SOUTH OSSETIA | Russia's Unwanted Conquest?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

This is a topic I have wanted to look at for ages. Even amongst de facto states, South Ossetia is a bit of an odd outlier. It really doesn't seem to want independence. Instead, it wants unification with North Ossetia, albeit within Russia. But Moscow keeps refusing. While there might seem to be an obvious answer why Russia refuses to annex it, the situation isn't quite as straightforward as it seems. So, what do YOU think Russia really wants with South Ossetia?

[@Hoopsnake]

I'd guess that Russia simply prefers frozen conflicts to resolved ones.

[@berkosmansatiroglu]

Mr. Putin, most people call him boss. He is stable and the same for many years. It's not surprising to me. Poland and Moldova are next.

[@paulstephen3257]

Excellent video as always professor. Speaking of former soviet states, it would be very interesting to have a video about the so called union state between Russia and Belarus and whether Lukashenko is going to be pressured into further integrating with Russia. Do you think his renewed threats towards Ukraine in the last couple of weeks are indications that he is being pressured to join the conflict?

[@historyking9984]

I think they don’t want to have to focus on too much at the same time. They can always have south ossetia but they don’t want issues with Georgia right now . Also are you going to do a video on the recent assassination of former Japanese Prime minister Abe that happened today. I mean he was japans longest prime minister and was killed at a campaign rally. What does this hold for the campaign for Japans upper house and how will it change the elections and Japanese politics? What will his legacy be ?

[@Adam-pu6jg]

It's not what putin wants with South Ossetia, it's what putin wants with Georgia that is the main issue. 1. Keep Georgia out of NATO: a criteria for NATO membership is settled borders. If putin annexes South Ossetia, he really has to annexe Abkhazia. With any potential settling of the Russo-Georgian border, Georgia may well then be free to join NATO. 2. putin wants to annexe Georgia itself: the Russians have actually been sneakily moving the barbed wire fence separating Georgia from South Ossetia southwards towards Tbilisi. The same situation exists in Moldova with Transnistria, it seems putin wants to use Transnistrians and Gagauzians (along with pro putin Moldovans) as model minorities to rule over an annexed Moldova, the same plan for Georgia, annexe Georgia and it's ruled over by South Ossetians, Abkhazians, Armenians, Adjaris, as well as pro putin Georgians, even if between them they don't constitute a majority of the overall population, that coalition would be sizable enough, along with russian internal security troops, to subdue Georgia

[@mr.coolmug3181]

Russia supports semi-break-away states like Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, because it means Moldova and Georgia have territorial disputes, which keeps them out of NATO.

[@neilrmartin1984]

Agreed, although increasingly I think Russia sees the EU as a bigger threat than NATO. Also, as the video aludes to its support to these non states can be intermittent at best. I'm not so familiar with the Caucasus, but I know that Transnistria has struggled for years to get sufficient budget support from Russia

[@LC-uh8if]

Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia have been supported by Russia pretty much since the USSR fell in 1991. I think Russia has kinda put itself in a situation it can't really get out of in these regions. If they abandon them, that will make Russia look unreliable to regions it wants to eventually annex. If they fully annex them, that brings international issues without any real benefit to Russia. For now, though, keeping them in this frozen state keeps Moldova and Georgia out of NATO so while that may not have been the original intention, its certainly a factor now.

[@jacqdanieles]

But those same territorial disputes meant that Ukraine could not join either. A fact that Kremlin apologists like John Mearsheimer neglect to mention while making the case that the west was "poking the bear".

[@雷-t3j]

@@jacqdanieles Those people are so annoying, but what's even more important is that Russia can end the world with it's nuclear arsenal, so it doesn't have any reason to fear military threats. But that's what it was doing in Donbass, until Putin became even more fascist and decided that all Eastern Europeans must suffer his rule, which is worryingly popular inside Russia.

[@RobBCactive]

Putin wasn't interested in diplomacy to guarantee Ukraine would not be in NATO to avert war. The claims of NATO aggression are for propaganda, blowing anti-western smoke internationally and stoking paranoia at home to justify increases repression. The fact is it was west Ukrainians revolt against Putin's Eurasian Union alternative to the EU which triggered the annexation of Crimea and the instigation of the insurgent regions in the Donbas. Ukraine had a neutrality law in place, had previously revolted against rigged elections, so was clearly rejecting Putin Overall Putin's followed a strategy laid out in a book, creating instability to try to rebuild the Russian empire, rather than peacefully accepting independent states. The Russian regime is motivated by appropriating wealth and power, not the betterment of the lives of their subjects.

[@SogaardReedWriter]

The breakaway states are used to influence Georgia politically and economically, stopping Georgia from drifting westward. In order for a country to become part of the EU, they need to have full legal control over their territory. As is the case with Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova. If Russia takes South Ossetia, they would likely also need to do the same with Abkhazia. The question is if Georgia would recognize this as legal or not? If so, they would then be able to seek their EU goal lawfully. Allowing these regions to be a thorn in the side of Tbilisi is far more advantageous than annexation.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

Didn't Cyprus become EU member eventhough half of it is occupied?

[@SogaardReedWriter]

@@delfinenteddyson9865 Interesting, I didn't realize that! I may have been confusing that territorial law in the case of NATO, as Cyprus is not part of NATO, but I would love an explanation in the case of Cyprus and the EU.

[@JL18LAZOR]

@@SogaardReedWriter for example Serbia is going to join the EU in a few years without controlling the land of Kosovo, despite the EU's point of view about that dispute (since some EU nations don't recognize Kosovo)

[@behroozkhaleghirad]

NATO requires the same standards and that's even more important for Russia. Who cares about 50k people who produce lemons. Russia doesn't need that. Russia needs them to stop Georgia to be eligible to enter NATO and EU

[@bilic8094]

@@JL18LAZOR Serbia is never joining the EU not in 10 years or 50.

[@Pizzonia295]

Few additional points: - Current Georgian government plays much more balanced game with Russia, recognizing so called SO would undermine this. While status quo basically keeps pressure on Georgia. - You ignored ethnic cleansing part. There were significant Georgian population on the territory, which was forced to move out.

[@sydneypsycho]

What's your reply on this fake professor? Ignoring ethnic cleaning?

[@aleksandercirilkozar2769]

There are 2 factors involved here, 1, Russia already has ever benefit the S.Ossttia has to offer without any costs, and 2, a united Ossetia within Russian federation would start to develop entirely new aspirations. A divided nation is easier to rule over than a unified one.

[@MrTeniguafez]

One thing that you touched on, but didn't explore in depth, is the political situation in Georgia. While you're right that the populace has increasingly looked west, PM Gharibashvili's government has actually toed the Moscow line for the most part. It's refused to place sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of the invasion, for instance -- which has not endeared Gharibashvili to the Georgian public. His government is facing massive protests over the issue and anti-Russian sentiment is at a high probably not seen since 2008. Given this, it's likely Putin and the Moscow elite want to avoid further endangering Gharibashvili's position. Outright annexing South Ossetia could potentially, even probably, be the final straw that leads to the PM's ouster, and if he is removed, he'd likely be replaced by a fervently pro-EU, anti-Russian government. With Russian forces tied up in the Ukraine fiasco, it would be the opportune time for the new Georgian leadership to attempt to retake its breakaway territories by force, and it's not clear Russia would have the means to stop it without endangering their war effort in Ukraine.

