POE 3.22 - 2023's Biggest Player Discovery So Far - How Tainted Mythic Orbs Work - Path Of Exile

[@freely124]

glad to see this channel reach 30k, you earned it brother. always concise and informative, appreciate that.

[@sirgog]

thanks mate!

[@TheTriforce100]

Same love the videos@@sirgog. Your accent is so funny. Sounds like "Headhantah"

[@cetusipy]

Informative, for sure. Concise? We must be using different dictionaries, because a guy reading every bullet point word for word like a terrible sales presentation over 20 minutes doesn't match up with my understanding of that word. Don't read your slides, everyone can read faster than you can talk, talk about whats on the slides.

[@xxmlgjesusxxlegitnoscam6506]

+1@@sirgog

[@TheLouisGreen]

A top 10 community discoveries video would be really interesting. I guess Timeless Jewels would be top1

[@sirgog]

I'd put div card drop rates number 1 I think.

[@n11288]

@@sirgog Div card rates is only an empirical confirmation of what people had in a reasonable ballpark and gives almost 0 player power. Timeless jewels on the other hand...

[@sirgog]

@@n11288 There were timeless jewel spreadsheets going around, especially before TFT started demanding people post the numbers of jewels that had unusually good mods. Some people knew the good ones, just not everyone.

[@sirgog]

@@n11288 I also feel the big impact of card rates is optimization. Back when Asenath's Gentle Touch was a tier 1 unique, for instance, and its div card was expensive, many people farmed it... thinking the card was Nurse rarity. At the time, it was rarer than The Doctor. (Those rarities no longer hold true) There's a huge impact to player power from increased efficiency, which is why I still consider loot filters the biggest player power boost ever in POE's history.

[@ZimzamsXD]

@n11288 timeless jewels are maybe more directly player relevant, but are limited to just that mechanic. Div card drop rates, as we see in this video, help inform theories for far more than just confirming that crimson temple good.

[@repsac10]

I have always hated wathcing youtube videos over e.g written guides - too much faffing about. Your channel is litterally what opened my eyes to the possibility of youtube content being informative and consise enough to keep my attention and not be annoyed. You 100% deserve every single upvote and subscribtion that you get and more!

[@saoulhigh2856]

Can't believe you only have 30k subs, you are by far the most interesting content creator imo. Thank you for the continuous release of top tier vids Sirgog! Cheers to the first milestone towards 300k

[@sirgog]

thanks mate!

[@eirikS1663]

Your comment on Heatshiver is exactly what I did this league, except there was pretty much no Leather Hood with a good corruption on it, I added Leather Hood to my lootfilter and get only 1 dropped in maybe 3-5 maps. I used Bloodstained fossils on them after watching your CotB video. Got raked by RNG and never got a PC one. You can 5-1 them as you don't care about most of the mods. Going to add a few bases like this to my lootfilter next league.

[@Henbe_]

T3 uniques appear to be a treasury! Quite a few good uniques on separated bases with very popular corruptions: Haemophilia, Asenath's Gentle Touch, Alpha's Howl, Heatshiver(low level base drops rarely in maps). Geting a particular corruption implicit via Vaal Orb might be a little too hard, as it is a little less than 1 in 100 orbs required and then 1 in 13 to get T3 Unique, but it definitely adds some lucky cases for drops in maps like Vaal Temple when you get quite a few of corrupted Sinners Tricorns. Edit: if we count 1300 vaal orbs + 13 mything orbs = 1300+130=1430c(6.2 divines) it might be justifieable to just enable any rarity Leather Hood on a fitler and slam a vaal orb on it because a "Socketed Skill Gems get a 90% Cost & Reservation Multiplier" implicit Heatshiver has stable price of 22-23 divines two leagues in a row. I am not sure if it is worth to farm low level zones for it though.

[@sirgog]

Yeah also with strongboxes. I expect 1x implicit Tricornes to get added to many a loot filter. As for Asenath and Heatshiver, the bases are so rare that you won't see them often, but they do exist.

