012, focusing on the role of business in the EU-Russia relations. Anastasiya is author of articles on the geopolitics and geoeconomics in the Former Soviet Union, she has regular TV and radio appearances. Anastasiya graduated from Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, German, and European Studies Program.
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LINKS:
easterncircles...
/ anastasiya-shapochkina...
cges.georgetow...
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
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[@rolandscales9380]

Wow. Anastasiya Shapochkina isn't necessarily a first-language English speaker, but she speaks it more quickly, more fluently, than I can. I even have a job keeping up in my mother tongue. Very impressed.

[@GMT_400]

Thanks. Good discussion. Energy topics and energy policies have always been my favorite.

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍

[@cenccenc946]

The last western oil service company SLB left russia, and suddenly the oil production cuts were announced, fuel shortages started being reported, and a lot of other problems popped-up.

[@kti5682]

After the crash of the soviet union its oil production dipped and some argue that the crash happened due to oil production then western oil companies entered Russia and production picked up again. Now that they leave let's see whether Russia takes a nosedive again. But who knows China may help out.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

@@kti5682China doesn’t have that much experience in oil & gas extraction. At least that I know of.

[@kti5682]

@@grahamstrouse1165 Interesting to hear, I read that there was some cooperation going on. I don't know how that looked like.

[@leannevandekew1996]

Great discussion.

[@MonteRosa849]

Jonathan, as always you bring to us the most informative guests who are able to give us the current and best available version of the truth regarding the state of affairs in Ukraine. Thank you very much. 🇺🇦✌️

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@LowenKM]

Yep, thx again for yet another in-depth report, and Anastasia is really a gem! BTW, sounds like China is indirectly, and cynically exploiting Putin's ill-conceived war in Ukraine to turn Russia into another dependent 'vassal-state'!

[@johnfor7522]

​@@SiliconCurtainmy friend Russia plays big role in end times look at Catholic prophecies look at west promoting LGBT turning boys into girls and vice versa

[@StepDub]

Great, interview as always. The depth and knowledge of both the oil industry and the money markets on display here is phenomenal. What is especially interesting is the contrasting of the “brave face” that Russia tries to present and the real impact of sanctions and the price cap. Thank you.

[@vaataja]

This guest was a very good find by Jonathan. 👍

[@juanalvarez9935]

and the cadency of anastasiya explanation is like machine gun 🙂

[@markbrown2749]

An informative, and equally, a fun interview. Jonathan, you certainly had an easy job. Toss this woman a question, and we get an hour of interesting analysis given with bubbly personality. .

[@JustinTimeEnglishClip]

Yes, great insight and information. Thank you both so much 🙂

[@strezztechnoid]

With the heavy use of petroleum and diesel fuels to operate a military at war, I could see fossil fuels becoming impossible to produce as they rely on process elements to crack oil that are not produced in Russia.

[@lovyrituraj]

oh my god where do people like you come from? can you read or write cracking petroleum and refining it not rocket science vey low tech

[@strezztechnoid]

Glad people are coming to gripes with the lack of moderating principles for many people in power or represent the interests of their country. When you can ask, "What makes you believe 'fill in the blank' has a moderating principle that restricts the actions or behavior of 'fill in the blank' in a reasonable or responsible manner?" The oil-igarchs are insane with power and wealth. They'd rather burn it down than give it up.

[@Nobleheart111]

Good. Let it BURN.

[@dlmsarge8329]

I agree change is drastically needed, in our economy and our politics. BUT before we advocate for burning it all down we need to look at small, local examples of institutions abandoning their responsibilities to see what life would be like without our democratic institutions. ie Portland, San Francisco, L.A. Initiatives like "defund the police" or ignoring street crime and what that does to every day people's quality of life. Some folks who advocate to " burn it down" think their iPhones will still work, that there will be food in grocery stores and that garbage won't pile up in the streets.

[@vasileterente8441]

First like 👍🏻💪🏻☘️🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦💓

[@Beornstark]

Another insightful one. Thank you both!

[@letyong2940]

Coming up!!! coffee for you !!!! Keep it up!!!!

[@joaquinpelfortevergreen8893]

I really love how Anastasiya articulates its speach , it shows determination and strength also she is very well informed. Congrats

[@sigmundsilber2210]

A transcript would be great.

[@mvjh2277]

39:42 hydraulic system failure

[@julianmcgee5741]

V intelligent guest.

[@rochcarothers-ts3jx]

Yes, remember who invaded 🇷🇺

[@Nobleheart111]

Never forget.

[@rochcarothers-ts3jx]

@@Nobleheart111✅

[@ricardojames2004]

You mean to say who pre-empted, didn't you?