[@whitelilycalla]

A fiasco in ukraine?! Russia has not even started there. Using only 10% of the Russian military forces, there will not be any issue for Russia to show to Georgia or to anyone else where they belong.. 😉

[@MrTeniguafez]

@@whitelilycalla Yeah I'm sure. Any day now

[@Spacemongerr]

Thanks for the information

[@noureddine3648]

retaking the 2 regions by force is HUGE gamble even for a pro-western politician in georgia , especially post 2008 , also remember while they seem like an easy target now and it is tempting to do it now , there's a real possibility that Ukraine will accept a ceasfire even without a peace deal if they lose sloviansk-kramatorsk ( = all of donbass ) , then georgia will be extremly vulnerable with russia lazer focused on them .

[@whitelilycalla]

@@MrTeniguafez I am sure too🤪

[@davidtindell950]

Thank You. As others have commented, by not proceeding with S.O. annexation, the Kremlin makes it difficult for Georgia to join NATO and Russia keeps the "West" guessing. Also, there are probably individuals that are obscenely wealthy because of the current situation and these "mini-oligarchs" want to maintain the status quo and their own obscene debauchery.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank David. I know what you mean. But technically it would make no difference if Russia annexed it. Under international law, such a move would be illegal. NATO and the rest of the world (except for a few outliers) wouldn't accept that loss. In that sense, Georgia would still have a territorial dispute. It would just mean that the prospect of ever settling it had become less likely. But in essence one could argue that little would have changed. Georgia is blocked either way.

[@knowthesigns8340]

This comment is not to disagree per say because your points are valid. As a child of a Georgian mother I can speak to this. Putin I believe is taking the long view. First off South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Georgian in background. Yes they have a slightly different ethnic and culture makeup, language but they are similar peoples with minor differences and should be able to live together in harmony. With this in mind, from Russia perspective accepting South Ossetia would certainly push Georgia under the current political regime and the population to increase the desire to join nato (even though there would be a majority that majority would not be overwhelming in my view). Putin is hoping to cause a leadership change in Georgia, which I believe is inevitable. If you watch Georgian media there is a 50 50 divide between those that wants to align with the EU and USA and those that want to be aligned with Russia. Of course no one even thoses that want to align with Russia is not to push for “recreation of the Soviet Union” per say but having an alliances with Russia that is at least not adversarial toward Russia or it’s interests and at best a net benefit to Georgia and growing itself while not sacrificing its unique culture makeup to a much more bureaucratic organization like the EU which will be Georgia’s undoing if it joins. It’s one thing to be an independent state but it’s another to be independent and hostile towards its much larger neighbor and Georgia would be best serve to toe this line while focusing on improving itself without being influence by the EU or USA which is already causing more chaos then stability for its future. Georgia like the rest of the world has to strike a balance. Of course the Soviet Union came undone because it was unbalanced, overly repressive and highly bureaucratic and not lead properly. That said there are many aspect of live in the Soviet Union that were worth preserving and unfortunately the time in which the breakup occurred these aspect were never considered in any meaningful way. Quite frankly the same can be said for today’s leaders in the west. It all comes down to leaders that are wise that are skilled and that can gain the respect of people’s are the world to do one thing; encourage peace and stability. I believe it was Napoleon, ironically of all historical figures whom said that I paraphrase “To GAIN power, one sometimes has to display absolute pettiness to achieve. To EXERCISE power effectively, one has to display true greatness.” Using this quotation as a benchmark, the world is sadly in short supply of such individual that are beyond the here and now and see the eyes through the people that are responsible for. If we had those leaders our defense industries would be out of work and countries like Ukraine would not have to sacrifice its best and brightest to enriched there greedy coffers.

[@davidtindell950]

@@knowthesigns8340 I hope Putin has a shorter Lifespan but with infinite Wealth he could live long. ... Good Luck to You and to Us All. ...

[@MWENDA-vv5im]

The vote will takes place after the conflict in Ukraine ends or stops being too involving for Russia. Those who think that Russia annexing South Ossetia will allow Georgia to join NATO are so wrong. For one, Georgia will have to recognize South Ossetia's sovereignty and that will never happen. Same goes for Abkhazia. Russia annexing South Ossetia changes nothing. BTW, Abkhazia has already made it clear that it has no interest whatsoever to join the Russian Federation.

[@ikaika4290]

Thank you for bringing this topic about Georgia to discussion

[@qwemp]

Of all of the channels on KZbin, yours deserves to climb the algorithm.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!! :-)

[@Imereti2003]

South Ossetia (Georgian Samachablo) always will be Georgia 🇬🇪

[@FNeway]

Keep dreaming. If you keep conspiring with the West , Russia will take over Tibilisi.

[@reanimationeas342]

Russia is happy to sow discord in any area as long as it becomes a pain for countries it hates and has useful resources

[@GXM1210]

The reason why it wasn't integrated is because they want Georgia in some form in their orbit. Integrating would put Georgia on permanent anti-Russian stance.

[@nickmacarius3012]

Russia is already getting what it needs out of Abkhazia & South Ossetia. As long as Georgia has a territorial dispute they won't be allow to join the EU nor NATO. Moreover, South Ossetia allows for Russia to be within an arms reach of the CTB pipeline.

[@vasilimacharadze139]

Russia had a better option: to stay friend with georgia, instead of blackmail strategies. But yeah, thats the russia..

[@dzabakh]

@@vasilimacharadze139I guess friendship should be a two-way initiative while Georgia has decided about everything it wants to do (EU, NATO). As an Ossetian, I would also like to be a friend with georgia, but that’s georgia, right?

[@vasilimacharadze139]

@@dzabakh not sure i understand you. EU = Democracy. NATO = security. If not 1992 russian invesion, Georgia would not think of NATO. If Putin would not impose its coruptive oligarchic autocracy on neighbors, Georgia would survive wiithout EU es a guarant for democracy.

[@Asamations]

I never even heard about this until you made a video on it. Thanks James! My belief is that, Russia refused to annex it, as the country already has a lot of heat on it due to the Ukraine War, but also so as to use it as a bargaining chip against the Georgians.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Asa. It really has taken me too long to get round to this topic. Seriously, it’s been on my to-do list since starting the channel! I actually wrote a book about how states prevent breakaway territories from being recognised. The three cases I looked at were Cyprus (TRNC), Serbia (Kosovo), and Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia). global.oup.com/academic/product/the-foreign-policy-of-counter-secession-9780199698394?cc=ro&lang=en& This is such an interesting story. And very different from Abkhazia.

