Sports Modeling Excel Logistic Regression

[@annadad2023]

Would you create a model that predicts wins or losses in the NHL using Logistic regression? I would love to see it.

[@wageredontilt1649]

I would be able to do a basic one, however it would be more conceptual to get you started on ideas.

[@speedzillaa]

hi, im building a model just like this, to calculate the winning chances of Team A vs Team B, the optimal way of doing it is scrapping each player of each team individually?

[@wageredontilt1649]

It can be. It really depends upon what stats you think will have an impact on the outcome. if the way Player A plays impacts Player B. Then you would want to use player level stats. If you think team level stats are reliable to still calculate probability of winning, then you can stick with team level and other stats. Some sports, team level can be used, in others player level and play by play would be needed.

[@lasqueti6426]

Dam man good stuff I mainly learned ill never be smart enough to beat the books.

[@wageredontilt1649]

Well, you can if you can attack weaker points. Don’t go after main lines like sides and totals. Try out player props, 1H or periods. Many books have too much surface area to cover all it well

[@-Tharos-]

Very useful, thanks. I'm mostly interested in soccer but unfortunately Logistic Regression works with binary outcome only, as you explained. There are other variants of LR (multinomial LR) to deal with more than two possible outcomes (e.g. win/tie/lose) but I've never seen it done in excel. Cheers

[@wageredontilt1649]

Correct, for for Multi you can look at using Ridge. For logistical, this can be used as will player X make a goal. And then use that into another model to see scores. Just depends on what angle you want to attack the solve.

[@ianharkins2172]

Great video as always. Very informative.

[@wageredontilt1649]

Hopefully it helps with your predictions!

[@MicroOdds]

Will this work on google sheets?

[@wageredontilt1649]

Yes, this will work in google sheet, you would need to just install a solver. If you are in your google sheet, you would be able to get a plug in like Open Solver.

[@seanfdaly4]

haha. Why does my data analysis go in reverse? Better states = lower probability?

[@wageredontilt1649]

It would depend upon what you set your pass fail probability too, as well what you mean better stats = lower probability. Do you have an example of data you see that happening with?

[@seanfdaly4]

When I add the IF statement, it gives me a #REF error for the 0 and does just fine for the 1...help

[@wageredontilt1649]

Is the IF for the p()? If so, it sounds like there is a reference key mistaken. Can you copy and paste the formula you have into a comment? I can take a look from there.