Dissecting "Pick-A-Path" Levels in Super Mario Maker 2 [UNCLEARED LEVELS]

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ヽ(〃･ω･)ﾉFeel free to make fun of people who ask questions answered in the descriptions.

[@zombiewarlock]

I would love to see the 'Official Reason for Uncleared' more, its a pretty neat idea

[@fistfulofgroovy9746]

I'll give it to you right now... 90% just strait up suck monkey nuts and 10% were too hard. There, you got your reasons :)

[@Tufukins]

Yeah for real, it would be Hella useful

[@walugusgrudenburg3068]

95% are just because it's set to 90 days only and they're relatively new and bad.

[@CausticMonarch]

Strongly agree

[@mistakenmadness]

The official verdict is incredibly entertaining I agree more

[@Spunney]

for the math stuff at 10:00 the answer is no, it doesnt make a difference. yes the probability is higher that it's in the right cluster, but youre still only picking one at a time so that arbitrary distinction doesnt matter. if you started raw with a 10 pipe pick-a-path, theres a 90% chance that the winning pipe isnt the first one, but that doesnt mean you have a higher probability of winning by skipping it

[@kiyokiyoko]

this is it chief

[@Theterra4]

Yeah exactly, its all the same chance to be the right pipe. The only thing to consider would be finding the fastest route to check each pipe based on where you spawn in the room

[@shmovinnn]

unless he was forced to pick either left or right side pipes (in which case the right side would be the better choice, having an overall higher probability of containing the correct pipe) the probability of each pipe being the correct one is the same, and therefore when doing each pipe individually does not matter which you do first

[@TheUnknownsShow]

Technically, since it takes less time to check the pipes on the left, as Mario enters from the left, it would take the least time on average to find the winning pipe by checking left-to-right, assuming that the winning pipe is random with an equal probability of being any pipe.

[@matteotschesche249]

True, but assuming every pipe has the same probability to be correct, it's more efficient to check the closest pipe first.

[@dudz1898]

Normal People doing walkies: Damn, I pressed the run button by accident SimpleFlips not doing walkies: Why am I not running?!

[@caniplayzz]

You could just disable the run button

[@mainzer45]

@@caniplayzz but sometimes he needs to pick shit up

[@CycleMantis]

The first level is still is still one of my favorites, Simple had great energy throughout. Especially the Boom Boom moment 5:08. And it's the origin of the 'Official Reason for Uncleared' ! love it

[@XSpamDragonX]

That J-spin Triple was gorgeous. I just want to make sure you know somebody appreciated that. Edit: It would have been a Triple line clear if he didn't have that one mino missing.

[@flightlesschicken7769]

10:00 the music in the pipe math section is very Professor Layton esque and I cannot think of any music more fitting

[@andrewscott8735]

The ice wall jump level has a txh instead of thx. He has gone beyond our plane of understanding

[@27holyman]

I litterally gasped out loud at that J spin at 27:41 Yes LeFlips I did like it.

[@UltraPrimal]

3:04 For some reason I found this really cute! Aww! I love you, SimpleFlips! 🥰

[@luihi9780]

Yoo when i was attempting uncleared I played that absurd pick-a-pipe level. I gave up after two minutes due to me not liking to torture myself, but it's always interesting to see levels I've played pop in these videos.

[@RosieEyes]

10:06 what you're describing is a little-known mathematical phenomenon called Paine's Law. Colloquially, it's known as the phrase "being efficient is inefficient", but it's more accurately defined as "trying to optimise any kind of dumb shit doesn't make it any less DUMB SHIT". Thankfully, there are empirical results to suggest that the time spent attempting to be efficient is more or less equal to the time than the gained by any efficiency, so any aforementioned "DUMB SHIT" can be approached by either "efficient" or "inefficient" means with equal justification. Similar phenomena, such as the cunk-cost fallacky, often confounds the results seen when looking at problems like these; research continues to progress in this area. For now, the best thing to do when confronted with such a problem is to commit to the cunk-cost fallacky, as is human nature.