[@kw2142]

@@JamesKerLindsay ah damn that looks like an interesting book, altho so damn expensive! Academic books tend to be! Any discounts available?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@@kw2142 Thanks. Sorry about that. I didn’t put it there in the hope that anyone would want to buy it. It was more to show I’d done done work on this issue in the past. Sadly, academic books are shockingly expensive. (Although my next book, which will be published soon, will be very affordable, I promise. 😉😄) global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049?lang=en&cc=ro

[@bartvissers4682]

Your channel is a gem on youtube.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed! :-)

[@FredoRockwell]

A great deep dive into one of my favourite topics! And I learned so much! For example, I read that Moscow did not support Gagloev in the election, but it sounds here like they did (or they supported his position on the referendum at least - by the way, he seems like someone with a colourful past from what I've read). Whatever their reason, I'm really glad that Russia isn't anxious to annex South Ossetia anytime soon. It would undoubtedly stoke tensions with Georgia, and considering how weird Russia's sense of nationalism has become who knows what that could lead to.... Thanks again!

[@Bdog40]

Hey I know you. You're the guy with shitty geopolitical takes that promote western liberal American hegemony.

[@profesor1992able]

As always amazing dear Professor. The current events in Republic of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous republic in Uzbekistan is worth covering I believe.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Albert. Great suggestion. It is one of two topics I really want to cover next week. I haven’t quite decided yet. I hope all else is well with you. Very warmest regards, as ever. :-)

[@beezelsub]

Oh, that's real.

[@nielsreyngoud2870]

Extremely interesting video! Thank you for the research. South Ossetia indeed seems to be the odd one out in the list of de facto states such as Abkhazia and Pridnestrovia. I wonder what we will learn about this in the future.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot Niels. You are absolutely right. I really is the odd one out in many ways.

[@llllllllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIIII]

@@JamesKerLindsay Doctor Ker-Lindsay, great video, but I'm wondering why isn't Abkhazia also an "odd one out"? In my mind they look like two birds of a feather, holes in the map of Georgia that are twin prongs of Russia's strategy to destabilize the country. What is going on in Abkhazia, and what makes it a "normal" breakaway state (insofar as these entities can be "normal")?

[@dainomite]

I’ve been waiting for this episode for so long! Thanks James! It is fascinating that South Ossetia didn’t exist as a state (autonomous or not) until the USSR created it out of thin air in 1921. It seems to me like they did it after the Soviet-Georgian War to maintain internal strife within the Georgia SSR.

[@dainomite]

@@sometimes34 there literally was no state, autonomous region, or even an administrative division of any kind for “South Ossetia” until the USSR created it in 1921. Not under the short lived Georgian republic (1918-1921), the Tiflis Governorate (1846-1917), the Georgia-Imeretia Governorate (1840-1864), Georgian Governorate (1801-1840), or going further back. The North Caucasus was split up into various Oblasts and Okrugs within the Caucasus Viceroyalty (which also had the aforementioned 3 Georgian Governorates under their umbrella)

[@sababugs1125]

@@sometimes34 name 1 king of South Ossetia I can name multiple of the kingdom of Georgia David IV Bagrat III Tamar Etc Etc

[@johndewey6358]

@@sometimes34 Are you suggesting that people do not have a right to self rule? The Ossetians, Alans and many other caucuses people have existed for millennia before there was a phony entity like Russia or USSR.

[@johndewey6358]

@@sometimes34 Are you suggesting that people do not have a right to self rule? The Ossetians, Alans and many other caucuses people have existed for millennia before there was a phony entity like Russia or USSR.

[@sababugs1125]

@@sometimes34 ok then explain why south ossetian cities since the beginning of time have had Georgian names ?

[@_5_675]

Very interesting thanks. Nice lighting.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much! :-)

[@FlyingGospel]

I love you professor! Much underrated channel. May you thrive and drown in cash for all the hard work you do for us loyal and passionate fans!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Maybe one day! :-) Seriously, thanks a lot for the support. I really appreciate it enormously. Have a great weekend!

[@larrylaidlaw1869]

Thanks!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much Larry. I am so incredibly sorry that I didn't reply sooner. You must think I am very rude. My sincerest apologies. I tend to use the KZbin app during the day and this doesn't highlight Super Thanks. (A terrible omission by KZbin.) That really was very kind of you. And truly appreciated.

[@victordandanell9741]

Brilliant work! Looking forward to more of your videos.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Victor. I really appreciate it.

[@harrymills2770]

I'll take your word for it and thank you for the history lesson. We see some of the same things happening in the USA, where huge swaths of territory want to break away from domination by delusional and out-of-touch city-dwellers. Let them have the coastal cities. But make everything East of the Cascades part of Greater Idaho. Let Portland and Seattle do their thing, but don't let them make the rules for people who live outside the Urban Bubble.

[@gaga7755]

As a Georgian, I can say that actually Russia does not need to annex Samachablo(so-called South Ossetia). Russia has been using it to make influence on Georgia's foreign affairs, especially its western aspiration. Russia recognized Abkhazia and "south ossetia" in 2008 to top off Georgian government, who had a clear pro-western course. Now, current Georgian government has been considering some interests of Russia in the region, so they don't want to change this status-quo, they have made in relationship with Georgia. Russia is like: I would not annex your territories, unless you behave 'badly'. On the other hand, couple of weeks ago EU granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, but not to Georgia despite the fact that, it is not behind to these countries by criterias they have considered while making a decision. This strained the relationship between the Georgian government and the European leadership, as the Georgian authorities began to wage anti-Western propaganda through its own media. I think European policymakers might have considered this option. It might push Georgia back to Russian political influence. Russia is an existential threat for not only Georgian sovereignity, but for our national identity as a whole. That's why we have been trying to find an ally in west, not since the dissolusion of USSR, but since the fall of constantinople back to 1453, when Georgia have been cut off from European Civilisation. I want to believe that the West would not sacrifice us to the Russia.

[@suspendedtwice4sayingrasis261]

The EU hasn't received Turkey, so it's not like they're going to let Georgia in, a rather far away state from any other European nation. Unfortunately, I think until Turkey sets itself in order and stop being totalitarian and unsecular, Georgia can't even consider joining the EU.

[@gaga7755]

@Anonymous Bosch 😀 Communists had no nationality. Stalin was such a Georgian as I am Japanese.

[@behroozkhaleghirad]

I'm Iranian and Russia has annexed our territory before. Georgia used to be a part of Iran but Russia took it. All I can say is that it's very unfortunate to be a small country right next to any major/super power. Unfortunately Georgia simply cannot choose for itself, Russia won't allow it. And believe me West will willingly sacrifice you to Russia if their interests are met. You are stuck between a rock and a hard place, you must "balance" your foreign policy to such an extent that you don't become a Russian puppet or get annexed by them. Far from perfect but the only practical solution

[@behroozkhaleghirad]

@Anonymous Bosch no

[@whitelilycalla]

@Anonymous Bosch great call, brother!👍👍👍

[@gigachaduneli1121]

Interesting explanation. I want to make some corrections about its history. South Ossetia term dates back from 19th century when ossetian people started their migration in georgia. Region that is today south ossetia is known as shida kartli region among georgians. What i am saying that "two ossetias" never were united and throughout history it belonged to georgia. Even after russian empire anexed georgia south ossetia remained part of georgia. They were never divided by 1917 revolution.

