SPORTS CARD MARKET CRASH - QUANTIFIED! IT'S BAD

[@LetsStormTheTeaCupRide]

I knew that the market was down because there were a good dozen guys (like yourself) who did videos that were like "I bought this card for $30, got it graded and got $125 for it!" and those guys have stopped making those videos or disappeared for good. Too much product, too much grading, too many people trying to make money (and losing), inflation are a few reasons just to name a few reasons.

[@TylerShort]

Oddly enough this is still my best year but to say that things haven't gotten more competitive is an understatement. And at this point, it was fun doing this in 2018 when nobody cared about cards. Now that everybody and their mother is trying to grade, I'm giving away a lot of valuable information for essentially free by posting mail days, what I buy/grade, etc. The opportunities have dwindled as the market has crashed but they are still out there.

[@jessmansportscards]

Respect! Kudos. ​@@TylerShort

[@PIP-zf9yb]

​@TylerShort I don't view it as a crash because the market has just returned to where it was. The difference is cost of wax and grading has not gone back down to where it was 5 plus years ago. Still all about what you pay for something and what it's worth to someone else. I've had one if my best years ever.

[@user-vi5vd3ty9d]

@@PIP-zf9yb😂😂😂, it’s a crash. the market had a melt up followed by a crash back down.

[@beng4647]

I think it was all inflation and people just don't understand inflation.

[@mrbojangles25]

The Brady spike is because of his autos in Bowman Draft. Would love to see if there's a way to analyze volume of sales instead of price. Feels like the market has been pretty steady in that regard.

[@Greg-wm4on]

I hope we are in Junk Wax era 2.0. Because if we are in junk wax era 2.0 that means a ton of people will drop out of the sports card market. Also, what is up with Panini being such an awful company?

[@TylerShort]

Poopini really does suck lol. I hate this era of collecting with them at the helm

[@BrentonPercy]

Looking at the average sale price might be a bit misleading. It's possible in the current market high end cards just aren't selling, and more people are buying his lower end cards and/or people who couldn't afford his lower end cards are now able to buy them.

[@michaeldenzer6024]

Always like watching hearing your videos! Do 1 on your profits/losses for the year 2023! Merry Christmas Bro!

[@camjonron]

fascinating watch, looking forward to digging into this ebay research tool! thanks

[@annony1annony191]

Great research and analysis Tyler, I mentioned this video on SCR last night.

[@TylerShort]

Heck yeah man, greatly appreciated! Would love to do a market talk with them at some point. That would be fun

[@redheadcards437]

nicely done. does this pick up only ebay sales or any other public auction sites?

[@davebrown386]

Glad you are back!! I wish you would of compared five years and I think you would see a 30 percent total gain?

[@TylerShort]

Hey Dave, I think if we looked back 5 years we would certainly be up overall in aggregate for sure. I'm not sure if Terapeak has that far of a lookback but it's an interesting thought experiment to look at

[@counterproof]

Are these numbers based on graded cards or a mix of raw and graded sales?

[@TylerShort]

It's a view of all sales including graded and non graded

[@ugghhhyoutubeisawful646]

it s dumb..includes helmets jerseys bobbleheads and running shoes too...haha

[@speedy-jay]

i think the videos pretty spot on although i have sold $600 worth of brock purdy today.

[@LambeauLeeeper]

Good move cause he stunk it up tonight. Bad game of course but it happens.

[@kumududesocialskillsbooks3125]

Solid overview! Again, buy what you like & keep what you want!

[@mistysowards7365]

This is the future for the market when sports cards are allowing monopolization of each sport. Panini has killed football and i know football. If you asked every single collector who is older than 24 then they'll all say their burnt out on the same company printing the same bs every yr. Panini has absolutely no reason to do better or produce better stuff for the outrageous price they charge per box. Without competition its dead.

[@sfcraiger]

Perhaps just ebay sales has been down? People are tried of the unnecessary fees. What percent of total card sales do you think ebay represents?

[@RandomEsports1]

pwcc has been down too. considerably.

[@tombullard6167]

Happy Holidays Fellow Cardboard Sellers, Hoarders, Collectors, Enthusiasts, & Coneseurs! I just started selling this past June solely bought & sold on eBay with no grading myself... Just this month trying to make a fulltime go bc I'm doing well enough to try. My biggest lessons is turn & burn & if holding a star 4 specific even make sure you hit that timing correctly or it may be another year before you get the same opportunity if not forced to take losses. My biggest losses have been purchases back in 2020-21 when I first re-entered the sports side of it all but beyond that really haven't taken too many losses outside the major scandals ie Wander, Giddy... Always appreciate your data & reviews/insights. Its a lot of time & work but is it really work if I enjoy it & would do it anyways? Thanks for your time & the content. Much Love, Stay Safe, & Enjoy Cards!!