[@alexanderfriedrichs2645]

but dont you guys think that aside from the short term or league start the market will regulate itself? More of these uniques on the market (=potential lower price) or bases will then cost 1div each or prices for the mythic orb will rise (as more ppl are using it)@@sirgog

[@chozhang2823]

I’ll also add that for those with a big budget corrupting stranglegrasps into rares and then mythic orbing them can be another good use for profit.

[@CouchOwner2]

so basically, even if all the Mythic Orbs found in a league were thrown entirely at Heavy Belts, we'd expect to see... maybe 1 Mageblood. lol. nice video :).

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Their value doesn't lie in getting T0 uniques. It was already kinda known they sucked for that. What this finding shows is that they do have value is getting certain lower rarity uniques, especially with certain valuable additional properties. For instance, +1 power charge or 90% reservation Heatshiver, +1 frenzy charge, attack or spell crit or curse on hit Asenath's Gentle Touch or even Shaper variants of either for Eternity Shroud. And that's just two examples of uniques that they're good for.

[@bannedwagon1586]

Super useful videos like this is why I subscribe with the nag option checked!

[@sirgog]

thanks mate!

[@eternallybased]

awesome video sir, currently tinkering with meticulous appraiser until i drop a t0 might take weeks or could be soon but im collecting data all the same

[@sirgog]

Krolya, who led the effort to collect the 24000-ish uniques, has a strat in mind based on that and ghosts. If you get into the Prohibited Library you can definitely discuss. Krol expects about 1000 uniques to drop per hour, for about 1 T0 per 12 hours or so.

[@klankius]

The logic layout of your information makes learning feel like my brain is getting a massage.

[@neogramps]

Congrats on 30K well deserved :D

[@sirgog]

thanks!

[@drt4527]

Congratz on the subs

[@andreasbrey6277]

just over 30K (30.500) now! Congrats Sirgog! :))

[@sirgog]

Thanks! 😃

[@z11mbabve]

So, knowing that Ivory Tower is t3, there's 1 in 14 chance to mythic orb it.. That's a good information, thank you, would help me a lot next league.

[@sirgog]

Something like that yeah, as there's no common uniques on that base. Be aware that GGG occasionally change unique tiers around - for instance, in 3.18, Berek's Respite and Asenath's Gentle Touch were both T1 (now both T3).

[@JackTalksAlot]

BOOM 30k already, congrats my dude, great video as always

[@MathieuPilot]

The amount of research for this is astounding. Hours and hours of farming and testing while a 5 minute peak at ggg's code would give the sale information 😮

[@ricardorodrigues4800]

In 10/2022 I get crazy luck in a double corrupted leather belt I use my only one mythic orb and omg headhunter. Was my greater rng in POE in 6 years playing the game 😊

[@LegendaryNightfall]

And just like that, you go to 30.1k! Congrats!

[@sirgog]

It really happens in spurts.

[@willjones655]

What an absolute hero! Been watching for quite some time now and I'm so glad you're getting there with your sub count! Congratulations!! I wonder whether the same logic can be applied to Gwennen too as she seems to serve a similar-ish function except for the "destroy chance" can be replaced with a "non-unique chance". Not sure if I am late to the party on this but Gwen seems to be a complete waste of time these days and these weightings would certainly explain why that is the case.

[@rrratio_]

Very informative as always, glad that I clicked in. Also congrats on 30k subs, cheers!

[@sirgog]

thanks mate!

[@Mayhamsdead]

This is great and all, but I thought it would be pretty intuitive: you're not going to get unique items 50% of the time while using Mythic Orbs, and you better NOT be expecting specific uniques that 50% of the time. I know a lot of testing was put into this, but it's still more of a COPIUM strat than a real one. You're better off just farming juiced map with or without delirium layers on them.

[@sirgog]

I do know someone who made 450 divines in a week doing this with Heatshivers on premium bases. Granted that won't work now that the details are public

[@kkeithf]

Amazing had no idea it was a 300% multiplier if I was subscribed to someone. The Poe stuff is good too.