[@jeanpascaud4218]

Thank you VERY VERY much for the english subtitles. Because i dont understand the vocal english. Your contribution is also instructive. best regards from Paris.

[@kelvinbenny2001]

Thank you Professor

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks!

[@euroasiabtlimited3208]

Excellent article .

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Really appreciated!

[@mesamies123]

Excellent, and you are correct, Professor: there is more to Russia's 'rejection'--if I understand this thorough, intelligent talk. Thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. It is one of those really interesting situations where you know that there is a lot behind the story, but it is unclear what. Apparently, even in the Kremlin there are disputes about what to do; with hawks calling for annexation and the more dovish speaking against it.

[@Mypromiselive]

That was a great video, you covered the topic perfectly

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! This was a topic that I had wanted to do for ages. In fact, I had been meaning to cover it since I started the channel. I also hope to look at Abkhazia at some point.

[@rymoe6299]

Really enjoyed this video Presented like a Pro!

[@compassrise]

Ukraine could not join NATO (at least in part) because of the border disputes "imposed" by Russia in 2014. Might Putin intend to restrict Georgia's chances by refusing to eliminate a disputed border?

[@mikaels6009]

Imposed by the illegal coupe that ousted a democratic elected president which caused a uprising in Easter Ukraine and Russia entering the ring.

[@learning7140]

There's no disputed border on Russia's side, only on Georgia's side. If Georgia recognizes those regions as independent, it can apply to NATO. I'm sure the USA will get around to it with the Georgian government at some point.

[@compassrise]

@@mikaels6009 You Poootinistas are such LIARS!

[@kingsleyunogaozirigbo8901]

Well spoken Sir

[@powasjington4262]

Does anyone remember that guy Zangief from Street Fighter? He was Ossetian or based on a real guy who was Ossetian.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Brilliant. You are right. As someone who spent more than his fair share playing Street Fighter in my last years at school, I really appreciated that random factoid. Thanks. :-)

[@peterkops6431]

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

[@sae136]

South Ossetia and Abkhazia is Georgia

[@zaurgamkrelidze1064]

The analysis was quite shallow. There have never been two Ossetias, the so called "South Ossetia" always was a historic georgian land populated by ethnic georgians. Ossetians only showed up from the 17th century, they crossed the mountains and started working for georgian landlords, then they settled in few villages. "South Ossetia" is yet another artificial ethnic conflict created by Soviet Union in order to divide and control the states they annexed. Georgians have no problems with Ossetians or any other minority living within its borders, if there was no Russian factor we would live peacefully together. Russia uses both Abkhazia and "South Ossetia" to blackmail Georgia and keep its integration with west under control. They have no other interest with these territories, let alone, they definitely don't worry about their living standards

[@jackburgess8579]

>>""South Ossetia" is yet another artificial ethnic conflict created by Soviet Union" Obviously not, since South Ossetia wants to be assimilated into the Russian Federation.

[@zaurgamkrelidze1064]

@@jackburgess8579 after years of Russian brainwashing they think we are their enemies and we want to kill them which is a lie. Even now when the war began in Ukraine, they had fears we were about to go to Tskinvali with tanks, I have not even heard an idea of such plan in Georgia, Bibilov came out of the referendum idea based on that fear. Minorities have no problems in Georgia, there are regions populated by ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis and the government cares about them just like any other citizen. Georgians consider Ossetians and Apkhaz people as their brothers and if there were no Russian military bases in those regions all the conflict would be sorted out within months without a single gunshot.

[@zaurgamkrelidze1064]

Nor Abkhazi neither Ossetian people were ethnic majority in these regions when the conflict started. With Russian help they carried out an ethnic cleansing of Georgians, more than 300 000 people had to leave their homes.

[@logan1769]

Yes! I recently started reading about South Oessetia and was thinking of recommending the topic to you. You’re always one step ahead haha

[@kashmirha]

it’s pretty simple. If south osetia became russia, they lose all their bargain chips on Georgia, can not block their NATO membership, and e integration, and they have nothing positive having a new region, since russia is already way way too big to normally govern in a russian style. I mean tou can govern but the tensions are increasing in every parts.

[@vshioshvili]

At minute 6, the video shows“overwhelming” result of 99% supporting independence in 2006 referendum, but that claim seems a bit odd given that until the 2008 war, the territory within the administrative boundary of the so-called “South Ossetia” was a patchwork of Ossetian and Georgian villages, where Ossetians overall definitely did not represent a majority. Throughout the whole video, actually, there is little to no mention that it is territory that had mixed population, and that ethnic Georgians were expelled/forced to leave. And all the houses razed to erase every trace of them ever living there. 99% of what population actually voted for this independence? If 100 people in Tskhinvali decided to vote and 99 of them said we want independence, would that be considered a valid referendum? These referendums on statehood are always overwhelming in their outcomes, but never clear about the number of people who participated and who and why were excluded from participation. While overall this video might seems well informed and objective, I have to say, it tries to do a rough summation of a complex subject, and is not doing a great job. There are many intricacies that are being left out that would make a listener come to conclusions that are not exactly correct.

[@giodanisi7559]

I agree, however the same could be said with the various referenda that are at the base of the formation of indipendent countries out of Soviet Union (or simply declaration of indipendence without referenda). Have the population of Abkazia, South Ossezia, Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria been consulted of they wanted to be part of Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine or they maybe preferred given their Russian ties, to not join the new forming countries? That is were everything has been originated.

[@salec7592]

It seems that wish for unification of Ossetia is the drive behind South Ossetian separatism. Russia handing South Ossetia back to Georgia could spawn separatism of North Ossetia - within Russia's own borders. However, once the people of Ossetia is united, they might as well want their full independence, whichever nation they end up in. So, in a way, keeping the problem open for indefinite time is keeping North Ossetia within Russia?

[@avantelvsitania3359]

While South Ossetia and Abkhazia May seem two examples of unrecognized States, they have a great distinction between them and in their formation. And this difference can made difficult any future settlement with Georgia. On one side, the Abkhaz are natives to Abkhazia. They are the indigenous people of the region and while through the centuries Georgia has expanded it’s State along the coast, the inhabitants north of the Ghalidzga river were always the Abkhaz. So in basis of self-determination, the Abkhaz should have their sovereig State on their indigenous land. But Georgia should receive back the Gali district, south of the Ghalidzga, inhabited to this day by native Mingrelians/Georgians. South Ossetia on the other hand is more complicated. Unlike the Abkhaz Ossetians are not indigenous to the South Caucasus. They only started migrating across the mountains by pressure of Circassians in the XVII century, but even then the territory settled by them was relatively small. It was only during the XIX century that they expanded roughly to the present borders of South Ossetia. But the original, native, inhabitants of that region South of the Caucasus were always Georgians. There were Georgians there for centuries much before the Ossetian migrations. So Georgia would have trouble in recognizing the independence of its native territory. But we cannot ignore that the Ossetians live there today. It’s a complicated issue. This difference between Abkhazia and South Ossetia could also be seen with the issue of the referendum. South Ossetia is ready to give up its sovereignty. But Abkhazia, while heavily dependent on Russia, always avoided effective integration with the Federation. For them Russia is an ally to get independence from Georgia, not a substitute overlord.