[@TylerShort]

Happy holidays Tom! Good to hear from you again! That is awesome that your making a full time go at it? How has the past 6 months been gone? I'd say my best part of the year was Jan-May. Major dropoff around National time frame and then I kinda just checked out the last 6 months and literally focused about all of my time on work/working out 10-12x a week, and hanging with friends. So I literally couldn't squeeze in cards

[@tombullard6167]

@@TylerShort totally understandable bc need your health before wealth imo. As solely BIN in $10-$200 range it's been good. I've doubled up sales from october to November to december being my best yet but I'm sure there's many contributing factors to it like selling all sports & most non-sports & going from only doing it part-time to making real effort putting in 8-10-12hrs a day bc I enjoy it. One of the noticeable tangible areas I changed on eBay that I believe has resulted in the double up past couple months is changing my promoted listing from fixed rate at 2% to the variable rate allowing eBay to choose it daily. I believe it's helping get my listings in front of more eyeballs since opposed averaging 15% in fees & I'm now losing between 30-40%!! Its painful to give eBay such a large % but it really seems to be pay to play since promoted listings have become so important for anything outside the new hottest thing. I'm okay at this time eating the % since i prioritized & focused on # of sales to stay in eBay algorithm. The other thing I can say that's helped is accepting loses as am education in the business since I was one of those idiots too unfocused & careless to research past prices b4 buying PSA 9 Metal Universe Allen Iverson RC at $96 & a PSA 9 Fleer #401 Shaq rookie at $78 which when I initially started I priced to break even & wouldn't entertain any offers to now pricing at current market accepting offers even if its meant only selling the 2 of em combined for $50 minus 40% so I ended up with like $20 after all was said & done taking a $150 loss on 2 PSA9 90s base rookies... I fell for the nostalgia & FOMO but needed to learn & atleast it wasn't worst. So its been super important to become happy to just take what I can get to move on taking the loss to put it into something else I know better of. I did have a pretty nice nongrading 30× on $13 raw auction win thanks to seller mistitling as a Red Prizm /399 opposed to what it was which was a Maroon Prizm /22 Jude Bellingham (not even his rookie!). I feel like it was a bit detrimental to my learning curve though since it gave me unrealistic expectations thinking I could do that regularly so my store did stall out & cap out around only 15 sales from June thru September... I took October accepting the realities above then was fired from a job I loathed & i believe is immoral & unethical in debt collections which was a blessing & sign to shoot my shot. Thanks again for all the info & stats this gives a great perspective. Also I'm hoping december isn't an anomaly but more so a sign of things to come since it does seem like a bump in sales & prices when I've been told by many sellers that december is usually their worst/slowest month each year.

[@JohnnyDunn]

Buy low, sell high🚀 great time rn imo

[@thebaseballcardguy_38]

100%

[@cardviper]

I would say it's leveling off back to realistic numbers vs crashing

[@TylerShort]

It absolutely is. Year over year, leveled off, just because of more QTY, dollars are dilluted.

[@cgbach]

Love the small jabs you take at some of the players 😆

[@minxxqz]

Co really appreciate the info about the card market More power to your channel

[@TylerShort]

Thank you sir, greatly appreciate it!

[@prospectsrus282]

worth noting that the video maker still has hundreds of cards at psa, sent recently according to his posts. even though he makes fun of psa and the market. he just loves cards and will never leave, will always spend, and find ways to make money like smart people can do no matter what the economy looks like

[@TylerShort]

Not wrong on all accounts haha

[@theburrisbunch6649]

Glad to see you back on here. Always enjoyed your grading videos. I remember you grading a lot of Mac jones sure you sold them all. People paid crazy for that donruss rc psa 10s

[@TylerShort]

It was wild just what people were paying for those back in 2021. That' the power of flipping baby! Every has investor has hope that their guy will pan out, so flip it on down the line to em'

[@robertcremeens3166]

Do you think any of this is due to the economy? Or just mainly due to changing preferences regarding the drop in sales from 2021 to 2023? People just taking more vacations & like post pandemic versus spending money on card hobby?

[@sp123]

The dumb money spending a lot on non rookies and undesirable sets have left the market. People are only spending money on rarer and high end cards

[@robertcremeens3166]

Makes sense.

[@eloydelagarza]

GREAT video! I agree about no need to pay for data. That said I subscribe to Market Movers just to support all the content they put out. I rarely use it and use eBay completed sales most. Again, I just believe in trying to support content providers.

[@TickBallsOut]

A. People dont buy big men, that's why Joker's market is much smaller than Doncic. Plus lets be real, he has two mvps, and one ring. That's not even top center status let alone top players status. Giannis is much more likable than Joker, much more outgoing personality. Same accolades B. I love this market right now, perfect time to buy what you want IMO

[@robertcremeens3166]

BTW Very Good informative vid on cards!