[@sirgog]

That is an estimate rather than a hard number. It's noticeable that if you are subbed to someone but seldom watch their videos they really do fall off your recommendations though

[@willomalley7619]

Love the shirt changes, keep crushing it

[@Sidnv]

This should be very useful for getting the expected cost of bricked blight uniques.

[@azuri6842]

me: forgot to bench block mana on an open prefix item and exalt slammed t8 mana. these guys: precisely calculated the odds of chancing merveil's bra using the numbers pulled from some random discord guy opening 50k stacked decks. sometimes i feel like the 10k hours of me playing this game is a good numbers till someone prove me wrong and turn me into a glue eater instead...

[@Waggabagaboo]

The biggest info drop in this video is that gog is finally making an eternity shroud build.

[@sirgog]

oh I expect it'll be bad

[@mcyy_poe]

very good video, nice and helpful insight, ty

[@brattpack]

PoE does a good job of giving item details and stat ranking. For non-uniques, this is enough to rate an item. Since there are SO many uniques and grow every list, it would be good for them to add the rarity tier of the unique for new players. It's not like this information is exactly secret.

[@kylemenos]

congrats dude

[@sirgog]

thanks mate!

[@Limemulberry]

Great video. Is heatshiver really (still) tier 3? It has seemed so rare this league (incredibly anecdotal obviously).

[@farettig]

I liked this slide deck/ppt style. While I do enjoy the saturated colors and fractals, it may not be as palatable to all. Whereas this new styling is quite a bit more neutral. Regardless what you stick with, thanks for all the great content!

[@WolfieBeat]

Great video! Does this mean omen of fortune works similarly, just without the chance of destroying the item? Also, is there a list of single-unique bases somewhere?

[@sirgog]

Omen isn't tested. I do believe it PROBABLY works similarly, but where Mythics reduce the chance to 50% if it is over that, Omens raise it to 100%, but this is an untested hypothesis. For example, I'd expect Arakaali's Fang to be about 56 times rarer than Consuming Dark from Omens. The most relevant single unique bases for Omens are probably Soul Taker, Aegis Aurora and Prism Guardian.

[@WolfieBeat]

@@sirgog I see, tahnks for the info

[@MrExeetor]

This should make it easy to guess Tiers of Uniques of some of the uncrowded items then? with a decent sample size of mythic orbs you should get a good % amount out of it. Making it easy to decide its tier

[@sirgog]

It's shockingly hard to tell apart "1 per 80" and "1 per 160" from empirical testing. Assume you Mythic 800 of the Aegis Aurora base and get 6 Aegis - that weakly implies it's T1, but it's just not enough to statistically conclude anything. I'm confident the list of T3 items is exactly correct now. There's another not yet public experiment that I think Fishwife might sit on until 3.23 spoiler season that says a LOT more about unique tiers, and is how I know Emperor's Vigilance is T2 and Sin's Rebirth is T1, but I'll let her go public with that.

[@MrExeetor]

Yea ofc. But if you go with a team effort on items you can get decent stats. I mean 2500 mythic orbs is nothing if you pool a few ppl for science!

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@sirgog Out of curiosity, is Fishwife a mathematician or statistician in her day job? She seems to be at the centre of most of PoE's various number-crunching endeavours.

[@JohnDoe-wh5cr]

great work and interesting results, but those are hard to use without an actual rarity tier table for all uniques in hand

[@sirgog]

T1 and T2 aren't separated but in the description I've got a summary of tiers that's mostly right at least.

[@Gonain]

For how much statistics you seem to know from previous reddit comments etc, I am stunned that you pronounce chi-square like that. It is pronounced like the greek letter, hence the greek letter used in the test statistic, not the Chinese concept of life force.

[@sirgog]

This comes from never taking stats at uni, although an ex who did take it at uni did always pronounce it 'chi'. There's definitely a lot of regional variance in maths terms though - when I was training for the IMO we always had a rule on the Australian team & training circuit - when in a set context, never use N to describe either {0, 1, 2, 3...} or {1, 2, 3...} because IIRC most English language mathematical literature used N for one of those, and French for the other. Instead we were told to use Z+ (for the latter) or Z+ U {0} for the former.

