glad to see this channel reach 30k, you earned it brother. always concise and informative, appreciate that.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks mate!
@TheTriforce10010 ай бұрын
Same love the videos@@sirgog. Your accent is so funny. Sounds like "Headhantah"
@cetusipy10 ай бұрын
Informative, for sure. Concise? We must be using different dictionaries, because a guy reading every bullet point word for word like a terrible sales presentation over 20 minutes doesn't match up with my understanding of that word. Don't read your slides, everyone can read faster than you can talk, talk about whats on the slides.
@xxmlgjesusxxlegitnoscam650610 ай бұрын
+1@@sirgog
@TheLouisGreen10 ай бұрын
A top 10 community discoveries video would be really interesting. I guess Timeless Jewels would be top1
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I'd put div card drop rates number 1 I think.
@n1128810 ай бұрын
@@sirgog Div card rates is only an empirical confirmation of what people had in a reasonable ballpark and gives almost 0 player power. Timeless jewels on the other hand...
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
@@n11288 There were timeless jewel spreadsheets going around, especially before TFT started demanding people post the numbers of jewels that had unusually good mods. Some people knew the good ones, just not everyone.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
@@n11288 I also feel the big impact of card rates is optimization. Back when Asenath's Gentle Touch was a tier 1 unique, for instance, and its div card was expensive, many people farmed it... thinking the card was Nurse rarity. At the time, it was rarer than The Doctor. (Those rarities no longer hold true) There's a huge impact to player power from increased efficiency, which is why I still consider loot filters the biggest player power boost ever in POE's history.
@ZimzamsXD10 ай бұрын
@n11288 timeless jewels are maybe more directly player relevant, but are limited to just that mechanic. Div card drop rates, as we see in this video, help inform theories for far more than just confirming that crimson temple good.
@repsac1010 ай бұрын
I have always hated wathcing youtube videos over e.g written guides - too much faffing about. Your channel is litterally what opened my eyes to the possibility of youtube content being informative and consise enough to keep my attention and not be annoyed. You 100% deserve every single upvote and subscribtion that you get and more!
@saoulhigh285610 ай бұрын
Can't believe you only have 30k subs, you are by far the most interesting content creator imo. Thank you for the continuous release of top tier vids Sirgog! Cheers to the first milestone towards 300k
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks mate!
@eirikS166310 ай бұрын
Your comment on Heatshiver is exactly what I did this league, except there was pretty much no Leather Hood with a good corruption on it, I added Leather Hood to my lootfilter and get only 1 dropped in maybe 3-5 maps. I used Bloodstained fossils on them after watching your CotB video. Got raked by RNG and never got a PC one. You can 5-1 them as you don't care about most of the mods. Going to add a few bases like this to my lootfilter next league.
@Henbe_10 ай бұрын
T3 uniques appear to be a treasury! Quite a few good uniques on separated bases with very popular corruptions: Haemophilia, Asenath's Gentle Touch, Alpha's Howl, Heatshiver(low level base drops rarely in maps). Geting a particular corruption implicit via Vaal Orb might be a little too hard, as it is a little less than 1 in 100 orbs required and then 1 in 13 to get T3 Unique, but it definitely adds some lucky cases for drops in maps like Vaal Temple when you get quite a few of corrupted Sinners Tricorns. Edit: if we count 1300 vaal orbs + 13 mything orbs = 1300+130=1430c(6.2 divines) it might be justifieable to just enable any rarity Leather Hood on a fitler and slam a vaal orb on it because a "Socketed Skill Gems get a 90% Cost & Reservation Multiplier" implicit Heatshiver has stable price of 22-23 divines two leagues in a row. I am not sure if it is worth to farm low level zones for it though.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Yeah also with strongboxes. I expect 1x implicit Tricornes to get added to many a loot filter. As for Asenath and Heatshiver, the bases are so rare that you won't see them often, but they do exist.