[@Unklethebob]

I missed the “TWOOOO!” With extra reverb. Now you gotta make two next week because the balance is upset

[@JooshReact]

10:22 here's another variable you forgot to take into account: the viewers. If you are the Time-Wasting Prince King and it would have been faster to try the right side and get it correct, you could have explained your thought process AFTER your ingenious plan worked, then the audience would be more entertained and convinced that you are the biggest brain 200iq brain blast brain man brain the internet has ever been blessed with. but who cares its a mario level

[@terryaki7545]

Simple change your switch theme to black or I’ll die.

[@super67627]

I like how he is categorizing the levels in why is uncleared, that's a pretty good idea. I would like to see that more in future videos. Keep it up dad! You are the best!

[@VendyVendy]

When it says "GO" in the DK Tetris theme, it looks like Donkey Kong has really big glowing balls.

[@typecasto]

Math answer: You do have a 66% chance of finding it on the right, but since it takes 2x as long, we divide that chance by 2, so now you have a likelihood coefficient of 0.33 on each half, which makes sense since there's an equal chance of it being in every pipe to begin with. That being said, we've not taken into account how long it takes to run to each pipe. The fastest method would have been to just fucking do it and stop thinking about it. The 2nd fastest method would have been to check the closest pipes first, then go outwards. Think of it like oot randomizer. You usually go for the closest/easiest checks first, assuming they all have the same chance of being a key item.

[@Terchuy]

9:32 - Optimization: Ignoring the psychology of the Maker, the fastest search method is to check 17, 18, and 19, then alternate between sides for the next 6 pipes. This minimizes the distance you travel if one of them turns out to be correct. Assuming, of course, there's a correct answer at all.

[@BinaryClock]

no idea about the probability problem, but on the practical side, if you're already asking for help: play the level co-op and have someone stay in the ON/OFF switch room. if any level deserves cheese it was that one.

[@MaxMckayful]

The 66.6% side has a 1/8 chance of picking the correct pipe, assuming the correct pipe is there (66.6% chance of that) The 33.3% side has a 1/4 chance of picking the correct pipe, assuming the correct pipe is there (33.3% chance of that) What SimpleFlips did was stumble into conditional probabilities, and also show how it can be so easy to mislead with statistics. The overall chance is still 1/12 for each pipe (1/8 * 0.666 = 1/12, and 1/4 *0.333 = 1/12)

[@MisterLN]

i love so much when simple's minds breaks 5:10 its so funny

[@corpserule1582]

Adding to Spunney's Correct explanation, your best strategy would be to take the closest pipe, as it would take the lowest amount of game-time to check, bringing you closer to to the winning pipe quicker. Of course, this is assuming the pick a pipe is completely devoid of human biases, a completely unassessable psyche

[@MrBlinky10101]

6:19 I fucking love simple going "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"

[@OvermasterP]

Wow an episode with a cameo from both blurryflips and The Council, what a great episode

[@Vilovithg--]

"boo on the mushroom" "If only there was a way to survive a hit" -sampleflops

[@Rahat-tw8vg]

I'm not even done the walkies video yet!! Simple content FLIPS

[@bhull242]

Assuming all pipes have an equal possibility of leading to progress and that one of the pipes does lead to progress, then the right does have a better chance of containing the correct pipe. That said, the time-wasting principle is even more correct. Overall, if you’re using the process of elimination, there is no real difference made if you switch up the order you check all of the pipes until you find the right one, and trying to recalculate the probabilities partway through just wastes more time than it saves.

[@TheYuri2102]

Im pretty sure the pipe thing is just the monty hall problem, since theres a 50/50 chance the right pipe will be either to the right or to the left, and theres less possible pipes on the left the 50% chance of being right is concentrated on a smaller number of pipes, so he should check to the left, the side with less options

[@MrYonnn]

Hey Simple, You're right that there is a higher chance of the correct pipe being on the right side. But since you still have to check each pipe one by one, it doesn't matter. Your left and right groups only matter if you're choosing left vs right. But you instead need to choose pipe 1 vs pipe 2, vs pipe 3... vs pipe 25. tldr: the groups don't matter, only individual pipes

[@theflamelord]

So the obvious math in pick a dick is that the side with more pipes has a higher chance of having the correct pipe because it has more options, but to get into the actual stats that say so, each individual pipe will have a 1/12 chance of being correct on either side BUT by splitting them you change the odds (See the monty hall problem for an unrelated stats thing that shows things that don't seem like it makes a difference in odds might actually) the left side has a 1/3rd chance of containing the correct pipe while the right side has a 2/3rd chance (4/12 and 8/12 reduced) , so by multiplying the individual pipe chance by the side chance we can see that the left pipes have a 1/36 chance of being correct each, while the right set has a 1/18 chance each, meaning the odds favor the right pipes more.