[@powhit1176]

2:37 damn, all t0 uniques should at least be good, what's the point of an exceedingly rare item being trash? (Bino's, Essentia Sanguis)

[@genocidegrand2057]

thanks

[@sirgog]

You're welcome!

[@peterbotlik3]

yooo i need this for stranglegasp so bad thanks to poe community

[@sirgog]

There's at least a couple of Replica Dragonfang's Flights in circulation with quad anoints. Not aware of any quad-anoint Astramentis, but it could happen...

[@lordofchaosinc.261]

I thought he was going a say, subscribing adds a 300% more multiplier to my maps. Sigh.

[@Azonavox]

Wait, Kitchen Knife is T0? I had no idea. I have a few of them drop already. Huh. I thought it was rare but not that uncommon.

[@joeyw4531]

I had the same reaction and decided to look it up. It went to t0 in 3.21. It used to be t3.

[@Azonavox]

@@joeyw4531 Huh. Maybe I should try them out again. They are big Phys and I haven’t done full phys in a LONG time.

[@zliWhoHatesCarrots]

What's that background art? Looks amazing

[@sirgog]

At the start? That's just something Microsoft recommended that caught my eye when I was writing it

[@drakenova9738]

Wait.. Essentia Sanguis and Binos are both t0??? I have dropped BOTH of them before.. They are in my unique tab right now.. Are you telling me those could have been a Headhunter or Mageblood?

[@sirgog]

Change to rarity was made when they were gigabuffed, I think in 3.20. Before that I think they were both T3. If you've had them more recently, yeah, it's a really really really rare event for them to drop.

[@EnjoylThelSilence]

does mythic orbs count as chance orbs? like, if unique "cant be chanced" with normal chance orbs, can it still be converted into unique with mythic orbs, regardless of "cant be chanced"?

[@sirgog]

Correct, mythics can only hit items a chance orb could hit.

[@NoName-mi8js]

Ah, when children asks "when am I ever going to use this" in math class. This is the answer.

[@toshobagera]

why did i pay the most attention to the statistics part when i have literally no statistics background???????? xdddd

[@icecreamemperor]

Your videos are great, but please do not put text on top of an image that also has text in it (the Mythic Orb Formula slide, ~11:20ish. This is terrible for readability.

[@sirgog]

Fair. I did them in the reverse order (text first then image) and I always forget what looks fine on my PC may render badly once the size changes a couple times in encoding

[@ethanlarge3572]

Unimportant note: the Greek letter chi is pronounced like "kai," rather than like "chai."

[@Logined85]

I'm currently playing SSF. With over 500hrs not a single Saffell's drop from both league mechanics and normal maps and other engame content. I'm attempting to myth orb it from corrupted rare. So far with the same luck. I wonder if there a relaiable way to farm them orbs.

[@sirgog]

Saffell's is almost certainly T3, mythic should get it in reasonable time.

[@virolancer1]

30k POG

[@Lukas-pk3vh]

Wait, Bino's the same tier of rarity of HH and MB? Damn, I had quite a few droping yet no belts

[@sirgog]

Yeah has been since 320 when it got the enormous buff

[@valen8560]

is it the same as orb of chance + omen? if we get the same distribution (after destroying and levels requirement), we can fairly say this is a close approx.

[@sirgog]

I'm not willing to consider Omens of Fortune sufficiently tested. I speculate that they work like Mythic Orbs, except scaling UP the chance to 100% rather than scaling it down to a cap of 50%, but that's speculative.

[@GameKaps]

Are we sure that hh and mageblood are actually more rare than other t0's from a natural drop perspective? So much of the info i have tried to gather this league to find this out lead towards them all being the same (which was hard to believe). There is a lot of info in this video so it was hard to pin point if there was a proof via something statistically but it could be there, im just half asleep.