[@Nobleheart111]

You think Ukraine was planning to invade Russia?@@ricardojames2004

[@nildex34]

Her enthusiasm for economics is infectious. She takes something inherently dull and bland and explains it in a clear and engaging way.

[@tvwatcher1883]

-great insight

[@CatalystD9]

💙💛🔱🔥

[@deandimattia4516]

Very interesting, informative and important. Suggest breaking down the dialogue into smaller focused chunks, managing the pace.

[@ptonpc]

Another reason we should be giving Ukraine everything it needs as soon as we can. Equipment, training, infrastructure, parts, help building up Ukraine's own indigenous industries. The sooner Russia is broken, the better for the world.

[@deanejoyce5393]

Exemplary 👏

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@sumiland6445]

💛💙💜💙💛 🇺🇦 🌏 🇺🇸

[@gerhardvanderpoll7378]

The lady is a ⚡Live Wire⚡Conveying ⚡heavy currents of ⚡⚡ Intelligence and broad ranging insights...She strips all bullshit from the bone...No X-ray required if she is around to do the diagnosis....

[@mchozen2958]

I too would like a copy of that highlighted transcript 😉 Дякую! Слава Икраїні🇨🇦🇺🇦

[@stephyatse]

Excellent topic, great guest, but, please excuse me for criticism … Anastasla speaks very fast, with a thick accent. And each time she makes a point, she drops her voice and scrambles. Frustrating not to be able to hear/understand what she had to say . 😢

[@deanejoyce5393]

You can follow along using the transcript or use the podcast feature. The podcast feature takes a little time to set up, but once you do it you can skip, rewind, jump back to any place you wish, much like an audiobook. It is worth the hassle of setting up, especially if you are listening on your way to work 🙏

[@dakrontu]

Putin is analogous to an AI programmed to achieve a goal at any cost. The problem with the goal is that it is erroneously specified, because humans aren't good at doing that. And so, if the goal is to be achieved, it can come at the cost of the total destruction of the entity whose aim is to achieve it. One can argue that total self-destruction of said entity renders the victory entirely moot. But the AI has not been told that, so on it goes. Well, it's not an AI, it's Putin. But the point is the same. It is equally useful to think of Trump and Kim and others as AIs chasing goals whose success comes at the destruction of entire societies and, given that these 'AIs' are embedded within such societies, inevitably renders all their victories moot. There is a word that can describe the pursuit of such pointless goals: Selfishness. What it comes down to, is that leaders cannot always have what they want. Unfortunately there are scant means to disengage them from control when they err. Like sneaky AIs, they have already worked out how to scupper anyone's chance of hitting the off switch.

[@deanejoyce5393]

Putin is not an AI .A better analogy might be a monkey with a grenade

[@gaborszabo3110]

Jonathan, you could try to invite Kotkin or Guriev to the channel and ask them why is the West so stupid that we are constantly saying 'sanctions don't work' and things like that, why are we bashing ourselves all the time when it's clear that the West is so much more rich and clever than the russian idiots... How could it be possible that the West calculates something and the russain make a counter-calculation and they would be right, not us??? If that was true, I guess cars like BMW, Porsche, Audi and Mercedes (the best cars in the world) would be produced in russia. Why do we think that russains are cleverer than us in any means? I think that's a huge mistake, we should just admit that we are fighting very stupid people here, although maybe people who are ready to sacrifice their life (which makes them even more stupid, really russains wanna die for Ukraine??? I can't believe that their life is so worthless, they have a huge country on their own, why do they even care about Ukraine???)

[@SiliconCurtain]

I have 🫣 busy men../

[@RamonEstevez-g6m]

Anti Russian bias.

[@netxixis8069]

The main thing is not to lose your balance and fall off)))

[@janiaf]

If possible, please ask her to speak a little slower. She uses these little sprints in which you can’t hear the start and ending of words and sentences. Especially in combination with the higher tones of the audio it becomes a bit undefined.

[@deanejoyce5393]

You can use the podcast feature if you are finding it difficult to hear or follow. Once set up you get a lot of control over the audio, including speed and being easily able to go back and forth through the audio

[@peters6591]

This is an excellent interview worth listening to more than once. No lack of straightforward corruption in President Putin's economic plan?

[@bevr944]

gobbledegook

[@deanejoyce5393]

Yawn

[@yogi-um1eh]

gg

[@SiliconCurtain]

?

[@piseag458]

​@@SiliconCurtaingreat guest?! 😉😁

[@pluto-pw2yd]

Hard to understanf if you're not on cocaine

[@deanejoyce5393]

Lol. Try using the podcast feature. It is well worth it and you can have more control than the KZbin functionality

[@netxixis8069]

And Ukraine uses "only one embroidery" in the war, and how well it turns out, they win according to you. Anecdote: Two Russian officers are sitting on Khreshchatyk, drinking coffee, looking at a tank with the letter "Z", one pays in rubles and says to the other, "But we lost the information war, can you imagine?)) Ответить

[@SiliconCurtain]

Какая-то ерунда не понятная…

[@HeBeDrGB]

This woman speaks way too fast for someone using English as a second language.