[@karfomachet7265]

South Ossetia was not the only region of the sth Caucasus settled by Ossetians , the trialeti region was all so an Ossetian majority area and the Sth Ossetians had in fact wanted it included in the Sth Ossetia autonomy as an exclave . Georgia has since depopulated this area of ethnic Ossetians because they fear that if the ethnic Armenians in Javakheti were all so to leave Georgia the Trialeti Ossetians and the sth Ossetians could then cut Georgia in half .

[@stephenarbon2227]

I remember reading in the history of the Alans, that some went across the mountains to help stop the Muslim invasion, that would I presume was before the crusades and they stayed in the South.

[@rayian536]

It is a substitute overlord in the end tho. And the Abkhaz themselves know this. If the West were to guarantee Abkhazia's indep they would drop down Russia in an instant.

[@takogogokhia2625]

there is no excised osetia !! real name is Sanachablo!🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪 historical Georgian land !🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪

[@Maleficarum999]

Looking to a Georgia as an overlord is a bit off remark. Georgia is the only country in the Caucasus region (I'm also counting North Caucasian republics) that's not an effective ethnostate, and all minorities have representatives, it's not an empire that gets directive from Tbilisi and they have no voice in it. Adjara even has an elevated status as Autonomous Republic and has it's own executive and legislative branch, same status is also envisioned for Abkhazia in Georgian constitution, in fact unification of Georgia will trigger a series of government overhaul, parliament becomes bicameral where Adjara and Abkhazia will have permanent guaranteed representation in senate (upper chamber). So treating Georgia as a potential overlord is just not fair, it has made more than enough concessions to Abkhazia, disregarding right to return for 300,000 internally displaced Georgians is not up to negotiations.

[@cinemaipswich4636]

Putin's usually uses "Russian Speaking" people, when it come to Ukraine. This not the case for South Ossetia. Perhaps the leaders there think that their lives will prosper under Russian patronage, but Russia does not want the financial burden that would occur if a union takes place.

[@upirrr]

awesome and balanced view on this conflict, thank you

[@Behemoth29]

Great video!

[@timor64]

Perhaps it suits Russia to have Georgia's borders unsettled.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Very true. The question is to what end. With Ukraine, one wonders what happens next. Does Putin go all in and try to annexe South Ossetia? Difficult to know now.

[@timor64]

@@JamesKerLindsay My thoughts are that having a messy unsettled border makes Georgia a less appealing candiate to the EU.

[@merocaine]

Cashing in the Ossetian chip now will not gain Russia much, best to keep it in the back pocket for now. As you said it would be a useful bargaining chip with Georgia down the line. Perhaps the Russians could insert it into Georgia in some kind of federal deal which would give South Ossetia some kind of autonomy, but allow Russia to expand its influence in Georgia itself. Political realities change, perhaps South Ossetia could lead to a raprochment between Georgia and Russia down the line.

[@pax6833]

Same reason Mongolia never became part of the USSR despite petitioning the USSR many times. It was more useful as a bargaining chip to China.

[@merocaine]

@@pax6833 I never knew that, I'll have to read up on it, thanks.

[@giorgim4185]

Someting like autonumus region with the power to veto any anti russian law

[@lioneldemun6033]

Your comment is a tad cynical. And the wishes of the locals ? It's ( or it should be) the essential factor here.

[@lioneldemun6033]

@@pax6833 If my country (F) was in the position of Russia there would be no " bargaining chips" policy.Mongolia would have been swallowed.F as an imperialist colonialist power has always tried to expand itself by all means in the course of her history.That ' s the reason why it is still up to now the biggest Western European country in terms of size.

[@mouniash]

I think the status quo whereby South Ossetia is a defacto part of Russia is more favorable to Russia than formal annexation. Like you said there are no big domestic political dividends for doing so since the region isnt populated by ethnic Russians and doesn't have any special historical significance to Russia. And also formal annexation would ruin relations with Georgia which are at the moment are OK. Georgia hasn't imposed sanctions on Russia and is in fact being used as a platform to circumvent certain banking sanctions.

[@mathewvanostin7118]

Also those 2 states isnt of big economic value. They would basicaly have to welfare sponsor it 😂 If it was azerbajan or kazakastan. They would be happy to annex it asap 😂

[@MrDisaster25]

@@mathewvanostin7118 There is a difference between talking about facts and about things you just ASSUME or THINK.

[@kw2142]

great video! I await your video on Abkhazia! lol also liked your video on Romania/moldova, would be cool to explore the potential break away region of Gaugazia also in more detail

[@hugodesrosiers-plaisance3156]

Great material, Professor, very interesting. I've been familiar with the Ossetian issue, as well as some of the other Caucasian issues (too many, it seems) for close to a decade now, and while I certainly don't claim to have any credential, I do feel sufficiently familiar with the material to offer what might be the start of an answer to "what's going on". In essence, I think it's fundamentally similar to the Fergana Valley situation: the Russians like their neighbours unstable and pliable. Annexing South Ossetia would, as I understand it, resolve the issue and thus, stabilize the area, which then ceases to be useful to Moscow. I'm looking forward to your answer, I really enjoy the brainfood you bring me! Cheers!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Hugo. A few others have also mentioned tat annexing it would solve the problem. Yes and no. It would certainly make it a lot harder to solve, but it wouldn't actually solve it. International law does not accept the annexation of another country's territory. In that regard, Russian annexation would not be recognised by the international community. Georgia would still be left with a territorial dispute - unless, after annexation, Tbilisi then decided to renounce its claim to SO. However, I couldn't see it doing that. In this sense, I'm not sure annexation would fundamentally change the situation. In this sense, Russia could go ahead and do it and there would still be an issue that would make Georgia's path towards NATO (and maybe the EU) difficult.