[@sirgog]

It's pretty certain from div cards (Soul Taker, Bino's) that all the T0s are equally rare as direct monster drops - but there's strong evidence (see, Agnerod staves) that mythics hard cap at 50% no matter what, which hurts HH and Mageblood specfically. This is really noticeable on T3s - for instance, Dyadian Dawn was 9 from 288, where other T3s are ~3 times as common. If next league GGG added three tier 5 rarity unique Siege Axes, Soul Taker would also become harder to get with Mythics.

[@lilypadsy]

theyre all the same weight across the same tier

[@Machinex11]

Could someone explain what is meant when talking about a T0 unique /card has a drop rate of 1.5 - how do you interpret this?

[@sirgog]

It can be looked at relatively (i.e. 1.5 is 1/200 of 300, so you get 200 Heatshivers for every 1 Headhunter). But it also appears that this is the first drop table the game uses: poedb.tw/us/GameConstants#DropPool and valid div cards are added to that table. So "The Patient" is added as about 768 (1.5 times set size of 512), meaning you should get that card a little less often than once per 10 stacks of Rogue Markers (8000), from drops where both are valid, such as a monster in the Armory map tileset.

[@Machinex11]

@@sirgog thanks for the explanation good sir. Crazy how smart you guys are for figuring stuff like this out. Here I am trying to decide what a fun farming strat would be. Kekw

[@sirgog]

@@Machinex11 At the moment it's really as simple as "take everything on the Atlas that directly amps up my personal favorite mechanic, then fill out with other things that fit in well with it"

[@Machinex11]

@@sirgog yeah that seems to be the just of it. The sad part - I may be wrong but that some mechanics are inherently just more profitable /rewarding than others.

[@sirgog]

@@Machinex11 This is true, but if you have more fun with Blight than Heist - it's better to run 3 hours of Blight than 2 of Heist if you come out of it with the same loot.

[@Sl4yerkid]

aww dang it, people are finally catching on to what I thought was common sense.

[@koilerREC]

i was thinking about Lightning Coil, is that T3 or T2? buying 6l bases, vaal them for gem levels and mythic orb them

[@sirgog]

T3. I think the best option for Coil is to just trade into Coils, 6S5L them, then double corrupt (or just vaal), then if you hit HARD on the corrupts, Tainted Fuse.

[@Digital_Renaissance81]

time to farm 24/7 Vaal Temple T16 - 10c ea

[@boercarlyle]

Right, gonna need someone to make a Tainted Mythic Orbussy website that works these all out for whatever base you're sending the orb on. Ty POE community

[@sirgog]

It's quite doable yourself in the interim.

[@Joulespersecond]

Can you clarify why you can't get an influenced Widowhail using the omen?

[@dtieubinh6726]

because you gonna get Silverbranch instead

[@user-em9nu3qe2l]

I wonder if the ilvl somehow taken to the account when use the mythic orb

[@sirgog]

No bias has been detected along those lines.

[@user-em9nu3qe2l]

@@sirgog I see, i guess the samples were taken from the 80+ilvl base, so there is no bias. But in case of Gwennen back in Expedition league, one can specifily roll for one unique item (for example tabula rasa). So may be there is a way to reduced "crowendess" of a base for better chance of desired result of the mythic orb.

[@SaaWljaAAA]

Last 30 mythic orbs I've used have destroyed every viridian jewel... Can't see how it is 50/50 after the nerf to destroy the item

[@TheEternalVortex42]

Did you even watch the video?

[@Sambenmaggie]

@@TheEternalVortex42 Clearly he did not lol

[@shnurr214]

Was anyone else surprised as me that Binos is a t0 rarity item??

[@sirgog]

It got gigabuffed in 3.20, at the same time it was made rare.

[@caseyrybak]

How often would you drop Mythic orb with beyond atlas tree + map device mod - SSF?

