Snowflake is Falling Because This Trend Is Going The WRONG WAY

[@contactkashif]

Love the analysis!

[@Laimiux]

I think the most recent FCF TTM is $852.1 mil based on: Apr 2024 - $331.545 mil Jan 2024 - $331.51 mil Oct 2023 - $112.16 Jul 2023 - $76.89

[@nathanvanwie643]

They’ve gotten conservative in estimates now, but back when they IPO said they would have 30% growth until 2030 I believe.

[@civilibot]

thank you brian.

[@aviverma5531]

an excellent analysis. thanks

[@Floormat212]

SNOW is at $126 today. Might be at a buy now.

[@user-td5np]

Great analogy for RPO

[@nixielee]

No idea how to judge a super overvalued company like this, it's so beyond reason they really have to reinvent the wheel (and be alone in doing so), which they are not. If the economy goes south, a company like this will suffer, it's simply too expensive for most use-cases

[@pan_bev_nice5960]

R&D is generally considered an operating expenditure (OpEx), a day-to-day business expense. R&D is usually not considered CapEx. The R&D increase may not be due to Nvidia Chips H100. (????)

[@joofbing]

This is great. I was just looking for why the margin guide down.

[@drmsgp]

would you worry at all about declining ARR?

[@lawrenceheung7920]

This compsny has a 40% abc to revenue %. It grows 34% on the revenue y-t-y. It will never have a positive Gaap earnings

[@extramild1]

Shares up 3.5% up after hours so that is something. That rising share count is kinda shocking.

[@geolykos]

I wonder if you track your realised losses or just your current unrealised profits. Seen many of your videos saying you sold after a big drop in the stock and it seems weird that you’re still so far ahead of the indexes.

[@stoffelbrian]

Two things: 1) My returns include all the warts. 2) If more than one stock I follow is reporting on a given day/week, I nearly always go with the one that's down big. Why? Because very few people watch videos on stocks that do what's expected/pop. Everyone's either moving on or celebrating. Not so with stocks that are down.

[@jerryhunter5242]

One thing Warren Buffet and Charlie munger emphasize is to make decisions based on opportunity cost. The question is if we are uncertain about SNOW’s moat, can we deploy our capital in an alternative vehicle with more certainty. The answer is always yes. It’s a personal decision. I just sold all my SNOW and bought 50% AXON and 50% MELI. I will be fine with this decision even if snow skyrockets tomorrow, which I hardly doubt.

[@FrizzelFry]

Is SNOW an aqusition target ?

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Could you do an analysis on $DELL and why it’s gone up so much this year? How do you like it? Thanx.

[@neerajkorde]

can you do a review of BRZE and KVYO ?

[@Vsioul]

After using snowflake for a year , I will never buy this overpriced stock. Snowflake is expensive, not mature and has a lot of competition.

[@eralec]

Why do you think NRR is so high then?

[@Vsioul]

@@eralec you must understand that when you first buy snowflake credits you probably don’t know how much you need. One approach could be to under provisioned the amount of credit the first year and buy more the next. However the NRR will decline over the years, it did already. Also, you must realize that people who buy snowflake are not even IT specialist themselves, they are a lot of bad manager that influenced by snowflake aggressive marketing . Look at their balance sheet, snowflake spend a ton of money on marketing. Moreover, most of its competition is private company so it is hard to compare. Also, you must be careful because on how snowflake compute NRR, because in order to keep your unused credits from your own year contract, you must commit to at least to the same amount or more, otherwise they don’t rollover your unspent credits. I guarantee you, some CEO and Presidents won’t pay, because I saw it.

[@eralec]

@@Vsioul Interesting. If I may ask what are your top 10 positions?

[@capitaldea]

I’m working in the space where Snowflake is used. With the upcoming solution of Microsoft Fabric I see Snowflakes position endangered. I’m holding a position and I’m torn between holding to it and try to find a better place for the money.

[@jacksonmatysik8007]

Have you used Palantir? If yes, what are your thoughts?

[@believeroftheword4627]

​@@jacksonmatysik8007I wonder the same...???

[@sweetiemcgee]

why did snowflake go the other direction when the market opened?

[@robin212212]

From a $ perspective S&M added a similar amount to Op ex as R&D; not sure if it's accurate to attribute the decrease in margins mostly on R&D. I know from a % perspective R&D grew more than rev; but what if R&D was $10mil and grew to $20mil; it would have had a negligible affect on total op ex despite growing 100%.

[@sa.377]

The fact that they have to spend more and more to stay relevant and competitive ( so R&D goes up ++) shows to me that the moat is not exactly widening.

[@user-bc4tg4re9c]

AI is changing everything and companies have to adapt to stay alive so I would say this might expand the moat or worst strengthen existing moat.

[@moechatly6075]

Amazing Video. Please, you need to cover UiPath. You will definitely hold a position.

[@nickjerrat]

Never invested in this one, overvalued and I don't like that their infrastructure is dependent on microsoft, amazon, google, etc.

[@Daves_Gone_Wild]

I've only got a small amount of snow I think like 65 shares. What price do you think it will be at by the end of the year?

[@jankay8569]

What a braindead question

[@hondusspa]

You’ve got about 9K in snowflake, calling it a “small amount” and you’re asking a KZbinr where they think the price “will be at by the end of the year?” Something’s not adding up here.

[@NSWSES1990]

This stock sucks

[@nikotriantafillou1972]

Hi Brian, thanks for this recap. The best and most easy to follow unpacking of SNOW earnings I have seen. Q: You didn’t mention large increase in new product sales. Another analyst mentioned that and I thought it was significant. As it could signal an acceleration of new product sales having to do with AI or other high growth products. What was your take?