Sleepwalk to War - Quarterly Essay Review with Hugh White

In this gripping essay, Australia’s leading strategic thinker, Hugh White explores Australia’s fateful choice to back America to the hilt and oppose China. What led both sides of politics to align with America so absolutely? Is this a case of sleepwalking to war? What tests might a new government face? White assesses America’s credibility and commitment, by examining AUKUS, the Quad, Trump and Biden. He discusses what the Ukraine conflict tells us about the future. And he argues that the US can neither contain China, nor win a war over Taiwan. So where does this leave our future security and prosperity in Asia? Is there a better way to navigate the disruption caused by China’s rise?
“Canberra’s rhetoric helps raise the risk of the worst outcome for Australia: a war between China and America, in which we are likely to be involved. Over the past decade, and without any serious discussion, Australian governments have come to believe that America should go to war with China if necessary to preserve US primacy in Asia, and that Australia should, as a matter of course, go to war with it.” -Hugh White, Sleepwalk to War
Quarterly Essay 86, Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America was released 27 June 2022. To obtain a copy visit www.quarterlyessay.com.au/ess...
HUGH WHITE is the author of The China Choice and How To Defend Australia, and two acclaimed Quarterly Essays, Power Shift and Without America. He is emeritus professor of strategic studies at ANU, former Deputy Defence Secretary for Strategy, and was principal author of Australia’s Defence White Paper 2000.
#hughwhite #sleepwalktowar #quarterlyessay #nationalsecurity #indopacific #uschinarelations #mysecuritytv

[@magnaviator]

A fantastic thinker and international relations theorist.

[@derekshaw8050]

How did you get to that conclusion? Oh wait I see now you are subscribed to CNA and your name is Zhao?

[@songlining]

A very rare and sober voice among Australians.

[@derekshaw8050]

@@songlining Welcome to Australia, remember that you can always return to china. I'm not sure you'll find sober voices but it's up to you.

[@MaryAnneBrifman56]

I fully agree.

[@Thinkofwhat]

A must read for all Australian MPs I reckon instead of all those rubbish from aspi:)

[@yeohpg2856]

Don't be an American dog

[@johnlee-yo8jc]

Big fan of Hugh White.

[@MaryAnneBrifman56]

I have a lot of time and respect for the very practical and sound thinking Hugh White.

[@catherinepohlman6957]

Re-engaging with SE Asia: we could start by reviving Indonesian language teaching in Australian high schools and universities. It's suffered a catastrophic decline since the late 1990s and these days is almost extinct.

[@garrycoleman8537]

Why can't Manderin be taught in the Australian schools as the Chinese are oour biggest trading partner, also Manderin is largely spoken with 30% of the world population!!!!

[@richardchak696]

A very candid review on Australian position.

[@thebritishbushman8389]

At around 4:55 when Hugh makes the comment about China now being too strong, my challenge back as a host would have been: “so isn’t that a lesson we should learn from therefore acknowledge the real issue?”

[@kingsley3208]

That’s a very leading question. What do you mean by this?

[@alfred-vz8ti]

they ain't sleep-walking, they are wide-awake lining us up for casual destruction when the elephants dance.

[@magnaviator]

US and Australia agreed to a one-china accord where Taiwan is a part of sovereign China as a prerequisite to opening relations with the PRC. This is an internal civil war. Promises were made, including the withdrawal of US troops and nuclear missiles from Taiwan.

[@Madharry6672]

Interesting point of view Hugh, so what are the consequences for us...and how do we engage with China if we get out of the US alliance.

[@derekshaw8050]

Hugh White is like the John Pilger of international relations theory in that no matter the book you always know what his conclusion will be (that the US alliance is wrongheaded). In this essay, Hugh gets there by a two page analysis of the rise of china and a series of wildly pessimistic conclusions about the probable US response. I liked the essay and recommended you read it providing you do so critically and with an understanding that non partisan analyst-types think his view is pure hokum. You would be infinitely better informed by just reading Kevin Rudd's avoidable war.

[@godzillamothra5983]

John Pilger is a pacifist, Hugh White is a realist. There are a lot of different between them. Pacifists will reject wars whatever the reasons and odds are. Realists will only reject wars if the wars are futile or the odds against them. Australian hawks can't even refute him, so they can only try to assassinate his character.

[@derekshaw8050]

@@godzillamothra5983 I was implying that he was an unthinking lefty that simps to china and hates the US, not that he was a pacifist. I'm being provocative of course but I really find it interesting that there's a Keating era gaggle of leftist strategists out that for which the solution to every foreign policy problem is to decouple from the US and appease china. Edit: And to be clear I have no problem with that conclusion, it's more the reasoning and weight of evidence that gets them there.

[@benjaminmitchell5345]

Very sobering and measured discussion thankyou guys...makes me realise what a knucklehead Peter Dutton is to suggest Australia would follow the US into a war over Taiwan

[@theinfralink6598]

I can understand the host’s frustrations that Americans couldn’t do more to stop China particularly the South China Sea artificial islands and unification with Taiwan. Hugh is right that if construction of the islands happened in 1990s US would send its 7th fleet to take care of it. But China is not stupid. That’s why it happened after 2013 when China already developed DF-21d which can sink carriers. The world believes in raw power particularly the Anglo-Saxons.

[@robertphillips874]

Australia has a great opportunity, along with working closely with India. Japan and Korea, to be as friendly as possible with China, but retaining real influence and moderate China’s behavior. It will entail saying to the US, thanks a lot, things have changed but we need a divorce.

[@richardchak696]

Look at how the interviewer put it the militarization of South China Sea. My question here from the Asian perspective the American has militarization of Pacific & militarization of East Asia with all the American bases in Philippines, Japan & military partnership in East & Southeast Asia. How ironical only China militarized but not the U.S. Ironical!!! How many US Army bases are in Asia? In addition to the potentially nine U.S. bases in the Philippines, the United States already has, by the Pentagon's own count, 313 U.S. military base sites in East Asia alone.14 Feb 2023

[@stephenyang2844]

It is time for all countries to take up Chinese language in primary and middle schools, on account of decades media's demonizing of China. It will promote understanding and conversation, leading to harmony.

[@AAAA-vu7fp]

This bloke does not know what he is talking about

[@raf2681]

Very interesting view. Hugh is a great geostrategist. I disagree with him in regards to his approach of giving away sphere of influence to China, Russia or India. It doesn't work that way. Russia can be defeated by Ukraine, they proved that Russian army can be pushed back during the fight of Kiev. The bigger problem is in the US which doesn't want to invest just a little bit more in Ukrainian army. They either are scared of what would happen to nuclear weapon in Russia after collapse of an empire or they just simply can't imagine the World without Russia. This is a main problem of US political thinking. Defeating Russia would significantly worsen also Chinese situation. It doesn't necessary mean that the whole country of Russia would collapse, dismantle. Changing the government to more pro-western would do the job. Russia sooner or later will have to fight China. Why not to speed that process up?

[@scottbuchanan9426]

If you think that "invest[ing] just a little bit more in [the] Ukrainian army" is going to lead to Russia's defeat there, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn...

[@paulmatters2641]

You will be posting in your enlistment papers for the war against PRC as part of your investment champ? Thought not.