[@thecenterfielder7]

What do you think about the Albert pujols Market?

[@TylerShort]

I think his market is probably beginning to enter that slow and steady territory. Not highly speculated. Maybe some ebs and flows as he gets close to the HOF announcement with a slight uptick in speculation, but I think that the overall market is going to age like a fine wine

[@lapp3r30shockeycardflips]

Great video! I may steal the idea for hockey specifically. Cheers!

[@TylerShort]

Absolutley, run with i! Expanded the list to 140 players and it's still hard to find hockey players to crack that top 140

[@schmoe5070]

Oddly enough I started collecting cards after the boom in 2021 and the sector I collect in numbered 90s basketball has actually gonna up since the boom and was cheaper during the hype lol 😅

[@TylerShort]

I actually believe that!

[@officialghetty]

Same , All the modern investors got burned and figured out the 90s stuff actually holds value so they started buying 90s inserts instead of pink disco tiger stripe courtside rookies

[@cacsports]

Interesting look at the market. I generally focus on card by card analysis. Glad to see you snuck a hockey player in there. I mainly focus on hockey and over the past year or so you can see the ultra modern cards slowly bleeding. High quality vintage is still competitive. I have been telling folks NOT to buy Connor Bedard cards because this year's supply is going to be stupid and everyone will still try to grade the same cards

[@TylerShort]

Funny you say that because I was just browsing this morning trying to snag what little cards have been put out and completely agree with the assessment. UD is cranking the presses to milk every penny they can on people chasing Connor cards

[@cacsports]

@@TylerShort the presses are running right now

[@RandomJ2023]

The Junk Parallel/ exclusive era has indeed arrived.

[@TylerShort]

And it appears it’s not going away.

[@RandomEsports1]

until people stop buying. which is coming in the next 2-3 years@@TylerShort

[@LambeauLeeeper]

I just sold a Shohei Ohtani Gold Mega Box Refractor PSA 10 for 162$ on EBay it’s bad . I just ate it.

[@TylerShort]

Dude, I paid $150 raw for one a few months ago and it's sitting at PSA. Best case scenario is a 10 and I eat the grading costs and fees. It's scary out there. Way way way way way too much product getting pumped out and all the dollars are getting diluted across them as subsequent releases get pumped out.

[@jackhr]

Auctions are so dangerous these days as a seller. I get creamed about half the time. Try to avoid but sometimes just need to raise cash or get what I can fie dying inventory.

[@FDLrick]

There's a big difference between vintage and the new card market. There's 2 markets, not just one. What's happening in the vintage market seems to be avoided by you new market dudes. So sad.

[@cryptonite8495]

And vice versa. Fortunately. The ultra-modern crash dragged down everything, but vintage not as far, generally speaking. (I'm not counting the 1980s and '90s as vintage.)

[@jessmansportscards]

Thanks for sharing!

[@duanetomka6559]

Merry Christmas Tyler! Last week I was just wondering to myself...where has he been? :) Hope things are well and you put some more content out in 2024!

[@TylerShort]

Merry Christmas Duane. I know it's been a while since I've made some content but still buying and selling haha

[@Scooter23456]

This was fantastic! With the info and if you’re still buying, do you buy the guys that have tanked really bad like Luka, or do you buy the stable guys? It’s really interesting.

[@GSG9Kazmir]

I am personally buying rare rookie cards and desirable rookie cards of players I think in 5 years could win a championship, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic are ones I love. Maybe some cheap Cade Cunningham. No point in buying non rookie autos or non rookie year cards unless they are high end low number stuff.

[@TylerShort]

Yup I'm still buying. This year was actually a more profitable year than 2021 and 2022, despite spending about 50% less money with PSA and buying 50% less. I really focused in on less speculative buying. Still some losers but overall I'm happy with where 2023 ended. The first half was incredible, and Ohtani really carried me all year and the data shows he was in demand. People will flip out over momentary ups and downs but ultimately I think if you park cash in players who are in demand as this data shows, you'll generally be okay. There's some exceptions of course but that's been the strategy. Less base stuff, more stable items, less reckless spending with PSA as it's just not warranted.

[@michaeldenzer6024]

Hes fat! Lol....haha....like to eat and game all day!!!

[@fatmirsejdini5992]

No cj stroud or purdy

[@thelasvegaskid]

Once football season ends, I may look to get a Brady RC.

[@TylerShort]

His stuff is definitely on the cool side. At least not "speculated," depending on the rookie you are looking to get into

[@thelasvegaskid]

@@TylerShort I’m gonna look for something numbered.

[@jrgeb99]

Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Cade Cunningham, jalen Green, Justin Herbert…..that’s a list that has to be as massive decline

[@TylerShort]

It absolutely is

[@RandomEsports1]

you are right, feb 2021 was the peak. and now pokemon cards are dropping fast (after the 1 mil card from that former football player)

[@GSG9Kazmir]

The sports card market isn't down. The market has crashed. People are less willing to spend money on cards since cash flow is hard right now.