@alexanderfriedrichs264510 ай бұрын
but dont you guys think that aside from the short term or league start the market will regulate itself? More of these uniques on the market (=potential lower price) or bases will then cost 1div each or prices for the mythic orb will rise (as more ppl are using it)@@sirgog
@chozhang282310 ай бұрын
I’ll also add that for those with a big budget corrupting stranglegrasps into rares and then mythic orbing them can be another good use for profit.
@CouchOwner210 ай бұрын
so basically, even if all the Mythic Orbs found in a league were thrown entirely at Heavy Belts, we'd expect to see... maybe 1 Mageblood. lol. nice video :).
@ArawnOfAnnwn10 ай бұрын
Their value doesn't lie in getting T0 uniques. It was already kinda known they sucked for that. What this finding shows is that they do have value is getting certain lower rarity uniques, especially with certain valuable additional properties. For instance, +1 power charge or 90% reservation Heatshiver, +1 frenzy charge, attack or spell crit or curse on hit Asenath's Gentle Touch or even Shaper variants of either for Eternity Shroud. And that's just two examples of uniques that they're good for.
@bannedwagon158610 ай бұрын
Super useful videos like this is why I subscribe with the nag option checked!
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks mate!
@eternallybased10 ай бұрын
awesome video sir, currently tinkering with meticulous appraiser until i drop a t0 might take weeks or could be soon but im collecting data all the same
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Krolya, who led the effort to collect the 24000-ish uniques, has a strat in mind based on that and ghosts. If you get into the Prohibited Library you can definitely discuss. Krol expects about 1000 uniques to drop per hour, for about 1 T0 per 12 hours or so.
@klankius10 ай бұрын
The logic layout of your information makes learning feel like my brain is getting a massage.
@neogramps10 ай бұрын
Congrats on 30K well deserved :D
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks!
@drt452710 ай бұрын
Congratz on the subs
@andreasbrey627710 ай бұрын
just over 30K (30.500) now! Congrats Sirgog! :))
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Thanks! 😃
@z11mbabve10 ай бұрын
So, knowing that Ivory Tower is t3, there's 1 in 14 chance to mythic orb it.. That's a good information, thank you, would help me a lot next league.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Something like that yeah, as there's no common uniques on that base. Be aware that GGG occasionally change unique tiers around - for instance, in 3.18, Berek's Respite and Asenath's Gentle Touch were both T1 (now both T3).
@JackTalksAlot10 ай бұрын
BOOM 30k already, congrats my dude, great video as always
@MathieuPilot10 ай бұрын
The amount of research for this is astounding. Hours and hours of farming and testing while a 5 minute peak at ggg's code would give the sale information 😮
@ricardorodrigues48008 ай бұрын
In 10/2022 I get crazy luck in a double corrupted leather belt I use my only one mythic orb and omg headhunter. Was my greater rng in POE in 6 years playing the game 😊
@LegendaryNightfall10 ай бұрын
And just like that, you go to 30.1k! Congrats!
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It really happens in spurts.
@willjones65510 ай бұрын
What an absolute hero! Been watching for quite some time now and I'm so glad you're getting there with your sub count! Congratulations!! I wonder whether the same logic can be applied to Gwennen too as she seems to serve a similar-ish function except for the "destroy chance" can be replaced with a "non-unique chance". Not sure if I am late to the party on this but Gwen seems to be a complete waste of time these days and these weightings would certainly explain why that is the case.
@rrratio_10 ай бұрын
Very informative as always, glad that I clicked in. Also congrats on 30k subs, cheers!
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks mate!
@Mayhamsdead10 ай бұрын
This is great and all, but I thought it would be pretty intuitive: you're not going to get unique items 50% of the time while using Mythic Orbs, and you better NOT be expecting specific uniques that 50% of the time. I know a lot of testing was put into this, but it's still more of a COPIUM strat than a real one. You're better off just farming juiced map with or without delirium layers on them.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I do know someone who made 450 divines in a week doing this with Heatshivers on premium bases. Granted that won't work now that the details are public
@kkeithf10 ай бұрын
Amazing had no idea it was a 300% multiplier if I was subscribed to someone. The Poe stuff is good too.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
That is an estimate rather than a hard number. It's noticeable that if you are subbed to someone but seldom watch their videos they really do fall off your recommendations though
@willomalley761910 ай бұрын
Love the shirt changes, keep crushing it
@Sidnv10 ай бұрын
This should be very useful for getting the expected cost of bricked blight uniques.