[@guramq2149]

Divide and Conquer

[@abdulazizalghfri1213]

كلام مهم جدا.. نشكرك على ذالك ان كان بإمكانك ترجمة جميع حلقاتك إلى اللغة العربية

[@giorgim4185]

You forgot to mention almost all of the georgians who lived in this regions and represented maijority were expeled by russians, only people left in region were russian loyalists or russian solders and there families. Thus saying how 99% of population supported independence/unification with russia is misleading. As for the why they woudn't just annex there breakway regions are one it would make supporting other independence movements harder (it's hard to convince minority people they should fight for independence) if last guys you promised that was officiali annexed. Second reason is these maintenece of this regions cost a money and if it was to integrate into russian federation proper welfare cost would increase too

[@SandroS123]

Mec qartveli var lmao

[@yellowwasprakija2869]

Professor James, with both Juz Ossetia and Abkhazia, what is the energy situation/where are gas pipelines? That might be useful in understanding different goals

[@tomtsuka7662]

Sorry I inadvertently touched the wrong part of my computer and sent my article without completing it. The Eu Charter expressly stated that any member must abide by its military policies which in essence are NATO policies since most Eu members are NATO members, especially the most important and militarily powerful ones. South Ossetia therefore is both a reminder and a guarantee that Georgia not try to militarize itself nor become a tool for NATO for anti Russian subversive activities such as a defacto NATO member and a western NATO INTELLIGENCE hub for destabilizing the northern Caucasus and beyond. As far as Abkhazia is concerned RUSSIA will never give it back to Georgia. Historically it was part of Russia as autonomous Republic and it was given k to Georgia as a "gift" by Stalin and also by Beria who himself was a mingrelian and whose people made up the majority of the population by settling and squeezing out the indigenous Abkhazians over the years. The mingrelian speak mingrelian which is related to Georgian as Ukrainian is to Russian but who identify as Georgians and use Georgian as their written language and maintain mingrelian as an oral language. Russia does not want to see Abkhazia turned into a NATO or EU naval base in the black Sea against Russia. It should be remembered that initially Saakashvili was appointed by podorenko the previous UKRAINIAN president as head of Odessa oblast and with the support and organization through NATO and UK and US military intelligence went on record that he would build Odessa the port city into a powerful NATO naval base to oppose the Russian naval base in Sebastopol in the Crimea.. however he ran afoul with the Ukrainian government and elites over his populist accusations of corruption and his manoeuvring to set himself up as a potential future president of Ukraine. This in turn got the Ukrainian government to take away his Ukrainian citizenship and finally expelled him from Ukraine. And this saga now continues in Georgia and his imprisonment there. As Shakespeare said o what a complicated web that we whieve. I'm paraphrasing of course. By the way your video was insightful keep up the good work and have open informed and Frank discussions.

[@rpgbb]

I was in Georgia in Autumn 1991 before the Civil War. The hotel only offered vodka and caviar. Really beautiful place. Abkhazia coast is particularly magical. Pity can’t go there that easily. My mother lived in Moscow back in the 1980s, according her, the Soviet Union was a giant with sand feet. She says now the same about the USA… It makes me wonder, considering the mess and conflicts that still the fall of the Soviet Union left, was there a way for the Union to keep existing in some way? Or was already condemned by 1924? With hindsight, the founder of the CHEKA, Felix Dzerzhinsky was somehow right. He opposed the creation of Soviet Republics. Any thoughts? It might be that reform and some compromises are more useful than revolution and chaos. Take for example Yugoslavia, they were in talks with the EEC back in the 1980s. Could they had found some arrangements? I think the issues of the collapse of the Soviet Union are still important, not only because of the mess in Ukraine but for future questions like for China if the CCP collapses, for Nigeria, Spain, Iraq and even for the European Union

[@giuseppecappelluti3626]

As put by Dmitrij Trenin, the only possible solution to South Ossetia’s issue is an Andorran-like Russo-Georgian condominium. But, in order for this to happen, time is needed, as well as a step back from both sides

[@L4wr3nc3810]

Id say the solution is independence and reunion with NO, followed by economic union with other unrecognised caucasian republics

[@stuarttupp3541]

Russia can't afford multiple conflicts right now, and they know it. The real question is "why doesn't Georgia take South Ossetia back while Russia is stretched militarily"?

[@sababugs1125]

Because we don't have the army for that . We've got 36k men . The russians probably have a reserve of at least 50k not in conflict right now just in case something happens

[@stuarttupp3541]

Would the Russians really use fifty thousand reservists to protect 35000 people?!? Who am I kidding - of course they would. This is a country that would liberate a city by flattening every building in it.

[@tiitsaul9036]

Thanks

[@teknologicanggih3126]

A great video, West Papuan is facing the same problem. It has given independence by Netherland, but Indonesia invaded them. I hope you will talk about it as well.

[@doctorgamerstron6674]

Now Nigerians are scared that the government is compromised with Islamist sympathizers. A navy barrack and army barrack Is 40minutes to 1hr away from the jail(kuje), they even gave a sermon in the jail as they assaulted it. It is scary in Nigeria.

[@illuminaticomfirmed6948]

I think there needs to be consideration of the ethnic and demographic dimension to this. In Russia non-East Slavs(Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Rusyns) have lower birthrates than their non-Slavic counter parts. As Russia becomes more ethnically diverse there will be less social cohesion and separatist movements are likely to be strengthened. This was an observation made by Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower”, and he seemingly predicted quite effectively that Russia would annex territory from Eastern Ukraine to gain more Russians. However, another element is that Ukrainians and Belarusians are East Slavs and could be considered partially Russified and the easiest groups to assimilate. Hence why Russia signed a union state agreement with Belarus and not say Kazakhstan. Hence why Russian is annexing territory from Ukraine but not accepting South Ossetia or Abkhazia into the Federation. This is not to say ethnicity is the only reason for the discrepancy in behaviour but this could be a factor at play.

[@learning7140]

No, Zeihan was wrong because the population in East Ukraine wasn't young so not a good way to "get more Russians". Also, if Kazakhstan wanted to enter into a Union State agreement with Russia, Russia would accept. Besides, Kazakhstan has a quite large ethnic Russian population who had actually tried to separate once, but they didn't at the end. I'm surprised that no-one here seems to point out that Putin and Lavrov have always followed International Law, which is why they never annexed an area till 2014 with Crimea. This is why Putin didn't want Donbass to hold a referendum to get independence from Kiev and join Russia in 2014, but they didn't listen to him. Still, he didn't recognise the two People Republics and tried to respect Ukraine's borders through the Minsk agreements. If Kiev had respected the agreements, Ukraine would be whole - but Kiev's government never cared about the Ukrainians in those areas, they only wanted the land.

[@docall18]

Zeihan is a neo-con mouthpiece. Anything he says needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[@illuminaticomfirmed6948]

@@learning7140 That's speculation though, the fact of the matter is is that Russia has annexed territory with Ukraine and has not done so with Georgia. There is a difference in behaviour that requires explanation and the ethnic dimension is one. Also more Slavs is still more Slavs regardless of age.

[@illuminaticomfirmed6948]

@@docall18 I agree but I think his analysis of Russian interests and behaviour is accurate. What I find about his analyses that are biased is his analysis of Western countries. France, New Zealand and especially America are undergoing rapid demographic change like Russia of non-European ethnic minorities, America has it worse than Russia even. And yet this is fine because America is 'A settler state' or something even though historically America was a European nationalist country that did not give citizenship to non-Europeans. Its a bizarre contradiction.

[@Sebajstard]

Very interesting. First time I see your videos. But what about Abkhazia? Could you make a video about their situation?

[@tomtsuka7662]

This is the second part of my article the first part is with your replies. Sorry for this disjointed article.