[@SiliconCurtain]

Sorry - I’ll try to get a closed caption transcript done!

[@mvjh2277]

Studied at Georgetown University, Washington D.C. I’m reading transcript now.

[@dannydetonator]

@SiliconCurtain She seems too excited to share her wisdom on your unparalleled platform. As a Latvian, i had no trouble whatsoever, i've lived in France too :-D

[@lynnedwyer6716]

WHAT? MAYBE SHE COULD SLOW UP.

[@kenadams5504]

You can adjust the playback speed by clicking the circular icon on the top right corner of your screen.

[@albertamodia294]

Ukraine cannot win this war. U guys are ukrainion. Stop the war.

[@brucegenhofer8545]

Unlistenable

[@andrewpaulhart]

Someone needs to tell her that talking twice as fast doesn’t mean that she conveys twice the information. It means that the audience understands half as much.

[@renatoantonelli3894]

Sadly l have to agree ! I have been persevering for 5/10 mins but truly l am struggling despite being an avid follower of silicone curtain .

[@cenccenc946]

I set her speed to 0.75 times, and she still sounds natural and much more clear.

[@mvjh2277]

Reading along with transcript.

[@dannydetonator]

Funny, that while english is my 2nd language i llearned after finishing school and haven't used it since left England in 2011, i can understand her perfectly. She seems too excited or nervous, probably practiced english in / with US..

[@deanejoyce5393]

Well, my English sucks a big banana, and I understood her😂😂

[@liberty_and_justice67]

What a wonderful idea! Wish Russia success in its internal struggle against competence 😂

[@roelpiepenbrink700]

Extremely informative. Thanx to both of you 👍

[@markfischer3626]

The US government needs to tell all of the energy sector companies that either they, their subsidiaries, and any affiliated companies quit all business in Russia or their companies, boards of directors, and senior managers will suffer the strongest sanctions the US can impose on them. They might also be subject to fines and criminal prosecution.

[@GMT_400]

I think some European governments need to tell themselves to get off the LNG spot market on the Title Transfer Facility based pricing so they can reduce their russian LNG gas purchases by not having to look there to fill. Big buisness for russia and europe as evidenced by the names of some of their LNG icebreaker boats, Кристоф Де Маржери. Both ideas, mine and yours, would squeeze them hard.

[@lovyrituraj]

thats why more and many more countries are directly trading bilaterally avoiding US dollar BS, de dollarisation in next 20 yrs is inevitable….keep rolling the dice and this will happen

[@junkscience6397]

@@lovyrituraj Sure sure. Same thing the same people were saying...10 years ago? During the absolute best of economic times, with globalization in full swing and the lowest costs of borrowing, all of which is now GONE, nobody "de-dollarized". Why not? (It might have something to do with the 80,000,000,000,000.00 USD worth of "Eurodollar" debts that governments, companies and investment funds all owe each other! So yeah, clear your Dollar debt...let's watch you implode when your "alternative" currencies all turn out to be rubbish. lol.

[@fatfeline1086]

Not a lawyer myself, so perhaps this idea is not feasible. But, cannot there be some sort of lawsuit against the oil services firms that remain in Russia for crimes against humanity on behalf of the Ukrainian civilians who have died or suffered other horrors at the hands of the Russians? is that really so far fetched? And if it isnt, would not even the threat of it be enough to get them to leave Russia?

[@piseag458]

How too will reparations to Ukraine be extracted from Russia,this will affect economy have repercussions on BRICS and multipolar world not to mention many mysterious outbreaks of fires in industrial plants,warehouses ect..

[@dianetourje1359]

Once agaiñ, I'm writing to my senator!

[@barrylane1055]

Really outstanding!!! It answered so many questions for me. Thank You Silicon Curtain!!

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍

[@DEVILFISH1122]

She talks so fast you can’t understand halve of what she says especially with an accent

[@rolandscales9380]

I slowed the sound down to 75%. That's closer to my normal talking speed. I was raised in Gloucestershire.

[@dannydetonator]

I was rised.. grew up in Latvia, spent 7 years in England and left over 10y ago. I had no trouble understanding every sentence. That's the paradox, second-language speakers understand each other better. I think she doesn't realise than native speakers might not, seen it many times. Too excited))

[@dannydetonator]

*that ;-)

[@juanalvarez9935]

wow...never heard such expert insight view like today from anastasiya....many thanks jonathan, perfect job as always...th issue with indirect china involving is very bad news for UA and the West..I think in the US are intelligence people pretty aware of this and they have lever how to explain china not to do it...