[@alexander_bone]

17:19 He just hit simple with the TXH The THX is now evolving Bruh

[@LaughingOrange]

Statistically it doesn't matter where you go, it will always be the last pipe you check.

[@HeydarBABA]

For the math stuff at 10:00 Some people would say every pipe has the same chance of being correct but they are not considering that we know the creator is an idiot. By the principle of Idiot-Laziology, we could say when the creator was making the level, they put the pipe somewhere around the middle because they thought a player would start from the left side or the right side and they wanted to maximize the time players would spend on their level, so having said this the probability of a middle pipe being the correct one is higher than the side pipes, which means that in order to spend the least amount of time on this level you had to check the middle pipes first.

[@jordandrinkwater1345]

New video idea: SM64 Manhunt Simpleflips tries to do a speedrun of Mario 64 while another player hunts him down. The hunter has infinite lives but the speedrunner has one life.

[@YEs69th420]

The Council of SimpleSix was the true villain all along

[@Derflabals]

every individual pipe has the exact same chance as any other individual pipe to be correct, but it is more likely that the group of 8 has the correct pipe than the group of 4

[@Nikception]

There is a higher chance that the pipe is on the right, but there are also more pipes on the right, so, the chance that any specific pipe on the right is the right one is the same as the chance that any specific pipe on the left is the right one. In other words, it doesn't matter whether you go left or right.

[@Bosstrad]

In real thwomp fashion.... such amazing wordplay xD

[@shyguy8024]

Simple is one failed career away from being your depressed math teacher who still hopes that his students are learning

[@lt.finglefubledingler1972]

9:50 since the pipe is completely random, yes there is a 66% chance that the correct pipe is to the right and a 33% chance that it is to the left. This data is somewhat irrelevant since there is an 8.3333333333333% chance that any remaining pipe is correct. In a blind speedrun it would be correct to try pipes 17-19 before pipes 9-12 since they are faster to get to but that does not increase the probability of them being correct at all, it only reduces the amount of your life you waste on this level if 17, 18, or 19 happen to be the correct pipe This challenge is based on random chance so while it is faster to check the pipes closest in proximity, they have the same probability as any other pipe and without knowing the correct pipe, you have an 8.3333333333% chance of getting it correct on your next guess regardless of which direction you check.

[@jonmanz181]

Simpleflips be like: " sometimes my genius...it's almost frightening"

[@Fusiondax1]

I would say the time you spend thinking about it isn't "wasted time" because you spent it actively doing/thinking about something, but that's just my opinion anyway. ^-^

[@sirchameleon7501]

Thank you SimpleFlips Team (Or Simpeam, as we real fans say) for the amount and quality of content lately!

[@yurr7408]

yoday simplefather explains the basic theory of search algorithms to his children 8:35

[@WindlessZephyr]

I gotta say, this is nice to watch while grinding pest control

[@commie_dog_boy]

this 9-12 to 17-24 problem is the cunk cost fallacy in action

[@chair_overlord5399]

“why have I unleashed every horrible thing into the world” -pandora

[@ryantio9659]

couldn't you try to see where the thwomps fell from in the pick a pipe level, because it looked like the switch didn't activate for the correct one

[@stefanrabenstein3753]

If we assume all the pipes to be equally probable (i.e. we are not trying to guess which one the creator is more likely to choose), then the bigger cluster of untested pipes is more probable, yes. But since you can only check one pipe at a time anyway, there is no reason to test all pipes in one cluster before moving on to the other cluster. Instead you should always check the closest untested pipe, so start with the first three on the right side and alternate sides after. This way, at any point in time (until you find the correct pipe) you will have tested the most pipes possible and are thus, according to our assumption, you have the highest chance to have found the correct pipe compared to all other enumerations of the missing pipes.

