Someday, There Will Be A Recession

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Today, Dr. Ed puts the notion of a recession still to come into perspective. Since 1945, the US economy has been in recession 14% of the time. Most of the nine recessions stemmed from the credit-crunching effects of monetary tightening. The most recent tightening round won’t likely trigger a recession despite the “long and variable lag” often noted before the economy reacts to tightening. That’s because this tightening round is different in many respects, one being the “Immaculate Disinflation” it has achieved (moderating inflation without a recession). For multiple reasons, we think it’s wrong to expect a hard landing still to unfold from this tightening round. … Q3 is shaping up as another immaculate quarter.

[@BitsOfInterest]

If Musk says something comes next year it's probably 5-10 years away 😂

[@maciejs5763]

Someday? Maybe today even. Lets see what NBER will say one year from now after all revisions will be done.

[@denniskaye5026]

Do you really need a credit crunch to proceed a recession? The recession in the early 2000's didn't have a credit crunch.

[@joshuaburns3167]

Take Government spending on wars and other B.S. out of GDP and lets see what we got.

[@SuperBsherman]

Think 1929

[@joshuaburns3167]

@@SuperBsherman These schmucks fail to talk about the real reasons are how they are. Yeah stocks are up and they can feel like geniuses but to claim its for healthy reasons is complete B.S.

[@______638]

...and this channel will deny it'd happening until halfway through it.

[@westwest7349]

I liked one of your slide. I would love to see a refined Capex spending on IT that would exclude hyper scalers. This would highlight capex of corporate america beyond these few players.

[@ttuck9603]

Great insights - thank you!

[@joshuaburns3167]

How are the younger generations supposed to buy a house and start a family these days Ed? The Boomers are going to die and their spending will go with them...

[@pauljcomp6621]

Max and his Crew. Jackie's info has been super. Please continue.

[@quillowl4319]

i enjoyed your discussion, and insights/perspectives, thank you.

[@AppleSeth]

I wonder if Ed will write another book on the Fed? In 2020, the Fed did such a grand experiment as compared to 2008/2009. Is the Fed now thinking they have found the golden egg and they can now stop severe economic declines from exacerbating?

[@tmangeles7575]

Hi Max. Hi Cooper.

[@saNynho]

we all know when Elon says something is coming next year it's coming next year

[@Mark-tm2zu]

What will do with all of their people if they succeed with building robots? Their birthrate is very low. But seems like unemployment will increase everywhere if robots are hired. I may be too old to see what ultimately happens.

[@Mark-tm2zu]

I hope you are correct that the Fed will just have 1 cut this year of .25%. I think you may be the only economist thinking this now. I do not think the Fed needs more than two cuts this year. I think the economy is still growing well. Slower but still growing.

[@Mark-tm2zu]

Seems like an over reaction to the jobs number today! There seems to be a significant amount of investors thinking that with yield inversion ending that it means we will go to a recession. I agree with you Wd in your book about the yield curve. Still hoping for steady growth and S&P at the ear-end if 5,600. I hope you are correct.

[@ValueAnalyst1]

Will Elon be on time? 🧐