[@Nick-from-norfolk]

Thanks, fascinating!

[@madeleinesuzette]

Thank you both again ...Many interesting points!!

[@16252]

interesting, thanks

[@GMT_400]

I actually went and calculated the savings August a year ago when Habeck said the extention of 3 npp’s would only save 2% of gas use. I added the combined output of the three at a 90% capacity factor and got the million megawatthours per year. Then, since the gas is about 7000 cubic feet per MWhr (accounting for the conversion to electrons through gas turbine), and at that time Germany used an average of 8.6 billion cubic feet of gas per day, I got the gas savings. 7%, not 2. Water under the bridge now. Wind turbines average 30% capacity factor. How many windmills in 2% of gas savings?

[@deanejoyce5393]

? A better question might be “ What is the average cost per megawatt of a wind turbine farm?” It depends upon it’s location and the Grid infrastructure and the technology used ( horizontal axis as opposed to vertical axis) The cost is 2007 was about 1 million USD per megawatt. In 2021 This has risen to a range from $1 million USD ( because of better materials and infrastructure) to about $3 million USD… Offshore farms cost about $3.5 million USD per megawatt. Suzlon ( one of the largest wind turbine manufacturers and an Indian based company ) would gladly use Russian owned Rupees to build in Russia 😁

[@grahamstrouse1165]

The problem with Germany’s wind farms is that they’re unreliable. Every wind farm in the world uses fossil fuel as a backup to stabilize its energy output.

[@TotalRookie_LV]

On the fuel shortages in Russia, that is not the result of sanctions and prices alone, it's also caused by war - railroads are busy moving ammunition, armour and soldiers - those are given priority. Besides trade has switched to China, and railroads were not designed to carry such volumes in that direction, they are lacking capacity. As the result civilian cargo experiences long delays and businesses suffer losses, especially, if those are goods with short expiration date, which still have not delivered, instead they are rotting in railroad cars somewhere.

[@Thriall]

Clear cut analisys of Russia's economy, very informative, thanks!

[@WalterBurton]

👍👍👍

[@DarkestAlice]

Thank you, for another excellent episode with Anastasiya Shapochkina. I especially appreciate all the female voices you have provided a platform for. I admire all those intelligent women, who - unfortunately - during "normal" times have less exposure, and during wartime even less so. Very important, to get an opportunity to listen to them, so thank you very much for your content. 🇺🇦 Заради життя кожного українця! 🇺🇦

[@SiliconCurtain]

👍👍👍

[@piushalg5041]

Very weii done by both of you. Thanks.

[@bigman23DOTS]

I take it Russia has a diamond in their reserve banker interesting to learn she was warned about her family’s health should she choose to leave!

[@halmoore8558]

👍🍺

[@trogdortpennypacker6160]

Uhh as analyst in the O&G industry for a major I can tell you her knowledge is quite poor. I'd recommend Sergey Vakulenko at the Carnegie Institute because she is talking nonsense. Painful when people outside their wheelhouse decide they are experts and consult. I'm sorry but this was not a good interview.

[@dannydetonator]

If thaat's so, right now you are not adding anything to conversation. Statement like that needs arguments, the best of which would be coming back here and pointing out the errors with the correct facts. At least try, please.

[@sleepinglady2778]

Too fast for comprehension

[@kencole4850]

You have a strong accent. Please speak more slowly and clearly.

[@lynnedwyer6716]

OFF YOU GO. CANT KEEP UP.

[@paulinereich1242]

Speaker talks too fast. Can't understand a word!!!

[@deanejoyce5393]

Try using the podcast feature. It gives you more control over the audio. You can adjust speed and jump around where you wish

[@4700_Dk]

Russia views this war as existential. They aren’t giving up anytime soon.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

The longer it lasts the deeper the hole they dig for themselves.

[@paulozimek276]

@@grahamstrouse1165 I believe you have it the opposite way around.

[@xenocampanoli815]

Man, you are an exception, because I know you and I've listened to some pretty good presentations and interviews by you. That being said, petition to like and subscribe at the beginning of any video is more and more a quick decision point to unlike and permanently block the channel. Please.

[@janechambers9980]

A very sad episode. We all know what Putin says--nothing here tells us the truth of Russian economy. I amused to a better analysis from you,

[@alvinmendoza313]

CIA hack

[@SiliconCurtain]

Idiot.

[@ugiswrong]

Let’s go Russia, Earth LOVES winners

[@liberty_and_justice67]

Delusion runs strong with this one😂

[@dlmsarge8329]

Let me finish the syllogism for the o.p. : Earth loves winners Russia is not winning Therefore , Earth does not love Russia

[@kenadams5504]

Russia is "winning ".!