Sports Betting Explained: How to Make an NFL Model and Beat Vegas

[@abomb1125]

Fantastic video. UI might take some getting used to, but this is an exciting tool to not only learn analytics but also to play around and understand your risk tolerances before even hitting close. Great work guys

[@BTBanalytics]

happy to try and make it more user friendly, any specific feedback?

[@CLP523-v7q]

Thank you for doing this

[@BTBanalytics]

happy to help! hope this lead you to making good bets and wins some $$$

[@kevinsoliz9041]

This was great stuff!

[@BTBanalytics]

hope this helps!

[@sethwilliamanderson8124]

this is so helpful! make one for college, please?!

[@josecarrillo8754]

Nonway you already watched the entire video. It's been out for 11 mins

[@sethwilliamanderson8124]

I made it hahaha I watched it three times before it was up!

[@ekctro]

@@sethwilliamanderson8124forgot to log into the burner

[@BTBanalytics]

No shame in my game hahaha

[@WorkingFromHomeToday452]

"Injury to Russel Wilson, uncertainty at QB" aged EXTREMELY well!

[@scubaseball12]

Great vid. Could you explain how to price totals too?

[@BTBanalytics]

same idea you need some version of a power rating but for totals aka total points scored per game. if you want to price stuff you will need to start using more involved methods. try and master one thing first.

[@michaelaparicio523]

where does the btb analytics get their numbers from, which collum does it take it from ???

[@BTBanalytics]

@@michaelaparicio523 we use a more robust model with additional variables, this was a relatively simple example on how to create a model and is not the same model we use for NFL.

[@Conor-cj8rh]

You said the circa sports Nevada app should work for lines right. Also how could I see a college version of this. Great video btw🔥

[@BTBanalytics]

it's a workaround if you don't use an oddscreen. can get in the lab for a college version. appreciate the support!

[@ekctro]

goat

[@BTBanalytics]

Thanks for watching, I hope this helps!

[@morganlindsey6713]

can i ask where you came up with or which site you got the value framework stuff?? i like to use kelly criterion so it helps to know the percentages for bet sizing and i was curious is there a site you can scrape this information and do they have this data for other sports like college football?? thanks man love the videos you got a sub!!

[@BTBanalytics]

yeah it linked in the document, nflelo.com

[@rowdawg2187]

Thanks for this video! How are you getting the spread value for BTB? Is that something that is publicly available like it is for the other 3 models?

[@BTBanalytics]

Thanks for the question. Are you talking about columns M and N at the 19:58 mark? If so, those the values we produce using our model. That's part of our paid subscription to get access to those numbers. If you're interested we have discount codes and a sign up link in the video description. Let me know if that answers your question or if I missed it.

[@rowdawg2187]

@@BTBanalytics I was referring to column B in the power rating 1 tab. Are those numbers publicly available?

[@BTBanalytics]

no but we will do our best to update them for you each week, if not we can just remove these columns for the other PR

[@MrCoreyTexas]

Want to watch this video, but from everything I know, NFL point spreads are basically the hardest thing to actually beat! I think College Football is easier to beat in this regard because with so many teams it's harder for the books to set accurate lines. Just think the books are hiring many traders to set the NFL lines. Best of luck though!

[@BTBanalytics]

@@MrCoreyTexas NFL is definitely the hardest to beat at close. At open, it’s still a different story but generally agree that CFB has more opportunity due to volume, among other things

[@MrCoreyTexas]

I don't see how people are betting week 1 4 months in advance, sometimes things like who the starting quarterback will be isn't confirmed until a few weeks before the game starts! They are probably very rich and very bold!

[@BTBanalytics]

@@MrCoreyTexas you can profit off uncertainty. Nothing is a guarantee of course but the opportunities are there, just need to know where to look

[@darkside907]

Sometimes people are just taking shots too