[@aaronjones8905]

It seems to me, that the South Ossetians would be better off in Georgia considering they would be largely ignored inside of Russia. They could negotiate massive influence in Georgia, and probably even get Georgia to commit to neutrality. I don't understand the hesitancy on Russia's part unless they don't have the money to make it seem worthwhile to the South Ossetians. There are reports that Crimea is suffering right now because Russian subsidies have been cut.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Aaron. That’s often the irony in these situations. The problem is that the country that they have broken away from often doesn’t want to offer the extensive autonomy to attract them back, and the breakaway states often have an inflated sense of their value and make unreasonable demands. It is a very big gap to bridge in many cases.

[@sababugs1125]

@@JamesKerLindsay south Ossetia is by georgian law an autonomous entity with the possibility of becoming an entire autonomous republic if they reintegrate

[@Pavlos_Charalambous]

That reminds me the time when the Greek prime minister Plastiras told Makarios the shouldn't try to unite Cyprus with Greece because" Greece has American and British lungs don't ask from motherland to suffocate " It seems that Russia can't manage to open a new front, at least for the time being and mostly interested on keeping the threat of a new invasion than actually making a move.. At least until they have a conclusion that would be positive for them in Ukraine

[@lashachakhunashvili1399]

The primary distinction between Abkhazia and "South Ossetia" is that the Ossetians (once the most integrated ethnic minority of Georgia) love Russia and the Abkhazs (the most ethnocentric and tribally inward-looking minorities of Georgia) hate Georgia. Hence their "policies".

[@rayian536]

Indeed, if a country like Turkey or the West guaranteed the independence of Abkhazia they would drop Russia in an instant.

[@gabrielesimion3074]

@@rayian536 it is not necessary to recognise Abkhazia as ndipendent: it would be sufficient giving them a lot of money

[@rayian536]

@@gabrielesimion3074 Money isn't the issue. What abkhazia needs is millitary protection.

[@Maleficarum999]

@@rayian536 What Abkhazia needs is to become part of Georgia as an autonomous republic and escape Soviet time warp. You know there was a third breakaway region of Georgia called Adjara, it was incorporated into Georgia and now it's the most prosperous region of the country, Abkhazians need to visit Batumi and understand that can be their life.

[@rayian536]

@@Maleficarum999 I have been to Adjara. More specifically Batumi. It's was even less developped than my shitty third world country. I didnt stay there much and I assumed that Tblisi would have looked much better. Is that not the case?

[@pplanetEarth]

I think the reason is more obvious than it sounds: since Russia has it's own ethnic Ossetian people (North Ossetia), unification of South Ossetia with Russia, in effect with North Ossetia, would strengthen statehood and identity of Ossetians, leading to divergence of Ossetia from Russia as one state in future. This is the core reason, it has happened in other similar situations too.

[@ИНТЕР.КОМ]

Весьма глубокое понимание проблемы для британца xD Отличная работа, профессор. По вопросу Осетии и Абхазии: Южный Кавказ весьма интересный и важный для России регион. Каждая из трёх стран - Грузия, Азербайджан и Армения - была в составе СССР, до сих пор испытывает сильное воздействие не только в экономическом, но и культурном-информационном плане и не имеет заранее враждебного отношения к России и её методам. Россия также старается быть аккуратной в Карабахе, защищая только признанные на международном уровне территории Армении. Всё это позволяет держать открытым окно возможного возобновления союза с Россией и Грузией, и Азербайджаном. Аннексия же многие двери окончательно закроет.

[@roddychristodoulou9111]

I can't see anything untoward here as Russia being in a state of war deems this vote as untimely . Russia's preferred position would be to to support all breakaway regions to the hilt , it just makes more sense and keeps any said country as a kind of serf to Russia . America does exactly the same to other countries but in a different way .

[@krishnar1182]

Thank you for this well-done, informative video. I had been wondering about this. My own opinion is that this is a "bargaining chip" as you suggested and that the idea of de facto annexation (but not de jure) is likely to continue to be Russia's modus operand. I suspect that if the "special operation" reaches Transnistria that Russia will be do something similar there. This gives Russia effective control over the territories and their peoples, but they can be relieved of the responsibilities that come with being the official sovereign and keep the former republics ensnared in the frozen conflicts over territories that they will probably never regain.

[@WS-zd4jz]

"What Does Russia Really Want?" That should be "what does Putin really want". He wants to be Czar of the new soviet.

[@jackburgess8579]

Stop behaving like a child.

[@Carewolf]

@@jackburgess8579 That is what we keep telling Putin, but he does it anyway.

[@EdwardAu]

Divide and rule. As long as South Ossetia is still legally within Georgia, Georgia always needs the co-operation from Russia in order to recover it. If North and South are "reunited", Georgia can distance itself from Russia and embraced the EU and NATO fully

[@maxwalker1159]

Interesting

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks.

[@59Gretsch]

Others made good comments below. I might add, Putin seems very calculating, even restrained up until recently when he felt his hand was forced in Ukraine. He might see the georgia situation as something which might turn into a two-front conflict and with so little to gain, why risk it. As it is, Syria and the US presence there might be that 2nd front.

[@tiitsaul9036]

Russia is not very interested in resolving problems. It’s beneficial to Russia to keep problems linger.

[@shappy60]

Perhaps Georgia will descend into "fascism" and Russia has to "step in" to "defend" the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Of course the entirety of Georgia would then have to be "denazified". Who knows at this point

[@emib6599]

That time weapons and intel will come lot quicker than Ukraine.

[@BladeTheWatcher]

It looks pretty simple for me. Putin doesn't want S. Ossetia to become part of Russia because it would be immediately under the same sanctions as Russia. Right now the status quo serves Russia - they own the country without having any responsibility for it. So, they can use it to import and export goods through it, threaten non-Russian oil routes, and so on. So, actually the current situation fits Russia better than just adding an uninteresting new county to Russia, which they would have to supply just like most counties out of Europe. Just like in chess - the threat of an offensive move is worse than the move itself.

[@krob2327]

Agreed. They thought the same about donbass etc but I have no idea what changed

[@TheAllMightyGodofCod]

This is just a completely unfounded supposition but could it be that at this point Russia fears that if a referendum is held in South Ossetia that Georgia will take military action does opening a second front while things are not going great in Ukraine?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Good point. This could certainly be a concern. But I worry that Russia would take extremely heavy-handed measures in response if Georgia tried it.

[@TheAllMightyGodofCod]

@@JamesKerLindsay without a doubt they would. Things are so tense right now I wonder what can happen next.

[@geoexplains3462]

@@JamesKerLindsay yeah. ukraine is struggling against russia and it is 10 times stronger than georgia. russia would just send 10k soldiers and georgia would capitulate instantly.

[@paulstephen3257]

Do one on the union state between belarus and Russia. That should be interesting given the recent statements made by putin and lukashenko about strengthening ties. It looks like lukashenko is being pushed towards war as well.

