StarTalk Podcast: What Are the Odds?

What are the odds that a last-second Hail Mary pass will work? How can machine learning and artificial intelligence help us decide to go for it? On this episode of StarTalk Sports Edition, Neil deGrasse Tyson and co-hosts Gary O’Reilly and Chuck Nice investigate with mathematician and author Matt Ginsberg.
We investigate how superstition can manifest itself in sports when people can’t control the outcome. Matt tells us how he assists sports programs by using data to help predict certain scenarios and patterns. You’ll learn why machine learning is “statistics on steroids.”
Find out why Matt says you can’t predict anything with 100% certainty. We explore “asset management” in sports and using data to find surprises. We ask, “If you can find everything you need with numbers why do we still need coaches?” Matt tells us about his work with the Oregon Ducks volleyball program and how the NCAA intervened.
Matt explains why you should always go for it on 4th and 1. Matt shares his experiences dealing with coaches and their “not-invented-here” syndrome. Discover more about using naturally-occurring data vs. using synthetic data. Matt also tells us about the football play he invented - the passing/optional self-safety. All that, plus, you’ll hear why every underdog in football should go for two every time.
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About StarTalk:
Science meets pop culture on StarTalk! Astrophysicist & Hayden Planetarium director Neil deGrasse Tyson, his comic co-hosts, guest celebrities & scientists discuss astronomy, physics, and everything else about life in the universe. Keep Looking Up!
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[@DaBlondDude]

I definitely want to see this guy back again. He's brilliant, admits to his limits and his sense of humour is awesome.

[@mlginsberg]

I've very flattered. Thank you!

[@osiris1102]

@@mlginsberg hey matt just loved your wits and the way you explain stuff. I really hope you'll do more shows with Neil and more shows in general. As a ML student I really learned so much from your insights.

[@erikhendrickson59]

If only more people were comfortable saying "I don't know."

[@terryhalsteadgamer]

Chuck is the beez kneez. None academics who wanna learn as much as we can in these areas need Chuck. He is the glue, he keeps the rest of us and so the amateurs interested. He's the man we love you Chuck.

[@stephanienirenberg7426]

I adore this show more than you know Neil and Chuck. You two make my day so much brighter. Thank you both so much.

[@jeffs6090]

What are the odds that I got the Tide commercial that Chuck is in right before this video?

[@guitare101]

The algorithm 🤷🏼‍♂️😋

[@krshna77]

What are the odds that i don't have to watch any commercial B)

[@uygarmat585]

What are the odds that i get the masterclass ad with Neil everytime before watching StarTalk?

[@Quancheese]

Fascinating. Brilliant conversation and guest. Would have been nice to have more “street cred” & input from Gary but he could barely get a word in w/o getting cut off. More insight or questions from a pro athlete in a convo about odds in sports would have made amazing discourse even better.

[@jett3197]

The only time I'll ever care about sports is when Neil talks about them

[@MisterSynonym]

Quick shout-out to the person who edits these videos. This channel is amazing and your contribution is appreciated.

[@lghammer778]

Math & Matt are so cool! Really neat stuff you guys & that new intro animation artwork amazes me each time, it's so well done 😃

[@Armageddon017]

I'm so sorry Gary got interrupted so many times. Seems like a pretty smart dude with very interesting things to say...

[@Nitephall]

Yeah they pretty much ignored him.

[@plant.more.trees.]

Sounds like the buzzing bracelet on the volleyball would be a great training tool if you could train the players to recognize the ball movement

[@azuma0294]

That's a great idea. That mathematician should patent that technology and possibly market that to volleyball teams.

[@scoobertmcruppert2915]

@@azuma0294 Probably be tough, since it seems the NCAA doesn’t like him much and they’d probably find a bar it from official team use.

[@aprameyak8578]

Imagine having him as your physics teacher in high school

[@derrickstorm6976]

Lol high school? Try college, there you actually have the potential to learn something useful

[@msmith53]

For teacher wages? Surely you jest!

[@crontemisto8994]

I'm imagining. "Mr. Degrasse-Tyson, I watched a KZbin video on dark matter last night and --" NDT: "Excuse me. EXCUSE me!! You're going to come to me with a KZbin video as your source? No. Just no. Ok? What you MEANT to say was..."

[@aprameyak8578]

@@crontemisto8994 thanks for your opinion but no one cares

[@Jmvars]

@@aprameyak8578 Actually, I do. I also agree.

[@shatonamedia1738]

1st time ever checking this out & I love the energy of the show!

[@khairulbasirrudin732]

Same here! I'm hooked!

[@rolando2392]

33:15 "that's alot of ball handling" 7 year old Neil trying not to laugh when he realized what he just said😅😅

[@tylerscudder9358]

I lol'd when he said that

[@calebjaymes9710]

Lol

[@CypherV0]

Man, I love Star Talk but by the end of it I feel like Gary was thinking “why am I even here?” Lol.