@azuri684210 ай бұрын
me: forgot to bench block mana on an open prefix item and exalt slammed t8 mana. these guys: precisely calculated the odds of chancing merveil's bra using the numbers pulled from some random discord guy opening 50k stacked decks. sometimes i feel like the 10k hours of me playing this game is a good numbers till someone prove me wrong and turn me into a glue eater instead...
@Waggabagaboo10 ай бұрын
The biggest info drop in this video is that gog is finally making an eternity shroud build.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
oh I expect it'll be bad
@mcyy_poe10 ай бұрын
very good video, nice and helpful insight, ty
@brattpack10 ай бұрын
PoE does a good job of giving item details and stat ranking. For non-uniques, this is enough to rate an item. Since there are SO many uniques and grow every list, it would be good for them to add the rarity tier of the unique for new players. It's not like this information is exactly secret.
@kylemenos10 ай бұрын
congrats dude
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
thanks mate!
@Limemulberry10 ай бұрын
Great video. Is heatshiver really (still) tier 3? It has seemed so rare this league (incredibly anecdotal obviously).
@farettig10 ай бұрын
I liked this slide deck/ppt style. While I do enjoy the saturated colors and fractals, it may not be as palatable to all. Whereas this new styling is quite a bit more neutral. Regardless what you stick with, thanks for all the great content!
@WolfieBeat10 ай бұрын
Great video! Does this mean omen of fortune works similarly, just without the chance of destroying the item? Also, is there a list of single-unique bases somewhere?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Omen isn't tested. I do believe it PROBABLY works similarly, but where Mythics reduce the chance to 50% if it is over that, Omens raise it to 100%, but this is an untested hypothesis. For example, I'd expect Arakaali's Fang to be about 56 times rarer than Consuming Dark from Omens. The most relevant single unique bases for Omens are probably Soul Taker, Aegis Aurora and Prism Guardian.
@WolfieBeat10 ай бұрын
@@sirgog I see, tahnks for the info
@MrExeetor10 ай бұрын
This should make it easy to guess Tiers of Uniques of some of the uncrowded items then? with a decent sample size of mythic orbs you should get a good % amount out of it. Making it easy to decide its tier
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It's shockingly hard to tell apart "1 per 80" and "1 per 160" from empirical testing. Assume you Mythic 800 of the Aegis Aurora base and get 6 Aegis - that weakly implies it's T1, but it's just not enough to statistically conclude anything. I'm confident the list of T3 items is exactly correct now. There's another not yet public experiment that I think Fishwife might sit on until 3.23 spoiler season that says a LOT more about unique tiers, and is how I know Emperor's Vigilance is T2 and Sin's Rebirth is T1, but I'll let her go public with that.
@MrExeetor10 ай бұрын
Yea ofc. But if you go with a team effort on items you can get decent stats. I mean 2500 mythic orbs is nothing if you pool a few ppl for science!
@ArawnOfAnnwn10 ай бұрын
@@sirgog Out of curiosity, is Fishwife a mathematician or statistician in her day job? She seems to be at the centre of most of PoE's various number-crunching endeavours.
@JohnDoe-wh5cr10 ай бұрын
great work and interesting results, but those are hard to use without an actual rarity tier table for all uniques in hand
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
T1 and T2 aren't separated but in the description I've got a summary of tiers that's mostly right at least.
@Gonain10 ай бұрын
For how much statistics you seem to know from previous reddit comments etc, I am stunned that you pronounce chi-square like that. It is pronounced like the greek letter, hence the greek letter used in the test statistic, not the Chinese concept of life force.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
This comes from never taking stats at uni, although an ex who did take it at uni did always pronounce it 'chi'. There's definitely a lot of regional variance in maths terms though - when I was training for the IMO we always had a rule on the Australian team & training circuit - when in a set context, never use N to describe either {0, 1, 2, 3...} or {1, 2, 3...} because IIRC most English language mathematical literature used N for one of those, and French for the other. Instead we were told to use Z+ (for the latter) or Z+ U {0} for the former.