[@basharalhashimi6187]

If anyone can tell me something about the colleges that teaches (literature, fine arts, languages, medicine, islamic religion), mosques, churches, synagogues, airports, resturants, Hospitals, diamond mines, tv channels, hotels , football stadiums,newspapers and magazines, tv series, theatre, cinema, broadcast, climate, nature, common food, folk music or clothes, native dialects in South osetia or any other country in the world or any information in any field of knowledge or any thing in life I will be very happy and not forget his favor and ask him not to be late because I still wait

[@giorgitavartkiladze4829]

There is one very important remark. There was not such an entity as South Ossetia originaly. Even though the region was partly inhabited by ethnic Ossetians, the dominant population were Georgians (in the Tkhinvali, the regional capital as well). Ossetian people always lived and had a political entity in Northern Caucasus, while they never had it South, as much as this Territory was always into either Georgian Kingdom of Princedom. Many Ossetians, as well as other nationalities lived in Georgian soil for centuries, like Kists for example, but they never claimed territory as theirs beacuase the Russians could not ignite unjust separatism in them. Having said that, It shall be noted that "South Ossetia" is a Russian created term, which untill late 19th century was called Inner Kartli, an oldest Georgian province, which is corraborated by 100% of historical accounts, churches, archeology and ethnography. Also, it was not a South Ossetian uprising in Early 20th century, but a rebellion of Komunist Ossetians, who were instigated by Kremlin.

[@jmpht854]

Poor Ossetia really is between a few rocks and hard places. I imagine in a perfect world they would be independent and united (north and south), but instead they're in a geopolitical quagmire between Russia, Chechnya, and Georgia...

[@joshualifetree5398]

If they want to be independent no-one can change that.

[@gsb5859]

Hi Professor, not sure whether this is the right place to ask; have you read a book called The 40 Days of Musa Dagh? If not, I’d recommend it, I’m sure you’ll enjoy it, it is a slog though.

[@bernd_das_brot6911]

Professor James who is the patron state of Kosovo? Albania or the USA? A combination of western states?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Great question. Kosovo is a strange one. It isn’t like most other de facto states - if we can even call it one. It has considerable international interaction in its own right. But effectively it is the United States and many EU members, but close ties obviously also exist with Albania.

[@eugenegvozdetsky2673]

@@JamesKerLindsay Who are patrons of Somaliland and Palestine?

[@igorbrille8222]

Did not most of the South-Ossetians get already a Russian passport?

[@jeanpascaud4218]

The President of Georgia is a french female . She is the cousine of Hélène Carrère d'Encausse.The first female "Secrétaire général de l'Académie française" since Mazarin who created this institution.

[@jeanpascaud4218]

The President of Georgia was a french diplomat at the beginning of her professional career. The french government gave her a special autorisation for becoming President of a foreign state : the Georgia.

[@mohamedkhaireh9356]

Professor James Ker-Lindsay, another factor you have not considered is that the current Georgian government is not hostile to Russia. In fact the current Georgian government has refused to sanction Russia, citing its economic links with Russia i.e. tourism and market for Georgian products such as wine, etc. The most influential and richest oligarch in Georgia is a Russian national. The new Georgian government is prosecuting Mikhail Saakashvili who was president of Georgia in during the 5 day war with Russia in August 2008 and former governor of Odessa in 2015/16. Annexing South Ossetia would have undermined Russia's man in Georgia and the current Russian friendly government in Tbilisi. And that is not in Russia's national interests.

[@guramq2149]

You are speaking the truth, im Georgian myself and our country is allready semi controlled by Russia. Not officially but behind the curtains.

[@GiorgiKvinikhidze]

May god bless you brother

[@Edo9River]

It seems to me that by keeping South Ossetia inside Georgia it adds a destabilizing factor to Georgia society,. Similar to the Russian population in Latvia.

[@parsman9914]

Although the region is internationally known as South Ossetia, its true name is Samachablo.

[@doctorgamerstron6674]

Can you do an update on Nigeria, Islamist attacked And Released commanders from a jail in the capital city even tho a military barrack is 45minutes away. The attack lasted over 2hrs with no effort to stop them

[@reanimationeas342]

It would be interesting if Georgia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia just so it would end the conflict and join NATO

[@arch5701]

That would mean that Russia would invade some other region now. Besides, we will never recognize territories that were ethnically cleansed from Georgians. We have up to 350k IDPs from that area. There would be the bloodiest revolution ever. Also Russia doesn't even want that. They hold these fake states just to keep us out of NATO.

[@reanimationeas342]

@@arch5701 That would be a mess in it's own right.

[@SEATTLE4KWalking]

Support from USA Walking Tour! Like See More Videos Soon!

[@vatnik7979]

Put some lipstick sunshine 😂

[@jebise1126]

3:08 that really looks more than 5,5% but... guess im just bad at estimating. also 50000 people only wow... so little

[@MWENDA-vv5im]

The vote will takes place after the conflict in Ukraine ends or stops being too involving for Russia. Those who think that Russia annexing South Ossetia will allow Georgia to join NATO are so wrong. For one, Georgia will have to recognize South Ossetia's sovereignty and that will never happen. Same goes for Abkhazia. Russia annexing South Ossetia changes nothing. BTW, Abkhazia has already made it clear that it has no interest whatsoever to join the Russian Federation.

[@rais1953]

The most prominent and complex relationship between a defacto state and its patron and the one with the most risk of international trouble is that between Taiwan under the unrecognised Republic of China administration and the United States. Not a generation ago the authorities in Taipei and in Beijing were each claiming to be the sole legitimate government of all of China and the Taipei based authorities represented China in the UN and its Security Council. Then the world recognised the winner of China's civil war and the Taipei authority lost its de jure status. In view of the seeming inevitability of Taiwan's return to full Chinese sovereignty it would be interesting to have the Professor's thoughts on the best solution to the issue. For what it's worth, my suggestion for a first step could be the formal approval by China of the present Taipei authorities to govern a fully autonomous but not sovereign special territory which recognised the suzerainty of the Beijing government. Taiwan could then rejoin various international organisations as a sub-delegation of the Chinese delegation. Informal international relations would remain through the existing "Taipei Trade and Cultural Liaison Offices." This would require the Republic of China to come to an end without ending self government in Taiwan. Such a solution could only work if Beijing decided not to base any mainland forces on the island.

[@CyberRabid.]

Russia uses South Ossetia the same way the West uses the Kurds. Instability in the region benefits Russia.

[@pghislain]

Armenia - Georgia - Russia against Turkey - Azerbaijan. I think this element is missing in the presentation. Russia would prefer to deal with Goergia in order to reenforce the support of Armenia.

[@paulstephen3257]

in terms of routes right not alliances, because georgia is much closer to turkey and azerbaijan in terms of diplomacy.

[@gigachaduneli1121]

Georgia us much closer to azarbaijan and turkey

[@guramq2149]

Armenia aganst Russia no. They have military cooperation haha..

[@mattpryber5799]

I think the main thing is Russian is trying to reexpand their global influence . Which i dont know technically it would expand if they straight up annexed these territories.