[@holyhex6520]

Yeah, I felt bad for the guy.

[@wyzxyw]

this interview looks like nerds finally got revenge on that sports guy for not letting him express a single full sentence :D

[@theduder2617]

I personally LOVE it if and when I am corrected by someone more educated than myself. ESPECIALLY when it makes me realize my true place in the discussion.

[@jermainemoss7809]

Neil and crew with another great episode. Thanks guys

[@milktaster84]

Hello Neil, how's your day going?

[@ShikharMasseyMusic]

Thanks for bringing chuck nice. Always big fan both of you...

[@Pragma020]

I don't care for sports but I harbored much interest for this star talk and its perfect relation to sports.

[@parsanajafzadeh9260]

Quite unrelated, but something that I decided to give a go at (or, more like, my nerdy brain made me give a go at) is to try and find just how long it would take for a human to reach the speed of light while surviving the acceleration. So I looked up some of the stuff that I didn't know. First, I looked up how many G's a human can survive, and found that 9 G's is the maximum that humans can take without dying, but this applied only for a few seconds and I guessed that reaching light-speed will take just a little bit longer than that, so I went for 7 G's instead. Next, I converted G's to KM/h/h and found that 7 G's is equal to 889659.29. It was just a question of calculating correctly after that. The speed of light is 108000000000 KM/h and so I divided that by 889659.29 and got 121394.787. So this was the number of hours that it would take to reach light-speed safely. Next i divided by 24, and got 5058 (the number of days). And finally, I divided by 365, giving me the time in years which is approximately 14 years. I was too lazy to try and prove that this number is correct but I would just like to know whether I got all the numbering right and that I didn't miss anything in my calculation. I would really appreciate if someone (anyone) could confirm or correct this. Thanks. :)

[@Micloren]

Gary O’Reilly didn't get a word in...

[@acemanNL]

He was there for his background... 😀

[@cwflad]

I felt so bad for him too because he kept trying to jump in but Neil was just elbowing him out every time.

[@melanezoe]

Chuck Nice is the perfect foil for Neil’s pointed scientific material. Love the combo.

[@thabanithwala5026]

Ey i think chuck is the one that makes me watch these podcasts, he makes it easy to absorb all the science

[@plant.more.trees.]

Thanks for the program team!

[@eatdrinkgeek3110]

Never tell me the odds! (someone had to say it...)

[@SavageDarknessGames]

Even when they’re 2:1?

[@petermartin7811]

Han?

[@SavageDarknessGames]

@@petermartin7811 han solo but i didnt send that one odd

[@ThomasJHorrego]

one of the best episodes.

[@babasemka]

Imagine Neil not interrupting anyone 😂

[@krshna77]

must be his way of expressing host authority

[@babasemka]

@@krshna77 Even as a guest, he is interrupting people constantly.

[@humanpudding8643]

Image one of these videos where someine DOESN'T leave this as a comment!!! (You're not telling us anything new! Yet, he still is greats at what he does!-we keep coming back for more! =P )

[@babasemka]

@@humanpudding8643 imagine thinking you can hurt my feelings with your rambling, mr. Nobody from the Internet😂

[@marcuskiller02]

@@babasemka I don’t think that’s what he was aiming at, he probably meant to tell you stop doing that, it’s getting old (he said it to you but he might as well have spoken to no one in particular/anyone saying that) (Just being the Devil’s advocate, don’t @ me 😆)

[@drottningu]

You guys are the best!!! Cheers Matt!

[@madcatattack1]

Great watch! Lots of concepts which are applicable to my game (poker) as well. "Because the way you’re going to win this game is by getting a little bit lucky, and you want to give the gods of luck as much chance as possible to help you. You want to increase what’s called the standard deviation in the score. You can’t move the average, but you can make it noisier.” - Matt Ginsberg “You want to climb out to the wings of that distribution where you could have actually a chance of winning that game, as the underdog.” Neil deGrasse Tyson

[@hoodhnm]

Glad to watch Chuck Nice as always...

[@captofthesaltyc2482]

As a subscriber, I Love Star Talk and physics, from the quantum level to Astrophysics and beyond, But I was wondering if any one knew of similar videos or channels that went in depth in other fields such as; phycology, philosophy, sociology and such. Thank you for this Channel!

[@epicswirl]

I study AI as an undergraduate it’s very interesting. It can be more philosophical then mathematical at times.

[@rbr1170]

This is moneyball extension! Not a big sports fan but math and sports certainly appeal to me. This is just a great series.

[@TheWifeBeats]

All of the commenters and viewers havent gotten through the full video yet

[@asLeepLessman]

Thanks for sharing this.

[@dazza818]

What are the odds of Neil not interrupting the guests answer to a question he just asked?