@powhit117610 ай бұрын
2:37 damn, all t0 uniques should at least be good, what's the point of an exceedingly rare item being trash? (Bino's, Essentia Sanguis)
@genocidegrand205710 ай бұрын
thanks
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
You're welcome!
@peterbotlik310 ай бұрын
yooo i need this for stranglegasp so bad thanks to poe community
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
There's at least a couple of Replica Dragonfang's Flights in circulation with quad anoints. Not aware of any quad-anoint Astramentis, but it could happen...
@lordofchaosinc.26110 ай бұрын
I thought he was going a say, subscribing adds a 300% more multiplier to my maps. Sigh.
@Azonavox10 ай бұрын
Wait, Kitchen Knife is T0? I had no idea. I have a few of them drop already. Huh. I thought it was rare but not that uncommon.
@joeyw453110 ай бұрын
I had the same reaction and decided to look it up. It went to t0 in 3.21. It used to be t3.
@Azonavox10 ай бұрын
@@joeyw4531 Huh. Maybe I should try them out again. They are big Phys and I haven’t done full phys in a LONG time.
@zliWhoHatesCarrots10 ай бұрын
What's that background art? Looks amazing
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
At the start? That's just something Microsoft recommended that caught my eye when I was writing it
@drakenova973810 ай бұрын
Wait.. Essentia Sanguis and Binos are both t0??? I have dropped BOTH of them before.. They are in my unique tab right now.. Are you telling me those could have been a Headhunter or Mageblood?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Change to rarity was made when they were gigabuffed, I think in 3.20. Before that I think they were both T3. If you've had them more recently, yeah, it's a really really really rare event for them to drop.
@EnjoylThelSilence10 ай бұрын
does mythic orbs count as chance orbs? like, if unique "cant be chanced" with normal chance orbs, can it still be converted into unique with mythic orbs, regardless of "cant be chanced"?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Correct, mythics can only hit items a chance orb could hit.
@NoName-mi8js10 ай бұрын
Ah, when children asks "when am I ever going to use this" in math class. This is the answer.
@toshobagera10 ай бұрын
why did i pay the most attention to the statistics part when i have literally no statistics background???????? xdddd
@icecreamemperor10 ай бұрын
Your videos are great, but please do not put text on top of an image that also has text in it (the Mythic Orb Formula slide, ~11:20ish. This is terrible for readability.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Fair. I did them in the reverse order (text first then image) and I always forget what looks fine on my PC may render badly once the size changes a couple times in encoding
@ethanlarge357210 ай бұрын
Unimportant note: the Greek letter chi is pronounced like "kai," rather than like "chai."
@Logined859 ай бұрын
I'm currently playing SSF. With over 500hrs not a single Saffell's drop from both league mechanics and normal maps and other engame content. I'm attempting to myth orb it from corrupted rare. So far with the same luck. I wonder if there a relaiable way to farm them orbs.
@sirgog9 ай бұрын
Saffell's is almost certainly T3, mythic should get it in reasonable time.
@virolancer110 ай бұрын
30k POG
@Lukas-pk3vh10 ай бұрын
Wait, Bino's the same tier of rarity of HH and MB? Damn, I had quite a few droping yet no belts
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Yeah has been since 320 when it got the enormous buff
@valen856010 ай бұрын
is it the same as orb of chance + omen? if we get the same distribution (after destroying and levels requirement), we can fairly say this is a close approx.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I'm not willing to consider Omens of Fortune sufficiently tested. I speculate that they work like Mythic Orbs, except scaling UP the chance to 100% rather than scaling it down to a cap of 50%, but that's speculative.