[@TylerShort]

Oddly enough, there are a few other search terms that I'm looking at that are showing the overall sports card market in terms of $$$ flowing in is still really high, but it seems as though it's getting diluted across all the crap Topps and Panini are pumping out. Lots of money flowing to breaks/wax/grading which is sucking money away from the singles market

[@GSG9Kazmir]

@@TylerShort i completely agree the people with disposable income are buying high end cards like NTs, flawless, Jordan, Lebron, Kobe Autos at great prices. They are buying only the good stuff. And as far as it pertains to current modern players they are only spending money on their absolute best cards. I am personally staying away from mid end and low end, I am buying higher end cards that have real potential in the future. Having a psa 10 luka non rookie auto wont mean much due to the amount of product that the companies will pump in the future. I believe rookie cards and autos are the collectables that have real potential down the line.

[@pedrocirino5695]

brock purdy is one of very few NFL players people will continue to make money on even after the season is over.. regardless of the outcome in the NFC finals, he has cemented himself as a realiable QB with good tools around him and will mostly likely have a good/great carrer when it´s all said and done.

[@TylerShort]

He has, even if he wins or loses, I think he's got a fan base and along with Stroud, will have lots of hype going into August

[@davebrown386]

Are you Blue Streak on discord?

[@TylerShort]

I am not although that's basically my username on Blowout and XBL haha

[@tdsportscards]

Interesting

[@michaeldenzer6024]

Im only on ebay

[@fbcardfan4161]

You've been in the hobby 25 years but don't understand why people buy the shiny new rookie vs the stable veteran? All that money moved from those 30 players moved towards those new rookies. Your analysis is akin to looking at Twitter and Zoom and declaring the stock market is crashing. You don't take into account the number of cards being sold vs which cards were being sold and those players who were rookies over the last 3 years or jumped into relevance that people speculated on not to mention those that jumped when being inducted into their HOF.

[@TylerShort]

Actually I mention that...repeatedly. But nice subtle jab?

[@fbcardfan4161]

@@TylerShort Did you also notice that eBay Terapeak doesn't separate by year when you jump from 3yr to 2yr to 1yr? Just looking at Trout sold you have a 3yr total of 1,567,718 if you look at last year only that is 628,558. Remove 2yr from 3yr and you get the total for the 3rd year only (2021) which is 432,303 and subtract both from the 2yr total and you get the 2nd years (2022) total which is 506,857. So, Trout's market hasn't collapsed and instead has increased over 20% year over year. You can confirm this by using the custom button instead of the last 3/2/last year.

[@JChriStiaN648]

Like your videos, but your data contradicts your assessment of not needing a market tool. Could’ve gotten all of that data on card ladder in 2 minutes. Plus you get the actual sales prices.

[@TylerShort]

My statement was that you don't need to pay for a market tool. Paying for card sales data is unnecessary

[@JChriStiaN648]

@@TylerShort I know, I see your point, but then you immediately went into data that included more than just cards. Card ladder can be a very useful tool, especially for newer, or uninformed hobbyists. People need to be more informed than they are, and I know that’s true because of list prices on eBay 😂

[@Showcardsusa]

👍👍👍

[@joelkaplan2157]

Happy holidays

[@TylerShort]

Happy holidays Joel. Good to here from yah. Hope you had a good one

[@jrsportscardschronicles3587]

Wow this is bad! Next year it's going to be really bad, could be a bottom, but bottom might not be in until 2025-26 when everyone is out basically. True collectors will stick around. Might be able to pickup a Lebron James Exquisite RPA finally for a thousand bucks! 🤣🤣🤣

[@michaeldenzer6024]

Beddard!

[@David-fv7zg]

I like what you have done here, however.....This analysis is severely skewed. You are basing your "crash" on the most super inflated market in decades over COVID. I would like to see you compare this to pre COVID numbers, that would be more relevant. Anyone that was buying high over the last 3-5 years, will really feel this moving forward. Bottom line is, this is a time to buy....not sell.

[@michaeldenzer6024]

Jokic is boring...

[@TylerShort]

But he’s winning. Unfortunately he doesn’t fit into “American culture” today. Maybe more strip club trips or guns on his IG will make him relatable to today youth

[@ugghhhyoutubeisawful646]

lol...this might be the dumbest thing ive seen in the internet this month - and the bar is low. #worstanalysisever

[@Cardcollector45643]

Why? This guy knows what he's doing and is among the best at it, so anything he says atleast with regards to cards is worth listening to.

[@matthewking4098]

Because he's making a video analysing the sports card market using data that doesn't pertain to sports cards! Pretty ridiculous actually.