[@a.randomjack6661]

Thanks. I already know I won't like listening to this, so I won't :) Neil's Interruptions are too annoying.

[@mihaicolceriu-nicola7148]

99.99999999...% he will interrupt :)))))))))))

[@zorinashineintherain260]

Am i the only one binging Neil's Star Talk and other scientific interviews while Pandemic?

[@giveadam2]

Great topic! I wish they could have talked about hockey. That would have been interesting to hear as well.

[@drb417]

I was listening to another podcast, don't remember which one, that was talking about when you should pull the goalie late in the game. they were saying that it should be done sooner then what is normally done now. would have been interesting to get his take on it.

[@Mr12Relic]

40:19 Another similar Olympics situation was that backflips are banned in ice skating stemming from the technicality that all jumps must land on 1 foot which was thought to be impossible. In 1994, Surya Bonaly knew she wasn't going to win, so she went for it, succeeded and landed on 1 foot to prove it's possible.

[@francisjohnson665]

These two are so funny together. 😂😂👍👍

[@pistolangpaltik]

I love that chuck is here as he represents most of us. I think sometimes he knows but would act clueless.

[@simongonzalez1793]

I think you should make one of these for the odds on the stock market!

[@Cod4Wii]

Have a nice day everyone.

[@packerjack87]

@Paul Robert :(

[@stk1975]

I wish more physicist would have shows like this, comedy and knowledge.

[@balaji-kartha]

had no idea what they were talking about with all that lingo about "football" ! but Matt sure is a great mind

[@anthonygordon9483]

Football. You have chances to gain 4 yds. If you get 4 yards , your chances reset, otherwise you forfeit the ball.

[@felipevaldez5502]

I would like to consider u guys making these videos longer. Like part 1, 2 maybe 3 instead of just cutting the video when TIMES UP!!! Love the show

[@SuperYASSERARAFAT]

the BEST SHOW EVER INVENTED TO THIS POINT IN HISTORY

[@ilarious5729]

I hate sports, my love for star talk really is measured now I guess 🤷‍♂️

[@reinforcedpenisstem]

Me too. Professional sports is pointless.

[@drb417]

@@reinforcedpenisstem if it brings enjoyment to people then it isn't pointless

[@reinforcedpenisstem]

@@drb417 Amateur sports does that just fine.

[@martinda7446]

What are the odds Neil will interrupt his guests >100 times in 50 mins? 😺 1.

[@kmktruthserum9328]

2

[@akidnamedchris]

I’m glad I wasn’t the only one who noticed this

[@crontemisto8994]

@@akidnamedchris It's a pretty infamous trend in his videos.

[@martinda7446]

@@crontemisto8994 He gets so excited he can't help it. I've noticed he has been trying hard not to interrupt recently.. He is a top man so it's hard to be bothered.

[@crontemisto8994]

@@martinda7446 Agreed. I have noticed the same thing.

[@revolutionarylighting]

Great episode!!! Neil, there is one time the laterals did actually work instead of a Hail Mary! The Miami Miracle! Dolphins against the Patriots 2 years ago! Here's the link!

[@Saeryfim]

I don't even watch any sports at all, played a bit of soccer and baseball throughout my school years though. The sports episodes aren't really for me, but it's still super entertaining to learn new things that I can forget later, haha.

[@gtbkts]

Commenting for support.

[@emory442]

I don't remember the details, but I read an article about a chess playing computer that was only given the rules for the game. And it made moves that nobody had ever seen before. And I like that Neil basically brought that up in regards to football

[@kaboom6426]

Do a cricket version for sports edition please !!!!

[@MTKRAILROAD]

Thiisss isss Startalk!

[@milktaster84]

Hello Neil.

[@Magnusfication]

Hey Neil and Chuck! Can you guys do a sports edition on the 100 meter sprint? Or just sprinting in general? That would be very interesting!

[@DistantTower]

What an episode!

[@korny19989]

Can you please talk about how much time is dilated for us right now? With us being affected by the speed of the earth around the sun, sun around the galaxy and galaxy through space.

[@entropie-3622]

The simple answer would be "not at all" because time dilation only makes sense relative to an "observer" or reference frame. But it can be rephrased to solve this: "How much would out time be dilated from the point of view of an observer who is sitting at the center of mass of the universe". This question has the added benefit that it would lead to the idea that the universe does not even have a center of mass and why something like that is possible in a curved space.

[@brynwhitehead1731]

We don’t gamble. And the odds of feds watching after sending a pound of tea with a note attached for the president directly to the white house are pretty strong for. 1.5 acres is more than a pitch.

[@GinaCarmichael-nd2pt]

Promotes a total well being. A twist to the reality he has mastered the window of comedy.