@GameKaps10 ай бұрын
Are we sure that hh and mageblood are actually more rare than other t0's from a natural drop perspective? So much of the info i have tried to gather this league to find this out lead towards them all being the same (which was hard to believe). There is a lot of info in this video so it was hard to pin point if there was a proof via something statistically but it could be there, im just half asleep.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It's pretty certain from div cards (Soul Taker, Bino's) that all the T0s are equally rare as direct monster drops - but there's strong evidence (see, Agnerod staves) that mythics hard cap at 50% no matter what, which hurts HH and Mageblood specfically. This is really noticeable on T3s - for instance, Dyadian Dawn was 9 from 288, where other T3s are ~3 times as common. If next league GGG added three tier 5 rarity unique Siege Axes, Soul Taker would also become harder to get with Mythics.
@lilypadsy10 ай бұрын
theyre all the same weight across the same tier
@Machinex1110 ай бұрын
Could someone explain what is meant when talking about a T0 unique /card has a drop rate of 1.5 - how do you interpret this?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It can be looked at relatively (i.e. 1.5 is 1/200 of 300, so you get 200 Heatshivers for every 1 Headhunter). But it also appears that this is the first drop table the game uses: poedb.tw/us/GameConstants#DropPool and valid div cards are added to that table. So "The Patient" is added as about 768 (1.5 times set size of 512), meaning you should get that card a little less often than once per 10 stacks of Rogue Markers (8000), from drops where both are valid, such as a monster in the Armory map tileset.
@Machinex1110 ай бұрын
@@sirgog thanks for the explanation good sir. Crazy how smart you guys are for figuring stuff like this out. Here I am trying to decide what a fun farming strat would be. Kekw
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
@@Machinex11 At the moment it's really as simple as "take everything on the Atlas that directly amps up my personal favorite mechanic, then fill out with other things that fit in well with it"
@Machinex1110 ай бұрын
@@sirgog yeah that seems to be the just of it. The sad part - I may be wrong but that some mechanics are inherently just more profitable /rewarding than others.
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
@@Machinex11 This is true, but if you have more fun with Blight than Heist - it's better to run 3 hours of Blight than 2 of Heist if you come out of it with the same loot.
@Sl4yerkid10 ай бұрын
aww dang it, people are finally catching on to what I thought was common sense.
@koilerREC10 ай бұрын
i was thinking about Lightning Coil, is that T3 or T2? buying 6l bases, vaal them for gem levels and mythic orb them
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
T3. I think the best option for Coil is to just trade into Coils, 6S5L them, then double corrupt (or just vaal), then if you hit HARD on the corrupts, Tainted Fuse.
@Digital_Renaissance8110 ай бұрын
time to farm 24/7 Vaal Temple T16 - 10c ea
@boercarlyle10 ай бұрын
Right, gonna need someone to make a Tainted Mythic Orbussy website that works these all out for whatever base you're sending the orb on. Ty POE community
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It's quite doable yourself in the interim.
@Joulespersecond10 ай бұрын
Can you clarify why you can't get an influenced Widowhail using the omen?
@dtieubinh672610 ай бұрын
because you gonna get Silverbranch instead
@user-em9nu3qe2l10 ай бұрын
I wonder if the ilvl somehow taken to the account when use the mythic orb
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
No bias has been detected along those lines.
@user-em9nu3qe2l10 ай бұрын
@@sirgog I see, i guess the samples were taken from the 80+ilvl base, so there is no bias. But in case of Gwennen back in Expedition league, one can specifily roll for one unique item (for example tabula rasa). So may be there is a way to reduced "crowendess" of a base for better chance of desired result of the mythic orb.
@SaaWljaAAA10 ай бұрын
Last 30 mythic orbs I've used have destroyed every viridian jewel... Can't see how it is 50/50 after the nerf to destroy the item
@TheEternalVortex4210 ай бұрын
Did you even watch the video?
@Sambenmaggie10 ай бұрын
@@TheEternalVortex42 Clearly he did not lol
@shnurr21410 ай бұрын
Was anyone else surprised as me that Binos is a t0 rarity item??
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
It got gigabuffed in 3.20, at the same time it was made rare.