[@stefanrabenstein3753]

Regarding our assumption: If we instead model this as a (repeatable) two player strategy game, where player HydradeZ has to choose a winning pipe, trying to maximize the expected time until SimpleFlips finds the winning pipe, and player SimpleFlips has to choose an order in which to check the pipes, trying to minimize the same expected time, with neither of them knowing what strategy the other is using, then I believe the "optimal strategy" (google Nash equilibrium if you are interested) for both players to be as follows. Note I'm tired and haven't "done the math" to ensure this believe is correct though. - HydradeZ chooses the i-th pipe as winning pipe with relative probability t_i, where t_i is the time SimpleFlips needs in order to reach the i-th pipe from the start of the level (relative probability means we scale such that the sum of probabilities is 1). - SimpleFlips successively checks the i-th of the untested pipes with relative probability 1/t_i, where t_i is once again the time needed for SimpleFlips to reach that pipe from the start of the level However, none of this matters since HydradeZ is most likely a buphead and does not know the optimal strategy, which in turn changes which strategy SimpleFlips should use.

[@dalkra99]

Damn. Didn’t realize simple was such a Tetris god.

[@lancelot5073]

I love multifilps and bonusflips.

[@argyIe_]

Damn that Tetris win got me hyped as FUCK.

[@Sechan1996]

Thats not realy how probabilitie works. Sure, there is a bigger chance on your right from your POV but they have all the same probability regardless, meaning you won't actually save time objectively. Another way to look at it and how your question was proposed you can look at it like this: You have 2 bags, one contains a 4 marbles and costs 10$, the other contains 8 marbles and costs 20$. you know that one bag contains a golden marble that you want. if your strategy is to buy the big one first, all 12 cases considered you spent (8 x 20$ + 4 x 30$)/12 = 23.33$ on average if your strategy is to buy the small one first, all 12 cases considered you spent (8 x 30$ + 4 x 10$)/12 = 23.33$ on average Conclusion: there is objectively no gain in any strategy, one might argue that taking the smaller might result in less money spent, but only if you make that decision once or twice and it actually has to pay out, but thats only luck and no gurantee.

[@piemaster310]

Simpleflips always seems so intelligent and then we hit something like the pipe math and all bets are off

[@WilliumBobCole]

"reason for uncleared" definitely needs to be a thing!

[@jared6343]

pick a path is probably one of the biggest reasons a lotta people think mario maker is bad and wasted potential

[@diggoran]

that first level is certified Schmoove Proof ™

[@Fronslin]

Tetris: Mission status: SICK

[@CheesioViewer]

As somebody who took like one stats course in college, I can confirm that you absolutely wasted your time trying to figure it out

[@si-ficentral9562]

Man I love your videos

[@trentmaas5230]

Did the KO’ed Mario’s look like pixel art for Foxy from FNAF to anyone else

[@gurn3y460]

Thank you simple flips

[@ashen_roses]

Guessing the first level creator has never heard of a fucking checkpoint. It's clearly designed with intent and designed well, at that, but that one detail heavily damages it

[@Infantry12345]

I don't think it matters because you could put the enter line anywhere. Sure, you came put of 16, but for the purposes of finding the next spot, that just means 16 isn't one of the spots. Like, if we're talking search algorithms you're kinda doing a binary tree search I guess? but thats better for sorting a list of things. If you just want to find the one answer out of a collection of options, unless you deploy some psychology I don't think clearing any pipe will make finding the next real one any faster. may as well just do them all in order to not skip one.

[@JakeBorchenko]

TETRIS BONUS YES

[@Torqegood]

"Not by man" I like that this implies level creators arn't men.

[@swiftsilver]

did anyone ever notice the "TXH" at 17:17

[@mythmakroxymore1670]

That first level’s probably better in multiplayer.

[@JayAreAitch]

1:54 what noise was that

[@bananaborealis6064]

Guy 15 in tetris just gave up and died

[@Foshling]

Cant yoshis flutterkick multiple times in a row in new soup?

[@delimiter2886]

It doesn't matter if the rigth or left side would be statisticly more likely to have the right pipe, as it would've be better to go one by one in the first place because it's easier to see were you checked...... Also the rigth side would've been more likely to have the correct pipe based on the believe that the correct pipe is within these 25 pipes to begin with, duh :u

[@kowalsounds]

on the baby challenge ice wall spike wall jump level it said TXH at the end instead of THX...