[@wendelldillard3758]

I'm going to try some of these football tips in madden

[@captofthesaltyc2482]

I would love to hear Neil deGrasse Tyson’s input on the popular series, The Expanse. They have a new season airing next week! If he has already discussed this please give a reference to a video to watch where he discusses the series! Btw, I love Neil deGrasse Tyson, I’ve learn so much from his videos and series, and continue to learn! #KeepLearning #KeepTeaching

[@dinotrinh5051]

I used statistics when I coach tennis i.e. I emphasized to the players to get their second serves in to avoid 0%.

[@msmith53]

As a former tennis coach, get the first serve IN! Takes the pressure off the second serve, and they work harder to improve the first serve! Spin is your friend!

[@Jessilavender]

love the show guys!! Please bring on Brian Greene !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ✌🍁

[@OmniphonProductions]

Big fan of the show and its _cast,_ but I have to agree with many of the other commenters. The point of interviewing guests is to ask them questions and then _let them answer,_ ideally giving _all_ guests a sizeable opportunity to contribute.

[@achillespower3095]

that flex at 4:44 was 🔥🔥🔥

[@sherrylennondewitt4102]

Hello my favorite astrophysicist!

[@DJASSI11]

I would like to see their take on Stargate series!

[@jnettr9859]

Lol love this!!! ❤️

[@AstroRoxy]

18:00 min mark, yes they do highlight such things in the anime called haikyuu. Sitting down a player today so that he can perform better tomorrow or if they feel like losing, they have a decision to make and they show that process!

[@mccauleymccranie3752]

Literally should be called startalk with ndt and chuck nice

[@Jay-om8gr]

21:39 - 21:43 faucci and others need to hear this for covid

[@gfsblackout]

I think sports should have a series like this for real it help us all understand our sports better pls like this video for the culture AMEN lol

[@gfsblackout]

And im meant all types of national, international, and cultural sports

[@OStark2010]

Regarding the Hail Mary, in adittion to the completes passes, you also have to consider the forced penalties, offside, roughing the passer, pass interference, etc. that allows that team a new play, that actually score to tie or win the game, so that 2% it goes a bit higher.

[@TooMich]

Look at Chuck rocking that DEEP V-neck

[@seafodder6129]

I thought he accidently put on one of his wife's "in the mood" shirts... ;)

[@ekabaron1115]

I likw the old logo & music intro

[@craigscott2315]

preamble, the Mendle brugh set. Ooh so close, Mandelbrot set.

[@Hallow_Ghost]

I feel special when Neil saying your personal astrophysicist

[@ivanfiodorov6429]

i'm not a fan on sports, honestly i even hate it (to watch, not to play), but gosh, mathematics and statistics are so fun!

[@Alexander-dz3tf]

Hi Niel !!

[@christophercuston]

Chuck just described the music city miracle. While Neil described the Cal-Stanford game.

[@TheaDragonSpirit]

31:22 - There is also things that they will be bad at in college, but with practice they will get better, if they don't do it, and stop doing it, then when faced with a team that has learned how to do it, in the future they will be at a huge disadvantage. So you also have to consider what can end up with them winning more long term, not just short term gain.

[@Elephant_Juice74]

I prefer to see all the guests in frame instead of focusing in on one at a time ✌

[@JustinPayton]

33:55 The Music City Miracle (as Chuck later explains)

[@poopug]

everybody should have their own mathematician

[@Olga-jm5xf]

I do not see Neil interrupting since he is the host, the leader of his show and guests are the ones that need to adapt like in other shows. As long as Neil continues being such a brilliant and fun educator who shares his knowledge freely, any shortcoming Neil or any other genius may have, does not matter to me.

[@gabrielahimsa4387]

lol 4 min in already amazing

[@blasalvice]

I'm convinced that the most important battle we have today as a species is to get rid of superstitions.

[@GinaCarmichael-nd2pt]

Looking good. Healthy and wealthy. You and Chuck Neil.

[@mehdibaghbadran3182]

This is very difficult to explain, for the professional players, it’s necessary to keeping their body conditions, each day’s, better than the day’s before , and the only way is to be with the group!

[@PafMedic]

Chuck Right Out Of The Gate😂😂😂

[@harrytomdick]

this would have been a much better topic if you talked about technical analysis of stock/commodity markets and trading

[@ancientelixir1311]

Do a video on the challenges of colonizing planets outside our galaxy/ solar system.

[@PPTGames]

Just on time

[@TheSolXP]

I can't wait for when the Dickitude Barameter becomes a measurable variable in future social experiments, courtesy of StarTalk.

[@Dr.RichardBanks]

Holy jeebus ive never wanted to not know how a startalk has ended more than I do now...

[@inxpaceplanet7005]

CHUCK AND DEGRAISE ARE STARTALK, JANNA LEVIN WE NEED YOU TOO!! well i say i need Janna, the edge of the universe might be spheric.. blow my mind

[@tigrerasti1299]

Hi, have a nice day.🤗