@caseyrybak10 ай бұрын
How often would you drop Mythic orb with beyond atlas tree + map device mod - SSF?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I haven't run a Beyond atlas so can't answer that authoritatively. They are uncommon rather than rare though (the rare ones are tainted divines, exalts, and surprisingly, tainted chaos)
@tttt-dx2nu10 ай бұрын
i have no clue what you said. i didn't see a way to get profit here
@tylerhou10 ай бұрын
By the way, the χ in chi squared test is pronounced like “kai” (“kai squared test”).
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Heh, I've only ever heard it pronounced chi, might be regional. I didn't do any formal study of stats, was pure maths myself, but an ex was in scientific research and she did quite a bit of stats and pronounced it chi.
@CTL10 ай бұрын
@@sirgog In America I've always heard it as "kai" but my current supervisor is Greek and he says "hee" which was very different from anything else I've heard but he's actually Greek so...
@tamasfreiberger118410 ай бұрын
There is no way to get a shaper influenced Original Sin right?
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Correct. Doesn't really have much mechanical appeal in any case, it would just be cosmetic.
@AintNoJustice10 ай бұрын
heh love the more multiplier on youtube comment
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
yeah it's the best way to explain it IMO :)
@harrisonchan496910 ай бұрын
Essentia sanguis is T0??? i swear i have gotten a few of these
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
Since 3.20 yeah. Was common before (but way worse)
@Kchristians10 ай бұрын
TIL Binos is T0.
@controlledsingularity808410 ай бұрын
Bro binos in t0 is cap i had like 4 of those dont joke with me like this, never saw a HH or Mageblood etc.
@daath91210 ай бұрын
Some uniques seem to be in the wrong tier, I will check my tabs when I vone back home, but I think I have 2 of these garbagr lightning claws
@ArawnOfAnnwn10 ай бұрын
@@daath912 They're not wrong, they were just changed recently. Bino's and Essentia Sangius (the 'garbage' lightning claws) were moved to t0 recently. They used to be much lower tier rarity before.
@daath91210 ай бұрын
@@ArawnOfAnnwn what I meant is this league, not overall... :D
I should add: Angler's Plait is suspected to be T0 but with an additional drop condition: it can only drop from a monster that is fleeing and only if the player credited with the kill is wearing a corrupted Slitherpinch. If those conditions are not met, it's unclear if a different T0 drops instead, or if nothing drops. Much less is known about this meme item.
@anuthutantrum10 ай бұрын
how oftren is the tier list updated, as ggg changes the tiers of a certain amount of uniques every league@@sirgog, especially older uniques that synergise with a new passive node, skill gem or unique item
@bryansamchek142810 ай бұрын
@@sirgog How on earth did anyone get the chance to test this to even have the slightest idea around which to form a hypothesis? Absolute madness Edit: talking about Angler's Plait
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
@@bryansamchek1428 Via PMing everyone who listed one in trade. Then stalking the characters who looted it. Slitherpinch stood out quickly. Flee was harder to spot.
@livejamie10 ай бұрын
I'm close to 80 Viridian jewels this league and they've all poofed
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
F. On average you'd have hit 2 - 0.4 of each of the 5.
@MichaelSmith-bh6xd10 ай бұрын
How many shirt/jacket changes did i witness 3 atleast fashionista 😆😆 but no very informative video
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I edited in a jacket because it got colder, & had to rerecord a couple sections to cut waffling.
@G33KST4R10 ай бұрын
Last time a discovery this big was made exalt and divines got swapped. Im interested to see what happens to uniques in 3.23 😂
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
I don't think it's as big as the Timeless Jewel stuff or the div card drop rate stuff last year. TBH I feel the divine/exalt swap was in the works from the design of 3.17 uniques.
@hellboy1999110 ай бұрын
Never tell me the odds
@sirgog10 ай бұрын
"It's always 50-50 - I get it or I don't"
@ioannisn.tsiroyiannis602210 ай бұрын
@@sirgog it's a well documented fact that most gamblers quit right before they hit big.