[@LovelyAlanna]

So simple is also a tetris god...

[@patricksweater5534]

If you picked the right 8 and are wrong, you waste 8 lives, but if you pick the left 4 and are wrong, you only waste 4 lives.

[@e_dt]

bro blurryflips is in this one? holy shit

[@li5up6]

Guess it'll be 2nd one in in the left side (10?)

[@Daniel-br4nc]

The start of official reasons for uncleareds

[@peteragurkis3590]

Monty hall problem simpleflips edition

[@flameninja_]

Can you make a video of you runecrafting in runscape for no reason other than me asking for it?

[@themanglenator1225]

You whuddup commenting for the algorthim, hope you're doing good Simple!

[@myguyrdb]

I think the answer to your statistics problem is not a statistician but a historian. You can predict the odds of where the pipe is but it does nothing to cancel out the fact that you still have a chance that any pipe you check will not be the correct pipe. A good historian, however, will cut down your time spent looking by keeping an effective count on what pipes have been checked. The level creator’s dumbassery and trickery would become mere child’s play.

[@HylianDefender]

Whenever I see the term "social experiment" it makes me think of scammers and spiteful people

[@Moo_Cactus]

Anyone notice that it said TXH instead of THX at 17:17 ? What could it mean? It is a mystery...

[@Kaliser-Ion]

When are we finally getting the Yugioh video we deserve?

[@fernquan6817]

You know these levels are boring when Simple starts doing math to entertain himself

[@zachywatcher2312]

my man marcus do be spitting facts as the best jagen

[@samborton6613]

Marcus

[@zachywatcher2312]

@@samborton6613 his profile pic

[@fnln3011]

"I remember when simpleflips turned his stream into a math class, great entertainer he is."

[@DaNewWrksOfMeh]

He secretly loves math

[@tavrosnitram]

in this video, i hired an astrophysicist to decide which pipe WILL lead me to the end of the level

[@SourBoy]

Anonymous astrophysicists always know statistics

[@maicoxmauler2825]

​@@SourBoy Can confirm. My dad works at NASA. At least that's what mom told me. He's anonymous to me.

[@bruhguy3770]

The chance of finding the right pipe is 7.5 trillion to 1!

[@BanditLeader]

@Square Zack it's a meme. Theres nothing toxic about it. You must be an offended stan

[@sacripudding4586]

@Square Zack Dreams evidence has been far too weak imo. That 19 page paper was pretty shit and seemed to have only been slapped together for the sake of seeming like a better response then it actually was

[@Kosmicd12]

hes just trying to bring puzzle solving into this """"""""puzzle solving""""""" level

[@jayhamilton6057]

Yo what up

[@AndratVO]

Yo what up

[@Rezeee]

Yo what up

[@AVeryNeatUsername]

Yo what up

[@gardfelt8137]

Yo what up

[@saje5821]

"Okay, I might have picked a baby's challenge" 15:57. That is a good sign of good level design b/c the title of the level in English is 'Wall Kick, Beginner Version"

[@SimpleFlips]

That's awesome. Thanks for pointing that out

[@SamCyanide]

Translator gang

[@laetablue1278]

Regarding the math and probability, it would be far more efficient to disregard both pipe options and instead move on to another level.

[@skullhammer9899]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned how he gamered everyone in Tetris at the end

[@incog0956]

I thought about saying something but didn't wanna spoil it for others

[@imchipjames]

I feel like he's leveled up a few times since the last time I saw him play. Those moves were clean.

[@seanquinn8082]

Man got so bored he literally reinvented the Gameshow Problem

[@SimpleFlips]

OMG you're fucking right. I did it again on accident

[@djstu10]

for the math stuff at 10:00 I actually have a PhD in time-wasting prince king. The right side has indeed a higher chance of containing the right pipe, but the one on the left could lead you to the love of your life. If we add the emotional burden you'd carry by giving up the love of your life, according to my new and updated calculations, choosing the left path has an expected value of EXACTLY 50%. This makes me think that the level creator took this in consideration while building the level, making it an authentic "Sucks balls" experience.