[@sirgog]

I haven't run a Beyond atlas so can't answer that authoritatively. They are uncommon rather than rare though (the rare ones are tainted divines, exalts, and surprisingly, tainted chaos)

[@tttt-dx2nu]

i have no clue what you said. i didn't see a way to get profit here

[@tylerhou]

By the way, the χ in chi squared test is pronounced like “kai” (“kai squared test”).

[@sirgog]

Heh, I've only ever heard it pronounced chi, might be regional. I didn't do any formal study of stats, was pure maths myself, but an ex was in scientific research and she did quite a bit of stats and pronounced it chi.

[@CTL]

@@sirgog In America I've always heard it as "kai" but my current supervisor is Greek and he says "hee" which was very different from anything else I've heard but he's actually Greek so...

[@tamasfreiberger1184]

There is no way to get a shaper influenced Original Sin right?

[@sirgog]

Correct. Doesn't really have much mechanical appeal in any case, it would just be cosmetic.

[@AintNoJustice]

heh love the more multiplier on youtube comment

[@sirgog]

yeah it's the best way to explain it IMO :)

[@harrisonchan4969]

Essentia sanguis is T0??? i swear i have gotten a few of these

[@sirgog]

Since 3.20 yeah. Was common before (but way worse)

[@Kchristians]

TIL Binos is T0.

[@controlledsingularity8084]

Bro binos in t0 is cap i had like 4 of those dont joke with me like this, never saw a HH or Mageblood etc.

[@daath912]

Some uniques seem to be in the wrong tier, I will check my tabs when I vone back home, but I think I have 2 of these garbagr lightning claws

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@daath912 They're not wrong, they were just changed recently. Bino's and Essentia Sangius (the 'garbage' lightning claws) were moved to t0 recently. They used to be much lower tier rarity before.

[@daath912]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn what I meant is this league, not overall... :D

[@dirtyizzy8566]

where can I find a list of all T0 ?

[@sirgog]

Soul Taker, Marohi Erqi, Bino's Kitchen Knife, Divinarius, Bloodseeker, Essentia Sanguis, Lioneye's Glare, Voltaxic Rift, The Squire, Headhunter, Mageblood, Kalandra's Touch, Reefbane. (Yes, there's a T0 fishing rod)

[@sirgog]

I should add: Angler's Plait is suspected to be T0 but with an additional drop condition: it can only drop from a monster that is fleeing and only if the player credited with the kill is wearing a corrupted Slitherpinch. If those conditions are not met, it's unclear if a different T0 drops instead, or if nothing drops. Much less is known about this meme item.

[@anuthutantrum]

how oftren is the tier list updated, as ggg changes the tiers of a certain amount of uniques every league@@sirgog, especially older uniques that synergise with a new passive node, skill gem or unique item

[@bryansamchek1428]

​@@sirgog How on earth did anyone get the chance to test this to even have the slightest idea around which to form a hypothesis? Absolute madness Edit: talking about Angler's Plait

[@sirgog]

@@bryansamchek1428 Via PMing everyone who listed one in trade. Then stalking the characters who looted it. Slitherpinch stood out quickly. Flee was harder to spot.

[@livejamie]

I'm close to 80 Viridian jewels this league and they've all poofed

[@sirgog]

F. On average you'd have hit 2 - 0.4 of each of the 5.

[@MichaelSmith-bh6xd]

How many shirt/jacket changes did i witness 3 atleast fashionista 😆😆 but no very informative video

[@sirgog]

I edited in a jacket because it got colder, & had to rerecord a couple sections to cut waffling.

[@G33KST4R]

Last time a discovery this big was made exalt and divines got swapped. Im interested to see what happens to uniques in 3.23 😂

[@sirgog]

I don't think it's as big as the Timeless Jewel stuff or the div card drop rate stuff last year. TBH I feel the divine/exalt swap was in the works from the design of 3.17 uniques.

[@hellboy19991]

Never tell me the odds

[@sirgog]

"It's always 50-50 - I get it or I don't"

[@ioannisn.tsiroyiannis6022]

@@sirgog it's a well documented fact that most gamblers quit right before they hit big.

[@Joel-kc5jk]

TYVM