[@incog0956]

Me: haha yes, a funny comment about 4 pipes vs 8 pipes Me, after reading the comment: God I miss her so much

[@thenightjackal]

@@incog0956 satanic rituals aren't that hard to perform nowadays

[@incog0956]

@@thenightjackal what would I accomplish lol, she's not dead, just hates me because I was an asshole

[@seveneighths1278]

@@incog0956 Satanic rituals can fix that.

[@Xerem2sing]

SAF (Straight Adult Freedom) Wetstreak: 17 i started this to spite piplup guy, now they are gone, im stuck doing their job so i guess they got the last laugh

[@incog0956]

I applaud your work, but I miss Jet

[@SAZERU]

i too applaud your work. alas, wheres the penguin when you need him?

[@onescenewonder8904]

"YOU'RE NOT MY MUSHROOM!" put that shit on a shirt

[@armorelarmadura7807]

"Ugh fine, I guess you are my idiot mushroom. C'mere."

[@retrorebootmusic]

[@davysmith1934]

ah, this was cute :D

[@michaelhart420]

[@zapdomanic]

17:18 the incredibly rare TXH, variant of the household THX. Experts have debated the meaning of the TXH for quite some time, with a popular theory being that it could stand for “tanksh”, which doesn’t mean a damn thing, at least to our current knowledge. Perhaps the level creator had seen into the future and recovered knowledge of a new word, deciding to reveal it to the masses in an effort to cause mass confusion and overly long joke comments, in which case, some would argue, they succeeded. Of course, there are those who will argue that the TXH is simply a misspelling of the THX, which is especially likely, given how the level creator is not even a native English speaker. However, modern scientists have decided that this theory is “silly and presumptuous”, instead opting to take out another research grant in order to dissect the true meaning of the TXH. Stay tuned for their findings in the future.

[@KasioGames]

thx

[@Mattstak]

Commenting so that I can be notified of future developments in this field

[@LimeHunter7]

txh

[@Tufhhuyy]

txh

[@swiftsilver]

good to see I wasn't the only one who noticed

[@hughmungus8340]

Maths genuis here, you forgot to add Kurt Angle to the mix simple that's all.

[@doublespoonco]

There's an 141 and 2/3 chance of it being on the right, and a 8 and 1/3 chance of it being on the left

[@victora.5821]

4:31 Pandora moments after opening the box

[@mintyfreshness4363]

11:16 Hope after pandora tried to close that shit

[@theseepingcicada8448]

Lmao

[@nyanSynxPHOENIX]

Omfg, such underrated comments, lmao

[@fotnite_]

The statistician in me will actually flip a table if someone in the comments so much as mentions the Monty Hall problem

[@sc00tin7]

You have no idea how tempted I was to just reply with "monty hall problem"

[@HELLO-mx6pt]

Y know, since he was in the 16th door, we can model this with the Monty hall problem and- *gets hit with the flipped table*

[@thetoongrump9801]

More like the Monty Mole problem, am I right fellas? ...cuz it’s Mario

[@manuelblancotorrero1342]

Though! If you consider the time that takes to check a pipe (the left ones are checked faster because Mario starts on the left) you can consider time wasted as a variable and then it's similar to a processor having to pick what tasks it wants to do, with the most efficient way of doing so is taking care of the shorter tasks first, the ones that take the least ammount of time. It is more likely to find the right pipe FASTER if you check left to right in order as the further to the right the pipe is, the more time it takes you to go there and check it. Source: I'm a software engineer.

[@karlmarx2590]

I've been trying to understand that problem for a long ass time, can someone dumb it down for me?

[@Trelior]

"What is an uncleared level? A level that han't been cleared. Not by me. Not by god." Why the redundancy?

[@jeremyabbott4537]

Dude! SPOILERS FOR THE END OF THE SIMPLEFLIPS ANIME!

[@theguyman256]

@@jeremyabbott4537 dude it's literally in the opening monolog

[@jeremyabbott4537]

@@theguyman256 I meant SimpleFlips being God, it's a spoiler for the end of the anime

[@theguyman256]

He literally says that in the first episode....

[@horrisnorris6478]

He said "not by man, not by God!"